Local Media on the 2010 Baltimore Orioles

ABC has a new show titled ‘Flash Forward’, where the basic-premise is that everyone on Earth passes-out at exactly the same-time, and sees a glimpse of their future 6 months from now.

Recently, I asked members of the local-media that follow the Baltimore Orioles, to look into the future, and tell me what they see for the O’s 2010 season.

I understand that there are plenty of questions that have yet to be determined. (i.e. Free Agency, Trades, etc). What I asked them to do, is to give their opinions based on what is currently known, and project what they believe will happen.

I provided my thoughts and opinions (which are shown below) to these media-members, and told them that they could respond directly to my thoughts, or add their own.

My overall goal was to capture some of the general-sentiments that exist around town, of where the O’s will be a team in 2010.

It is a lot to read, but I think provides some good-insight from multiple view-points.

Baltimore Sports and Life sincerely appreciates all of the responses provided.

Baltimore Sports and Life’s General Oriole Thoughts heading into 2010:

1) I agreed with the premise that 2009 was never about wins and losses, but always about establishing a core of players to move forward with. In 2010, enough of that core will be in-place that the focus turns to winning games.

2) The horrific stretch of play to end this year has done little to dampen my enthusiasm for the 2010 team. If Jones, Reimold, Bergesen, Matusz, and Mickolio stayed available during all of September, the play would have been improved. I predicted the 2009 O’s to win 72 games, and improve as the season progressed. The fact that the O’s are going to finish with a low 60 win total, means little to me, based on the injuries that occurred, and players that are now in-place.

3) The Orioles received 56 starts from Adam Eaton, Rich Hill, Mark Hendrickson, and Jason Berken in 2009. That is 35% of the overall starts for the season. That will not happen again in 2010. Not just those ‘names’, but receiving that % of starts from pitchers of that quality.

4) Even if a Free Agent starter is not obtained, the rotation by the end of April 2010 figures to consist of Matusz, Tillman, Bergesen, Guthrie, and Arrieta. That is a rotation with legitimate upside that can keep the O’s competitive next-season.

5) Adding Uehara, Mickolio, Berken, and Hernandez to the Oriole bullpen (and combining that with improved starting-pitching) means the O’s can fix their relief-core from within.

5a) Uehara should be announced as the 2010 closer. During 2009, Uehara pitched 66.2 innings, allowing 71 hits, 7 homers, 12 walks, with 48 k’s. He held hitters to a .742 OPS against. Uehara turns 35 next April, and is only signed through 2010. It is clear his future is not in the O’s rotation. In Japan, Uehara spent 2007, and 2008 pitching out of the bullpen: 2008: 89.2 IP, 90 hits, 72 k’s, 16 walks 2007: 62 IP, 47 hits, 66 k’s, 4 walks, 32 saves Knowing he has had past-success in the closer-role and that his control will be strong; is good enough for me to anoint him to that position.

6) The only Free Agent that greatly interests me is John Lackey. Lackey turns 31 this month, and has logged 1,500+ Major League innings. He made 32 starts per year between 2003- 2007, but started the 2008 and 2009 seasons on the DL with arm-strains. He has been on winning teams his entire career with the Angels, and is a Texas native. To put Lackey in an Oriole uniform, you are likely looking at 5yrs, $90M. I can make an argument for the signing, but would completely understand if MacPhail was not interested in a change of his organizational philosophy of ‘Build the arms, Buy the bats.’

7) Markakis, Jones, Wieters, Reimold, and Pie all figure to be better in 2010, than they were in 2009. Roberts and Scott figure to come close to equating their 2009 production. The O’s have long-term answers in-place at RF, CF, C, 2nd, LF, and DH.

8) I am comfortable with Scott / Aubrey, and Wigginton in place as temporary stop-gaps at 1st, and 3rd. However, I fully expect Brandon Snyder to be in-place at 1st by May, and I would like to see Josh Bell take over 3rd by the All-Star break.

