But, fans and writers often forget that Major League Baseball is a business. It is a business designed to make billions of dollars for a select group of people. Decisions are made, not for the betterment of the fans, but for the bottom line. And, while there is nothing groundbreaking in that statement, Major League Baseball often gets the romanticism pass with many of its decisions. And, just like our history, Major League Baseball’s longstanding indifference towards equality has lived under the surface. This past week, Major League Baseball finally chose something other than indifference.

Every April 15th, Major League Baseball celebrates the legacy of Jackie Robinson. The celebration of the life and impact of Mr. Robinson is definitely needed and should have a much bigger scope than just every player wearing the number 42 for the day. But, the celebration is also typical of a business doing a publicity stunt rather than truly promote what that day should represent. While Robinson played through unimaginable conditions, the sport did nothing to support him. Instead, it relied on individual players and teammates to maybe take a stand with Robinson. He was harassed, threatened, and, many times, even worse. Gradually, Major League Baseball became integrated. But, that integration wasn’t made out of a sense of fairness and equity. Instead, it was about keeping up with the competition.

If that last statement wasn’t true, how could Major League Baseball allow its teams to travel to the Jim Crow sections of the South and have players stay at different hotels? The entity—the business—of Major League Baseball did nothing about it. It stood by in indifference. It allowed its players to be harassed, threatened, and worse. It made no statement about what was going on in the world. They did nothing other than keep playing a game. If an industry is woven into the fabric of society, doesn’t it have an obligation to that society?

Even when Jim Crow laws were abolished, racism existed. Whether it was stories from players detailing issues in certain cities to Hank Aaron receiving death threats for having the audacity to break Babe Ruth’s home run record, the business stayed silent and did nothing to publicly support players and the communities from which they took their revenue.

It even took until December of 2020 for Major League Baseball to officially recognize the Negro Leagues as a professional baseball league, finally counting the statistics of Josh Gibson and the countless other players who were victims of systemic racism and prevented from playing Major League Baseball. And, even then, the Negro League statistics won’t be seen as equal as MLB is trying to figure out what to do with them. That means Josh Gibson will never be the All-Time home run leader or even be in the conversation as such. While there are likely many counters to this point, nothing can counter that the only reason this league wasn’t recognized a long time ago–remember, MLB commissioned a committee that recognized other leagues as professional in 1969–was pure racism.

Major League Baseball has always stood by in silence, even as last year’s events unfolded with the killings of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor, and Jacob Blake. The NBA, as an entity, became vocal in its protest, from court decoration, uniform names, and even cancelling playoff games. We all know that the NFL never does anything other than blackball players who have the courage to protest, but at least the NFL is consistent. They are there for the money. It doesn’t market itself as the National Game. But, Baseball sat quietly, only having individual players stand on their own.

Until this week.

When Georgia passed its new voter registration laws that are meant to block people of color access to voting, attention immediately turned to the fact that this year’s All-Star game was set to be played in Atlanta. In atypical fashion, Commissioner Rob Manfred acknowledged that he was in discussion with the Players Union about the All-Star game. On Friday April 2, 2021, just one day after Opening Day, Major League Baseball announced that it was moving the All-Star game out of Georgia because of the controversial law. Shortly after, it announced that it will take place in Colorado.

The selection of Colorado is not by accident. Colorado is often lauded for its access to voting, boasting one of the highest early voting turnouts and its stellar record against voting fraud. It was a move that actually stood for something and made a point. Georgia officials may not like it, but if we are to believe that their voting systems aren’t fraudulent now–as their Republicans leaders say–why are they changing a system that is supposedly working just fine? It simply doesn’t make sense. Republican Governors may not want to throw out ceremonial first pitches now, but the fallout is worth the stand.

This wasn’t a decision that was easy for Major League Baseball. It’s a point that shouldn’t be forgotten. Moving an All-Star game with all of the preparations isn’t easy. Add in all of the COVID protocols, the decision is even more difficult. Add in the fact that MLB is honoring Hank Aaron at the All-Star Game this year, the decision to move out of Atlanta is even more difficult. But, how could MLB honor Aaron in a place that just passed laws to suppress voters?

This time, Major League Baseball took a hard stance publicly. “Major League Baseball fundamentally supports voting rights for all Americans and opposes restrictions to the ballot box. Fair access to voting continues to have our unwavering support,” said Commissioner Manfred.

Major League Baseball doesn’t deserve accolades for this action, just like they didn’t deserve accolades for finally recognizing the Negro Leagues as a professional league. But, this is a monumental step in the right direction for the business. It finally took a stand on a long standing cultural problem. As an industry that markets itself on being the fabric of our society, it finally decided to join society.

This stance will test the industry because it is far from over. Systematic racism and repression will not end because of one All-Star Game. There will be more issues. There will be more injustice. Hopefully, this is the beginning of Major League Baseball realizing its societal responsibility and actually caring more than just about the bottom line. It’s doubtful, but this past week gives just a bit of hope. 

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This season will require teams to rely on its depth more than ever before. Teams won’t be able to rely on pitchers throwing 200 innings this year after having them only go through a 60 game schedule. Organizational depth always plays a part when it comes to overcoming injuries, but this year that depth will be needed for even the healthiest teams.

Predicting the outcome of a Major League Baseball season is always difficult and an exercise in futility. Even the best projection systems can’t measure injuries, trades, sudden growth, and sudden regression. But, hey, it’s fun and we’ll get right to it.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

American League East (Vegas Over/Under)

1. New York Yankees (95.5) Record: 99-63

The Yankees have a ton of questions in their rotation after Gerrit Cole and the health of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton will always be a concern. But, they have the best lineup in the division, the best bullpen, and the ability to add as the season progresses. And, they can expect big bounce back years from Gleyber Torres and Gary Sanchez.

2. Tampa Bay Rays (86.5) Record: 92-70

The Rays traded away Blake Snell, let Charlie Morton walk, and may be without Nick Anderson for the season. And, they replaced them with Chris Archer, Michael Wacha, and Rich Hill which doesn’t seem to add up. But, the Rays have more young arms ready to move in as the season progresses and it’s only a matter of time before we see Wander Franco, Baseball’s number one prospect make his debut.

3. Toronto Blue Jays (86.5) Record: 90-72

There’s so much to like about what the Blue Jays did this winter. They fortified an already potent lineup with George Springer and Marcus Simien. Vladimir Guerrero looks poised to have a monster year and Bo Bichette should take another step towards stardom. But, that rotation isn’t a playoff staff as is. They desperately need Nate Pearson to return healthy and make good on his promise. The bullpen behind closer Jordan Romano will keep them in contention all year, but the Jays will need to add if they are serious about contending. And, I need to get in an Alejandro Kirk is a good hitter mention.

4. Boston Red Sox (80.5) Record: 80-82

Everything about the Red Sox pitching staff  is ugly right now. It’s so ugly that even a mid-season return of Chris Sale won’t save their season. The offense, however, will produce, keeping this poor defensive team in games. It’ll be fun to see what true three outcome slugger Bobby Dalbec can do with 600 at bats and what Franchy Cordero can do with a starting gig.

5. Baltimore Orioles (64.5) Record 63-99

It’s all about development in 2021. The Orioles young arms will be gradually eased into the rotation. Uber prospect Adley Rutschman could make his debut at some point this year as should Yusniel Diaz and Jahmai Jones. The wins and losses won’t make it seem like it, but it will be a fun season in Baltimore as the future of the organization finally reaches the Major Leagues. And, how can we forget about the comeback of Trey Mancini?

American League Central

1. Chicago White Sox (90.5) Record: 88-74

The White Sox will miss Eloy Jimenez, but they have enough offense to win out in what should be a tough division. Expect regression from Lance Lynn and Dallas Keuchel, but the bullpen will give the White Sox just enough to get into the post season tournament. Of all the predictions, this one is the least certain as one could see this team winning 100 games. They’ll be a dangerous group in the playoffs.

2. Minnesota Twins (88.5) Record: 87-75

Nelson Cruz seems to be getting better with age and will, once again, hit 40 home runs. But, there is so much injury risk to the offense and the pitching staff outside of Jose Berrios doesn’t have a great health track record as well. The 162 game schedule will expose their lack of depth at times, ultimately causing the Twins to miss the playoffs.

3. Cleveland Indians (81.5) Record: 82-80

The Indians are a pitching factory that nobody seems to pay attention to. Shane Bieber is the known quantity, but look out for the development of their young pitchers. This year may be a struggle at times, but the Indians will use 2021 to build their young arms and be back in contention next year. If Triston McKenzie, Zach Plesac, Adam Civale, and Logan Allen all take a step forward this year, the Indians will surprise. But, that seems to be a year away.

4. Kansas City Royals (73.5) Record: 76-86

There’s a big part of me that wants to declare the Royals the surprise team of 2021. Their offense projects to be dynamic and the change of scenery could be exactly what Andrew Benetendi needs to rebound. The rotation is thin after Brad Keller and Brady Singer, but the bullpen arms should keep them in games. At the very least, the Royals will be the team nobody wants to play.

5. Detroit Tigers (69.5) Record: 62-100

Sort of like the Orioles, this year is all about development for the Tigers. Their farm system needs at least another year of development, but young pitchers Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize will get a year of Major League experience and exciting short stop Willi Castro will see if his tools translate to the Major League level.

