Maryland Terrapins V. Virginia Cavaliers Preview

(Discuss on the BSL Forums here)

The Maryland Terrapins basketball team has their toughest matchup of the year tonight, this time against a familiar foe: the #7 Virginia Cavaliers. It’s entirely advisable that you go to the game given the reasonable hour, but should you be unable to attend, it’s at 9:15 PM on ESPN2 (and ESPN3) for couch viewing purposes.

Sitting on the opposite side of the aisle in the Big Ten – ACC Challenge this time, the Terrapins are going to have their hands full should they wish to fill the ACC with regret and the Big Ten with fear. The Cavaliers, at 7-0 and fresh off a deep tournament run last year, look just as good if not better than last year’s model. Their stingy defense should prove a tough game for Maryland, who have lost five of their last six to the Cavaliers. But Coach Turgeon and the Terps have the most recent win; they defeated Virginia 75-69 in the final ACC game at Comcast.

Considering how many games between these two teams go into overtime, we’re in for a great match. So let’s dig in.

Offense

Edge: Maryland

In spite of the fact that Maryland has lost one of their best scorers in Dez Wells, the Terrapins will still likely have a bit more firepower than Virginia. Five of Maryland’s top six scorers shoot 44% or better from the field, and the Cavaliers simply don’t have a scorer capable of doing the things that Melo Trimble has already been doing. The Terrapins ability to score points is legion, and they can do it in a myriad of ways.

Trimble is connecting on 48% of his three point attempts, and with Jake Layman at 44% himself, the Terps can spread a defense pretty well at both the point and wing positions. It doesn’t end there, though, because Maryland usually boasts four guys capable of hurting you from deep on the court at all times.

Plus, what they lack in interior size, they make up for in ability to get to the free throw line. Both Trimble and Layman have been fantastic at drawing fouls this year by attacking the basket and initiating contact, while Dion Wiley looked great at it as well in his lone start.

The Cavaliers have a slower offense that works better in half court sets than anything else, but they are effective. If tempo is adjusted, this team hums at a similar efficiency to the Terrapins, contrary to popular belief. London Perrantes is a fantastic young point guard and what he lacks in scoring prowess he makes up for in facilitation.

Justin Anderson is a full-time starter now, and has been scoring at a very efficient rate; he’s hitting 59% of his shots from deep, and 54% overall from the floor. At 15 PPG, Anderson has the potential to make Maryland fans dislike him even more with his blend of inside-outside game.

Anthony Gill presents an athletic big who draws contact down low, and while he isn’t a killer in the post, he is great at putbacks following offensive rebounds. Malcolm Brogdon is of course their athletic guard who can also facilitate, and he’s done a great job of it so far this year. Brogdon leads all Cavaliers in assists at 20, and he’s not losing the ball too often (only nine turnovers).

Defense

Edge: Virginia

While the Terrapins haven’t been terrible on the defensive end, Virginia is in a class of their own right now. No opponent has shot better than 40% against them this season, and most offenses they face peter out in the mid-30’s. Every player they put on the court is a willing defender that excels at team defense. Playing man-to-man and being able to adeptly cover everyone is difficult, but that’s what the Cavs do.

Darion Atkins is a fantastic rim defender despite being 6’8″, and Mike Tobey is a solid rebounder on the defensive glass so the team doesn’t give you second-chance points. Justin Anderson and Malcolm Brodgon create problems for most guard and wing scorers, as they both are athletic enough to stay in front of you and force the ball out of your hands.

Maryland has been playing good team defense so far, but individually they are still young. The sum may be greater than the parts, but Virginia’s offense is designed to exploit that fact. In the post, Michal Cekovsky and Damonte Dodd aren’t superb man-to-man or help defenders, and occasionally get caught out of position. Meanwhile, Melo Trimble is a solid point guard but has a harder time staying in front of very quick guards. Ibid Dion Wiley.

Jake Layman should be a solid matchup problem for Justin Anderson should Coach Turgeon stick them on one another, but in terms of matchups, Virginia is a tough one.

X Factor

Edge: Maryland

If there’s one thing the Terrapins have that Virginia does not, it’s an elite scorer at the point like Melo Trimble. Maryland has a major edge in the backcourt because London Perrantes will likely not be able to contain Trimble, much like he was unable to do against Seth Allen last year. Allen averaged about 18 points per game against the Cavaliers, and beat Perrantes off the dribble and from deep.

Consider that Trimble may already be a better player than Allen was in College Park, and you get the idea. He’s going to create a problem for Perrantes, who often backs off quicker guards in order to compensate for a lack of lateral speed. There’s a good chance Malcolm Brodgon ends up defending Trimble, but if that’s the case, Dion Wiley or Jared Nickens will prove equally capable scorers. Worst case scenario, Maryland runs a play to switch off defenders and the issue is still there.

Trimble can get the Terps out and running, and even in half court sets he and Pack have proven themselves capable of maintaining offensive structure and efficiency. The Terrapins are in good shape with Trimble, unless Bennett can figure out how to neutralize him.

Prediction

Virginia 61, Maryland 59

I think this one could go either way, but Virginia happens to have a superior defense to Maryland’s offense. The margin of victory will be slim, though, because I’m not sure the Cavaliers can score as well as Maryland. With Dez Wells, Maryland wins this game. Without Dez Wells, the Terrapins will have a tougher time grinding this one out.

If the freshmen (outside of Trimble) step up, this is a moot point because Maryland has the talent to win when they’re all on.