9) I think there are 3 factors of why Scott will not be traded this off-season. His contract, Snyder’s lack of power at AAA, and Reimold’s injury. If the team was fully-convinced of Reimold’s health, I think they would trade Scott, and insert Reimold as the every-day DH, with Pie getting the job in LF. With Reimold’s injury, I think they will keep Scott around as insurance. With Scott coming back, they can give Snyder some additional time at AAA, which I think will be their first-choice. If Reimold gets a clean bill of health, and I am wrong about believing the O’s will want Snyder to start at AAA – then you could see Scott moved as part of a package for help at SS.

10) Ceasar Izturis is a good-defensive SS (not exceptional), who can not be a long-term answer. He is not good enough with the glove, to live with his .298 career on-base %, in the American League East. The days of Mark Belanger are gone.

11) By the All-Star break, I think the O’s roster will look like:

Roberts 2nd
Jones CF
Markakis RF
Wieters C
Reimold DH
Pie LF
Snyder 1st
Bell 3rd
Izturis SS

Moeller, Wigginton, Andino, Aubrey / Montanez / Fiorentino

Matusz, Tillman, Bergesen, Guthrie, Arrieta

Uehara
Johnson
Ray
Patton / Waters
Mickolio
Berken
Hernandez

12) Tampa went from 66 wins in 2007, to 97 wins in 2008. I believe the talent exists for the O’s to go from 64 wins in 2009 to 81-85 wins in 2010.

Mr. Phil Wood, from MASN provided some responses to the opinions BSL expressed above:

“Hendrickson had a decent year, all things considered, wants to stay and doesn’t command much $; he’ll likely have a role of some kind, though likely more of a situational guy. Arrieta needs to have a super spring and Bergesen needs to show he’s not gunshy on the mound after getting whacked. If Lackey goes anywhere, I suspect it will be Texas. His all-time idol is Nolan Ryan, and if Ryan is still running the show down there, he’ll be an attraction for the Rangers. You’re far too optimistic about Bell & Snyder. Aubrey made a decent case for himself in September. I expect a veteran corner infielder will be obtained via trade or free agency this winter on a short term deal. I agree entirely about Cesar Izturis. Arrieta is far from a lock to make the club next spring. They’re willing to part with a young arm or two to acquire a legit big league starting pitcher. Uehara his future is in the bullpen, but committing to him as the closer now is a total crapshoot. Johnson would prefer to be a starter, and may have the makeup more for that role than a reliever. Ray this guy has a lot to prove next spring. Patton / Waters one’s a huge question mark and the other a major longshot Mickolio very, very high ceiling.

I see their 2010 win total somewhere in the mid-70’s. It looks like you’ve got them almost standing pat going into 2010, and have virtually all of their prospects turning into productive major leaguers. That’s tempting fate and defying history.”

Mr. Wood’s MASN colleague Mr. Steve Meleweski also provided his thoughts:

“The most exciting thing for me about the 2010 Orioles is that the young talent that joined the club this year will all be with the O’s from the start of the season. They have all learned what it takes to play in the Majors and all seemed excited to make off-season improvements leading to better production from each in 2010. How much better could the rotation be with Matusz, Tillman and Bergesen making 30 plus starts each? This season, Bergy made 19, Tillman 12 and Matusz 8. That’s about 50-60 more starts from that trio. There is improvement right there, I believe. Add to that a healthy Reimold and Jones playing all season and Wieters there for six months, not four. The team still has holes and questions, but this young talent is finally legit and should lead the O’s to better days. One thing to add about the threesome of Bergesen, Tillman and Matusz. The O’s went 19-20 this year when any of the three started. That was on a 98-loss team. That threesome made 39 starts last year and should make 90 if healthy this coming year.”

Mr. Marc Unger, from The Fighting Ungers on Fox1370, stated:

“The orioles were a bit more disappointing in 09 than I’d hoped. I get the rebuilding thing but what bothered me more than anything else were the mental mistakes. The baserunning blunders. Throwing to the wrong base, etc. Keep hearing about Trembley and his ability to develop young talent. Learn the fundamentals! In the AL East there is very little room for error. I believe you could find 8-10 more wins in 09 if you took away mistakes. In 2010 Orioles need one more big bat and a pitcher to eat up innings who’s under the age of 32. This team will be picked last in the division and it will take great managing, proper use of talent and guys finally putting together COMPLETE seasons to get the Os out of the basement. Almost without exception, the best teams play solid fundamental baseball. Let’s hope the Os can do the same. I can promise you this, Dave Trembley’s 2010 tenure will be reevaluated every couple of months. If they’re last in late May, he’s gone. And rightfully so.”

