Today is Saturday, August 8th, and there are 53 games left in the Orioles 2009 season.

To me this what needs to be accomplished from now, through the 2009 calendar year.

August 8th – October 4th

1) August 17th is the last day to sign selections from 2009 First-Year Player Draft who have not exhausted college eligibility. The O’s thought enough of SS Mychel Givens to make him their 2nd round selection in the June 2009 draft. If the O’s do not sign him, they will receive a 2nd-round compensation pick in the 2010 draft. I do not think that is preferable. This Tampa Tribune article gives indications of where things stand:

http://blogs.tampabay.com/preps/2009/07/plants-mychal-givens-remains-unsigned-plans-to-know-future-with-orioles-soon.html

2) The O’s are 46-63, with those 53 games remaining, which include 30 games against the American League East. Wins in the 2009 season, only matter if you are winning games based on the players you count on helping you going forward. I believe that enough of that talent is on the roster now, that finishing with 70 wins (24-29) should be a reachable goal.

3) Matt Wieters has hits in 8 of his last 10 games, and has raised his average to .275. In his last 10 games, Wieters has 2 walks, and just 3 k’s. This shows adjustments, and improvement as Wieters has 12 walks, and 34 k’s overall. I would want to see Wieters play at-least 45 of the remaining games. The next goals are improvement vs. lefties (currently has a .599 OPS against south-paws), and a showing of some power. Wieters has just 5 extra-base hits in his last 82 at-bats.

4) Troy Patton needs to be shut-down. He has logged 108 innings in 2009 over the course of 20 starts. Him coming-back from the labrum injury to be very effective at AA, and healthy enough to make 20 starts overall, far out-weighs the lack of success at Norfolk. Let him go rest, and further rehab his arm in preparation for 2010.

5) Similarly, it might be time to either shut-down, or limit the use of Matt Albers. Albers has now equaled the innings-pitched in the 2008 season, and seen his era jump a full-run in the last week. To me, Albers is an important piece of the bullpen you want to have in 2010. I would hate to see him overextended these next 8 weeks, and suffer a set-back to his own labrum injury.

6) In 2006 Wigginton played in 122 games, in 2007 he played 148 games, and in 2008, he played in 111 games. Currently Wigginton has played in 78 games in 2009. If you want to use him as the stop-gap everyday 3rd-baseman in 2010; I think you need to play him basically everyday to end 2009. That means 45 games or so, and minimal use of Mora. If Wigginton is exposed playing every-game, the organization will have to evaluate how willing they are to use him in that capacity next-year.

7) In Roberts’ first 89 at-bats of the 2nd-half, he is out-producing his 1st-half pace. I would like to see that continue, and Roberts end his 2 year trend of decreasing 2nd-half numbers. He has played in 107 of the Orioles 109 games. I think more rest should have been found for him earlier in the year, but you would like to see him get another 5 games or so off.

8) Chris Tillman enters his start tonight with 10.2 Major League innings. I think he has another 40 innings left in his arm this year. Getting 10 starts at the ML level to end 2009 will prepare him well for 2010.

8a) I have a hard time believing the O’s will allow Matusz to pitch in September. If they do, they should limit his outings to 75-80 pitches, and schedule Berken to follow him in-relief.


9) Adam Jones is not a Free Agent until the 2014 season. If the O’s operated how they operated with Markakis, they would not approach Jones about a contract-extension until after the 2010 season. I believe the O’s should be spending the remainder of the 2009 season, to prepare to provide an extension offer as soon as the season ends. I would want a deal that buys his first 3 years of FA (through the 2016 season). Something along the lines of 7yrs at $70M.

October 5th – December 6th

1) Year-end Organization Meetings… the O’s will review every player in the system and discuss their off-season agenda.

1a) MacPhail has now worked with the Baseball Operations Department the past 2.5 years… he has to decide if he is comfortable with the existing leadership, or if he believes he can improve externally.

1b) If the Front-office brain-trust is returning, I think input should be solicited from all quarters about the return of Dave Trembley and the ML Coaching staff. Ultimately, it is MacPhail’s decision, but all of the Organization should be on the same-page. If people do not believe Trembley or members of the Coaching staff should return; they should be prepared to offer names they believe would help the Organization.

1c) Would MacPhail promote any out of Joe Jordan, Matt Klentak, David Stockstill, John Stockstill, Lee MacPhail IV to Asst. GM?

1d) Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky is the Special Asst. to the President of Baseball Operations. Is the succession plan in-place for MacPhail to turn the reins over to him?

1e) What gains has John Stockstill made as Director of International Scouting? Understanding US/Venezuela relations with Chavez, would the O’s consider partnering with Mora to build a facility there similar to what they now have in the Dominican Republic? What about Asia, and a facility in Korea, or Taiwan?

1f) If David Stockstill retains his role as Director of Player Development, ask him to list his basic goals for the coming year…. Review the coaching in the organization, is the same message being taught from the top down?

