Ravens Q&A w/ National Analysts

With three Exhibition games in the book, the Ravens September 11th Season Opener in Baltimore is fast approaching. Baltimore Sports and Life has reached out to several NFL Writers for their thoughts on the Ravens. Those questioned were:

Bear Heiser, National Football Authority
NationalFootballAuthority.com
Twitter: http://twitter.com/#!/bearheiser
Twitter: http://twitter.com/#!/NFAuthority

Nathan Jahnke, Pro Football Focus
http://www.profootballfocus.com/
Twitter: http://twitter.com/#!/PFF_NateJahnke
Twitter: http://twitter.com/#!/ProFootbalFocus

Danny Tuccitto, Football Outsiders
http://footballoutsiders.com/
Twitter: http://twitter.com/#!/FO_DTuccitto
Twitter: http://twitter.com/#!/fboutsiders

Baltimore Sports and Life thanks each of these Analysts for taking the time to contribute.

Baltimore Sports and Life: “I believe most analysts would give the edge to Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin, and his Coordinators – Dick LeBeau, and Bruce Arians – over Baltimore’s John Harbaugh, and his Coordinators – Chuck Pagano, and Cam Cameron. Do you see a gulf in ability between the Steelers and Ravens Coaching staffs?”

Heiser: “If you look purely at head coaches, I give the edge to Mike Tomlin. Sure, he’s been in the job one year longer than John Harbaugh, but that hardly matters considering Tomlin won a Super Bowl in 2008, in his second season after taking the job. While Harbaugh has had great success in the role, something must be said for three consecutive playoff losses—two of them at the hands of the Steelers.The real edge comes into play with the defensive coordinators. Over the years, the Ravens have had some nasty defensive units. But, they’ve struggled to retain their coordinator’s along the way. Chuck Pagano has been with Harbaugh since the beginning, but is now a first year defensive coordinator. As far as the Steelers go, Dick LeBeau has been with the team since 2004; and prior to that, he’s had quite a few stints with the team. So, I think it’s safe to say that LeBeau has some rapport built up with his players as well as management. You have to give the edge to the Steelers.”

Jahnke: “At Pro Football Focus, we’re looking at rating the players on every play, and how they do at what they attempted to do. We do that because we can directly see what a player did, and if he succeeded or not in what we attempted to do. We can’t directly see what the coaches do, so we have no way of measuring them. With that said, I believe both coaching staffs have been able to bring in players and make the most out of them. They each have different schemes, and each works for that team. While each staff likely has their strengths, I don’t think the gap between them overall is that big.”

Tuccitto: “Not to dodge your question, but I think evaluating coaches is one of the hardest things to do as an outsider, mainly because it’s really difficult to figure out — at least in a statistical sense — how much of a team’s success is due to good coaching as opposed to talented players. Both Tomlin and Harbaugh stepped into incredibly favorable situations from a personnel perspective. Would the Steelers and Ravens have been as successful over the past three years if their front offices weren’t two of the best in the league in acquiring young talent? What about the luxury of having a quarterback like Ben Roethlisberger or Joe Flacco? Just like bad quarterbacks are coach-killers, good quarterbacks are coach-makers. It’s just really hard to tease out a coach’s contribution to team success without observing them on the practice field, sitting in on team meetings, and the like.

With that said, sometimes looking at team performance is worthwhile. For instance, Pagano has coached his secondaries to success no matter where he’s been. In fact, between Cleveland, Oakland, and Baltimore, only once has his team been outside the top 10 in pass defense according to our DVOA metric. So, even with disparate talent, the guy seems to get the job done. The same can be said about Cameron, who’s benefited from coaching some good running backs, but he also turned Gus Frerotte into a Pro Bowler, and Antwaan Randle El into an All-American quarterback.

Arians is kind of the opposite; a coach whose performance is more tied to the talent level. In Cleveland — on the same staff as Pagano, no less — he was stuck with a bunch of nothing at the skill positions, and their offense ranked in the 20s every year he was there. In Pittsburgh, better talent has led to better offense.

