Andy Guyader | Baltimore Sports and Life

Scouting the Steelers – Or Maybe Just A Certain One

Andy Guyader — Fri, 28 Sep 2018 21:59:24 +0000

As the Ravens line up to take on the Steelers this week, the back stories behind any of the 22 out there between the white lines on any given snap represent long odds, countless hours of sacrifice and much more. Also present is the chance that this very next snap will be their very last in the NFL. This game is a true spectacle to behold but it is just a game.

In my 10 years of college coaching experience I had the opportunity to teach, mentor, influence and lead several young men. It was a both a privilege and responsibility. I was also fortunate to earn the opportunity to coach at the United State Military Academy at West Point.

I humbly share one with you a back story of one participant from my perspective. These series of article were written back in week 7 of the 2015 season.

Alejandro Villanueva, My View – Part One: USMA

When the 4-2 Steelers take the field on Sunday, something special is going to happen. A young man with an already rich history will start for the first time in his professional football career. And as much fanfare may – or may not – be made of this news, I assure you the story behind Alejandro Villanueva’s journey to this moment is like few others.

I had the pleasure of being his coach at the United States Military Academy at West Point, and I’d like to share the story of a man – a friend – I know as ‘Ali.’

Our Meeting at West Point

The story begins more than six years ago when I found myself as a position coach at the United States Military Academy at West Point in January 2009. So much of the successes and failures of football have to do with the fit of a head coach – in the culture and in the fabric of an institution. But on a smaller scale, this is also true for a position coach.

As a staff, our first season was off to a fast start and I quickly found myself with the opportunity to coach Ali – a 6-foot 9-inch 290-pound giant. He’d had three other coaches and played three different positions before our staff arrived. It was now his senior year, and I was tasked with turning him into a Wide Receiver.

Ali had never played wide receiver at any level and just came off a season as an offensive lineman. Remember – this is his final collegiate season. And – he is 6-foot 9-inches tall… The clock was ticking and – I will admit – we were not sure we could make this happen.

No matter how you sliced it, Ali and I were in uncharted territory. He instantly became the tallest Wide Receiver in the history of college football. Not surprisingly, he was elected captain of the Army team. And there was the no-small-matter that he needed an eligible number – jerseys numbers in the 80s don’t come in his size…

When I think back at what we asked of this young man – this cadet – I am still astounded. It was one thing to ask a guy to move from guard to tackle. It was something completely different to move from tackle to Wide Receiver.

Imagine asking a very good player to change positions for what was going to be the last year of his football career. There is just one word that describes his attitude and character: selfless.

As it turned out, I was the right fit to guide Ali through this transition. We both had engineering and analytical backgrounds, so we approached problems and created solutions in a very similar fashion.

So how did we attack the monumental endeavor? We went to practice 45 minutes early every day, and I would throw him ball after ball after ball.

Catch, tuck, get up-field. Over and over again. Day after day. Rep after rep.

Ali would learn a skill, extend and refine it. We’d then come back to it again the next day while trying to add more in other areas. Make no mistake: it was a lot of work to get him ready to play Wide Receiver. We started with the basics and worked from there. No looking back – no regrets.

“Whatever you need coach” was Ali’s mantra.

To say this was a long shot was probably an understatement. I knew there was a Plan-B but neither Ali nor I was going to let that happen. Besides, coaching him was a new adventure – a new challenge – for me. Yes, some of the techniques he used were different – but just look at him – he is different.

So, even if we made it through spring ball – which we did – the road to fall camp loomed… And then there was the no-small-matter of actually having him play in a Division I football game.

Alejandro Villanueva – Part Two: Wide Receiver

Obviously, there were many challenges we faced each week on the practice field. Refinement, technique, time… But instead of taking you down that path, I want to highlight four events of that 2009 season.

Early in Fall Camp 2009

As we always do at the end of practice, the team gets into its Army versus Army drill. As seasoned Wide Receivers know, they are dependent upon everyone else doing their job so they can get a chance to contribute statistically. That realization was starting to sink in with Ali.

As a very talented, selfless football player, Ali’s focus was always to help his teammates. But standing out there at Wide Receiver, the game feels a lot different than it does in relative obscurity as an offensive lineman. Ali was starting to experience this change.

And then it happens, Quarterback Trent Steelman finally connects with Ali for a touchdown in practice. Exhale. Life is pumped back into this experiment.

Emotions were high – very high. This whole experiment was not some happy-go-lucky affair – there was pressure – but I don’t think we would have had it any other way. This was hard, and the margin for error was very small.

Army Versus Ball State: It’s the third game of the 2009 season, and we’re stalling a little bit on offense. Our opponent, Ball State, was a pretty good team that year. We needed a spark. Sometime late in the second quarter, our offense is facing fourth and long with the ball around our 40 yard line. Offensive Coordinator Ian Shields calls a pass play…

Steelman threw into double coverage and the safety tried to intercept the ball when all he had to do was knock it down. The ball bounced off his chest and Ali found his way out of the two defenders – catching it one-handed. It was an amazing play.

Two plays later, we hit Ali on a play action ball for his second collegiate touchdown. We went on to beat Ball State 24-17.

The play sequence never should have occurred except for the fact that Ali made a spectacular play on fourth down where there was no play – even for the best Wide Receiver in the game.

Alejandro Villanueva Stretches Like No Other Wide Receiver Can

Later that year – in a play that fools everyone, Ali catches a ball on the sideline against VMI. No one is used to seeing length out of bounds like this. Notice: the back judge was quick to call it out but was overturned on replay.

You know why he caught that ball? Yes, we did sideline drills and technique does exist for catching those types of balls. But Ali was often one to throw the ball around with his teammates – it was a bit of a “Thursday-practice-sort-of-thing.”

I remember watching the guys messing around and thinking it was not the best use of their time. They were trying to throw it out of bounds and see how far Ali could reach to catch it. I held my tongue and that play against VMI resulted. I like to think that was good coaching by just letting it happen…

Finally, it was Army-Navy. It was my first experience in this classic rivalry. A game that is larger than life. But for me, this day went beyond football.

The game ended with Navy possessing the football in a 17-3 Army loss. With seconds left, I started to walk onto the field to shake hands. I turned to my left and Ali was beside me – he was the first person I shook hands with. He thanked me for what I had done over the past 10 months. It had been quite a journey.

His football life was over. What he was about to do next was a known. He had branched infantry. He was ready to go and be with his classmates in a time of war. He was ready to go do his part. It was as if in an instant, it changed from “Whatever you need coach” to “Whatever you need America.”

Months later I learned that our exchange at the end of the Army-Navy game had been caught in the periphery of the TV cameras. A family friend had brought it up to me, describing it as very cool. Even then, I did not truly understand the depth of the man whose hand I was shaking. He had just sacrificed his senior year for a chance at contributing as a Wide Receiver and it had worked – he led the team in catches, yards and touchdowns. He did it because our coaching staff asked this of him. Because he is in a word: selfless.

Ali was then and continues to be now, larger than life itself.

Alejandro Villanueva, My View – Part Three: Service

You might be wondering how Ali ended up at West Point in the first place. It’s the same reason he branched infantry and later became a Ranger – his desire for selfless service. Not by talk but by action.

Ali chose to serve three tours in Afghanistan – a life that is about as far as you can get from the hotels he’ll now stay in on read games, and the attention the NFL has in America.

Ali returned to West Point for a visit Easter 2012, coming down from Fort Drum, New York where he was posted. We spent two straight days throwing the football and running routes, getting ready to film him. Basically a football “mini-camp” just for Ali. Proudly, my arm never quite bounced back from that experience.

From a physical perspective, Ali was very intriguing to NFL teams. He had played in the Shrine Game after the 2009 season and spent some time with the Bengals in a mini-camp. Creating a workout tape was a way to gauge interest. It was a smart thing to do. One on a long list for Ali.

It was a time to get to know him in a different way – as more than just a coach-player relationship. My family welcomed his stay with us that Easter weekend and to thank us, he brought us a beautiful Fort Drum throw and gave our young daughter a Fort Drum bear that she still snuggles. He attended services and had dinner with my family as well.

This was Ali’s first time back at West Point after graduating, and he said he felt like he was a toy visiting the toy factory from which he was made.

