With Opening Day now just about a month away, we have reached out to several local writers for their thoughts on the Baltimore Orioles.

Baltimore Sports and Life thanks each of the following writers for taking the time to respond.

Jeff Zrebiec, The Baltimore Sun
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bal-reporter-gallery-jeff-zrebiec,0,1326200.storygallery
http://twitter.com/#!/jeffzrebiecsun

Dave Sheinin, Washington Post
http://projects.washingtonpost.com/staff/articles/dave+sheinin/
http://twitter.com/#!/DaveSheinin

Roch Kubatko: MASN
http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roch/
http://twitter.com/#!/masnRoch

Baltimore Sports and Life: “I think the Orioles rotation is better than advertised, partly with the idea that Tillman, and Britton are ticketed for AAA. You should be able to expect positive production from Matusz and Guthrie at the top of staff, and you should be able to expect league average 4th and 5th starters out of Bergesen, Duchsherer (and Tillman, and Britton). I think the key to the staff is Arrieta. What are your thoughts on Arrieta in-particular, and the rotation in-general?”

Zrebiec: “Arrieta won me over last season. Before he was promoted to the big leagues in 2010, I had only seen him pitch a handful of times in Spring Training and I was never overly impressed. I also didn’t hear too many great things about him from scouts. But I think he showed people something with his confidence, toughness and of course, his talent and ability. He took some bumps as all young pitchers do, but he learned to make adjustments and he rose to the occasion on most nights. I’ve talked to him – and several teammates close to him – this spring and it seems to me that he has really matured and grown into his own skin. He’s also in phenomenal shape. As for the rest of the rotation, I’d probably say that the key is Bergesen. I think he has to say healthy and build off what he did late in the 2010 season. They need him to log innings and quality starts because I think the O’s pretty much know what they are getting from Guthrie and they expect Matusz and Arrieta to take the next step.”

Sheinin: “I’ve been a fan of Arrieta’s since I covered him in the 2008 Beijing Olympics. I’m not smart enough to predict how well he is going to pitch in 2011, or how much he is going to achieve in his career, but I find it interesting that James Shields is among is comparables on baseball-reference.com’s list of “most similar pitchers through age 24.” In the case of Shields, it was his age-25 season (2007) when he had a breakthrough (12-8, 3.85 era, 215 innings). The Orioles would take that in a heartbeat.”

Kubatko: “Arrieta’s stock is most definitely on the rise. The bone spur in his elbow was a concern, but he insists that surgery isn’t necessary. The Orioles love his bulldog mentality. No fear. And he seems to be more accepted in the clubhouse this spring. He seems to be more highly regarded than Tillman in the organization, though perhaps a notch below Matusz. There’s a lot to like about Arrieta. The rotation has the potential to be very good, but only if the young starters take the next step. It’s not like there are lot of proven commodities here. Guthrie isn’t really a No. 1 in the truest sense, but how many of them actually exist in baseball? Duchscherer could make this rotation much better if he holds up, but can he? He’s already dealing with some hip soreness. Britton will be ready at some point this summer.Tillman still has a lot to prove. The age excuse will only hold up for so long.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “It appears that VandenHurk, Accardo, Hendrickson, Rosario, and Rapada are competing for the last two spots in the bullpen. I figure the O’s look to make a deal with Milwaukee to keep Rosario, but off the 25 man roster. The Orioles figure to keep a second lefty, so the choice is Hendrickson and his ability to provide multiple-innings, or Rapada as a true LOOGY. VandenHurk, and Accardo are both out of options. When Accardo signed, the AP reported he signed a split-contract. Which of the two players above do you see joining Uehara, Gonzalez, Gregg, Johnson, and Berken when the season starts?”