All in all, I’d say it’s more of a push than people probably realize. LeBeau is a living legend, so that probably gives Pittsburgh an edge. But, again, it’s just too hard of a nut to crack for me to make any bold declarations one way or the other.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “The Ravens defense should look more athletic in the 2011 season. Terrence Cody has replaced Kelly Gregg on the line, and should be one half of a formidable Tackle duo with Ngata. After missing all of last year, Sergio Kindle has been cleared for contact, and in camp is showing the pass rushing skills which had Baltimore select him in the 2nd round last year. The Secondary was bolstered by the 1st round selection of Jimmy Smith. What will be the biggest difference with the Ravens Defense this year? Will it be the fresh legs of the aforementioned players, or Coach Pagano who has promised a more aggressive scheme?”

Heiser: “I think the addition of cornerback Jimmy Smith will go down as one of the bigger steals of the 2011 NFL Draft. Smith has a ton of potential. He’s a tough, physical defender who has the immediate capability of running with the league’s top receivers. Smith is a do-it-all type corner. His physicality allows him to play on the line of scrimmage, but he can also play off the line, too. At 6-2, 205 pounds, Smith can and should start receiving comparisons to corners like Nnamdi Asomugha and Ike Taylor.
With Sergio Kindle returning, the defense will look a whole lot better this season. He has tremendous skills in the open-field, due to great sideline to sideline speed and above-average tackling ability. But I suggest taking all of that with a grain of salt, because it will take some time for Kindle to get re-acclimated with the speed of the game.”

Jahnke: “Around this time, every coach and defensive coordinator is saying they will be more aggressive. While it might be true in this case, I don’t see their philosophy changing that much because on defense what they do works for the most part. I think the biggest difference will be the fresh legs, and it will be most noticeable in the defensive backfield. Josh Wilson stepped up big time allowing just 44% of passes thrown his way to be caught which was the fourth best in the league for cornerbacks. Dawan Landry was also a solid performer with 35 stops which was third best for safeties. Those are some big shoes to fill by Jimmy Smith and Tom Zbikowski.”

Tuccitto: “First, let me just say that, the Ravens’ defense was still pretty darn good last year from a statistical perspective, so any improvement they might show this year will probably be in the subtleties of the game. For instance, Cody replacing Gregg might not register much in terms of performance, but it makes them a lot younger at a vital position in the 3-4 for a bargain basement price.

I think that the big difference in what people perceived of Baltimore’s defense last year — that it wasn’t aggressive enough — had a lot to do with the rash of injuries to their secondary. With less talent and experience on the back end, Greg Mattison was forced to let up on the throttle somewhat. In 2009, they used three rushers only 6.2 percent of the time. In 2010, that skyrocketed to 17.3 percent. Similarly, defensive backs accounted for only 3.7 percent of the team’s sacks last year, after accounting for 7.8 percent in 2009. A lot of that had to do with Suggs and Ngata having much better seasons sackwise, but I think some nontrivial amount can be chalked up to Mattison simplifying the defense when confronted with a revolving door in the starting secondary.

So, to answer your question, it’s probably going to be that the fresh (and healed) legs allow Pagano to be more aggressive this year than Mattison was able to be last year. In other words, it’s not so much that Pagano brings more aggressiveness as much as it is that the available players will allow Pagano to be more aggressive than his predecessor. I’m starting to sense a theme here with the players vs. coaching thing.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “At FB, 2010 All-Pro Vonta Leach has replaced 2x All-Pro Le’Ron McClain. Is it accurate to say Leach is the better pure blocker, and McClain has better running and pass catching abilities out of the backfield?”

Heiser: “Yes, it is absolutely safe to say that. The decision to walk away from Le’Ron McClain puzzles me—especially considering they kicked off the offseason by releasing backup running back Willis McGahee. With the two of them gone, Rice remained the only dependable ball carrier. And in today’s NFL, one rusher just isn’t enough. Now even though Vonta Leach is a better blocker than McClain, his skills in the other areas aren’t there—yet. It will be interesting to see what Leach’s impact on Rice and the run game will be this year. In his three seasons in the league, Rice has rushed for averages of 4.2, 5.3 and 4.0 yards per carry, respectively. I’m not going to say that Rice has a disappointing 2010 campaign, because 1,220 yards and five touchdowns is hardly disappointing, but Rice needs to improve on his yards per attempt this year, and I think Leach can help him with that.”