All told, Ali has worn a Bengals jersey, a Bears jersey, an Eagles jersey and now a Steelers jersey (images below – multiple internet sources). But it is the jersey he chose to put on for the US Army that is most impressive and reveals who he is. It has been a most improbable path to where he will be this Sunday, week 7 of this 2015 season.

I came across a video of this preseason’s Hall of Fame Game with the Steelers and Vikings. The announcers spent some time on Ali, talking about his Bronze Star and his military service. But I also heard the slight chuckles and flippant remarks about how the Taliban had not been able to hit the huge 6-foot 9-inch tall guy. It was just for a moment but the frustration struck me hard. Ali is a leader of men, not a punch line. Military service, in any form, is not funny.

“Leave no man behind” means something different to Ali. True valor is no joke. And it will it never be a laughing matter for for all the millions of service men and women who sacrifice daily. All I could think was that too many people really have no idea about all of this.

My hope is that Ali’s presence in the NFL will put a new spotlight on the sacrifices and contributions of our military. That the media will come to know Ali as I do, as his fellow Army Rangers do, and now how his Steelers’ teammates know him.

If you want to know why the United States of America is the best country in the world, travel to West Point. Sit quietly in the bleachers at the edge of the Plain in front of the barracks at 4:55pm. Take a moment to sit and watch what happens in the next five minutes. These are young men and women who bring honor to our great nation. And Ali Villanueva is a great representation of this. It will be exciting to watch such an honorable young man take the field this Sunday.

Alejandro Villanueva, My View – Part Four: NFL

Two week ago I saw Ali in San Diego when he was in town for the Monday night game. It’s the first time we’d met since he made the travel squad, and what did the now-starting left tackle for the Steelers and I talk about? His statistics class… Ali is not only playing full-time, but he’s also in the MBA program at Carnegie Melon University. Sprinkle in some football analytics and playbook technology innovations and it was a big night in the lobby!

With that story, I’d like to ask that we all take a moment and try to put ourselves in Ali’s shoes. Reflect on his background, reflect on his choices, reflect on his path.

We’d quickly know that the loud crowd we hear at Arrowhead, the edge rusher we are about to block on the first third-and-eight in the game, the gap we are responsible for on the game winning field goal – all of it has its place. But for people like Ali, this opportunity takes a different meaning.

I don’t know how Ali will play on Sunday, but I know exactly how he’ll react to the situation he is going to face. The choices made up to this point in his life are undeniable. What Ali represents is worthy of your respect. As he texted to me Sunday evening after playing three quarters against the Cardinals – “what an opportunity coach!”

This is a great story for a great person – no doubt. Ali is a leader, a leader the likes of which most of us will never have the opportunity to meet.

To Ali, it means choosing to fight for your country and taking all responsibility for your men – no matter what the risk. Most of us would never choose to follow his path. Most of us couldn’t handle it. But Ali is not most of us…

Ali will handle Sunday with complete focus and effort – just read the scouting report on him. Still, I am certain pro coaches have never scouted a man like this before. He’ll be the only one with this type of journey – ever. So enjoy him Steelers’ fans.

On Monday, a tweet came across my feed: “Let the Alejandro Villanueva era begin!”

Way late on that one, folks. Way late.

______________________________________________________

Added Later:

Alejandro Villanueva, My View – Part Five: National Anthem

So much dialogue and diatribe has accomplanied Colin Kapernick’s recent self-expression during the National Anthem. America is a land of the free and home of the brave.

I think the best we can do is ask ourselves: “Do we cherish our country-given freedoms and do we show bravery each day standing up to defend those freedoms?” If America is truly the land of the free and the home of the brave, this question should be one we ponder each day.

The best part of this question is that each and every American citizen can arrive at the answer “yes” and have a completely different reason.

In my opinion, if we get mad at someone for not standing for the national we show an extreme short sightedness. I liken it to the person who yells at others for not speaking English on American soil. “This is America, speak English!” : Ignorance DEFINED.

American pole vaulter and 2LT Kendricks in the Olympics during his approach to a vault in Rio heard the American National Anthem start playing and IMMEDIATELY aborted his approach to begin what could be seen as a desperate attempt to locate the flag and stand at attention facing the flag. For an outsider observing him, his actions were very hard NOT to understand – almost impossible. His intentions very clear – all through his self-expression.

http://www.foxsports.com/olympics/story/usa-olympics-sam-kendricks-pole-vault-national-anthem-082116

Kapernick’s self-expression is defended and protected. His intentions however are clearly unclear to many. He can do whatever he wants in regards to bringing attention to an injustice he feels strongly about. He seems to be dealing with people who are unclear as to what the intentions of his actions are due to where and when he is choosing to act.

I submit that Ali understands this more than most. As a teenager he chose to attend the United States Military Academy. He chose to branch infantry, become a Ranger and serve three tours of duty in Afghanistan. He did not chose to receive a Bronze Star for valor, someone else decided to give that to him.

http://www.steelers.com/news/article-1/National-Anthem-has-special-meaning-for-Villanueva/6d5b960d-53a5-430f-aafd-baf2fa573a4b

http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=17415674

As Ali approached graduation from the USMA back in 2010, there were voices out there that knew he had the goods to play professional football. He chose to not pursue that path. You want to know why? I’ve heard him say it:

“I just want to do my part”

He knew what he was called to do. It was purely his choice and self-expression as to exactly how he wanted to do his part.

I still encourage anyone who has not experienced it in person to sit quietly in the bleachers at the edge of the Plain at West Point in front of the barracks at 4:55pm. Take a moment and absorb what happens in the next five minutes. You will see some pretty powerful self-expression. Actions will not be confusing.

Selflessness DEFINED.

God Bless America.

______________________________________________________

I spoke with Al by phone just last week – I can report that he is still exactly the same guy I met on that football field in West Point, NY. Has a wife and a few kids now – so maybe something changed.

Thank you for reading. Feel free to post a note to this veteran or any of our veterans on the message board.

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Ravens Review and Preview – Part 5 of 5

Andy Guyader — Fri, 31 Aug 2018 05:22:20 +0000

Final review of 2017 as dissected in the Parts 1-4 was a record of 9-7. Perhaps shockingly, or not, the Ravens were one 4th and 12 away from a playoff birth. Were the 2017 Ravens a playoff team that missed its calling or an over-achieving bunch that ended the season where they should have – on the outside, looking in through the window at the playoff party?

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Last year, here is a look back at the season win total predictions for the Ravens going into the 2017 season:

ESPN : 7 wins

Sports Illustrated : 9-7

USA Today : 9-7

Vegas over/under: 8.5

Ravens got to 9 wins. Were many more possible? I re-submit games from weeks 6,14 and 17.

Week 6 – a home loss from a collapse at the end of the game to have a tie game broken by a late Bears field goal. No TDs by the offense and they still have a game but are unable to rally late at home and stop the Bears from winning.

Week 14 – They give up the last 10 points of the game and PIT wins by a point.

Week 17 – Well documented loss to CIN and the Ravens bounce themselves out of the playoffs.

We’ll probably be a little careful going too far over the top with weeks 14 and 17. If they would have won those two games, they would have hit their last 9 games of the season with an 8-1 mark.

What team will show up for 2018?

Let’s start with the division – AFC North has the Browns and perhaps they are not a “get well week” anymore. Much has been said about the resurgence of the Browns as they approach 2018 and thebetting action on them to win the AFC North. Can the Ravens still go 2-0 against Cleveland and can they go 2-0 against Cincinnati? The last time the Ravens went 2-0 vs Cincinnati in a season was back in 2011. Can the Ravens split with PIT? They did sweep the series in 2015 from Steelers. Is 5-1 in the division a real possibility for this team?

What do some other people think? The Ravens preseason rankings:

ESPN Power ranking : 22.

Below them in the rankings are the division foes Bengals and Browns. Also below them are the Bucs and Bills. That would be 6 games but this ranking is fluid and will change as the season unfolds. Two teams sit just above them in the current rankings – Denver and Oakland.

Bleacher Report Ranking : 17

In this ranking – the Ravens are ranked above the Broncos and Raiders. Bleacher Report’s perhaps least surprising comment: “The team could hang around in the AFC North if it can avoid major injuries and get a break or two. But the Ravens don’t have much margin for error.”

ESPN projected wins : 8.4

Vegas at 8 with -165 on over and +135 on under

Forbes odds are 8.5 at -130 on the under.

