Where the O’s are, and where they are going

With exactly two weeks before New Year’s Eve, let’s review where things presently stand for the Baltimore Orioles and see if we can plot out a likely map for where they are going in 2015.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Everyone has different boiling points. Yesterday when Mike Morse signed a 2 year, $16M deal with the Miami Marlins – I reached mine. Looking at the available market and knowing the O’s needs; I thought Morse made sense to be Baltimore’s DH. Solid production at a very reasonable cost in both years and dollars.

After simmering down, my thoughts went back to the off-season last year. In October 2013, I had hoped to see the O’s make Tanaka, and Abreu priorities. I knew either individually (let alone both) was likely a pipe dream, but that was what I was hoping for. In-time, I set my sights lower and wondered if the O’s could target multiple starters like Kazmir, and Colon. My thinking at the time was that Kazmir’s injury history, and Colon’s age would make both obtainable on short-term deals. Minimal overall risk to the O’s, with the chance of either providing some upside (and depth) to the O’s rotation.

The reason I had set my sights on Kazmir, and Colon over someone like Jimenez – is that I did not anticipate the O’s being willing to give up the 17th overall pick (in addition to the necessary contract) for the right-hander.

I was wrong, and like most of Baltimore was surprised when the deal was announced February 18th. With that deal completed, it made it easier to sign Nelson Cruz (giving up the 2nd round pick) a week later.

To me, there are several lessons to be taken from last-year. 

First, the O’s fancied themselves as potential contenders in the AL East, and late into the off-season were still looking for moves to improve the roster. Coming off a Division Championship – and with the core of the roster returning – it is unlikely that that mindset has changed.

Second, it might feel like the O’s are playing Russian Roulette with the available FA market, but the O’s mindset is likely that they’ve identified multiple options to address holes, and are comfortable in waiting out the market to find their right match.

The results of the 2014 season – 96 wins, a 3rd consecutive winning season, an AL East Crown – give credence to the idea that the O’s have earned the benefit of the doubt for their decision making. My feeling is that is partially accurate, but it’s also fair to critique and question the process along the way.

Jimenez had a poor year, but in the middle of last February he was deemed a necessary addition. Was his signing the sole result of the O’s correctly reading the market; realizing that the draft compensation tied to him would eliminate other suitors – or was it also a bit of fortuitous luck that he remained as an available option? Further to that, would they have signed 2014’s Most Valuable Oriole (Cruz) if they had not already given up their 1st round pick for Jimenez?

You can go round-and-round with that line of thinking. My takeaway here is that I’ll continue to critique what I think are missed opportunities for the Birds, while also remembering that there is plenty of time for the O’s roster to be augmented prior to the beginning of the 2015 season.

Let’s review where the O’s stand roster wise as is.

Catcher:
Matt Wieters – His 2014 season ended prematurely due to Tommy John surgery. The O’s remain cautiously optimistic about his ability to be ready for Opening Day. A Free Agent after 2015, I do not believe the O’s will be (or should be)  looking to extend him, but that is TBD. In 2015 the hope will be that the offensive improvements he was showing in the early parts of ’14 can be sustained over a full season.

1st:
Chris Davis – He was solid in ’12, MVP-esque in ’13, and a disappointment in ’14. As I’ve stated previously, I’m anticipating production somewhere between his ’12, and ’13 numbers. Like Wieters, he is a pending Free Agent. While I fully expect to see Davis in an O’s uniform this year, it’s plausible that the O’s could look to trade him.

2nd:
Jonathan Schoop – Playing a full Major League season for the first time, Schoop was a disaster as he tired out in September. The year as a whole was a positive in my opinion. He showed to be a better 2nd baseman than advertised (good around the bag, strong arm, adequate range), and he gained the experience of playing everyday. The O’s will obviously be hoping he can make a jump in Year 2. The biggest thing I’ll be looking for is for Schoop to close the gap between his walks (13) and k’s (122). He has obvious pop, and looked good when able to hunt fastballs. He is going to have to improve vs. secondary offerings. If he can improve his OPS up to around .700, that would be a nice lift for the offense.

SS:
JJ Hardy – Signed to that 3 year extension, Hardy will be going into his 5th year in a Baltimore uniform. By UZR/150, 2014 was his best year with the glove as an Oriole. On the flip-side his ISO (.104) was the lowest of his career. The doubles were still there, the homers fell off. There was some talk that his approach changed to deal with injuries he was playing through. If healthier in ’15, do we see him find the seats more often?

3rd:
Manny Machado – He’s doing baseball related activities now, and is expected to be ready to go in Spring Training. Turning just 23 in July, I think he’s the O’s most talented overall player. He has to prove it, but I believe he will have a significant breakout year offensively. Even if that doesn’t happen, as long as he can be on the field for the 156 games he played in ’13 vs. the 82 games he played in ’14 – that is a huge difference.

