In recent weeks, we have spoken to some leading Sabermetricians and some leading National Writers for their thoughts on the Baltimore Orioles as we head into this 2011 season.

You can find the interview with the Sabermetricians (Dan Szymborski, Rich Lederer, and David Golebiewski) at: https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=1753

You can find the previous interview with National Writers (Phil Rogers, Scott Miller, Craig Calcaterra, and Joe Lemire) at: https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=1880

Building off of those interviews, we have again reached out to some of the leading minds throughout baseball for their analysis on the O’s.

Baltimore Sports and Life thanks each of the following writers for taking the time to provide their thoughts:

Mel Antonen, Sports Illustrated / MLB Network Radio (Sirius-XM Radio)
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/writers/mel_antonen/archive/
http://twitter.com/#!/MelAntonen

Matt Klaassen, FanGraphs / Beyond The Boxscore
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php?author=6213
http://www.sbnation.com/users/Matt%20Klaassen
http://twitter.com/#!/devil_fingers

David Pinto, Baseball Musings / Sporting News
http://baseballmusings.com/
http://twitter.com/#!/StatsGuru

Ed Price, FanHouse
http://www.fanhouse.com/staff/ed-price/
http://twitter.com/#!/ed_price

Danny Knobler, CBSSports.com
http://www.cbssports.com/columns/writers/knobler/bio
http://twitter.com/#!/search/danny%20knobler

Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/index.php?author=119
http://twitter.com/#!/Kevin_Goldstein

Note: There are a couple of other writers we expect to be hearing from, and their replies will be edited in once received.

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Presumably with the addition of Guerrero, the Orioles have completed their off-season makeover. The O’s have upgraded at 1st, SS, 3rd, and you can argue LF with Scott going back-out to the field. What are your thoughts on the O’s Winter? With Hardy, Lee, and Guerrero potentially being just 1 year options, does that lower your enthusiasm for what has been accomplished?”

Antonen: “No, there should be enthusiasm going into the season. The best way to look at this season for the Orioles’ fans: Enjoy the incredible offense and hope that the young pitching develops quickly. If that happens, the Orioles will shoot up in the standings.”

Klaassen: “The Orioles seem to be gunning for .500 for the second year in a row. At FanGraphs, I stated that I thought the Reynolds and Hardy trades were nice moves given that 3rd and SS are difficult to fill, the Orioles didn’t have other great options, they didn’t give up much, and Hardy and Reynolds are at-least on the right side of 30. The Lee signing, while not terribly inspired, was not horrible by itself, but combined with the silly Gregg contract and the pesudo-upgrade of Guerrero, the team is limiting it’s longer-term potential.”

Pinto: “The Orioles probably improved, but not definitely.  There are risks to almost every signing.  They need everything to go right.”

Price: “I think the one-year commitments to those three players are smart. Look at Garrett Atkins: It didn’t work out, but it was only a one-year deal, so it didn’t handicap the organization. Same with Millwood. It was an OK winter, not a great one.”

Knobler: “I think the Orioles had a decent winter, considering what they had to work with. I wouldn’t worry about one-year options in those cases, because those aren’t players you want to commit to for longer than a year. If they help the O’s improve, then maybe the team will be in a stronger position next winter as far as attracting free agents. You certainly can’t think that they’re building a long-term lineup with those guys. The long-term improvement needs to come from guys like Adam Jones and Matt Wieters taking a step forward.”

Goldstein: “I think any enthusiasm about the Orioles is based around the young talent they have developed and brought to the big leagues. They’ve added some one-year fixes, and maybe they hope those guys can bring back some more young talent come July. It’s still a rebuilding process.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Guerrero received an $8M contract for 2011 with part of the contract deferred. In 2010, he posted an .841 OPS for the year but just a .748 OPS after the break. (Though he did have a .880 OPS in September) What do you project for him in 2011, and do you think the money spent on his contract would have been better spent by investment in Player Development and Scouting?”

Antonen: “The money was well-spent on Guerrero because the Orioles need offense. If they had given him more than one year, not so much. Guerrero had one bad stretch last year in the second half. Otherwise, he was an incredible hitter. I think he will be productive, but fall short of matching last year’s numbers.”

Klaassen: “In a vacuum, the Guerrero deal isn’t horrible for the money, although it isn’t great. Unfortunately the O’s don’t play in a vacuum (also known as the National League Central), but the American League East, where they have virtually no chance to contend this season. It seems unlikely that Vlad could have gotten that money (even taking into account the deferrals) anywhere else. It isn’t that he’s a terrible hitter, indeed I was surprised to see how many smart people have pointed to his 2nd-half numbers, given that it has been shown time and time again that first and second half splits have almost no predictive significance. For 2011, a .290 / .340 / .470 projection is reasonable, although there is more downside risk because of his age.