American League West

1. Houston Astros (87.5) Record: 88-74

This could be the year the Astros miss the playoffs, but their young core offense is too good to ignore with Yordan Alvarez seemingly healthy, Kyle Tucker on the precipice of elite, Carlos Correa playing for a contract, and Alex Bregman looking to prove he’s still an elite. And, the pitching staff, if it holds up–a big if–is the best in the division.

2. Oakland A’s  (87.5) Record: 87-75

The A’s have a talented offense and play good defense. And, they always over achieve. But, the pitching looks thin this year and Trevor Rosenthal is no guarantee at the back of the bullpen. The A’s will contend all season, but unless some young pitcher break out, they look on the outside of the playoffs.

3. Los Angeles Angels (83.5) Record 86-76

There’s a scenario where the Angels offense carries a mid-level rotation to the playoffs here. With Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon anchoring the offense that has some good role players, mixed with some potential sluggers like Jared Walsh, the Angels will score runs. Joe Maddon will have to work some bullpen magic to keep the Halos in contention with that, at best, league average rotation.

4. Seattle Mariners (72.5) Record: 76-86

The Mariners will promote some really exciting talent this season with Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez likely making their debut soon. With Ty France, the return of Mitch Haniger, Taylor Trammell, Evan White, and Kyle Lewis, the M’s have an intriguing offense. The rotation, if healthy, can be slightly better than league average, making the Mariners a tough team to play and one that could stay in the race until late in the year.

5. Texas Rangers (67.5) Record: 64-98

The Rangers seem to be rebuilding, but it’s hard to see what they are rebuilding with. They’ll see if Nick Solak, David Dahl, Nate Lowe, and Leody Taveras can be everyday players. This season will be more about who they trade away during the year (Joey Gallo) and what they manage to get in return. It’s going to be a long season in Texas.

National League East

1. New York Mets (90.5) Record: 94-68

The Mets made the big splash with the Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco trade and still have the best pitcher in the sport in Jacob DeGrom. They play in the toughest division in the league, but a well rounded offense, a retooled bullpen, and an owner who will add during the season gives them the slight advantage.

2. Atlanta Braves (91.5) Record: 90-72

The Braves’ farm system keeps them in the race as it has good depth. But, a generally young pitching staff will be tested a year after the sprint of 2020. They’re good enough for a Wild Card, but unless the young pitchers Max Fried, Ian Anderson, and Mike Sorotka can stay healthy, they’ll fall short.

3. Philadelphia Phillies (80.5) Record: 86-76

The Phillies should have a top tier offense behind Bryce Harper, who somehow has managed to be a forgotten superstar. And, you could be optimistic about the rotation behind Aaron Nola and Zach Wheeler, but they will field one of the worst defenses in the league. That will cost them games and a playoff spot.

4. Washington Nationals (84.5) Record: 82-80

The Nationals’ have Juan Soto and Trey Turner, but the rest of the offense is sub par. Add in durability issues from the rotation and there is a recipe for a fourth place finish in the best overall division in the sport.

5. Miami Marlins (70.5) Record: 75-87

If only the Marlins played in different division. They are going to be the team that nobody wants to face, but they are a year away from really contending. It’ll be fun watching prospects Jazz Chisholm, Sixto Sanchez, and the bevvy of others play throughout the season. The future is bright in Miami.

National League Central

1. Milwaukee Brewers (83.5) Record: 90-72

The Brew Crew bring in an elite defense, an underrated rotation, and the nastiest pair of relievers in the sport. Run prevention will cover for a less than stellar offense and in the worst division in the sport will be more than enough to take the division crown. And, they have ownership that has proven to add pieces when contending.

2. St. Louis Cardinals (86.5) Record: 84-78

They made the splashy trade for Nolan Arenado and Dylan Carson seems to be a stud, but unlike most years the Cardinals’ pitching is in flux and could lead to their ultimate demise.

3. Chicago Cubs (78.5) Record: 77-85

The rebuild is on. The Cubs could be good enough for a .500 finish, but they could also be deadline sellers, trading Kyle Hendricks and whatever other player can be sold off. The offense will be exciting, but that pitching staff looks ugly.

4. Cincinnati Reds (81.5) Record: 77-85

The Reds lost Trevor Bauer and did some odd things on defense such as putting Eugenio Suarez back at short stop this year. It’s a shame as two years ago they looked close to being contenders.

5. Pittsburgh Pirates (58.5) Record: 59-103

The rebuild is in the ugly stage for an organization that seems to be perpetually rebuilding. But, hey, at least you can watch Ke’Bryan Hayes, Mitch Keller, and see if Bryan Reynolds can rebound. And, maybe we can notice that Collin Moran is a bit underrated.

National League West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (101.5) Record: 105-57

The Dodgers have everything a team needs in a post 60 game season. They have so much depth on the pitching staff that Tony Gosselin and David Price will function as bulk relievers and supplement with starts. They have one of the best players in the sport in Mookie Betts and, oh yeah, they added Trevor Bauer to the rotation. The best team in the sport just has to maintain health.

2. San Diego Padres (94.5) Record: 97-65

Now, that’s an off season. They made the bold move to lock up Fernando Tatis and added Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Joe Musgrove. The Padres will be the National League’s second best team. But, do I dare say that we are putting far too much on Tatis’ brief career?

3. San Francisco Giants (75.5) Record: 74-88

One of the least inspiring teams in the league. The farm system is rebuilding, but the Major League roster can’t compete. It’s conceivable that Kevin Gausman gets off to a good start and gets traded. The veteran laden team will keep them near .500 for much of the season if all are healthy, but that’s not a safe bet.

4. Arizona Diamondbacks (75.5) Record: 74-88

The Diamondbacks aren’t the worst team in the league, but they are not a contender. Zach Gallen’s injury definitely hurt, but he isn’t the difference between them contending or not. Christian Walker’s development is really the only thing worth watching. 

5. Colorado Rockies (63.5) Record: 58-104

Here’s the worst team in the sport and it starts from the top, down. It’s unfortunate because there is still talent here. The Rockies’ story will be if they can trade Trevor Story and the talented German Marquez and acquire some assets to build with. For the record, Marquez is one of the most underrated pitchers in the sport.

World Series

Los Angeles Dodgers win in 6 games over the New Yankees.

NL Awards

Rookie of the Year: Dylan Carson, St. Louis Cardinals

MVP: Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers

Cy Young: Jacob deGrom, New York Mets

NL Comeback Player of the Year: Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants

AL Awards

Rookie of the Year: Andrew Vaughn, Chicago White Sox

MVP: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels

Cy Young: Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees

AL Comeback Player of the Year: Trey Mancini

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There is a general rule of thumb that pitchers should regulate pitcher innings increases from one season to the next between 20 to 30 percent. While one could correctly argue that this belief hasn’t prevented many injuries, all 30 Major League teams are facing a dilemma this year. How can any team ask any of its pitchers to give them 200 innings when last year’s Major League leader in innings pitched (Lance Lynn) pitched just 84 innings?

The answer is simple.

You don’t.

All 30 teams will be testing its organizational depth and innovation as they navigate the year. More teams are investing in pitching labs and Biomechanics. Pitching technology such as Rapsodo are helping a bit. Places such as Driveline are using the science of Biomechanics to help train pitchers. But, none of that will make 2021 look like any semblance of a normal pitching season.

The Baltimore Orioles have the same exact challenge as the New York Yankees, the Los Angeles Dodgers, the New York Mets, and all of the other pennant challengers. The major difference is that Orioles get to do it without the pressure of a pennant race. While surprises could happen–and the possibility of so many pitching problems across the sport make them a little more likely–the general and realistic expectation is that this is a developmental year for the entire Orioles organization.

In some ways, this can make the pitching problem a bit easier for the Orioles as they can map out a plan for every single pitcher in the organization with safety at the forefront. Contenders like the Yankees will protect their pitchers, but when it comes to a playoff push, there is no doubt that Gerrit Cole is going to pitch as much as possible. In fact, it’s already been reported that they plan on him pitching 200 innings. The Orioles will not need that. But, they will definitely have to get creative.

Let’s start with some math. The Orioles will need to cover approximately 1,458 innings, assuming that each game goes nine innings. Of course, some nights their staff will only have to cover 8, some nights will be extra innings, and if they play double headers, games will only be 7 innings. But, let’s work with that number.

During the last two complete seasons–2018 and 2019–the Tampa Bay Rays led in innings pitched by a bullpen with 772 in 2019 and 824 in 2018. At first, the Rays were looked at as outliers as their bullpen pitched 200 more innings than the second most taxed bullpen in 2018. But, the copycat nature of the league took over in 2019 as the Rays relievers only pitched 10 more innings than its nearest competitor.

The Rays have been creative with their bullpen. They’ve made the Opener a strategy that many teams use. They’ve made bullpen games another strategy that more teams use. And, they do it because it keeps their starters healthier, taxing them less. One could see the entire league move to these strategies this year.

So, let’s assume the Orioles follow the Rays and dole out 800 innings to its relievers. That’s probably going to be the case for most teams. Many organizations are talking about a six man rotation and even doing some tandem starts. So, 800 innings to the bullpen seems realistic for a club, especially the Orioles. If they employ tandem starting, those innings will add up.

That leaves over 600 innings for the designated starters. That’s still quite a bit.

