Tomorrow night is Game 1 of the 2016 World Series. The Chicago Cubs will travel to the Cleveland Indians in what could be an epic WS with immense historical implications. One team is going to end a very long streak of not titles. The Cubs haven’t won a WS since 1908 and this is the first time in over 70 years that they are even in the World Series. The Indians haven’t won a WS since 1948. Each franchise has just two titles.

(You can discuss the 2016 World Series on the BSL Board here.)

The Cubs have been the best team in baseball for the whole year. The pitching staff had MLB’s best ERA this year and it wasn’t close. The Cubs’ team ERA was 3.15. The next team, the Nationals, were at 3.52. The Cubs starters’ ERA was 2.96. The next closest was 3.60. The Cubs’ BP ERA was 8th in all of baseball but it was second in the second half. That isn’t surprising since they added Aroldis Chapman and Mike Montgomery to an already solid pen. The Cubs staff was 3rd in K rate, 15th in BB rate, 6th in HR rate, 5th in GB% and 8th in K/BB ratio.

Offensively, the Cubs scored the 3rd most runs in baseball this year. They were 2nd in OBP, 10th in slugging, 3rd in wOBA, 3rd in wRC+ and first in WAR. The offense was led by likely NL MVP Kris Bryant. He had a WAR of 8.4, which was second best in all of MLB, trailing only Mike Trout. The Cubs also had Rizzo, Fowler, Zobrist and Russell, all of who had a fWAR of 3.9 or better.

According to UZR and UZR/150, the Cubs were also easily the best defensive team in baseball. They also had the best defensive efficiency in baseball, according to Baseball Prospectus. When you combine the hitting, the pitching and the defense, the Cubs had a +252 run differential. They won 103 games. Only the Cardinals won more road games and no one won more home games. This is a team that can pitch, hit and catch the ball at a level no one else does.

The Indians won 94 games this year. They were an excellent home team but barely over .500 on the road. They had a +101 differential. They easily won their division and were one of the AL’s best teams all year long. Like the Cubs, the Indians are also an excellent defensive team. They were top 5 in UZR and UZR/150.

The Indians were 7th in MLB in ERA. The starters had an ERA that was good for 7th in MLB. The relievers also had an ERA that was 7th in MLB. Their staff was 5th in MLB in K rate, 7th in BB rate, 19th in HR rate, 6th in GB rate and 8th in K/BB ratio. Their staff is led by potential AL Cy Young winner, Corey Kluber.

Offensively, the Indians finished 5th in MLB in runs scored. They were 6th in batting average, 8th in OBP, 9th in slugging, 7th in wOBA and 6th in wRC+. They were also 4th in WAR. The Indians were led by Francisco Lindor, who was in the top 10 in MLB in WAR. Jason Kipnis was his usual solid self with a 4.8 WAR, which is also the WAR Jose Ramirez put up. Carlos Santana had a 3.7 WAR and Tyler Naquin, your potential AL Rookie of the year, came in with a solid 2.5 WAR in his first MLB season. The Indians also stole the 4th most bases in MLB, which was led by Rajai Davis, who ended up with 43 steals, which led the AL.

The Indians went from a very good team to a team that would be a tough out when they acquired Andrew Miller, who just rightfully won the ALCS MVP. He is a difference maker for this team. Whether they use him in the middle of the game or at the end, he has proven to be almost unhittable in the playoffs so far. In 11.2 IP, he has given up 5 hits, 2 walks, zero runs and struck out 21 batters. He has faced 41 batters. He is the guy the Cubs want to see the least in this series.

This is a pretty evenly matched series in many ways. The offenses are both very good. Both offenses have multiple ways to beat you, although Cleveland’s speed advantage could come into play here. They both prevent runs at a high level. Excellent defensive teams that know how to pitch. Where is the overall advantage here?

For me, the starting pitching is a big difference. Once the Indians get past Kluber, its shaky. The Indians aren’t healthy in the rotation. With Carrasco and Salazar out, that greatly hinders them. There is talk Danny Salazar could be back for this series in some kind of role and whatever that role is, if he can play, that’s a big bonus for the Indians.  And Trevor Bauer is an unknown right now.  When we last saw him, his finger was bleeding like he just tried to get out of a trap from one of the Saw movies.  Will he be able to pitch and give them several innings?  He isn’t a great pitcher but he is good and has the ability to be really good.  His availability and potential effectiveness is huge in this series as well. On the flip side, the Cubs rotation is in great shape and its set up well with all of their guys able to go on normal rest and in some cases, even having a little extra time. The Cubs starters were better throughout the season and once you get past Kluber, the advantage is tremendous. Can the Indians get 3 outings out of Kluber? Can Miller pitch 10+ high leverage innings in this series? If they can and those 2 perform at a high level, that is where the Indians can win the series.

However, I think the Cubs talent and starting pitching will just be too much for Cleveland.

Prediction: Cubs in 6.

Rob Shields
Rob Shields

Rob has interviewed guests from outlets such as ESPN, Sports Illustrated, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, FOX Sports, Baseball Prospectus, Athlon, Sporting News, MLB Network, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Info Solutions, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post, Sports on Earth, Grantland, NFL Network, FanGraphs, Football Outsiders, ProFootballFocus, etc. etc. The Baltimore native lives in Perry Hall with his Wife Lindsay, and two young sons. He has appeared as a guest on 105.7 The Fan, Q1370, and WNST 1570. Co-Host of The Warehouse: https://anchor.fm/the-warehouse Co-Host of Sports Tonight: https://anchor.fm/sports-tonight

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