As usual, the NFL Draft allows every fan to have just a little bit of hope. Even if their team went 2-14 last year or their favorite organization is in upheaval. Or, conversely, if their squad is coming off a playoff run.

This week will allow optimism to bloom. Until then, here are some AFC storylines heading into draft week.

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How will Urban Meyer handle his first draft?

No matter what you think about Jacksonville’s decision to hire Urban Meyer, after spending three years years away from the sidelines and having spent his career in college, it’s clear that Meyer has never been through this process before. At least from the NFL side.

When the draft begins, he says he’ll be relying on his coordinators, Darrell Bevell on offense and Joe Cullen on defense, for help, and GM Trent Baalke will obviously play a large role in figuring out who the Jaguars will select. There’s almost no doubt that Jacksonville will take Trevor Lawrence at No. 1 overall. So, at least that part should be easy for Meyer.

But after that, the Jaguars will have the No. 25 pick, two picks in the second round, another in the third round and two more in the fourth. Meyer said he’s learning how to trust his squad’s draft board. We’ll see just how much he really trusts it this week.

What’s happening with Deshaun Watson?

If you were shocked by the allegations about Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson, you probably weren’t alone. Now, the Texans have to figure out what to do about their star who’s been accused of sexual misconduct by more than 20 women. 

For now, the Texans are keeping Watson on the roster, even as companies who used to endorse him (Nike, Beats By Dre and Reliant Energy, for instance)) have severed their relationships with him. The NFL also has kept him off the Commissioner Exempt list, so technically, he could play if the season began tomorrow.

But at this moment, it seems unlikely that Watson will be allowed to take the first snap of the 2021 season. Backup Tyrod Taylor could be one replacement in Houston, and even though he’s not a superstar and probably never will be, he’s been serviceable when called to be an NFL starter. The Texans don’t pick until the third round (No. 67 overall) of the draft, so finding a game-changing signal-caller who would immediately step into the starting role would be a challenge.

Otherwise, they could look to a weak free agency class that includes Blake Bortles, Nick Mullens and Robert Griffin III. Also, as has trade requests represent, Watson wants out of Houston anyway.

As for the Texans’ feelings on the matter, well, they’re not saying. As GM Nick Caserio recently said, when asked about Watson, “If you want to speculate, you should probably go buy Bitcoin.”

Who can be the next Tom Brady?

After missing the playoffs for the first time in 12 years and sustaining a losing record for the first time in 20 years, the Patriots will continue trying to find Tom Brady’s successful successor. It didn’t happen in 2020 with Cam Newton, who rushed for 12 scores but who only throw eight touchdowns against 10 interceptions.

So, where does New England stand with finding a quarterback for next seasons? Newton will return for 2021, but so far, he hasn’t shown he can be a long-term solution.  Jared Stidham hasn’t done well enough (at least not yet) for the team to take a chance on him to be the full-time starter. At least one report thinks the Patriots are interested in University of Florida quarterback Kyle Trask (New England picks No. 15 in the draft), and others have predicted the team could trade up to get a quarterback in the top 10.

But others speculate that the team isn’t going to overextend itself in the draft to get a quarterback it’s not completely sure about. For Belichick, it’s all about value.

“Who do you move up for? Who do you take if you stay and what players are on the board?” he said. “If players are on the board that you feel like don’t add a lot of value or maybe they’re not the kind of fit for your team that you’re looking for in that particular situation, then maybe you say, ‘OK, maybe we consider moving back.’ There’s certainly been many of times where we felt like we were able to get the same player or comparable value at a lower point in the draft so we moved backwards.”

So, what does that tell you? As with many things that emanate from Belichick’s mouth, he’s not going to make it easy for you to figure it out.

The Bengals bungled their uniform release, through no fault of their own

OK, that’s not entirely true. But read this story from The Athletic’s ($) Paul Dehner. He breaks down what happened when, a month before the Bengals were to release their new unforms to the public, somebody leaked online what was apparently the new-look jersey and pants. It details how the Bengals front office responded to what was basically a PR nightmare.

“You just go into that mode of when your brain knows you should be so angry and emotional, but you are like, ‘I don’t have time for this,’” Bengals director of strategy and engagement Elizabeth Blackburn told Dehner. “Just buckle down and work through this problem to make the best out of the solution. That’s all you can do. It’s a little minicourse on leadership training and crisis management.”

The Steelers coaching consistency

As you probably know, Mike Tomlin has signed a contract extension that will last through the 2024 seasons. That means, assuming the Steelers coach makes it to the end of the extension, there still would be only three Pittsburgh head coaches since 1969 (Chuck Noll, Bill Cower and Tomlin). 

