On our Message Board, there is a thread (https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=493) dedicated to the predictions I have received for the Baltimore Orioles 2012 season. The basic expectation is that the O’s will be around 70 wins, +/- a game or two.

This seems pretty reasonable. In 2011, with many expecting the Birds to be just under .500, the Orange & Black failed to win even 70 games for the fifth consecutive season. If I had to bet my house, I’d agree that somewhere between 69-74 wins is the most likely outcome.

Still, I don’t believe everything has to go right for the Orioles to have their first non-losing season since ’97.

The offense was competent last year (the O’s finished 7th in the American League in runs), and has a chance to be improved (Reimold in LF, Davis over Lee at 1st, Betemit over Guerrero at DH) in ’12.

Is it likely that Britton, Matusz, Arrieta, Hunter, Chen, and Hammel each pitch towards their ceilings? Obviously it is not. That said, is it completely implausible to you that the makings of a decent staff exists? Would it shock you if any of those 6 starters pitched like a league average 3rd starter? Am I alone in believing that Britton and Matusz still have the upside of being a league average 2nd starter?

What percentage chance would you give on the following occurring in ’12?:

1) Between Britton, Matusz, and Arrieta you have two 3’s, and a 2.
2) Wieters finishes with a .825+ OPS.
3) Hardy basically replicates ’11.
4) Reynolds defense returns to ’09, ’10 levels and his option is picked up for ’13.
5) Markakis does not reach his ’08 production, but gets back to his ’09, ’10 levels.
6) Out of Hunter, Hammel, and Chen the O’s get at-least one more productive starter.
7) Reimold and Davis each finish with an OPS around .750 with 20-25 homers.

Is it likely that all of those things happen? No, I’d agree that it is not. All of them individually are reasonable though. If the majority of them happened, the O’s can be right around .500.

Should .500 be the expectation? No. Is a .500 season possible? Yes.  Should a .500 season occur, it will be because the O’s younger players (particularly the pitching) have stepped-forward. Watching how things unfold in 2012 will be interesting. There is enough talent on the roster, for the O’s to exceed the minimal expectations that have been placed on them as this year begins.

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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