Starting to Look at the Starting Pitching

So the Orioles need starting pitching.

That’s not really news — everyone in the league needs starting pitching except possibly the New York Mets, to some degree or another. But a quick look at the numbers Baltimore starters put up last year (or a quick trip down memory lane to that horrific second half of the season) highlights that the Orioles need to address their rotation more than most other teams do. Of course, three of the other clubs most hurting on the mound — the Blue Jays, the Red Sox, and the Yankees — are also in the American League East. But that’s an indication that the competition for good value on the free agent market will be fierce, not that the Orioles can squeeze by with another quiet offseason.

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Complicating matters: the Orioles need to re-sign Chris Davis. There have been some truly outlandish contract predictions for Davis in the past few days, capped by Jon Heyman’s 7-year, $182 million projection that suspiciously coincides with what Davis’s agent, Scott Boras, says he’s looking for in the market — canny negotiating tactic, that — but if the Orioles want Davis back they’re probably going to be paying around $20 million AAV for him. Baltimore’s got a lot of money coming off the books this year, so it is possible to sign Davis and still pick up a pitcher or two — but it wouldn’t be a guy in the Price/Greinke/Cueto/Zimmermann tier. It’d have to be someone who’s not quite a reclamation project, but who didn’t get hit with a qualifying offer and won’t cause sticker shock the way Ubaldo Jimenez has.

Of course, if the market for Davis proves to be what Heyman is predicting — the Mariners just cleared room at 1B by trading Logan Morrison, even though they probably don’t have the financial wherewithal to pick up another monster contract, and the Cardinals, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and perhaps even Astros and Rangers continue to lurk — then the Orioles could go a different direction: sign one of the Big Four pitchers (most likely Cueto, hopefully not Zimmermann) in exchange for their first round pick and then wait to the end of the signing period and see if there’s any QO guys lingering around the market that it makes sense to burn their second or third round picks on. They won’t quite break even with the picks coming in from when Davis, Wieters, and Chen sign — those picks are made at the end of the rounds in which they’re allotted, not near the middle where the Orioles would normally be picking — but it’s more important to build the team as it exists than it is to stock up on prospects Baltimore hasn’t shown it can develop.

The third option is that the Orioles make no big signings this offseason while also not re-signing Davis, and just stand pat with their draft picks while trading for Eduardo Escobar and signing Will Venable and Justin Morneau, for instance. This outcome is more likely than it should be, but won’t be explored here; there’s only so many things to be said about treading water to save money while a team’s window closes.

Recall that while the Orioles technically, at this point, only have $41 million on the books for next year — after spending $118 million on payroll in 2015 — they also need to hand out arbitration raises to Manny Machado, Chris Tillman, Zach Britton, Miguel Gonzalez, and…I’d forgotten they’d picked up Vance Worley. He’ll probably get a raise, too. Ignoring the possibility that the Orioles finalize extensions with some of these guys — Machado, in particular, is a prime candidate for an arb buyout deal that gives the O’s a year or two of free agency — that’s probably some $30 million to $35 million in total arb awards for the team. Davis at $20 million AAV would bring the team up to around $90-95 million, giving Duquette and company $20 million or so to play with for the rest of the roster. This is all back of napkin math, of course, but we’re talking possibilities here, not actually doing the budget ourselves.

The Orioles’ rotation for next year is Jimenez, Tillman, Gonzalez, and Gausman at this point — but Baltimore probably shouldn’t be counting on all four of those guys to be quality options next season. Ideally, they’d sign two guys and force Gonzalez and Gausman (and Worley!!) to pitch for the final slot in camp. Gausman’s been mishandled to be sure, but at this point in his development the Orioles need him to either pitch or make room for someone who can.

So we’ll make the first assumption — the Orioles shell out the biggest contract in franchise history to retain Davis, and then have to make budget signings around that — and look at the pitchers Baltimore might target, knowing that they’re out of the running for the big guys and that they’re not going give up a first round pick to sign a guy like Brett Anderson or Ian Kennedy.

