After a 10-4 Father’s Day win vs. the Marlins; the Baltimore Orioles are 20-50 for the year.

BSL’s Oriole Analysts Bob Harkins, John Perrotto, and Brandon Warne give their thoughts on this disaster of a season, and where the O’s go from here.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Baltimore Sports and Life:  As Dan Szymborski pointed out on June 7th, Davis is literally on-pace for the worst season ever at this point. A truly mind-boggling statement. When he signed his extension,  numerous analysts across the game warned that large scale regression was possible. Ryan Howard comps were everywhere. That Davis was in his 30’s to begin the deal, and was already the definition of a Three Outcome player (Walk, K, Homer) and that those players have traditionally not aged well. I was likely the only idiot out there who believed he’d not only provide value equal to his contract, but have the chance to provide surplus value. I did acknowledge the possibility of Davis’ collapsing, and that the deal could go South quick; but I thought that worst case scenario was unlikely.

In ’12 he was solid.
In ’13 he was MVP caliber.
In ’14 he was horrific.
In ’15, he was again at a superior level.

Everyone acknowledged that if the contract was to have any chance of success, he’d have to be productive in the initial years of the deal.

’16 had him around his career averages.
’17 saw him regress.
’18 has him looking completely unable to compete.

Davis has $17M base salaries annually during ’19-’22, and $42M of deferred money owed between 2023-2037.

At this point, the O’s would kill for seasons like ’12, and ’16.
Do you think he’s capable of returning to that level, or do you think he has physically regressed (and is mentally defeated) to a point where even that relatively minimal level is unreachable?

If the answer is no, should the O’s effectively pay for him to go away?  The idea that they have payroll flexibility in coming years, and they should use that flexibility to rid themselves of a player currently performing at the lowest level ever (that obviously anything else they put out, would be superior.).

Harkins: At the beginning of the season, I thought Davis would be key to the success of the Orioles offense – if he could simply split the difference between his best seasons and his 2017 season and return to an OPS+ in the 110-120 range, it would provide a huge boost to the middle of the Orioles offense. Obviously that didn’t happen, and I think now the hope would be that he could simply return to a 2017 level and an OPS+ near 100, tons of strikeouts and 25-30 homers.

It’s tempting to cut bait and I certainly understand the sentiment, but with another four years left on that seven-year, $161 million deal, I’d be hesitant to do so. I think my strategy with Davis at this point would be to hit the reset button. Ask him if he’d be willing to take an extended vacation/DL stay. Perhaps his back were to act up. Or his neck or something. Make something up. Then go on a nice rehab outing. Let him catch his breath and regroup.

I’m not saying Davis is or should be a part of the coming rebuild and I’m not expecting him to ever again approach his career years. But if you can get him back to a level where he’s cranking homers on  a semi-regular basis, you might be able to move him at next year’s trade deadline. You’d still have to eat a ton of salary, and you probably wouldn’t get much back in return, but it’s better than nothing.

Perrotto: This contract is right on the borderline of crossing into disaster territory. If you read between the lines of Buck Showalter’s recent comments, it is easy to draw the conclusion that the Orioles seriously doubt that Davis can get back to his former level of play. Or even close. Since this is already a lost year, the Orioles can afford to ride it out for the rest of the season. However, if Davis doesn’t show any significant signs on bouncing back then it’s time to move on and absorb the hit.

Warne: I don’t really see any reason to move on from him right now. If the Orioles are going to be bad for the foreseeable future — and I think they are — you may as well ride out your sunk costs. If he bounces back, you have a trade chip with the idea that you’ll have to eat most of the money anyway. If you were OK with moving on and paying him anyway, there’s no real gripe there. I think you sit him down though and tell him to fight through it, and that he has your support and you’re going to keep putting him out there as long as he’s not being crushed mentally. Or if he is, you could sit him for a while and then give him another shot. I’m not sure there’s an easy answer, though.

Baltimore Sports and Life: As Bob recently wrote, the silver lining in a lost season is that there is no ambiguity about what they are. The O’s know they are horrible, which is a preferable position vs. being within shouting distance of the 2nd Wild Card and believing they are a pseudo contender.  There are moves coming this Summer which will have impact on the franchise for sometime.

EVP of Baseball Operations Dan Duquette has an expiring contract. As does Manager Buck Showalter.
Maybe it’s just talk, but VP of Baseball Operations Brady Anderson is on record as saying he doesn’t want Duquette’s job. (He effectively stated he likes facets of his current position, and promotion wise would be looking to be President, above the EVP / GM position currently held by Duquette.)

There has been a widely held belief that Duquette will not return. That Anderson will take over, and Showalter (who stated this Spring he’d like to Manager for several more years) would get that option, or be promoted to a Front Office position with Anderson.

If Anderson is going to be the guy leading the Baseball Operations Department going forward; shouldn’t he take over the role now before we see trades of Machado, Britton, etc?
If none of them (Duquette, Anderson, Showalter) are going to be part of the leadership going forward; should they be at the helm now?

Harkins: You absolutely should move people into their new positions (or out the door) now before the big decisions are made. You need to put your vision in place now, and the people who are 100 percent behind the vision need to be making the decisions to put it in motion. You don’t want lame ducks trading away your key pieces. I wrote about this in late April and my stance hasn’t changed. In that piece, I tried to make my point by pointing out a huge trade that benefited the Orioles. The other side was negotiating from a lame duck perspective – a GM desperately trying to save his job – and it turned out to be a disaster.

Perrotto: In talking to executives from other teams, it appears that Brady Anderson has pretty much become the de facto head of the Orioles’ baseball operations. If I were making the call, I would totally blow things up and get rid of everyone. The Orioles have had a nice run under Duquette and Showalter but it’s time to makes major changes. However, it is quite clear that the Angelos family are very fond of Anderson and are going to keep him. In that case, they need to hire a capable veteran No. 2 executive to provide guidance to such a neophyte. As far as firing Duquette during the season, it would just be window dressing since Anderson has already apparently ascended to such a position of power.

Warne: Yeah, I think that has to happen. The Twins did something sort of similar, as Terry Ryan was fired during the 2016 season with his assistant taking over in the interim. He was more or less given that spot as an audition, with the promise that he’d be thrown into the pool of candidates that offseason when they opened up the job to outsiders. That might be the sort of thing they do here — find the most trusted, realiable voice in the building and build around them as an audition. In the Twins’ case, it was Rob Antony, long believed to be Ryan’s heir at GM. He did a pretty good job — including trading Eduardo Nunez for Adalberto Mejia — and while he didn’t get the job, he’s still in the organization as the team’s No. 3 in command. 

Baltimore Sports and Life: If the O’s are not convinced about turning over the keys to Anderson, there are other options. Here are four:

Jason McLeod – Chicago Cubs, SVP, Player Development & Amateur Scouting
Amiel Sawdaye – Arizona Diamondbacks, SVP, & Assistant General Manager
Mike Elias – Houston Astros, Assistant General Manager, Player Acquisition
Josh Byrnes – LA Dodgers, SVP, Baseball Operations

Is there a name there which appeals to you? Is there someone not mentioned you’d like to see the Orioles consider?

EDIT: The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported Friday evening that the O’s have interviewed former Dodgers GM Ned Colletti.

Harkins: I like Byrnes a lot. He’s smart and he’s humble and has a great eye for talent. When you look at the Astros’ amazing rebuild, one thing you notice is that they made plenty of mistakes. But they stockpiled so much talent, and developed that talent along the way, that they were able to survive the mistakes quite well. The Orioles are going to need to do something similar — stockpile and develop a load of talent for this rebuild to work. Byrnes is a guy who can pull it off. Here are some names he’s grabbed in the draft during stops with the Diamondbacks, Padres and Dodgers: Max Scherzer, Brett Anderson, A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Owings, Chase Anderson, Adam Eaton, Zach Eflin, Travis Jankowski, Hunter Renfroe, Trea Turner, Walker Buehler.

He also effectively launched the managing careers of both A.J. Hinch and Dave Roberts. He pulled Hinch from the front to the bench in Arizona, then recommended him to the Astros, and pushed the Dodgers to hire Roberts to replace the departing Don Mattingly.

Perrotto: Jason McLeod. He has worked for two of the game’s best organizations in the Red Sox and Cubs and is an exceptionally bright guy.

Warne:  I’m not sure there’s a bad name in the mix. I like McLeod from reading up on him during the Twins’ search, but for me, grabbing front office talent is about finding organizations you’d like to imitate and get talent from them. All four of these guys come from organizations that should be emulated moving forward. I don’t know much about Elias, but I think the other three are all terrific choices.

Baltimore Sports and Life:  The most valuable commodity in baseball are cheap productive players, who have years of remaining team control.  For Machado, would you rather see the O’s get back young Major Leaguers with some control or prospects further away with longer-control?

Harkins: Both. I think you need to get at least one young player either already in the majors or on the cusp of being so and a couple of high-end prospects. If you can negotiate some additional prospects who are farther away from the big leagues, then do so.

Perrotto: Considering the state of the farm system, the Orioles aren’t going to contend anytime soon so I would be more amenable to acquiring longer-term assets. Furthermore, teams would be more likely to give up prospects than young major leaguers in return for only less than a full year of control over Machado.