Fellow Fox1370 Radio host Mr. Rob Long gave the following comments:

“The off-season of 2009 will be a very interesting one. The O’s will make some moves, and many of them will come via trade.

Some this all of the pitchers who we’ve heard about will be apart of this organization, but Andy McPhail believes, you develop arms and buy bats. If you do that, you’ll have to use some of the arms to buy some bats.

With that being said, look for McPhail to protect Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Jake Arietta and company, but some of those young arms might get “dangled” in a trade.

I believe this team will have a veteran on the corner of the infield not named Mora or Scott. With the exception of the costly Adrian Gonzalez, look for the club to grab someone via a trade.

I think the team will snag a “B” level pitcher in the off-season as well. I cannot even begin to tell you who that might be, but it could happen via a trade or the O’s could throw some money at free agent to be John Lackey. Either way, this staff isn’t going to be as young as some might thing in 2010.

2010 Line-up:

1. Roberts. 2nd
2. Jones. CF
3. Markakis. RF
4. Free Agent
5. Wieters. C
6. FA/Trade
7. Reimold. LF
8. Scott. DH
9. Izturis. SS They will find at-bats for Pie if not traded.

2010 Rotation

1. FA/Trade
2. Matusz
3. Tillman
4. Bergesen
5. Guthrie / Hernandez Either Guthrie or Hernandez will pitch in relief along with youngsters a one or two acquisitions. Look for Jake Arietta to make his debut and make his way into the rotation.”

Mr. Jerry Coleman, also a host on Fox1370, succinctly stated:

“I see the Birds building around their nucleus( Matusz, Markakis, Jones, Weiters, Roberts etc) – they need to add some power, a proven veteran starter, and re-vamp their bullpen….which will take spending some $ ( which i think Mcphail will do ).”

From further-up the radio-dial, Comcast Morning Show Host, Mr. Drew Forrester of WNST 1570 added his input:

“On October 7, 2009, there is no possible way for me to make any prediction on the Orioles for 2010. Are they going to sign a 3rd baseman or a 1st baseman in the off-season? Are they going to trade for a 3rd baseman or a 1st baseman in the off-season? If they trade with someone, who are they giving up? Brad Bergesen? Nolan Reimold? Chris Tillman? Who’s going to close for the team in 2010? Who’s in the bullpen? Will they refurbish the relief corps and, if so, by adding who to their staff? Who’s going to DH for the team in 2010? Will any of their players get busted for steroids in the off-season and be suspended to start the season? Will they strategically cut a player’s salary again 3 weeks prior to the start of the 2010 season like they did to Jeremy Guthrie last March and then watch him take four months to get out of his funk?
Without answers to any of those questions, I have no idea how the Orioles will do next season. That would be like asking me to tell you how Tom Cruise’s July 2010 film is going to turn out. I have no idea…who’s the supporting cast? What’s the movie about? How’s Cruise’s personal life these days? Is he ready to bounce back from a mid-career slump and earn the $25 million per-film he demands?
I know this: they can’t POSSIBLY be worse than that outfit they tortured us with in 2009, particularly in the final 40 games or so when they obviously threw in the towel in an effort to get the 2nd pick in the 2010 draft. They should be ashamed of themselves for putting that product on the field in September and charging people money. That said, there’s no way 2010 will be worse than 2009. It just can’t be.
Check back with me in January or February and I’ll give you a better prediction on what the team will do. Let’s see how November and December play out. It’s up to them to prove to the fans that they’re going to try and win in 2010. They obviously WEREN’T trying in 2009, by their own admission.”

