Terps Basketball Eve: The Season Finally Arrives

Finally University of Maryland Terrapins Men’s Basketball is back!

Not just with the 2015-16 season opener tomorrow night (Friday the 13th, 7PM, on the BTN) against Mount St. Mary’s, but in the broader sense that the Terps have returned to the National conversation.

Maryland begins the year:

#1 in the initial ESPN Power Rankings.
3rd in both the Associated Press, and the USA Today Coaches Polls.

(Discuss this, and join us for the Mt. St. Mary’s Game Thread here.)

Since Maryland’s 10 point loss to West Virginia last March in the NCAA Tournament ended the Terps 2014-15 season, the anticipation and build-up for this new year has steadily grown. Melo Trimble and Jake Layman decided against turning pro. Diamond Stone elected to join the Terps.  Rasheed Sulaimon decided his Senior season would be spent in College Park. After sitting out last year (and consistently impressing in practice), Robert Carter Jr. became eligible. 

Of course expectations are high!

Here at Baltimore Sports and Life (BSL); we’ve been previewing this year for sometime. Some previous works you might have missed:

Terps Basketball: Built for the Ride (Chris Knoche’s season preview)

Random Terps Thoughts as the Season Nears

2015-15 Terps & College Basketball Preview (NBC Sports / College Basketball Talk’s Raphielle Johnson, & CBS Sports’s Matt Norlander on Maryland.)

Talking Terps Basketball with Reid Forgrave, FOX Sports

Breaking Down the Terps’ 2015-16 Forwards and Centers
Breaking Down the Terps’ 2015-16 Guards (The Sporting News’ Mike DeCourcy, and The Baltimore Sun’s Don Markus were interviewed.)

Frankly we’re mostly talked out. It’s time to see this Maryland team play, and see how they grow on a game-to-game, month-to-month basis.

We do have to spend a little bit of time talking about the unfortunate loss of Dion Wiley. Wiley’s torn meniscus will apparently have him out for four months, making him a likely candidate for a Medical Redshirt. I guess the possibility exists that he could return late in Maryland’s season if he progresses health wise, but the current expectation has to be that he won’t be available. 

So what is the impact to the roster?

In Knoche’s season preview, it was stated that Sulaimon is MD’s best on-ball defender. That’s good, because Wiley’s defense on the wing will be missed. It’s also been stated this Fall that Wiley’s offense looked improved. MD has the bodies to overcome the loss of the Sophomore, but they lose that additional depth, and additional answer. MD has good talent, and plus depth. They don’t have overwhelming athleticism, and losing Wiley doesn’t help in that regard either.

The surprise – at-least to me – in the Exhibition last week vs. Southern New Hampshire was the news that Wiley was poised to begin the year as the starting 2G. Apparently that was in-part due to Wiley’s progression as a player, and also the desire from Coach Turgeon to get minutes for Sulaimon as the backup PG to begin the year.

In some ways, Sophomore Jaylen Brantley (Odessa JC) now becomes one of the more interesting players on the roster to watch. Don’t know how much you want to lean on last week’s Exhibition, but Brantley apparently struggled. Even if you discount last week, the fact that Turgeon planned to begin the year with Sulaimon as the backup PG is slightly more telling about what Turgeon has seen from Brantley in practice.

If Brantley can grab hold of the backup PG position, and show to be a productive player in his minutes on the court; that will benefit the roster in multiple ways. One way would be saving Trimble some wear-and-tear during the season. The second way would be that if Brantley is productive as the backup PG, then Sulaimon’s minutes can come mostly from the 2G position (with Nickens backing up both Sulaimon there, and Layman at the 3).

Every scouting report I’ve seen of Brantley says he has a quick first-step, and is capable of being a good creator for others. I agree with what DeCourcy said; that it usually takes JUCOs a year to get really good, if they have really good in them. The Terps don’t need Brantley to be really good in ’15-’16 though. They do need him to be a usable option in the minutes he does get. I think even if he struggles early in the year, Maryland will be well served by regularly getting him on the court, and finding opportunities to learn. Most of his learning will of course come in practice, but seeing him in game experience will only help the evaluation process from Maryland’s Coaches.  I might be fixated on this, because of the struggles Maryland had against the West Virginia press and physicality last March. Here’s to hoping that Brantley earns his way into regular minutes. If that’s not possible, the guard depth is a little thin.*

(*Someone out there is thinking about Varun Ram. Ram did steal some good minutes here and there last year. I’m sure he will be used similarly this year. You don’t want him on the floor for any long stretches, but with his effort and defense, he’s capable of occasionally helping in very limited time.)

Overall though, it should be obvious that if one of the bigger questions going into the year is what Brantley will provide as the 9th or 10th player overall – that things look pretty good.

