MLB Draft Q&A with David Rawnsley, Matt Garrioch, & Rob Ozga

As we move closer to the June Amateur Draft, Baltimore Sports and Life has reached out to a couple of MLB Draft Analysts for their thoughts.

Those questioned were:

David Rawnsley, Perfect Game
http://www.perfectgame.org
https://twitter.com/#!/PerfectGameUSA
https://twitter.com/#!/DavidRawnsleyPG

Matt Garrioch, SB Nation / Minor League Ball
http://www.minorleagueball.com/
https://twitter.com/#!/mattgarrioch

&

Rob Ozga, Baseball Draft Report
http://baseballdraftreport.com/
https://twitter.com/#!/bbdraftreport

Baltimore Sports and Life thanks these Analysts for taking the time to contribute.

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Per the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, each team is now provided with a slot-based pool for how much they can spend in the Top 10 rounds. For the Orioles, the 2012 Aggregate Bonus Pool comes in lower than what Baltimore has spent during 2008-11. If you go over your pool, there are increasing penalties. What are your thoughts on this provision of the CBA, and what direct differences will we see in this draft because of it?”

Rawnsley: “I personally like the new CBA, although I’m not sure I’m in the majority in the scouting community on this.  If fact, there are still plenty of people, from scouts to agents and certainly the players/parents, who really don’t understand all the ramifications.  What’s for sure is that the draft will be very different this year and no one is really sure what will happen.  There is almost constant discussion among scouts about strategies but very little agreement on what they will be!  You will definitely see the dynamic of how the high school prospect is draft and paid change, there will be definite deflation on their signing bonuses after the first 60-75 picks.”

Garrioch: “I think most teams will spend about 104.99% of what their slots total if they are aggressive and teams that are not may not spend their allotted amount. I think the main difference will be past the 10th round. I don’t that a lot will change at the top of the draft but I think scouts have more responsibility to find out where people will sign and who is likely to go to college.”

Ozga: “The most honest answer I can give here is simple and
straightforward: nobody knows to what extent the new slot restrictions
will impact the draft. The most logical immediate impact could be the
rise of affordable college seniors, junior college prospects willing
to sign underslot deals, and high school players with limited college
options. In the long run, I have no idea what we’ll see. There are
some who think the rule changes could really, really hurt baseball
over time as two-sport stars move away from the diamond to play sports
(e.g. basketball and football) with more immediate benefits. That’s a
nightmare scenario, of course, and one I try not to spend too much
time worrying about. A more optimistic outlook sees a future where the
new monetary restrictions on the draft actually allows for a situation
where the draft does what it was designed to do – reallocate talent to
the weaker teams to create a more equitable competitive environment.

And as much as it pains me to say this, all the recent changes has me
now on board with the idea that it would probably be best to abolish
the draft as a whole. I love following draft season in all four of the
major sports, but the inherent unfairness to the players jumps out at
me now more than it did when I was younger. The whole system is kind
of messed up when you really think about it. But that’s a whole other
discussion altogether…”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Joe Jordan was the Orioles Amateur Scouting Director, and was replaced by Gary Rajsich. Under Rajsich, the Amateur and Pro Scouting Departments have been combined. A number of Pro/Advance Scouts were reassigned to the Amateur Side. What advantages or disadvantages do you think that brings to the organization?’

Rawnsley: “I’m not privy to what the Orioles were thinking but having worked in a ML scouting office for almost 10 years, I can’t imagine any practical advantage of combining the departments.  They serve two different functions entirely.  Amateur scouts dred professional coverage during the summer for the most part, I can assure you that.  You are watching two different types of baseball for two different reasons and you should be reporting to two different people.”

Garrioch: “I don’t deal with scouts a lot. I think the way technology is improving, I think fewer advance scouts are needed because so much is archived and can be watched at the press of a button. Without a combine or a single place to see all the amateur prospects, sending more of them out to watch the amateurs is a better use of employees.”

Ozga: “From the outside looking in, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. I admittedly don’t know a ton about the inner-workings of the new Baltimore front office, but it seems growth through the draft and international market should be the backbone of the new regime. I’m not sure combining the two departments accomplishes that goal, but time will tell. I do like the general idea of shifting scouts between the pro and amateur departments. I’ve always felt that one of the most difficult things about scouting — I’m no scout myself, so this info comes secondhand —  is maintaining perspective on what it is you are evaluating. Judging amateurs in a vacuum can melt your brain overtime. Getting a chance to see some finished products on the pro side gives a scout the opportunity to see what it is they are actuallybuilding towards. As an aside, I’m a big Joe Jordan fan and am looking forward to seeing the impression he makes on the Phillies’ upcoming draft.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “As we get closer to June, the Mock Drafts are increasing, and we continue to see different names associated with Baltimore and the 4th overall pick. Is Stanford’s Mark Appel the only player at the top of the board, with likely no chance of falling to the O’s? Who do you currently project to the O’s?”

