It’s been a productive Winter Meetings for several MLB organizations; less so for the Baltimore Orioles. Once again, we go around the web to discuss some of the stories of the day with the O’s.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

birdswatcher.com

birdswatcher.com

The links:

MASN: Checking in with Orioles Scouting Director Gary Rajsich

They Said: It will be a much different draft for Rajsich and his staff next June when the O’s have four of the top 73 picks after not selecting until the third round and 90th overall last June. “It is going to be a deep draft according to our projections and hopefully we can get some impact players,” Rajsich said this morning.

We Say: It’s easy to see why Rajsich is smiling in the MASN interview. You had to feel for Rajsich and the Scouting Department this past June when they did not have a selection in the first two rounds. Realistically, each of the impending four selections figure to be among the O’s Top 10 overall prospects when the 2015 season ends.

Baseball Prospectus: Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Prospects

They Said: Josh Hart rates as the O’s 5th best prospect.

We Say: The Baseball Prospectus list was compiled by Chris Mellen. We interviewed Mellen about the O’s system last Month. Mellen’s thoughts on Hart’s season are found there. Let’s hope he is right. Selected 37th overall in the 2013 draft, Hart is an important player in Baltimore’s organization. It should shock no one if Hart rebounds in ’15 – he obviously has talent to be selected so high – but the 2014 season was so poor (sub .600 OPS, 22 bb’s, 88 k’s, 8 xbh’s, in 350 combined ab’s at Delmarva and the Gulf Coast League) that I don’t think he deserves this ranking now.

MASN: Boras on Davis, Wieters, and Chen

They Said: Boras on Davis, and Wieters, “I think both players enjoy playing in Baltimore. They’ve been very successful there and we’ll see what the future has to offer.”  On Chen, “..He’s going to have a great free agent value come next year at this time.”

We Say: I fully expect that 2015 will be Wieters last year in Baltimore. It would have been nice to have had Wieters available all of the ’14 season (especially if the offensive adjustments that he was showing last year had been able to be maintained). Regardless, Wieters will be turning 29 this coming May. At this point in his Major League career, Weiters primary value has come from his defense. He has not shown enough with the bat, to think that if you give him a long-term extension; and he eventually has to be moved from behind the plate – that you will get enough from him offensively to live with him at 1st or DH. According to fWAR, of the 9 most valuable catchers in 2014, 4 of them were age 30 and above during the year. None were as old as 32. So, you have to question not just how long Wieters can stay behind the plate, but how long he can be valuable there.

The pending Free Agency of each player is reason to consider trading them. The O’s Front Office has to at-least ascertain their current trade value. Of the three, the one I would be most willing to move prior to ’15 is Chen. You do have enough other starting pitching talent that you could move the lefty if he brought a desired return (for me, prospects under long-term team control). According to fWAR, he has provided $33.6M in production these past 3 seasons. I could see him getting something like 5 years, $75M from someone next Fall. That would likely be more than I would want to pay for his age 31-35 year old seasons. That said, I don’t think he has to be moved this Winter. He’s the lone lefty on the staff, and having him available for 185 innings provides a degree of comfort.

My preference with Davis would be to push for an extension. I believe I’m in the minority among my BSL O’s Analyst colleagues with wanting to see that. Davis has proven he can be elite. He should have prime years remaining. Logically both ’13 and ’14 look like aberrations, but my thinking is the good Davis is closer to who he really is. I expect production between ’12 and ’13 consistently over the next 5 years.

If I was projecting out his annual production over that period, I would anticipate a cumulative fWAR between 20-22.5. As power declines across the game, I don’t see him as easily replaceable.

The O’s should be working now to determine how viable an extension is. I anticipate that the O’s will not do that, and prefer to see him rebound on the field first. It can also be argued that Davis and Boras would want to gamble on him rebounding vs. locking in an extension now at what could be a bargain price. (Though if I’m the O’s, I’m using Davis’ 2014 struggles to illustrate the point that passing up on a long-term extension with guaranteed dollars is a significant roll of the dice.)

If the O’s determined they were not going to be able to sign him long-term (or, if like my BSL Colleagues – they did not want to sign him to an extension); they would need to think harder about moving him now and getting long-term team controlled talent back, while pursuing a replacement in the lineup. With the O’s having lost Markakis, and Cruz, my sense is that the O’s are committed to having Davis part of their ’15 team. 

CSN Baltimore: Duquette: O’s don’t sign high-profile free agents

They Said: “Keep in mind who the Orioles are, right? We’ve got an established pitching staff and we’ve got a strong everyday lineup. We’ve got to fill a few holes. We’re going to look at some options in the major league free agent market and sign a couple of players. We’ll probably be active in the Rule 5 draft like we have the last couple of years. And we continue to build our team piece by piece,” Duquette said.

We Say: I have no problem with this approach. Duquette’s budget figures to be around $120M for the 2015 season. That’s plenty adequate to build a contender. A couple of days ago there was a report about the O’s being interested in Jonny Gomes. That led to some O’s fans snickering both about the idea of being interested in Gomes, and also not being able to get a deal done with him if they so wanted. My take on that, is that the O’s are interested in a lot of players. If they wanted to get a deal done today with Gomes, they could. Their interest is predicated on the idea that if they can not improve the roster with their preferred options, they could have interest in Gomes later at the right price.

It’s one thing to not be in contention at the top of the Free Agent market, it’s another if the O’s end up struggling to sign the next tier of players. My preference at this point would be to see the O’s sign Michael Morse as their DH, and either Colby Rasmus or Nori Aoki for the OF. Sign two of those three players, and I think the O’s will again be well positioned to contend in the AL East during 2015.

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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