As far as how the Orioles allocate their money, yes, they should be investing more in development and scouting if they can, but I’m sure Andy MacPhail realizes that and hopefully isn’t dipping into that money to pay for middling stopgaps like Guerrero and Lee. However, even if it has no effect on the Player Development budget, there are other issues with this signing. First, the Orioles are quite unlikely to contend this season, so even paying the market rate (and they probably paid at least a bit more) for Guerrero doesn’t make sense. The team is in position where they should be looking for bargains, not getting leveraged by a 36 year old right-handed DH who ‘runs’ like he needs a walker. If they just had to bring in a DH (and they didn’t) Russell Branyan could probably be had for no more than $2M dollars (and probably closer to $1M), is probably at-least as good as Guerrero, and can play 1st decently if that is needed.

That brings us to the next issue: The Orioles didn’t need to bring in a DH. Doing so creates a morass of roster management problems without really giving the team much to justify said problems. Luke Scott is probably a better hitter than Guerrero, and probably (along with Nick Markakis) the best hitter on the O’s at this moment. Despite spending most of his time lately at DH, Scott isn’t a bad LF, it’s just that Felix Pie (arguably Baltimore’s best defensive OF) is far better out there. Bringing Guerrero on-board just compounds the mistake the O’s made when they failed to deal Scott last Summer. Some people might wonder about trading a player I just said was the team’s best hitter, but you have to give up value to get it in return. Yes, Scott might get some value back if teams see he can play LF (although I’m pretty sure a few months is not going to change their minds one way or the other), but his value is not going to increase over what it was last summer due to the extra time for which the receiving team would have him under control. If the O’s had traded Scott, they could have still signed Guerrero if they were so inclined and have some sort of prospect(s) from the Scott trade, too.

Even if they had traded Scott, they still should not have signed Vlad, because they still could have played Pie in LF, and Reimold at DH. The difference would be smaller than some might think – Pie’s defensive skills in the OF make up for a chunk of the offensive difference between him and Scott, and Reimold is a decent hitter whom they need to find out about. Not only are the Orioles spending a lot of money on something like a two win improvement (which would make more sense if they were trying for their 87th win rather than their 81st), they’re also making their team older when they should be getting younger; while giving up a sizable chunk of opportunity cost by somehow blocking both Pie and Reimold. And thats without considering how much more money this is costing them.”

Pinto: “Yes.”

Price: “I don’t think it’s a bad signing, because it’s for one year. He should hit fairly well if rested enough. The development and major-league payroll budgets should not be mutually exclusive.”

Knobler: “I would hope that it isn’t an either/or on spending for Guerrero vs. spending on development and scouting. I think he’s a decent risk on a one-year deal, but the reason he was available late in the winter (and on a one-year deal) is that people aren’t convinced he’s having a late-career revival. He had a good year with the Rangers, no question, but we can’t forget that a year ago, at the end of his time with the Angels, he looked old and done.”

Goldstein: “I didn’t like the deal, and more than anything, it just confused me.  It seemed like Baltimore was very much negotiating against themselves.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “I’m looking at a basic everyday lineup of:

Roberts 2nd
Markakis RF
Lee 1st
Guerrero DH
Scott LF
Reynolds 3rd
Wieters C
Jones CF
Hardy

Who in the American League East has a better a lineup 1-9?”

Antonen: “The Yankees still have the best lineup in the AL East, but the Orioles are improved, but there are questions: Will Lee be healthy? Will Reynolds adjust to the AL and can he cut down on his strikeouts? Are expectations of Matt Wieters too high and will he be an average player? Will J.J. Hardy stay healthy and hit for power? The Orioles will be much stronger at the bottom of the order, and that’s a good thing for them.”

