So here we are, two weeks in.  If you want a refresher on the models used in this post, be sure to go to the original post this year.  It can be found here.

Expected Wins by the Baltimore Orioles using Five Projections (4/22/2013)

mJS PWE mBP Parcells fWAR
4/1/2013 72.6 81.0 74.9 81.0 81.0
4/8/2013 73.5 97.1 75.3 81.0 115.9
4/15/2013 73.9 88.0 76.1 81.0 94.5
4/22/2013 75.3 90.4 77.6 90.0 86.2

The five system as slowly contracting towards each other as we are three weeks into the year.  However, this should be nowhere near enough games to know what will happen by the end of the year.  All three models that I have games back data on, put the Orioles at least 10 behind the division lead.

Now for the fWAR.

AL Final Standings by fWAR (4/22/2013)

Team Wins fWAR Final Rank
Tigers 9 6.7 104.4 Central
Rangers 12 6.2 103.4 West
Yankees 10 5.5 99.0 East
Red Sox 12 5.4 97.0 WC1
Athletics 12 5.5 94.9 WC2
Indians 7 4.6 88.3
Royals 10 4.2 87.9
Orioles 10 4.3 86.2
Twins 8 2.3 73.2
Rays 8 2.5 69.8
ChiSox 7 2.4 68.0
Blue Jays 8 1.9 63.8
Angels 7 1.6 62.7
Astros 5 1.4 58.0
Mariners 7 0.5 51.7

Second week in a row without playoff dreams.

NL Final Standings by fWAR (4/22/2013)

Team Wins fWAR Final Rank
Rockies 13 6.8 109.2 West
Braves 13 6.6 107.6 East
Reds 11 6.4 100.7 Central
Giants 12 5 91.1 WC1
Dbacks 10 4.9 91.0 WC2
Mets 9 4.6 90.3
Cardinals 10 4.4 87.0
Dodgers 8 4.2 83.4
Nationals 10 3.4 79.0
Brewers 9 2.8 75.0
Pirates 10 2.7 73.4
Phillies 8 2.7 69.8
Cubs 5 2.1 65.0
Padres 5 -0.4 43.6
Marlins 4 -0.4 42.5
Jon Shepherd
Jon Shepherd

Jon Shepherd founded the Baltimore Orioles blog Camden Depot in 2007. In addition to Baltimore Orioles analysis, the blog also focuses on qualitative and quantitative approaches to assessing baseball in general as well as providing mainstream reviews and commentary on substances alleged to performance enhancing. Dr. Shepherd’s writing has been featured on ESPN, and his blog has been part of the ESPN Sweetspot Network since May 2011. He has made radio and podcast appearances for Orioles’ centered programs.

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