For comparison’s sake, there have been 10 Bengals non-interim coaches since 1969, 11 Broncos coaches, 14 Lions coaches and 16 Browns coaches.

It’s pretty amazing consistency from one of the best franchises in NFL history.

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Watt’s brother, Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt, posted a GIF of The Rock motioning with his hand to come forward. Bills receiver Steffon Diggs wrote, “Just hear me out real quick big fella” with a mischievous smile emoji. And Cowboys defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence used his own emoji to implore Watt to give him a call.

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BetOnline.ag also released odds on Monday, and afterward, about half of the NFL’s fans could feel hope that Watt maybe, sorta, kinda had a chance of signing with their squad. After all, some of these teams, if they could sign Watt, would immediately increase their chances of putting together a potential Super Bowl contender.

Remember this, though: Watt has missed 32 games in the past five years, and solid (or better) defensive ends like Shaq Barrett, Jadeveon Clowney and Bud DuPree also could be hitting the free agent market, potentially watering down the feeding frenzy Watt’s availability might normally provide.

Here are the odds of teams signing Watt, according to the online sportsbook:

Pittsburgh Steelers                    5/2

Buffalo Bills                              4/1

Green Bay Packers                   4/1

Cleveland Browns                     5/1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers             11/2

Baltimore Ravens                      9/1

Indianapolis Colts                      10/1

San Francisco 49ers                  10/1

Dallas Cowboys                        12/1

New England Patriots                12/1

Los Angeles Rams                    14/1

Las Vegas Raiders                    18/1

Miami Dolphins                         18/1

Tennessee Titans                      18/1

Seattle Seahawks                      20/1

New York Giants                       25/1

Now, let’s take a quick look at how Watt could fit in with some of these teams to see if it makes sense for them to spend a good chunk of their salary cap to bring in one of the best defensive players of the past 20 years.

Steelers: Considering both of Watt’s NFL-playing brothers, T.J. and Derek, suit up for Pittsburgh, this could work well. In 2020, Pittsburgh’s defense was one of the best in the NFL, so adding J.J. Watt would almost be an embarrassment of riches. The problem is that the Steelers are currently about $30 million over the salary cap, so they’d have to move around plenty of pieces to fit in Watt, who probably would have to sign for the veteran’s minimum salary. There also might not be an easy place to fit Watt into Pittsburgh’s 3-4 defense, especially considering Watt isn’t the player he was three or four years ago. On the Steelers, Watt probably wouldn’t be the star. He might not even be an every-down player. Though Pittsburgh is the betting favorite to land Watt, I would not put my money here.

Bills: At this moment, Buffalo is about $2 million over the salary cap limit for the 2021 season, so it seems like it wouldn’t be that difficult to find a place for Watt. As the Buffalo News helpfully points out, here’s how the team could manage it. “The Bills could save the following cap space in 2020 by restructuring players who have long-term deals: Tre’Davious White ($7.5 million), Stefon Diggs ($7.1 million), Dion Dawkins ($4.73 million), Mitch Morse ($3 million) and Jordan Poyer ($2.6 million). Releasing players would also create space. The big savings via that route include John Brown ($7.9 million) and Morse ($7.59 million).” The Bills defense was mostly average last year, including its pass rush, and Watt certainly could help a defense that finished 15^th in sacks. A defensive end duo of Watt and Jerry Hughes would sound pretty good to the ears of Buffalo fans.

Packers: Green Bay has two factors going for it: It would allow Watt to return to Wisconsin, where he grew up and where he played college ball, and it would give Watt a real chance to try to win a Super Bowl. Green Bay has been to the postseason in 10 of the past 12 years, including four NFC championship games (Watt has been to the playoffs six times in his 10 years but has never made a conference title game). Both of those could be a real selling point to Watt. And then there’s this, via USA Today: “The Packers operate on the opposite end of spectrum as the Texans, who have quickly become the laughing stock franchise of the league. The Packers have four strong leaders—Matt LaFleur, Brian Gutekunst, Russ Ball and Mark Murphy—running a stable franchise that knows how to win. Consistently.” It’s unlikely that Watt would ever have to leave Green Bay because of incompetent management, the way he just did in Houston.

One last prop bet: One other fun wager from BetOnline.ag dealt with the aftermath of drunk Tom Brady. You probably have already seen the footage of a clearly blitzed Brady after the Buccaneers Super Bowl victory parade a few days after Tampa Bay’s historic victory, and you might have even watched Brady toss the Lombardi Trophy to Cameron Brate during the boat parade.