LF:
Steve Pearce – Pearce turns 32 in April. It didn’t shock me that Pearce had a very productive season vs. LHP (1.109 OPS in 98 ab’s) this past year. What did surprise me was how well he hit RHP’s (.856 OPS in 240 ab’s). I like Pearce, and have no problem with him getting regular ab’s. Ideally though, I’d prefer him to be someone that rotated between LF, DH, and 1st. I was impressed with his defense in both LF and 1st last year. He was more than adequate in both spots, and that was a credit to him working to improve.

CF:
Adam Jones – For the first time in years, the advanced metrics liked his defense in CF. Was that due to a change in positioning (playing deeper more consistently), or was it an aberration? Over the last 5 years, Jones has batted somewhere between .281 and .287. (.280 for his career.) He’s slugged between .442 and .505 in each of those 5 years (.461 for his career.) During that time-frame, his on-base % has been between .311 and .334 (.320 for his career.) You know what you are going to get from Jones offensively. There are no surprises at this point. In the O’s last game of the 2014 season (Game 4 of the ALCS vs. Kansas City) Jones took 2 walks. To me, that illustrated that Jones could make a conscious decision to be more patient at the plate and work to get on-base at a higher rate. Part of the reason Jones is so aggressive, is that he is hunting fastballs early in counts. It’s worked for him, and he struggles with pitch-recognition when he gets behind. With 4,200 MLB ab’s under his belt, it’s time to appreciate him for what he is, not what one would hope he could be. He’s part of the solution, even if his game has flaws.

RF:
Alejandro De Aza – He has some split issues (.672 OPS vs. LHP the last 3 years, including .401 in 87 ab’s during 2014) but he’s the best existing option to replace Markakis without further additions.

DH:
Christian Walker – The to-be 24 year old had a combined .846 OPS in 532 ab’s at Bowie, and Norfolk during ’14. I don’t expect him to be in the Majors to begin ’15 (and I question his overall ceiling), but if you are looking at the roster as of today – he’s probably the best option. If you prefer the idea of Alvarez in RF, De Aza in LF, and Pearce at DH – that’s fine. Hopefully neither Walker or Alvarez in the everyday lineup is a realistic possibility.

Bench:
Joseph, Flaherty, Lough, Paredes

Rotation:
Tillman, Gausman, Chen, Norris, Gonzalez

Bullpen:
Britton, O’Day, Hunter, McFarland, Matusz or Wright, Webb, Jimenez

It would not be totally shocking to see the above roster overachieve and contend, but it would be a bit of a surprise. The AL East will be improved vs. what we saw from the O’s divisional opponents in ’14, and the roster depth is somewhat limited. I think I see the above roster at around 85 wins.

I want to see two more bats added. I continue to like the idea of either Rasmus, or Aoki for RF. With either one of those two added, De Aza moves to LF, and Pearce becomes your DH.

The O’s continue to kick the tires on bringing back Young, and have also been mentioned in connection with Jonny Gomes. I’d be comfortable with either signed, and utilized as Young was in ’14.

As written above, I’m comfortable with Schoop at 2nd and looking for improvement from him. If the O’s wanted to include Schoop as part of a package for something else, they could target Cuban 2nd baseman Jose Fernandez – who is projected as adequate defensively, and a top of the order type of bat.  However, Fernandez has to get out of Cuba first, and current reports place him still on the Island.

Rickie Weeks is a pretty horrible defensive 2nd baseman, so I would not want him as a replacement for Schoop. However, Weeks on the bench, or as a platoon option at DH has some appeal.

My BSL Colleagues Rob Shields and Jeff Long have written about James Shields, and Max Scherzer the last few days. By their own admissions, the signings of either are unlikely at best.

The unlikely move which seems more plausible to me, is the O’s circling back to focusing on a trade for Atlanta’s Justin Upton. There were inaccurate reports locally that the O’s had never discussed a trade for Upton with the Braves. That is not true according to what I’ve learned. It was my understanding though that those conversations did not advance. J.Upton has just one year remaining on his contract, so that limits how much could be sent to Atlanta. Gausman is a total non-starter. I think Bundy should be as well. I can’t see giving up Bundy’s ceiling and years of cheap team-control for potentially a 1 year rental. It’s possibly I could be talked into a deal circling around Harvey.  Right now, it seems like the leader for Upton is San Diego. If the O’s offered a package of Sisco, Walker, and Davies – would the Padres trump that offer?

As we’ve discussed previously, if the O’s want to give up little talent for J. Upton, they can do so by agreeing to take on a sizable portion of BJ Upton’s contract.  BJ is owed $46.35M over the next 3 years. If the O’s took on 1/2 of that, and utilized BJ as they would use Young, Gomes, or Weeks – does that make sense? You add a huge talent in Justin to the middle of the order, and you give up less player capital to obtain him.  BJ has struggled tremendously the last two years, but he has hit lefties previously.  I don’t expect the O’s to end up with the Upton Brothers, but it is a move which is still available to them.

Baltimore could sign Rasmus for RF, have J. Upton in LF, Pearce at DH, and De Aza on their bench. The depth of that roster is much improved, and that team looks more like a 90 game winner.

That would be the path I would be looking for at this time. It will be interesting to see what O’s choose to do. Recent history indicates that moves not presently seen, may yet be presented for Baltimore.