A look at the BSL Media Survey

Last week, BSL owner Chris Stoner posted his media survey article. In that article, Chris got several local and national baseball writers to answer several questions regarding the Orioles upcoming season. In this article, I will respond to the results and give my answers.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Question 1:

The Baltimore Orioles win how many games in 2015?

24 of the 28 writers who responded to this question predicted that the Orioles will win between 81-90 games. Only one was more optimistic and 3 were saying 500 or less. I am going to go with the majority here and feel that the Orioles will win in that 81-90 range. If I were to give a win total right now, I would say 88. 88 will probably fall short of the division but it should have them in the running for one of the WC spots. If they are able to get big contributions from certain players and/or make some big in season moves, that could be the difference in them winning the division or not.

Question 2:

Manny Machado posts an fWAR at 4.5 or above?

26 writers responded to this and 13 said yes and 13 said no. I think that’s pretty fair. I also think if you the 13 who said no were guaranteed that Manny would play a full season, many of them would say yes. I am going to go with yes myself. I feel he will be healthy enough and I am expecting a jump in his offense. So, even if he were to play “only” 125 games this year, I still think he could be a 4.5+ fWAR player. He was a 2.5 WAR player in only 82 games last year and he was a shell of himself in the first month of last year as he was coming back from the injury. Last May was essentially his ST, so without that this year, he can be even better.

Question 3:

Chris Davis finishes ’15 with an OPS of at-least .850?

27 writers answered this question and 19 said no. I do think there is a chance of this happen but I think he falls just short. Even the 9 that said yes, I have to think most of them would take the under if you set it at 850.5. It’s the smart play here. I do think Davis is in for a bounce back though. He has to use all fields and go against the shift much more often and if he does that, he will get the BABIP back up. Last year, that number was at 242. For his career, it is 320. And that BABIP came with the highest LD% he has had since 2011.

Question 4:

Steve Pearce produced an fWAR of 4.9 in ’14. In ’15, he will produce an fWAR of?

Pearce was the team’s biggest surprise last year. He was great and was one of the more valuable players in the game for the 2014 season. 27 of the writers answered this and 21 of those writers have him as getting a 3 WAR or less. The largest number of votes casted was 14 and that was for him having a 2-3 WAR this year. That’s where I am as well. I think he takes a step back this season but he will still have value for this team, as his versatility is important. If he can show that he has truly changed something in his game and can continue to hit righties well, then he stands a good chance of having a 3+ WAR. I would suspect most people feel he has a decline from last year’s numbers for similar reasons.

Question 5:

The Orioles best advantage is?

28 writers voted on this. The largest number of votes was for the defense and that number was 12. Showalter was closely behind with 10 votes. This has been a topic for a while over at BSL. Last week, I wrote about some of the holes in PECOTA(all team predictions have similar flaws though) and biggest thing that I feel these predictions fail at measuring properly is the defense. The defense is the best thing about the Orioles. Their defense is going to be elite. I have talked about this many times this offseason and I know I sound like a broken record but it really makes everything better. Showalter’s ability to manage the egos, the roster and the bullpen is also very important for this team doing well, so I think the writers got it right but having one these 2 things be the dominant answers for this question. The only thing I will say is that my preferred answer to this question would be talent. The Orioles have better talent than they have had in year’s past but I wish they had more. We are winning without the best talent and that is because of the defense and Buck but it makes the margin for error smaller.

Question 6:

The O’s have 6 rotation options (Tillman, Gausman, Chen, Norris, Gonzalez, Jimenez) for 5 spots. In-general, you view this rotation as?

28 writers answered this and 15 said it was adequate. No other answer got more than 5 votes. Adequate is also where I would be. I will say that any of the other answers could apply depending on the growth(or lack thereof) of Gausman and Ubaldo. That being said, the rotation looks better than they are because of that defense. Still, I think it’s a solid group that will generally eat some innings and keep you in games.

Question 7:

Zach Britton used his sinker to compile a GB% of 75.3 in ’14. His ERA was 1.65, his FIP 3.13. Is he an upper 1/3 Closer?

Of the 27 writers who voted on this, 19 said yes to this question.

Essentially, this question is asking if he is a top 10 closer. I think this is very borderline. There are some guys who I put above Zach without question. Chapman, Kimbrel, McGee, Holland, Jensen, Koji and Doolittle are better IMO. Britton is in there with a group of guys headed by Robertson and Rosenthal. It’s a tough group to crack but I think Britton barely makes it in because of that sinker. This isn’t an answer I am all that confident in and it really speaks to me not liking many of the closers out there(or needed to see young guys perform) but I will give a very hesitant yes here.