Zrebiec: “I agree with your assessment that assuming everyone stays healthy, five spots are set with Uehara, Gonzalez, Gregg, JJ and Berken. The way I see it (and again injuries nothwithstanding), Jeremy Accardo, Adrian Rosario, Rick VandenHurk, Clay Rapada, David Riske and Mark Hendrickson are competing for the two spots. I assume that Showalter will want a second lefty, meaning it’s between Hendrickson and Rapada and I think Hendrickson may be the edge there because of his versatility. While Berken could serve as the long guy, I’m sure they won’t want to tax him too much with his injury history, meaning Hendrickson could be the second long guy. And if I had to pick the other, I’d probably project Accardo because I think he has really good stuff when he’s healthy. It has a chance to be a very good bullpen, but five of the seven projected members have had significant injury issues recently. So health has to be the biggest concern.”

Sheinin: “I have no idea.”

Kubatko: “I expect Hendrickson and Accardo to make it, but that’s not etched in stone. Rapada could beat out Hendrickson for the reason you listed. He’s more of a specialist. However, Showalter needs more guys who can go multiple innings. Hendrickson fits the description. Don’t forget about David Riske. He could be the guy who beats out Accardo. I wouldn’t be shocked if Rosario ends up back in Milwaukee and Pat Egan is back in the Orioles’ system. On paper, this could be a very good bullpen. But yes, there are some health concerns. Koji hasn’t exactly been durable. Jim Johnson’s elbow could flare up. Same with Jason Berken’s shoulder. Michael Gonzalez appears to be healthy, but I’m still having flashbacks to last March and April.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Should the Orioles be pursuing a 2-3 year extension with Hardy now? Knowing that Hardy played just 115 games in ’09, and 101 games in ’10, do you think the O’s want to see Hardy show an ability to stay on the field during ’11 before offering an extension?”

Zrebiec: “First of all, that has to work both ways and Hardy wants to get a feel fro the situation, his new teammates and the franchise as a whole, too. With Hardy’s injury history and his inconsistent production over the last couple of seasons, I have no problem with the Orioles waiting to see what they have with Hardy. He’s coming off some wrist problems, too. The best case scenario is Hardy has a good first half and the Orioles lock him up for a couple of more years before hits free agency.”

Sheinin: “It really doesn’t matter if Hardy shows an ability to stay on the field this year. When a player has an injury history as extensive as Hardy’s, it means he’s an injury risk, period – even if he manages to stay relatively healthy for four or five months at a time. The decision as to whether to offer Hardy an extension should hinge on other issues: How does he fit into the lineup? How does his game play at Camden Yards? How does he fit within Showalter’s clubhouse? How long until Machado arrives?”

Kubatko: “I can’t imagine the Orioles offering Hardy an extension without taking a long look at him. And hardy might not be looking to commit to the Orioles right away, especially if they’re headed to a 14th straight losing season. Hardy also is a guy who could be flipped at the non-waiver trade deadline if a contender is willing to give up something for him.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “After averaging 157 games played during the ’07-’09 seasons, Roberts was obviously limited to just 59 games in 2010. Roberts was held out a few days with a sore neck, that he deemed to be not-serious. (X-Rays said the same.) The panic generated still illustrated how crippling it would be to lose the 33 year-old 2nd baseman for any extended period of time. With Roberts signed through ’13, do you see the Orioles trying to be more judicious with his rest? Maybe try and limit him to 135 games?”

Zrebiec: “I’ve asked that question and Showalter hasn’t been too forthcoming. Part of that might be that Roberts, when healthy, doesn’t want to come out of the lineup at all so Showalter probably doesn’t want to make any grand declarations. But with that being said, I do see Showalter trying to mix in some days off for Roberts. I’m not going to narrow it down to a specific number because that all depends on his aches and pains throughout the year. I hate to spend so much time in my daily beat coverage on Roberts’ health. He obviously tires of the questions as well. But his presence in the lineup is so important so you can’t ignore it, even if it’s something as routine as a stiff neck.”

Sheinin: “Obviously, you want to rest your veterans where you can, but I don’t know that you want to put a number on Roberts’ playing time in advance. You have to feel him out, week by week, and determine what sort of handling he needs.”