Warne: A mix of the two to mitigate risk. But then again, it all depends on the team. I wrote last week that the Indians are a good fit, and in that case, I’m targeting an MLB-ready catcher (Mejia) and outfielder (Allen), taking back some dead money (Kipnis) and maybe looking at either a lottery ticket (Salazar) or some other type of arm (McKenzie/Bieber). But that all changes depending on what team you’re dealing with. If it’s the Cardinals, for instance, I’d probably want an MLB-ready outfielder and some pitching — two things they’re typically flush with. But if it’s a team that has a high-ceiling 19-year-old player — hypothetically, a Vlad Guerrero Jr. type — I’m not picking a lower-ceiling guy just for the certainty.

Baltimore Sports and Life: Trading players who are not under team-control past ’18 (Machado, Britton, Brach…. Jones if he waives his NTC) has to happen. Trading O’Day, and Trumbo if you can eat some contract, and move them for anything is something to consider. Possibly trading Schoop (currently slumping),  Gausman, Bundy, and Givens are legitimate questions to ponder in my opinion. I don’t think you have to trade Schoop / Gausman / Bundy / Givens now; but it’s not hard to craft an argument for doing so.  Where do you fall on this?

Harkins: I’d pretty much listen to anything at this point. If a team comes calling and really loves Schoop/Gausman/Bundy/Givens then you have to listen. But you’re not going to lose them soon and they’re not expensive, so you’re more or less dealing from a position of strength with those players. What you don’t want to do is sell low, as you would be doing with Schoop right now. You very well could see opposing GMs circling like vultures, hoping to swoop in and try to acquire Schoop on the cheap, or thinking they can do better with Gausman. So while it doesn’t hurt to listen, be patient. There is no need to get trigger happy with these guys. This also points back to the previous question about the importance of having the right people in the front office making the decision and executing the team’s future vision.

Perrotto: At this point, the Orioles must be open to trading anybody if it helps them increase their overall organizational talent level. There can be no untouchables. If someone is willing to pay a big price for someone like a Dylan Bundy or Jonathan Schoop then the Orioles have to seriously consider it.

Warne: I’m willing to move anything that’s not up-the-middle talent, and I’d also consider moving Schoop as well. I just would want to get away from the guys who don’t have a ton of discipline at the plate, honestly. Just a personal preference. At this point, I’m not sure you can move Gausman or Bundy unless someone overwhelms you in a deal. 

Baltimore Sports and Life: If Schoop is not traded this Summer (and his play rebounds) the O’s will have the option of looking to trade him this Winter, or pursue an extension. If they looked at an extension, what contract would make sense to you?

Harkins: Schoop is already making $8.5 million this year, thanks to arbitration and his big 2017 season, so you’re probably looking at a 4-5-year deal in the range of $40-55 million. Starlin Castro, Jason Kipnis and Rougned Odor are all on long-term deals paying roughly $8.5 per year, so Schoop is probably going to surpass that, depending on how far he rebounds in 2018.

Perrotto: I’d say somewhere in the $80-$85 million range for five years.

Warne: He’s a 26-year-old second baseman hitting .270/.309/.462 over the last three years (2016-18) and is a career .259/.296/.443 hitter in nearly 2,500 PA. I would probably go year-to-year.  

Baltimore Sports and Life: The O’s have $5.5M to spend Internationally. As BSL Poster Drew Coker wrote at the message board:

“For the 2016-17 year, the Orioles signed a total of 5 international amateurs. FIVE.
They spent a total of 260k, with 150k of that going to one signing –  Cesar Angomas.

In 2014-15 they had 14 total signings, with a total of 980k being spent. They were 2nd to last that year in spending. In 2015-16 they had 20 total signings, with around 1M being spent.”

The 2018 Orioles have a .286winning percentage after 70 games. As frustrating as that has been to watch, I’ll be far more irritated if the O’s again punt on their International spending.
Is there any rational reason for the O’s International avoidance?

Harkins: None that I can think of. Why anyone would more or less avoid tapping into a relatively cheap talent pipeline makes no sense to me, and it’s probably what’s puzzled me the most about Peter Angelos. Foreign-born players make up 27 percent of big league rosters and I believe the percentage in the minors is closer to 50 percent. The Orioles are pretty punch punting on the whole thing, which is a head-scratcher.

Perrotto: Absolutely none. It is mind boggling that the Orioles basically ignore such a great source of talent.

Warne: It has baffled me from a distance, though I do wonder if it goes back to when they kind of ticked off Korea when they signed Seong-Min Kim back in 2012. Otherwise, I don’t know….do they just think it’s a poor investment for the likelihood the player breaks though? I’m baffled.