Question 8:

The O’s lost Nelson Cruz, Andrew Miller, and Nick Markakis this Winter. If you were the O’s Management, would you have resigned any of that trio for the contracts they signed?

27 writers responded to this and 17 of them said no. Of those who chose to answer with a player they would have signed, Miller was the one with the most votes. For me, Miller is the only one I would have considered. I was not in favor of the Orioles beating(or matching) the contract he got from the Yanks. The most I wanted to go was 4/32 and even that was pushing it for me. However, seeing as the team did very little in the offseason, I would have been in favor of the team matching that offer had I known they were going to do so little. Now, Miller does scare me. He was great last year and has always been a good strikeout guy out of the pen but the walk rate has usually been poor. Will the walk rate stay below 3? If so, he continues to dominate. If it gets back into that 3.5-4.5 range, he will be very good but not dominate and therefore, not worth that deal. So, ultimately, the Orioles probably made the right decision and the writers were probably correct here with their majority answer.

Question 9:

Should the O’s pursue an extension with Wieters?

28 writers voted on this and, in the most surprising results of this survey IMO, 19 said yes. Of course, I guess it depends on loosely you say pursue. In theory, that could mean offering a 3 year deal for 12-15M a season. That is a pursuit but it would be a pursuit that takes you no where. So, without knowing how each writer defined pursuit, I am going to take the question as the Orioles putting a serious, market value deal on the table and that is not something I would even consider doing. I do expect him to hit better this year but I am still only expecting an 800-825 OPS, which is hardly great. It would be above average for a catcher and he would probably be a 5+ WAR guy if he did that but I still don’t feel he hits well enough long term to justify the inevitable position change and I am not willing to put 5-7 years on the table because of that.

Question 10:

Had Duquette been allowed to leave for Toronto, the best hire to replace him as the O’s Executive VP of Baseball Operations would have been?

28 writers voted on this and of the answers given, “other” was the most popular answer but that was only 9 votes. Of the names mentioned, staying in house or going with Coppolella. That’s the name that sticks out to me. He has been a hot name for a while and Atlanta is a great organization, so he has learned from good people. He is a young baseball mind that has the new school ideas, which is where I think this organization needs to go. I am sure there are plenty of other names out there that would be exciting as well, although not any of the ones we heard rumored if Duquette had left.

Question 11:

Travis Snider is an adequate replacement for Markakis?

24 of the 28 voters for this question said yes. This is probably a bigger slight on Nick than it is confidence in Snider. That being said, I do think Snider can be a 2-2.5 WAR player for us and that is what Nick was. So I would also vote yes for this question.

Question 12:

In ’14, Jonathan Schoop showed to be a good defensive 2nd baseman with pop. He also batted just .209, and had a wOBA of .265. In ’15, what is more likely for him?

16 of the 27 voters predicted that he would be pushed for playing time by Evereth Cabrera. For me, I am going with the other 11. Those voted that Schoop would put up a 675+ OPS and continue to play everyday. I am in agreement with that one. Buck didn’t continue to put him out there last year by accident and I don’t think he goes away from that. I also think Schoop justifies that decision and continues to get better.

Question 13:

During 2009-2013, Adam Jones had negative defensive metrics each year. In ’14, his UZR/150 and DRS were positive. This could be looked at as an aberration, a change by Jones (positioning), or a general flaw with the metrics. How do you view Jones as a Defensive CF?

20 of the 27 voters said he isn’t as good as the accolades have shown but not as bad as the metrics have shown. This is where I have always been. I don’t think Jones is a well below average OFer but I don’t think he is more than average either and I feel he has been slightly below average for much of his career. That being said, last year was different because of better positioning IMO. Now, you can say that means he has improved. I am not sure if that is right word or not. He did become smarter though and that may be just as important as physical improvement.

Question 14:

Who wins the AL East?

27 voters responded to this one and 11 said Toronto and 10 said Boston. The Orioles had 5 votes. I would vote Boston now. Their offense is going to be really good and I don’t think the defense is going to hurt them too much. They also have the pieces to get any player(Hamels?) they want. I do question the rotation but I think it will be good enough and the offense will more than make up for it. Toronto and Baltimore will be right there with them and all 3 will battling for the playoffs. NY has an outside chance but injuries to Tanaka and Pineda are bound to happen(especially Tanaka’s elbow) and that will sink them. TB is a sleeper because of the pitching but I just don’t think they hit enough.