The bullpen in major league baseball is becoming more and more of a premium area teams are focusing on. After seeing the success of the Royals the last few years, culminating with a World Championship this season, teams are trying to replicate that. We saw Craig Kimbrel dealt to the division rival Boston Red Sox for a substantial package of young players. We are likely to see something similar with Aroldis Chapman, although not likely at the same level due to the service time difference. (Chapman is a FA after this coming season and Kimbrel has more years plus an option year under contract) We saw Andrew Miller get big money last year. Same with David Robertson. Orioles Free Agent, Darren ODay is seeking a 4-year deal and will likely get it. In other words, teams are paying big premiums for elite back of the BP arms and they are doing it because they saw the success of the Royals and want to duplicate their formula.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Pro sports are copy cat leagues. If one organization is successful doing something, teams want to do the same thing. As It turns out, the Orioles have been successful as of late and the bullpen has been a big reason for that. One of those reasons is Zach Britton. Britton has always been an elite groundball pitcher and while he missed a lot of bats prior to last year, he wasn’t getting the strikeouts. Well that changed in 2015. His strikeout rate went up 3.5 k/9 IP. The walk rate dropped below 2 and he kept the swinging str% way up (24.8%). And, he was even better with groundballs this year compared to last year (6.35GB rate last year…8.33 this year). He was also 11th in all of MLB in WPA. In short, Zach was elite this year and those types of guys do not grow on trees. Those are guys you strive to have in the back end of your bullpen.

I guess you are asking yourself, why on earth is this an article about trading Britton if the guy suggesting doing that is also saying you strive to have those guys on your team? Well, that’s a great question and there is a very long winded answer to that, which I will break into parts.

Trade Value:

Getting back to the Kimbrel deal. He fetched a package that had a top 25 prospect, a top 60 prospect, and 2 other solid MiLers with upside. Are these guy’s sure things? Of course not, but combine that talent with the money saved and it was a deal that SD just couldn’t pass up. Can Britton get as much? I think that’s a good question. We all know Kimbrel has been an elite guy for longer than Britton has. Kimbrel turns 28 in May. He already has 225 saves, has never had a K rate below 13 and has never had an ERA higher than 2.58. He has a career ERA of 1.63 and a career K rate of 14.55. However, his walk rate is usually over 3 and he is coming off of his worst season yet although he was obviously still very good. Zach Britton is coming off of a better year. He didn’t have Kimbrel’s K rate and Kimbrel did miss more bats but Britton walked fewer guys, pitched more innings (which he has done the last few years, although he wasn’t a closer for the full season in 2014) and gets way more ground balls. Britton is also under team control for another 3 seasons, which is the same as Kimbrel if the option gets picked up. Britton is a few months older. Zach will make around 7 million less the next 2 seasons and he will be in line for a similar salary to Kimbrel in year 3 if he continues to pitch at a high level. You can make the argument that Britton is the better buy right now and teams very well may pony up to get him because, as I talked about earlier, they want that KC formula.

There are a lot of potential teams out there with good young talent who are looking for back of the pen arms. Britton is a better buy than Chapman and if the Orioles put him out there with Chapman, they could get some of those teams to push for Britton instead of Chapman.

Impact on the Orioles:

We recently heard Dan Duquette talk about how he can spend on 1 major free agent hitter(Davis?) and a top of rotation starter. He also mentioned that the Orioles would like to add an OFer or 2 and a reliever or 2. As Oriole fans, we all have the believe it when we see it mentality. The Orioles already have 90-95M committed in payroll when you consider those under contract and the likely arbitration figures for the arbitration eligible guys. The amount of money Duquette is hinting at would put the Orioles at a 135-150 million payroll level and again, until I see it, I don’t believe it will happen. However, whatever level the Orioles take the payroll to, that is irrelevant for me about whether they should move Britton or not. Don’t get me wrong, if they go out and sign a few major guys and some other pieces and have the money to keep him to go for a title, I can see that. I can buy that argument and its not a decision I can say would “upset” me. I would still disagree with it though. If the Orioles can get a substantial package of young, cheap talent that they can control for no money for several years, they have to do that IMO.

Right now, this team has very few assets. The minor league system is very poor. It will rank near the bottom of the league this season. Yes, there are some intriguing guys down there and yes, they have had some bad luck with injuries but overall, its just not a good system right now. On top of that, your major league team has very few legit assets as well. They, of course, have Manny Machado. He is one of the best players in baseball and we all hope he is locked up to a long term extension very soon and even if they don’t sign him this offseason, he obviously isn’t being dealt. We also have an AS second baseman in the making in Jonathon Schoop. He has a ran combo of power and defense at second base and with his salary being so cheap and him being so young, he isn’t going anywhere either. You have Jones in CF and while you can make a very good argument for dealing him, that just isn’t happening. His contract is cheap, he is your team leader and is the fan favorite. He just isn’t being dealt. And you also have Gausman. Gausman looked to be a guy starting to turn the corner this past season and since you don’t quite know what you have in him yet, it would be tough to move him, especially since whoever you would add, would likely be a vet player about to or already making big money. Why would you trade Gausman for that player when you can just go out and sign one and lose nothing but maybe a draft pick?

