Tillman today and the remainder of 2010

Chris Tillman takes the mound for Baltimore today, arriving just in-time to give fans of the Orioles something to watch.

This past January, I gave my expectations for Tillman’s 2010 season:

http://baltimoresportsandlife.blogspot.com/2010/01/chris-tillman-2010-expectations.html

I fully expected him to be part of the rotation out of Spring Training, and projected him pitching 170+ innings at a minimum era of 4.75. I stated I thought he would easily out perform that minimum.

I also said, “Even if I am wrong, 2010 is going to be a very valuable season for the development of Tillman. He has shown an ability to dominate the upper-reaches of the Minor Leagues at a very young age. Similar to the experience he gained by going to, and pitching in New York last September, Tillman needs the experience of a full-season in the Majors. A season where you face the same Major League team 3-4 times, and the scouting reports on you continue to grow. A season where you are forced to make adjustments, and gain further understanding of what will, and will not work at the highest level. That can not be accomplished by him going back to the Minors.”

There have been a number of times on this blog where I have been wrong, and have pointed out my errors. In this case I think I was right.

I’m not expecting Tillman to come-up and really exceed the production you were getting from Hernandez as a starter in 2010. Prior to the season I said that that if both pitchers were allowed to start every 5th day in the bigs in 2010, I would imagine they would end the year with similar numbers. I still believe that. That was never the point. The O’s would have been better with Tillman in the rotation, and Hernandez in the pen to start this year.

Tillman:

2008, Age 20, AA Bowie:
11-4, 3.18 era, 135.2 innings, 115 hits, 154 k’s, 65 walks

2009, Age 21, AAA Norfolk:
8-6, 2.70 era, 96.2 innings, 85 hits, 99 k’s, 26 walks, 5 homers

2009, Age 21, MLB 12 starts
2-5, 5.40 era, 65 innings, 77 hits, 39 k’s, 24 walks, 15 homers

2010, Age 22, AAA Norfolk:
5-4, 3.12 era, 57.2 innings, 55 hits, 47 k’s, 12 walks, 4 homers

Tillman pitched a total of 161.2 innings in 2009. He should be good for about 175-180 total innings in 2010. Subtracting out his 2010 innings at Norfolk, that would mean he should finish this year with about 120 innings in the bigs.

Couple things I’ll be watching to see is if he is able to maintain his velocity and movement during the duration of his starts. That includes the beginning of games, where sometimes his velocity has been dramatically reduced. Also, I note that over the past two years Tillman allowed a total of just 9 homers in 154.1 innings at the AAA level. Does he show an improved ability to keep the ball in the park in the bigs?

As the 2009 season ended, Tillman was doing a better job of mixing-up his pitches and not allowing hitters to sit on any one pitch (goes hand-in-hand with the homers). Will be interesting to see if he is still doing this.

I really like Tillman. The 6’5 right-hander has a nice, simple delivery that he is able to repeat.

Has fast-ball seems to have a natural sink to it, which is going to eat up a lot of bats. He seems to comfortably sit at 92-93, but is able to muscle-up to 95-96 when required. His first Major League strike-out, was 96 running-away on the outside black, perfectly located. If he ever gets that pitch down consistently, good-luck. His change-up is a work in progress, but can be effective. His curve is often described as his best pitch.

I’m looking forward to seeing him today, and the remainder of this year.