Jahnke: “I would agree with that assessment. In both 2008 and 2010, Leach landed in the top five in terms of our blocking rating for fullbacks. At receiving, Leach has put up some solid numbers once he gets the ball in his hands but his catch rate of 73% is lower than a fullback typically has. McClain was good at catching and running after the catch. I’d also have to give McClain the edge at rushing, but that’s simply because Leach hasn’t seen a regular season carry since 2008.”

Tuccitto: “That’s more than fair to say. In Football Outsiders Almanac 2011, we go into some detail about how and why the Ravens’ run offense let them down last year. I think the front office made a concerted effort to improve in that phase of the game. With Ray Rice back there, McClain’s abilities as a runner and receiver seemed redundant, so the logical thing to do was to bring in a lead-blocking fullback to replace them. Now, their backfield is set up a lot like San Diego’s was back when Cameron was the offensive coordinator there: Tomlinson as all-purpose halfback, Lorenzo Neal as lead-blocking fullback.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “While Todd Heap had the highest Yard Per Catch (15), and Yards After the Catch (6.3) averages of his career last year; I’m very comfortable with the idea of 2nd year TE’s Ed Dickson, and Dennis Pitta replacing Heap as a receiver. The biggest question to me is will Dickson and Pitta be able to replace Heap’s blocking on the line, an area where Heap greatly improved over the last couple of years. Is this a legitimate concern, or a non-issue to you? Do you have similar confidence in Dickson, and Pitta in matching/exceeding Heap’s 2010 production?”

Heiser: “No, I do not share your confidence in Dickson and Pitta. Heap had spent 10 seasons in Baltimore, and that experience should not be discounted. The best offenses in the league are the best because the entire unit is in sync. When it comes to blocking, the tight ends need to know where to be, when to break off their block and know what their quarterback is going to do before the quarterback does it. I see the tight end as one of the most important positions on the field. The tight end is often called a “safety net” for a quarterback, and that is absolutely true. To be honest, I wouldn’t be shocked to see more blown blocking assignments than in recent years.”

Jahnke: “I lack the confidence you do in their receiving ability, and share your concern in blocking. While Dickson showed that he could put up similar numbers to Heap on a per catch basis; Heap was a bit better at catching the ball. Heap brought in over 70% of balls thrown his way, while Dickson caught just 52%. Also in terms of drops, Dickson dropped one in every 10 balls thrown at him, while Heap dropped one in 19. As for Pitta, we haven’t seen enough of him to get a good sense of how he will do, with just one catch as a rookie. In terms of blocking, Dickson rated out as our worst run blocking tight end in 2010 while Pitta, he was below average, but he only was in on running plays 49 times. You always expect improvement in a players second year, but I don’t think that will be enough to fill the gap between them and Heap.”

Tuccitto: “Sounds like a good assessment to me. Dickson and Pitta will do just fine replacing Heap as a receiver. Replacing him as a blocker is another story. However, I do think this ties into your last question. With a lead-blocking fullback, the offense is less reliant on a blocking tight end, so the addition of Leach mitigates the need for Heap. Again, I think Cameron’s offense in San Diego is instructive here. I seem to remember they had (and have) a guy named Antonio Gates, who’s never been considered a good blocker; but they didn’t need one with Neal at fullback. That’s your blueprint right there.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Salary was saved by cutting Willis McGahee, and replacing him with Ricky Williams. On the field, was anything gained or lost with this change at backup RB?”

Heiser: “You know what, I really like Ricky Williams. Sure, he’s had his issues in the league—but now-a-days, who hasn’t. Williams is a smart runner, and a faster runner than McClain. If Ray Rice were to go down with an injury, I would have full confidence in Williams being able to shoulder the load. I also think Williams offers more variety to the offense, as he is a far superior pass catcher and blocker.”

