floridastatevmarylandat_tj9s4n_bl

Image Credit: Atlantic Coast Convos

Opponent: #8 Florida State Seminoles (4-0, 2-0 Atlantic Coast Conference)
Game Date/Time: Saturday, October 5, 2013; 12:00 PM ET
Venue: Doak Campbell Stadium (82,300)
TV/Radio Broadcasts: ESPN, Terrapin Sports Radio Network
All-Time Record: 21-2 Florida State

(Discuss this article on the BSL Message Board here.)

Opponent Preview:

For the first time since 2011, the Maryland Terrapins have cracked the Top 25. A 4-0 start has energized the fan-base, and given the team national attention. But all eyes will be on the Terps’ biggest test yet this weekend when they face the #8 team in the country in Tallahassee. Florida State is also off to a 4-0 start, including 2 wins against ACC opponents already. Their offense has been stellar, scoring over 40 points in all 4 of their games. They’ve outscored their opponents by a whopping 205-60. But their biggest test so far this season will be the #25 Terrapins.

The Seminoles are led by freshman QB Jameis Winston, who has a chance to become the next freshman sensation in college football this season. His national attention is already growing, and a win against a Top 25 school would just add to his already impressive resume. Through 4 games, his completion percentage is an amazing 73.6%, and he has passed for over 1,000 yards and 12 touchdowns. Along with those 12 scores comes just 2 interceptions, creating a quarterback rating of 209.5, good for 5th in the FBS. But Winston doesn’t just have a great arm, it’s his mobility that puts him above the rest. He has rushed for 111 yards through FSU’s first 4 games, and has added 2 touchdowns with his legs. The Seminoles don’t need him to run very much, but his mobility is just an added bonus, especially in the pocket.

Florida State’s running game features a three-headed attack of Devonta Freeman, James Wilder Jr., and converted DB Karlos Williams. Freeman has the most touches so far this season, amassing 377 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground. He is also getting an incredible 8.7 yards per carry, which ranks 5th in the FBS. Wilder is receiving the second-most carries on the team, and has racked up 174 yards and 2 scores. Williams is a converted defensive back, and has the most rushing touchdowns on the team with 4. Florida State’s scoring is very balanced, with 12 touchdowns coming through the air and 12 touchdowns coming on the ground.

The Seminoles also have a very talented group of wide receivers. Leading the way is senior Kenny Shaw, who has 370 yards receiving on the year so far, including 2 touchdowns. The man with the most receiving touchdowns for Florida State is junior WR Rashad Greene, who has racked up 5 scores so far this season. James Wilder Jr. is the team’s best receiver out of the backfield, but has only gotten 3 catches for 27 yards so far. A player to watch for is sophomore WR Kelvin Benjamin, who measures in at 6’5″ 234 lbs. Maryland’s two starting cornerbacks are 5’11” and 5’7″, so matching up against Benjamin could be a problem.

Florida State ranks 2nd in the country after Alabama in total defense. As good as their offense is, their defense is better. More specifically, their pass defense is better. The Seminoles rank 4th in the country in pass defense, but are 62nd in the country in rush defense. It’s obvious that if the Terps want to exploit any part of this defense, it’s by running the ball. On paper, this looks like the type of game that could turn into a shootout. It will be up to the two defenses to try to shut down these two explosive offenses on Saturday afternoon in Tallahassee.

Opponent Interview:

This week, I was able to talk with Florida State football writer David Hale. I would like to thank Mr. Hale for his professionalism and insightful responses to our questions.

BSL: Florida State went 12-2 last season and finished off by beating Northern Illinois in the Orange Bowl. This season, they’re 4-0 (2-0 ACC) coming off of a win at Boston College. They haven’t been tested much, but have very convincing wins at Pittsburgh and at home against Nevada. How much has this team improved from last season, and how good are the National Championship hopes this year?

Hale: I’m not sold that, overall, this team is any better than last year — just different. The offense is definitively more explosive behind QB Jameis Winston. Where EJ Manuel tended to manage the offense in a far more patient, deliberate way, Winston is aggressive in every sense. That’s come back to bite him a couple times so far, but I think the fan base is far happier with this approach. The big plays come quickly, and Winston’s got a nice supporting cast of veterans around him. It’s a team that should score a lot, regardless of the opponent.