Klaassen: “Despite the Orioles’ off-season improvements, at-least two, and probably three teams in the division project to hit better in 2011. Offensively speaking, the Red Sox are clearly superior – Dustin Pedroia is as good or better offensively as anyone on the Orioles, and he isn’t close to being Boston’s best. Indeed Kevin Youkilis and Adrian Gonzalez might be the two best hitters in the American League not named Miguel Cabrera. The Yankees are still better too, despite their age. Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira had down seasons last year (for them) but their past record indicates they are still tremendous hitters. Robinson Cano is a better hitter than any current Oriole, and someone could make the case for Swisher (the Yankees’ version of Luke Scott), too. It’s too close to call, so one could make an argument for Baltimore having a better offense than Tampa Bay in 2011 (of course the Rays are vastly superior in the field) but the numbers generally give Tampa a slight edge. Moreover, that isn’t taking into account that the Rays have set themselves up for some potentially productive platoons. The only AL East lineup they are better than is the Blue Jays, who are also considerably younger than the Orioles, since their front office is to be playing for contention in the future, vs. mediocrity now. The Orioles do have some ‘breakout potential’ in Wieters and Jones, and Markakis is young enough that regaining his 2008 mojo isn’t out of the question. On the other hand, the amount of injury or collapse potential in Lee, Guerrero, and Roberts is equal or greater than that of the Yankees’ old-guard.”

Pinto: “New York, Boston, Tampa Bay.”

Price: “Boston for sure. Probably the Yankees. Toronto might, if every player matches his best season from 2009 or 2010.”

Knobler: “I’d take both the Red Sox and the Yankees ahead of that lineup. Hard to say on the Rays.”

Goldstein: “The other four teams.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Another recent addition for Baltimore was 2x All-Star Justin Duchscherer. Over the past two seasons, Duchscherer has pitched just 28 innings. Duchscherer has made clear he wants to start, and if he is healthy the O’s are going to provide that opportunity. What do you project for him?  Injuries will occur, and Tillman and Britton will join the rotation at some point. Do you like giving Tillman and Britton further time in AAA, or would you prefer the O’s use a season where contention is not expected; to give additional Major League experience to the prospects?”

Antonen: “Generally speaking, it is always good to give the prospects as much time as possible to develop, so that’s why Duchscherer’s comeback is important. He buys time for the prospects to develop. No need to rush Britton, and if works slowly into the system, that’s usually the best plan. But, as always, young pitchers can surprise and be ready much sooner.”

Klaassen: “It is difficult to say how Duchsherer will do this season, either in terms of the quality or quantity of his performance. At the most optimistic (without wish casting) I’d say 100 innings or so of ERA in the 4.40 range. It’s not a bad signing, as it doesn’t cost much. It really depends on how much time that Tillman and Britton really need in AAA. If they need it, this is fine. If they don’t, there’s no reason to keep them down there any longer. With that said, every team could use a 6th starter (at-least), and the Orioles aren’t taking a big risk here. A nice signing.”

Pinto: “Duchscherer will pitch well when in the lineup, but I doubt he gets more than 10 starts. Tillman doesn’t have anything to prove in the minors.  Zach could use a little more work on his control.  I’d put Tillman in the bullpen to get experience, then move him to the rotation when someone goes down.”

Price: “Hard to project Duchscherer given his health record. Tillman needs to learn to pitch at the major-league level. Britton I don’t know as much about. I believe the Orioles won’t rush anyone.”

Knobler: “I can’t tell you whether Tillman and Britton are ready, and I certainly wouldn’t want to guess that Duchscherer will be healthy. With his history, I’m not going to believe he will be able to pitch until I actually see him on the mound in a regular season game.”

Goldstein: “I don’t think even Baltimore is counting on much from Duchscherer.  If he does, it’s just gravy.  I don’t have a problem with taking the risk there, but I don’t think they’re expecting much.  I’d much rather get Tillman and Britton more acclimated.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Andy MacPhail is of course the Orioles President of Baseball Operations.  His contract expires after the end of the 2011 season. Most O’s fans believe his contract will be extended unless the team shows zero progression this year. Do you think the O’s should extend his contract? If he were not to be retained, or if he left for a position in the Commissioner’s Office – as has been occasionally rumored – give me a name of an Executive you think could make sense for the Orioles.”

Antonen: “Orioles fans need to hope, for stability’s sake, that MacPhail stays around. He’s proven he knows how to build a club, and any change at the top could hinder the development. Of course, some one with similar philosophies could come in and continue MacPhail’s work. He’d make an excellent commissioner and probably wouldn’t mind the challenge of that job.”