There are a few other assets as well. Teams seem to like Givens, who looks like he will be the replacement for O’Day and while Givens shouldn’t be deemed as an untouchable or anything like that, he is obviously a guy that would be difficult to deal right now and he looks the part of an excellent back end arm. Its possible you could find a team that views Tillman as an asset. His cost is still down, he eats innings and while he is coming off a bad year, he has been good recently. But all in all, this team just lacks the assets it takes to go out and get the young talent that they need long term so that they have producing players making no money as guys like Machado, Jones, Gausman, and Schoop get more expensive.

This team also isn’t a team that spends substantial money on international amateur talent, they don’t sign and draft the kids that fall because of asking prices and they generally target under slot guys with a lot of their early draft picks. So, how are they going to obtain that young ML team that can help them soon if they don’t draft well and have so few assets on the major league roster? To me, the only answer is trading Zach Britton.

As much as it pains me to want to do that, this is a guy who will make somewhere between 6-7 million this year. While that salary is fine, it will balloon to 10 million or more in 2017 if 2016 is a good season. This organization can not afford to spend that kind of money on a closer, even if he is a dominant closer. The other thing this team can’t afford is to see Britton get hurt or have a down year. If that happens, not only would it hurt the major league team, it kills your best and most realistic trade chip. If that happens, this organization is in trouble unless they have a totally new thought process going forward of spending more money on the ML payroll and on amateur talent and as long as Angelos is the owner, I don’t see why we should think that will happen.

Also, will his value ever be higher? While I would agree with those who say it can be just as high (or higher) in July, that comes with the caveat that he has to be performing at a high level and is healthy and while I think both of those are more likely to be the case than not, its also more likely the value will never be higher than it is this off-season, especially with teams looking to duplicate the KC formula.

Can the bullpen be good without him and O’Day?

Britton and O’Day formed arguably the best bullpen duo in major league baseball this year. Losing 2 guys of that quality is going to hurt. There isn’t any way around that. The question is, can you offset that hurt by using the money saved on Britton and the players you get in a way where you improve other areas, while also changing the bullpen and bringing in new arms?

I think the answer to all of those is yes. Will they be elite at the back end? Probably not. Its not impossible especially if Givens can be as good as he was in 2015 in a full season worth of baseball in 2016. Also, we have a young power arm in Michael Wright. The Orioles used him as a starter last year but he doesn’t have the consistency to be a ML starter but he could be a dominant bullpen arm. He has that ceiling. The Orioles also have some young exciting arms like Tanner Scott, who throws hard from the left side and has closer upside. But getting beyond those guys, there are some intriguing free agents this year that I feel are worth looking at.

One guy I would look at is Tony Sipp. Many of the pundits have him getting somewhere around 2/10. I think there’s a good chance someone gives him the third year but compared to O’Day and some of the recent big reliever deals, he could be a bargain at even 3/15. While he is a little older than you would like (32) he is a power arm with an improving walk and HR rate. Unlike O’Day, he hasn’t been that consistent arm that always gives you elite performance but he has been very good to elite in certain years, including the last 2. Outside of 2013, lefties have struggled vs him in a big way. He may not be a closer but a late inning reliever is something he has proven to be and he does have the stuff to be a closer.

A buy low guy I like is Neftali Feliz. I have mentioned him before. His stuff was seemingly getting back last year and while he needs to be better than he was, some of his peripherals tell you he wasn’t as bad as the 6.38 ERA would lead you to believe and he will also be another season removed from surgery and this is when you would expect him to start to get back to normal, if he ever does that.

But even getting past those couple of names, there are several guys out there that have had good seasons that you can bring in and build a good bullpen with. You also may be able to get a failed starter to go to the bullpen or sign an arm like Brandon Morrow and turn him into a reliever. If you add enough starting pitching, you could move Gonzalez to the pen, where I have always felt he could thrive. What I do know is that I feel we have a good foundation with Givens, Brach, Wright and others to start to build your new bullpen. We also have a manager who knows how to manage a bullpen and that helps as well.

Would losing Britton hurt? Absolutely it would. Can they recover from it? Can they be a better overall team without him? Yes, they can.

I have made the argument that I can’t see keeping him on the team for 2016. I just feel the value is too high and he is too important of a piece to not get the young talent you need for.

What do you think? Should the Orioles keep Britton? Do they need to trade him (assuming the package is there, which should go without saying but I will say it anyway)?

Rob Shields
Rob Shields

Rob has interviewed guests from outlets such as ESPN, Sports Illustrated, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, FOX Sports, Baseball Prospectus, Athlon, Sporting News, MLB Network, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Info Solutions, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post, Sports on Earth, Grantland, NFL Network, FanGraphs, Football Outsiders, ProFootballFocus, etc. etc. The Baltimore native lives in Perry Hall with his Wife Lindsay, and two young sons. He has appeared as a guest on 105.7 The Fan, Q1370, and WNST 1570. Co-Host of The Warehouse: https://anchor.fm/the-warehouse Co-Host of Sports Tonight: https://anchor.fm/sports-tonight

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