Football season is just kicking off, but many Terrapins fans are already counting down the days until the return of basketball this November.

To help preview what awaits, Baltimore Sports and Life reached out to Reid Forgrave (FOX Sports) for his thoughts on the Terps. Our thanks to him.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Baltimore Sports and Life: The University of Maryland will enter the 2015-16 season with their highest expectations as a program since beating Indiana for the National Title in April, 2002. MD won’t be sneaking up on anyone, and they will have to learn how to play with a target on their back in each game they play. Do you see this as the biggest question / adjustment MD will face this year?

Forgrave: The biggest question for Maryland this season will be how they deal with the hype. There are two reasons why this team could be No. 1 in the preseason AP Poll and should be considered a legitimate Final Four favorite. Reason one is on talent. This is a ridiculously talented team. Diamond Stone is a lottery pick, one of the most talented freshmen in this class. Jake Layman and Melo Trimble are future pros, likely first-rounders. Rasheed Sulaimon might have had his issues at Duke, but he’s a McDonald’s All-American, one of the top offensive upperclassmen in college hoops, and someone who can create or spot up. Robert Carter is a beast. And there’s lots of depth.

The second reason is because Maryland is coming off a season where the Terps far exceeded expectations…and that’s what concerns me. Here’s why: The Terps might have been a four-seed in the NCAA tournament, but advanced statistics didn’t like the Terps nearly that much. KenPom.com, the best college hoops analytics site on the web, ranked them 32nd in the nation last year. That’s because of a statistic KenPom calls “Luck,” where Maryland ranked second in the nation. How do you measure luck? Well, close wins involve some good luck, and close losses involve some bad luck. Last season, Maryland had 28 wins, but an astounding 12 of those wins were by six points or less. Of those, there were six one-possession wins. Of Maryland’s seven losses, only one of them – the Big Ten tournament loss to Michigan State – was by six points or less. When they lost, they generally lost big; when they won, they often squeaked by. Compare that to the underachieving (17-15) Maryland team the season before. That team ranked 328th in luck (out of 351 teams in the nation). We can expect some regression to the mean in Maryland’s luck. That should be one thing – and perhaps the only thing – that might make us temper expectations for this team.

Baltimore Sports and Life: One of the reasons anticipation is so high, is that the Terps have 12 useful players on the roster. While not exactly last year’s Kentucky’s ‘second starting five,’ Maryland has a lot to like with their reserves Brantley, Wiley, Nickens, Cekovsky, Dodd, Bender, and Ram.  Of the first five mentioned, who interests you the most?

Forgrave:  With apologies to Jared Nickens, I’m going to say Damonte Dodd. He has a huge upside: A big, athletic kid who is great around the rim on both offense and defense. It’s important to note that Dodd had by far the highest block percentage for a Maryland team that was decent but not great on defense last year. That will be helped with the addition of Carter and Stone, but expect Dodd to carry an impressive load on defense. Also, on a team that was in many ways built on getting to the free-throw line, Dodd had the second-highest free-throw rate on the team next to Melo Trimble (according to KenPom.com). He’s a player that’s always flown under the radar a bit. He may still fly under the radar in the shadow of Stone and Carter. But he’ll be an important bench presence for this team.

Baltimore Sports and Life: Thoughts on incoming transfer Rasheed Sulaimon? We know he’s athletic, a good defender, a slasher. That he shot over 40% from 3 the last two years. We also know that his attitude was questioned at times at Duke. Did you like the addition all things considered?

Forgrave:  My gut reaction when Sulaimon transferred to Mark Turgeon’s program was this: Watch what you wish for. Look, Sulaimon is a huge talent who is capable of taking over a game. He’s a former McDonald’s All-American, an offensive beast, and someone who is hungry for a second chance. He’s also the only player Coach K has ever kicked out of the Duke program. Best-case scenario is that the attitude is adjusted despite the fact he will be A Guy, not The Guy, for a super-talented Maryland team; he knows his role, he blends in in the locker room, he redeems himself from a rough time at Duke. Worst-case scenario is that he becomes Bryce Dejean-Jones for Iowa State last year: A graduate transfer who continued his malcontent ways, who always had to be The Guy, who had problems off the court and who ultimately tears apart a locker room. He’s either going to be the missing piece on a possible national title team or a guy who rips a possible Final Four team apart. I’m not sure I’d take that risk.

Baltimore Sports and Life: After a year in the system, Georgia Tech transfer Robert Carter becomes eligible and will start at the 4. Carter can run the court, score inside, and help on the boards. Were there any major deficiencies in his game during his time with the Yellow Jackets? How do you view him compared to the best PF’s Nationally?

Forgrave:  First of all, the last time we saw Carter play, it was for a Georgia Tech team that was simply not very good. It’s hard to judge a player based on that. I do know that he was one of the top defensive rebounders in the country in his final season at Georgia Tech, a decent athlete with a big body and a great motor, and an awful three-point shooter. Hope that Carter sticks close to the rim, where he is absolutely dynamite. If he does what Karl-Anthony Towns did last season with Kentucky – focus on becoming a powerful power forward, not a finesse perimeter guy – we could see him playing at the next level.

