Make the opposing argument

On local radio, and on message-boards, there is a lot of discussion on the O’s season and what it means.

There 3 basic opinions stated:
1) Development is occurring.
2) The O’s are horrible, with no direction.
3) Ambivalence.

I think it would be interesting to see people make arguments opposing their normal position.

I have stated how I feel good about where the Organization is right now, and how I believe in the O’s ability to win 85 games in 2010. My rationale for that is that I believe Markakis, Jones, Wieters, and Reimold should all be better… that Roberts, and Scott will basically be the same, and Mora and Huff’s production should be able to be replaced (though I now believe Huff is returning).

I think that even if Tillman, Arrieta, and Matusz are no where need their ultimate ceiling, that they will drastically upgrade the staff. (ie, 300 innings at a 4.75 era from Tillman, and Arrieta as the 4th, and 5th starters is a major improvement).

I believe Ray’s 20 innings of 2009 failure, is just that… 20 innings of failure. As his arm is healthy, I think he rebounds and finds a balance between 2006 and 2009. Beyond Ray, I think the bullpen figures to also be much improved with the gains in the rotation. Even if Sherrill is traded, there are weapons with Johnson, Albers, and potentially Berken, and Uehara.

A bench of Zaun, Wigginton, Andino, Montanez is useful.

Patton has been rocked in AAA, but I do not care. Him regularly taking the mound for Bowie, and Norfolk was a positive for the 2009 season. I believe he can be an option that helps you some-time next year.

MASN continues to grow, and provide an additional source of revenue for the Organization.

The ST facility is a tremendous step forward for Player Development. The efforts of John Stockstill in International Scouting, is an example of the Organization realizing they need to have a larger approach. The Dominican facility, is another example of this of the O’s catching-up. Joe Jordan being able to target and select the players he and his staff identify, is a positive.

If Tampa can go from 66 wins in 2007 to 97 in 2008, the O’s should be able to go from 70 wins in 2009, to 85 wins in 2010. NY/Tampa/Boston are not going to improve, they are going to continue to win their 90-95 games. The O’s can only control their improvement, and as Baltimore improves, the win totals of their division rivals will decrease some.

Those are my general thoughts on the O’s going into 2010. However, I could make an opposing argument of why 85 wins in 2010 will not occur, and why the direction of the franchise can still be questioned.

Markakis has not reached his prime, but this was his 4th year in the bigs. Maybe there is not any untouched ceiling to reach. Jones improved from 2008 to 2009, but he might not be disciplined enough to make the next jump. Wieters could vastly improve, but still be closer to an .800 OPS guy vs the .900 OPS guy we all hoped for.

The O’s need an answer for 3rd. If they do not sign a FA, it is likely Wigginton. Would he be exposed everyday? The bench is weakened if he moves to the starting lineup.

Snyder is likely to head back to Norfolk to start 2010. Even if he rakes there, it will be an adjustment to the Majors whenever he is promoted. What if Scott sees vast regression? What if Huff can not get it going at all this 2nd-half?

If Sherrill is traded, and Perez can not start the year in Baltimore… who is the lefty for the pen?

The O’s will still be in the hardest division in baseball, playing 72 games a year vs the East. Boston, NY, and Tampa are set to win 90-95 games a year for the foreseeable future. With the right return for Halladay, Toronto could be pretty deep.

The O’s are just atrocious on the road, and overwhelmed with Boston and Yankee crowds at home.

What if Bergesen comes back to earth? What if Hernandez proves he belongs in the bullpen? What if Matusz, Tillman, and Arrieta all project as league avg. pitchers and above, but none of them project as an ace? What if Matusz does not even see Baltimore until June 2010?

Uehara signed with the O’s to have an opportunity to start. The O’s signed him to help in 2009, and more importantly market the O’s to Japan and the rest of Asia. If he is inserted into the bullpen, will he accept that? If not, will it hurt the O’s reputation in Asia?

The Dominican facility is a good thing, will the results match? What are the O’s doing in Puerto Rico, Venz, Korea?

Izturis is a stop-gap SS with a career on-base% under .300 in over 3,300 Major League at-bats. Andino’s production at AAA in the PCL has not done enough to alleviate doubts about his ability to produce with the bat consistently in the bigs. Where is the long-term SS?

The O’s lacked upper-tier positional prospects, and passed on Grant Green who entered 2009 as the 2nd best prospect overall. Green would have had an excellent chance to be the OD 2011 starter at SS, while the best expectations for Hobgood would be mid 2012, and more likely 2013 before he joined the O’s.

MASN might increase the revenue stream of the O’s, but they will never match the resources of NY, and Boston, and I can see why some question the O’s ability/desire to spend more money.

What is your opinion on the franchise, and where the O’s are? Can you argue the point opposing to your own?