But not everybody was thrilled with Brady’s toss. Lorraine Grohs—whose father, Greg Grohs, designed the first Lombardi Trophy—said, “It just upset me that this trophy was disgraced and disrespected by being thrown as if it was a real football. I have a big history of this trophy being made by my father, and it’s such an honor, and I know all the craftsmen that made it when my dad was there also at Tiffany’s. And it takes a lot of hard work. … I personally would like an apology, not just to me and my family and the other silversmiths but to the fans, all the football fans, the other team players.”

The betting odds on Brady saying he’s sorry?

Yes -400 (1/4)

No +250 (5/2)

If it were me, I’d take the longshot and go with “no.” That’s because Brady knows he has the backing of his general manager. On Twitter, Tampa Bay GM Jason Licht responded with a GIF from the movie Stripes with the caption, “Lighten up, Francis.”

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With any luck (and with much of the world getting vaccinated), it’ll hopefully be more of a normal NFL season, where thousands of fans can gather in stadiums. Where a team doesn’t have to worry about losing its star quarterback to COVID protocol (looking at you, Lamar Jackson) or its entire quarterback roster (ahem, Denver Broncos). Where hopefully we can actually see a coach’s lips move when he’s chewing out an official.

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So here are the five questions I have looking to next season. After all, Week 1 is only seven months away. It’ll be here before you know it.

1) Can the Buccaneers repeat?

It feels weird to write this answer, but if the team’s 43-year-old (soon to be 44-year-old) quarterback returns for another season, then it’s absolutely possible. Tom Brady continues to astound, and the fact he won his seventh NFL championship and his first with a second team in his 21^st season in the league means we should never count Brady out of anything, even if he can’t quite hold his liquor. It’s not just Brady, of course. The Buccaneers have about $28 million in cap room to spend, but they’ll have to figure out if they want to bring back free agents like defensive end Shaq Barrett, linebacker Lavonte David, defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh, receiver Chris Godwin and tight end Rob Gronkowski. Or, for that matter, running back Leonard Fournette, who absolutely shined in the postseason.

But with a core of fantastic players like Brady, Mike Evans, Ronald Jones II, Jason Pierre-Paul and Devin White, the Buccaneers will have the chance to take the NFC South (remember, they didn’t even win the division this year) and make another deep postseason run. The window, though, is closing and 2021 might be the last chance for Tampa Bay to win a league title for a while. Brady won’t play forever, and coach Bruce Arians, who is closing in on his 70^th birthday, might end up retiring soon. So, 2021 could be Tampa Bay’s last best chance.  “As long as I’m playing, I want to improve and get better. I feel like next year is going to be a lot better than this year,” Brady said four days before the Super Bowl. “I feel like I’ll be in a much better place mentally. I’m going to train a lot better this year, physically, next year I’ll be in a better place.” That’s bad news for the rest of the 31 NFL squads.

2) Can the Chiefs recover?

It feels weird to be writing this question, but the Chiefs got absolutely beaten up by Tampa Bay. And you have to wonder if Kansas City’s potential dynasty is over even before it starts. After all, the Bills aren’t going anywhere, and neither are the Browns or the Ravens. It’s so difficult to get to this point of the season two seasons in a row and then continue to build a dynasty (just ask the Seahawks about that), and it’ll be interesting to see where Kansas City goes from here. Assuming Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz return at the tackle positions, the offensive line will be in a much better place than its sieve-like performance against Tampa Bay. Receiver Tyreek Hill will be back. So will tight end extraordinaire Travis Kelce. Most of the team’s top defensive players will, as well.

But Kansas City currently is $18 million over in salary cap space, and that likely will affect next year’s offensive line depth. But hey, the oddsmakers believe. According to BetOnline.ag, the Chiefs are 11/4 to win the AFC title and 5/1 to win Super Bowl LVI. Mahomes believes, as well. “We can’t let this define us,” Mahomes said after the Super Bowl. “We have to continue to get better going into next year and prepare ourselves to hopefully be in this game again. We knew it wasn’t always going to be successful and we weren’t going to be able to win 1,000 championships in a row. We knew we were going to go through times like this and adversity.”

3) Will the Patriots return better than ever?

Speaking of organizations who maintained a long reign of dominance, will New England return to the upper echelon of the AFC in 2021? The Patriots likely will let go of Cam Newton, who had mixed results in 2020, and the team very well could look to the draft to shore up the quarterback, receiver, tight end and defensive end positions. New England, which went 7-9 in 2020, also has an ungodly $62 million of cap space, so it’ll likely hit the free agent market hard and could sign cornerback Stephon Gilmore to a long-term deal (but there have also been some rumblings that he could be used as trade bait). If Patriots fans are hoping for a quick return to supremacy, however, that might not happen in 2021. For the first time in recent memory, it seems that the organization is in rebuilding mode.

