Wisconsin Looming

After last night’s 69-65 victory over Nebraska, the University of Maryland Terrapins have improved to 22-5 overall, and 10-4 in Big Ten play.

On Tuesday, the Nation’s 5th ranked team (and the Big Ten Conference leader) Wisconsin will arrive at the Xfinity Center (7PM, ESPN). The Badgers (currently 24-2 overall, 12-1 in Conference play) will host Minnesota tomorrow before turning their attention to the Terps.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

With MD being 3 losses behind Wisconsin with 4 regular season games to play, even a Terps win does not figure to deter the Badgers from the Big Ten’s regular season championship.  While conference supremacy might not be on the line – this game is important to MD as a current measuring stick. The Terps are sporting a gaudy overall record, but it is no secret that the limitations of this Maryland roster have shown through since the calendar turned to 2015. Last night providing the latest example of Terps fans enjoying another MD victory, while knowing a better opponent might have exposed them.

The roster is the roster though.  Dodd / Graham / Cekovsky are not going to start providing consistent post scoring.  The Terps can live with that, but it’s hard to imagine beating a high-quality team like the Badgers if this group does not do their share of work on the boards. Last night that aforementioned trio combined for just 3 points (1 of 3 on FA attempts) and 3 boards in 27 combined minutes of play. Wisconsin’s National Player of the Year Candidate Frank Kaminsky figures to be licking his chops in anticipation.

A strength earlier this year, MD’s perimeter defense has been burned repeatedly in recent weeks. We’ve seen lots of switching by Terps defenders, and too many open looks for MD opponents. As with the rebounding, improvement here is necessary if the Terps are going to do any damage in the Big Ten Tournament, and have aspirations of surviving the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

Some Stats to Note:

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency
Maryland – 108.4 (59th Nationally)
Wisconsin – 124.2  (1st Nationally)

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency
Maryland – 95.4  (59th Nationally)
Wisconsin – 95.3 (56th Nationally)

Adjusted Tempo
Maryland  – 65.5  (149th Nationally)
Wisconsin – 59.7  (342nd Nationally)

RealTimeRPI
Maryland – 11th
Wisconsin – 6th

Strength of Schedule
Maryland – 33rd
Wisconsin – 23rd

Free Throw Attempts Allowed Per Game
Maryland – 15.3 (19th Nationally)
Wisconsin – 12.0 (1st Nationally)

Free Throw Attempts Per Game
Maryland – 23.8 (30th Nationally)
Wisconsin – 20.5 (152nd Nationally)

Rebounding
Maryland – 35.1 (147th Nationally)
Wisconsin – 34.1 (195th Nationally)

Points Per Game
Maryland – 70.8 (72nd Nationally)
Wisconsin – 72.7 (45th Nationally)

Opponent Points Per Game
Maryland – 64.3 (112th Nationally)
Wisconsin – 55.5 (7th Nationally)

Avg. Scoring Margin
Maryland – 6.5 (60th Nationally)
Wisconsin – 17.2 (3rd Nationally)

Best Wins for Wisconsin: Georgetown, Oklahoma, Green Bay, Boise State, @California, Buffalo, Penn State, Purdue, Iowa, Michigan @Iowa, Indiana, Illinois, @Penn State

Losses: Duke, @Rutgers

Not much of a blue print for MD to take from Wisconsin’s two losses. Duke had a post presence in Okafor to match Kaminsky, and the Blue Devils shot 65% from the floor overall. In the Rutgers game, the Scarlett Knights also shot well (54%), but Kaminsky missed the game due to a concussion, and Guard Traevon Jackson missed the 2nd half with a leg injury.

On Wednesday (the 18th), Wisconsin won at Penn State 55-47. Maryland had the 76-73 victory at Penn State on Valentine’s Day. Being that it was a common opponent in the same location, within days of each other – are there any takeaways between the two games?

Vs. Wisconsin, PSU shot 38.9% (21 of 54) from the floor.
Vs. Maryland, PSU shot 41.7% (25 of 60) from the floor.

Vs. Wisconsin, PSU had 3 FT attempts.
Vs. Maryland, PSU had 19 FT attempts.

The Badgers had 15 FT attempts at PSU.
The Terrapins had 26 FT attempts at PSU.

Probably dangerous to read too much into those games, as the transitive relationship matters little. However, these numbers match what has been shown by these teams over the sample of the entire year. Wisconsin is not only the more efficient offense, but the stronger defense. The Badgers have done an exceptional job all year of keeping teams off the line. Maryland’s ability to get to the line has been one of the things they do best. That will be strength vs. strength Tuesday night. 

Badgers to Know:
Kaminsky – 7’0 234lbs, Senior Forward, 17.5 ppg, 8.4 boards, 2.4 assists, 1.6 blocks, 54% FG%, 40% from 3

Sam Dekker – 6’9 220lbs, Junior Forward, 13.4 ppg, 5.2 boards, 53% FG%, 34% from 3, 68% from the FT line

Nigel Hayes – 6’7 250lbs, Sophomore Forward, 12.3 ppg, 6.5 boards

Jackson – 6’2 208lbs, Senior Guard, 9.4 ppg, 2.9 assists, 29% from 3, 85% from the FT line

Final Thoughts:

The season numbers give every indication that Wisconsin should win, but I like Maryland’s chances to get the upset W. Mainly because it is a one game scenario, Xfinity will be rocking, and the Terps will get to play with pretty much nothing to lose.

With the Terps clearly going dancing for the first time since 2009-10, Maryland has already accomplished some nice things this year. This game represents an opportunity to put another stamp on a quality season. Another opportunity to remind the Big Ten, and the country overall that the Terps are back as a program that matters, and will be a regular factor going forward.

From January 22nd through February 8th – the Terps alternated wins and losses during that 6 game stretch. Since then, MD has put 3 successive wins on the board.

Over the course of an entire year, Wisconsin has rightfully shown to be the better team. They have built off of their Final Four appearance last year, and have a legitimate chance to be the last team standing this March. In a one game situation at home, I think MD gets the win.

The Terps are playing for NCAA Tournament seeing at this point. They go into this game in the enviable position that a win will only help, and a loss will have minimal / zero impact. Should the Terrapins get the W Tuesday, avoid losing at Rutgers March 3rd, and advance to the Semi-Finals of the Big Ten Tournament; it’s not unreasonable to think the Terps could be a 3 seed in the NCAAs. We’ve actually seen projections this week that already have MD at that level.

These next few days, I would imagine Coach Turgeon will be stressing improvement on the boards and the perimeter. Clearly there would be plenty of scouting of the Badgers directly. The other tape MD should look at in my opinion is the December home loss to Virginia, as the Cavaliers play a similar style to Wisconsin. Beyond being different teams, there are two primary differences to note from that game vs. what we will see Tuesday though. The first being that Dez Wells and Smotrycz were injured and not available against the Cavs, and also that MD does not figure to get to the line for the 36 FT attempts they had vs. Virginia. Those differences aside, you would like to think that MD could use that experience against a deliberate tempo to their advantage in this game vs. Wisconsin.

Logically I don’t have a lot of reasons to pick MD. Kaminsky and Dekker are going to get theirs. They have superior talent and overall experience. Ultimately I’m betting on MD riding the home-court emotion, and Terps trio of Wells, Layman, and Trimble doing just enough.