The MLB Winter Meetings are currently underway in Dallas. The only time I attended the Winter Meetings (2000) the event was also in Dallas. I was in the lobby when Alex Rodriguez signed his massive 10 year $252M contract with the Rangers and watched all of baseball lose their collective minds.
Walking around the lobby as a 21 year old was a bit intimidating. Faces and names you recognized, and respected were all around you. I was cognizant of the fact that as these people were working, they did not have a lot of available time to be giving away free advice. I finally worked up the nerve to go and speak to familiar Charm City faces in Ken Rosenthal (who I believe was already National at time), and Peter Schmuck. Both Rosenthal and Schmuck were very gracious with the limited time they had. They actually both introduced me to a few others, and helped calm my nerves. I’ve appreciated the kindness both showed for a long time.
That trip to Dallas was an interesting time for me. 2011 in Dallas is an interesting time for the Baltimore Orioles. Here are some short takes on a number of topics:
Topic 1) Hiring of Fred Ferreira as the Intl. Scouting Director
MASN’s Steve Melewski had a great pice on the hiring of Fred Ferreira (http://www.masnsports.com/steve_melewski/2011/12/os-add-international-scouts-;-venezuelan-academy-could-be-coming.html) as the International Scouting Director. There are going to be some O’s fans upset that the organization is going to have stagnant spending this coming season ($85M or so, middle of the pack), but there should be applause for Duquette’s hiring of Ferreira, and Ferreira’s subsequent hiring of of scouts in the DR, Venezuela, Curacao, Guatemala, Holland, and Costa Rica. Ferreira is quoted as saying there is a decent chance the O’s will look to add an Academy in Venezuela. This is great news, and the best long-term chance for the O’s to really improve as a franchise.
Topic 2) Fielder
Duquette has put cold water on the O’s chances of even pursuing Fielder repeatedly until today. Today Duquette left the door open slightly in comments to MASN’s Kubatko. I interpret those comments as the O’s being willing to see just how limited the market is for Fielder, and willing to submit an offer if the market stays artifically low. It is hard to imagine the O’s offering more than 6yrs $140M, and I have to think someone will exceed that. It is more likely that the O’s decline to make an offer at all I think.
Topic 3) Trade interest in Johnson?
MLB.com’s Britt Ghiroli reported this morning that there is strong interest in Jim Johnson. If Johnson is an Oriole next year, I’d like him to be the Closer. I have zero interest in him joining the rotation, and I’d be willing to trade him here at the Winter Meetings with the goal of getting back a player or two ready to help the Major League roster, who is under long-term team control.
Topic 4) Reynolds and Davis
I prefer Reynolds at 3rd, and Davis at 1st – but it appears the organization prefers the opposite. Obviously you did not need advanced defensive metrics to know Reynolds had an abysmal year at 3rd last year with far to many errors made. I saw a guy capable of making his share of great plays, who butchered the routine too often. I think he has decent range, especially to his left, and a capable arm. I also think that if you look at his UZR/150 numbers over ’09, and ’10; there is reason to believe he can play the position effectively. While his UZR/150 numbers at 1st last year were better vs. what he did at 3rd; it was not like he was Keith Hernandez out there. He had a -17.4 UZR/150, which is brutal in its own right (and below his ’09, and ’10 numbers at 3rd). I thought Davis looked stiff at 3rd, and looked better at 1st. Without any additions, I have no problem giving Davis regular ab’s. I think even if you added someone at 1st, you could find regular ab’s for Davis at 1st, 3rd, DH, and LF.
Topic 5) Cespedes
I’d love to see the O’s make an aggressive run at Cespedes. I’ve been told that there are teams/cities Cespedes would prefer to go over Baltimore, that are expected to bid on the Cuban OF. I’d still make a solid offer and make him turn it down. I’d also make it known that he would start in LF from Day 1 (while some other teams believe he will need time in the Minors).
Topic 6) Will Markakis be traded?
I went into the off-season believing that there was a good chance that Adam Jones would be extended or traded prior to Opening Day. After the hiring of Duquette, and reading his comments in multiple interviews; it seems apparent that Duquette believes the O’s have a group of players up the middle in Wieters, Hardy, and Jones to build around. Markakis is always an after-thought in his comments. The O’s have stated several times that they intend to obtain pitching. They only have so many commodities which can bring back arms. It would not shock me if Markakis is moved, but I would be surprised. I guess I have no problem with Markakis being shopped, but I would prefer him to remain with the O’s.
Topic 7) Will Guthrie be traded?
Ghiroli is also reporting that Guthrie is being talked about by a number of teams, and drawing interest. If I would be surprised that Markakis is traded, I would be shocked if Guthrie is traded before the trading deadline next year. While it would be difficult to replace Guthrie’s innings in the rotation, a friend made the valid point that the O’s can win 70 games with or without him. That said, I believe Showalter has plenty of influence with the organization, and I have my doubts that Showalter is willing to part with Guthrie and be left with a current rotation of Britton, Arrieta, Matusz, Hunter, Bergesen/ Tillman. Even with Guthrie they want to obtain another veteran option. Just can’t imagine them moving Guthrie now.
Topic 8) Teagarden obtained.
The O’s obtained their backup Catcher, with the addition of Taylor Teagarden. I was a bit surprised that it cost Baltimore Randy Henry to get Teagarden, but all in all I’m fine with this. These comments (http://www.camdencrazies.com/2011-articles/december/orioles-acquire-catcher-taylor-teagarden-from-rangers.html) from Daniel Moroz with Camden Crazies pretty much matches my sentiments.
EDIT: Day 2 Thoughts
1) Dan Connolly with The Sun tweeted last night that multiple sources have confirmed the O’s have interest in Chicago’s Floyd, and Quentin. We have been talking about a trade for these two for exactly a year (ESPN’s Jayson Stark reported 12/9/10 that the White Sox were listening to offers for the pair, and we wrote about the possibility then.) I’d like to have them both…. like Connolly said, there might not be a match though.
2) Joel Sherman tweeted that the Astros are again shopping Wandy Rodriguez. We talked about him at the trading deadline. The soon to be 33 year old LHP is 73-75 for his career (11-11 in ’11) and has pitched 191+ ip each of the past 3 years. In ’11, he allowed 182 hits, 25 hr’s, 69 bb’s, with 166 k’s. He held hitters to a .739 OPS against (.743 for his career) and had a G/F ratio of 0.89. He relies …on the curve ball which he throws over 37% of the time. The average velocity of his 4 seam fastball was 89.2 mph. Rodriguez is owed $10M in ’12, $13M in ’13, and there is a $13M option for ’14 which vests if he is traded (with a $2.5M buyout). If Rodriguez is available, there are probably a number of packages which could work. Houston’s system is viewed as weak, and with the money owed to him, the Astros are only going to get back so much. Owing Rodriguez $36M over 3 years is not overly appealing to me, but I could make an argument for his acquisition if it only cost you a couple of players out of the Hoes//Townsend/Avery/ & Mahoney grouping.
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