Terps Basketball Q&A with Raphielle Johnson, NBC Sports

Tomorrow night (7PM, ESPN), the #16 ranked University of Maryland Terrapins host the #5 Wisconsin Badgers in a match-up of the Big Ten Conference’s top two teams.

Baltimore Sports and Life has reached out to Raphielle Johnson (NBC Sports / College Basketball Talk) for his thoughts on the Terps.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Baltimore Sports and Life: If you watch MD, it’s easy to see the limitations of the roster – particularly the lack of post scoring, and in recent weeks the perimeter defense. If you look at Scoring Margin, or metrics such as Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, Adjusted Defensive Efficiency; the Terps also have a middling profile. Yet as MD prepares to enter their game Tuesday night vs. Wisconsin – the Terrapins are 22-5 overall, and 10-4 in Big Ten play. They have an RPI just outside the Top 10, a Strength of Schedule in the Top 35 (included in that schedule is a neutral court victory over Iowa State, and a road victory at Oklahoma State). In-general how do you view the Terps?

Johnson: They’re a good team that excels at getting to the foul line, especially Melo Trimble. When you can get to the line as often as they have, while also keeping your opponents from doing the same, some deficiencies can be covered. With Trimble, Dez Wells and Jake Layman, Mark Turgeon has a good group to rely upon, and they’re going to have to be huge against a Wisconsin team that sends teams to the foul line even less that Maryland does.

Baltimore Sports and Life: The Terps will be returning to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since the 2009-10 season. At this point they are playing for seeding. What chances do you give MD of at-least a semi-final run in the Big Ten Tournament, and advancing to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament?

Johnson: I’d expect them to get a double-bye in the Big Ten tournament at this point. Even with Tuesday’s game against Wisconsin, I don’t think it’s unfair to expect Maryland to take care of Rutgers and Nebraska with the Michigan game being the toughest of the three remaining. As for the NCAA tournament, Maryland has the pieces to get to the second weekend but whether or not that occurs will depend on the draw they get. 

Baltimore Sports and Life: Melo Trimble has had an outstanding Freshman season, with an advanced all-around game. His ability to get to the line and convert once there has been huge for the Terps. His steady composure is something which is easy to admire. Where do you have him among Freshman Nationally, and where do you think he can improve the most between now and next year?

Johnson: He’s among the best freshmen in the country. That shouldn’t be up to debate at this point in the season. As for next year, I’d say taking slightly better care of the basketball. His A/T ratio is 1.3 right now, and he’s talented enough to get that closer to 2.0 next season. Part of that will depend on the growth of his teammates, most notably his classmates (Nickens and Wiley) who will be asked to do more with Wells moving on. If they can provide added scoring, Trimble’s assist numbers will rise and that will obviously impact the A/T ratio

Baltimore Sports and Life:  At various times this year, we’ve seen Mock NBA Drafts which have Jake Layman as a 2015 1st round selection. There is a lot to like about the Jr. Good size, plus athleticism. He can shoot from outside (shooting numbers up across the board), his rebounding has also improved, and he can be disruptive at the defensive end. Do you see him as a candidate to leave early, or do you believe he should return to College Park for his Senior season? (He has had time at the 4 this year, next year he would figure to be the starting 3, with Robert Carter starting as the PF – unless MD goes smaller, and uses Carter at the 5.)

Johnson: I think he returns for the reason you stated. At the pro level he’s going to be a 3, so a full season in that spot would undoubtedly help his development from a professional standpoint. And without Wells it gives him even more time in a feature role; I thought he played well when Dez was sidelined with the wrist injury. 

Baltimore Sports and Life:  Dez Wells missed about a Month of the season with a broken wrist.When he returned to the lineup, it seemed as if it was an adjustment for the roster as a whole. His shooting was also off. His play has been on the ascent since the calendar turned to February. Thoughts on the Senior?

Johnson: He’s been the leader this team needed. Of course the wrist injury threw a wrench into his (and the team’s plans), so some hitches from an on-court rhythm standpoint were to be expected. As for the shooting, I’d keep in mind that he shot 50 percent or better in five of the six game before the win over Nebraska on Thursday. His attitude and toughness, not to mention the skill and athleticism, will be incredible assets for Maryland to tap into in March. 