Baltimore Sports and Life: The O’s Opening Day payroll in ’17 was $164M. In ’18, it was $148.5M. (The average for the two years being $156.25M.)  In ’19, they are locked into $67M prior to Arbitration for Schoop, Gausman, Beckham, Joseph, and Givens.  In ’18, those five are making a combined $19.2M. Let’s say with raises they get approximately $33M combined in ’19.

That’s $100M for:

Davis, Schoop, Beckham, Trumbo
Cobb, Gausman, Bundy, Cashner
O’Day, Givens, 
Joseph

Let’s say another $5.4M for Mancini, Sisco, Hays, Mountcastle, Bleier, Castro, Scott, Wright, Hess.

Theoretically, you’d have $50.85M +/-  ($156.25M average Opening Day payroll over ’16 and ’17 – $105.4M) to spend if desired.

Based on players currently under team control, you are looking at something like:

Infield: Davis, Schoop, Beckham, Mountcastle, Sisco
Outfield: Mancini, Mullins, Hays (Santander, Stewart)… 3 of 5.
DH: Trumbo
Bench: Joseph, Santander, Rickard, ?
Rotation: Bundy, Gausman, Cobb, Cashner, Hess
Bullpen: Givens, O’Day, Bleier, Castro, Scott, Wright, Araujuo

Trades of Machado, and Britton could bring back immediate options which could improve the mix above.

Such as if you could move Machado to the Cubs for Russell and Almora.

As we talked about in the initial question; you could pay Davis to go away.

You could also invest into FA additions to further improve the roster.

You could reinvest some of those funds into Baseball Operations as a whole.  Improving the Scouting, Player Development, and Analytics Departments.

What would you be looking to accomplish?

Harkins: First of all, I’d have my vision in place, and my people to operate that vision, in place already. And I’d be attacking this now, not at the end of the season. I’d invest heavily in international and domestic scouting (but especially international), I’d SPEND international money and look for ways to acquire more. As I mentioned above I wouldn’t pay Davis to go away yet, because I still have to pay him anyway. I’d give it another year to see if I can help him rebound enough to trade him, so I can salvage some of that money. And while I wouldn’t look to spend big in free agency, I’d look to mine it for overlooked players I can steal at bargain-rates.

Perrotto: The best teams in Orioles’ history have had rosters heavy with homegrown players and that is the best chance the organization can hope to consistently contend while playing in a division with two franchises, the Yankees and Red Sox, that have much greater spending power.

Warne: Starting over. Burn it to the ground as much as possible. Too many assets are tied up in non-elite corner players. Bring in someone from the outside and let them gut it to the studs.

Baltimore Sports and Life: The 1988 Baltimore Orioles started 0-21, on the way to a 54-107 (.335 winning percentage) finish. They finished 23.5 games behind 6th place Cleveland in the AL East. I thought that standard for ineptitude would never be replicated. The 2018 Baltimore Orioles are on pace for 456 wins, and might give the ’62 Mets a run.

Under a retooled roster, the ’89 Orioles rebounded from the ’88 disaster to win 87 games and be in competition for the AL East until the final weekend of that season. The 2010 Orioles were 32-73 when Showalter took over August 3rd.  (They’d go 34-23 the rest of the way, and were a Wild Card in 2012.)

Those are two examples in organization history of quick turnarounds. Going back to the Machado trade idea.  The larger question is this. Do you think you can build a team that has a chance to contend within 2-3 years; or do you need to look further out (4-5 years for a return to possible contention)?

Harkins: There’s always a chance you get lucky and turn it around quickly, but I think the long-term approach is the one to take here. Do you want to sort of contend without a real shot at a championship, or do you want to build something more durable? I really believe they need to tear things down and look at it with a fresh set of eyes. I have no idea if Brady Anderson is the guy to do it, but if he is, Angelos should set the wheels in motion now.

Perrotto: The Orioles must look at the long term. They have some decent young players but no one that stands out as a potential superstar. They need to tear it down, a la the Cubs and Astros, to give themselves the best chance to win over the long haul. It’s a painful process but an absolute must. The Orioles have reached a point where Band Aids aren’t going to make a difference. They need to drill down to the core.” ed to tear things down and look at it with a fresh set of eyes. I have no idea if Brady Anderson is the guy to do it, but if he is, Angelos should set the wheels in motion now.

Warne: You have to look at the bigger picture. This can’t be done on the cheap/quick, because the Yankees and Red Sox aren’t going anywhere. Four to five years at the very least has to be the goal, and it might get worse before it gets better. Buckle up. I’ve been covering the Twins since 2011 — and it hasn’t been pretty. It’s very rare that a rebuild works like it did for the Cubs and/or Astros. There will be bumps.

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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