O’s Quick Hits: Matusz, Guthrie, Davis, Reimold, Jones

The signings of Bundy, Esposito, and Delmonico made for a big day yesterday for the Baltimore Orioles. Let’s discuss some topics of note for today.

Topic 1) Matusz returns

As important as it was for the O’s to get Bundy signed, it is of equal importance that Brian Matusz is an arm the O’s can depend on going forward. He finished 2010 looking as good as he ever had in an O’s uniform over his last 10 starts. He dealt with an oblique injury, tinkering from Mark Connor, and admittedly was not as prepared as he should have been this Spring. After being promoted back to Baltimore June 1st, Matusz would spend the month getting absolutely pummeled over 6 starts. He went back to the Minors, and upon working with Mike Griffin appears to have refound his form. Over his last 3 starts for Norolk, Matusz pitched 23 ip, allowing 16 hits, 2 hr, 4 er, 5 bb’s, with 15 k’s. Matusz is typically a confident guy (though his confidence was tested in June), but I want to see him have immediate ML success tonight and feel good about himself. Pitching in the big ballpark in Oakland, against that punch-less A’s team can only help.

The O’s signed Hardy to an extension, instead of moving him for a prospect haul. They traded Uehara for Davis, and Gregg instead of getting the younger prospects back that San Diego did for Adams. Clearly the Baltimore Front Office is committed to try and build around what is already here. There is no scenario where rapid improvement will be possible for the O’s, without Matusz being the front of the rotation guy he has been expected to be.

Topic 2) Guthrie & the ‘magical’ quest for 20

I’ve made no secret that I’ve always been a personal fan of Guthrie. I really respect him as a professional, and you often see the talent that made him a 1st round pick out of Stanford. That is not to say that I overvalue his contributions on the field. I’ve made the point numerous times that if Guthrie was on a contender, he would be a 3rd or a 4th starter. With the problems the O’s have had with their rotation, he has been miscast as the de facto ‘Ace’. I flippantly said above that Guthrie is on a magical quest for 20. Unfortunately this is not a march to 20 wins, but an ever closer race to 20 losses. Wins and losses are a horrible way to evaluate pitchers, but there is no getting around the fact that a 5-16 record just looks ugly. If you look at his overall numbers (4.55 era, 164 ip, 172 hits, 49 walks, 95 k’s, .779 OPS against, 0.67 G/F) they are comparable with what he has done the rest of his O’s career; and with most 3rd / 4th starters in the AL. While he typically keeps the O’s in games, (15 starts of at-least 6ip, and 4 er or less, 11 starts of at-least 7 ip, and 4 er or less) Guthrie often does just enough wrong to lose. Part of that is the HR’s he allows, but a larger part is the relatively low strike-out rate and not being able to finish off hitters.

I know Guthrie will continue to be a professional and take the ball every 5th day. I know logically he still gives the O’s their best chance to win games (and avoid overly taxing an already tired bullpen). Still, part of me thinks the O’s should limit his starts down the stretch here and save him the embarrassment of a 20 loss season.

Topic 3) Not seeing enough of Chris Davis

Since acquiring Chris Davis, the 25 year old has played in 10 games for the O’s and missed 5 with a sore shoulder. The O’s have 43 games left in this 2011 season. Even if he plays in each of them (which seems doubtful), I will be surprised if the O’s go into the off-season writing Davis’ name in pen as their prospective 2012 1st baseman. I expect that Scott will not be offered arbitration, and that Davis will contribute to the ’12 O’s at 1st, DH, and LF next year. His 40 ab’s with the O’s is nothing, but 1 bb vs. 14 k’s is not going to cut it.

In ’08, Davis had 42 XBH’s in 295 ab’s with the Rangers, posting a .880 OPS. In 391 ab’s in ’09, Davis had 38 XBH’s (including 21 homers) as his OPS dropped to .726. (Slugging % fell from .549 to .442).

