In Part 1 of my look at the 2015 Orioles as we enter spring training, I reviewed how I feel the O’s starting rotation will fare this year. In today’s article, I will take a look at the bullpen.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Unlike the rotation, the bullpen is much more in flux. Who makes the team out of spring training and who ends up being brought up to contribute out of this bullpen is up in the air. Since we don’t have a set 7 guys in the pen, I am going to look at the guys who are basically locks to be in the pen and then give a general overview of where I feel our bullpen is right now.

A reliever is arguably the hardest position in sports to predict. A guy can have a dominant 50 innings but have 5 terrible innings and it skews the numbers greatly. So, as I go over the best and worst case scenarios, I am not going to predict an outing where they allow 6 runs in 1/3 of an inning and that makes their ERA 4.00 or something like that. I am going to look at the best/worst case with them just being the pitchers I think they will be and taking out some freakish outing like that.

Zach Britton:

Zach Britton

After a failed experiment where the Orioles saw Tommy Hunter struggle as the team’s closer, they turned to Zach Britton to be their 9th inning guy and he didn’t disappoint at all. He finished 5th in MLB in WPA, some of which did occur before he became a closer. With his dominating sinker, the opposition struggled to get anything in the air vs. Britton(only 23 fly balls allowed all year in 76.1 IP) . His strike out numbers weren’t that high but he was able to miss bats at a very high rate(21.8 swinging str%). He had a 1.65 ERA and allowed a LD% of only 12.9%. His GB/FB ratio was an astounding 6.35:1. His walk rate was better than it had been in his career but it was still borderline too high. His FIP was 3.13 and his xFIP was sub 3.

Best case:

More of the same from last year. I am not sure we can expect a better scenario than the one that played out last year, at least in terms of ERA. If he can get the K rate up and lower the walk rate more, he may end up being a better pitcher even if the ERA is similar or even higher.

Worst case:

Britton allows a lot of balls to be put in play. As we saw with Jim Johnson, if you allow a lot of balls to be put in play, you can put on a lot of base runners in a hurry. Now, Britton misses more bats than Johnson did, so hopefully this won’t be an issue for him but still, it could be a problem. If he allows a lot of hits to find holes and his BB rate stays the same or goes higher, we could be looking at a 3.25-3.75 ERA. That ERA would be ok but as the closer of a team that will likely be in a lot of tight games that could be an issue.

My prediction:

I think Britton will be similar in 2015 as he was in 2014 but I think the ERA will be higher(2.5-2.75 range). He will have a little less luck and that will lead to more runs and base runners allowed. He will still be very good but he isn’t elite IMO.

Darren O’Day:

Darren O'Day

O’Day had another fantastic season in 2014 for the Orioles. He pitched just under 70 innings. His ERA was under 2. His K rate(9.57) was the second highest of his career. His K/BB ratio was just under 4. He was amongst the top 15 relievers in MLB in WPA. He missed bats at a high rate. His swing str%(20.6%) was the highest of his career in 2014. His walk rate was around 2.5.

Best case:

On Aug 30, O’Day had an ERA of under 1. I am not sure you can get much better best case than that. Similar to Britton, his best case is more of the same. K rate stays high, BB rate stays solid and he just continues to be the guy he has always been for the Orioles. His ERA has declined every year since he has been an Oriole. It has gone from 2.28 to 2.18 to 1.70. If he can keep his ERA in that range and his peripherals stay basically where they are, we are probably looking at the best case for ODay. If that happens, we are probably looking at one of the top 10-15 relievers in baseball.

Worst case:

As good as O’Day was last year, the way he ended the season was something to forget. In the last 11.2 IP he threw last year(including postseason), he allowed 12 runs(11 earned), 5 homers(he allowed 3 homers in his first 59ish IP) and walked 4. He got the ball up and his ball was flat. If ODay does that, he gets crushed. O’Day has always dominated righties but lefties do tend to give him some problems, especially with the power. If the way he ended 2014 carries over into 2015, we could be in a lot of trouble at the back end of the pen. A 3.5-4 ERA isn’t out of the question here if that happens.

My prediction:

I expect him to be a little worse in 2015 than he has as an Oriole. I don’t expect the worst case I outlined above but a 2.75-3 ERA isn’t out of the question. Since he has been an Oriole, his FIP has been in the 3-3.5 range and perhaps that catches up to him this season?

