O’s Optimism should not be tempered

This blog is is a counter to Peter Schmuck’s 2/14 article for The Baltimore Sun, titled ‘Optimism for Orioles should be tempered.’

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/bal-sp.schmuck14feb14002024,0,4043585.column

While Mr. Schmuck acknowledges the O’s are improved, I disagree with the notion that optimism should be tempered.

From 1998 through 2009, the Baltimore Orioles have had a losing-season every year. In 2009, the O’s won just 64 games.

I say, that streak is going to end in 2010. I have the O’s finishing 2010 at 82-80, and believe it would not be totally out of the question, for the O’s to play a bit over their heads and push towards 86-88 wins.

Markakis, Jones, Wieters, Reimold, and Pie should all be improved.
Roberts, and Scott should be about the same.
Not having 56 games started by Eaton, Hill, Hendrickson, and Berken will be a major change for the better.
The bullpen will be improved… (though I wish Uehara, Hernandez, and Berken would each make the bullpen)

It is a strong everyday lineup, with useful bench players in Wigginton and Pie, a rotation with promise, and a bullpen capable of helping.

To push towards 86-88 wins, the majority of the following things would have to occur. It would be unrealistic to expect each to happen, but on their own, each are possible enough.

1) 2 of 3 out of Markakis, Jones, and Wieters post an OPS at .900 or above. All 3 are above .850.

2) My minimum 2010 expectations for the combined numbers of Matusz, and Tillman are 340 innings at a 4.75 era. I do not think is outside the realm of possibility that Matusz steps-up and has a season similar to Mussina’s first-full year in 1992.

In ’91, a 22 year-old Mussina made his first 12 Major League starts for the Birds. In ’92, he went 18-5 with a 2.54 era. Mussina pitched 241 innings, allowing 212 hits, with 48 walks, and 130 k’s.

In ’09, a 22 year-old Matusz made his first 8 Major League starts for the O’s. In ’10, he went…. ?

What a ridiculous first-full season for Mussina. I guess you have to look at it in context of league averages by season, but still.

I do not think Matusz is capable of 241 innings this coming year, nor likely an era below 3.50. I do think he is capable of 15-18 wins, and 200 innings though.

3) Luke Scott, and Garrett Atkins combine for 45 homers, and 150 rbi batting 7th and 8th in the everyday lineup.

4) Bergesen matches his 2009 production, and Guthrie is closer to his 2008 self.

5) With an improved rotation, and Uehara, Berken, and Hernandez each able to provide extended innings; the bullpen goes from a weakness to a major plus. Mickolio (called up during the season) and Johnson provide an excellent bridge to Gonzalez who settles in as a dominating closer.

I see a lot of O’s fans that continue to be worried about what NY and Boston did this Winter. To me, that makes little sense.

At this point, the Yankees and Red Sox are more about sustainability vs. improving. By that I mean New York won 103 games, and the World Series in 2009. They have added Granderson, and Vasquez. (While losing Damon, Matsui, Kennedy, and Cabrera) Even if you believe that the Yankees are ‘better’, they are not going to improve on their 2009 results.

The revenue streams of the Red Sox, and Yankees; combined with their willingness to spend, and capable management, is what has allowed those organizations to have the success they have had the last 10-15 years. That is not going to change. These teams are going to continue to have more overall resources than the O’s. (and everyone else for that matter). The salary they spend, will not guarantee post-season success, but will guarantee they have the roster depth necessary to continue to win a minimum of 90 games annually.

If the O’s improve, they will cut into the overall wins of those teams. By 2011, there are going to be four very capable teams in the AL East, that will just beat each other-up. By that point, no one is going to run away and hide.

What the 2010 season will show, is that optimism for the O’s becoming a perennial contender is with reason, and not something to be tempered.