Welcome to Baltimore Dan Duquette!

A little later this morning, Dan Duquette will be announced as the Orioles Executive VP of Baseball Operations.

I had been aware of Duquette’s background with Montreal and Boston prior to his name surfacing here, but have obviously read more about his tenure in both locations in recent days. In what I have read, and with the people I have spoken to, similar themes continue to emerge. Everyone points out Duquette’s intelligence, and his willingness to build organizations correctly through Player Development and Scouting (Amateur, and International). If the O’s now aggressively and systematically pursue improvements in those areas, ultimately there will be better days ahead for this franchise.

Conversely, while everyone lauds Duquette’s acumen and what he accomplished in his prior stops, there are questions about his absence from the game and talk about him being abrasive or hard to deal with.

Tony LaCava was a popular choice among many fans of the Birds for this position. I certainly recognized him to be capable, and would have supported that hire as well. For what ever reason, that hire was not able to be completed. Had LaCava been hired, the Orioles would have announced a 50 year-old first time GM. Instead they are announcing the hire of a 53 year-old, who has sat in the big chair (with success) a couple of times. Whatever went well (or bad) for Duquette with the Expos and Red Sox; Duquette has the advantage of leveraging those prior experiences.

My take is that O’s fans should give Duquette a fair shake and only concern themselves with what happens going forward.

So as Duquette takes his new position in the Warehouse, what is he inheriting?

We know that he takes over a team which has had not had a winning season since 1997. He also takes over a team which has not even won 70+ games since 2006. Yet, it would also be unfair to say he inherits a total reclamation project either. There is enough talent on the Major League roster, that heading into the 2011 season the averaged predicted win total from 19 different analysts was 78. I still think the O’s underachieved this year. While all of the existing core players have plenty of questions, I still believe there is a decent group of players to move forward with.

Please note, while I am arguing there remains a solid group of players to move forward with, I am not arguing that the O’s can compete in the near term without significant external additions. For some, the opinion that the O’s can not compete in the near term without significant external additions crystallizes the path the Orioles should be taking. They see that there is a lack of marquis Free Agent talent available, and know the inherit problems of trying to obtain those players. While it is understood that external talent can also be acquired through trade, the Orioles are not in a position to be dealing from strength. The Orioles have players who would be attractive to other organizations, the questions of course will be just what can they bring back, and can you additionally fill the holes they vacate?

It should be noted though, that while many O’s fans do not believe the team can compete in the near term and that a larger rebuilding should take place; many other O’s fans do not want to hear anything about further rebuilding. They feel there is enough talent here to build around, and the Orioles need to show immediate tangible results in the form of wins and losses. In August, Baltimore Sports and Life spoke with Jason Parks from Baseball Prospectus. Parks gave voice to this position stating, “Can the Orioles win the East in the next two-three seasons with their current roster? Probably not. Can they maintain competitiveness at the major league level while continuing to develop talent from within? Yes. Selling your major league talent now isn’t always a pathway to success down the line. Baltimore needs to make every effort to win in the present without sacrificing the future. Successful teams can do both.”

I see the O’s at a fork in the road. I lean towards believing a deeper rebuilding is necessary and should be the path traveled. However, there is a prevailing belief by many that Orioles Manager Buck Showalter wants to augment around the existing core. I can support heading in either direction, but what I want to see is a complete commitment to which ever road the O’s want to take.

Beyond the Major League team itself, Duquette inherits a Minor League system with some high top-level talent, and and overall lack of depth. Last Winter, Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law both ranked the O’s system in the lower 1/3 of baseball. When we spoke with Baseball America’s Jim Callis last month (http://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=3047), Callis did not anticipate the O’s moving into the middle of the 2012 rankings.

Joe Jordan, who had been the Orioles Director of Amateur Scouting, has left the organization to become the Phillies Player Development Director. An immediate question for Duquette will be, who is he going to get to replace Jordan? One name that interests me is Amiel Sawdaye, who is currently Boston’s Director of Amateur Scouting. Sawdaye is not going to leave the Red Sox for a lateral position, but perhaps the Baltimore native would join the O’s if he was named Asst. General Manager?