Tommy Hunter:

(June 6, 2013 - Source: Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images North America)

(June 6, 2013 – Source: Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images North America)

Hunter had a very up and down season for the 2014 Baltimore Orioles. He started the year as the team’s closer. He only allowed 1 run in April and only blew one save but he gave up 11 base runners in under 8 IP and only struck out 5. May was a disaster. He had a 9.39 ERA in the month of May. In his first 8 outings(6.1 IP), he allowed 8 runs, including 6 in his final 2 outings before losing the closer’s role. He allowed 18 base runners in the month of May in only 7.2 IP. AS he entered the month of June, his ERA was just about 6. However, once the closer’s role was taken from him, he settled down. He didn’t have a month where his ERA was over 3.00 for the month. That also includes his September where he threw 10.1 IP and allowed zero runs. He only pitched twice in the postseason and didn’t allow a run in his 1.2 IP. He allowed only 9 ER in 37.1 IP(including postseason) after losing the closer’s role. That is a 2.17 ERA. His K rate increased and his walk rate was outstanding after losing the closers role. He only walked 7 guys rom June 9 on.(that as after he came off the DL). He walked 2 batters in his last 27 IP, including zero walks in August. He also saw his GB rate go way up. A guy who had always been a FB pitcher, he saw his GB rate go up to a 2:1 ratio. The highest it had been before that was 1.31:1.

Best case:

Best case is he gets the K rate up and continues to get a lot of ground balls. His control and command are very good already so if he can miss more bats, he could be an excellent reliever, as opposed to just an average-ish one.

Worst case:

As someone who doesn’t miss bats, he has to rely on his low walk rate. If that rate rises and he allows fly balls at his normal rate, he could get hit around hard. The LD% vs. him last year was the highest of his career(23.8%) and he had a relatively lucky HR/FB ratio in 2014(8.7%). The idea of him giving up more homers, like every other season of his career, is very likely and that could lead to issues for Hunter.

My prediction:

Tommy Hunter finished with an ERA just under 3 last year. His FIP was 3.15 and xFIP was 3.23, so his ERA was basically where it “should” have been. I expect him to continue to use the 2 seamer more and try to keep the homers down but with that, the K rate won’t see much of a rise. I would expect an ERA in the area of 3.25. He has always had the good control, so I wouldn’t expect that to change much but I would expect to see the homers increase.

Brad Brach:

The 2014 Baltimore Orioles had 2 pleasant surprises. One was Delmon Young. The other was Brad Brach He was acquired from SD before last season and he came in and did a great job for us in 2014. He appeared in 46.1 innings for the Orioles pitched in 62.1 IP. Its nice to be able to go to a guy and him be able to be solid for more than 1 IP. That seems rare in today’s game anymore. He had a decent but not great K rate. He did an excellent job at missing bats despite not having an overwhelming K rate. He had 12 outings where he went 2 or more IP. He allowed 11 runs in 3 outings…he allowed 11 runs in the rest of his outings. So, his ERA(which was 3.18) was victimized by a few bad outings.

Best case:

Before he came to Baltimore, Brach had a K rate over 9 in SD. If he can get his K rate back up to that level and continue to see the walk rate drop, as it did in 2014, Brach could be a 2.50ish ERA reliever. If he is able to be that guy, while pitching multiple innings, that will make him extremely valuable.

Worst case:

Brach has a career 3.50 ERA. He isn’t a big name by any means but he has been a good ML reliever. However, the walk rate is usually high and he is a FB pitcher. His Hr/FB% was lucky last year as well. His xFIP was 4.43 and his FIP was 3.90. Worst case would probably be Brach gives up his share of homers and base runners and ends up being demoted to the minors because he is really struggling.

My prediction:

Brach will be a guy that will be teetering between being demoted and keeping his job. He will do just enough to make us want to keep him but he will always be a guy that will make us wonder if we can do better if we dip down to the minors. I expect an ERA in the area of 3.75. That could be good enough for him to continue to be a MR for us the whole season but again, will we be able to do better with the depth we have accumulated?