Rawnsley: “Ironically, I put Appel at #4 in my first mock draft of the year, published earlier this week (http://www.perfectgame.org/articles/View.aspx?article=6864).  There is no clear order to the top 6-7 picks right now (Gausman, Zimmer, Appel, Zinino, Buxton, Correa, a healthy Giolito) and it’s really just guessing at this point.  It’s believed that Houston and Kansas City really want college pitching, but that’s just speculating, too.  Everyone is in the mix for everyone.”

Garrioch: “In the mock draft John Sickels and I are currently doing, I chose Lucas Giolito to go the O’s.”

Ozga: “I’d actually go out on a limb and say Appel might be the most likely “big name” to fall to the Orioles at four. I think the top three will be, in some order, Byron Buxton, Mike Zunino, and, assuming his arm checks out, Lucas Giolito. If it plays out that way, I’d be all over one of the three college righthanders (Appel, Kevin Gausman, and, my personal preference, Kyle Zimmer) with the fourth overall pick. Another college righty Marcus Stroman, prep lefty Max Fried, and young shortstop Carlos Correa would also currently be on my short list. As much as I like the idea of a future infield that includes Correa, Machado, and Schoop in some combination, I’d guess Baltimore takes their favorite arm in the first. All bets are off if Buxton is still there.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “I’m guessing Baltimore currently has 12 or so players they are extensively Scouting, as possibilities for that 4th pick. Does that seem accurate to you? Is there any player you currently have going 15th-30th, that you think has the potential to wind-up going Top 5?”

Rawnsley: “That sounds like a very realistic number to me at this point and would certainly include most or all of the seven players I listed above.  The only two players I’ve definitely heard in the top 5 that I didn’t list above are SoCal HS lefty Max Fried and Texas A&M RHP Michael Wacha.  Duke RHP Marcus Stroman also gets lots of 6-10 talk, although I’m not sold on him that high at this point.”

Garrioch: “I would say that’s a fair number. As for the 15th-30th, I don’t think anyone that low currently will be picked in the top 5.”

Ozga: “Yeah, I think you pretty much nailed it. I’d venture that the O’s have somewhere between 10-20 names currently under serious consideration for the fourth pick. The top five might be a tough spot for guys further down the board, especially because I think you can put the names Buxton and Zunino down in ink at this point. Zimmer would have been my preseason pick for the second part of your question, but now it seems like he’s a near certainty for at least the top ten. Richie Shaffer could go high to a team who’d rather get a big bat early and then try their like looking for pitching later on in the draft. Addison Russell could also go off the board earlier than expected if teams think he can play shortstop professionally. To answer your question in reverse — which top prospects could fall to the end of the first round — I’d say Walker Weickel and Matt Smoral, who both have top ten talent, could slip for reasons of ineffectiveness (the former) and injury/signability (the latter).”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Due to all the compensation picks, the O’s next selection in the draft will be the 65th overall pick. Who are some players you find interesting in that range of the draft?”

Rawnsley: “I did my Mock Draft V.1 with 60 picks, then did a “Next 10” in alpha order.  I’m going to move a couple of these guys into the top 60 in V.2, but this is who they were:
Next 10 (alphabetical order): RHP Mitchell Brown (Century HS, MN), C Clint Coulter (Union HS, WA), OF Jeff Gelalich (UCLA), RHP Branden Kline (Virginia), RHP Dan Langfield (Memphis), RHP Pat Light (Monmouth), C Wyatt Mathisen (Carroll HS, TX), 3B Corey Seager (Northwest Cabarrus HS, NC), 1B Adam Brett Walker, (Jacksonville), 3B Patrick Wisdom (St. Mary’s).”

Garrioch: “A quick answer is high school talent that slides. Matt Smoral, Trey Williams, Walker Weickel and Nick Williams have been sliding for various reasons. All are top talents and taking a prep talent that slides would be best. A couple college players that might be there are Jeff Gelalich and Stefan Sabol who are both very good talents.”

