Logical arguments Poor arguments

With every move that occurs throughout Major League Baseball, the angst among fans of the Baltimore Orioles seems to increase.

In this digital age, you can find comments and opinions everywhere. Yesterday news broke of the contingent trade of Adrian Gonzalez to the Boston Red Sox. I learned of this by watching the scroll on ESPN. Upon signing on-line, I saw immediate commentary on that move on Orioles message boards, Facebook, and Twitter. When events like that happen, you see logical points made by a few, and you see a lot of poor points by others.

You might have been told there are no stupid questions, but I am here to tell you that very limited points of view can be found everywhere. Below I will identify and discuss some arguments I think are logical and some arguments I believe are poor. If you agree or disagree, I would like to hear your rationale.

Logical argument: “The O’s need to improve at 1st.”

This a ‘Logical’ argument because: There are multiple avenues available at 1st, and it is obviously a position of need. My choice remains Derek Lee on a 2 year deal. At 35, obviously he is not a long-term answer. However, he had a monster 2009, and hit in the 2nd-half of 2010 when healthy. He would not cost the O’s a compensatory pick to sign him. He should be a player that can realistically be obtained.

If you lose out on Lee, I would be fine with either Pena, or LaRoche. Konerko would be lower on my list, because it would cost the O’s the draft compensation pick, and also because his production would figure to be closer to his 2008, and 2009 levels vs. the monster year he had in 2010. Still, if the O’s were able to convince him to come here vs. staying in Chicago, I could get behind that move. Regardless, there are multiple names available at 1st, that would provide an upgrade and the O’s have to obtain one.

Poor argument: “Adam Dunn and Victor Martinez not signing with the Orioles is further indication that top Free Agents will never come to Baltimore.”

This is a ‘Poor’ argument because: Using the term ‘never’ as a definitive statement about the future is the definition of poor. Today in December 2010, the O’s will have to pay an ‘Oriole’ tax to lure any Free Agent of substance to Baltimore. That does not mean that will always be the case. You can not hide from 13 consecutive losing seasons. That losing has convinced plenty that the O’s can not compete. You can change the perception of the franchise based on what you do internally as an organization. If you have some success with the pieces you put together, you be more attractive to external options.

Poor argument: “The O’s should have offered more to Victor Martinez.”

This is a ‘Poor’ argument because: Victor Martinez signed a 4 year $52M dollar deal with the Detroit Tigers, after being offered 4 year $48M dollar deal with Baltimore. I like Martinez a lot, and thought that he could help this team. I personally think that if he had spent the next few years at 1st, he would have a good chance to maintain his offensive production longer. The O’s made a legitimate offer for a guy that is 32 yrs old, and has 1,000 games under his belt. He wanted to continue catching full-time (not going to happen here) and he also gained the opportunity to play with some fellow Venezuelans. By most objective analysis, the O’s offered him more years and money than he deserved to play 1st.

Poor argument: “The O’s should have made Adam Dunn a larger priority.”

This is a ‘Poor’ argument because: I wanted the O’s to sign Dunn two seasons ago, when he was a bargain contract for the Nationals at 2 yrs $20M. I think the O’s made a mistake by not signing him at that time. Same age, and similar offensive production to Mark Teixeira. If the White Sox resign Konerko, and Dunn effectively becomes the DH – than I will be disappointed with the 4 year $40M offer the O’s provided. If the O’s were told that Dunn would only be willing to play 1st in Baltimore, that offer was appropriate. You can not just discount his defense at 1st, especially when other options exist at the position. If he is willing to DH for Chicago, that does not necessarily mean he would be willing to DH for the O’s.

Poor argument: “Now that the Adrian Gonzalez trade to Boston has fallen through, the O’s should trade for him.”

This is a ‘Poor’ argument because: I strongly disagree with anyone that thinks the O’s should obtain him via trade. Gonzalez is an impact player, that would light things up at OPACY. That does not mean it made sense to trade for him. Boston was in position to give up multiple high-end prospects. The O’s are trying to build an organization that can contend with regularity. For the O’s to regularly compete against the resources of New York and Boston, they will need as many cheap and productive players as possible. Giving-up 2 out of 3 of Arrieta, Tillman, and Britton (and adding on to the package from there) would be required from Baltimore.  That would be a poor move for the O’s. Besides, Gonzalez was unwilling to extend his contract with the Red Sox, so what makes anyone think he would extend here?”

Logical argument: “The O’s need to improve at 3rd.”

This is a ‘Logical’ argument because: While there are less options existing for the O’s at 3rd vs. at 1st, there are options. With Boston’s trade for Gonzalez falling through, Beltre figures to return to the Red Sox. Beltre recently stated all things being equal, he would like to return to Boston but that the number of years he receives is what is most important to him. Based on that comment, I think the idea that he is set on the West Coast was overblown. I would not pay the $90M over 5 years I think it might take to bring Beltre to Baltimore, but I would have no problem offering 5 years at $70-$75M, and making him turn that down. It will be interesting to see how many years Boston is willing to offer him to return.

Ultimately obtaining Beltre is probably a pipe-dream, which is fine. It has become apparent that Mark Reynolds is there for the taking. I’m not giving up Chris Tillman for him. I’d rather not give up David Hernandez for him. The O’s should absolutely be able to find a package that is suitable to Arizona, that brings Reynolds to Baltimore. He does not come without risk, but there is plenty of upside there. Signed for 2 years, with an option for 2013 (either a $500k team buyout, or $11M) he really needs to be obtained.

