This has been a very disappointing season in Birdland thus far. We saw the teams MVO leave for Seattle, we saw our best reliever leave for NY and we saw our fan favorite leave for Atlanta. On top of all of that, Dan Duquette’s name has been mentioned as a potential candidate to run Toronto and it appears that he could be interested in that job. For me to say that this has been a disappointing off-season would be putting it mildly.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

 

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Luckily for the Orioles and their fans, there is plenty of off-season left and there are still a number of guys out there that can help this club get back to the season they had in 2014. One guy out there that I feel the Orioles should be after is James Shields.

In addition to having an awesome last name, Shields is the established TOR starter the Orioles could really benefit from having. Now, is he an ace? No, I would say he is a notch below that. I would call him a weak #1 or a very strong #2 and he is better than anything we have now, at least until we see what Gausman and Bundy can turn into.

What jumps out to you about Shields is his durability and his consistency. Since 2007, he has thrown a minimum of 203 innings each season and in only one of those seasons, did he even throw under 215 innings. Over the last 3 years, he has throw 227.2, 228.2 and 227 innings. You can look at that as a negative as well. He has logged over 1900 innings in that arm and he is about to turn 33. With the talk being that he could be looking at a deal in the 4-5 year range at 18-20 million per season, those innings could actually be a red flag. For me, I don’t worry about it as much for a pitcher like Shields. He throws hard but he isn’t a “flame thrower” by any means. He is a “pitcher”. He has excellent command, uses all of his pitches and has sound mechanics.

Going back to the consistency aspect of his game. 2010 is the year that stands out to you as the anomaly. He had an ERA over 5 that year. His K and BB rates were very good that year but he gave up more homers than he usually does. His HR/FB ratio was higher than in any year (albeit not by much with the next highest in a full season) and he gave up more fly balls that year (compared to GB) than any of his other seasons. Taking out that year, he has been very consistent. The season before that, he had an ERA of just over 4 but usually; his ERA is in the 3.2-3.8 range (he did have a season under 3 as well).

The advanced metrics have been solid as well. The K rate is usually in the 7-8 range and the walk rates typically stay in the 2.5ish area or lower. His K/BB ratio is usually stellar, with his career mark at 3.6:1. His FIP, SIERA and xFIP usually end up around the same number, somewhere in the 3.60ish area. He isn’t an extreme GB pitcher by any means but his Gb/FB ratio for his career is 1.25:1. Again, this is a remarkably consistent guy. And btw, there is also a difference between being consistent and, for lack of a better term, very good consistent. Nick Markakis was, generally speaking, a consistent player. But he was still only a 2-2.5 WAR guy. Shields is usually a 3.5-4.5 fWAR player and his “worth” has usually be in the 15-20 million per season range, with his average in his 8 full seasons being 17.2 million per season.

The one area where he has a weakness is the HR ball. His career HR rate is just over 1, although the 2010 season (where he had a rate of 1.5) does drive that number up somewhat but overall, he usually ends up in the .8-1 range. That can obviously be an issue as he moves to OPACY but he isn’t a guy that hurts himself. He doesn’t walk guys and he allows less than a hit per IP, which is always good. The amount of homers he gives up isn’t some crazy high number either, especially when you consider the amount of innings he does throw but, that number is probably enough to keep him from being an elite pitcher.

When looking at signing a pitcher to a 5-year deal (it will probably take 5 years and it could take 6), especially one at his age, you do want to look for warning signs. As I already mentioned, he has a lot of mileage built up on that arm and shoulder but that has yet to affect him in terms of getting to the mound every fifth day. He has 8 straight seasons of 31 or more starts and in the last 7 seasons, he has started either 33 or 34 games. Again, I keep going back to it but consistency and durability are what makes him so valuable. With his age and all of those innings, you would expect to see a decline in his stats, right? Well, it’s going to be tough to find that. We have seen his K rate drop the last few years but its close and he is still within his career rates. His swinging str% was every bit as good in 2014 as it has been for most of his career, although it is a little lower than the last few years. The walk rate was better in 2014 than most years but again, he is still basically within range of his career numbers. What about his velocity? A guy at his age, with this number of innings has seen a velocity drop, right? Actually, it’s quite the opposite for Shields. According to pitchFX data, the average velocity he showed in 2014 was the HIGHEST of his career. The previous highest seasons? 2012 and 2013. He is the rare pitcher who has actually seen an increase in his velocity, as he has gotten older. Before 2012, his average velocity was in the 90-91MPH areas, so the fact that we have seen an increase is a good sign. His max velocity has basically been the same his entire career.

Its tough to find something negative to say about James Shields and that is a big reason why I feel the Orioles should make him a priority.  MLB is becoming a league where you just acquire as many good assets as you can and worry about the cost later and when you have a team that could win the WS, this is the type of move you make.

As we all know, this is very unlikely to happen. We haven’t seen the Orioles connected to Shields at all and they don’t like giving out 100 million dollar contracts and, up until the Ubaldo signing (which hurts here as well, at least in the eyes of Angelos, I am sure) the Orioles hadn’t given a deal to a pitcher longer than 3 years since Scott Erickson. Saying all of that, I still feel its something to look at.

As we all know, the Orioles are potentially losing some big money players after the 2015 season. Its very likely Chris Davis and Matt Wieters will be gone. They also figure to lose guys like Norris, Chen, Hunter, Pearce, Webb and De Aza. Its also doubtful Matusz will be tendered a deal next year (surprised they did it this year) unless he has a big bounce back season. That’s over 50 million in savings right there. As of now, the team only has a few guys under contract for 2016 and they total 44 million. The Orioles will have a lot of arb eligible guys but they aren’t going to be making crazy high money and with revenues growing larger and larger in MLB, especially due to RSNs, they can continue to afford more and more payroll. Of course, we still don’t know what will happen with MASN, so I am sure that is an excuse Angelos will make to not make a deal like this.

For 2015, I propose trading some players to offset the cost of adding Shields. With the payroll currently being in the 105 million range (give or take) and with the team needing to add OF and DH help, you could trade Norris and one of Chen or Miguel Gonzalez. You can deal De Aza, who is a little redundant to a guy like David Lough. You can look to dump Matusz on someone and save that 2.5-3 million salary. In other words, you can make all the changes you need, sign Shields, trade some of these guys for prospects to help your payroll down the line and still stay within a very manageable 120-130 million dollar payroll. Oh and you can do that while putting a World Series contending team out on the field.

Will the Orioles do these things? I doubt it. I don’t think Angelos would sign off on Shields and I don’t trust Duquette to pull all of this off but they should do these things IMO. Getting better now, while also getting better long term should be the goal and this is a way to accomplish it.

Rob Shields
Rob Shields

Rob has interviewed guests from outlets such as ESPN, Sports Illustrated, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, FOX Sports, Baseball Prospectus, Athlon, Sporting News, MLB Network, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Info Solutions, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post, Sports on Earth, Grantland, NFL Network, FanGraphs, Football Outsiders, ProFootballFocus, etc. etc. The Baltimore native lives in Perry Hall with his Wife Lindsay, and two young sons. He has appeared as a guest on 105.7 The Fan, Q1370, and WNST 1570. Co-Host of The Warehouse: https://anchor.fm/the-warehouse Co-Host of Sports Tonight: https://anchor.fm/sports-tonight

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