The Orioles Rotation Is Lacking As 2016 Arrives

Beyond anything else, it was the failures of the rotation which took the Baltimore Orioles from 96 wins and a division championship in ’14, to a .500 record and watching others play in the post-season this past October.

The O’s starters posted a 4.53 era for the year, good for 14th (out of 15) in the American League.

This was with Wei-Yin Chen, giving the O’s 31 starts, 191.1 innings, at a 3.34 era.

Nobody expects Chen to return.

If you weren’t good enough with Chen, what’s the plan for improving without him?

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

I spent the last few months arguing for Scott Kazmir as a Chen replacement. When Kazmir was a FA prior to the ’14 season, I loved him on a 2 year deal. I was a little more apprehensive this time around, as he was now 2 years older, and we were also talking about a longer contract. Still, he seemed like the best bet to me to give the O’s good production at a somewhat reasonable cost. The best available alternative to replace Chen, and get the O’s back ‘even’.

Here is what I wrote about Kazmir on November 10th:

Kazmir is not that long removed from multiple years of arm trouble. He was also mediocre after being traded to Houston this past Summer. 

So, what do we like?

Kamir:
DOB: 1/24/84
6′, 185lbs
LHP

2013: 10-9, 158 ip, 162 hits, 19 hr’s, 47 bb’s, 162 k’s, .735 OPS against, 40.9 GB%, 3.36 xFIP,
2014: 15-9, 190.1ip, 171 hits, 16 hr’s, 50 bb’s, 164 k’s, .648 OPS against, 43.8 GB%, 3.59 xFIP
2015: 7-11, 183ip, 162 hits, 20 hr’s, 59 bb’s, 155 k’s, .678 OPS against, 42.9 GB%, 4.14 xFIP

How much will Kazmir cost?  MLBTR predicts he gets a 4 year, $52M contract. CBS Sports predicts he gets a 3 year, $39M contract.

By comparison, both MLBTR and CBS Sports has Chen at 5 years, $80M. To me, Kazmir represents a strong replacement for Chen. I think Kazmir has a higher ceiling, but also more flame out potential. I think Chen’s higher floor is being appreciated in the above salary projections.

Swooping in now, and wrapping up Kazmir in that 3 to 4 year, $39-$52M range seems like a smart decision to me. His fWAR in ’13 was 2.7 (worth $19.9M in production according to FanGraphs). In ’14 his fWAR was 3.2, worth $24.1M in production. In ’15, his fWAR was 2.4, worth $19M in production.

You aren’t paying for that prior performance, but I think he would at-least provide equal value to those contracts. It’s reasonable to be scared off by his prior arm trouble (and paying for his age 32, 33, 34, and possibly age 35 seasons); it’s also reasonable to think he might out-produce his contract.

Are there reasons for pause? His fastball velocity has dipped from 92.1 in ’13, to 91.5 in ’15. His K% in that time has dropped from 24.1% to 20.3%. I’m not overly bothered by either, because he has one of the best change-ups by velocity and movement in the game. Also because his Swinging Strike percentage was actually higher in ’15 vs. ’13.

Signing Kazmir would get the O’s rotation essentially back even to where they ended ’15, and the focus can return to improving.

With yesterday’s news that Kazmir has signed with the LA Dodgers for 3 years, $48M, with the ability for Kazmir to opt-out after the 2016 season – let’s review.

Kazmir got more money per year, than projected by MLBTR, or CBS Sports. The more important note here is the opt-out, allowing Kazmir to again hit the Free Agent market next year if he performs well in the bigger parks of the NL West.

For Baltimore to have obtained him, the O’s would likely have had to have been willing to go 4 years, $60M, and offer the opt-out. (The opt-out from the O’s would have been less attractive, as Kazmir figures to have better numbers in Chavez Ravine than he would have had at OPACY.)

I would have made that offer though.  It was about need, the options which exist, and the realities of where the O’s system is.

The frustrating aspect to me is that had the O’s obtained Kazmir, that again, it just would have gotten the O’s essentially back to where they were when ’15 ended – with a rotation that was not good enough.