Poor argument: “The O’s should give Beltre what it takes for him to wear the Orange and Black.”

This is a ‘Poor’ argument because: Beltre is a very good player, with his most of his valued tied to his defense. You should make a legitimate offer for him, and it is fine to ‘over-spend,’ some pay the ‘Oriole’ tax. I accounted for that in the 5 year $70-$75M bid I suggested above. While he is very good, Beltre is not a franchise player and you can not give him a blank check.

Poor argument: “The richer get richer, and the O’s will never be able to compete.”

This is a ‘Poor’ argument because: The financial advantages of the Yankees, and Boston will always allow those teams to reload. It is debatable how much those teams can be ‘improved.’ In a 162 game season you can always expect to win at-least 54 games, lose at-least 54 games, and have an additional 54 games where your season will be determined. In my-mind, you can expect NY and the Red Sox to win 90 games every year. The O’s don’t have to operate with NY and Boston in-mind, they have to operate with the goal of building a consistent 90 win team. As the O’s improve, those divisional opponents will win less.

Poor argument: “The Orioles do not want to improve.”

This is a ‘Poor’ argument because: The Baltimore Orioles are a business, and would like to maximize their revenue. While I believe MASN allows the franchise to remain profitable, they would make considerably more money as a franchise if the team was a contender. They would sell more tickets (at higher prices), they would sell more sky-boxes, they would be able to charge more for advertising both on MASN, and with their Radio Network. Anyone that believes the O’s are not interested in improving, is someone you can disregard listening to going forward.

Logical argument: “The Orioles want to improve, but are not doing everything they can to accomplish that.”

This is a ‘Logical’ argument because: The Orioles deciding to decline arbitration on Koji Uehara is an example of the O’s not doing everything they can to improve. You can not make external Free Agents sign with you. You can only control what you can control. By offering arbitration the O’s would have guaranteed that they either retained the services of a valuable player, or received a compensatory draft-pick.

The O’s have less financial resources than some of their direct divisional peers. Because of that some will say the O’s were wise to not offer Uehara arbitration because he would have likely accepted that, and it would have cost the Orioles more than they may have wanted to pay.  I would argue that risk is lower than potentially losing a comp pick. I believe the O’s have not had a comp pick in 5 years, while their divisional peers are obtaining those picks with increasing frequency. Boston obtained Felix Lopez off waivers last year with the sole purpose of offering him arbitration this Winter. Lopez declined arbitration as expected, and if he winds up on a Major League roster the Red Sox will have gained themselves another high draft-pick next June. In comparison, the O’s traded players like Chad Bradford and Aubrey Huff for spare parts instead of allowing them to walk and receive draft comps. If you are having trouble luring top FA’s, and you can not compete payroll to payroll with NY & Boston; it only makes sense to do everything you can to obtain as much amateur talent as possible.

Further to this is the larger point that the O’s simply have to do more in the Amateur Draft (potentially including more Scouts, certainly including further increasing the Draft budget), and Internationally.

Logical argument: “The O’s need to improve at SS.”

This is a ‘Logical’ argument because: Izturis was the worst everyday offensive player in the Major Leagues in 2010, and his defense is not superlative enough to justify his lack of offensive production.  Both JJ Hardy and Jason Barlett were tendered contracts by Minnesota and Tampa Bay respectfully. The Twins have until December 26th to sign the Japanese SS Nishioka. If Nishioka is signed, Minnesota could go with him and Alex Casilla up the middle. The question is will they decide to keep Hardy?

I fully expect Tampa to trade Bartlett, but I would imagine that the Rays would prefer to send him to San Diego, Pittsburgh, or Houston vs. trading him within the division. If the O’s are not able to obtain either of those options, it seems likely that Izturis will return. That is unacceptable, and should drive the Orioles to finding a package that works for either Minnesota or Tampa.

Logical argument: “It was a mistake not to bid on Nishioka.”

This is a ‘Logical’ argument because: The known limitations of Izturis are greater than the risks of Nishioka. It might be proven that Nishioka is not capable of playing a Major League SS, but his former Manager Bobby Valentine believed he had that capability. Nobody in any Major League International Scouting Department will have seen more Nishioka more than Valentine. I could have understood the O’s setting a limit on how much on their posting-fee, but I do not understand the Orioles choosing not to bid at-all. The Twins won the posting with a very reasonable $5M bid. If Minnesota signs him, they will have obtained a player with considerable promise at a competitive rate. The O’s had the same opportunity, and greater need.

Poor argument: “The Orioles will have another horrible year in 2011.”

This is a poor argument because: Christmas is still 20 days away, and pitchers and catchers will not be reporting for another 2.5 months. Right now on December 5th, there are options existing for the Orioles to improve at 1st, SS, and 3rd.

If the O’s improve at those positions, they will be much improved. Further to that, of the Orioles younger core of talent only Markakis is 27 (the accepted prime of most careers). Matusz, Wieters, Jones, Arrieta, Tillman, Bergesen, Hernandez etc. etc. are all several years away from their respective primes, and each should be expected to be better in 2011 than they were in 2010.

You can not discount how horrible the Orioles were during the first 4 months of 2010, but you also can not discount how good the O’s were over the last 2 months. If you told me the O’s signed Lee, were able to trade for Reynolds and Hardy/Bartlett (without giving up Tillman, or Hernandez), and were able to resign Uehara; I would project the O’s to win 85 games in 2011.