1g) If Joe Jordan retains his role as Director of Scouting, ask him if he has sufficient funding…. And to out-line needs for the 2010 draft. Go back and review the 2006, 2007, and 2008 drafts…. Who did the Scouting Department really like going into those drafts, that have underperformed in other organizations?

1h) The O’s are in the American League East, and will continue to have to deal with their division 72 games per-year. I would want to know if Lee MacPhail IV as the Director of Pro Scouting believes the O’s have budgeted the proper amount of resources towards Scouting the AL East? Are further gains in video technology necessary? In all of MLB, who are players that have been identified as potentially available, that could help?

2) After a list has been complied of external players you would like to obtain, attend the General Manager meetings, and discuss in broad terms.

3) Return from the GM meetings and narrow down the teams and players you want to target most at the Winter Meetings.

4) I believe the Arizona Fall League starts the week of October 5th. It is my understanding that every MLB team sends 7 players, and only one Single A player can be sent. The Single A player I would send would be Billy Rowell. In his 2nd-year at Frederick, Rowell actually regressed. Still, Rowell is just turning 21 in September. At age 20, Rowell has 2 full seasons of High A ball under his belt. When Brandon Snyder was 20, he had just spent a full-season at Delmarva. Snyder did not take off, until heading to the Hawaiian Winter League after that year with Delmarva. I think Rowell needs to continue playing. Giving him a clean-slate, and more at-bats could clear his mind and allow him to start to produce.

5) Dec. 1st is the last-date for former Club to offer salary arbitration to receive compensation.
The O’s have to decide if they are going to offer Aubrey Huff arbitration. Frankly, this decision should be known by the Organizational meetings in early October.

If Huff is deemed a Type A Free Agent, and the O’s offered arbitration, and Huff declined; the Orioles would receive two picks. If Huff is deemed a Type B Free Agent, and the O’s offered arbitration, and Huff declined; the Orioles would receive one pick.

Huff could sign with another team prior to arbitration being offered, which would assure a draft pick for the Orioles.

It would be extremely unlikely for arbitration to actually occurr, if it was accepted by Huff. If arbitration did occurr, you would be looking at $8M or so for 2010.

The Orioles could re-sign him before they offered arbitration or after they offer arbitration or after they exchange figures.

The O’s should not be signing him to a multi-year deal, and Huff would have a hard-time turning down arbitration.

The incentive for the O’s to offer arbitration is to hope that Huff declines, and that they get draft-picks in-return. As it is unlikely for Huff to decline, the O’s have to decide if they want Huff back for one-season, and to send Snyder back to AAA.


6) The O’s will have roughly $40M coming off the books, but likely an additional $10-$15M in salary-increases. Combined, that means the O’s should have the ability to add $25-$30M in pay-roll if they so decided. However, the 2009 Free Agent class is abysmal. Clearly you are not replacing your RF, CF, C, or 2nd-baseman. You have cheap answers at DH, and LF with Scott, and Reimold. Even at 1st, and 3rd you have alternatives you are penciling by 2011 at the latest with Snyder, and Bell. You have a starting staff that by late-April 2010 could include Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, & Bergesen. Even if you trade Guthrie, and were to move Hernandez, and Uehara to the bullpen; that still only leaves one rotation spot. Are you really going to invest money (and more importantly years) in a Lackey, or Bedard, or Harden (look at his career innings)?

No, clearly not. Free Agency in 2009 is almost a non-starter for the O’s. I could see the O’s kick the tires on Chone Figgins, but the number of years he wants (not the price) will probably make that unrealistic. I could see the O’s discussing bringing back Miguel Tejada for SS for 1 season, but probably decide against it.

There is payroll flexibility to take on contracts through trades though. (JJ Hardy for SS?)


December 7th – December 31st

1) At this point, the O’s have identified talent they would like to acquire, and have spoken in general terms with teams at the GM Meetings. At the Winter Meetings in Indianapolis, (December 7th – 10th) the intention should be of making specific offers.

2) As previously stated, I do not see the O’s bidding on FA pitching. If they did, I think they should make the offers here. Make the offer you are comfortable with, and provide expiry dates on the offers… if not accepted move on, and address through other means. With Guthrie, Uehera, Bergesen, Hernandez, Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, Berken all options to start for you in 2010; the O’s will not bid on a back of the rotation starter. You either get a guy with front-line stuff (Lackey, Bedard, Harden) or you do not bother bidding. If you are going to target one of those starters, it will have to be early.

3) Rule V draft – Can you obtain a potential LOOGY? The O’s have lots of right-handed options for the 2010 bullpen. Johnson, Ray, Albers, Uehara, Berken, Hernandez, Mickolio, Meredith, Sarfate, Bass… a situational lefty is needed. I would still consider signing BJ Ryan who was just released by the Cubs. 2009 season was abysmal, but 2008 was good enough that I think he could rebound in 2010. If the O’s were to add a Rule V pick, a lefty-specialist is probably the only option that makes sense.

4) At some-point this off-season, you have to obtain a potential long-term SS. If you have not obtained someone like JJ Hardy who can help in 2010, and for several seasons; you have to obtain someone can join Bell, and Snyder in the next-waive of Oriole prospects.

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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