Bleacher Report: Baltimore Ravens: 8 (-145/+125) Meaning that it would take a $145 bet to win $100 on the under and a $100 bet would get you $125 winnings if they go over 8. They expect them to stay under 8….

2018 SEASON PREVIEW… BREAKING THE SEASON INTO 4 QUARTERS

1st quarter: Buffalo and Denver look good. On the road to CIN and PIT does not look so good but CIN could be down a bit. And MAYBE they can catch PIT sleep walking thru their second home game of the year. Probably a stretch. Great would be 3-1, probably looking at 2-2. A disaster would be 1-3.

2nd quarter: Make or break… 3 road games in this stretch. CLE is much improved and then to TEN, NO and CAR. Those are three good teams until we find out otherwise. Very successful would be 3-1… probably 1-3 record.

At the midway point: Count up the “probably” from quarters 1 and 2 of the season and we have a 3-5 record. A very successful first half would have them at 6-2. If Joe Flacco regains even “pro bowl alternate” form, they should have more than 3 wins.

3rd quarter of the season: PIT and ATL are good teams – very good. By this portion of the season, PIT should be in full focus mode – they should be tough unless Big Ben is dinged up. They will have to be able to beat OAK and CIN. Best looks like 2-2 and probably 2-2 but 1-3 looms.

4th quarter: What if they need a late season rally? They play at KC – not easy with those vocal fans. Tampa Bay could have already sacked their bats. Chargers could be wrapping up their division crown and then Clevland at home. If the Ravens need a 3-1 stretch at this point – that would probably be tough. Best would be 3-1 but probably 2-2.

My prediction…. 6-10. I think they stumble to 3-5 out of the gate and finish up 3-5 on the back end.

How do they make the playoffs? Let’s say they need 10 wins to get into a wildcard as PIT should win the division. How do they do it… Flacco blows up and they fix the late game collapse issues. They must start the season fast with 3-1 or somehow 4-0. Either one and they would look good to sit 6-2 at 8 games. They finish the season 5-3 by getting hot out of the bye with 2 wins and go 3-2 to finish the season up before entering the playoffs. But as the Bleacher Report said… “The team could hang around in the AFC North if it can avoid major injuries and get a break or two. But the Ravens don’t have much margin for error.” IF……

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Ravens Review and Preview – Part 4 of 5

Andy Guyader — Tue, 14 Aug 2018 15:53:16 +0000

Part 4 of this series is dedicated to reviewing the final 4 games of 2017. Part five will look deeper into the 2018 preview. Kudos to my colleague Rivers McCown and his piece looking ahead at certain aspects for the Ravens – I will work off it next week with team level analytics and projections. If this series is new to you, jump to Part 1 here.

The 4th quarter of the 2017 season starts with the Ravens sitting at a 7-5 and in the midst of a three game win streak. This quarter of the season brings games against the Steelers on the road and the Bengals at home. To make the playoffs, they will probably need 10-6 – so at least a 3-1 record over the last 4 games of the year.

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Game 13: BAL at PIT – BAL 38 vs PIT 39

Good teams “start strong and finish strong…” This does not happen for the Ravens this week on the road in a divisional game. Ravens gave up the first 14 points and the last 10 points in a loss to the Steelers. Approximately, the 35 minutes of game clock in the middle of the game shows the Ravens with a 38-16 points advantage. The GameMap shows the extremely poor start for the Ravens. Their first possession ends in a interception after over 4 minutes and 30 seconds of possession. The Steelers capitalize with a touchdown drive. The Ravens punt on their next possession and pin the Steelers deep in their own territory at the 10 yard line. This is great opportunity to hold the Steelers and get good field position. The field position marker for the drive is labelled with a red “1” on the graphic. The steelers take that ball and march 90 yards in 12 plays. Ravens down 14 as the second quarter begins.

The Ravens then score on their next five possessions – 4 TDs and a FG. Highlighted a red “2” in the graphic is the Steelers FG they kick just before halftime. This turns out to be an important possession. The drive begins with just under 2 minutes left in the half and starts after the Tucker touchback. 11 plays and 50 yards later, a 43 yard field goal ends the first half. The Steelers put all shotgun and no huddle on the Ravens. This same thing – FG just before half – will happen in game 14 against Cleveland and also in game 15 against the Colts except the Colts miss their FG attempt. View the GameMaps to see this trend revealed.

The last highlighted drive is the red “3” in the 4th quarter. Points are being scored very quickly in the 4th quarter and the Ravens find themselves up 38-36 with about 3:20 left in the game. The Steelers have just scored a TD and the Ravens answer with a 3 and out. The play calls go: incomplete, 7 yard run by Collins and incomplete on 3rd and 3. They punt and the Steelers do what playoff teams do – they come thru in the clutch and drive for a game winning 46 yard field goal.

The Steelers are now 11-2 and the Ravens fall to 7-6. Big Ben had a big day statistically throwing for 506 yards and two touchdowns, becoming the first quarterback in NFL history to top 500 yards passing three times. AB goes for 11 and 213 and Bell scores 3 tugs. This leaves the Ravens in the position where they will probably need to win out to make the playoffs….

Game 14: BAL 27 vs CLE 10

Cleveland takes a 7-3 lead midway thru the 2nd quarter on a 96 yard TD drive. Cleveland looks to be much improved this year and we’ll discuss that in the 5th article in this series but last year, the Browns were in the midst of a perfect backwards running of the table and the Ravens got their second win against them.

The Ravens score two TDs late in the first half but again yield a FG drive just before half. Unlike last week, this one will not come back to be a big factor in the outcome of the game but it is a trend that should be addressed. The Browns go 47 yards in less than the last minute of the first half to kick a 45-yard FG to get points as the 1st half closes.

Ravens get a defensive TD to put the game out of reach in the middle of the 3rd quarter as they also do more nice work in the second half. They take the ball away twice and get a turnover on downs. The Ravens now sit at 8-6 and the playoffs are real if they win out.

Game 15: BAL 23 vs IND 16.

3 FGs by each team and two missed FGs in the first half by the Colts highlight a game that BAL never trails in. The Ravens handle their business against the Colts with Jacoby Brissett at QB. The Colts fall to 3-12 on the season.

Game 16: BAL 27 vs CIN 31 –

With playoff possibilities on the line, The Ravens give up a very late go-ahead TD to the Bengals. The Bengals – with no playoff hopes alive – will end the season 7-9 and enjoy knocking the Ravens out of the playoffs.

Dalton throws a 49-yard touchdown pass with 44 seconds left to take a 31-27 lead. But look back at the first quarter. The Ravens start slow again on offense. Throughout most of the first half, they consistently have starting field position in their favor (note the location of the squares on the GameMap). If it weren’t for a huge kickoff return from Chris Moore that the Ravens turned into a TD just before half… the Ravens would have been down two touchdowns going into the intermission. Also note the low spot of the green line on the “Game-Q” chart – this marks the cumulative drive performance for the offense and the collectively poor performance until just before halftime.

In the second half’s first drive, the Ravens offense gives up an 89 yard interception return for a TD before running off three consecutive scoring possessions for 17 points to take the lead 27-24. That lead will not hold up as the Bengals go 90 yards in 11 plays and score on 4th and 12 with a 49-yard pass to Boyd from Dalton. Ravens will not be able to get a first down and end the season watching the Bengals kneel the game out.

“Nobody’s happy,” safety Eric Weddle said. “We didn’t make the plays. We weren’t good enough.”

That would sum up both game 13 against the Steelers and game 16 against the Bengals – both divisional games that were very winnable with better performance late on the 4th quarter. Good teams win those games – good teams finish. Can the Ravens finish some of those games in 2018? Will they be good enough to create those same game situations in 2018? I will look a little closer at that next week in part 5 of this series.

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Ravens Review and Preview – Part 3 of 5

Andy Guyader — Mon, 30 Jul 2018 05:17:06 +0000

After 8 games of the 2017 season, Ravens were sitting at 4-4. (Link: games 1-4, Link: games 5-8) The third “quarter” of the season awaited them. 10 wins should get them into the playoffs so they have real work to do and quickly. They’ll probably need a 6-2 record in the second half of the season to find their way into the playoffs. They start the second half of the season with a team that will eventually get to the divisional round of the playoffs. Baltimore makes a road trip to take on the Tennessee Titans.