Klaassen: “I hate it when other people say this, so I’m sorry to say it now: there’s so much we don’t know about how things work internally for me to give a definite answer one way or the other. Despite my somewhat negative tone towards the Orioles 2010-11 off-season, I was a pretty big fan of what MacPhail did when he first arrived. It wasn’t just the Bedard trade (one of the biggest ripoffs of recent years), either. Not only dumping Miguel Tejada’s contract, but also getting value back was extremely impressive, and things like getting Felix Pie for cents on the dollar are the kinds of moves smart GMs make. The last two off-seasons have been puzzling. Maybe they were made with other moves in mind, and those things just didn’t quite pan out. Markakis hasn’t been anywhere close to his 2008 performance since that season, and even if ‘superstar’ is an unreasonable expectation for almost any player, Wieters and Jones could have reasonably be expected to be closer to ‘very good’ rather than the average-ish performances the last couple of seasons. With that in-perspective, adding bit parts for too much last season may have made a little more sense (even if I and others didn’t like it then either). However, now it is happening for the second season in a row. I’m tempted to speculate on pressure from ownership, but that’s the sort of thing I don’t like reading from others as I mentioned earlier. At the moment, MacPhail looks like he’s a bit behind his colleagues in the AL East. Then again, with the emergence of Toronto’s Alex Anthopolous, we might be talking about 4 of the 10 best front offices in baseball. The Orioles might be able to do better, but they almost certainly could do worse. The team overall seems to be on the upswing despite the recent obsession with aiming for mere respectability (and missing), so it’s better to extend MacPhail for another two or three years than to risk being left empty-handed. Hey, it won’t cost them near the money they’re burning on Kevin Gregg!”

Pinto: NA.

Price: “I don’t think MacPhail’s contract is a big issue. And it wouldn’t be right to judge him solely on 2011 record; the question is whether he has the organization going in the right direction, and so far, I’m encouraged. A couple of lesser-known front-office people who could move up someday: Braves Director of Baseball Administration John Coppolella and Reds Vice President and Assistant General Manager Bob Miller.”

Knobler: “It’s always going to be difficult in Baltimore, as long as Peter Angelos owns the team. But I give Andy credit for sticking with his plan to develop the young pitchers. There is potential there, but young players, and particularly young pitchers, require patience that is hard for teams and harder for fans. Andy’s weakness has been in making good judgements on filling out the major-league roster. That made the O’s a worse big-league team than they should have been last year, but it probably doesn’t affect the long-term chances of success. I think there are plenty of execs in baseball capable of running teams, guys like Rick Hahn with the White Sox, Allard Baird of the Red Sox, Charley Kerfeld of the Phillies. But with Angelos sticking his hand into all major decisions, running the Orioles isn’t easy.”

Goldstein: “I think MacPhail is going to stay.  If they’re going to go new, I think they should go young and find a new name who can stick around for a while.  John Coppolella with the Braves would be a great person to give that opportunity to.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “I think what the O’s get out Arrieta is a real key to the overall rotation. Let us take a look at some of Arrieta’s numbers.
2010 MLB:
6-6, 4.66 era, 100.1 IP, 106 hits, 9 hr’s, 48 walks, 52 k’s, .767 OPS, 0.80 G/F
2010 AAA:
6-2, 1.85 era, 73 IP, 48 hits, 3 hr’s, 34 walks, 64 k’s

What do you predict for the young RHP in 2011?”

Antonen: “It’s difficult to make predictions. I assume he’ll make progress.”

Klaassen: “I’m always leery of giving out single player projections out of context, and pitchers (especially young ones) are collectively a strange beast, but an ERA between 4.20 and 4.50 over 150 to 180 innings seems reasonable. He needs to get those walks under control though.”

Pinto: “His hits allowed in the minors last year were out of sync with his strike out rate.  I expect him to post an ERA in the mid fours unless he gets his walks down.”

Price: “I haven’t seen Arrieta much. He’s 25, and he’s pretty much shown he can handle AAA. But it’s hard to ask him to be the key to the rotation.”

Knobler: “I like Arrieta a lot. I hate predicting how any young pitcher is going to do in a single year, but I like his chances long-term.”

Goldstein: “4.23 ERA, much higher strikeout rate, like him ever better long term as a solid No. 3 starter.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “The O’s added 2 former Managers (Randolph, and Russell) to their bench. As well as Adair who had been the Pitching Coach in Seattle as their Bullpen coach, and replaced their Hitting Coach (Crowley) and Pitching Coach (Kranitz) with Presley and Connor. Do you feel the staff has been upgraded? Do you think it (the Coaching) has any impact on the field?”

Antonen: “Coaching definitely has an impact on the field. Good coaches teach and motivate players and keep them in line with their work.”

Klaassen: NA.

Pinto: “The staff takes their cues from Buck Showalter.  Buck will be the driving force, and the coaches will reflect his vision.  He’s definitely brought in a Yankees influence, which is probably a good thing.”

Price: “Coaching has some impact, probably not as much as some people might think. I know Presley and Connor personally and admire both of them.”

