Winter is a big time for prospect mavens. The offseason allows time to study the systems and grade out the fruits of the summer’s labor. Most sites do team-by-team breakdowns of every system and then unveil a top 100. Other sites open with top 100 and then go team-by-team. Last week saw two of the more important lists revealed – MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus – and let’s just say it was underwhelming for the O’s.

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The team is currently getting dividends from the late-00s drafts in the form of Zach Britton (’06, 3rd round), Matt Wieters (’07, 1st), Brian Matusz (’08, 1st), Caleb Joseph (’08, 7th), and of course the best of the bunch is Manny Machado (’10, 1st). But the well has severely dried in the five years since and these recent prospect lists underscore the drought. The first round picks since 2011 are: Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman, Hunter Harvey, and DJ Stewart. They didn’t pick until the 3rd round in 2014 because of the Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz signings.

The problem isn’t just the first-rounders, though. I mean, we know the issues with Bundy and Harvey, but Gausman is in the majors and Stewart is five seconds into his career. A big reason that the O’s have so few entrants on these top 100 lists is because of how little has come from the other rounds in recent drafts. Mike Wright (’11, 3rd), Tyler Wilson (’11, 10th), and Christian Walker (’12, 4th) are the only other guys to log MLB time for the O’s in the last five drafts. Again, we’ll give 2015ers a break for obvious reasons, but that’s still just three players outside of the first round in the last four drafts (2011-14). And only five if you count Bundy & Gausman.

Compare that with the rest of the league:

Team 2011 2012 2013 2014 TOTAL
Padres 10 1 1 1 13
Rangers 8 3 1 0 12
Braves 8 2 1 0 11
Yankees 5 4 1 1 11
Red Sox 8 2 0 0 10
Mariners 5 3 1 0 9
Tigers 5 2 2 0 9
Blue Jays 5 1 2 0 8
Cubs 5 0 2 1 8
Giants 5 3 0 0 8
Rockies 4 3 1 0 8
Astros 4 3 0 0 7
Brewers 5 2 0 0 7
Cardinals 2 4 1 0 7
Dodgers 2 5 0 0 7
White Sox 4 2 0 1 7
Angels 3 3 0 0 6
Athletics 2 4 0 0 6
Indians 5 0 1 0 6
Marlins 3 3 0 0 6
Mets 4 1 0 1 6
Orioles 3 2 0 0 5
Diamondbacks 4 1 0 0 5
Phillies 4 0 0 1 5
Nats 4 0 0 0 4
Reds 1 2 1 0 4
Royals 3 0 0 1 4
Rays 1 2 0 0 3
Pirates 3 0 0 0 3
Twins 1 2 0 0 3

This is a rudimentary analysis for sure, but it still highlights the dearth of talent flowing through the Baltimore pipeline right now. A lot of teams don’t have anyone for the 2013 or 2014 seasons, but that’s where a lot today’s prospects are coming from and the O’s just aren’t delivering enough. We can dive more into the “why” at a later date.

Back to those lists I mentioned earlier.

MLB.com’s list features just one Oriole and it is Harvey at 85. Bundy was 64th on last year’s list so while it is understandable to see him miss this year’s list entirely, it was still a little jarring. After all, Harvey was 60th in 2014. If you dock Bundy the same 25 spots, he’d be there at 89. Either way, Bundy’s presence wouldn’t really change much since we already know they are both legitimate prospects when healthy.

Baseball Prospectus had Bundy 8th last year and Harvey 20th so both maintained in the 2016 list, checking in at 69th (nice!) and 58th, respectively. Chance Sisco made their 2015 list at 101, but injuries and regression from his 2014 kept him from making the list again. He played just 95 games in the regular season, but got 16 games in the Arizona Fall League to make up for some of the lost time. Sisco did make the org lists at BP and Baseball America, slotting third on both (MLB hasn’t done their ’16 team lists just yet).

Baltimore is nominally in the midst of a competing window, so it’s understandable for the system to be on the thinner side, but it’s too thin for the team that they have because it’s not like they’re trading good prospects for assets, they just don’t have enough good prospects. Gausman, Machado, and Jonathan Schoop are the only impact-regulars at 25 years old or younger. Worse yet is that if they aren’t able to hang in playoff picture in 2016, they are likely to be in baseball purgatory as they were last year at 81-81.

The 71-81 win range is just the worst. You’re not bad enough to get a great pick and you’re not good enough to legitimately compete. Regardless of where they finish, they need to start producing more talent on the farm or the entire division will pass them by and they will be back to the pre-2012 days.

Paul Sporer
Paul Sporer

Paul Sporer is currently a contributor to FanGraphs / RotoGraphs. He has worked for/still works for Rotowire, Baseball Prospectus, Rotogrinders, The Fantasy Fix, Draft Day, and PaintTheBlack.com – his own website centered around pitching. Additionally, he’s written for several Baseball Prospectus Annuals, contributed to Rotowire’s 2015 magazine, and spoken at a couple of BaseballHQ First Pitch Arizona events. His popular starting pitching guide is available at paulsporer.com.

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