Maryland vs. North Carolina: ACC vs. Big Ten Challenge

On Tuesday, the University of Maryland Terrapins will participate in the ACC / Big Ten Challenge for the 17th time – and the second time as a member of the Big Ten – when MD travels to North Carolina to face the Tar Heels.

The ACC leads the series all-time 10-4-2, with the Big Ten winning last year.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Prior to the start of the season, North Carolina was included in our College Basketball preview, as we spoke to Andrew Carter, of The News & Observer / Charlotte Observer:

(From October 17th:)

Baltimore Sports and Life: The Tar Heels return four starters (and plenty of bench talent) from a 26 win team. Due to that expectations are high. Coach Roy Williams has been quoted as saying health, and North Carolina’s ability to close are things to watch. If you are picking nits, what is the biggest question you have with the roster?
 
Carter: I don’t really have any nits to pick with the roster itself. This team looks really good on paper. Good depth in the backcourt and frontcourt. Plenty of experience. A senior All-American candidate at point guard in Marcus Paige. A talented sophomore class that could be ready to take the next step.
You alluded in your question to the biggest concern surrounding this team. And that’s a concern about its toughness – mental and physical. Eight times last season UNC led in the second half and lost. It led by 18 points at Louisville points early in the second half and lost in overtime. It led by 10 at Duke with about three minutes to go and lost in overtime.

The Tar Heels were in great shape against Notre Dame in the ACC championship game and lost. Same thing against Wisconsin in the NCAA tournament. The roster is in great shape. The talent is there. The depth. The question is whether UNC has learned how to put it all together.
A lot of factors contributed to the issues in the second half last year. Sometimes the shooting went cold. Sometimes there were defensive lapses. Sometimes the other team just played out of its mind (Notre Dame comes to mind in the ACC title game).

The common thread, though, is that UNC lacked an ability to turn the momentum back once it got away. Williams attributed that to a lack of toughness and poise. With all the experience on this team, you’d think that wouldn’t be an issue this season but UNC has to prove it.
 
Baltimore Sports and Life: As you mentioned, the guard play with Marcus Paige figures to be strong. What do SF Justin Jackson, and F Kennedy Meeks need to provide for Carolina? Who do you see as the x factor for the team?
 
Carter: They need to play to their potential. Jackson can be one of the best sophomores in the country this season. Meeks can be one of the best big men in the ACC. They both have it in them. Expectations are high for both, though probably higher for Jackson. He played well at the end of last season, after it took him a while to develop some confidence. He went through some challenges during the first half of last season that are pretty common for freshmen.

Jackson isn’t the shooter that Marcus Paige is and, obviously, he’s not the inside scoring presence that Johnson and Meeks are. But UNC doesn’t have a player with an overall better inside-out game than Jackson. He can shoot. He’s adept at penetration. He thrives in transition. Meeks has had some real nice moments throughout his time at UNC but he has yet to come close to putting it together for an entire season. Will he this year? That’s the question for him. He has a nice soft touch around the basket and is a very skilled passer for a big man.

If Jackson and Meeks play to their potential UNC can win a national championship. As for the x-factor: I’ll go with Theo Pinson. He went through some injury problems last season, had foot surgery in the spring and should be good to go at the start of the season. Pinson should play the largest role in filling that do-a-little-bit-of-everything role that J.P. Tokoto played last season.

When Maryland arrives in Chapel Hill Tuesday, the Terps will be facing a 5-1 North Carolina team.

North Carolina’s Season To Date:
vs. Temple 91-67 (W)
vs. Fairfield 92-65 (W)
vs. Wofford 78-58 (W)
@ Northern Iowa 71-67 (L)
vs. Northwestern 80-69 (W)
vs. Kansas State 80-79 (W)

Paige – who had broken a bone in his hand and missed North Carolina’s initial 6 games – participated in the team’s shoot-around before the game vs. Northwestern, and is expected back vs. Maryland.

Without Paige, Coach Roy Williams has been primarily using a 7 man rotation (7 players at at-least 17.2 minutes per, 3 players at 4.5 to 7 minutes per).