Here’s another big assumption: John Means makes 30 starts for the Orioles in 2021. The 28 year old southpaw is a prime trade candidate, especially if he pitches like he did down the stretch last season. But, let’s assume he makes 30 starts. On average, he gives 5 innings per start for a total somewhere around 150 innings. That’s more than 100 innings than he pitched the year before. But, considering his age and the lack of the long term importance to the organization, the Orioles could push him to surpass that. If he remains healthy, that’s a possibility. They are risking his long term health, but the question has to be asked: do they care? And, of course, if he pitches well, he will be traded. But, let’s use that 150 innings as baseline, which still might be too high.

That still leaves approximately 450 innings to cover with younger pitchers such as Keegan Akin, Dean Kremer, Bruce Zimmermann, and eventually–possibly–Michael Baumann, Zac Lowther, Kevin Smith,  and Alex Wells. You can also add the veterans on Minor League contracts as possibilities to eat some of those innings. So, Matt Harvey and Wade LeBlanc are still possibilities. Although Felix Hernandez had to shut down because of injury, a need for innings likely gets him some starts for the Orioles, even if he misses a couple of turns.

Akin and Kremer pitched 25.2 and 18.2 innings respectively last year. While they did pitch at the alternative camp before getting the calls to the big team, asking both of them to give 100 innings is a stretch. Unlike Means, they are a part of the long term success of the organization. But, let’s give both of them 100 innings each. Now, the remaining starters need to give 250. It is doubtful that any of the three veterans in camp can give 100 innings on their own, but is it unrealistic to think that they can combine for 100 innings? Perhaps, but that need will give them each every possibility to make the 26 man roster. Those innings are important and needed.  Then, the other 150 can be divided among the other young pitchers.

There is a lot to be excited about this year in Baltimore. Many young prospects will be making their debut. The fans get a full season of Ryan Mountcastle, the return of Trey Mancini, and get to see players like Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays fight to be Major Leaguers. Maybe Anthony Santander continues his upward trajectory. And, most importantly, there is so much young pitching to see. That will definitely be paramount in roster construction.

The 2021 season will necessitate that the Orioles will need to carry, at times, 14 pitchers on the roster and roll with a 3 man bench. Most teams will need to. They will have to employ tandem starts at some point this season. They will need to employ a six man rotation for periods of time. This isn’t unlike other organizations. But, the Orioles can safely give all of their young pitchers experience in a variety of roles. They can start them as openers. They can let them go longer in some starts. They can use them in tandem. Every pitch against another Major Leaguer is crucial for their development.

If the Orioles are smart, they can maximize experience without maximizing innings. Without the pressure of a pennant race, the 2021 Orioles can set up their bevvy of young pitching prospects to rebuild their innings totals in a safe, controlled way. How they deploy their young pitchers will say an awful lot about their Player Development Department and General Manager Mike Elias’ innovation. And, it will directly impact their ability to compete in 2022 and 2023.

Yes, the 2021 season has everyone awaiting the arrival of Adley Rutschman, Yusniel Diaz, Ryan McKenna, and others, but the season will most be remembered for how the organization handles its pitching development and how it divides up the 1,458 innings.

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Tradition has kept the game of baseball more or less the same since its inception. Sure, the players have gotten bigger and better, but the game still moves at a natural pace, it still has the mound 60 feet, 6 inches away from the plate. The bases are still 90 feet apart. Games don’t have a time limit. Sure, the sport has made changes during its history, but the the core of the game has remained the same. And, when changes are proposed, there is a large segment of the fan base and media that will fight to keep the game the same.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Manfred seems to be a realist when it comes to looking at the game. Strikeouts are at an all-time high. While home runs are up, the single is disappearing into infield shifts. Games take too long. With a lagging fan base and a year without a single fan in the stands because of the pandemic, Manfred has to take measures to make the game more palatable to the younger and casual fan base and keep the traditional fan engaged so that people want to spend a day at the ballpark once pandemic restrictions are lifted.

The Commissioner has already demonstrated that he isn’t afraid to play with the long standing rules of the sport. Last season, he instituted a three batter minimum rule for a relief pitcher, rather than allowing managers to make changes on a batter to batter basis. The game survived. For the return from Covid, MLB instituted 7 inning double headers (staying for 2021), a universal designated hitter (not staying as of now), and a runner on second base during extra innings (staying). The game survived.

Over the years, Manfred has used the Minor Leagues to experiment with rule changes before instituting them at the Major League level. For 2021, he has given all  levels different rules, allowing for an evaluation each change on the game. With a new collective bargaining process about to start, these new rules could have a major change in the sport in the relatively near future. And, despite the cries of tradition, the game will be much better because of the new rules.

Limits To Defensive Shifts

Perhaps the biggest change in the past 30 years has been the proliferation of defensive shifts. Popularized by Joe Maddon during his tenure as the Tampa Bay Rays Manager, there are few teams that don’t employ shifts during the game. The concept is sound as teams use data to predict where players will hit the ball. The success of defensive shifts can’t be denied. Teams are getting more outs. The sport’s offense is suffering because of that.

MLB will experiment at the Double-A level this season, placing a limit on defensive shifts. For 2021, “the defensive team must have a minimum of four players on the infield, each of whom must have both feet completely in front of the outer boundary of the infield dirt.” During the first half of the season, teams can put infielders on any side of second base as long as they remain on the dirt. But, interestingly enough, MLB announced that depending on the success of the first half, they reserve the right to enforce that there must be two defenders on each side of second base.

This seems like a rule that will be in the Major Leagues within the next three years. While one could argue that the shift is an essential part of strategy and that talented Major Leaguers should adjust their approach at the plate, the impact of limiting shifts will help raise batting averages on balls put in play. It will return the game to having more runners on base and being less reliant on home runs to score. It would be shocking if the shift stays in the game as it is the second biggest hindrance to offense.

Larger Bases

At the Triple-A level, MLB will be using 18 inch squares for bases rather than the tradition 15 inch squares. The thought is that the extra size will reduce collisions and injuries while also promoting more successful stolen base attempts because of the slightly shorter distances. The official rule also stated that it hopes to increase the success of ground ball and bunt attempts.

Again, the intention is to increase offense that isn’t reliant on the home run. This change will be interesting to follow as 3 extra inches doesn’t seem like much, but even if it slightly increases the extra base hit or entices more running, there’s an improvement to the flow of the game. But, the flaw in the plan is that teams don’t bunt and they don’t run often as those strategies are proven to be inefficient and cost teams outs.

Step-Off Rule

MLB will be using the High-A level to tweak a rule that the Independent League used in 2019. The change is that pitchers will have to disengage with the rubber before throwing to any base. If not, a balk will be issued. The Independent League noted that it saw a significant rise in stolen base attempts as pitchers were not permitted to use traditional pick off moves. This allowed for bigger leads and better jumps as base runners now had to simply watch for the pitcher’s back foot to disengage with the rubber.

You should be seeing the theme by now. Each rule is being designed to allow for more base runners, more small ball offense—not just bunting, but more singles and doubles—and for running. Eliminating the traditional pickoff moves essentially allows base runners free reign, rather than being controlled by threat of a pick off.

Pick Off Limits, Pitch Timer, And…Robot Umpires

The Low-A level will see an experimental rule with limiting the number of pick off attempts per batter. At the start of the season, pitchers will only be allowed to attempt two “step offs” or “pick offs” per plate appearance. And, there is a chance they experiment with just one attempt per batter. Obviously, this is to allow for a fast pace, more fluid base running, and more action on the base paths.

Another pace of play rule change is being implemented at the Low-A West level with a pitch timer being enforced. The timer will not only limit time in between pitchers, but with pitching changes, and inning breaks. The game has to find ways to shave off time. The clock is one way that could really improve the pace of play.

And, the most controversial one is being experimented with at the Low-A Southeast level where the strike zone will be called by a “robot umpire”. Home plate umpires will have the technology aid in the calls. The goal is to have a standard strike zone, taking one big part of the humanity of the game. Part of the tradition of the sport is the arguing between umpires, players, managers, and fans. Part of the lore is bad calls or adjusting to each individual umpire. But, does all of that outweigh the idea of knowing, exactly, what a strike is in each ballpark? Probably not.

So, What Happens At The MLB Level?

For this year, MLB is continuing the base runner during extra innings and 7 inning double headers. But, the future of the rules will be playing out the in the Minor Leagues. The game will be better off if most of these rules are implemented.

Banning the shift may take some strategy out of the game, but it will return the game to a more balanced state. And, one could make the argument that the strategy returns to the pitcher-batter conflict as now the pitcher can’t rely on an overloaded side of the infield to get outs. This seems like the most likely rule to be implemented, as soon as 2022.

The step-off rules help with pace of play, but the impact on running and seeing small ball seems negligible. Teams don’t like to risk outs. That rule change doesn’t seem to outweigh the risk of losing outs. However, Major League Baseball will likely limit pick off moves rather the give the base runner a complete advantage by making the pitcher step off. While maybe not immediate, it seems a like a rule that will, in some form, be implemented.

The biggest and most immediate change should be a pitch clock. That would have the biggest impact on pace of play while not hurting the strategy that goes into a Major League Baseball game. All of the other rules impact the actual strategy of the game and would have minimal impact of the pace of play. But, speeding things along always helps.

While the other rule changes and use of Robot Umpires could positively impact the game, they are more nuanced conversations. That will likely take years of research, analysis, and experimentation.

The tradition of baseball is being attacked. Finally.