Mr. Forrester’s WNST colleague is the mid-day host Mr. Bob Haynie. Haynie added the following:

“This is a big off-season for Andy MacPhail and the Orioles because 2010 needs to be a season that is actually about winning games. Developing and bringing along the young players is nice, but it’s time to concentrate on improving in the standings. It’s obvious that Baltimore needs to upgrade in a couple of areas. Adding a big bat is a must. Whether it’s via trade or free-agency, getting a proven run producer–or two–is an absolute necessity. A quality, veteran starting pitcher would be helpful. Jeremy Guthrie isn’t a bad pitcher. But he’s not an ace either. Of course the bullpen needs all kinds of help. Now that the Orioles have stockpiled some young players, it might be time to see what their value is on the open market. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next few months.”

Mr. Tony Pente is the Founder and Executive Managing Editor of Orioles Hangout. (http://orioleshangout.com/) When asked his thoughts of the 2010 O’s, Mr. Pente stated:

“The 2010 season is a pivotal year in the MacPhail rebuilding plan because it should be the first year the Orioles need to show some results in the win-loss column. The rotation will have Matusz, Bergesen and Tillman for an entire year and Jake Arrieta should get an opportunity to compete for a rotation spot in the spring. The Orioles would still like to add a veteran starter to anchor that young starting rotation but outside of Lackey there’s not a lot of free agent options. Matt Wieters will anchor the lineup, but the Orioles will need to add power at the corner positions, while the outfield should be set. The O’s need the young starters to take a step forward and the bullpen will need to be completely remade. Nick Markakis needs a bounce back season and Adam Jones needs to be the Jones of the first half, not the second. I don’t expect the Orioles to compete next year, but the team needs to finish over .500 and show promise of being a contender by 2011.”

Mr. Pente’s Co-Managing Editor is Mr. Scott Hoffman, who also graciously contributed with his thoughts:

“Assuming six months from now would mean the first week in April. I see an off-season that is met with moderately mixed emotions by fans due to the signings and trades that the Orioles did and did not pull off. The San Diego Padres’ asking price that included both Chris Tillman and Nolan Reimold for the services of 26-year-old first baseman/slugger Adrian Gonzalez proved to be too rich for Orioles’ President of Baseball Operations Andy MacPhail’s blood.

O’s fans were also disappointed that, after declining to pick up Melvin Mora’s option for 2010, the club chose to relegate Ty Wigginton as the everyday third baseman (versus seeking help via trade/free agency) while highly-touted prospect Josh Bell continues his development as he focuses on improving his peformance against left-handed pitching.

So what if anything did the Orioles do to upgrade this off-season? Holding true to his word, MacPhail opened the Warehouse wallet and inked 30-year old free agent outfielder Matt Holliday to a 4 year, $70 million contract. Orioles’ manager Dave Trembley expects Holliday, Reimold, and 4th outfielder Felix Pie to share DH and left field duties. Holliday will also see time at first base along with ’09 newcomer Michael Aubrey.

MacPhail also solidified the top end of the Orioles’ rotation, going against his “grow the arms, buy the bats” mantra and acknowledging the team’s desperate need for a high-quality, veteran presence at the top of the rotation by signing John Lackey to a 5 year, $82 million contract. Starters in 2009, pitchers David Hernandez and Jason Berken have been relegated to the bullpen for the 2010 season. While the players themselves may view this as a demotion of sorts, the move represents a huge upgrade and the bolster to the bullpen the O’s needed. Dennis Sarfate and Mark Hendrickson both return. Koji Uehara, Jim Johnson, and Kam Mickolio all competed so well in Spring Training for the closer’s role that Trembley will use the three in a “set-up/closer-by-committee” role until one of them establishes themselves as the clear closer. The starting rotation sorted out as a lot of O’s fans expected: Lackey, Brian Matusz, Brad Bergesen, Jeremy Guthrie, and Chris Tillman. What does this mean for the Orioles in 2010? For one, it appears that Trembley has been given the slugger in Holliday and the front-end starter in Lackey that he needed in order to keep the O’s competitive. With Reimold, Pie, and Matt Wieters all a year older and wiser, the club just might surprise pundits by ending their 12-year losing streak with a winning season. It all may not translate into a post-season caliber performance, but Orioles fans may look back on 2009 as the end of the ‘Decade of Losing’. ”

Mr. David Ginsburg reports on the Orioles for The Associated Press. He provided the following-comments:

“I believe the Orioles will show improvement in 2010, mainly because of the young starting rotation, but there will be growing pains there and I have serious questions about the makeup of the bullpen. I also wonder if MacPhail can get someone at 1st and/or 3rd. Wigginton strikes out too often to be a regular at either position, and there isn’t anyone in the minors good enough to be a regular.”