Brian Matusz:

AP Photo/Nick Wass

AP Photo/Nick Wass

In what may be the most troubling decision of the offseason, the Orioles not only tendered Matusz a deal but they are going to pay him more than 3M to pitch in 2015. Now, if Matusz has a big year this year, we shouldn’t be surprised. Relievers can look great one year and terrible the next. Matusz is a guy that is usually very good vs. lefties but pretty awful vs. righties. His K rate did increase in 2014 and his walk rate was one of the best in his career. He is a guy you can easily replace for less money. The Orioles did just that by signing Wesley Wright for almost half of what Matusz is going to get. Wright is a LOOGY as well and can be just as good.

Best case:

Matusz continues to see his K rate stay high walk rate stay relatively low and he figures out a way to get righties out. If he is able to do that and he continues to be very good vs. lefties, he could have a break out season.

Worst case:

His worst case would be that lefties hit him a little harder and righties continues to treat him like a tee and the Orioles end up cutting him because they can easily find someone better.

My prediction:

If the Orioles don’t trade him, he will continue to do just enough for Buck to continue to go to him but we never have confidence in him when he is out there. An ERA in the 3.50ish range seems likely again.

As of today, I feel those 5 are basically locks given the salaries and what they accomplished in 2014.

The Orioles have a lot of depth in the bullpen. We have a guy like McFarland, who likely starts the year in AAA as a starter. They added Logan Verrett and Jason Garcia in the rule 5. Garcia is an intriguing power arm that hasn’t pitched above single A but he will get a look in ST and has a chance to make the team. They also acquired Daniel Rodriguez from the Braves, who is another lefty reliever.

As I mentioned, they gave Wesley Wright a guaranteed 1.7M as well. That may mean he is a lock for the pen as well but I am not willing to put him in that spot yet.

Last week, I discussed the rotation. Unless they want to put Gausman in AAA(which makes no sense), one of the 6 starters will have to go into the pen and that could be important. IMO, the bullpen could be an issue in 2015. Yes, I am predicting decent ERAs for them but this pen is going to be counted on to work a lot of innings and hold tight leads. With the way the Orioles are built, they will likely again be in a lot of 1-2 run games and if the back end of the pen is worse than it has been(as I predict), that could be a problem. One of these starters could be a difference maker out there.

The best reliever the Orioles had last year, Andrew Miller, is now gone. The FIP and xFIP of our pen was around 3.50 and with him out of the equation, that number is likely higher. This team has the depth and talent in the bullpen where we could have another very good pen again. It wouldn’t surprise me but I am not counting on it. Now, when I say that, I am expecting our bullpen to be solid but not quite lights out as it has been in the recent past. Can this team survive a bullpen that isn’t lights out? I am not sure about that.

BSL’s newest Orioles analyst, Jeremy Strain, looked at our top 10 prospects as we enter the 2015 season. In that list, he discussed many of the arms we could and should see competing for a bullpen spot in 2015. The most intriguing name not he list is Michael Wright IMO. He has a power arm and profiles best a reliever. I am hoping to see him get a real shot to make this pen at some point this season.

For me, the Orioles are spending too much money on the bullpen especially when you consider that some of the guys we are paying multi millions to aren’t all that special. They are good and have some upside but they wouldn’t be difficult to replace for a fraction of the cost either. The Orioles have drafted a lot of college arms lately, arms likely destined for the bullpen. Hopefully those arms develop so that this team can stop spending so much money on middle relievers.

As we discussed with the starters, the defense of the Orioles will be a huge help to this bullpen. Will it be enough to have this bullpen continue to be one of the elite pens in all of baseball? Orioles fans have to hope that the defense combined with Buck’s ability to manage a pen will outweigh some of the issues these guys have.

Rob Shields
Rob Shields

Rob has interviewed guests from outlets such as ESPN, Sports Illustrated, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, FOX Sports, Baseball Prospectus, Athlon, Sporting News, MLB Network, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Info Solutions, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post, Sports on Earth, Grantland, NFL Network, FanGraphs, Football Outsiders, ProFootballFocus, etc. etc. The Baltimore native lives in Perry Hall with his Wife Lindsay, and two young sons. He has appeared as a guest on 105.7 The Fan, Q1370, and WNST 1570. Co-Host of The Warehouse: https://anchor.fm/the-warehouse Co-Host of Sports Tonight: https://anchor.fm/sports-tonight

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