Paper Orioles: Win Projections on 7/19/2013
At the break, we have the Orioles on the fringe of being in the playoffs according to a few of the models. It appears that the team is settling somewhere in the mid 80s for a projection. However, now is also a time things get interesting as a few teams will marginally improve themselves by adding a key arm or bat. Likewise, a team here or there will become worse. These actions are not fully accounted for in these projections and, in all honesty, any addition or subtraction is unlikely to help much. Teams, for the most part, win or lose based on their team as a whole. It is rare for one individual to change a team’s fortune (e.g., Carlos Beltran, Randy Johnson) or for a group of players to do the same (e.g., Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez, Joe Saunders, Manny Machado).
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Anyway, here is where we are with the projections:
As mentioned before, the team is hovering in its projection. Here is how Baseball Prospectus has viewed their postseason chances.
Now, what does this tell me? It tells me that the Orioles are within striking distance of the playoffs. Furthermore, even though any added players are unlikely to help the team make the playoffs due to them being unlikely to significantly add a win or two to the total team total, we do not know if their presence in the playoffs is in doubt only by a win or two. This is really one of those moments where it makes sense to mortgage elements of the future to better your team. Perhaps, mortgage all of it is a foolhardy proposition, but the loss of a Jonathan Schoop or Nicky Delmonico is not the worst thing that could happen. Combine that with the window shutting on Nick Markakis’ or J.J. Hardy’s time with the team and it makes sense to make a jump for that window.
And now the full fWAR standings for the AL:
And the NL: