With the MLB season just a few days away, talk among the fanbase is heating up about real actual baseball topics. Instead of things like service time people are discussing lineups and rotations and the like. My goal is to go through and identify the most optimized an Orioles’ lineup could be based on the situation at hand that given day. Below you’ll find the ideal lineup laid out for four distinct situations, each of which will become clear as we work through them. I should also note that I’m going with the “everyday lineup” meaning that guys on the DL or missing a few games to start the year will be included.
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I should note that I’m going to use the optimized lineup structure as identified by Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andrew Dolphin. You can find a breakdown of how the book recommends you construct a lineup here at Beyond the Box Score. There’s also a pocket-sized version here for the analyst on the go.
When the O’s face a left-handed pitcher, their lineup is very strong as you can see above. I have Manny Machado leading off, he’s a high-contact guy that showed the ability to walk a bit more in the minors. That would up his OBP and make him an excellent selection for the leadoff spot. Pearce, the O’s best OBP guys follows in the most important lineup spot, and a powerful triumvirate of Jones, Snider, and Wieters follows.
The goal here is to have as many solid defenders on the right side of the field as possible. Pearce is a better defender at first base than Davis, so he gets the start with Davis sitting out. At the end of the day, Lough has hit lefties better than Davis (AVG & OBP) so we’ll take his excellent defense and decent average/OBP over Davis’ power here.
When the O’s trot a lefty out to the mound (a.k.a. games started by Chen, and only Chen), the lineup stays the same but the defense shifts a bit. Pearce continues to man first base, but the corner outfielders swap. We’re getting Lough’s glove out in left to help the defense, with Snider shifting back around to his normal position. With opposing managers packing their lineups with right-handed batters against Chen, it’s important to have a solid glove out in left to hold down the outfield with Jones.
The alternative here would be to move Pearce out to right field and have Davis take his spot at first base. That would get Davis’ bat back in the lineup while shifting maybe Hardy & Schoop down to the 8 and 9 spots respectively.
When facing right-handed pitchers things in the lineup move around a bit, but not dramatically so. Luckily for the Orioles both Manny Machado and Adam Jones have minor platoon splits, so both players still feature prominently in this iteration of the lineup. De Aza is now your leadoff man, he hits righties pretty well and serves as a nice place setter for the rest of the lineup. Chris Davis, the O’s best hitter against righties now hits second, the most important spot in the lineup. Right-handed slugggers like Pearce, Young, and Hardy all slide down a bit because of their platoon disadvantages. Once again we want to make sure that the defense is as optimized as possible, which is why Pearce is at first base. De Aza plays in right due to the left-handed batters that are sure to fill the opposition’s lineup card.
With a lefty on the mound for the O’s, Pearce moves back out to the outfield with Davis rejoining the infield at first base. The only reason to prefer Pearce in left is because last season his UZR/150 is roughly four times De Aza’s in left field, but it’s admittedly a small sample size. If you felt really compelled to flip the outfielders that’d be fine by me.
The Orioles excel at putting themselves in positions to succeed. Optimizing their lineups not only based on the handedness of the pitcher their facing but also by the handedness of their starters as well, is a terrific way for the club to get the most out of both their offense and defense. These lineups aren’t dramatically out of character for what you might expect from Buck. Sure, there’s some funny nuances like Manny hitting third against righties, but they aren’t that far off. Defensively they’re optimized as much as possible, though it’s probably unrealistic to expect the club to shift their outfield defense quite this much. I’d expect more straight platoons, with Pearce seeing little time in the infield.
Using lineups like these could add a handful of runs to the O’s season. With roughly 9 runs equating to a win in today’s lower run-scoring environment, a few wins could add up fast.
Jeff was the owner of the Orioles blog Warehouse Worthy, which focused on making advanced statistics a part of the conversation for the average fan. Outside of baseball, Jeff is a graduate of Loyola University where he received his Bachelor’s and Master’s in Business Administration. The Maryland native currently works for an Advertising Agency in downtown Baltimore. Previously a contributor to Beyond the Boxscore, he joined Baseball Prospectus in September 2014. You can reach him at jeff.long@baltimoresportsandlife.com.