Jahnke: “In terms of running, the two backs are comparable so not a gain or loss in the most important aspect of the change. However just a little was lost in terms of the pass game. While McGahee wasn’t used too often as a receiver last year; he was reliable when he was thrown at. It’s difficult to compare because McGahee on average was thrown at a few yards behind the line of scrimmage, while Williams was typically thrown at around the line of scrimmage. Because of that their yards look very different last year, but their yards after the catch look very similar. There is also a little bit of a drop off in terms of pass blocking, but I think the Ravens will rarely ask Williams to do this.”

Tuccitto: “Not really. They’re basically the same back, so, like with the Cody for Gregg move, the Ravens are saving money without sacrificing performance much, if at all. I’d add, however, that Williams’ role might be different than McGahee’s insofar as it’s still an open question as to whether he’ll be getting the bulk of the goal line work. If he does, then Williams is definitely just McGahee redux.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “After the Week 8 bye, Anquan Boldin had just 26 catches for 319 yards. Why that happened is a question for me as the Ravens head into 2011. My guess of part of the reason Boldin was a non-factor in the 2nd half, was that defenses had a lot of guys in the box to limit Rice, and that the Ravens lacked a deep threat in the receiving core. With both Mason, and Houshmandzadeh on the field next to Boldin, the Baltimore offense was running a lot shorter routes (also because of the lack of blocking up-front). With those shorter routes, it was my sense that Flacco was most comfortable with Mason – the receiver he had the most experience with. With more speed surrounding him, should we expect Boldin’s production to increase in 2011?”

Heiser: “Boldin is a freakish wide receiver. He has all the skills you want in a No. 1. Problem is Boldin had never been a No. 1 before, due to spending all but one year of his career with Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona. Now even though Boldin caught 101 passes for 1,377 yards and eight scores in his rookie year without Fitz, it didn’t take long for Boldin to fall back to the Cardinals second option. The addition of Lee Evans is what Boldin needs to get back to 100 catch territory. With a year under his belt with quarterback Joe Flacco, I fully expect Boldin to once again be near the top of the league as far as wideouts go.”

Jahnke: “Both the number of times he was thrown at as well as what he did when he was thrown at dropped off last year. I expect him to rebound and be more productive when he’s thrown at, but I’m not sure if the opportunities will be there. I believe defenses had more respect for Mason and Houshmandzadeh then they will for Evans and Smith. Because of that, I wouldn’t be surprised if teams focused even more on Boldin when he’s in the slot, making it harder for him to get a lot of catches but easier for those around him.”

Tuccitto: “In short, yes. One thing I’d add to your analysis, though, is that Boldin himself became the deep threat in lieu of anyone else fitting the bill. Given that the Ravens use play-action more than any other team, they were desperate. That’s why, shortly before they picked up Lee Evans, we identified deep-threat wide receiver as their biggest hole. The idea now is for Evans to assume the deep-threat role, and Boldin to return to the possession role that he partially vacated last year to help the team.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “I like the long-term potential of Torrey Smith, and believe Tandon Doss has a chance to help as a possession receiver (also the return game). I was not excited about going into this year having to rely on either one, and thus was very happy with the Lee Evans addition. Evans clearly gives the Ravens some stretch the field ability. Evans is essentially replacing Mason, a receiver that Flacco was very comfortable with, and who obviously knew the offense. Do you see going from Mason to Evans as a clear upgrade?”

Heiser: “Yes, absolutely I do. Early on in the summer, Evans talked publicly about how disappointed he’s been with his performance in recent years and discussed how he got himself in better shape for the upcoming season. I think Ravens fans will be thrilled with what Evans can offer Joe Flacco and the offense. He instantly makes Anquan Boldin better, and adds significant depth to the receiver group. Evans can do a lot of things on the field. He isn’t one of those guys who can only run three routes; I wouldn’t be surprised to see him line up in various places on the field this season.”