Four Tar Heels are scoring in double figures:
Jackson: 14.7 ppg, 4.3 boards, 3.7 assists, 26% from 3 (3.8 attempts per), 67% at the line
Meeks: 14.3 ppg, 7.5 boards, 1.7 assists, 1.5 steals, 1 block, 60% from the floor
Johnson: 13 ppg, 10.3 boards, 58% from the floor
Berry II: 11.5 ppg, 3.2 boards, 3.7 assists, 1.5 steals, 31% from 3 (4.8 attempts per)

All individual stats can be found here.

In the Ken Pomeroy Ratings:
North Carolina is 6th overall, Maryland is 21st.
North Carolina is 3rd overall in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) at 115.6 per. Maryland is 12th at 113.4.
North Carolina is 26th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) at 94.3 per. Maryland is 39th at 96.
North Carolina is 79th in Adjusted Tempo (possessions per 40 minutes) at 72.6, while MD is 316th at 67.5. 

This match-up faces the winners of the Cancun Challenge, and CBE Hall of Fame Classic Tournaments.

The trip South of the Border was well spent for the Terps. Maryland was challenged in the opener vs. Illinois State, until back-to-back 3’s from Rasheed Sulaimon, and Jared Nickens put MD up 6 with under 4 minutes remaining. The Terps would ultimately win 77-66, despite going just 5 of 22 from 3 overall. Sulaimon had a nice game, finishing with 18 points, 4 boards, and 3 steals.

In the Championship game vs. Rhode Island, Maryland shot much better from deep (10 of 17), and 5 Terps scored in double figures. Robert Carter led the way with 15 points, 9 boards, 3 assists, and 3 blocks.

It was the first game MD was able to completely breathe easy late, as MD took control early, and won by 23. Melo Trimble was a perfect 7 of 7 from the floor. Sulaimon chipped in with 17 points, including four 3’s.

Back home, the Terps moved to 6-0 last night with their 80-63 win over Cleveland State. MD shot 59% from the floor overall, including going 7 of 14 from 3 (Jared Nickens making four of them). After turning the ball over too often against Rhode Island, MD had just 9 vs. the Vikings. It was a competitive game late into the 1st half, until Coach Turgeon utilized more pressure. That made MD more active defensively (they had been again being beat by dribble penetration) and created some offensive from their defense as well. The Terrapins also did a good job sharing the ball, finishing with 21 assists on their 29 made baskets.

Prior to heading to Cancun, we gave thoughts on the Terps individually after the first three games. Let’s review a couple of those comments, and update where appropriate now after six outings.

On 11/22, we said: “Carter has good size, and a nice intermediate shot. When close to the basket, it’s been fun seeing his array of hook shots.  He’s going to consistently be an effective interior option. It was interesting Friday, when in the 2nd half, he was briefly utilized at the 5 in a smaller alignment. There has been talk that during his year of ineligibility his 3 point shooting had improved (he shot 26% from 3 in 2013-14 with Georgia Tech on 2.3 attempts per game), but he is 0-4 so far on the year. For this MD team, I don’t they need him hoisting shots from outside. He’s currently second on the Terps in rebounding per game (6.7 per) despite playing 5 minutes less per game than Layman. That’s the key for me. You need him attacking the glass, and winning there. While he lacks the top-shelf athleticism that Chris Wilcox had, this is the most talented PF Maryland has had in years.”

Update: Currently Carter is averaging 13ppg, with 7 boards. He’s just very smooth, and I appreciate that he’s showing up each game. He does a bit of everything, including looking for his teammates. We pointed out previously that he was 0-4 shooting from 3, so it’s fair to point out that he’s now 3 for 9 (33%).

On 11/22, we said: “Thank goodness Sulaimon decided to join the Terps.  Our BSL Colleague Chris Knoche has already mentioned that he’s a strong on-ball defender. That’s a good thing, because that isn’t a strength of his teammates. I’ve been impressed by his floor game. Not just when Melo Trimble is off-the-floor, and he’s been running the offense as the 1; but when they’ve shared the floor together. Sulaimon is the Terp right now that is looking to make the extra pass. The guy that is creating looks, and opportunities for his teammates. Need him to drive, and dish? He can do that. Need some outside shooting? He can provide that. He’s currently leading MD in minutes played per game (33.7). So far this year, he’s been playing the role of the facilitator. Currently 5th on the team in scoring (8.7), I think it’s quite possible that more and more of the offense will go through him. If that happens, he has to do a better job of getting to the line (just 2 foul shots through the first 3 games). At the level of minutes he’s getting, I think he has the ability to be a 15ppg scorer.  Can he increase his scoring, while also being counted on to be MD’s best defender, and the backup 1?”

Update: His minutes per game average has dipped from 33.7 to 32.7. That’s the result of the last two games primarily, with MD building sizable leads. His scoring has increased from 8.7 per to 11.2, now good for fourth overall. He’s 8 total FT attempts in these last three games. That’s better, I think can that can still be improved further. In-terms of overall contributions, he’s playing as well as any Terp.

On 11/22, we said: “It’s not hard to see why Diamond Stone was one of the five best recruits in the Class of 2016. 6’11, 255 lbs. Moves well. Great footwork. Advanced offensive skills. Confident at the foul line. A shot out to 15 feet. I’m not sure I see a 1 & Done type player though. It’s clear he needs more time in a weight room. It’s also clear that while he is a good athlete, he’s not some above-the-rim high flier. In the Georgetown game, he was pushed around a bit. Against Rider, MD got back into the game going through him. It’s important to look at him as part of the overall solution, and not place the expectations of him being the savior. He’s a Freshman. He’s going to have positive moments, and not so great ones. What I really like so far, is I think he has some edge to him. He might not be able to greatly improve his strength during this season, but the cardio has to get a bit better. He’s only playing 17 minutes per at this point, and has looked gassed at times. As I said with Carter, I think the key to watch is his rebounding. In those 17 minutes, he’s averaging a very respectable 4.3 boards. That’s 12 in 38 minutes against undersized Mt. St. Mary’s and Rider opponents, and 1 in 14 vs. Georgetown.”

Update: Three more games, and his minutes have gone from 17 per to 16 per. That was primarily based on 10 ineffective foul laden minutes vs. Illinois State. He rebounded from that, to have positive moments in the next two games. He’s now scored in double figures in 3 of the last 4 overall. Still think the key with him is rebounding. One thing we’ve seen over this last stretch, is that he has great hands.

On 11/22, we said: “Turgeon said before the year that Damonte Dodd was capable of being the National Defender of the Year. Hyperbole or not, it was obviously a compliment to Dodd’s defensive ability. I’m being a broken record at this point, but you need him to rebound. In the last two games, he has 4 boards in 30 minutes. That’s not acceptable. He’s not going to score beyond put-backs and dunks; so when he is on the floor he has to be disruptive defensively, and he has to strong on the boards.”

Update: With Stone on the bench in foul trouble, Dodd had a nice outing against Illinois State. He ran the floor, and was rewarded – finishing 5 for 5 on his FG attempts. He also had 3 blocks. Would have liked to have seen more rebounding though (he had 3 in his 20 minutes). The next two games, he played a total of 34 minutes and had 6 points, 5 boards, and 2 blocks. The scoring with him will always be a bonus. He has disrupt shots, and win on the glass when he gets time.

On 11/22, we said: “Before the opener, we thought Jared Nickens would average 10-12 ppg, boosted by Dion Wiley not being around. Right now, Nickens is at 7ppg, in 24 minutes per. He’s taken five 3′s in each of the 3 games. hitting just 2 of his last 10. He’s a quality shooter, no doubt that his percentage will increase. Need a bit more versatility to his game though. Improvement with the dribble drive, and posting up. He has 7 boards in the opener, but just 7 combined in the last two games. As with Layman, if I’m Turgeon, I’m challenging him to improve on the defense end. With respect to Varun Ram, MD’s second best perimeter defender behind Sulaimon was Wiley. Without Dion being available, you need Layman and Nickens to make opposing wings work.”