Last year, Davis had just 120 ab’s with the Rangers, and has had only 72 ab’s with Texas here in 2011. However, Davis was absolutely on fire this year at AAA Round Rock. (193 ab’s, 1.229 OPS, 39 xbh’s, 24 homers, .368 baa) The only negative blemish on his time there is his 11 bb’s vs. his 58 k’s.

In his Major League career, Davis has a career .679 OPS against LHP, and a .774 OPS against RHP. He can help a Major League roster, he just can not be handed a starting position, and be counted on to perform.

Topic 4) Reimold, what exactly do you have?

Similar to Guthrie, Reimold is a personal favorite. He plays the game correctly. He runs out every ball, I love his combination of power and plate discipline. He has good athleticism.  He’s had 625 Major League at-bats, and has had 30 doubles, 25 homers, 76 bb’s, 137 k’s, with a .763 OPS in that time frame. We know that as promising as his ’09 season was, his ’10 season was a wash. I’ve written previously that even though he doesn’t have good instincts in LF, that the defensive metrics showing him to be an absolute butcher were not telling the full-story. He was playing with a torn Achilles in ’09, and unable to cut after the surgery in ’10. In ’11, his UZR/150 is positive. Showalter was quoted the other day saying he thinks Reimold is playing as well defensively as Pie in LF. As much talk as Reynold’s Club Level HR rightfully received, Reimold’s blast in Toronto was just as impressive. Nolan really is a guy with capable power to all fields.

Still, no matter how much I like the positives about Reimold’s game – the opposing argument is still there. Reimold turns 28 in October, and as mentioned above, has had just 625 Major League ab’s. In 51 games, and 151 ab’s this year, his OBP is just .306. What the O’s have remains a mystery. If the O’s want to definitively improve in ’12, they need to limit how many mysteries they enter the season with. Like Davis, even if he produces some numbers to end the year, it will be hard for the O’s to hand him LF. I think Reimold will be part of the ’12 roster. I think there is a chance LF is his when the O’s begin next year. I think the odds are good the O’s will be looking for a more proven commodity this off-season.

Topic 5) Contract extension for Jones?

Adam Jones turned 26 on August 1st. He is scheduled to be arbitration eligible in 2012, and 2013 before becoming a Free Agent for the 2014 season. The O’s CF has a career .332 wOBA (.358 wOBA this year). Despite a Gold Glove, and a reputation for his defense (

Assuming Jones is not traded, he will be with the O’s and arbitration eligible in 2012, and 2013 before becoming a Free Agent for the 2014 season. The O’s CF turns 26 in August, and has a career .328 wOBA (.344 wOBA this year). There are extreme differences in opinion about his defense.

On one hand you have the AL Managers who were surveyed by Baseball America, and ranked Jones as the 2nd best defensive OF in the league. (http://www.masnsports.com/steve_melewski/2011/08/wieters-and-jones-make-baseball-americas-best-tools-list.html) On the other hand, you have all of the advanced defensive metrics which pointed to him being a sub-par CF over these past 3 years.

This argument was well represented by Sports Illustrated’s Joe Posnanski (http://joeposnanski.si.com/2011/07/12/ducks-on-the-pond/) who recently wrote the following:

“This has nothing to do with runners on base, but I think that the next big defensive cat fight will be over Adam Jones. As you probably know, the defensive cat fight the last few years has been over Derek Jeter — with some people whipping up numbers that show him to be a dreadful shortstop and others throwing Gold Gloves at him the way women used to throw underwear at Tom Jones. And there was a mini-fight over Torii Hunter, who was beloved by the eye but not so much by the stats.

Now we have Jones. I spent the other day at the MLB Fan Cave, where two guys are watching every single baseball game all year. They seem like good guys. And they LOVE Adam Jones. I mean that with all capital letters. They believe him to be the “best-looking young center fielder since Ken Griffey Jr.” and “probably the best defensive center fielder in the American League.” And, as mentioned, they watch every game.