What We Will Be Looking At Tomorrow Night:

1) Maryland was 295th Nationally last year on the offensive boards. I want to see Carter and Stone do some immediate work on the glass.

2) To be repetitive – hopefully some minutes, and something to build off of from Brantley.

3) Mount St. Mary’s was picked to win the Northeast Conference, and The Mountaineers placed two players (BK Ashe, and Gregory Graves) on the NEC Preseason team.  The Mount is a team with tournament aspirations. Their stars will have a chip on their shoulders, and want to show they are capable of playing against Power 5 competition. I’d like to see Trimble, and Layman take those match-ups personal, and look to stifle them both.

4) Maryland was 256th Nationally in Turnover Margin, and 284th in Steals last year. There were issues with turnovers in the Exhibition last week. A positive margin tomorrow, and generating some steals would be good to see.

5) I’m expecting a 25 point or so win tomorrow night. Take control as quickly as possible. When the reserves enter, see those guys maintain or extend the lead.

Final Thoughts For The Season:

Did you see what Knoche said about Bender? If not, go back and read the comments. The interior play from MD is going to overwhelm teams. Bringing guys like Dodd, and Cekovsky off the bench is a luxury most teams won’t have.

There is going to be single coverage all over the place against MD.  If teams do sag in the post, that’s going to provide a lot of open looks from outside.

Without Wiley around, there is additional minutes available for Nickens. Even with all of the other surrounding talent, I think he’s going to average 10-12ppg off the bench.

Georgetown next Tuesday is going to come quick. The Hoyas open their season Saturday vs. Radford. Maryland has the superior team, and is at home; but Georgetown won’t be a pushover and you can expect them to be motivated.

Looking forward to test in Chapel Hill vs. the Tar Heels on December 1st. It’s a shame that Marcus Paige appears unlikely to play. It’s an opportunity for Maryland to play another elite team, and you learn something about yourself win or lose when you play talent like that.

Based on our own college basketball preview (see above), I think UConn is being underrated a bit Nationally as the season begins. That game comes one week after UNC in the Jimmy V Classic in New York. Another good opportunity for MD to test themselves and possibly improve their Out-of-Conference resume.

Maryland enters the year as the Big Ten favorite, but the league looks like the 2nd best Nationally right now. Indiana, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State all have reasons (to varying degrees) for excitement of their own as their respective seasons begin. Going into the second year in the league, it feels interesting to me as a fan. You have a better understanding of the league. Everything is not an unknown. That works both ways. Maryland was motivated last year to perform in their new conference. They wanted to show they belonged. With a 2nd place finish, and 14 regular season conference wins, MD did just that. Between that, and the headlines Maryland has received all Summer and Fall, MD isn’t sneaking up on anyone this year. The Terrapins are going to get the best shot from every team they play.

Are they ready for that? Ready to be the hunted?

My hope is Maryland maintains the purpose they played with last year. Teams will becoming after them, but they should feel like they still have a point to prove.

Go after the Big Ten Regular Season Title.
Go after the Big Ten Tournament Title.
Go after a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, knowing that their resume begins with the OOC schedule.

If they maintain that mentality, there is going to be an opportunity to hang a number of banners this year.

Some questions remain.

How well does Layman play in his Senior year, back at the SF position?

Sulaimon has fit in well so far with his new team, with both Nickens and Wiley pointing to him having provided leadership and instruction. Beyond that, Sulaimon was apparently willing to come off the bench, which to me is a great sign of where his head is at. Still, it’s fair to ask if the Senior – who has pro aspirations – will buy into team ball all year.

Carter and Stone are going to greatly improve MD’s biggest weakness from last year (their inside play). They are going to be good. The question is just how good they will be.

With Trimble, it’s a question of what can he do in the encore? All eyes are on him. There is nobody that believes he will be back in College Park for his Junior season. It’s about making the most of this Sophomore year, and knowing his legacy is going to be defined by banners and not numbers.

Turgeon is beginning his 5th year as the Maryland Head Coach. He’s the defending Big Ten Coach of the Year. (Previously he was Coach of the Year twice in the Big 12, and once in the Missouri Valley Conference.) He’s built a very talented team, and deserves credit for that. How well does he develop this team as the year goes on? When they get to the Tournament, and the quality of their opponents increases round-by-round; can he be part of the difference?

Like everyone else, I like this team. How can you not? At a minimum, I’ll be disappointed if MD does not win either the Big Ten Regular Season Title or Conference Tournament, and reach the Sweet 16 in the National Tournament. I think those should be the minimum expectations with this roster.

We’ve been building for months to the opener tomorrow night. Tomorrow night we get to start watching the Terrapins build towards a deep March run.

Welcome back Terps!

Fear The Turtle!