 

On defense and special teams, however, there remains some real concerns. Jimbo Fisher brought in new defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt this offseason from Alabama. Pruitt had never been a coordinator before, and he’s massively overhauled the defensive scheme — FSU is essentially playing a 3-4 now, but there are myriad looks across the board. It’s been a major undertaking for the players, who are still grappling with learning the intricacies of the scheme. The problems have been most noticeable up front, where teams have been able to run against FSU with far greater success than Mark Stoops’ units of years past. Guys are playing new positions, the fundamentals — tackling in open field, most notably — have been poor, and the consistency just isn’t there yet. It’s worth noting, too, that FSU lost all four of its D-line starters and it’s top LB vs. the run in the NFL draft, and replacing that talent was never going to be easy.

 

There’s potential for the D to get better — maybe a lot better — and then I think the sky is the limit for this FSU team. But for now, it’s very much a work in progress, and Maryland will be by far their biggest challenge of the season.

BSL: When Maryland played Florida State last season, the Terps were starting a linebacker at quarterback. How do you think the Seminoles will match up against an undefeated Terps team coming off of a big win against West Virginia two weeks ago?

Hale: This is a more interesting matchup than I think most anticipated entering the season (though, I’ll pat myself on the back and say that I called Maryland as the surprise team of the year in the ACC). Offensively, the Terps can do a lot — mobile QB, solid running game, NFL-caliber playmaker in Stefon Diggs — and that’s a major concern for FSU.

Last week, the Seminoles knew exactly what was coming against a one-dimensional BC offense, and yet they still struggled to shut down Andre Williams and the power running game. This week, Maryland presents a whole new set of challenges. The only really mobile QB FSU has played so far was against FCS Bethune-Cookman, so that wasn’t much of a test. The athlete most similar to Diggs that FSU has played in the early going is Pitt’s Tyler Boyd, and he looked pretty good against the Noles’ D. On the whole, I think Maryland is a relatively problematic matchup across the board for FSU.

Three problems Maryland will face though: 1.) The BC game was a wake-up call. FSU’s defenders have sort of shrugged off some early struggles leading up to that game, but the way they got bowled over by Williams & Co. can’t be ignored. Maryland has their full attention now. 2.) The FSU offense is potent enough to open up a quick, decisive lead. If the Noles go up big early, how much does that change what Maryland is trying to do? Which leads to… 3.) FSU’s secondary is very good. The best way to combat that is to run the ball, and maintain the threat of C.J. Brown running — forcing a safety to sneak up and spy, perhaps. If it turns into a shootout with Brown trying to find success in the pocket downfield, that’s a big plus for FSU. The Terps need to stay multi-dimensional, and then they’ve got a real chance to score some points in this game.

BSL: Florida State lost its starting quarterback to the Bills this year in E.J. Manuel, but freshman QB Jameis Winston has been spectacular in his first 4 starts. Is Winston really that good, or has he really not been tested as of yet?

Hale: Winston is really that good. He’s a redshirt freshman of course, so there are still a lot of situations he hasn’t faced yet, and Fisher will be the first to tell you that you never know what you’ll get from a player until he’s put into the fire. Having said that, Winston is as prepared a freshman as you’ll ever come across, he’s incredibly competitive and seems to rise to the occasion, and he’s passed every test he’s faced so far.

I’ve covered my share of talented QBs in my time in college football — including former No. 1 overall pick Matthew Stafford — and I think Winston has the best combination of physical skills, football IQ and personality of anyone I’ve come across. He’s going to be a very, very good quarterback — and perhaps a Heisman-caliber guy before it’s all over.

The one area where he’s been a little bit vulnerable so far has been in making his progressions. It’s not that he’s not capable of it, but he’s shown a propensity to try to force the big play on occasions — particularly vs. the blitz — rather than check down to the easier play. That’s actually led to some successful moments for him because he’s got the physical skills to overcome some bad decisions, but against better defenses, those plays are only going to get harder to make. It’s part of his development as a young QB, and there’s no reason to think he won’t continue to progress in that area, too.