The stats tell a very different story. Jones’ defensive WAR this year is -2.1 (Baseball Reference). His Ultimate Zone Rating is minus-10.1 (Fangraphs … and it has been negative for three years). His Dewan Plus/Minus says that this year he has made 20 fewer plays — TWENTY — than the average center fielder, which is 35th in baseball, an astonishing feat considering that there are only 30 teams. Obviously, defensive stats are not black and white, and there’s a small sample size going with his defensive WAR. Still, the numbers point in the direction of “lousy.” And, in this case, there are a couple of scouts I have talked with who agree (though they say it’s about his “instincts”).

I don’t want to take sides in the matter … it’s bad enough being an Orioles fan these days without having one of your few positive vibes shattered by bloodless and vaguely incomprehensible stats. But the conflict is worth watching. Interesting side note: In the very game that I watched at the Fan Cave, Jones made one running catch and had another ball go over his head. In the narrative of the Adam Jones’ lover, the first was a great play and the second was an impossible catch anyway. But it’s not out of the question that in reality the first play was made harder than necessary by a bad route and that Jones should have caught the second ball. Defensive quality is not easy to lasso.”

My opinion is that when you have two vastly different points of view, the truth is usually somewhere in the middle. Despite his Gold Glove, I thought his play in CF the past two years was mediocre at best. I also think the defensive metrics have overstated his deficiencies. I don’t think Jones in CF is an issue for the O’s. Frankly, they have too many other things to be worrying about. I feel his defense has improved this year, and I give credit to him (and the Coaching Staff) for improving his positioning.

The questions I’ve posed to a number of writers this year, is should the O’s pursue an extension with Jones this off-season? If so, and the O’s attempt to buy out the first year or two of his Free Agency – what would they see as a fair contract for both sides? Those questions gave us the following responses:

Dan Szymborski, Baseball Think Factory / ESPN: “Every day the Orioles don’t sign or trade Jones, both his trade value and the team’s leverage in negotiating a contract decline.  I’d start and offer 4/32 or something along those lines, but it may be hard if his camp feels that another team will like his defense.”

Bob Harkins, NBC Sports Hardball Talk: “I really like Jones on both sides of the ball. He can cover a lot of ground in the outfield and should get better as he learns more about positioning and judging balls. Remember that he came up in the Mariners system as a shortstop. Speaking of the Mariners, they gave Franklin Gutierrez a 4-year, $20.25 million deal in 2010, with a club option for 2014. Jones is a slightly better hitter than Gutierrez, but not as good in center field, so I think something comparable to that would make sense.”

Jonathan Mitchell, MLB Dirt: “Something in line with what Franklin Guttierez got from Seattle but prorated to fit the proper terms since Jones already has one year of arb under his belt. Guttierez was bought out of all three arb years and one year of free agency. If Adam Jones gets a 4 year deal it would buy out 2 arb years and 2 free agent years and should be in the $27-$30 range and he could hit free agency at the age of 30 after that deal. I would consider that a fair deal for both sides.”

Phil Rogers, Chicago Tribune: “Because of the silly contracts thrown around for players like Ryan Braun and Carlos Gonzalez, that would probably be a very tough deal to put together. There’s precedent there for him to make a killing, so unless he is ultra interested in a long-term deal I’d let this run its course until he’s a year away from free agency, then I’d make my best offer. Not now.”

JD Sussman, Beyond the Boxscore: “I’d have a hard time doing that (giving him an extension). He isn’t an such an irreplaceable player that the team needs a discount in his free agent years. Take him on the cheap until he is a free agent and reevaluate then. He isn’t a guy I’d invest in.”

I think the O’s may have to go a bit further than the Guttierez extension, but that contract provides a decent frame-work. I’d personally like to see the O’s make extending Jones one of their priorities this off-season.