Kubatko: “Roberts will dictate how much he plays, but it makes sense to me to rest him a little more. He might be the most irreplaceable guy in the lineup. They need him atop the order. You don’t want Cesar Izturis playing everyday at second base, though he’s looked pretty good over there so far. There isn’t an obvious lead-off candidate if Roberts goes down. Guys might be moved up in the lineup and taken out of more advantageous slots. The Orioles need to keep Roberts in one piece.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “I’m expecting the O’s to carry a bench of Pie, Izturis, Fox, and Tatum. Any chance the Orioles only carry Fox as the back-up Catcher, and keep one of the other UTI candidates (Andino, Harris, Green)? Any reports of if Snyder has increased his chances by again picking up the Catching gear?”

Zrebiec: “There is a chance of Fox winning the backup catcher job but Showalter talks all the time about the importance of game calling and strong defense behind the plate so I’d say that Tatum is significantly ahead of Fox. I think Fox’s versatility makes him the favorite to get that final bench spot, but I wouldn’t count out Harris, Andino, or Nick Green by any stretch. Andino made a real good impression on Showalter last season. In the long run, Snyder may help his chances by adding catching to his repertoire, but I don’t see ihm as a candidate to make the Opening Day roster barring a slew of injuries.”

Sheinin: “The Orioles wouldn’t have had Snyder go back to catching if they weren’t thinking about putting him on the roster. But I have no inside knowledge as to how this will play out.”

Kubatko: “Fox has a chance to beat out Tatum. Showalter must decide which guy is better behind the plate and better at calling a game and working with the young pitchers. I like the idea of keeping Fox as a second utility guy, since he can play multiple positions and occasionally run into a fastball. But he’s not a solid glove at any spot. Showalter really seems to like Andino, but I’ve never viewed him as a third baseman. Green didn’t look like one in the exhibition opener (two errors) but I won’t be too quick to judge him. Snyder will start the year at Triple-A Norfolk. No chance he makes the game out of spring training.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Showalter has stated there are ways that Reimold and Bell could make the team. It is hard to imagine a scenario where the O’s would carry either, when they can both play everyday at AAA. Bell obviously needs regular at-bats to be working on his plate-discipline. After a lost ’10, Reimold obviously needs to again produce and await a further opportunity. With Lee signed just for ’11, and Reynolds signed for ’12 with a ’13 option, will Reimold and Bell get time manning 1st at Norfolk?”

Zrebiec: “I wouldn’t expect Showalter to say anything less than Bell and Reimold have a chance to make the club. Both of them worked their butt off this off-season, got in great shape and appear to be in good shape to have big springs. The last thing you’d want after that is for them to be given no chance to make the Opening Day roster. However, the reality is that it is likely both start at Triple-A, Reimold in left and Bell at third baes. It wouldn’t surprise me if Bell gets some time at first, but I don’t necessarily see that with Reimold. His stint there last season didn’t go well which is to be expected for a guy that hadn’t played the position in years. I just don’t think the club feels first base is a good fit for him and his abilities.”

Sheinin: “No idea.”

Kubatko: “It’s possible, though Brandon Snyder is the likely starter there, and don’t forget about Joe Mahoney. It could get a little crowded there. Whatever happened to Rhyne Hughes? Anyway, it would make sense to give both players time at first, but it sure looks to me like Reimold could use a lot more time in left. He still has trouble taking proper routes and tracking the ball. At least he’s moving better now that his Achilles is healthy.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “In their organizational reviews, Keith Law / ESPN ranked the O’s 24th overall, and Baseball America ranked the O’s 21st. The Orioles have been hurt by both their lack of compensatory draft-picks, and International talent. O’s Amateur Scouting Director Joe Jordan confirmed the O’s spent $8.8M towards the 2009 MLB Amateur draft, and similar dollars towards the 2010 MLB Amateur draft. Has there been any indication of David Stockstill’s International Scouting Department budget? Should Jordan’s budget be dramatically increased ($15M?) for the upcoming June Draft?”

Zrebiec: “Well, the proof is in the pudding and the Orioles haven’t signed any top international talent so it’s fair to say the budget is pretty much nonexistent. You hear from time-to-time about the Orioles signing a handful of Dominican amateur free agents or whatever. But it’s about quality not quantity. They really haven’t signed any of the big-ticket, big-bonus players and until they do, I don’t think you can take their “commitment” to securing international talent seriously. As for Jordan’s budget, I’ll take him at his word and he has always said that the money has been available to him to sign the players that he wants to sign. I don’t see that changing. It’s not about the money Jordan has to spend. It is very much about making the right pick.”