Rob Manfred is going about these possible changes the correct way. He’s measuring their effectiveness during live games, not in theory. But, he isn’t doing at the expense of a Major League Baseball season. He’s battling a long history of hesitancy to change, but if the game wants to be a bit more relevant to a younger audience, it needs to accentuate its excitement of crisply played game that has singles, has good, aggressive base running, and flows quickly. Looking at the new rules in live game situations is the only way to have a game with all of those positives.

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More than any other sport, baseball lends itself to those sort of relationships with players. We clamor for the young prospect to come up and transform the organization into its next winner. We love seeing the elite athletes continue to amaze us. We love those Cinderella teams that not only have stars, but those role players who feel like they are one of us. We love the drama of a game seven. As much as we love analytics and embrace them, the stories and the drama of the game always bring us back to why we fell in love with it in the first place.

We can count the Orioles signing Felix Hernandez as one of those stories steeped in the romanticism of the sport.

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After a brilliant 15 year run as the leader of the Seattle Mariners, Hernandez found himself having to prove that he could still pitch in the Major Leagues at the age of 34. In 2019, his final year in Seattle, he had the worst season of his career, finishing with a 1-8 record, a 6.40 ERA (6.00 FIP) in 15 starts. He threw just 71.2 innings and allowed 17 home runs. More concerning, his fastball velocity had fallen to 89 MPH. He signed a one year deal with the Atlanta Braves and looked like he was making strides towards putting the disastrous 2019 season behind him. He wasn’t the “King Felix” of old, but the Braves looked set to give him a rotation slot during a season that they looked to be a playoff favorite.

Then, Covid hit.

Hernandez opted out of the 2020 season, leaving many to wonder if he’d ever see a Major League mound again. After all, he had nothing to prove. In 15 seasons, he won 169 games, pitched to a 3.42 ERA, compiled 2,524 strikeouts in 2,729.2 innings. He had a string of eight consecutive years of pitching more than 200 innings. He has a Cy Young Award on his resume and was a six-time All-Star selection. Other than a World Series championship, Hernandez, quite literally, has nothing left to prove or gain from the sport. His Hall of Fame candidacy would—and still will—make for an interesting debate.

But, Hernandez wanted to return for the 2021 season. Evidently, there was some (little) interest, but Hernandez chose to sign—or perhaps it was decided for him—a Minor League deal with the Baltimore Orioles. One of the greats of his generation chose to sign with a team that projects to be one of the worst in 2021, all in the name of having an opportunity to be a starting pitcher in the Major Leagues.

He won’t be making much money by his career standards. But, as he said during his initial press conference with Baltimore writers, he is playing for his legacy. He is playing because he loves the game and wants to continue to add to his Hall of Fame candidacy. 

The romanticism sometimes makes it really difficult to watch the aging athlete. We wait for glimpses of what was, hoping to see that one flash of brilliance that was once consistent domination appears. When those glimpses come, we get transported back in time; we were younger, in awe of this amazing talent. When those glimpses don’t come around as often as we want, we become protective over those feelings, wishing that the veteran would simply move on so he does not tarnish that legacy.

That’s where Felix Hernandez is, at the intersection of hanging on for a glimpse of what was and the opportunity to reinvent. Either way, the legacy of Felix Hernandez is set; he’s one of the greatest of his generation. Nothing can take that away. He can, however, only build on that legacy. And, in that process, can only be a positive for the 2021 Baltimore Orioles.

Forget Romanticism For A Minute

Beyond the romanticism of the Hernandez playing for legacy, the Orioles’ signing makes perfect sense in 2021 for both the player and the team.

At first glance, one could say that the Orioles are giving a rotation spot to a veteran who will not be around when they are competitive at the expense of a young pitcher in need of experience. In other years, that argument could hold, but not coming off the pandemic year, a 60 game season, and no Minor League development. None of the Orioles’ pitching prospects, just like the rest of the Major League organization’s, will throw much more than 100 innings this year. Many teams are going with six man rotations in an effort to monitor workloads. No young pitching prospect will be pitching an entire season in a Major League rotation. With the Orioles’ young pitchers on the cusp and with the current state of the team, the Orioles need to be protective of those arms. And, because they aren’t going to contend this season, they have the luxury to slowly bring the young arms on the 40 man roster like Keegan Akin, Dean Kremer, Bruce Zimmermann, and Michael Baumann along. All will need rest, all will have innings limits. Bringing in a guy like Hernandez who is motivated to prove himself and is not tied to the long term success of the organization is the perfect move to protect the long term health of Baltimore pitching.

That’s a really long winded way of saying that Orioles need innings in 2021. Their young guys aren’t capable of safely covering them this year. And, if they are going to bring in someone, why not take a chance on someone with a 15 year track record?

Yes, that recent track record isn’t stellar, especially 2019. But, a closer look at Hernandez gives a glimmer of hope of him being productive in 2021. While that production will not reach the “King Felix” days, it could be at least league average. And, that definitely has major value to any club in 2021.

The narrative on Hernandez is that he has lost his velocity. The narrative is quite correct as Hernandez averaged 95.8 MPH in 2005 as a 19 year old phenom. That velocity has decreased in every season since 2008. And, more telling, Hernandez has used his fastball less and less each year, going from a high of 65.9% usage in 2008 to a low of 39.6% in 2019. But, even in that terrible 2019, he posted a 79.9 percent contact rate, just one percent higher than his career average. He elicited swings and misses on pitches thrown for strikes 13 percent of the time, right in line with his career mark. But, he failed to put hitters away, posting just a 17.5 percent strikeout rate, which is far below his career rate of 22.4 percent. More troubling, his hard hit rate jumped to 40.5 percent, compared to 28.2 percent for his career. So, if he’s still able elicit swings and misses, why is he getting hit so hard and not putting batters away?

That sounds more like a process problem rather than a stuff problem. Aging pitchers often have those types of issues. Now, Hernandez did battle injuries too, but with decreasing velocity to the point where his fastball and changeup velocity are within 5 MPH of each other, his approach is in need of change. Last spring—pre-pandemic—he looked like perhaps he was doing so.

This transition is one of the toughest to make. Many pitchers can’t, but since Hernandez has always deployed an above average curveball and slider with his fastball-changeup combo, there is hope for him. A little more than a decade ago, a pitcher with a similar repertoire had to either adapt or leave.

Former Orioles starter Mike Mussina looked done as a viable starter in 2007. He posted the worst season of his career, pitching a career low 152 innings to a 5.15 ERA and showing the worst velocity of his career. But, Mussina came back for an age 39 season with a new approach. Although throwing just 86 MPH, Mussina upped his fastball usage to 50 percent, up slightly from the previous disaster season. More importantly, he utilized a combination of a slider and curveball for 44 percent of his pitches thrown. That usage forced him to ditch his changeup. The new approach and aggressiveness of a throwing a first strike, allowed Mussina to flourish during the last year of his career. Like Hernandez, Mussina wasn’t a hard thrower. Like Hernandez, Mussina had good control of his secondary pitches. And, like Hernandez, Mussina came into the season with nothing, but negative expectations from analysts. Mussina was able to adjust his approach and have success because he was an elite level pitcher. Felix Hernandez has the same opportunity.

One will look at the results of his first Spring training outing with skepticism. He threw 2 innings, 1 hit, 2 runs, 2 walks, and struck out 2 batters. He averaged just 86 MPH with his fastball. On the surface, it looks bad. But, a deeper looks shows some positives. He went pretty unscathed in the first inning, allowing zero baserunners and striking out Niko Goodrum with a breaking pitch. It was the second inning where he seemed to tire a bit, a normal spring training occurrence. He still struck out a batter—on a breaking pitch—but walked two and allowed that single to score both runs. But, he threw 34 pitches and came out of the outing healthy.

The results don’t look great, but former Orioles’ Pitching Coordinator Rick Peterson once told me to put lesser importance on what happens in the “push” inning of an outing. It’s part of the natural build up for a pitcher and often that damage is done when they’ve pushed into a new workload area. That second inning, after a year layoff, Hernandez was clearly fatigued and battling mechanics. And, one thing to keep in mind is that he didn’t use his changeup. We shall see if this is a sign of a Mussina-like change in approach. He certainly has the arsenal. He’s had a year off to heal and he still has shown the ability to miss bats, even in his worst year.

What’s the best case scenario?

Felix Hernandez becomes a better than league average or league average starter, eats some innings, and then gets traded for something at the deadline, allowing the Orioles to turn a Minor League signing into an asset.

Worst case?

Felix Hernandez can’t adjust and he makes 5 or 6 terrible starts and the Orioles cut him. That’s a few innings less that the young pitchers have to cover.

Practically speaking, this is a no lose for the Orioles. And, the numbers give a glimmer of hope that this could work out.

About That Romanticism…

Felix Hernandez is attempting to win at the Major League level with a fastball that wouldn’t allow him to be drafted by today’s standards. He’s not playing for money, having made over $200 million in his career and swallowing his pride to sign a Minor League contract. He’s playing for the love of the game. He’s playing for his legacy and to try to enhance his Hall of Fame credentials. There’s a purity in all of  that.

And, for us? We get to see if he can reinvent himself. We get to see if he can take us back to our younger days, even for one game, one batter, one pitch. We get to see one of the best of his generation, perhaps for the last time or maybe, just maybe, add another chapter to one of the best careers we’ve seen. He attempts to write that chapter in a Baltimore Orioles’ uniform. The great is now the underdog. And, that makes this version of Felix Hernandez so easy to root for. 