The operators of Camden Depot (http://camdendepot.com/provided response to my opinions:

1) “I think you are correct in that much of the core group is present. Our OF has found solutions in Markakis, Jones, Reimold, and Pie. Our infield has a short term solution at 2B and Izturis is passable as a weak partner at short. The infield corners are bereft of talent at the MLB level though we have a couple promising parts in the high minors, though neither Bell nor Snyder has shown competency at Norfolk. At catcher, we have Wieters. The rotation appears to have several solutions as well. This is a solid group of young players. The problem I see with going all out to win is that as is we are probably a 75 win team. An 80 win team if players rebound, do not degrade, and all young guys show positive development. 80 wins is pretty optimistic. In this case, what Camden Depot would see as prudent in winning games is to acquire two kinds of players: 1) cheap, short term, high upside players or 2) elite, long term, position players. The likelihood of getting into the playoffs is low for next year, so signing a top tier pitcher (e.g. John Lackey) to an expensive long term contract will probably result in not being enough to make the playoffs next year, having 15-18MM tied up in a player and not in player development, as well as devoting money and a lengthy contract to a pitcher who is more likely to breakdown or become ineffective. Being saddled with a large sunk cost with a pitcher is just not ideal for a young team. It may prove restrictive in acquiring pieces in the future in order to compete. Ideally, you sign a pitcher like that when you are sure you have a great chance to compete in the upcoming year. The 2011 starting pitching market is as fruitful if not more so with Beckett, Halladay, Blanton, Bonderman, Millwood, and Vazquez available. Unfortunately, the current market just does not have much in the way of useful positional prospects available. Jason Bay would be a solid addition at DH, but there now seems to be a general reappraisal of the value of DHs. That means that in the near future there will probably be plenty of DHs available on the cheap each year.

2) As much as we might be maligned for saying it, unless you believe clutch hitting is a skill . . . the Orioles were somewhat unlucky last year. During late and close situations the Orioles had an OPS of 593, which is substantially below their seasonal mark of 747 and only beaten by the Seattle Mariners. So, we are more inclined to believe the Orioles talent level this year was more in line with their Pythagorean or WARP projected win total of 69 wins instead of 64 wins. That should not serve as much consolation for this season, but should indicate that with full season efforts from all of our young players . . . the Orioles should be a better team next year. Of course, assuming everyone stays injury free is a major assumption given the track record of players like Reimold and Pie.

3) Hopefully pitching of that quality will not take up so many starts in 2010. I am not sure if we know this to be true though. We do not know which direction Guthrie is heading. He has been trending downward ever since his first year here. Tillman and Matusz both look good, but injuries happen. Bergesen’s curveball makes him a much better pitcher, but probably not as good as he appeared last season. He peripherals were lagging. The truth is that most teams have to put up with a great deal of substandard pitching over the course of a season. The question becomes whether or not we have sufficient depth to provide bad, but not horrible starts. I imagine that some combination of Berken, Hendrickson, Hernandez, and Arrieta will see a large number of starts next year. This group appears far more promising than what we used this season, but I would not call it a certainty.

4) Yes, this is a rotation with legitimate upside. I do doubt that Arrieta will be called up prior to June. They will most likely want him to have a better performance at Norfolk before promoting him. The only chance would be if blew people away in Spring Training — and even then you’re likely to see him log a handful of starts at Norfolk (unless Hernandez is already in the pen by that point).

5) Yes, we see things the same from our end. Additionally, arms like Erbe, Patton and even Britton could log bullpen innings next year as an introduction to the Bigs. In fact, at Camden Depot we’ve [Nick and Jon] both agreed there are strong arguments for Patton and Erbe ultimately ending up in relief — which isn’t necessarily a bad thing.5a) [Jon answering] I don’t know if I will be anointing anyone, but, yes, I think he would be ideal as a closer. I imagine there will be competition coming in the Spring as there was a reasonable level of concern about pain he was feeling in his arm at the end of the season. But, yes, he should be given every opportunity to show his arm is solid and that he can close. Outside of that, I could see either using in house options for competition or going out of house with a guy who has some closer experience, but is fine in a setup or middle relief role. I could see Joe Beimel, Will Ohman, Octavio Dotel, Chad Cordero, Fernando Rodney, Kevin Gregg, or Mike Gonzalez trying to do that. Whoever would be cheap would be my preference.