Game 9 – BAL 20 vs TEN 23:
First two drives of the game result in FGs for each team. A 3-3 game begins to break apart when Flacco’s pass deep middle intended for Perriman is intercepted. I’ve never heard of this in pro football but this is Byard’s 4th INT in the last two games. Incredibly, he will add another to tally 5 INTs in just 2 games. He returns this first INT 33 yards to set up great field position. A quick drive of 46 yards puts the Titans in the end zone. Ravens answer with a long FG drive. However, the Titans next TD comes off of a shanked punt giving the Titans the ball on the Raven’s 26 yard line.

Also highlighted is the turnover on downs by the Ravens at the end of the 3rd quarter. The defense rises with an interception by Weddle giving the Ravens great field position and they drive the ball for a TD. However, the Titans respond on their next drive with a TD putting the game back to a 10-point deficit.

This game is a good example of how bulk/game statistics like total yards have limited value as opposed to evaluation of each drive thru a drive performance metric. The Ravens outgainned the Titans 341 yards to 257 yards but note that two of the Titans TD drives totaled just 72 yards. The first and second TDs by the Titans were 46 and 26 yards. Those drives are highly successful – especially since a short field will capture the attention of the defense. Every defense has been trained/challenged to focus on limiting the damage in these situations. Holding a team to a FG is a HUGE positive for a defense put in this bad starting situation. The Titans were good enough to both create the great field positions and score touchdowns. A real show of strength and a huge deciding factor in the game.

Game 10 – BAL 23 vs GB 0: Three first half turnovers by the Packers end in just a 6-0 lead for the Ravens at half. Ravens get into the end zone quickly in the second half and essentially end the game by forcing another turnover on the next GB possession. 6 total turnovers and two turnover on downs is a great showing by the Raven’s defense. Ravens season record now evens to 5-5.

Game 11 – BAL 23 vs Texans 16:
The Ravens first possession results in a punt (drives ended in a punt are not “marked” on the GameMap) and the Texans take their first possession for a TD. In the middle of the second quarter, the Ravens score two TDs. Just as TEN created and converted on great starting field position, the Ravens now do the same to the Texans. The first TD drive is only 50 yards and the second TD drive is only 46 yards. The second one comes on the heals of an interception by Tony Jefferson. That is a great showing of strength by the Ravens. The teams will exchange field goals the rest of the way and the Ravens never relinquish the lead.

The Ravens forced three turnovers, two in the final five minutes. After Suggs stripped the ball from quarterback Tom Savage and Baltimore recovered, Justin Tucker kicked his third field goal to put the game back to seven points. Anthony Levine then intercepted Savage pass on the next drive to end the game.

Game 12 – BAL 44 vs DET 20: A strong performance in the first half gives the Ravens a 20-0 lead at half and they are playing quite well on both sides of the ball. The Lions take the opening possession of the 2nd half and score a TD. They will score again near the end of the quarter to make the deficit just one score. However, the Ravens immediately respond with a TD. This leads to another TD by the Lions about 5 minutes into the 4th quarter. At this point, a quick scan backwards shows 3 TDs for each team and 2 FGs for the Ravens. It is a one score game at this time. The Ravens go on to score 17 points over the last half of the 4th quarter to make the score look like a blowout but GameMap helps us see that this was anything but a 24 point blowout. After a one-sided first half, this game tightens up and is closely contested until mid-way in the 4th quarter. The Ravens kick a FG, score an TD on offense and another by the defense to end the game.

The Ravens are on a 3 game win streak and have a 7-5 record. They finally got their 3-1 “quarter” of the 2017 season. The three wins come against teams that will not make the playoffs. The closest to making the playoffs would be the Lions who finish the season 9-7. Two 9-7 teams will make the playoffs in the AFC but 9 wins does not get you into the post season in the NFC. The Texans finish the year with 4 wins the Packers finish with 7 wins.

For the upcoming season in 2018, game 9 starts a three game home stand against PIT, CIN and OAK Game 12 for 2018 then has the Ravens on the road at the Falcons.

This 3rd “quarter” of the 2018 season has two teams that will (almost definitely) be playing in the divisional rounds. Those being the Steelers and Falcons. And if the Ravens are going to make the playoffs, they do it by beating the Bengals to that spot. They would certainly have to beat them at home in game number 10. Feels like they will need to go at least 4-2 in division and 6-4 out of division to get the playoffs accomplished.

At the end of this 3rd “quarter” of the season, the Ravens will have played the 5 division games. Only a home game against Cleveland on the last day of the season remains in division. Can the Ravens be 8-4 at this point in the season? That feels like a very tall task considering the teams on the schedule. Not that Oakland is an “also-ran” in the league. They have one of the premier pas rushers and a QB in the discussion for NFL MVP a few years back.

The more I look at it, the Ravens chances fall squarely on the shoulders of one Joseph Vincent Flacco and his ability to win games. The equation keeps coming back to that for me. In a QB-driven league, your QB needs to be good for you to have a chance. This team feels like the QB needs to be GREAT for this team to have a chance to make the post-season. They’ll need points. They’ll need critical throws to convert 1st downs at critical moments in games. Flacco has to be the guy week in and week out for this team to make a playoff appearance. We’ll start to see on Thursday night in Canton.

Discuss your thoughts on this topic on our message board.

The post Ravens Review and Preview – Part 3 of 5 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Ravens Review and Preview – Part 2 of 5

Andy Guyader — Tue, 24 Jul 2018 23:53:05 +0000

Ravens went 2-2 in the first quarter of the season. To get to 10 wins, you’ll probably need two “quarters” of the season at 3-1. Unfortunately, the second quarter of the 2017 season will not bring a 3-1 record to the organization. They will settle for another 2-2 record and the game against CHI in week 6 reveals much about the Ravens as a team and their possible playoff chances.

Game 5 – BAL 30 vs OAK 17. The first six drives for both teams combined ended in scores . The Ravens are out quickly to a 14-0 lead with TDs by the offense and defense. Flacco hits Wallace for 52 yards on the first play from scrimmage to start the day and they score four plays later. Marshawn Lynch fumbled on the Raider’s first possession and Jimmy Smith picked it up and returned it for a TD. About 5 minutes in to the game and the Ravens are up 14-0. Playing without QB David Carr, the Raiders get to within a 7 points of the Ravens with about 5 minutes left in the 3^rd quarter. The GameMap shows the Ravens respond to the 24-17 game with a drive resulting in a FG to put the lead at 10 points. Ravens add a late field goal. The Ravens get a good win on the road in Oakland and they sit at 3-2. A home game against the Bears awaits…

Game 6 – BAL 24 vs CHI 27. A Loss vs CHI in OT at home is a big disappointment. The Bears will go on to be 5-11 on the year. This was a very revealing loss for the Ravens. At home against a rookie QB making his first career start on the road, Trubisky directed a conservative game plan that leaned heavily on the run. The first-round draft pick completed just 8 passes for 113 yards. The Bears expose the Ravens run defense as Bear’s RB Howard had 36 carries and the Bears total 231 yards on the ground.

Baltimore was in position for the go-ahead score late in the 4th quarter when Adrian Amos tallied his first career interception on a pass that bounced off the chest of receiver Chris Moore, who was covered tightly by Kyle Fuller. Amos returned it 90 yards for a Chicago TD instead. The Ravens battled back to score the last 10 points of the game to force overtime. After a few punts in overtime, the Bears go 71 yards in 8 plays to kick a 40 yard FG for the win. This is a bad game for the Ravens offense.

The Ravens were coming off a 30-17 win in Oakland in which they did not commit a turnover, didn’t allow a sack and were penalized only once. The 24 points for Baltimore is deceiving when looking only at the score of the game. The offense did not get into the end zone for the Ravens and they also gave up a TD on an interception return. This is a very bad showing for the Ravens offense. Also, the first TD by the Bears came from great starting field position for the Bears. They started that drive on the Raven’s 20 yard line. The field-Q and the Drive-Q markers are seen just behind the orange TD marker. Holding the Bears to a FG in this situation would have been a huge win for the Ravens defense but instead the Bears cash in on a great opportunity and never trail the rest of the game. The Ravens now sit at 3-3.

Game 7 – BAL 16 vs MIN 24. Loss at MIN – nothing shameful in losing to a team that will eventually be in the NFC Championship game. The nine combined field goals tied an NFL record for most made field goals in a game. A 9-6 game at the half becomes 18-6 by the middle of the 3^rd quarter.