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But, this year is a bit different for the AL East. Each team is taking more of a calculated risk than ever before. When looking at each team, one can see a scenario where they run away with the division title. But, the opposite scenario is equally plausible. While the likely only sure thing is the Orioles finishing in last place, the Red Sox have the look and feel of a team that will hover around .500 if everything breaks right. While there is some talent, especially on the offense, this Red Sox club, as currently constituted, just don’t have the depth or the starting pitching.

It is clear that the other three teams have every intention of making the playoffs and have operated as such this winter. But, each of them have potentially fatal flaws. While that is generally true of every team, these three teams are betting big on upside. If they bet correctly, playoffs are likely. If not, there won’t be mediocrity. It’ll be worse. With so much uncertainty, the 2021 AL East looks to be the most fun division in Major League Baseball and the one in which teams are taking big gambles for big payoffs.

Yankees Bet on 2018

With Masahiro Tanaka heading back to Japan—and pitching poorly in the 2020 playoffs—the Yankees began the winter with Gerrit Cole and not much else in the way of a sure thing. In the past, the Yankees would’ve gone out and signed the top starter, in this case, Trevor Bauer. Instead, the Yankees are choosing to stay under the luxury tax threshold, rather than sign one of the top 10 starters in the sport.

Their plan began shortly after attending Corey Kluber’s showcase. Evidently, the soon to be 35 year old showed enough for them to offer a one year, $11 million contract. The risk, obviously, is minimal in terms of commitment. If Kluber can’t regain the form that made him a Cy Young Award winner, the Yankees are spending less than a qualifying offer would cost.

After pitching over 200 innings for five consecutive seasons, Kluber has experienced a rash of injuries over the past two seasons. However, most of those injuries could be attributed to bad luck. In 2019, he was struck by a line drive, resulting in a fractured arm. Then, during his rehab, he injured his abdominal and never returned, only throwing 35.2 innings. Last year, he was traded to the Texas Rangers and threw just one inning all season after tearing a muscle in his shoulder.

The Yankees are betting on Kluber’s long rehab and a return to form to solidify the second spot in the rotation. There are reasons to believe. He’s never been a hard thrower so even a slight decrease in velocity won’t force a change in his process. Relying on a sinker, Kluber has generated a ground ball rate of 44.7 percent during his career, a skill that an older pitcher tends to keep. But, he’s 35 and has made just 8 starts in two years. Pitchers age and Kluber has a lot of innings on that arm. The odds of him returning to Cy Young form are long. The Yankees aren’t paying him to be that, but they certainly need him to be a reliable, above average pitcher, something he hasn’t been since 2018.

As if not risky enough, General Manager Brian Cashman then decided to trade for Jameson Taillon. The 29 year old didn’t pitch at all in 2020 due to flexor tendon injury and UCL revision, a procedure he first had in 2014. 2018 was Taillon’s one full season in the Major Leagues and he showed that he can be a top of the rotation starter. In 191 innings, he allowed 179 hits, posting a 22.8 strikeout rate, a 3.20 ERA, and a 3.46 FIP.

Acquiring Taillon for four mid-range prospects, the Yankees are betting that Taillon is healthy and that his new found mechanics after studying biomechanics will not only keep Taillon on the mound, but help him to reach his 2018 standard. Taillon has already demonstrated his toughness when he came back from cancer and is candid about his new approach and why he was injured. It remains to be seen if his body can bounce back from that surgery, even thought he is taking quite a thoughtful approach.

With Luis Severino expected back midseason, the Yankees’ projected top four starters come with the highest upside in the league. Cole seems to be a given as the best pitcher not named Jacob deGrom. But, the rest—who combined for a grand total of one inning pitched last season—are risks. If Cashman bet right that the trio can pitch like it’s 2018 again, the Yankees are going to win the World Series. If not, it could be a struggle to win 85 games.

Rays Betting On Their Process And Bullpen

It’s seems disheartening to see the Rays trade away Blake Snell for three prospects and Francisco Mejia after their World Series appearance. It also seems disheartening that they have only added veteran Michael Wacha, re-signed Mike Zunino, and traded Nate Lowe for three prospects. All of these moves—and lack of moves—seem more like a team simply shedding payroll and rebuilding.

But, the Rays have a history fielding a flexible, credible roster. Offensively, their is depth and flexibility with role players such as Ji-Man Choi, Yandy Diaz, Joey Wendle, and Mike Brosseau able to play multiple positions and give ideal split matchups. Randy Arozarena may not be the monster he was during the postseason, but he looks to be an above average everyday hitter. Brandon Lowe may be one of the more underrated players in the sport.

On face value, the Rays seem to lack rotation depth. But, they are built different, using openers, having bullpen days. With a deep, diverse bullpen, the Rays will minimize their shallow rotation. And, the Rays always seem to develop more. With the consensus top farm system with players seemingly brought up every season, depth shouldn’t be an issue. And, they back that bullpen with an elite level defense. Last year, the American League champions ranked second in defensive runs saved.

Oh, and they have baseball’s top ranked prospect, Wander Franco, almost ready to contribute at the Major League level.

On paper, the Rays look like they are taking a step back. And, talent-wise, their rotation is taking that step back. But, the Rays are going to bet on their process, their bullpen, and their depth. It could result in another division title. Or, they could sink to towards the bottom in an off year. It’s important to remember that they dominated in a shortened season. Can they ride their bullpen and depth over the course of an expected full season? They are betting on it.

Jays Betting That The Rotation Can Keep Up

The Toronto Blue Jays have been a fun organization to watch this winter. In truth, they are where the Orioles want to be in about two to three years. They have a core of excellent young players in Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, and Lourdes Gurriel. They are supported by a core of Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez, and the recent free agent signings of George Springer and Marcus Simien. In short, the Blue Jays have an incredible lineup. They’ve fortified the bullpen by signing Tyler Chatwood and Kirby Yates to add to hard throwing Jordan Romano.

They have definitely had an exciting winter and they are a much improved team. But, they are quite similar to the Yankees in that they are betting on a rotation of question marks to support a high powered offense.

Hyun-Jin Ryu is the staff leader and is coming off of an elite 2020 in which he posted a 2.69 ERA (3.01 FIP) while compiling a 26.2 percent strikeout rate and minuscule 6.2 percent rate. While impressive, it should be noted that Ryu has only topped the 180 innings pitched mark just twice in his seven years in the Major Leagues. So, unlike the Yankees with Cole, the Blue Jays do have to worry about their ace staying healthy for the long season.

Like the Yankees, however, the Blue Jays are hopeful that the other four members can stay healthy and produce. There is a big reason to think Nate Pearson is in for big things in 2021. He’s a hard thrower, he’s had success when he’s been able to be on the mound. But, he’s topped 100 innings in professional baseball just once. Last year, he was able to make four starts before going on the DL with a groin injury. So, no matter what, his innings will be limited. The rest of the projected rotation—Steven Matz, Ross Stripling, and Robbie Ray—have all had previous success. All of them have an injury history. And, all of them haven’t been above average starters since 2018, just like their Yankees’ counterparts.

The Blue Jays have a lineup that can compete with anyone. They have a solid bullpen. But, their rotation, like the Yankees, could either pitch them to the playoffs or be the reason why they hover around the .500 mark. They are betting on the upside of their rotation and bounce back seasons from Matz, Stripling, and Ray. It’s a big bet to make, especially considering how talented their offense is.

Way Too Early Predictions

Heading into February and with Trevor Bauer still a free agent, it is likely things could change for any and all of these contenders.

The Yankees seem to be making the safer bets. Corey Kluber’s injuries have been more or less flukes. While he may not be an ace any more, his sinker can still get outs. He still shows swing and miss ability. Jameson Taillon’s new found knowledge of Biomechanics and resulting new arm action look promising. He’s motivated, still young, and has come back successfully before. And, the Yankees have something the Blue Jays and, to a lesser degree, the Rays lack: young pitchers who could contribute right away. Jordan Montgomery, Deivi Garcia, and Clarke Schmidt have all pitched in the Majors and do have high upside. And, they happen to have the best bullpen in the division to help limit the number of innings needed from that rotation. Of the three teams, the Yankees are making a less risky bet.

The Rays have a history of defying the odds so it is hard to bet against them. With their reliance on openers and different pitching strategies, they are most likely to overcome the odds. However, 2021 looks to be far too difficult a task. Their offense will likely not produce enough to support a staff that will be asked to do so much over the course of 162 games. They are betting on themselves and their process, which works most of the time. It just seems that it’s too much to ask this year.

The Blue Jays will be a fun team to watch this season. They will likely lead the league in runs scored and most power categories. But, they are making the biggest bet on their pitching. They have an ace lacking a health history. They have a young, promising starter who will be on an innings limit. And, the other three veterans are being asked to rebound from some scary seasons, while trying to avoid their recent injury history. They are making the biggest, most risky bet of the three teams because of a lack of a track record. There’s a high payoff, but an equal low if it doesn’t work.

Now, if one of these teams signed Trevor Bauer, they instantly become the front runner, but it seems more likely that they’ll just make a bet, hoping for everything to break right.

