Spring Storylines

With Pitchers and Catchers reporting to camp less than a month from now ( February 18th), let us take a look at some of the leading storylines we anticipate watching unfold this Spring.

1) Is Wada’s place in the rotation secure?

If so, the intrigue that currently exists with the rotation rapidly decreases. Obviously injuries can change things, but if healthy – Guthrie, Britton, and Chen are rotation locks. In my eyes, Arrieta is a near lock as well, especially now that Arrieta has confirmed he expects to be 100% when ST begins. However, I guess there is enough of a question of how his elbow responds, to leave a slim % chance that he is not ready to go when the bell rings.

If you are counting Arrieta like me, that leaves one opening. It seems pretty clear that a stated opportunity to start was part of the incentive Wada had in signing here. I think it would be an upset if he did not begin the year in the rotation.

2) If Wada is in the rotation, what does that mean for the rest of the staff?

Once the O’s get to the point they are regularly using a 5th starter, it is likely they will have a 7 man bullpen.
Johnson, and Gregg are two locks. Who are the other 5?

Camden Depot had a good look yesterday (http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2012/01/os-pitchers-option-years-and-cuts.html) at the options remaining for O’s pitchers, and I think that provides some answers.

Pedro Strop has one option remaining, but it is hard for me to envision him heading back to AAA. If he is not a lock for the pen, he is pretty close. That is three.

I’m a fan of Tommy Hunter, and more importantly, Buck Showalter is as well. Hunter has 26 MLB wins. As we discussed in the Hunter thread (http://baltimoresportsandlife.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=360), some seem him winding-up in the rotation. I don’t see that, but his place on the roster is secure. That is four.

That leaves 3 spots, which figure to be filled out of the group of Berken, Bergesen, Patton, Eveland, Simon, O’Day, Rapada, and Phillips.

Having a LOOGY like Rapada who is not capable of pitching to RH batters at all makes little sense to me, and I think he should be eliminated as an option. I saw Berken at FanFest saying he felt much stronger in his shoulder. Based on that, I was thinking he would have a decent chance to come North. However, with two options remaining, his fate is to begin the year in AAA.

O’Day had two strong, durable years with Texas in ’09, and ’10. I get the sense he goes into ST seen as a favorite to grab a spot. Like Berken though, he has an option remaining. I’d prefer not to lose other pitchers who could help during the season, just to keep O’Day.

Bergesen, Patton, Eveland, and Simon are out of options. There is room for 3 of those 4. I would keep both Patton, and Eveland, partly because they are lefties. That is 6 of the 7. Who do you choose between Bergesen and Simon?

We’ve always believed Bergesen is a guy suited for the back of a ML rotation, or as a swing man out of the bullpen. Pitch F/X shows that during the ’11 season, Bergesen threw a 4 seam fastball over 50% of the time (average velocity 90.9). He threw his 2 seam fastball just 18.2% of the time (average velocity 90.3). Perhaps that disparity explains why his Groundball /Flyball ratio dropped to 0.71 in ’11 vs. 0.93 for his career. His May 14th shutout in Tampa was masterful, and a reminder of Bergesen at his best. From June 1st on, he made just 3 ML starts.

Most of Simon’s numbers are not particularly exciting, and I do think he also gets exposed as a starter. On the plus side of the ledger, in his 115.2 ip with the Birds last year, he averaged 94.6 mph with the fastball. He has legitimate stuff, and I do think is a better asset for the O’s out of the pen.

I can probably make a case for either one, and am comfortable letting them battle it out in the Spring.

This leaves my 12 man staff as:

Guthrie, Britton, Chen, Arrieta, Wada
Johnson, Gregg, Strop, Hunter, Patton, Eveland, and Bergesen or Simon

Which means that…

3) Matusz, Tillman (and O’Day, and Berken) would be ticketed for AAA.

Again, assuming that A) Wada has been promised a rotation spot, B) The rotation favorites get through Spring healthy; Matusz is the one guy that can make things really difficult for the O’s.

I think the plan is for him to start at AAA, and I’m sure the O’s envision things working out that he quickly ascends back to Baltimore. If Matusz arrives into camp in fantastic shape, and looks great in ST; it is going to be difficult to send him back to Norfolk. At his best, he is a highly polished pitcher. If he really forces the issue, the O’s will have consider having Wada in the pen in place of either Patton or Eveland.

4) What happens with Roberts, and 2nd?

All O’s fans have talked about Brian Roberts (http://baltimoresportsandlife.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=171) to death. Without again going through everything, it should be clear fairly early in ST if Roberts is progressing to the point where he expects to be able to play, or not. If he is healthy enough to come North, he will start. If he can’t play, he is not going to just retire and walk away from the $20M he is owed over the next two seasons. I think the likely outcome is a buyout between the O’s and Roberts before the season begins.

Based off of familiarity, I would imagine that Andino gets the first crack at beginning the year as the everyday 2nd baseman. Like several posters here, I would prefer Antonelli to be the 2nd baseman, freeing up Andino as a Super UTI player. Hardy has played 129, 101, and 115 games the past 3 seasons. Based on that, you would expect him to miss some time in ’12. Andino is the best option existing as a backup to Hardy.

5) Markakis, will he be ready for Opening Day?

Markakis believes he will be ready (http://baltimoresportsandlife.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=265), does anything change in the Spring?

6) The everyday lineup and bench?
6a) Who bats leadoff? http://baltimoresportsandlife.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=192
6b) Flaherty or Miller for the last bench spot?

If Roberts is bought out, we are currently looking at an everyday lineup and bench that looks like:

Hardy SS
Markakis RF
Jones CF
Reynolds 3rd
Wieters C
Davis 1st
Reimold LF
Betemit DH
Andino 2nd

Teagarden, Antonelli, Chavez, and Flaherty or Miller

I’d prefer Markakis or Reimold to leadoff, but I’m not overly concerned about that. Flaherty or Miller is an interesting question.

7) Moves that could happen, which would greatly impact the roster?

I’ve been advocating the addition of Cespedes (http://baltimoresportsandlife.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=62). If that happened, we could see him take over LF, Reimold to DH, Betemit to the bench, and the O’s keeping just one of Chavez / Flaherty / Miller.

Some others are advocating the addition of Edwin Jackson (http://baltimoresportsandlife.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=147). If the O’s had Jackson, Wada pretty much has to go to the pen, replacing either Patton or Eveland, and Matusz definitively starts at AAA.

At this point, it seems fairly unlikely, but if Jones was traded (http://baltimoresportsandlife.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=42), his leaving and the return would have multiple ramifications.

Are there other storylines you will be looking for?