The Ravens offense hurts the operation and field position is sacrificed. The Ravens have a drive for negative 9 yards back to their own 15 yard line. Never good to have your punter on the field near your own end zone and it results in great field position for the Vikings. They go 45 yards in 3 plays for a TD by the Vikings.

Game 8 – BAL 40 vs MIA 0. A nice home win for the Ravens. Two defensive TDs and 3 TDs by the offense as BAL gets a dominating win.

The Ravens again go 2-2 as they did in the first “quarter” of the season. Game 6 versus CHI is indeed a huge missed opportunity.

What will the first half of the 2018 season possibly look like?

Last year, Flacco injured his back before training camp… is he healthy from the start this year? With Flacco healthy, they have a QB and this is a QB driven league.

Great article by Mike Randall about the newly drafted tight ends. To me, those TWO picks clearly says something about the offensive philosophy of the team and where the Ravens intent to throw passes on the field. Can those new additions push the Ravens forward on offense? Randall and Gabe Ferguson discussed their expectations for the Raven’s offense on a round table a few weeks back – take a look.

The WR group interests me, not only because I coached that position at the college level, but because the Ravens revamped the whole group. Did the Ravens find those answers on the outside at WR in free agency? Different does not mean better and the only thing that will inject excitement are guys who can consistently win match-ups. Will that group be good enough to remove extra defenders from the box? I would speculate that defenses will attempt to force the Ravens to beat them by throwing passes to the WRs. The Ravens ranked No. 29 in the league in passing last season. I feel strongly that the Ravens must be successful throwing the ball to WRs to ultimately be successful on offense.

First 8 games from 2018….

First 4: Feels like they will need a good/great start for a playoff season. They need to start the season 3-1. Assuming that one loss will be the Steelers on the road, they must make the Steelers work for that win. That means that they must start 3-0. Can they get the road win in CIN. Will CIN be ready to host the Ravens at home this year and avenge the opening week loss of 2017. The Bills did make the playoffs last year but the Ravens have BUF at home. You can see their first three opponents not making the playoffs. You can’t lose many games to teams that will not be making the playoffs.

Games 5 thru 8: They will need to beat CLE on the road and then a tough three game stretch awaits…. Titans made the divisional round last year and the Saints and Panthers both finished 11-5. Can they win 2 of those 3 with two of those games on the road?

If this is a playoff team – they need to be 5-3 or 6-2 at this point. What do you think? What will the eight GameMaps reveal at the end of October for the Ravens?

Discuss your thoughts on this topic on our message board.

The post Ravens Review and Preview – Part 2 of 5 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Ravens Review and Preview – Part 1 of 5

Andy Guyader — Fri, 20 Jul 2018 22:22:10 +0000

Are the 2018 Ravens trending up or down? The 2018 Ravens follow three years of improved record and some prominent traditional statistics. Let’s take a look:

Chronologically from 2015 to 2016 to 2017:

Wins: 5 to 8 to 9

Points For: 328 to 343 to 395

Points Against: 401 to 321 to 303

Point Differential: -73 to +22 to +92

That shows definite statistical improvement over that three year window. One could even categorize it as “strong and impressive”. They narrowly missed the playoffs in 2017. Is this a team on the rise headed into 2018? Are the Ravens definitely playoff bound? Fellow writer Gabe Ferguson Wonders if the Ravens are a Flawed Team…. Good read.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

A quick look at some preseason Power Rankings after the draft reveals a WIDE range of opinions about the club.

ESPN has them ranked #22. That would be up slightly from the #24 slot they held before the draft.

The NFL website has them ranked #14 up two spots from their #16 rank before the draft. The Ravens drafted 12 players and the first four selections were on offense. Perhaps, that is better represented by saying three of those picks were meant to help their veteran QB out on the field. I could comment about how drafting Lamar Jackson was also done to “help” Flacco out on the field but I will refrain. Ozzie Newsome is not planning to watch his last season as a GM hinge on the performance of a rookie QB. That pick will hopefully be his legacy/gift to the organization. Time will tell. Newsome did not draft Lamar Jackson in hopes of beating out Joe Flacco. Newsome made his QB intentions clear when he signed Flacco back in 2013 to that big contract. Could the stars be aligning for a push from the Ravens to help celebrate Newsome’s 17 years of service as general manager in the organization. Will the Ravens sit atop the standings on 12/30/18 as they host the Browns at home to end the season? Could the stars be aligning for the 2018 Ravens?

A listing of the draft choices from this year’s draft:

Rivers McCown wrote a nice article about the Raven’s offense (specifically Alex Collins) and expectations heading into 2017. Take a look if you have not already done so – you will enjoy it.

This article will mainly deal with unit (offense and defense) and team assessment through drive data. Before we get further into 2018, how did the 2017 season go? The 9-7 record over the 16 game season will be broken into “quarters”. We will rewind the season in four quarters of four games and re-evaluate and explore deeply the numbers produced – not the bulk statistics – but instead the game to game numbers through drive performance analytics and data visualizations.

For each game, a brief written game synopsis surrounds a chronological visualization of drive data produced in the game. The drive data is processed through a performance metric accounting for such information as starting field position, clock time, drive result, yards covered and more. The horizontal axis is time on the game clock. Each graphical game summary (GameMap) is presented from the perspective of the Ravens. Note the vertical axes labelled as Successful above the line and Unsuccessful below the line. Every drive has been mapped to a single success continuum. Also, two plots are presented – a Trend-Q and Game-Q. The Trend represented the current flow and feel of the game while the GameQ represents the cumulative effect of all drives to that point in the game. Links to some short videos will also help calibrate you to the presentation scheme. Once you are calibrated, the flow and feel of a game is revealed quickly in this chronological presentation. You get a very quick and accurate view of how the score came to be and how each team and unit played throughout the game.

The concepts behind Visualytics are described here as well. A quick note about the website (TheQ5.com) – the 2018 season was spent developing a predictive analytics model focusing on game outcomes. You can see the successful results from the efforts of a betting model reacting to point spreads from weeks 5 thru 16 of the 2018 season. Later articles will discuss more of this work and because of the efforts put to the model, the website has not been updated with the 2018 GameMaps or data but we hope to correct that soon. Here are the visualizations for the first four games from the 2017 Raven’s season:

Week 1: BAL 20 vs CIN 0. Three first half turnovers and 17 points start the season out in great fashion for the Ravens on the road. A late first half touchdown by the Ravens is quickly followed by an interception. Lardarius Webb’s interception of Andrew Dalton sets up the Ravens at the Bengals 2 yard line. They convert the possession into a touchdown in only one play. Terrance West runs over left guard for a 2-yard score.

The second half starts with a Ravens possession ended with a quick interception at their own 26 yard line but the defense rises up and forces a sack-turnover to end the threat. Terrell Suggs causes Dalton to fumble on 3^rd and 2, recovered by the Ravens. The Ravens start possession at their own 12 yard line and take it 81 yards to the Bengals 7-yard line where they settle for a field goal.

Week 2: BAL 24 vs CLE 10 in the home opener at M&T Bank Stadium. Just as in the opener, action just before halftime has a string influence on the outcome of the game. Up 14-7, the Ravens drive only 28 yards on the arm of Flacco to attempt a 58 yard field goal by Justin Tucker. Unabel to convert the field goal attempt, the Browns put the ball in the hands of quarterback Kevin Hogan and an interception by Tyus Bowser with under 30 seconds left gives Baltimore the ball at the Cleveland 40 yard line. Javorious Allen goes over left guard for 37 yards and Flacco hits Maclin for a 2-yard touchdown pass with only a few seconds left in the half.

The Ravens punt on their first possession of the 2^nd half and the Browns manage a field goal on their first possession, The teams exchange punts before the Ravens kick a field goal on the first play of the 4^th quarter. Baltimore intercepts DeShone Kizer on the next two possessions and the end the game with a great 2-0 record to start the year.