Baltimore Sports and Life: Teaming with Carter inside is consensus Top 5 recruit Diamond Stone, MD’s highest ranked recruit since Albert King in 1977.  The primary weakness of the 2014-15 Terps was their interior play. With Carter, and Stone; that weakness figures to be a strength.  MD’s pick and roll game should improve, as should the team rebounding, and room for shooters outside. Considering Stone will be adjusting to the College game (and have to share the ball); what are reasonable expectations for his production this year?

Forgrave:  Diamond Stone is a stud, pure and simple. It’s pretty difficult to find a hole in this kid’s game. And yet when you read the scouting reports on him and watch tape on him, there’s one key trait that sticks out: “Unselfish.” For a team that has so many talented veterans, that is the absolute key for bringing in a lottery pick-level prospect. I think Stone’s numbers won’t be through the roof, but expect him to fit in very well with the more established players. This is the signing that could make Mark Turgeon’s career, even more than last season’s slightly-below-the-radar coup with Melo Trimble.

Baltimore Sports and Life: Layman’s FG% increased from 40% to 47% from his Sophomore to Junior year. 3P%, and FT%’s also increased. Rebounding was also up. On the roster this past year, it made sense for him to be used as the PF. Clearly though his best production came with Wells out, and with him playing the 3 (and the offense running more through him). With Carter as the starting PF, Layman will get to reclaim his natural position. Is mental focus / sustaining his confidence the most significant issue of his game?

Forgrave:  It feels to me that, after last season, we can put away the old storyline about Jake Layman being a hot-cold player who is prone to pouting. He played with non-stop confidence last season, especially when Dez Wells was injured. Being back at his natural position will be perfect for him…assuming the three-point shot is falling.

Baltimore Sports and Life: Trimble had the best Freshman season for a Terrapin since Joe Smith, and was the clear catalyst for MD exceeding team expectations this past year. Is he a finished product, or do you see areas where his game can improve further?

Forgrave:  There aren’t many holes I can poke in this kid’s game, either, other than his not-quite-NBA-ready-yet size. OK, I can find one: He turned the ball over more than he should have last season. He should have been a better facilitator. But he was busy averaging 16-plus points per game and was busy making 41 percent from three! You can’t do it all. An absolutely sky-high ceiling for this kid.

Baltimore Sports and Life: In the KenPom ratings, the Terps were 58th in Adjusted Offense, 201st in Adjusted Tempo, and 113th in Points Per Game. Some consistent interior scoring will make MD’s offense that more efficient. Do you expect that the Terps will also increase the pace?

Forgrave:  With the type of depth this team has, it would only make sense to pick up the pace. When the other team is tired, put in this talented and rested reserve corps.

Baltimore Sports and Life: This past year the Big Ten was the 4th rated conference this year in-terms of RPI. Still, 7 teams were sent to the NCAAT, and two reached the Final Four. How do you see the league this coming season? Would you take MD or the field for the conference title?

Forgrave:  Don’t pay too much attention to RPI. It’s a flawed statistic that weighs heavily on a few wins or losses in November or December. Look at the Big Ten last season, and you can’t tell me there was any conference outside the Big 12 that was better top to bottom. (Key here is the phrase “top to bottom” – the ACC was a monster at the top, a weakling at the bottom.) The Big Ten this season looks incredibly solid, but really only has one elite team, and that’s Maryland. (That said, I didn’t think Michigan State had a shot at the Final Four last season, until Michigan State made the Final Four.) This conference strikes me as incredibly deep. Indiana has a chance to be great. Wisconsin, Michigan State and Michigan will be really good. Purdue is my top sleeper in the league. Watch out for Northwestern (that’s not a joke!), and Nebraska is due for a bounce-back year with a great recruiting class. Iowa and Minnesota will be fine. You won’t have too many cupcake games in this conference. 12-6 could win the league. That’s why, if you ask me if I’m taking Maryland or the field, I’m taking the field. I always take the field. Just too many things can go wrong with one team. That said, Maryland is still by far my favorite.

Baltimore Sports and Life: Out of conference, MD faces Illinois State and either Rhode Island / TCU in the Cancun Challenge. The Terps will head to Chapel Hill to face North Carolina in the ACC / Big Ten Challenge, and face UConn in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden. At home, MD will host Georgetown in the Gavitt Games.

Thoughts on the OOC schedule? Best case scenarios for UConn, and Georgetown this year? Early thoughts on the match-up with UNC?

Forgrave:  It’s not a Bill Self trademark doozy of a non-conference schedule, but there are a few pretty good tests in there for Mark Turgeon and his crew. I really like Georgetown this year; with last season’s bumper crop of freshmen getting another year under their belts and D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera coming back for his senior year, Georgetown could win the Big East if Villanova loses a bit of its mojo. UConn will surely bounce back from a disappointing season last year. There’s a ton of talent on that team, especially in the backcourt. Sterling Gibbs could end up as the highest-impact transfer in college hoops this year. And UNC: Watch out. That game might be the biggest and most important game in all of college basketball before conference play starts up after Christmas.

Baltimore Sports and Life: As we get closer to the beginning of the season, how do you view Coach Turgeon’s Terrapins overall?

Forgrave:  Great. All the potential in the world. A team that should win the Big Ten, that could make the Final Four and that might win it all. The biggest question is whether they can deal with the expectations

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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