Thoughts on MD as the Terps prepare to host Michigan State

Last night the Terrapins turned on the jets over the last 8 minutes of regulation to zoom past Rutgers for a home win. With the victory, Maryland improved to 16-2 overall, and 4-1 in Big Ten play. On Saturday, the Terps will host Tom Izzo and Michigan State – a return engagement, following MD’s win in East Lansing on December 30th.

Prior to the Spartans arriving in College Park, let’s take a further look at Maryland and recalibrate expectations for what remains during the remainder of the year.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Barring an unbelievable collapse, Maryland will be part of March Madness for the first time since 2009-10 season when Gary Williams was ACC COY, Greivis Vasquez was ACC POY, and Jordan Williams was a Freshman. That was a strong Terps team who had their season ended in the 2nd Round of the NCAAT by a 3 pointer at the buzzer from Michigan State’s Korie Lucious. That was a tough defeat to swallow, as MD had rallied from a 16 point deficit to take the lead, and the bracket was set-up well for the Terps had they won that game. They did not win though, and history was changed. Without digressing further, the overall point is that it has been awhile since the University of Maryland had a team of this caliber.

The Terps getting back to being part of March was always going to be step one for this program. Step two is being a factor when you get into the Dance. With the neutral court win vs. Iowa State, the road win at Oklahoma State, and with the wins MD figures to accumulate in Big Ten play; what MD is playing for now is seeding. The rest of the way it is about trying to improve the seeding, and be peaking as a team when the brackets are released.

Therein lies the current rub or discussion point for the Terps. Wins are still being accumulated, but MD has not played that well in recent weeks. You take wins anyway you can get them, but the play on the floor has to improve. Big picture wise, the Terps are in great shapes. Being able to nit-pick at things is a good thing.  Meaning it is easier to concentrate on repainting the living room, when the ceiling is not collapsing in on you. 

Let’s start with what we like.

With limited scoring from their post-players, MD’s offense is very dependent on getting to the foul line. Going into last night, the Terps were in the Top 5 Nationally in FT attempts. One of the primary reasons MD got past the Scarlett Knights was the work the Terps did at the charity stripe (20 of 26). Melo Trimble, Jake Layman, and Dez Wells are excellent at getting to the line. Trimble is excellent (88%) at converting once there. Layman (73%) and Wells (77%) are solid once there – though I feel Layman could be better, and Wells has regressed slightly from his 82% level of last year.

Maryland is not an elite rebounding team (68th Nationally in rebounding margin), but the effort on the boards is pretty consistent. They beat the Cyclones on the boards 39-38. They won that battle vs. Oklahoma State 38-32. They dominated the Spartans 52-36.

The Terps have 10 players averaging over 12 minutes per game. 8 players averaging over 17. There is good depth, and despite the limitations inside – they have a lineup which is pretty versatile.

On last night’s Big Ten Network’s telecast, the announcers stated that MD was not a good 3 point shooting team. I guess that is a fair critique if you are looking at their 3pt FG% (107th Nationally, 36%) – but I don’t think that tells the whole story. With Trimble, Layman, Wells, Jared Nickens, Richaud Pack, Dion Wiley, and Evan Smotrycz; Maryland has capable shooters. MD faces a lot of zone defense. When they move the ball well, and concentrate on making the extra pass – they get good looks.

Damonte Dodd has given MD exactly what they needed him to do this year. He has provided a presence which can help defend the rim (1.6 blocks per game), athletically run the court, do some work on the boards, and score on put backs.

Similarly to the rebounding, Maryland is not an elite defensive team (64th Nationally in Scoring Defense), but aside from the Illinois game; the Terps have shown regular effort on that end. In Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (Points allowed per 100 possessions), MD is 19th Nationally.

Trimble, Wells, and Layman is a strong trio. Each have All-Conference abilities. On nights where 2 of the 3 are really ‘on’, MD will be a tough foe vs. anyone.

Now, let’s pick those nits and talk about things which need to improve.

Entering last night, the Terps were 246th Nationally (-0.9 per game) in Turnover Margin, and 146th (12.6) in Turnovers Per Game. I don’t look at this MD team as overly careless with the ball, but tightening up things further here will only help.

The Scoring Offense is 67th Nationally at 72.8 ppg. Since December 10th, MD has gone 9 consecutive games scoring 73 points or less. 5 times they failed to break 70 points. In Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (Points scored per 100 possessions), MD is 41st Nationally.

Maryland could increase their Scoring, if they increased their Tempo. Right now, MD is currently 154th Nationally in Adjusted Tempo (Possessions per 40 Minutes). With a team built around their guards and wings; I’d like to see MD gamble more on defense. Increase the pressure and trapping – and look to create more turnovers, allowing MD to score more in transition.

As we said above, Trimble, Wells, and Layman are each significant talents; but even more is needed from them. Trimble is averaging 33 minutes per game. It’s a significant load for any player – let alone a Freshman. In Conference play, Trimble’s shooting % has decreased significantly. With Wells injured, Layman was playing at a very high level. That included a 21 point, 11 board outing vs. the Cowboys in Stillwater. Since Wells has returned, Layman has looked less comfortable. In the first 4 games with Wells back, Layman had 3 games with 7 shots or less. In the last 2 games, Layman is just 5 of 23 overall from the floor, including 2 of 10 from 3. With Wells and Layman on the court together, I see Layman more willing to defer, and stand out on the perimeter. Jake is a capable shooter, but he’s a better player when he is using his athleticism and attacking the basket.