The leadership of the Baltimore Orioles say they plan on having a good team in 2016. That the .500 season of 2015 should be the low-water mark of what is accomplished annually. That they plan on competing.

The O’s know their existing rotation of Tillman, Gausman, Jimenez, Gonzalez, and Wright is not good enough.

That’s why Orioles Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations Dan Duquette was quoted numerous times earlier in the off-season saying they wanted to add a #3 or better starter.

A number 3 starter is a replacement for Chen. Where is that coming from at this point?

Any plan for significant improvement by the O’s in 2016, is going to be reliant on Gausman reaching his potential, and Tillman getting back to what he was during 2012-14 (and against pretty much everyone other than Toronto in ’15). It will also help if Gonzalez bounces back with better health. Individually those goals are reasonable. Collectively, it’s a question mark.

I do like having Wright available as a spot starter, and do believe he can make an impact out of the bullpen. I don’t think he should be penciled into a Major League rotation, if the goal of that team is contending.

My answer all off-season has been add two starters. One to replace Chen, and another with at-least the potential to help. You need more than 5 starters you feel comfortable with to get through the season. I’m a fan of Gonzalez. I do think he’s better than his peripherals indicate when healthy. I don’t like a plan that calls on the O’s relying on him to give 30 starts, and hoping for 175 innings. I would have preferred to have been able to have him begin ’16 out of the bullpen, and join the rotation at some point when need (injury or non-performance) arose. As is though, the O’s need him to perform.

Do you feel good about that?

The best available / most viable option to potentially improve the rotation at this point is Mat Latos. There is upside there. That’s a signing that could turn out to be a big win. It’s also a guy that threw 102.1 innings in ’14, and 116.1 innings in ’15.

He’s a fine option for someone who could help, but he has to show he can stay on a mound and get back to his prior levels of performance. Based off of his last two years, I don’t see how you could add him, and be comfortable with relying on him. You’d be signing him, and hoping.

If the O’s want Latos though, what is the hold-up? Latos should be signing a 1 year deal somewhere. Giving him the opportunity to reestablish himself, and set himself up for a larger contract next off-season if he performs.

Maybe he questions signing with Baltimore for 1 season, if he wants to build himself up. Meaning similar to what we said about Kazmir above, maybe he would rather sign with a team with a larger stadium.

That said, how many teams are interested? The O’s have a need, and he at-least has some potential to help. If we’re just talking about a 1 year deal, why shouldn’t the O’s offer enough today to get a deal done, and give the staff another option?

The other starter that has been regularly linked to Baltimore has been Yovani Gallardo. Unlike Latos, Gallardo would come with more predictable performance. It’s just not performance which is overly impressive. It would also require the Orioles to give up a draft pick to sign him, as Gallardo turned down the qualifying offer provided by the Rangers. MLBTR projects Gallardo to sign a 4 year, $52M contract. Gallardo, who turns 30 in February, has 7 straight seasons with at-least 180+ innings. That reliability is what you would be signing him for. But a 4 year deal, where you give up a pick, for a guy hitting his 30s and with those depreciating K rates is not very inspiring.

However, since the Orioles have done nothing to improve their rotation since the ’15 season ended, there are limited options. It’s not hard to see the O’s talking themselves into this move.

To sign Kenta Maeda, you are probably looking at 6 years, $85M plus the $20M posting fee. Anyone see the O’s doing that?

Me either.

Someone will say with much as I’ve mentioned Chen above, what about him? I don’t know if he is going to get the $100M he has been seeking, but the whole point about the O’s talking to Kazmir was that they were looking for a Chen alternative at a lower cost. They didn’t obtain the cheaper alternative, so it’s hard to envision them resigning Chen (it’s also hard to justify that cost for him), even with Chen being the known commodity to the organization.

No matter what, it seems clear that there is going to be an awful lot riding on Gausman.
At-least the bullpen figures to be strong (as long as they don’t get completely worn out with overuse).

A new year begins tomorrow. As is, the rotation is not good enough for the O’s to contend. Pitchers & Catchers report for Spring Training on February 18th. How are the O’s going to improve?