Jahnke: “It’s tough to tell. On the surface the numbers don’t say it’s a giant leap forward. In 2010 on passes beyond 20 yards, Mason caught eight of 24 balls thrown his way for 242 yards and three touchdowns, compared to Evans who caught 7 of 26 balls for 245 yards and two touchdowns. The difference in quarterback play though can take the blame for some of this, so Evans should offer something different. The real problem is Mason was a big safety valve who did so much on the less glamorous plays, so losing him could impact the ability to move the chains consistently.”

Tuccitto: See previous question.

Baltimore Sports and Life: “The Ravens moved Tuesday to sign ’09 Pro Bowler Bryant McKinnie, to help address the line. McKinnie ate his way out of Minnesota, so it first has to be determined what type of shape he is in. If he is quickly football ready, should he be inserted at RT, or take over LT with Oher moving back to the right side? The other issue for the Baltimore Offensive Line is at Center with Matt Birk. While the Ravens expect the Veteran to be ready for the Opener, the 35 year-old 6x Pro Bowler was still pushed around frequently last year. After coming off the knee surgery, there is plenty of reason to question if Birk will be able to last through the season. With McKinnie signed, what are your impressions of the Ravens line in-general?”

Heiser: “If the newly added Byrant McKinnie can get back to his playing weight, I think the Ravens will have one daunting offensive line. You are going to see either Michael Oher or Jah Reid line up on the right side. As for who is better at this stage, I probably would have to give the nod to Oher. He successfully played the left tackle position; sure, he wasn’t the best left tackle in the league, but he proved to be servicable. Reid probably needs some time to develop before you can throw him in there without worry.”

Jahnke: “The Ravens offensive line has the potential to be one of the better ones in the league. I would agree with the decision to put McKinnie on the left and Oher on the right. When Oher has lined up at left tackle these past two years, he allowed 2.7 pressures per game, while on the right he’s allowed just 1.4. The Ravens would prefer him to be their franchise left tackle but he looks like a more natural fit on the right side. McKinnie has only played on the left side, so transitioning to this offense will be easier for him if he doesn’t have to change positions too. In the middle, I would disagree with you completely on Birk. Week in and week out he was pushing people around in the run game and was on the same level as Nick Mangold. At his age durability is always a concern though, especially with knee problems he’s had. At guard, Ben Grubbs is a solid player, and Marshal Yanda has excelled at both guard and tackle. If McKinnie gets his act together the line will open plenty of holes, and put Flacco in a position to succeed.”

Tuccitto: “Unless I’m wrong, it’s been reported that McKinnie’s going to starter at left tackle, with Oher moving back to right tackle. My overall impression of the line is that I don’t think they were as bad as people seem to think they were last season. As we detail in the book, a lot of the pass protection issues were because Flacco held onto the ball too long, and some of their lack of explosiveness in the running game had to do with Rice’s knee injury and his inability to break tackles like he did in 2009. At the same time, things were definitely looking dicey before they signed McKinnie. Four of the five projected starters were injured, inexperienced, or playing out of position. Now, with McKinnie in the fold, all that’s left at issue is getting healthy. No more rookies, no more players out of position; basically just the line Baltimore was hoping to have in 2010.
In terms of the injuries, all indications are that both Birk and Yanda will be ready by Week 1. Birk played with a hurt knee at the end of last season, so I wouldn’t be too worried about him. Who knows? This whole surgery thing may have been just a veteran ploy to avoid the preseason, right? Yanda just has back spasms, and has already returned to practice. Even if he suffered a flare-up at some point, the Ravens are much better prepared for it now thanks to the McKinnie signing allowing Cousins and Reid to play guard instead of tackle.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Who is more talented, Jared Gaither or Michael Oher?”

Heiser: NA.

Jahnke: “When healthy, Gaither has shown more talent, as he was one of the best left tackles in 2009 despite missing some games. He allowed just one pressure per game in 2009 compared to what Oher has had at left tackle, and Gaither was also a better run blocker. It will be difficult for Gaither to return to his 2009 form however so it is difficult to say who will be better going forward.”