6) [Jon answering] The problem I see with Lackey is that we need to immediately receive useful production. If we are fielding a .500 team . . . it does not matter what he does, that is a wasted contract year and wasted money that could be spent on player development. I don’t see purchasing a pitcher at this juncture to make much sense. Same thing about trading for a pitcher of his caliber. Position player, yes; but not a pitcher. A top of the rotation pitcher is a commodity that is highly priced and highly volatile. Pitchers break down or become ineffective with greater regularity. Being saddled with a sunk cost of 15-18MM a year will inhibit payroll flexibility to replace his production or find other complements when the team is ready to compete. A problem I have with Lackey specifically is that he is missing less bats with his fastball, he is relying far more on his breaking balls (nearly 40% now), and he has been on the DL these past to seasons with a sore elbow. Those are a lot of red flags. He may be completely sound and fit, but those are definitely point of concern. Even if I was to take a risk and sign a top of the rotation pitcher, I would prefer someone with less mileage on his arm as well as someone who does not have a medical file that raises questions and prevent insurance being issued on that body part.

7) This is apparently the case, but it should be mentioned that Roberts is now entering a delicate phase of his career. Historically, most 2B fall apart at 32 or shortly thereafter. Roberts defense (particularly his side to side movement) has been trending downward for four or five seasons now. I also think expecting all of these players to maintain, rebound, or hit their development peaks might be optimistic. Markakis should rebound and Wieters looks to break out next season. There are questions about Jones, Reimold, and Pie. Scott is about average for a DH. Compare our positions to others in the AL East and the Orioles look like they may need more seasoning to start challenging them one for one.

8) We disagree a bit, though Snyder could certainly log significant innings at some point in 2010. Still, we think you are being optimistic here. Snyder would need to show a level of development he did not show at Norfolk, which isn’t impossible, but likewise probably shouldn’t be expected. I [Nick] see him earning his meals gap-to-gap with solid average ML power. More could develop, but I’m not sure I see him flipping a switch once in Baltimore and becoming a 25 HR guy. Defensively, he is a usable 1B, but not spectacular. Thus far, Bell cannot hit lefties. That is not hyperbole. He literally cannot hit a lefty. As things currently stand, he could be ready by the break to platoon there, but he will likely not be able to be a full time 3B. The wildcard is the Arizona Fall League, and how Baltimore plans on working with him there. Will he give up switch hitting? Will he focus more heavily on his bat from the right side? Time will tell — he’ll be one of the more interesting future Birds to check in on throughout October/November.

9) We generally agree with this sentiment. Scott’s movement is more likely to occur at the break if we are out of it. He is cheap though, so he could stick around.

10) As shortstops go, he is pretty exceptional. Izturis is in the top 10% of defensive shortstops. His offense is poor enough that he is about one win below average. He clearly is not a long term answer at shortstop and after 2010 is more likely to be a useful utility infielder for a competitor who is willing to shell out a few million for a defensive backup. We will need to find a long term solution elsewhere.

11) Maybe. Certainly is possible. The bullpen is probably a little hard to project.

12) Yes, I agree with this assessment. Perhaps it makes more sense to reasonably assume the upper 70s, but I would say that 81-85 is possible.

Mr. Matthew Taylor operates Roar from 34, (http://roarfrom34.blogspot.com/) one of the blogs nominated for a ‘Mobbie’ from The Baltimore Sun, as one of Maryland’s outstanding blogs.

Mr. Taylor’s opinions are:

“The Orioles have wisely taken to the philosophy of building from within for the team’s latest rebuilding effort. It’s a good thing too because there’s not a lot of help out there on the free-agent market this off-season.