4) Where will Deshaun Watson end up?

Now that the Texans quarterback has made it clear he wants to get away from Houston, one of the bright young stars of the league land will try to continue his fantastic production (a league-leading 4,823 yards with 33 touchdowns and just seven interceptions in 2020) somewhere else. How big a deal is Watson’s upcoming move? Hall of Fame cornerback Champ Bailey recently compared it to the Broncos acquiring Peyton Manning in 2012. So, at least one former Denver player likes the idea of Watson playing full-time at Empower Field at Mile High. Miami and the New York Jets also could be in the mix for Watson’s services, as could the Panthers and the 49ers. So far, the Texans are saying they won’t trade Watson, who will make a base salary of about $10.5 million in 2021 but who will get a raise to $35 million in 2022. But the team has a new coach, and J.J. Watt has been released. So, it might make sense to get even further into rebuilding mode by dealing Watson. The draft and/or player capital the team will get in return will probably be quite impressive.

5) Is the relationship between Russell Wilson and the Seahawks about to get rocky?

If this past week is any indication, their relationship seems to be worsening. Wilson said he’d like to be more involved with the team’s personnel decisions, and he also talked about shaky offensive lines that have allowed him to be sacked 394 times, by far the most of any quarterback in his first nine NFL seasons since at least 1970. “Like any player, you never want to get hit,” Wilson told reporters this week. “That’s the reality of playing this position; ask any quarterback who wants to play this game. But at the same time, it’s part of the job and everything else. I think that the reality is that I’ve definitely been hit. I’ve been sacked almost 400 times, so we’ve got to get better. I’ve got to find ways to get better too.” Somebody asked him if he was frustrated with the organization, and he said, “I’m frustrated [about] getting hit too much.” Wilson almost assuredly isn’t going anywhere for 2021, but the situation bears monitoring if Seattle doesn’t provide help on the offensive line soon.

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And what could be better than Super Bowl LV, with Tom Brady, the greatest quarterback in history, in another title game (perhaps his last), going against the most dynamic quarterback of his generation, Patrick Mahomes. There are great players on both sides (Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Mike Evans, etc., etc.), and there are major hurdles for both teams to try to overcome to win a title.

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And in a season that could have been pockmarked and halted by the coronavirus pandemic, the fact that the NFL got through the year mostly unscathed by COVID-19 is an impressive feat. On Super Bowl Sunday, we all get to celebrate (of course, it’s also sort of the worst day of the NFL season because after Sunday, we won’t get real football for seven months).

As always, we have questions about what will happen and why. Here are the four most pressing quarterbacks as we head into the Super Bowl matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

1.How much can the Buccaneers exploit Kansas City’s backup offensive tackles?

Since left tackle Eric Fisher went down with an Achilles tendon injury in the AFC title game, this has become a major story for the Chiefs. Without Fisher in the lineup, Mike Remmers will move from right tackle to left tackle, Austin Wylie will shift from right guard to right tackle and Stefan Wisniewski will likely take over for Wylie. For the biggest game of the season, you certainly don’t want to have to use a makeshift offensive line to protect your biggest asset in Mahomes. Especially when the Buccaneers boast Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaq Barrett as edge rushers.

So, can Tampa Bay make Kansas City pay for its bad luck? The Buccaneers will certainly try. As Pierre-Paul said this week referring to Remmers, “I didn’t even know who that was. Man, I’m not going to lie to you. Is this a tackle that you’re talking about? Like I said, I don’t care too much about it. They got to figure that out. I’m going to play some great football this weekend.” Yet, if there’s any quarterback in the league who can erase the mistakes that might be made by a pair of backup tackles, it’s Mahomes. If it were the mostly stationary Tom Brady and he was missing two tackles, I’d be more concerned. But Mahomes’ escapability could be a great equalizer in this unfortunate scenario.

2. Does Steve Spagnuolo have Tom Brady’s number?

As a defensive coordinator, Spagnuolo has faced Tom Brady five times. In three of those contests, Spagnuolo’s squads have solved Brady well enough to produce wins against him, including Super Bowl XLII when the Giants upset the undefeated Patriots. So yes, Spagnuolo knows how to prepare for and to keep Brady under control. Now, the second-year Kansas City defensive coordinator will be tasked to do that yet again on Sunday.