Tuccitto: “Reliability is an underrated talent in the NFL. In that sense, Oher is clearly more talented than Gaither. Personally, I get the heebie-jeebies about chronic back injuries. Drew Rosenhaus may have declared him completely healed (surprise!), but the Raiders doctors didn’t think he was, and he’s spent as much time on an exercise bike at Chiefs practices as he has on the field. With that said, I don’t think anyone would disagree with the view that Gaither, when healthy, is a better left tackle than Oher. Despite whatever the Ravens have said in the past, it was pretty clear that they drafted Oher to play right tackle, with Gaither already in place on the left side. Maybe it was insurance in the event Gaither couldn’t stay healthy, but it’s hard to believe they planned for Oher to be their permanent left tackle. To boot, Oher was considered an elite run-blocker coming out of college, which might be one reason why the Ravens ran behind left tackle last season almost twice as often as the average NFL team, and 25 percent more than they did with Gaither at left tackle in 2009. So, I guess my answer here is that, given the different responsibilities between the two positions, we’re comparing apples and oranges. I think Gaither is the better left tackle, but Oher is the better right tackle. It’s not Oher’s fault he spent the last year on the opposite side. And, obviously, given what I just said, signing McKinnie is huge because it allows Oher to slide back over to the right side.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Flacco has started every game of his NFL career. If that streak ends this year, the current backup is the rookie Tyrod Taylor. In a year with Super Bowl aspirations, should a veteran presence be obtained? I don’t see a lot of good options on the FA Market, with Jeff Garcia (who spent last year in the UFL) as probably my favorite. If you think the Ravens should grab a vet, who of the currently available do you see as the best fit?”

Heiser: “This is simple; Tyrod Taylor is extremely underrated at this stage. If you aren’t convinced that he can play after watching what he’s done so far this preseason, then I don’t know what to tell you.”

Jahnke: “Because we only do our analysis on regular and post season games, and Tyrod Taylor has yet to play a snap there, I can’t judge how well he could do as a potential replacement. If Troy Smith and the Ravens would be open for a reunion, he is by far the most reliable option available. Since he has been with the team before it would make the fit much easier. For that matter, trying to get Marc Bulger out of retirement in this situation wouldn’t be a terrible idea either. The idea of Garcia does sound nice, but a combination of his time away from the NFL, his age, and his lack of knowledge of the offense puts him at a disadvantage compared to the other two. There really aren’t great options out there.”

Tuccitto: “At this point, the current free agents are pretty underwhelming. Therefore, the Ravens’ best bet is probably to wait and see who other teams end up cutting. When the time comes to sign someone, the main qualification is experience in the Coryell offense. If the guy’s purpose is to fill in for Flacco in a pinch, it’s important that he’s already familiar with the offensive philosophy. (See the Bulger signing last year.) Backup quarterbacks don’t get many practice reps during the season, so the idea of a free agent coming in at the end of preseason, and learning a new style of offense without being able to practice it seems far-fetched. And yes, this means I think they need to find a better backup than Taylor.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “The three primary issues of criticism for Flacco’s play are his limitations over the middle of the field, his propensity for checking down, and that he does not get rid of the ball quick enough. All of those critiques might be fair, and I myself have regularly spoken about the need for Flacco to improve against the Cover 2 zones over the middle. That said, I think there is often not enough focus on all of the positives Flacco brings to the table. For the 2nd consecutive year, he threw for 3,600+ yards. He had a QB Rating of 93.6%, and had 25 TD’s against just 10 picks. He has also now won 4 playoff games (all on the road). If he is not in that elite group of P. Manning, Brady, Brees, Rivers, Rodgers and Roethlisberger; I would argue he is at the top of that next tier. Do you agree?”

Heiser: “I would say that Flacco is in the middle of the second tier of quarterbacks. I still need to see him become more of a leader on the field, but I anticipate that changing this season. Flacco is in the same boat as Eli Manning for me at this stage.”