It would be fair for someone to point out that the O’s have graduated a fair amount of players to the Majors in the last couple of years, and point to that as reason of why the system currently seems thin. That point has some merit, but really does not tell the whole story.

During 2005-11 period the O’s have had 20 picks during the first 3 rounds of the Draft. In that same period the Yankees have had 21, Tampa 34, Toronto 35, and Boston has had 36. Assuming the structure that has been in-place with the most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement remains, is it now going to be a focus of the O’s to gain (or protect) compensatory draft-picks? Just as importantly, questions remain about the O’s Player Development system and the International Scouting operations.

In an interview with Fox Sport’s Ken Rosenthal (http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/baltimore-orioles-farm-system-lacking-022911), MacPhail was asked about the minimal foreign talent in the system and responded, “Philosophically, I’m not as committed to making the same commitments that we do in the (amateur) draft if it’s just going to be a workout. If you can’t see the guy play in a game, I think that is fraught with peril.”  Does Duquette agree with those comments? Are the signing bonuses for Dominican and Venezuelan talent rising faster than the draft-eligible US born talent? If so, and if the average Dominican and Venezuelan signed player is 16/17 vs. drafted 18/19 year old Americans, is the risk considerably larger with the Latin talent? Beyond the D.R. and Venezuela, what can the O’s accomplish in Australia, South Africa, Europe, China, Taiwan, Korea, and Japan as an organization during Duquette’s initial 3 year contract?

John Stocksill took over Player Development two years ago, replacing his Brother David. During this off-season, J. Stockstill’s contract (which was set to expire 12/31) was extended for 2012.  We also know that J. Stockstill interviewed for the General Manager position.

MASN’s Roch Kubatko has reported several times that Brian Graham, the O’s Coordinator of Minor League Instruction, would likely replace J. Stockstill, if Stockstill was reassigned as expected. Is that reassignment for J. Stockstill going to happen? If so, had Duquette signed off on the promotion of Graham? Danny Knobler from CBS Sports endorsed Graham telling us last week, “ Graham is outstanding at his job. I think any new GM would want him there.”

I appreciate Knobler’s thoughts here, but if J. Stockstill is reassigned, I think Duquette should consider interviewing external candidates (in addition to Graham) for this position. We understand that the candidate pool dwindles everyday, and that there is a need to quickly have the Management staff in-place. I just think that if a Director position becomes available, the organization could be well served with bringing in others that are well regarded elsewhere. Perhaps that new blood would foster an environment with a diversity of thoughts and opinions; and give the O’s overall new ways looking at things. Two candidates I would like to see considered are John Coppolella (Atlanta’s Director of Baseball Operations), and Tyrone Brooks (Pittsburgh’s Director of Player Personnel). Just like Sawdaye would not leave Boston to just become the Scouting Director here, we understand that Coppolella or Brooks would not come to Baltimore for a lateral move. If they were to be named Asst. GM / Director of Player Development; that move may then make sense.

Ultimately, while I have directly suggested Sawdaye, Coppolella, and Brooks; what I am really talking about is adding further brain power to the Baseball Operations team. If there is any concern about Duquette being away from the game, a strong Asst. GM hire (or two) would completely eliminate that ‘issue.’ Beyond that, adding other strong intelligent voices should always be considered a positive option.

Even before his Press Conference this morning, we imagine Duquette has already been extremely busy trying to fill out his staff. If he has not already, he will shortly be having organizational meetings, and preparing for the upcoming General Manager meetings (November 14th -16th in Milwaukee), and Winter Meetings (December 5th-8th in Dallas). His actions will matter more than anything he says today, but I’m still interested to watch. It will be his first opportunity to articulate to the rest of the organization, the media, and a disillusioned fan-base his strategy and vision.

Welcome to Baltimore Mr. Duquette. Congratulations to you on your hire. Here is to a new chapter with the Orioles, and hopefully a new beginning for us all.