Ozga: “Projecting that area of the draft at this point is tough, especially this early in the process, but we’ll give it a whirl. At 65, I’d look at one of the talented prep outfielders like Nick Williams (Dom Brown type of player and athlete), Lewis Brinson (reminds me a little of a CF version of Austin Wilson from Stanford), and DJ Davis (four potential plus tools) if they are still available. I’m also particularly high on prep bats CJ Hinojosa and Alex Bregman, both first round quality talents who may fall due to spring injuries. There are almost too many pitching possibilities that I feel bad mentioning any for fear of leaving somebody exciting out. A pair of California prep righties stand out as viable picks at 65: Kieran Lovegrove and Shane Watson. Lefthander Sam Selman is a personal favorite who is slowly starting to put it together this year for Vanderbilt. His stuff is electric when on (mid-90s fastball, low-80s slider, emerging change), but command and inconsistent velocity will almost certainly keep him out of the first. Selman was compared to Brian Matusz before enrolling at Vandy – hopefully that comp doesn’t spook any O’s fans. College reliever and potential pro starter Michael Morin is another favorite. I’m one of those guys who will do anything for a good changeup, and Morin has great one. I’ve compared him to a
young Ryan Madson (pre-Madson’s 2008 big velocity jump), but I’m not sure the industry consensus likes him enough as I do so 65 might be too early.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Going back to the 2011 Draft, what were your impressions of Nick Delmonico and Jason Esposito?”

Rawnsley: “I’m a big Jason Esposito fan and think he will make a very good professional and a solid big league starting third baseman.  He’s much more athletic than you would expect.  The disconnect among scouts on Delmonico’s future position worried me, as catching is the most difficult position on the baseball field and it’s one of those things that if you wonder if he can catch or not, he most likely can’t.  So the bat is going to have to play big.”

Garrioch: “I had both slotted as supplemental round types of talent. Delmonico with higher upside and Esposito a solid future major leaguer that won’t be a star but could help an MLB team. I liked both picks.”

Ozga: “I liked Jason Esposito as a high floor prospect who should have value based on his defense alone. Both the Matt Dominguez and Pedro Feliz comps make a lot of sense to me. I think the pick says something about Baltimore’s commitment to young pitching since, as we all know, nothing says “pitcher’s best friend” quite like a strong defense behind him. I don’t have a positive feeling about Delmonico, but I can’t really back that up with any concrete baseball insight. If I had to try, I guess I’d say I’m not 100% sold on his defense at
third and I don’t think he has the bat for first. If he was willing to move behind the plate, then maybe we’d be on to something. His lack of a plus tool is something I don’t like to see, especially in a prep prospect, but getting a player that many smarter people than I like a whole lot in the sixth round is something even I can’t quibble about. On the whole, outside of a pretty sensational first round selection I wasn’t all that impressed with what Baltimore did in 2011. Esposito and Delmonico were the second and third best prospects (in myestimation) selected by Baltimore in last year’s draft.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “20 year old Cuban OF Jorge Soler is attempting to gain residency in the Dominican Republic. When the new CBA begins July 2nd, there will be a $2.9M International cap for each player. Assuming he signs with someone prior to 7/2, he figures to get a contract of at-least $25M. We’ve seen reports comparing him athletically to Bubba Starling. Based on what you know about Soler, where do you think he would go in the Amateur Draft, if he were eligible to be selected?”

Rawnsley: “I have never seen Soler play and am not qualified to speculate where he would fall in the draft, but I’m not a big fan of giving 18-21 year old players of any nationality and background that kind of money and especially not position players who haven’t proved they can hit.  I’d challenge you to go over a list of all the big contracts given to Cuban position players in the 18-21 year old range that surpassed the normal draft amount for the top 5-10 picks and see if you think the team would do it again.  Yeonis Cespedes is not the comparison here, he’s a 26 year old man.”

Garrioch: “I think he would go between 8th and 25th overall. I can’t see him going before some of the top talent but he wouldn’t slide too far because of his potential.”

Ozga: “I think Soler would have an outside chance of cracking the top ten, but would more reasonably fit in somewhere between picks 11 and 20. Buxton, Zunino, Correa, and maybe Marrero (position scarcity and all) are the only three or four position players that I think you could definitely say would go higher than him. After those three, I think Soler would be on the same level of fellow outfielders Albert Almora and David Dahl. I know I’d be a lot more comfortable if I had the option of drafting him and paying him a slot bonus rather than giving him that $25 million, but such is life.”