Since 2009, there have been 10 teams that rang up 5 wins in a season. In this article I take a close look at each team and how they did the following season. How did they respond to their 5-win campaign? This game is so much an issue of properly dealing with both adversity and success when they show up. In a previous article, I looked at the response on a drive-level analysis of touchdowns and turnovers for teams. The focus becomes increasingly macro in this article as the team and organization are examined at the annual level.
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Nothing necessarily magical about a 5-win team, except for the fact that they had but 5 wins. I could have bunched 4, 5 and 6 win teams together to increase the dataset and perhaps I’ll do that at a later date but today the focus is on 5-win teams and how they responded the very next season. Several teams found themselves with new coaches after their 5-win season and the Ravens clearly do not find themselves in that situation. They sit with a coach who has won a world championship with the organization back at Superbowl 47.
The numbers show that the 10 teams from 2009-2014 having 5 wins had an average win total of 6.8 the following season. Three teams from 2015 sit ready to respond: Ravens, 49ers and Jags. Of these three, the 49ers are the lone team with a new head coach – Chip Kelly looks to reverse the fortunes in Santa Clara, or… – San Francisco. Let’s take a closer look at the 10 teams from 2009-2014.
| year | week | GameMean | Season2dateMean | OFFGameMean | Season2dateOFFMean | DEFGameMean | Season2dateDEFMean | win | short1 | Pts | short2 | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 1 | -3.225 | -3.225 | 80.6494 | 80.6494 | -76.063 | -76.063 | L | JAX | 23 | GB | 27 |
| 2016 | 2 | -100.9335 | -52.0792 | -84.023 | -1.6868 | -110.9394 | -93.5012 | L | JAX | 14 | SD | 38 |
| 2016 | 1 | 23.7833 | 23.7833 | -23.6529 | -23.6529 | 50.6203 | 50.6203 | W | BAL | 13 | BUF | 7 |
| 2016 | 2 | -24.6229 | -0.4198 | -4.2635 | -13.9582 | -61.746 | -5.5629 | W | BAL | 25 | CLE | 20 |
The formula Includes changing GM or HC or maybe doing nothing at all. It has resulted in an average gain in wins the following season of +1.8. Only two teams had a lower win total the following year. For the moment, we will focus on the two teams that jumped from 5 wins to 10 wins the following year. The 2013 Cardinals and the 2012 Redskins. Both of those teams doubled their win total from the previous season. Each had a major addition at the QB position but it very different fashions. The Cardinals signed Carson Palmer and the Redskins drafted RGIII. The Cardinals also brought in Bruce Arians to be the HC and promoted Steve Keim from within the organization to the GM after double firings at the end of 2012. The Redskins stayed the course and made no changes to the staff, instead drafting RGIII with the second pick of the 2012 draft. The Ravens get Flacco back after an ACL injury last November and have made no changes to the four positions highlighted. A little mix of both here for the Ravens looking into 2016.
Looking back at the table, the Team Q, OFF Q and DEF Q can be explained as follows: The Q-score is a metric analyzing performance from all possible drive outcomes ranging from touchdown to turnover returned for a defensive touchdown on a single success scale. NFL team averages reveal 200 offensive and defensive drives each season. Just over 50% will end in a punt but taking in to account yardage in relation to starting field position gives important information into a team’s ability control field position. The metric processes starting field position, net yardage, drive result and game context through a 2-D functional surface heavily weighting drives initiated at the extreme ends of the field. For more information on Q-scores and the game visualizations, take a look at www.theQ5.com – especially as a way to visualize the data from each game in exact chronological order.
What to expect from the Ravens in 2016 – in my opinion….. 8-8 but finishing the season against the Steelers and Bengals means they has better get to 8 before game 15. Maybe things fall their way and they get to 10-6…. How do the Ravens stack up week 1 in 2016? Gabe Ferguson does a nice job previewing week 1 for us as the Ravens take on the Bills. The early part of the season will be very telling as to the success of the 2016 campaign. They’ll need to make sure they win all the winnable games and hope for some injuries to hit opponents in the middle of the schedule. Could work out well especially if Flacco can find his form early in the year. Either way it will be fun to watch. NFL football start tomorrow night!
Dr. Guyader is the Owner / Founder of The Q5.com, which specializes in Football Visualizations and Drive Analytics. Additionally, Guyader has 10 years of Division I football experience coaching top-tier and historic programs. From guiding third round NFL draft pick Ramses Barden for four seasons at Cal Poly to converting 6-foot 10-inch lineman Ali Villanueva to wide receiver at the United States Military Academy at West Point, Andy knows how to coach on the field and how to game-plan in a meeting.