Game 3: JAGS 44 vs BAL 7. The week 3 game brings the 2-0 Ravens into Wembley Stadium as 3-point favorites to take on the 1-1 Jaguars. As what could be a precursor for the Jaguars eventual march to the AFC Championship game, the Ravens suffer a bad early season loss. The Jags dominate the Ravens jumping out to a 44-0 lead in only 3 quarters of work. The lack of drive markers (circles) in the “successful” range on the Trend-Q plot reveal that neither or offense or defense showed up in the first half. Two touchdowns and three field goals in the first half for the Jags does not stop in the second half. An interception and a fumble by the Ravens in the 3^rd quarter are turned into touchdowns by the Jags offense. I am sure Harbaugh brought to the team that this game needed to be corrected quickly as the Steelers loomed next week. That must have been a very quiet plane flight back across the Atlantic.

Game 4: PIT 26 vs BAL 9. Even home cooking does not do the trick to get a win over what most people know to be a top team in the entire AFC. The Steelers get a win at M&T Stadium to move to 3-1 on the season while the Ravens drop to 2-2. The first half is a tough watch for the home fans as the “Successful” region of the GameMap is empty except for a starting field position on a PIT drive. That drive in the first quarter has the Steelers taking it 84 yards in 16 plays from their own 3 yard-line. The Ravens 19-point first half deficit is turned to a 19-9 game by midway thru the 3^rd quarter but they get no closer. Two fourth quarter possessions end in Flacco interceptions – both on short passes over the middle – and the Steelers Le’Veon Bell scores on a 1-yard rush with just over 2 minutes left to ice the game.

So, the Ravens sit 2-2 after the first quarter of the 2017 season. It will turn out that those two losses would come against two teams to eventually make the divisional round of the playoffs but those two losses were not “good losses” – not games where much positive could be extracted. Next week we look back at the second quarter of the season, games 5 thru 8.

The post Ravens Review and Preview – Part 1 of 5 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Week 1 Analytics Preview – Ravens vs Bengals

Andy Guyader — Fri, 08 Sep 2017 17:45:45 +0000

The 2017 NFL season is already in motion. What a start last night. The Chiefs have already upset the Patriots on opening night 42-27.

With John Harbaugh beginning his 10^th year as the head coach in Baltimore, what does the 2017 have in store for the Ravens? We do know that the Ravens will start the season with a divisional game on the road in Cincinnati. How has that gone in the recent past? The last six games dating back to 2014 show the Ravens at 1-5 against the Bengals. The only win coming in week 12 of the 2016 season. Except for the finale of the 2016 season, these games have been close.

(You can discus this topic on the discussion board here)

Near the end of this post, the past 6 games between Bengals and Ravens will be presented through graphical game summaries for each game – the GameMap. This is a form of descriptive analytics employing a data visualization scheme applied to game drive data. Before presenting those GameMaps, we’ll explore some recent season analytics for both the Ravens and Bengals.

A matchup analysis using performance metrics developed at theQ5.com for BAL (8-8) vs CIN (6-10) at the conclusion of 2016 season shows the Bengals having better performance over the entirety of the season despite having a record with two less wins. You can explore Q-scores and the drive performance metrics over at www.theq5.com. Also, every game over the past two seasons sits in visual format accounting for every drive from 2015 and 2016. Relive the past two seasons of any team. Super Bowls and playoff games reside there as well.

In the two pictures below, the Ravens and Bengals are matched-up after 16 games in the 2016 season. Their drive performance is compared side by side and also within the context of the entire league. The Ravens are the green circle and the Bengals are the black circle. The size of the circle reflects the performance in the last 4 games while the location reflects left to right the season long performance. The further to the right, the better the season performance.

Bengals were 6-10 but the drive data performance analytics says they were better than their record. Later in this post we’ll see that the Bengals were horrible in close games. They could be primed for a good year in 2017 since they played better than their 2016 record showed. The Ravens finished 8-8 with a week 17 loss to the Bengals after playoff elimination the week before vs Pittsburgh (more on this later as well).

A visualization of points for and points against in a per game calculation since 2011 is presented for both teams.

BAL:

CIN:

A recent article by Bill Barnwell – http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/20114211/the-nfl-stats-matter-most-2017-offseason-bill-barnwell – puts three team stats forward that may best predict future performance.

Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average -DVOA – for 2016 and 2015 (last year)

In this ranking we find Bal and CIN right next to each other at numbers 12 and 13.

Point Differential and the Pythagorean expectation for win total.

A look at the win totals and season point differentials for both teams over the past 10 seasons shows the following:

Record in close games (7 pts or less)

Ravens were 6-5 in 2016 which was an improvement from 2015 when they were 5-7.

What did the Bengals do in close games in 2016? 1 win and 7 losses:

The prediction of future performance based on past performance is not a new field at all. The attempts to predict football game outcomes are gaining steam and models/concepts are improving. This is a challenging endeavor. In my opinion, past performance points towards the Bengals winning this game. 2016 was a down year for victories with 6 but the analytics say they performed better than their 6 wins showed. This is a huge game for both head coaches. Harbaugh trying to get back to the playoffs after two years away and Lewis trying to show those 6 wins last year were an anomaly and perhaps sooner than later he’ll need to bring a playoff win to Cincinnati. 15 years is a long tenure for a head coach and it looks even longer when no playoff wins are present. As a college football coach, the saying “consistently good, occasionally great” keeps a job. I wonder when “occasionally great” will require a playoff win for the Bengals and their fans.

As we get ready for Harbaugh’s 10^th season as head coach of the Ravens, the head coach on the other sideline is headed into his 15^th season as the head coach of the Bengals. Marvin Lewis was defensive coordinator of the Ravens from 1996 to 2001 helping the Ravens win Super Bowl 35 over the NY Giants. As head coach of the Bengals, Lewis has a 0-7 post season record while Harbaugh has a 10-5 playoff mark.

The past six games presented on GameMaps – the games 2014-2016 with BAL vs CIN:

2016 BAL vs CIN: The Raven’s playoff chances ended in week 16 with a loss to the Steelers. That 31-27 loss may have been one of the most crushing losses in team history as a 27-24 lead captured with just 78 seconds left in the game was turned into a 31-27 deficit when Antonio Brown caught a 4 yard TD pass with just a few seconds left on the clock. The hangover from that game in week 16 was evident when the Ravens played the Bengals in week 17. The Bengals scored points on all four of their first half possessions building a 20-3 lead at halftime. A long drive by the Ravens near the end of the second quarter ended with an interception that was turned around into a field goal for the Bengals with just a few seconds left in the half.

Baltimore’s lone victory when looking at the last six games with Cincinnati sits in week 12 of the 2016 season. 16 first half points would have been enough to win as the Ravens managed only a field goal in the 2^nd half in-route to a 19-14 victory. This victory came within a sequence with the season where. This victory came within a sequence within the 2016 season where the Ravens were 5-2 as seen in the season results summary. Within that stretch, those two losses came at the hands of the Cowboys and Patriots. No shame in that.

The Ravens 2016 week by week results:

The Ravens ended the season 1-3 in the last 4 while the Bengals finished 2-2.

2015 BAL vs CIN: Games in 2015 occurred in weeks 17 and 3. The Bengals swept the season series from the Ravens.

2014 BAL vs CIN: The 2014 season was also swept by the Bengals. The GameMaps show the Bengals scoring the last points in each game – touchdowns late in the 4^th quarter secured victory for CIN in each game.

If you made it this far through the visualizations, here is one more from last night’s game with the Chiefs as the focus team.

The post Week 1 Analytics Preview – Ravens vs Bengals appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

The Fit of Analytics in the Game and Business of Football

Andy Guyader — Sun, 26 Mar 2017 21:12:21 +0000

Data are plentiful in the game of football. Newly introduced radio-frequency identification (RFID) technology produces real-time player tracking data[1]. Football is becoming a big data problem.

A team’s record is extremely objective and exact. But what about all the rest of the numbers and information produced in football? Critically necessary information is found on film, in combine numbers and in face-to-face interactions. Can a methodology be created where data-driven insights are leveraged by decision-makers? Data are extremely exact and objective. The key for the decision-makers is to leverage the data and information to create actionable insights. Static numbers in a rectangular format are the antithesis of the kinematics of the game. Numbers for success on the field are thought to be found in the weight room on the squat rack not from analytics or probabilities.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Decisions on personnel, play calls, practice allocations and evaluations are based on sound principles but also heavily influenced by feel. For descriptive and predictive analytics to have a voice in the football space, the data must be visualized and felt – dynamic and interactive. The data, the insights and the people analyzing it must be trusted and knowledgeable in the eyes of the football talent.