Update: It’s been my perception that Nickens effort on the defensive end has been increasing. Last night against Cleveland State, there were several instances where he used his size to make Vikings players uncomfortable. Perhaps that defensive effort came easier with Nickens having a hot shooting night? Whatever the case, the ability is there. Now has to be shown consistently.  Nickens is up to 8.8 ppg. For the year he has just 4 FT attempts, each of them coming against Rhode Island. Finding his way to the line more often needs to happen.

On 11/22, we said: “Three games into his Terps career, Jaylen Brantley has seemingly been written off by many Maryland fans. As we said before the opener, with MD having lost Wiley, Brantley’s one of the more interesting players on the roster. He played 16 minutes vs. Mt. St. Mary’s. He’s played 5 minutes since, including just 1 vs. Georgetown. The clear takeaway there is that Turgeon did not believe Brantley was ready for that stage. Building Brantley up during this season needs to happen. If he can’t get to a point where he provides usable minutes as the reserve 1, that really impacts the roster. If he can, then Sulaimon can spend more time looking for his shot, vs. running the offense when Trimble is on the bench. Brantley has routinely been described as having a quick first-step, and being a good creator for others. Having had a year of JUCO under his belt, it will be very disappointing if he’s just not usable in any capacity this year. With that quick first-step, I’d also hope that he can be an answer defensively against smaller, quicker guards that MD faces this year. As much as any other MD player, it’s important that Turgeon is able to coach up Brantley.”

Update: With MD having back-to-back games in Cancun, Turgeon made sure that Brantley played. Him getting some time, to help avoid extra minutes for his teammates. In these last 3 games, he has played a total of 37 minutes. Against Rhode Island, he had 3 boards, and 3 assists. There were a couple of nice passes. We’ve seen opposing defenses giving him open looks, and him being unwilling to shoot. If he’s not a threat to score, that makes it a 5 on 4 game defensively. Will be interesting to see if he gets any time Tuesday vs. North Carolina.

On 11/22, we said: “Jake Layman has scored in double figures each game so far, and has had at-least 9 attempts per game. He’s leading the team in rebounding (7 per game). After no FT’s against Mt. St. Mary’s he had 7 attempts vs. Georgetown, and 5 vs. Rider.  If he continues to rebound, and get to the line; I’ll be happy. While he’s a capable outside shooter (38% last year on 3.4 attempts per), I’d be fine with more of his offense continuing to come inside. I think MD plays better when he’s aggressively attacking the rim. Defensively, he does his best work at the top of the 1-3-1 Turgeon likes to use. Going forward, Maryland needs him to lock down opposing 3′s. If I’m Turgeon, that’s what I’m challenging him to provide.”

Update: After shooting 38% from 3 last year, he’s down to 32% (8 of 25) to begin 2015-16. His FT attempts are down from 4.0 last year, to 3.5 this year. Just two shot attempts last night vs. Cleveland State. Against Illinois State, he didn’t have a great shooting night, but did help with everything else. He had 6 boards, 2 blocks, 2 steals. In fact, he had had 2 steals in each of these last 3 games. I’d be looking for offense from the inside, and then working out.

On 11/22, we said: “Trimble’s FT shooting (18 of 26, 69%) seems like an early aberration. He didn’t make 86% of his attempts last year by accident. It’s amazing how often he goes to the floor. I’ve found myself holding my breath a few times already this year hoping that he maintains his health. Hasn’t been a great three games for the Sophomore, but when MD needed him the most (vs. Georgetown) he came through. Even with misses, he put his head down and got to the foul line 18 times.”

Update: The Sophomore has made his last 10 FT attempts, but conversely has missed his last six 3’s (5 of 21 from 3, 24% overall). He had 17 assists in this 3 game stretch. He’s going to need to be a high-level overall to beat North Carolina.

Thoughts on North Carolina:

If Maryland plays well, but loses in Chapel Hill that won’t matter much. Winning that road game against a quality opponent, would clearly help the Tournament resume though. If Maryland wants to be a #1 seed, the difference of winning or losing this December 1st game has importance.

Beyond that, it’s a chance to measure yourself against like talent, in a hostile environment.

I’m interested in seeing the battle of the bigs, and how MD does against Carolina’s secondary break.