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It can certainly be argued that many of the above changes improved the sport. 60 games gave the regular season some urgency. While this will never happen, the thought of shortening the season from the traditional 162 should be open for legitimate debate. The designated hitter in the National League has been long overdue and will hopefully stay. Expanded rosters and ridding the sport of situational relievers are definite improvements to the game.

Sure, none of those things could stick for the 2021 season. Major League Baseball can go right back to its pre-Covid rules and function just fine. But, there is one change that must stick. One change has made the sport more exciting, more fair, and put a newfound importance on building a team for the course of a season.

That necessary change is the “no days off” playoff schedule.

First, there is the inherent excitement that playoff baseball brings. But, that excitement is exacerbated when a series is played, to its conclusion, in consecutive days. It brings a certain rhythm that MLB playoffs have lacked over recent years with the proliferation of travel days and complications with TV schedules.

That excitement and constant action is definitely an improvement and adds to the intensity of the series. The Rays and Astros certainly proved that. But, it is not the primary reason for a permanent change to this model. Consecutive days allow a series to played as if it were during the regular season. Roster construction is important to endure even a 60 game season, let alone a 162 game season. But, then, suddenly, none of that matters during the post season as starters are left off of playoff rosters because off days allow for teams to pitch their two best pitchers twice in a series and some times, like back in the day, their number one three times. Extra bullpen arms are added or an additional pinch runner rather than having to carry the team that fought through the regular season.

With the 2020 playoff schedule, team’s fourth and, possibly, fifth starters will have to take the mound. The roster used will reflect the one that got them through the regular season. It won’t be about two starters dominating a five or seven game series. That’s always been one of the post season’s great inaccuracies. Teams win the regular season based on the depth they have. One pitcher, no matter how great he is, can’t win his team a pennant. He can be a good reason why they win, but he is not the only reason. During a regular season, a starter makes approximately 30 starts, which is about 18 percent of a team’s schedule. In the post season, if a pitcher is allowed to make two starts during a five game series, he is making, obviously, 40 percent of his team’s starts. In a seven game series, it would equate to 28 percent of the starts. How is this reflective of the regular season? How is this validating who is the best team in baseball?

We are seeing this play out in the American League championship series. Through the first six games, each team has used five starters, with game six finally allowing the game one starter to take the mound again. Both teams are having to manage their bullpens with the idea that there is a game the next day. We are seeing a true representation of each team’s pitching staff. Each team had to employ an opener and unload the bullpen in game five. That definitely impacted game six, especially for the Rays. While trying to fight off a possible historic collapse (is it historic if it happened before?), Rays Manager Kevin Cash was forced to use 23 year old reliever Shane McClanahan for 1.2 innings in game six. McClanahan has no regular season experience yet because of the nature of playing for six consecutive days and having make sure he has everyone available for a decisive game seven, Cash used the rookie with the game already out of reach for the Rays.

The strategic elements as a result of this change could possibly see a transformation in how General Managers construct their rosters. With the opener becoming a popular strategy, teams could elect to essentially go with a four man rotation with the fifth day being a bullpen day with one long reliever becoming a bulk guy for three to four innings. That is essentially what game five of the ALCS looked like.

It could also end the traditional bullpen construction and roles that have become tradition. The Rays’ deployment of Diego Castillo in the fifth inning of game five didn’t work out, but the idea of using one of their late inning relievers in a critical spot is exactly what teams should be doing. The Rays illustrated this type of roster construction and deployment during the regular season as 18 different relievers finished games. 12 different relievers were awarded a save.This wasn’t a result of having a poor bullpen; it’s quite the opposite. By WAR standards, the Rays were the best group of relievers in the sport. With having to play seven games in seven days, managers cannot be bound to traditional roles. They cannot rely on the same relievers each game and use them in the same manner each game. Better strategic deployment of the bullpen is necessary. It forces decisions like Dusty Baker had with Zack Greinke in game four.

The universal designated hitter definitely made the game better in terms of having an actual skilled batter face a pitcher each and every at bat. The new reliever rules definitely forced managers to pick the right reliever to face three consecutive batters. While more than 60 games are needed, a shorter schedule did put an importance on each regular season game. Even, the expanded playoffs allowed for more excitement throughout the sport. While keeping all of those changes is desirable and would improve the product, the one change that should be non-negotiable is the playoff schedule. Watching teams having to use their whole roster, deploy it with the idea of tomorrow, and seeing the constant momentum changes has not only been a joy to watch, but it has put the emphasis back on true roster construction and who has the best, most complete roster. Isn’t the point of the playoffs to see who has the best team?

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But, the first two days of the playoffs showed just how wide of a gap there is between the Orioles and the rest of the division.

There was the Yankees pounding the Indians in game one and then outlasting the them in game two by plating 10 runs. Both games were a show of their power and their riches as Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gio Urshela had big home runs, while ace Gerrit Cole completely dominated during his start. There was the Rays, using their carefully put together roster, winning two straight over fellow division mate Toronto Blue Jays. Those Blue Jays have a mix of young, budding superstars on offense who now have post season experience. This wasn’t their year, but that roster is loaded with enough young talent to fuel a legitimate playoff run for years to come.

Those three teams are light years ahead of the Orioles right now and for the foreseeable future. While the Red Sox may have finished in last place, their current Major League roster, their injured list, and their farm system, in total, have infinitely more talent than the Orioles and, quite possibly, the Blue Jays. They are also willing to spend money.  The Red Sox won’t be division door mats for long.

So, yes, the strange 60 game sprint of the 2020 Orioles was both exciting and surprising. That shouldn’t be forgotten or discounted. The Orioles came a long way this season, made all the right trades, played well for most of the season, and, again, got a lot of their players some playing time.

All of this is positive.

It’s just that there is so much more to do.

The gap between them and the rest of the division is still pretty big.

And, quite frankly, 2021 doesn’t look like that it will be the year to significantly close that gap. There are still too many holes, still too many deficiencies. Yes, there is help on the way with prospects Adley Rutschmann, Yuniel Diaz, Grayson Rodriguez, Heston Kjerstad, and DL Hall. But, are any of those prospects ready for next year? Unless something goes really well, the answer is no, at least to begin the season.

There is undoubtedly talent and patience is a must. But, the Orioles have been selling the idea of patience for quite some time. It is time for the franchise to take a step forward. A .500 season is the next step, but, let’s be real. Can they achieve a .500 season with this current team in a 162 game schedule against a division that is full of legitimate contenders? Realistically, the answer is no.

While 2021 may not be a success in the wins department, the organization must continue to make moves that show that they are serious about contending soon. They can no longer accept losing in the hopes of a high draft pick. The farm system now ranks in the upper half. Collecting talent will always be important, but 2021 should be the year where moves are made with the idea of contending in mind.

General Manager Mike Elias can move the organization in the right direction by being aggressive on all fronts. It starts with sorting out the current roster. It ends with making a bold statement.

Sorting Out The Current Roster

As much as the 2020 edition of the Orioles created a lot of positive vibes, Elias needs to take stock of who will actually be part of the future. The answers seem obvious. An outfield of Santander, Hays, Mountcastle, and Mullins has high upside. With an open DH spot, all four could have significant playing time this year. The catching tandem of Chance Sisco and Pedro Severino are productive enough to hold down the fort until Rutschmann is ready, even if that means they are playing for the entire 2021 season.

The infield, meanwhile, is a mess. Fan favorite (ok, personal favorite) Hanser Alberto scuffled down the stretch, posing some doubt about whether or not he is an anomaly to all of the advanced metrics. He could be a non-tender candidate. Jose Iglesias has an option in his contract to be brought back. It was a magical 2020 for the veteran infielder, but his performance stands out for exactly that reason. It was the anomaly for his career, not the norm. The odds of him repeating that performance next season are quite low. For 2021, both veterans should be brought back as they are both cost efficient. But, if Elias can get creative in the trade market, neither should stop him from acquiring better talent. But, let’s assume they are brought back along with utility man, Pat Valaika.

The hope is that Trey Mancini can return and resume his production. He should be given every opportunity as the Orioles first baseman/designated hitter. Other than that group, the rest of the 2020 Orioles’ offense should be thanked for their service and properly dismissed.

The rotation of Alex Cobb, John Means, Keegan Akin, and Dean Kremer is a good start. But, the latter two are young, in need of an innings plan, and will have to learn to navigate a full season. Cobb is always an injury risk. John Means ended the season well, but will have to prove he is that pitcher we saw during his last six starts. But, the rotation, as is, is a solid start. The bullpen of Paul Fry, Tanner Scott, Dillon Tate, and, possibly Jorge Lopez is a nice foundation.

So, that’s 18 players coming back. That leaves eight Major League roster spots available. How Elias fills those will go a long in showing just how serious the Orioles are in contending in the near future.

Say Goodbye

Yes, Chris Davis is owed a big chunk of change. Yes, he is a good man in the community. But, first step into contention is to simply pay him to go home or elsewhere. His lack of production is a waste of a roster spot. Teams on the verge of contention cannot afford to waste a roster spot like this. It is time to move on. Once he retires, bring him back in a front office/ambassador type of role to acknowledge all of the good he has done for the community. But, his days on the active roster should be over.

Be Bold In Free Agency

One of the hallmarks of a team on the verge of contention is making a bold free agent move a year earlier than expected. This sets the tone for a young club. This winter, the Orioles can do just that. The market sets up pretty well for that for a couple of reasons.