Knobler: “I think the coaching staff is important, and I think the O’s have had problems in that area before. I like Rick Adair a lot, but I don’t know what kind of impact he can have as the bullpen coach. Having former managers on a staff can be useful, if they’re talented. It’s also useful to have former managers around when the manager is young and inexperienced, which obviously isn’t the case with Showalter.”

Goldstein: “It does have an effect, but it’s hard to measure exactly how much.  I’m a big Willie Randolph fan, and think he will help.  Otherwise, it’s hard to say if these kind of hires or good or bad until they start interacting with the players.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “In their organizational reviews, Keith Law / ESPN ranked the O’s 24th overall, and Baseball America ranked the O’s 21st. The Orioles have been hurt by  both their lack of compensatory draft-picks, and International talent. The Toronto Blue Jays General Manager Alex Anthopoulus let go of their Pacific Rim / Asia Scout Rob Ducey in October 2009 stating they would increase their focus on Latin America along with their Amateur and Pro Scouting. Correspondingly they would be decreasing their focus on Europe and Asia. Should the O’s adopt a similar philosophy?”

Antonen: “There’s no way to know. For any team, spending money on scouting is critical. The more scouts you have and the more amateur players can be seen and evaluated, the better. Scouting can’t be under-estimated.”

Klaassen: NA.

Pinto: “It takes a lot more money to compete in Asia.  Money used to be a plus for Baltimore.  They would have probably been better off spending $8 million on Latin American prospects than on Vlad Guerrero.”

Price: “I think teams should look for players everywhere. There’s more bang for the buck in Latin America, but more competition as well. Hiring the best scouts is a good way to scout, and Baltimore has some good ones.”

Knobler: “Not necessarily. The most important thing is to have good scouts and give them the resources to go find — and sign — players. Players in all areas of the international market have gotten more and more expensive in recent years.”

Goldstein: “Not necessarily.  I think the game is becoming more global, and the teams that get in early in certain markets will reap the benefits later.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “The O’s were 37-37 in their last 74 games last season, with a 4.13 ERA. After Showalter took over, the O’s had 36 Quality Starts in 57 games with a 3.16 ERA. The O’s have now majorly upgraded at 1st, SS, and 3rd. To me, it should be realistic for this team to compile a 4.20 team era, and score 115+ more runs. As is, I think their legitimate (median case) prospects are between 81-85 wins. Looking at the current roster, would record would you predict for the Orioles in 2011?”

Antonen: “The Orioles could finish .500 if everything goes right. The success of the season depends on the growth of the young pitching. It would be better for the Orioles to have developed three young pitchers and finish fifth than to somehow finish third and not have established rotation stability.”

Klaassen: “Buck Showalter has his virtues, but this ‘Showalter has turned the team around!’ parade bandwagon is pretty funny given how what we know (or better, what we do not know) about how Managers effect their teams’ performances, not to mention random variation in player performance across arbitrary in-season splits. ‘Strawberry hit a homerun… I told him to do that!’ The Orioles could be better in 2011, not only because of their upgrades, but because of simple regression to the mean. Having typed that, a 4.20 team ERA seems pretty optimistic given that among the starters only Matusz is likely to better that number next season. Scoring 115 more runs is reasonable, if also on the optimistic side (remember that the starting nine have to rest sometime, and given the age of some players along with recent health issues for Hardy and Roberts). The 2011 Orioles should be better than their predecessor. I haven’t starting dialing in my ‘big spreadsheet’ yet, but off the cuff, I would project Baltimore’s wins between 77 to 82.”

Pinto: “76-86.  Ten wins is a huge one-year jump from the team.  They would need both improvement from their young players and good, bounce back years from their veterans.  Showalter seemed to convince the Orioles pitchers to be aggressive in the strike zone last season, and it worked for them.  We’ll see if they can keep it up.  Eighty one wins is not out of the question, but it will be a stretch.”

Price: “I think .500 would be a significant accomplishment — a 15-win leap. Tampa Bay is not as good as last year, but Toronto may be better. I see a 75-win team or so.”

Knobler: “I think you’re being realistic, that the Orioles can get to .500 or maybe just above.”

Goldstein: “My gut says you are about right, but the fact remains that they are in the American League East, which is the never-ending nightmare.  I’ll be optimistic like you, just not as much, and say 80-82.”

Note from Baltimore Sports and Life:
I will again be a guest of Jerry Coleman on Fox 1370 this Friday (the 11th) from 5 to 6pm. You can stream the show at http://sportswithcoleman.com/

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Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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