Even if there were a greater free-agent bounty to enjoy, the Orioles would have trouble attracting top talent to Charm City based on charm alone. They’re ultimately going to have to overspend for that one marquee free agent who truly signals that the page has turned. However, no amount of money is going to bring that guy to Baltimore if the team is still losing 90-plus games. The team must demonstrate tangible progress at the Major League level before any big-time players will consider signing on.

The good news is there will be tangible progress in 2010.

It all starts with the starting rotation, and the 2010 Orioles will have a markedly improved quintet taking the mound come next season.

Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz will give O’s fans reason for optimism on consecutive nights throughout the season. Jeremy Guthrie and Brad Bergesen are better suited for supporting roles rather than the top spots, and they will provide reliable arms in the middle of the rotation. And we may see some starters from 2009 leading a revamped charge out of the bullpen gate. I’m thinking in particular of Koji and David Hernandez.

On the offensive side there’s no question we need some big bats, but O’s fans will likely have to get comfortable cheering for pitching, defense, and timely hitting. Frank Robinson circa 1966 ain’t walking through that door. With that said, I do expect some “Defining Moments” at the plate in 2010 from Adam Jones and Matt Wieters in particular.

In Conclusion –

One Thing We’re Unlikely to See in 2010: Prince Fielder in Orange and Black.

One Thing I’d Like to See in 2010: Erik Bedard back in Orange and Black. To borrow a popular franchise catchphrase, Why Not?

One Thing We Are Likely to See in 2010: Big things from number 10.”

Last, but certainly not least, are the comments from Ms. Stacey Long of Camden Chat, (http://www.camdenchat.com/ which is also nominated for a Mobbie.

Ms. Long stated:

“My bold prediction for the Orioles is that 2010 will be the year that the Orioles finally reach .500. It’s a sad thing to look forward to that, but when you’re an Orioles fan what are you going to do. Yes, that means they have to win 17 more games which is a huge amount, but I think it can be done. For one their Pythagorean record gave them 69 wins, so if their luck swings along with their talent it’s not that huge of a leap. Andy MacPhail said as soon as the season was over that phase 1 is over and now is the time to start making a change in the standings. I’m going to hold him to that.

Pitching will be the thing in 2010. That’s hardly shocking to the Orioles fans who are paying attention, but it’s important to remember. The success of the season will hinge on Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Brad Bergesen, Jeremy Guthrie, David Hernandez, Jason Berken, Jake Arrieta, and others. I’d like to see an established starting pitcher brought into the fold as well, as Jeremy Guthrie doesn’t seem to have adapted to the veteren role as well as everyone hoped. MacPhail has his “grow the arms” mantra so I’m not holding out much hope. I believe Jake Arrieta will start the season in AAA with a mid-season callup a la Matusz and Tillman this year.

I think Bergesen is going to regress in 2010, but Tillman will get better. Brian Matusz is going to be a monster. The bullpen is going to be a lot better, mostly due to the fact that that the starting pitchers will go deeper into the game, but also because Koji Uehara, David Hernandez, Jason Berken will be there to help out.

The hitting underperformed in 2009 and I expect it will be much better in 2010. Nick Markakis will get his OBP back up around .400 where it belongs and if Adam Jones can stay healthy he’ll continue to improve. Nolan Reimold will be 100% healthy and I’m really looking forward to see what he does in his first full year in the bigs. Matt Wieters looked amazing the last month and he’ll pick up where he left off. Brian Roberts will be Brian Roberts and hopefully Cesar Izturis will remain at the bottom of the lineup where he belongs. That leaves first and third, which as we all know are huge holes.

I don’t have full confidence that Brandon Snyder will be ready in 2010 (or ever, really) but I think Josh Bell will be ready before season’s end. Wiggy will play 3B in the meantime. As for first, Michael Aubrey isn’t a long term answer, but I think that a rotation of Luke Scott, Reimold, Felix Pie, and Aubrey between 1B, LF, and DH will be servicable until something is figured out. Andy MacPhail said they will be bat shoppers in the offseason but unless he’s talking trades I’m not interested. No hitters on the FA market are very interesting. MAYBE Russell Branyan.

Optimistic prediction? O’s in third place in 2010 (sorry TB). Pessemistic prediction? They continue to improve but just can’t get close to the big boys in the AL East and we all get even more discourage.”