First, spending across the league will be down. Every club, including the Orioles, lost quite a bit of money this year. Secondly, many clubs may choose to sit out big time free agency this winter with an eye towards next winter’s class that could include Francisco Lindor, Javier Lopez, Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, and Kyle Seager.

But, the Orioles need to land a free agent or two this winter in order to lay a foundation for future success. The pitching market looks most helpful. The Orioles should be serious contenders for Trevor Bauer, the 30 year old right hander. Yes, Bauer comes with a stigma of being difficult to work with, but his production speaks for itself. And, truthfully, that stigma is more about how he doesn’t follow a traditional workout plan and is outspoken. Put him at the top of the rotation and suddenly the Orioles have a legitimate rotation that is capable of competing with anyone. Yes, he is the best pitcher on the market so they will have competition for him, but he is exactly the type of pitcher who the Orioles need to build around. The returning pitchers are solid. Akin and Kremer showed promise, but neither are a top of the rotation pitcher. There isn’t a top of the rotation pitcher in the system. Good teams, winning organizations, go out and buy one. Bauer is that guy.

After Bauer, there are more middle of the rotation types like Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker, Marcus Stroman, James Paxton, and Jose Quintana. Any of them would be an upgrade, but none of the upside of Bauer. No matter what, Elias needs to add a pitcher who can immediately help. The days of bringing in veteran retreads like Tommy Milone have to be over.

The reliever market, as usual, is loaded. While a heavy investment isn’t wise, Elias does need a couple of veteran arms. Someone like Trevor May, Blake Treinen, Trevor Rosenthal, or Alex Colome would fill a much needed role in the late innings. While not a priority, Elias does need to fill out the pitching staff.

As for the offense, the gaping hole is third base. While the Yankees are expected to sign DJ LeMahieu back, he will technically be a free agent. With the priority of signing Bauer in mind, LeMahieu is likely out of the question. That would leave someone like Tommy La Stella or Justin Turner as candidates who wouldn’t require a long term investment at high dollars. Elias could also look at infielders such as Jonathan Schoop, Jurickson Profar, and Jonathan Villar. All three (two of which are former Orioles) would represent an upgrade.

Sure, the club could bring back Rio Ruiz or Renato Nunez, but why? There is no upside there. There is no statement there. Neither are even league average starters. And, truthfully, their production could be found anywhere. Bringing in a productive veteran not only upgrades the club, but it signals to future free agents that the Orioles are serious about contending and will add pieces. Signing Bauer, some bullpen help, and a couple of offensive veterans wouldn’t make the Orioles 2021 World Series contenders, but it would make the club viable, allow younger players to gain experience in a competitive environment, and set the foundation for the 2022 and 2023 seasons when the Orioles top prospects are truly ready.

Make A Bold Trade

Elias has accumulated quite a bit of prospects in his brief time as General Manager. Prospects are currency in that they could either help the organization on the field or help acquire talent. The latter is something that he could capitalize on this winter. The Orioles do not have a franchise player and, if they are serious about contending over the next five years, they are in need of one. Sure, they could wait until the winter of 2021 and try to outbid others for the services of a Francisco Lindor, but why wait? Why not offer the Indians some of this accumulated talent, acquire Lindor, sell him on the franchise and city, and pay him. With the volatility of the free agent market, players are more likely to take a guaranteed offer. We saw that this season with Mookie Betts and the Dodgers. Why can’t the Orioles do the same? If the organization is serious about contending for the long term, why not get the franchise cornerstone now?

Closing Thoughts

Of course, all of this is easier said than done. Elias has a long history to erase when it comes to the Orioles lack of spending. But, now is the time. This winter is important to the franchise and it’s long term success. The dark days of this painful rebuild should be coming to a close. It is now time to be bold, add real talent, and then hope that the top prospects can truly round out the roster. The gap between the Orioles and the rest of the division is definitely wide, but the organization to close that gap with a bold winter. This is the true test of Elias and his rebuild plan. Hopefully, he has the backing of ownership to spend. And, more importantly, hopefully, he has the wherewithal to take the next steps now. If not now, when?

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This season was never about the wins and losses. It truly wasn’t about the playoffs, although it was quite thrilling to see the Orioles in the playoff hunt and nipping at the Yankees’ heels for a period of time. This season was about giving players experience, giving them a chance to prove they can be a part of the next Orioles’ run. In that context, this season was a resounding success.

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And, there were certainly some great performances this year. A group of players showed enough to be included in 2021’s plans. Some showed enough that will garner them some interest from other teams, either as a free agent or a trade. And, while some showed that they won’t be in future plans, let’s stay positive and acknowledge all of the good of 2020.

Most Valuable Offensive Player

There are a couple of candidates who could receive this “award”.  Anthony Santander was one of the hottest hitters in the sport for a period. But, an oblique strain ended his season in early September. Still, his .261/.315/.575 line with 13 doubles, 1 triple, 11 home runs, and 32 RBI in 37 games is quite impressive. In fact, as of this writing, he still leads the Orioles in RBI and is second in home runs and doubles. At minimum, the 25 year old switch hitter has earned the every day right field job for 2021 and will be a potent bat in the middle of the order.

Jose Iglesias deserves some love as well as the 30 year flirted with a .400 season before missing time as well. In 36 games, the veteran has hit .377/.406/.515 with 15 doubles, 1 home run, and 21 RBI. His season is remarkable, even in this truncated version that was further truncated with injuries.

And, yes, one can make a case for Hanser Alberto. Sure, he is slumping and the slash line doesn’t look as good as it did a few weeks ago, but he’s one of only two Orioles to appear in 50 games (again, as of this writing), he leads the team in runs scored, is second in doubles, and is still slashing a respectable .286/.308/.394 line. There is something to be said about a player performing in an everyday role and actually maintaining his presence in the lineup.

But, the true most valuable offensive player wasn’t even on the Opening Day roster. That was purely procedural as it had nothing to do with talent. Since the day Ryan Mountcastle has stepped foot on a Major League field, he has hit. Through 30 games, he is hitting .314/.373/.505 with 5 doubles, 5 home runs, and 21 RBI. His 10 walks are fourth highest on the team in his limited time. It is easy to say that it is only a 30 game sample. It’s also a very true statement. But, when judging through the lens of a 60 game season, Mountcastle’s half season has been nothing short of sensational. Aside from the injection of offense, Mountcastle’s arrival and his performance meant much more to the organization as he can truly be considered someone who can fill a middle of the order spot for the foreseeable future.

Most Valuable Starting Pitcher

This is another tough one as one could argue that Tommy Milone’s six game run and prospects he’s bringing back to the organization as a result of his trade to Atlanta make him the most valuable starting pitcher. But, let’s keep it on the field. You could look at the young arms like Keegan Akin who has made 7 appearances, including 5 starts. In 22.2 innings, he’s allowed 22 hits, 9 walks and struck out 31 batters. It’s an impressive start.

Dean Kremer has made just 3 starts, but the overall results are quite impressive. In 16 innings, he’s allowed just 8 hits, and has struck out 20 batters. He has shown control problems as his 9 walks indicate. But, there is promise.

But, promise doesn’t necessarily mean valuable, at least yet. The most valuable O’s starter might just have been Alex Cobb. He took the ball 9 times, throwing 45.1 innings, giving up 46 innings, walking 16, and striking out 34 batters. While his 5.10 FIP  and 4.76 ERA are lackluster and pedestrian, the fact that he took the mound when called up, averaged about 5 innings per start, and demonstrated health is quite valuable on a number of fronts. With one more year remaining on his contract at a $15 million price tag, Cobb does become a tradable pitcher. That $15 million isn’t all that high considering recent deals handed out to the likes of Kyle Gibson. League average pitching is going to cost clubs around $12-$15 million per season. Contenders looking to fill out their rotation will be interested. And, even if the Orioles don’t find a deal in the winter, they could do worse than having Cobb start the year in the rotation and trade him at next year’s deadline.

While it flies in the face of the idea of conventional value, Cobb gave nearly league average results, improved his trade value, and provided a consistent veteran presence this year.

Most Valuable Relief Pitcher

This is another difficult one as the Orioles traded their two best relievers at the deadline. Mychal Givens gave 12 stellar performances, striking out 19 batters in 13 innings. His trade to the Rockies may also be another reason to give him the most valuable designation as the Rockies once again clearly overpaid for a relief pitcher.

Hunter Harvey is an exciting pitcher, but he didn’t appear in enough games for consideration. But, his 7.2 innings, allowing 6 hits, 2 runs, 2 walks, and 5 strikeouts show promise as a future closer. Dillon Tate also showed promise in his 12 appearances that saw him strikeout 14 batters in 16.2 innings.

So, without a slam dunk candidate, the most valuable relievers—yes, relievers—are the pair of southpaws, Paul Fry and Tanner Scott. Scott leads the team with 24 appearances, pitching 20.1 innings, allowing just 10 hits, 3 runs, 10 walks (not good), and striking out 22. His 3.57 FIP is still solid, but it does show a little bit of luck and some good defense helped him.

Fry appeared in 21 games, pitching 20.2 innings, allowing 21 hits, 6 runs, 8 walks (also not good), and striking out 26. Fry’s 3.85 FIP is also solid, but his 2.61 ERA also demonstrates his luck and defensive support. Both lefties would be better served as specialists, but with the new rules, they were forced to pitch to three batters per appearance. Both did quite well in that role.

