Yesterday MLBTradeRumors released their rankings of the top 50 free agents for this offseason, including predictions for the landing spots of each guy. These predictions are basically a mix of likely landing spots and chatter around the game on different players and clubs.

Discuss this post and more O’s offseason topics on the BSL forums here.

The team at MLBTR has the O’s as their likely landing spot for the following players:

9.  Nelson Cruz – Orioles.  Cruz led all of MLB with 40 home runs this year, and he socked two more in the ALDS.  His type of power is extremely difficult to find these days, and a qualifying offer won’t crush his market like it did a year ago.  At that time, Cruz was coming off a PED suspension.  His age, 34, is another deterrent, and he’s limited defensively as well.  A four-year deal in the $60-70MM range is possible this time.  The Orioles will attempt to re-sign him, while the Mariners could be more convinced this time around after coming close to signing him last winter.

24.  Nick Markakis – Orioles.  The Orioles chose a $2MM buyout over Markakis’ $17.5MM mutual option, suggesting a $15.3MM qualifying offer is also unlikely.  Markakis has settled in as a durable right fielder with a solid OBP.  Without a qualifying offer, that might be enough for a four-year deal.  The Orioles are the only team he’s ever known, but if they are unable to re-sign him, the Blue Jays, White Sox, Twins, Rangers, Mets, Reds, and Giants could be fits.

50.  Jung-ho Kang – Orioles.  After hitting 38 home runs in the Korea Baseball Organization in 2014, Kang could be the first position player to make the leap from KBO to MLB.  MLBTR spoke to an international scouting director who finds Kang fringy at shortstop, suggesting he’s better suited for second or third base.  He doesn’t possess any plus tools, and may profile as a utility guy with good instincts and a little bit of pop.  That still has value.

Beyond those three, the O’s are mentioned in the write ups for Max Scherzer (1), Victor Martinez (6), Melky Cabrera (7), Colby Rasmus (20), Adam LaRoche (25), Michael Cuddyer (29), Alex Rios (30), Torii Hunter (33), and Billy Butler (41).

There are a lot of interesting names on those two lists, so let’s dissect some of them a little further:

 

Nelson Cruz

If the price tag for Cruz ends up coming in around 4 years and $60+ million, I can’t see the O’s being players. I suspect the AAV on that deal is right, but three years is a more realistic contract duration than four. No doubt Cruz and his agent will start at 4/$80MM or something similar with teams looking at a 2/$30MM type contract. That would suggest a 3/$50MM type deal would be a fair compromise, though some team like Seattle might go four years rather than lose out on Cruz.

The only price I mentioned above that makes sense for the Orioles is a 2/$30MM type deal. Otherwise the O’s would be allocating a very large portion (as much as 20%) of their payroll to a DH, something that I can’t see Dan Duquette committing to. If that is what Cruz will cost on the open market, the O’s should be happy to take their draft pick and look elsewhere. Victor Martinez is an interesting target for the club, though he’ll command a similar (if not higher) contract as Cruz. A potential cheaper replacement could be Billy Butler, who will command a significantly smaller financial commitment.

 

Nick Markakis

This seems inevitable, doesn’t it? The Orioles are Markakis are reportedly exploring a four year pact, which gives you an idea of the O’s expect his market to be like in free agency. Even if the O’s and Markakis don’t reach an agreement before the veteran right fielder reaches free agency, the club has another option. I’ve advocated before for the Orioles to offer Markakis a qualifying offer, and I think that worst case scenario that should happen here. Either Markakis returns on a 1 year deal for $15.3MM (the qualifying offer salary), he signs elsewhere and the O’s get a draft pick, or both sides reach a long term pact.

If the O’s let Markakis walk (with a QO or not) then they’ll presumably be looking at other options for one of their corner outfield spots. That’s where names like Cabrera, Rasmus, Rios, or Hunter come into play.

 

Jung-ho Kang

Kang is an interesting name, and I suspect the O’s are linked to him as a result of their continued interest in Korea on the international front. That said, Kang could be a shrewd pickup for Duquette and co. if the price is right on the infielder. Scouting reports suggest he’ll bring some pop and a competent glove to an infield position, though as MLBTR mentioned it’s not likely to be at short. Given the recent Hardy extension, that’s not an issue for the O’s.

I’d actually quite like to see Kang sign as an Oriole for a couple of reasons. First and foremost it will provide some better insurance in the event of further Machado injuries, which has cropped up as an issue throughout the dynamic third baseman’s MLB career. Additionally, it would allow the club to start Jon Schoop in AAA, where he can work on pitch identification and plate discipline. If Kang profiles as more of a super utility type player, that’s fine too. He can play the role that Ryan Flaherty, Alexi Casilla, Jemile Weeks, and Steve Lombardozzi all played last season. The O’s have a pretty darn good infield, but more depth is always a good thing.

 

One Additional Note on Starting Pitching

The O’s were listed as a possible destination for Max Scherzer, which seems as unlikely. That said, I do find it interesting that the club was not mentioned for Jon Lester, a guy who I’d prefer over Scherzer. My sense is that Scherzer will receive a longer and more expensive contract than Lester, while their value is arguably pretty similar. On top of that, Lester has more value come playoff time as he can help the O’s by adding another capable lefty to a playoff rotation, should they reach the postseason again in 2015 (and beyond). These things depend heavily on the number of years and total dollars these top pitchers sign for, but in general I think Lester will provide better value.

Realistically though I can’t see the O’s going all out and signing either of the top two players in free agency this offseason. This is especially true given the (so far) unsuccessful foray into pitching on the free agency market with Ubaldo Jimenez.

 

All in all this should be one of the more entertaining offseasons for O’s fans, as the club seems poised to be a player in free agency and on the trade market.

Jeff Long
Jeff Long

Jeff was the owner of the Orioles blog Warehouse Worthy, which focused on making advanced statistics a part of the conversation for the average fan. Outside of baseball, Jeff is a graduate of Loyola University where he received his Bachelor’s and Master’s in Business Administration. The Maryland native currently works for an Advertising Agency in downtown Baltimore. Previously a contributor to Beyond the Boxscore, he joined Baseball Prospectus in September 2014. You can reach him at [email protected].

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