BSL: The Terps’ defense has proven the ability to capitalize off of mistakes through their first 4 games of this season. They’re also the 13th best rushing defense in the country. How do you expect Florida State to come out on offense? I know they like to run the ball with Devonta Freeman and James Wilder, so how do you see that matchup going?

Hale: In FSU’s two games against ACC teams, Fisher has called a pass-heavy game. That’s not his usual style, but I think he sees teams gearing up against the run and giving Winston a chance to beat them. That may not continue much longer as Winston’s star continues to rise, but FSU certainly has the ground game to find success, too.

Freeman is off to a strong start — averaging nearly 7 yards per carry — and Wilder and safety-turned-tailback Karlos Williams bring a physical dimension that is tough for defenses to match up with. Moreover, the FSU offensive line is extremely adept at run blocking, and it’s a veteran group with massive size.

So this is the problem Maryland faces on D: FSU can pretty much do it all offensively, and as long as Winston is patient, there’s not likely to be too many mistakes for the Terps to capitalize on.

At the end of the day, I’m not sure we’ve seen either side face a test like they’ll be facing this week, but I’d still give the edge to FSU’s offense here.

BSL: Most people didn’t expect Maryland to be undefeated after 4 weeks of play. Even people surrounding the program didn’t really know what to expect from a much-improved C.J. Brown. How do you see Florida State’s #2 ranked defense trying to stop the read-option of Brown/Ross and the lethal combination of Stefon Diggs and Deon Long?

Hale: I honestly don’t know what’s going to happen here. It’s a wild card because there’s really no precedent. Maryland’s offense, with a healthy and maturing Brown, is completely different from what FSU faced a year ago. Meanwhile, the Noles’ D, with its new scheme and personnel changes, isn’t anything like the unit that shut down the Terps last season. And while Maryland has certainly looked a lot more efficient offensively so far, how do you quantify wins over teams that hardly offered much defensive opposition?

At the end of the day, I think it really comes down to execution for Florida State. The speed, size and athleticism advantage is all on the Noles’ side defensively, and I think they’ve got the personnel that’s more than capable of slowing Brown and blanketing Diggs. But will they execute well? That’s not been something we’ve seen a lot of so far. There have been too many missed assignments, missed tackles and missed opportunities. If that doesn’t improve after last week’s performance against BC, there will be ample opportunities for Maryland to move the football.

Zack’s Keys to the Game:

  • Run, Run, Run – As I mentioned earlier, FSU’s run defense has yet to prove themselves this season. Thus, the Terps must be able to run the ball. They need to be able to spread the ball around from C.J. Brown to Brandon Ross to Albert Reid, and even to Stefon Diggs on the option pitch.
  • Manage the clock – The Terps’ offense needs to be able to keep their defense rested and keep Florida State’s offense off the field. That’s not to say that they should get away from their fast-paced offense, but they need to be able to avoid three-and-outs and sustain drives against the FSU defense.
  • Digg it – Stefon Diggs was effectively shut down against West Virginia last week, and he needs to prove that he can have good games against good secondaries. FSU’s secondary is one of the best in the country, so Diggs has an even bigger challenge ahead of him on Saturday. And, if he can’t get space in the passing game, the Terps must make Diggs a factor in the spread-option game.
  • Pressure Winston – The Terps’ secondary was able to hold their own last week against West Virginia, mainly due to their very successful pass rush. Marcus Whitfield will need to have another big day pressuring the quarterback to take pressure off of the secondary and force mistakes by the redshirt freshman Winston.
  • Play smart – When you go on the road against a Top 10 team, you can’t make stupid mistakes and give the game to your opponent. The Terps have to avoid turnovers at all costs, and simply play smart. The last thing they need is for the Seminoles to jump out to a huge lead and never look back.

 

Zack Kiesel
Zack Kiesel

Terps Analyst

Zack is a financial analyst for a defense contractor in Washington, DC. The Owings Mills native focuses most of his efforts on Maryland Football recruiting and individual coach and player pieces; but also covers Terps Basketball. He has established relationships with Big Ten beat reporters across the conference, which he utilizes in his game previews. Now a Sr. Terps Analyst for BSL, Zack can be reached at: [email protected].

X