Best Free Agent Signing

Ok, Pat Valaika was a waiver wire selection (twice), but he still gets this recognition here. Appearing at every infield position and both corner outfield spots, the 27 year old utility man managed to play in 49 games and accumulate a solid, but unspectacular line of .248/.287/.442 with 4 doubles and 7 home runs. While Jose Iglesias had an amazing season as a free agent addition, it was Valaika who filled in for him, filled in for everyone needing a day off, and provided the fourth highest home run total on the team.

Best Rebound Season

The talk at the beginning of the season was whether or not Chris Davis would be able to bounce back from some historically poor seasons. He did not, but another player definitely capitalized on playing time despite being cast aside at Spring Training and Summer Camp. Cedric Mullins was given a starting job in 2019 and simply looked overmatched. In 22 games, he posted a .094/.181/.156 line. His weak contact and failure to get on base got him shipped to the Minor Leagues and seemingly banished. When Austin Hays went down this season, Mullins was given an opportunity and he seized it. Through 43 games, he is hitting .275/.326/.367 with 3 doubles, 1 triple, 2 home runs, and 7 stolen bases. In addition to playing an excellent defensive center field, Mullins leads the Major Leagues in bunt hits. His rebound has put him back in the Major League roster picture as his defense, his speed, and his bunting ability can play a role on a contending club as a fourth or fifth outfielder.

Most Promising End To 2020

John Means was a question mark heading into the season. Many wondered—like me—whether or not his stellar 2019 season was a fluke. And, judging by his final line of 9 starts, 37.2 innings, 35 hits, 11 home runs allowed, 6 walks (that’s really good), and 33 strikeouts with a 5.02 ERA, it certainly looks like it was. But, a closer look gives much more hope. Means’s first five starts were, well, awful. In 5 starts, he pitched 14.2 innings, allowed 16 hits, 3 walks, 11 strikeouts, and 6 home runs with an 8.59 ERA. But, then September happened. After failing to pitch into the fifth inning in any of his first 5 starts, he concluded with four consecutive starts of pitching into the 6th inning. Means had 4 starts in which he pitched 23 innings, allowed 19 hits, 3 walks, and struck out 22 batters. He did give up 5 home runs, but pitched to a 2.74 ERA. Means will still enter 2021 with questions, but his month of September is a nice turnaround and one that will ease the mind of Orioles’ management and fans.

Players We Want To See More Of In 2021

Of course, the obvious answer is Mountcastle, but we already know what he’s about. The two most exciting players that the Orioles need to see more of is Austin Hays and Hunter Harvey. Both were somewhat limited with injuries, but both also showed quite a bit of promise. Hays started terribly, but rebounded nicely before missing a chunk of time. In 28 games, he’s posted a .240/.306/.310 line while playing an above average center field. There’s definitely talent; he just needs time on the field. Harvey showed in his 7 innings that he has closer stuff. The hope is that a healthy offseason, a full camp, and defined role will allow Harvey to tap into his full potential.

With the playoffs beginning next week, the Orioles front office will get to work on constructing the roster for 2021. There is promise to build off of. The young players who made their way to the big club showed talent and the ability to perform at the Major League level. Undoubtably, there will be quite a bit of change. But, many of the 2020 performances will have a profound impact on the 2021 Baltimore Orioles. We acknowledge that today and then look to build on that moving forward.

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The club found out that Anthony Santander is, indeed, improving. It saw two of its young arms, Keegan Akin and Dean Kremer have success. Cedric Mullins has put himself back on the radar as a functional player. And, of course, Ryan Mountcastle has looked like a cornerstone player in his brief time in the Major Leagues.

With the final the 13 days, the Orioles will try to make the miracle run. Successful or not, the fact that they are playing meaningful games is a credit to the club. Their performance has given legitimate hope that 2021 can be a breakthrough.

Before some Orioles notes, Major League Baseball made a historic announcement regarding the 2020 playoffs.

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Neutral Site For The World Series

As Major League Baseball heads into the homestretch, the League office announced some changes to its playoff system for this season. In a season that has been seemingly made up on the fly, making additional changes just 12 days from the start of the first round is pretty fitting.

MLB announced that best of three opening round series will be held exclusively in the higher seed’s ballpark. Obviously, the goal is to limit travel and exposure. Then, the playoffs take an interesting, if not historic turn. The American League clubs will be in California, playing at Dodgers Stadium and Petco Park. The ALCS will be held in Petco as well. The National League clubs will head to Texas where series will be held in Houston and the Rangers’ new park, Globe Life Park. The NLCS and World Series will also be played in Globe Life Park.

Major League Baseball is trying to create a sort of bubble for the playoffs. But, there really isn’t a true bubble like the NBA. The sport is simply containing its clubs in the hopes of limiting exposure and avoiding a breakout among its remaining teams. While it’s a flawed plan, it is the best possible plan that could be enacted. Limiting travel and keeping teams in a hotel are important than giving any team a home field advantage. There is a still the risk of an outbreak, but this plan is far safer than going with the traditional travel schedule.

Can We Say Mountcastle Is A Cornerstone?

While waiting for the Orioles to call up Ryan Mountcastle, fans were excited. But, there was a caveat to all of the talk of Mountcastle’s arrival; everyone pointed out that he wasn’t a highly touted prospect among all of the lists and scouting pieces. The only thing that most could agree on is that he can hit.

And, he has certainly done that thus far. We could rattle off statistics that show just how well he’s performed and they are certainly all there. The .350/.411/.588 slash line with 4 doubles, 5 home runs and 18 RBI say quite a bit in his 23 games. The 8.9 percent walk rate says even more about his approach and his sustainability as a middle of the order hitter. 

But, there are other statistics that can point to this merely being a hot start. The .411 BABIP is certainly unsustainable. The 22.2 percent strikeout rate is higher than his Minor League career. That walk rate could be an aberration as he’s never posted a walk rate higher than 6.1 percent. Last year, at Triple-A, it was just 4.3 percent. Despite the high walk rate this season, it should be noted that he is swinging at 58.4 percent of all pitches, compared to the MLB average of 45.7 percent. Maybe more alarming is that he’s swinging at 41.1 percent of the pitches outside of the strike zone, compared to the MLB average of 30.4 percent. He does this while making contact at the league average rate. A super aggressive approach combined with an average contact rate could spell long term trouble without adjustments.

Most notably, it is just 23 games. At some point, during a regular season, every hitter struggles. Every hitter has to adjust. Ryan Mountcastle will not experience that this season. The League will adjust its approach after seeing Mountcastle become this force right away. How he adjusts to failure for the first at the Major League level will be telling. Will he adjust his uber-aggressive approach? Will he have to? Those are the things that are the 2021 version of Ryan Mountcastle will have to likely adjust.

It is difficult to make any sort of logical claim based on 23 games. But, this section began with a question that deserves an answer. We can’t say it just yet. But, based on the start, I want to say it. He hits the ball hard. His adjustment to Major League pitching has been seamless and he’s just 23 years old. There are so many signs that point to perennial all-star and middle of the order hitter for the Orioles for quite some time. I’m all in on him being a cornerstone.

Small Ball Oddity

It is an interesting note that the Orioles lead the Major Leagues in bunt hits with 14. The next closest, the Colorado Rockies, have 8. With a front office that is definitely focusing on analytics, the idea of bunting should be something of a foreign concept to this club. But, the emergence of Cedric Mullins may have something to do with that as Mullins leads the Major Leagues with 8 bunt hits. Hanser Alberto is fourth in the league with 4 bunt hits. The bunt has been a dying art in the sport, but, perhaps, it may become a weapon once again. With teams focused on shifts, analytics may shift as well. Bunting for hit may become a thing again.

Mr. DJ

Despite the unsteady September, Orioles’ hitters are certainly showing some power. None more than DJ Stewart’s 7 home runs, which lead the American League for the month and rank second in all of Major League Baseball. Stewart played in just 8 games combined in July and August, putting up a 0 for 14 with three walks and eight strikeouts. But, his 12 September games have been quite different, hitting .333/.435/.897 with 1 double and 7 home runs in just 46 plate appearances. This looks like a really nice hot stretch to end the season, no more, no less. Sure, Stewart has shown a bit of power in the Minors (he hit 21 home runs in 2017 at double-A), but nothing as consistent or as prolific as this. The 26 year old could be a fifth outfielder in the long term, but there is nothing to read into this hot stretch other than enjoying it.

Akin Rebounds

After failing to complete an inning against the Yankees in his last outing, Akin rebounded with 5.1 innings, allowing 3 hits, 0 earned runs, 1 walk, and 9 strikeouts while throwing a career high 93 pitches against the Atlanta Braves. The 25 year old southpaw has done well in his first turn as a Major League pitcher. Save for the 4 walks against the Yankees on September 5th, he has walked two or fewer batters in each appearance. While his pitch efficiency leaves a bit to be desired, Akin looks like a solid middle to backend of the rotation pitcher. He should have a spot right away and be given an opportunity to show that he can grind through a full season.

Hanser

Last night’s third inning RBI double was Hanser Alberto’s first extra base hit in 19 games. While struggling of late and seeing his average slip under .300 for the first time this season, he still leads the American League with a .396 batting average in the seventh inning or later. Hey, he’s struggling so we have to look at some sort of positive.

Outfield Defense

Just a quick observation…The outfield of Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins, and (when he’s healthy) Anthony Santander could be one of those great defensive outfields.

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