So here we are, two weeks in. If you want a refresher on the models used in this post, be sure to go to the original post this year. It can be found here.
Expected Wins by the Baltimore Orioles using Five Projections (4/15/2013)
| mJS | PWE | mBP | Parcells | fWAR | |
| 4/1/2013 | 72.6 | 81.0 | 74.9 | 81.0 | 81.0 |
| 4/8/2013 | 73.5 | 97.1 | 75.3 | 81.0 | 115.9 |
| 4/15/2013 | 73.9 | 88.0 | 76.1 | 81.0 | 94.5 |
With it being so early in the season, the models that use 2013 data to make their projections (i.e., PWE (runs scored and give), Parcells (winning percentage), fWAR (team cumulative fWAR)) tend to fluctuate wildly. Models that have use predetermined talent levels are more slowly pushed. As we can see above, both mJS and mBP are slowly moving the Orioles upward. For mJS, if that slope continues then we can expect to see the team finish with around 90.8 wins. For mBP, it would be 91.7 wins. However, I am unsure whether we should expect those slope to continue.
The three systems where I have games back determined have the Orioles 10.0, 11.9, and 5.5 games back for the mJS, mBP, and fWAR models, respectively. mBP goes further and gives playoff percentages. The Orioles have increased their likelihood from 6.5% to 7.9%.
Below, we have the fWAR standings reported more fully:
AL Final Standings by fWAR (4/15/2013)
| Team | Wins | fWAR | Final | Rank |
| Tigers | 7 | 5 | 113.0 | Central |
| Rangers | 8 | 4.1 | 98.2 | West |
| Athletics | 9 | 4 | 98.1 | WC1 |
| Red Sox | 7 | 3.4 | 97.5 | East |
| Yankees | 6 | 3.1 | 92.4 | WC2 |
| Orioles | 6 | 3.4 | 92.0 | |
| Royals | 7 | 3.1 | 89.3 | |
| White Sox | 5 | 2.2 | 76.0 | |
| Indians | 5 | 1.9 | 74.9 | |
| Blue Jays | 4 | 1.4 | 67.0 | |
| Astros | 4 | 1.5 | 66.3 | |
| Mariners | 6 | 1.4 | 63.7 | |
| Twins | 4 | 1 | 61.5 | |
| Angels | 4 | 1 | 60.0 | |
| Rays | 4 | 0.1 | 49.2 |
Last week, the Orioles were nabbing the first wild card entry. This week they wind up 0.4 games behind the Yankees in picking up the second wild card entry.
NL Final Standings by fWAR (4/15/2013)
| Team | Wins | fWAR | Final | Rank |
| Braves | 11 | 4.8 | 114.5 | East |
| Dodgers | 7 | 5.1 | 114.3 | West |
| Dbacks | 8 | 4.5 | 107.8 | WC1 |
| Rockies | 8 | 4.2 | 104.0 | WC2 |
| Mets | 7 | 3.8 | 103.0 | |
| Giants | 9 | 3.7 | 94.6 | |
| Cardinals | 7 | 3 | 88.0 | Central |
| Reds | 5 | 2.6 | 81.0 | |
| Nationals | 7 | 2.3 | 79.3 | |
| Cubs | 4 | 2.4 | 77.5 | |
| Phillies | 6 | 2.2 | 77.0 | |
| Brewers | 3 | 0.9 | 59.2 | |
| Pirates | 6 | 0 | 49.5 | |
| Marlins | 2 | -0.7 | 36.8 | |
| Padres | 2 | -1.4 | 28.0 |
Jon Shepherd founded the Baltimore Orioles blog Camden Depot in 2007. In addition to Baltimore Orioles analysis, the blog also focuses on qualitative and quantitative approaches to assessing baseball in general as well as providing mainstream reviews and commentary on substances alleged to performance enhancing. Dr. Shepherd’s writing has been featured on ESPN, and his blog has been part of the ESPN Sweetspot Network since May 2011. He has made radio and podcast appearances for Orioles’ centered programs.