Jahnke: “I wouldn’t say he’s at the top of the next tier but he is definitely in it. First off I would include Matt Ryan in that elite group. If you want to include rushing, then Vick belongs there but in terms of just passing Flacco is better than him. The only other players I would argue above Flacco are Matt Schaub and Eli Manning. While the numbers you gave are all in favor of Flacco, they aren’t all the best measures for measuring a quarterback. At Pro Football Focus, we have a number called accuracy percentage, which is a slightly more complex completion percentage taking into account dropped passes, passes thrown away and spikes as well as completions. Flacco had a 70% accuracy percentage, which was right in the middle of the league for starters. The low interceptions are a plus, but the yards and touchdowns also say a bit about his ability to stay healthy. While the playoff wins are nice, I would argue the defense had more to do with those victories then the offense with the exception maybe being the Chiefs game. Both Schaub and Manning have their problems too, but I would say each are better by a small margin”

Tuccitto: “I agree he’s in that next tier. Where exactly in that tier is a matter of personal taste given what different people look at when evaluating quarterbacks. Obviously, if you’re the kind of person who only looks at winning, then it’s hard to argue with Flacco’s 32-16 regular season record and those four road playoff wins. If you’re more statistically inclined, perhaps you look at Pro Football Reference’s predictive stat, adjusted yards per attempt. According to them, he’s been just about average among starters since he’s been in the league. At Football Outsiders, our stats put him just outside the top 10, and trending upward. I think Flacco gets undervalued in a lot of people’s minds because, like Mark Sanchez, he’s won a lot of games thanks in no small part to arriving at the perfect destination for a rookie quarterback: strong defense and strong running game. Unlike Sanchez, however, Flacco has actually been a valuable contributor to his team’s success; at least according to our stats. When it comes to being an efficient NFL passer, it’s not even close. And yet, people seem to lump Flacco into the “his defense and running game carries him to victory” group. Something else about Flacco that gets overlooked is that he’s improved as a passer each season. According to our per-play efficiency metric, defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), he’s improved from 22nd to 19th to 15th among quarterbacks. Similarly, he’s improved from 19th to 14th to 11th in our total value metric, defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR).

One thing I’ll mention about your analysis, which kind of brings things full circle, relates to Flacco’s perceived weakness as a checkdown lover. First, it’s just not true. According to our game charters, only three teams threw short less frequently than the Ravens did last season (76 percent). Second, to the extent that he does check down, those plays end up being much more efficient than the league average (BAL ranked 3rd in DVOA on short passes in 2010). Third, the Ravens ranked 11th in DVOA on deep passes last season, and most of that was thanks to what I said earlier about Boldin. While I’m at it, I might as well also mention that the Ravens had the most efficient offense in the NFL last season on passes in the middle of the field after ranking 27th in that category the previous season. Those stats aren’t specific to Cover-2, but it sure looks as though he’s at least improved a lot on passes between the numbers.

Finally, to end things on a positive note, I’ll note that, according to our system that compares a quarterback’s stats to those of every other quarterback since 1978, Flacco’s 2010 season was most similar to his own 2009 season, which was in turn most similar to Joe Montana’s 1981 season. Similarly, Flacco’s most recent two-year performance was most similar to his own 2008-2009 performance, which in turn was most similar to Tom Brady’s 2003-2004 performance. Finally, Flacco’s first three seasons have been most similar to Brady’s first three seasons. That’s some pretty good company I think.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Will the Ravens host a home playoff game this January?”

Heiser: “The answer is yes. I think the Steelers will fall off a bit this season. Ravens will finish 12-4 and win the AFC North.”

Jahnke: “My guess would be no but like every year it will be close. It will take some time before the passing game can reach its potential, and the losses in the secondary will also hurt them. My guess is they make the playoffs again, but they’ll likely have to take their team on the road yet again.”

Tuccitto: “OK, I lied; going to end things on a negative note. According to our team projections in Football Outsiders Almanac 2011, the answer is no. That is, unless they host the sixth-seeded Jets in the AFC Championship game. Stranger things have happened, though, and it is possible that we’re wrong.”