Baltimore Sports and Life:  Until Carter becomes eligible next year (and/or Diamond Stone chooses MD), the primary issue for the Terps is their lack of inside scoring. Damonte Dodd, Michal Cekvosky both have good size and athleticism. Both are shot-blocking presences. Both have offensive games currently limited to put-backs. Cekovsky currently lacks strength. Both have had trouble rebounding on a per minute basis in Big Ten play. Senior Jonathan Graham has moved past Cekovsky in the rotation. Graham plays hard defensively, but lacks the requisite size, and is also not a scoring threat. None of them would turn into Frank Kaminsky if the Terps played at a higher pace, but it feels they would be more useful if MD was looking to run more. Agree, disagree? Do you like the tempo MD plays at? The focus for this trio the remainder of the year has to be defense and rebounding alone, right? Considering how little MD is getting from this group on either end, should the Terps consider going with an extremely small lineup for at-least portions of games?

Johnson: The bigs Maryland currently has available are best used in finishing/put-backs. Running a little more can help with that, but not if it in any way hampers what Trimble/Wells/Layman can do in the half court (Trimble being good in pick and roll situations). Looking at Cekovsky and Dodd, this summer definitely sets up as a big one for both of them. Even with Robert Carter Jr. being eligible, there’s room for them to contribute (and they’ll need to) provided they make strides in their individual games. Skill work and the weight room need to their “best friends,” and if that occurs Maryland will reap the rewards. 

Baltimore Sports and Life:  Jared Nickens and Dion Wiley have had productive Freshman seasons (with Nickens in particular looking like he will become a significant college scorer), though both have recently seemingly hit the proverbial Freshman wall. What have you seen from the duo?

Johnson: I like both as well, with Nickens as of right now taking a higher percentage of his shots from three than Wiley. Both are capable shooters, Maybe not having a game over the weekend will help both from a stamina standpoint, because as you noted their numbers have tailed off in recent games. To this point Wiley has struck me as the one more capable of making things happen off the bounce, but for both that’s an area that is lacking this season due in large part to the fact that Trimble and Wells get the majority of those chances. If one of those two (or both) can make a move forward down the stretch that will benefit Maryland in the Big Ten and NCAA tournaments. 

Baltimore Sports and Life: Richaud Pack and Evan Smotrycz have Senior level experience, and are decent rebounders, especially Pack given his lack of size. Both are also defensive liabilities, who have not shot well this year. Should Coach Turgeon have a quicker hook for this duo the rest of the way?

Johnson: Yes, especially if the defensive issues continue. There tend to be fewer possessions in tournament play, which means less room/tolerance for defensive lapses. Maryland has guys who can put points on the board; what the supporting cast guys need to be sure to do is take care of their responsibilities on defense and go from there. 

Baltimore Sports and Life: The known departures will be Wells, Pack, Smotrycz, Graham, and Ram. The known additions will be Carter, and Jaylen Brantley. Assuming there are no surprise departures, what are your way too early expectations for the 2015-16 Terps?

Johnson: I’d expect them to be a Top 25 team to start next season. While Cekovsky and Dodd will have questions asked of them, the addition of Carter makes Maryland a better team in the post. I expect Nickens and Wiley to be better as sophomores, and with Trimble and Layman leading the way the Terps are going to be good. 

Baltimore Sports and Life: The Badgers will arrive in College Park sporting the Nation’s most efficient offense. As a team, they are very good at limiting opposing foul shots. Kaminsky figures to have his way inside. Do you give the Terps a puncher’s chance at pulling the upset?

Johnson: Definitely. While the Michigan State game was big, the Spartans haven’t played at the “Michigan State” level we’ve grown accustomed to seeing. That makes Tuesday the first “really big” home game for Maryland as a member of the Big Ten, and I expect a raucous environment as a result. And it isn’t as if Maryland is a Rutgers-level underdog either; they’re a skilled basketball team with the players who can make things happen. There should be no doubt that Maryland can win this game.