Scott Kazmir (LHP, Age 32, 130 ERA+ 2015, 109 ERA+ 2013-15)

Kazmir’s one of the weirder guys to project on the market given his long layoff from major league play, but he’s been an above-average to good starter in terms of results each of the last three years, and in 2015 he was an excellent starter by results. Still doesn’t seem like a guy you’d be wanting to pay until he’s 37, but the market may not give teams that choice. Assuming a Davis contract, Kazmir’s probably out of the O’s price range — he’ll command something like 4 years, $60m, which is doable but doesn’t leave a lot left for other pieces. A good pitcher who’d benefit from Baltimore’s good team defense behind him (pending position changes in the infield, and the outfield signings). Immediately jumps to the top of the list if Davis signs elsewhere. Otherwise, probably not a great fit.

J.A. Happ (LHP, Age 33, 106 ERA+ 2015, 96 ERA+ 2013-15)

A much more realistic option for Baltimore, sadly. Happ’s a veteran pitcher who came up with the Jays and has bounced around a bit since, and a 3-year, $24 million deal for him would be right up Baltimore’s alley for a back-of-the-rotation arm meant to add some stability to a volatile group of starters. You know what you’re getting with Happ, and it’s perfectly acceptable, though also something you wish you could get for much cheaper from your farm system. Biggest knock on him even with those expectations in mind is he doesn’t throw a lot of innings each year.

Mat Latos (RHP, Age 28, 78 ERA+ 2015, 103 ERA+ 2013-15)

Maybe the most intriguing reclamation project on the market, Latos was a great pitcher up until injuries wrecked his effectiveness over the past two seasons. He’s younger than any of the other guys on this list, and likely amenable to signing a one-year value-building deal to try and bounce back next season, then cash in during the 2016-17 offseason with a long(er) term deal. But even if he is finally healthy — and if he is able to regain the effectiveness that was sapped for him, which he wasn’t able to do in his late-season stint with the Dodgers — there will likely be fairly high demand for his services in the thrift tier of clubs. A less appealing alternative to Latos with the same basic upsides and drawbacks is Doug Fister.

Bartolo Colon (RHP, Age 43, 89 ERA+ 2015, 101 ERA+ 2013-15)

Colon intends to pitch in 2016, and if it’s not for the Mets (where he’s an understandable fan favorite), it wouldn’t be entirely shocking to see him on the Orioles. He’s at the age where a 1-year deal is entirely understandable for both sides, perhaps with a team option for 2017, and his peripherals remain excellent — the man does not walk batters, something Orioles pitchers have had trouble with for almost a decade now. With a far superior defense behind him in Baltimore, Colon could return to the form he had in Oakland in 2013. Or the universe could remember that Colon’s a 43-year-old man with fairly poor conditioning, and have him start pitching like one. Of all these pitchers, he’s the one I’ve gotten to see pitch the most, and the one I like the best. Certainly more than Happ.

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In a perfectly-acceptable universe, the Orioles re-sign Davis, pick up Colon and either Latos or Fister, and bring back Gerardo Parra while attempting to address the outfield situation more fully via trade — it might, in fact, be time to see what the market value of Kevin Gausman is, before all of the shine is completely off of him. It is well past time to see what Baltimore can get for Dylan Bundy, though that’s probably a non-starter as Bundy is once again experiencing elbow problems in the Arizona Fall League.

In reality, well, who can say? The Orioles’ entire offseason plan should hinge on how Davis’s market develops. If they’ve already worked him out of the calculations, then either they’re going to do something really crazy (signing Gordon/Upton + signing Gallardo + signing Murphy; once you’ve burned your first rounder on a QO guy you might as well keep going) or they’re going to stand pat for yet another winter. Having seen the results of that approach played out on the field last season: give me Bartolo Colon any day of the week.