The people in the football industry – the coaches and executives – are extremely intelligent and talented. Generally, they are not numbers people. They are feel people. They are often driven as much by instincts as sound principles.

Football is a relationship business with relationship-oriented people. The connection to this group of extremely intelligent and uniquely talented people can most definitely occur but it must happen in the visual realm. It must be more qualitative than quantitative. Football organizations have many details requiring intense management. Data and information is worth the management expense.

A certain play can gain 80, 5, 5, 5 and 5 yards in a game. The average gain for that play is 20 yards. The variance of the numbers is extremely high and the average value has minimal usefulness. The situation in which those 5-yard gains occurred is incredibly important. If this play is the third down and long call in a game (seven or more yards for a first down) then the play has failed 4 out of 5 times. This play was successful only 20 percent of the time.

As seen in Table1, data for the same play is listed in the situation in which it is run. Examine the down and distance combinations and the success of the yardage gained in each situation. The success is either yes or no but the degree of capitalization reflects the intensity of the success.

Table 1.

This concept can be tailored to reflect the personal philosophy of a team or specific play caller. In this context, the actual yardage on the play starts to have a decreased amount of importance and the amount of success increases in importance.

Analytics Departments in the NFL

Note: Research for this list has revealed many clubs that no longer have people in the analytics space. Examples include the Packers, Seahawks and Ravens. Others have just formally begun the process – most recently the Colts.

New England Patriots: Ernie Adams (Football Research Director) – Adams conducts football research, including statistical evaluations, and has done so for the Patriots since 2000. Adams spent more than 10 years as an NFL coach and pro personnel director. He also worked on Wall Street for several years before returning to the NFL when Belichick became the head coach of the Browns in 1991.[2]
Denver Broncos: Mitch Tanney (Director of Analytics) – Tanney is a former quarterback at Monmouth College, named the 2005 Midwest Conference Offensive Player of the Year as a senior. He also finished as a runner-up for Division III Player of the Year. From 2006-09, Tanney worked as an assistant coach at Monmouth while continuing his playing career in various professional football leagues. He graduated from Monmouth Summa Cum Laude in 2006 with a Bachelor of Arts in Mathematics and Spanish. He received his MBA from the University of Iowa in 2011. Before hiring Tanney, general manager John Elway said: ”I’m a numbers guy. I know the power they have, but we’re still trying to develop a role for it. I have a lot of resumes from people who want to help us put that together, but I would say we understand it can be a tool and we’re trying to develop what it will be and what it will do for us.”
Kansas City Chiefs: Mike Frazier (Statistical Analysis Coordinator) – Mike Frazier is in his fourth year with the Chiefs. He arrived in Kansas City in 2013 with incoming head coach Andy Reid after spending 10 seasons with Reid in Philadelphia. He assists with player statistics, situational analysis, as well as team and league-wide trends. Frazier initially joined the Eagles following his graduation from The College of Wooster in Wooster, Ohio in 2003. While completing his undergraduate degree, Frazier held internships with Smith Barney and Wachovia Securities. He also interned with the Eagles back in 2002 where he worked with Reid.
Cleveland Browns: Paul DePodesta (Chief Strategy Officer) – In addition to DePodesta hired away from the Mets, Sashi Brown was internally promoted to Vice President of Football Operations in January. Brown comes from a law background but has worked in the NFL for over a decade. Brown said: “A challenge for NFL teams has been finding people that can bridge the gaps between business and football operations. Finding synergies and ways to work with people on both sides are unique and can provide tremendous value.” He will have the final say on all roster according to owner Jimmy Haslam. [3] Also introduced to the equation is new head coach Hue Jackson who became the team’s fourth head coach in the five years Haslam has owned the team. Jackson said during the combine that analytics is: ”not going to drive our organization.” The applictaion of analytics at the scale and force by which the Browns have attempted to apply it will be interesting to track.
Chicago Bears: Matt Sheldon (Director of Analytics) – Sheldon’s coaching resume includes over 10 years in positions on defensive staffs with the Rams, Bills and Vikings and a year in Canada with the Alouettes. Before joining the Bears in 2015, he was director of sports solutions development with Zebra Sports. He is a graduate of the University of Minnesota’s Carlson School of Management and the University University of Wisconsin M.B.A. Program.
Oakland Raiders: George Li (Football Operations Statistical Analyst) – Before his hiring in 2012, he spent five years as lead researcher at the NFL Network and also worked one year as a researcher at ESPN. Li has an undergraduate degree in business administration from the University of California, Riverside.
Dallas Cowboys: Thomas Robinson (Director or Football Research) – Graduate of Northwestern University with a Master of Science in Predictive Analytics
49ers: Paraag Marathe (Chief Strategy Officer and Executive Vice President of Football Operations) – Paraag Marathe joined the 49ers in 2001 when coach Bill Walsh and exec Terry Donahue hired him. Prior to joining the 49ers, Marathe spent several years at the management consulting firm Bain \& Company, as a Senior Associate Consultant. He is a graduate fro
m the Haas School of Business at the University of California-Berkeley and he earned an MBA from Stanford University’s Graduate School of Business. Marathe became team president from 2013-2015.
Miami Dolphins: Dennis Lock (Director of Analytics at Miami Dolphins) – Iowa State University graduate with a PhD in statistics.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Karim Kassam (Analytics & Football Research Coordinator) – Kassam works in the scouting department under general manager Kevin Colbert. Kassam was recently hired away from an assistant professor of social and decision sciences position at Carnegie Mellon University. He is a Harvard grad.
Philadelphia Eagles: Alec Halaby (Special Assistant to the General Manager) – Alec Halaby is the special assistant to the general manager hired in 2012 who now holds the position of Vice President of Football Operations and Strategy. Halaby is a 2009 Harvard Economics graduate.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Tony Kahn (Senior Vice President, Football Technology & Analytics) – Tony Khan’s department takes an analytic approach to fan experience and injury prevention. Sources attribute the drafting of Luke Joeckel at #2 in 2013 as work with analytics. In May of 2016, it was announced that the Jacksonville Jaguars would not pick up the fifth-year option on Joeckel’s contract. He was recently moved from left tackle to left guard but knee surgery in October has landed him on injured reserve.
Buffalo Bills: Michael Lyons – Buffalo Bills formally created an analytics department in 2013 hiring Michael Lyons to head the department. Said President Russ Brandon:”It’s another layer of information. Really it is just another spoke in the wheel of providing as much quality in depth information we can to make. The whole concept will be bringing the analytics element to everything that we do.”
Indianapolis Colts: John Park (Football Research / Analytics) – Park came to the Colts in April 2016 after spending the previous four months as an intern in the NFL Player Engagement department. Prior to that he was a recruiting director at Rutgers. He graduated from Columbia with a Master of Science (MS) in Actuarial Science. Park has worked as an actuary, consulting with Alvarez & Marshal’s and PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Tampa Bay Bucs: Tyler Oberly (Manager of Football Analytics) – Tyler Oberly comes to the Bucs from Houston, where he wrote for a site called TheSidelineView.com. Oberly was once a speaker at the MIT Sloan Sports Conference. His topic dealt with a Player Efficiency Rating (PER) for the NFL. He is a University of Toledo graduate in electrical engineering with a minor in business administration
Atlanta Falcons: Todd Nielson (Football Research and Development)

[1] \footnote{http://www.forbes.com/sites/aarontilley/2016/02/06/how-rfid-chips-are-changing-the-nfl/\#74845b8a5ad0}.

[2] http://www.northwestern.edu/magazine/winter2008/feature/adams.html

[3] http://www.clevelandbrowns.com

The post The Fit of Analytics in the Game and Business of Football appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Football and Analytics – Part 2

Andy Guyader — Thu, 09 Mar 2017 16:54:53 +0000

The current landscape of football analytics inside the NFL is ever-evolving. The presentation of the discussion started on a previous past on BSL.