Sheinin: “Yes.”

Kubatko: “I haven’t heard anything about David Stockstill’s budget. The Orioles have allowed Jordan to spend in the draft (yeah, yeah, I know… Matt Hobgood. But look beyond the first round in recent years.) It’s not my money, so I’d like to see them throw lots of it around. Draft picks, free agents, the guys who blog for MASN, etc.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Do you expect Andy MacPhail to have his contract extended as the Orioles President of Baseball Operations?”

Zrebiec: “I think the Orioles’ performance this year will go a long way toward answering that question. If the Orioles have another really poor season in terms of wins/loss record, I don’t know that Andy will be back. But if I had to give you an answer before the 2011 season unfolds, I’d predict that he’ll get an extension if he wants one. Peter Angelos remains very supportive of him and MacPhail and Showalter appear to be getting along and working together really well. I also think most people in baseball feel that MacPhail has shepherded the Orioles through a very difficult process that they had to go through and deserves an opportunity to see it through. That’s kind of where I sit as of now but I do want to see what happens this year. MacPhail was in a very tough spot, taking over a team with a lot of prohibitive contracts and not a whole lot of talent. He’s done some real good things, made a couple of nice trades and his patience in not burdening the organization with all these bad contracts just to win a few more games is admirable. I’d like to see him be more aggressive in free agency and spend more time and resources in scouting and player development (that includes international obviously). And ultimately, MacPhail will be the first to tell you that it’s about wins and losses and the Orioles haven’t won enough games during MacPhail’s tenure. But let’s see what happens this year. I don’t think I’m going out on a limb in saying that the team is headed in the right direction.”

Sheinin: “Yes, and yes.”

Kubatko: “Let’s see what happens this season, and whether he has an opportunity to do something else. Say in the commissioner’s office.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “The O’s were 37-37 in their last 74 games last season, with a 4.13 ERA. After Showalter took over, the O’s had 36 Quality Starts in 57 games with a 3.16 ERA. The O’s have now majorly upgraded at 1st, SS, 3rd, and LF. To me, it should be realistic for this team to compile a 4.20 team era, and score 115+ more runs. As is, I think their legitimate (median case) prospects are between 81-85 wins. Looking at the current roster, would record would you predict for the Orioles in 2011?”

Zrebiec: “I said during the media forum at FanFest that an awful lot would have to go right for the Orioles to finish .500, and I predicted that the team would win about 75 games. That was before they signed Vladimir Guerrero. I think Guerrero makes them better obviously, but I’m not going to get away from my initial prediction too much. I think they’ll win somewhere around 78 or 80 games.”

Sheinin: “79-83.”

Kubatko: “The 81-85 win range isn’t outrageous. But there are just so many variables with a club that’s counting so heavily on its young starters and on veterans who are coming off injuries and/or need bounce-back years. How do we know whether Derrek Lee’s thumb was the sole reason for his declining numbers? How do we know whether J.J. Hardy can return to his 20-plus home run days? Duchscherer made five starts last season. He’s had three hip surgeries. Mark Reynolds could hit 40 homers and strike out 250 times. The Orioles say he won’t hit .198 again. How do they know? Why didn’t more teams want a future Hall of Famer (Vladimir Guerrero) who hit .300 and drove in 115 runs? Is Matt Wieters ready to be Joe Mauer? Jason Varitek? How about Buster Posey? How about the Matt Wieters that every scout in baseball anticipated? He hasn’t shown up yet.”

Note from Baltimore Sports and Life:
If this is your first time visiting BSL, you may also be interested in some of our previous Orioles Q&A’s:

National Writers Discuss The Baltimore Orioles 2

https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=2032

National Writers Discuss The Baltimore Orioles
https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=1880

Sabermetricians Discuss The Baltimore Orioles
https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=1753

Q&A w/ Other AL East Blogs
https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=2120

Chris Stoner
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Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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