Wells has never had more FG attempts per game in his career, or shot a lower percentage. Compared to last year, Wells is averaging 2 more attempts per game, and making 42% of his shots vs. the 48% he made last year. That’s with him shooting more from outside (2.0 attempts per game vs. 1.8, and making 50% of his 3 attempts vs. just 30% last year). Part of the reduced in overall shooting percentage can be explained by the missed time. He was put back into action after missing a month, and the FG% has suffered as he has worked back into game shape. I’d rather see him looking for his offense and struggle, vs. the games at Illinois and Purdue where the shots were not going up. He can be accused of playing ‘hero ball’ at times, but I think MD is a better team when he lowers his shoulder, and attacks. He is often too athletic, and too strong for defenders to deal with. That’s when he gets to the line. Also, when he is attacking and defenses are collapsing against him – that’s when he starts being able to create for others.

We didn’t talk about it above, but I liked the insertion of Nickens into the starting lineup. He has the mentality of a big-time scorer and I think is going to put up a lot of points during his time at College Park. Hopefully we see a bit more dribble drive, and also some post-up from him during the remainder of the year. As he improves inside, he is going to be that much more difficult to contain.

The negative about Nickens starting is that the bench loses a bit of their fire power. Pack has provided some nice Senior leadership (and good rebounding as a 6’3 guard), but his scoring with MD has primarily been layups and FT’s. He shot 38% from 3 (on 4.7 attempts) for NCAT last year, but is making just 32% from 3 (on 2.8 attempts) for MD. Might we see him become more comfortable as a 6 man, or is the jump in the caliber of defenses he is facing this year going to limit his shooting all year? Of course the bench also still has Wiley, who before being held to 1 point last night, had averaged 8ppg in his 3 previous Big Ten games. Like with Nickens, I’m a big fan of Wiley’s future with the Terps.

Above we had referred to Smotrycz as a capable 3 point shooter. This year, he has started off cold from outside (just 22%, 5 of 23). Still, he made 37% of his attempts last year, and 43% in ’11-’12 for Michigan. The shooting should improve. What will not improve is his defense. He can occasionally put up good rebounding nights, and is not a bad passer; but he is often abused at will trying to defend. You can not ask Smotrycz to move better laterally, or jump higher. This is who he is. It is on Coach Turgeon to figure out how to best use him, and when he can and cannot have the Senior on the court.

I think any Maryland fan should be pleased by what Dodd has provided this year, but that doesn’t mean it’s ideal. Even with just asking him to focus on defense, rebounding, and put-backs – he has to do those thinks consistently the rest of the way. After his 9 point, 12 rebound outing vs. Minnesota, the last 3 games have been a real struggle (5 points, 12 boards in the 3 combined games). Against Purdue, he picked up those quick 2 fouls, and that really put MD in a difficult position. He’s still only averaging 17.1 minutes per game. MD needs him on the court.

It feels to me that some MD fans are unnecessarily down on Michal Cekovsky. Like the other Freshman, his future is bright. The immediate is a concern though. Get back to the basics. He’s averaging 0.9 blocks in 14.8 minutes per. That’s impressive. You want to see him focus on continuing to alter shots, and be a defensive presence. The next thing he needs to concentrate on now is rebounding. In the 5 league games, he has 3 total rebounds in 41 minutes. That’s just not acceptable. For a guy with good shooting touch, his 4 of 15 showing so far at the foul line seems like an aberration. Let’s see that number change as well.

What remains?

As stated, MD faces Michigan State at home Saturday. The Spartans might be down this year, but it’s foolish to count out an Izzo led team. Since losing to MD, MSU has won 3 straight in league play. Izzo and the Spartans will be looking for revenge. You can believe that they were embarrassed by the work MD did on the glass against them. Look for a better effort on their part in that regard. Winning in East Lansing was a statement. Defending the home floor would be another.

1/17 vs. Michigan State
1/22 @ Indiana
1/25 vs. Northwestern
1/29 @ Ohio State
2/4 vs. Penn State
2/8 @ Iowa
2/11 vs. Indiana
2/14 @ Penn State
2/19 vs. Nebraska
2/24 vs. Wisconsin
2/28 vs. Michigan
3/3 @ Rutgers
3/8 @ Nebraska

Looking at that schedule, what’s possible? Currently 16-2 overall, 4-1 in the Big Ten – is it too much to think MD could be looking at 25 total wins (including a 13-5 league record) prior to the Big Ten Tournament? The loss at Illinois (with their best player injured) gives me some slight trepidation, but that record looks extremely obtainable.

If MD achieves that, they are looking at at Top 4 NCAAT seed, with a legitimate chance of reaching the Sweet 16 for the first time as a programs since 2003.

If you are a Terps fan, there is a lot to look forward to as the rest of this season progresses. This is not a team without flaws, but it is an enjoyable team to watch. Some of the issues facing the roster are not going to be correctable. What you have to really like about this group though, is that they are already collectively achieving at a high level, and there is reason to think further improvement is possible.