Here are some recent examples of football analytics in the NFL:

The Patriots and head coach Bill Belichick were early adopters of analytics. Ernie Adams has worked for the Patriots over the past 15 years in the area of data analysis. The late Browns owner Art Modell notably quipped: “I’ll pay anyone here $10,000 if they can tell me what Ernie Adams does.”(Costello 2015).
General manager Thomas Dimitroff of the Atlanta Falcons claims to be a strong proponent of analytics in several forms. He said: “We use analytics to eliminate as much guesswork as we possibly can.”
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Baltimore Ravens both announced efforts towards analytics prior to the 2012 season. Sandy Weil held the title of Director of Football Analytics for the Ravens before leaving the organization in 2015. The Ravens still have not announced his replacement, if one exists.
In January 2013, the Buffalo Bills announced the formation of an analytics department (Rosenthal 2013). President Russ Brandon once worked in baseball and said about analytics: “It’s starting to spruce its head a little bit in football, and I feel we’re missing the target if we don’t invest in that area of our operation, and we will. It’s another layer of information… a spoke in the tire.”
In 2013, then Texans head coach Gary Kubiak said: “We obviously use many statistics as we prepare for the draft…. I think it’s getting more and more involved. Obviously, there’s much better information for us nowadays than there was 10 or 15 years ago, and we need to use it.” As head coach of the Broncos, Kubiak worked with Director of Analytics Mitch Tanney on in-game decisions (Mason 2015).
In Januray 2016, the Cleveland Browns hired Paul DePodesta, the New York Mets Vice President of Player Development and Scouting, and named him Chief Strategy Officer. DePodesta is strongly linked to the use of sabermetrics as a front-office tool in baseball for several decades. The Browns have hired other high level executives with analytical backgrounds including vice president of football operations Sashi Brown.

In February 2015, an article by Kevin Seifert categorized each NFL team by their level of commitment to football analytics (Seifert 2015). The level of commitment varied widely and movement for teams in this area over the past two years has been slow. However, anything that can be clearly demonstrated to help a team win has a high probability of being utilized. Then most likely copied in some form by other teams. Data analytics and visualizations can help unify the efforts of the many groups within a football organization. However, it must be clearly demonstrated that data analysis in this fashion adds value for decision-makers.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

The Business of Football

Football is big business growing by the day. The game extends well beyond the 60 minutes guaranteed at kickoff. From high school football to professional football, the sport engages year-round spectators. The game itself, the gameday experience, fantasy football and wagering draw interest from a wide-range of people. Upwards of 74.7 million Americans will participate in fantasy football in 2016, spending $4.6 billion (Belzer 2016). A recent Forbes article puts the value of the Los Angeles Rams to be approximately $2.9 billion.8 That is double the value prior to the franchise’s move from St. Louis early in 2016.

The Super Bowl has become a world-wide event. It has become a de-facto national holiday in the United States. The most recent Super Bowl had 110 million television viewers. A 30-second advertisement during the game costs $4.5 million. Commercials in Super bowl I in 1967 cost $42,000.

The NFL now has games live-streaming on twitter. Games span from Thursday night to Monday night each week of the regular season. The NFL schedule held 12 games from 1947-1960. The number jumped to 14 from 1961-1977 and has been at 16 since 1978. Past expansion of the NFL leaves a current pool of 32 teams in eight divisions. Put simply, NFL football games are the biggest part of the business. Winning in this business is important. Jobs of coaches and executives are directly related to wins and losses. Head coaches in the NFL have been fired at a rate of just under 25 percent each year since 2005.

Football is an emotional business for those whose livelihoods are dependent upon the product presented on the field. The very public stage of the game represents only a very small amount of time. Organizations have multiple entities functioning on multiple time scales. From 45 seconds on a play clock, to a game every seven days, to the annual draft – NFL organizations must successfully coordinate work on different time scales and at different times of the week, month and year. Analytics and visualizations can help unify these separate entities. Visualizations have the ability to speak loudly to a wide-range of people – all within a football organization. The information will assist decision-makers in this passion-filled sport. Analytics can help limit the possible adverse effects that emotions have on the decision making process.

Fan Experience

Included in the business of football is the fan experience – analytics and visualizations can be used within an organization but they also can be created, measured, tracked and presented in a manner to increase the fan experience. That fan experience could be in real-time during a game where the presentation may be in a time history format. Or the fan may be interested in recalling past performances of two teams about to play each other. In both these cases, the analytics would be descriptive. By creating strong visualizations, the information moves away from the quantitative and into the qualitative as presented in GameMaps.

In the next installment, I’ll look more closely at the fit of analytics into the game of football.

References:

Seifert, Kevin. (2015). NFL Teams Are Most Reluctant to Take Advantage of Analytics.
Taken from: www.espn.com.

Costello, Brian. (2015). Meet the “black ops” man behind the Patriots’ success. Taken from: New York Post Website.

Rosenthal, Gregg. (2013). Buffalo Bills to start advanced analytics department. Taken from: http://www.nfl.com.

Mason. (2015). Broncos Blog, Taken from: www.denverbroncos.com.

Belzer, Jason. (2016). Thanks To Roger Goodell, NFL Revenues Projected To Surpass $13 Billion In 2016. Taken from: http://www.forbes.com.

The post Football and Analytics – Part 2 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Football and Analytics

Andy Guyader — Thu, 02 Mar 2017 00:32:51 +0000

As the NFL season begins its annual draft cycle, I’ll start a series on analytics and football. Predicting player success before the draft is big discussion and big business.

The game of football is flooded with emotion. Fans, players, coaches, executives and owners each have high stakes in a sport where extreme athleticism, speed and power create action seen nowhere else in professional sports. Football has a growing, world-wide audience, where large crowds gather to see elite skill, technique, focus and raw grit. For the many entities emotionally and financially invested in the game outcomes there exists a need for useful and accurate tools to help with the reflection, interpretation and tracking of on-field football performance.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Football will always be about what happens between the white lines. It is a game for playmakers and a business founded on personal relationships. Players and coaches must stay in the moment for every snap. They must live with the mindset that the next play is going to decide the game. Job descriptions on each play are extremely precise and well-coordinated but the game is not won by the team with players thinking before and during plays. Precisely trained reactions, elite athleticism and sharply-honed instincts result in play with confidence, flow and feel. Football is won with emotion and controlled aggression not cognition.

The game of football can be boiled down to this description: Move a man from point A to point B against his extreme will to be moved there.

American football began in the 1870s as a game similar to current-day rugby. It was a continuous flow game much like basketball. Walter Camp is credited with introducing rules in the 1880s that allow one team to maintain possession after the tackle of the ball carrier. Rules allowed the tackled player to kick the ball to a member of his team – thus creating a line of scrimmage. The introduction of downs and yardage followed quickly and in 1910, fourth down was added.

The universal truth in all of sport is that the scoreboard tells all. This is not more true than in a 16 game NFL season. A team’s win-loss record is its calling card. Preparation must be properly designed and implemented and proper execution must be achieved. Big investments make for big payouts on game day.

At the player level, the mindset is focused on the play and individual battles occurring on each snap.

For individual battles, there is a winner and loser on every play. Individual victories are vital building blocks for play, drive and team success. Each player is responsible for a small piece of the action. However, the outcome of the play is largely out of their personal control due to the heavy dependence on their teammates.

In a game, the emotions, pressure and distractions are immense. The ability to manage both success and failure is constantly tested. Victory is often reached through the successful avoidance of disaster. People experienced in the game know that often 10-14 plays will determine the game outcome. Winning on those plays is critical to success in the contest. The only caveat is that those 10-14 plays are very often not known before the ball is snapped. These plays have countless forms and they create the opportunities for team success.

The business of football is big and getting bigger. Revenue for the NFL exceeded $13 billion in 2015, up 50 percent from 2010.¹ Additionally, the NFL continues to market its product internationally. In 2016, four regular season games were played in two foreign countries.

This juggernaut is simultaneously both an exact and inexact science where success is ultimately measured by wins. An improved understanding and unifying interpretation of the game will benefit an entire organization and its many components. Football analytics will help football decision-makers become more confident, efficient and thoughtful. The proper exploration of data will open new possibilities for areas of thought and discussion.

The football world is about trust – personal and inter-personal trust. Titans head coach Mike Mularkey said of putting together the game plan each week: “It’s like a bunch of buddies putting this thing together who trust each other.”² For analytics to fit, football decision makers must trust and understand the actionable and insightful conclusions derived from the data.

Can analytics be developed in a such a way to help identify and or predict these plays and perhaps more importantly these players? We will continue to explore that issue next week.

References:

1 – Belzer, Jason. (2016). Thanks To Roger Goodell, NFL Revenues Projected To Surpass $13 Billion In 2016. Taken from: http://www.forbes.com.

2 – Kuharsky, Paul. (2016). Blog – Titans. Taken from: www.espn.com.

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