I have had the pleasure of watching Manny Machado the entire 2012 season. Whether it has been at Prince George’s Stadium or Camden Yards, Machado has displayed a magnificent prowess for success. There is that old saying “Ice runs through his veins”. In the case of this young infielder, it may very well be true. Machado has developed into a fine-looking player on the left side of the diamond. It has been interesting to watch his progression throughout the year. He went from being one of the more feared batters in the Eastern League to batting in the bottom of the order in Baltimore. Of course, this is more to do with him only being 20 years old and having much less experience than the rest of the order. In reality though, have they actually pitched Machado any differently since joining the big league club?

When I first saw Machado this season, he was tearing the cover off the ball. If you left a fastball anywhere remotely close to middle-inside, it was stroked for a line-drive base hit or home run. Now that is not exactly ground-breaking knowledge there, since majority of prospects do the exact same thing. However, as the year progressed, Machado was being pitched differently at Bowie. It became obvious that he was seeing much more off-speed in the second half of the season. Thus, he was forced to make adjustments. Before the All-Star break, Machado was hitting .264/.347/.418 with 7 HR in 311 AB. After the All-Star break, Machado hit .275/.365/.505 with 4 HR in 91 AB. Obviously the second half is a smaller sample size, but the progression was evident at the plate.

He has always shown solid plate discipline in the minors, and the approach at the plate was above-average. This helped tremendously as he saw more pitches out of the secondary arsenal of Eastern League pitchers. A pitchers’ Slider, Change up, and Curve ball is obviously less crisp at AA than the MLB. Take a look at this sequence I charted back on August 2nd; seven days before his promotion:

81 mph low
81 mph low in the dirt
80 mph low and away
88 mph fastball low and away
88 mph fastball low
82 curve ball inside

This was essentially how Machado was pitched for a lot of the season. Everything he was doing at Bowie was exceptional besides the triple-slash-line that the general fan-base was seeing. Not only was he not chasing a lot of these pitches, but he was hammering the ones that missed their spot. He was being pounded with the change up and curve ball. Pitchers with a slider arsenal were getting a little too slider-friendly. It was at this moment where I was 100% convinced that Machado would be in the big leagues to start next season. Little did I know…It would be seven days later.

Now that he has seen the light of the big leagues, we know that it is not too big for him. He finishes the season with a profound .262/.294/.445 batting line with 7 HR and a 9/38 BB/K Ratio in 202 PA. Obviously for a 20 year old, that is a very solid line. He’s only going to get better. The question is, how exactly was he being pitched in comparison to his time at AA? Thanks to TexasLeaguers, we can take a look at that.

Machado was pounded heavy with Sliders. He has seen 136, or 19.1% of pitches. Some of this has to do with the type of pitchers he was seeing (Brandon Morrow, Dylan Axelrod, Carlos Villanueva). Like mentioned above, some pitchers were getting a little too slider-friendly with Machado. Of course, a major league caliber slider is more refined and crisp. 25.7% of the sliders he saw were put into play, although most of them were weak grounders or fly-outs. That is not uncommon, but also did not happen as often in the minors. Sliders from a RHP are meant to tail away from a RHB. He will need to work on staying back on these pitches down the road, as he was a little off-balanced at times with some of the better ones. He did have two HR off of sliders. Both of them were hung terribly. I think his best AB off a slider came against the Yankees when he poked it into CF for a RBI single. He was able to keep balanced, not over-swing, and put the barrel of the bat on the ball. Overall, time will surely help his progression against the slider in the MLB. Keep in mind that players such as Adam Jones still struggle with this pitch from time to time.

Machado Spray Slider Chart
Machado Swing Slider Chart
Machado Take Slider Chart

The curve ball has been a death pitch on Machado in his young career. He saw 82 on the year (11.5% of pitches), and roughly 70% of them have been strikes. He is whiffing on 19.5% of the curve balls he is seeing.

Now if that seemed a little negative, it was not meant to be. Let’s be honest, a curve from James Shields and players of that nature are much better than the average one he was seeing in Bowie. In my eyes, that is primarily why he struggled on them in 2012 with the big league club. He simply has never seen that pitch on this level before. Right now, it seems to be 50/50 whether he picks up on the curve. The good ones are getting him, and are primarily low in the zone. I don’t really expect a 20 year old to have top pitch recognition without the proper experience. Not everyone is Mike Trout. This is certainly an area he will be working on down the road.

Of course, This GIF from BSR is exactly what happens when a pitch is severely hung to Machado. That pitch will forever be in the nightmares of Luke Hochevar.
Machado Spray Curve Chart
Machado Swing Curve Chart
Machado Take Curve Chart

Lastly, Machado saw 73 change ups this season (10.3% of pitches). He was a little better on this than the curve ball. Oddly enough, pitchers only threw five change ups to Machado on 0-2 counts. So this was not exactly the “strike-out” pitch that one would have initially thought. That goes more to the curve ball and slider. Once again, roughly 70% of change ups thrown to Machado were strikes, and he was indeed whiffing on 19.2% of them. Anyone whom has watched him play at the MLB level could tell you that he was getting out in front on majority of these pitches (That is usually what happens!). I thought he was doing a decent job at picking up on them this season, although I cannot recall any huge hits off the pitch besides a double to the Left-Center gap.

Machado Spray Change Chart
Machado Swing Change Chart
Machado Take Change Chart

As of now, pitchers are throwing the junk early and often to Machado. He is seeing 39.2% four-seam fastballs on 0-2. Overall, I have been very impressed with Machado at both the minor and major league levels. He is probably one of my favorite players to have seen go through the system in a long time. Once he gets a little more experience under his belt, he is going to be a force. Eventually I expect him to draw more walks as he becomes more experienced. It doesn’t happen overnight, but Manny is one hard-working young man. 2013 is going to be exciting to watch.

Tucker Blair
Tucker Blair

Tucker Blair was born and raised in the Baltimore area and currently lives in Elkridge, Maryland. He graduated from York College of Pennsylvania with a B.S in Entrepreneurial Studies and is currently a Project Analyst for a Management Consulting Firm in Federal Hill, Baltimore. Tucker was previously the Managing Editor at Orioles Nation, where he worked on prospect lists, reports, and analysis on the Orioles minor league system. He also previously wrote his personal blog, The EntreprenOriole.

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