“That game is one of my least favorite football memories,” Brady said this week, referring to the Super Bowl from 13 years ago. “… Spags runs a great scheme, and I think he really caters to the strength of his players. I think his scheme has evolved, and I’ve played him several times over the last 13, 14 years. He’s a tremendous coach, and everybody seems to love to play for him. It’s a tough game. I know he’ll have those guys ready.”

3. Can Travis Kelce be stopped?

People can’t stop saying nice things about Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. Buccaneers coach Bruce Arians compared him to Tony Gonzalez, and Rob Gronkowski, one of the top tight ends in NFL history, said Kelce is the best player on Kansas City’s squad. In 15 regular-season games this year, Kelce recorded 1,416 yards, the most ever for a tight end and the fifth-straight season he’s topped the 1,000-yard mark. Can Tampa Bay slow him down? It’ll certainly be difficult. As Arians noted, Kelce runs routes like a wide receiver, and he’s quick enough to beat opposing cornerbacks.

The only team that managed to make him look average this year was the Broncos in Week 7 when Kelce was held to three catches for 31 yards. Six weeks later in their second matchup of the year, Kelce torched Denver for eight catches, 136 yards and a touchdown. “We gave a lot of attention to (wideout Tyreek) Hill, which left Kelce in some one-one-one situations,” Broncos coach Vic Fangio said afterward. “We had a hard time covering him, obviously.” The Broncos aren’t alone. Now, Arians and defensive coordinator Todd Bowles have to figure out how to do better.

4. Can Leonard Fournette complete his late-season turnaround as a key cog for the Bucs?

Some people were skeptical when the Buccaneers acquired Leonard Fournette at the beginning of the season, and for much of 2020, he was an afterthought—consider he rushed for more than 55 yards only once during the regular season and was a healthy scratch in Week 14. But he’s had a larger presence in the playoffs, averaging about 70 rushing yards per game to go with more than five catches per contest. Obviously, Brady, Evans and Chris Godwin will play big roles in the Tampa Bay offense on Sunday. But Fournette and Ronald Jones should have an impact in the running game as well. Coming from Jacksonville, where Fournette was the main cog of the offense and where much was expected, his non-starring role in Tampa Bay where he only has to help carry the rushing load has been a refreshing change of pace. Perhaps it’s made him a better player. “The biggest thing with Leonard was accepting that he wasn’t the superstar and the only guy, and wasn’t ‘The Man,’” Buccaneers running backs coach Todd McNair said this week. “Once he accepted that, he’s been a trooper, man.”

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So, when the Packers play host to the Buccaneers on Sunday at 3:05 p.m. ET for the NFC title and the Bills face the Chiefs at 6:40 p.m. ET for the AFC championship, there are plenty of storylines on which we can ponder. Here are the four questions I’m wondering about between now and Sunday.

1. Can Chad Henne lead the Chiefs to the Super Bowl if he’s needed?
As of this writing, Chiefs star quarterback Patrick Mahomes still hasn’t been cleared to play vs. the Bills. If he can’t suit up, that likely means Henne will be the one to get the starting nod. And well, that probably wouldn’t be great news for Kansas City. Particularly since Henne has thrown only 121 passes since the 2013 season, and aside from Week 17 when the Chiefs were resting their starters, hasn’t started a game in six years. But considering Mahomes took the majority of the snaps at Thursday’s practice, it certainly seems possible that he will get the go-ahead for the AFC title game. Which leads us to another question.

Can Mahomes be effective only seven days after suffering a head injury?. As of Thursday, he was still in the concussion protocol, and he still has to be declared healthy by team doctors and an independent neural consultant before he can take the field. If not, it’ll likely be Henne’s ball. And while he played relatively well to hold off the Browns last week, including a 13-yard run on third down with about 2 minutes to play and then a gutsy first-down pass to Tyreek Hill on fourth down to seal the win, could he be effective for four quarters? “I’m always a competitor,” Henne said this week. Whether he’s effective in place of Mahomes, well, that might be an entirely different story.

2. If Kansas City can stifle Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs, can the Chiefs stop the entire Bills high-powered offense?
When Kansas City beat Buffalo in Week 6, the Bills quarterback and the NFL’s No. 1 receiver had some of their worst performances of the season. Diggs caught six passes, his second-lowest total of 2020, for a season-low 46 yards. He managed a touchdown catch, but he was mostly underwhelming. Allen, meanwhile, was 14 of 27 for 122 passing yards. Yes, he rushed for a team-high 42 yards, but Allen and Diggs were throttled during the Chiefs 26-17 win.

So, what will happen if Allen and Diggs are ineffective yet again? Buffalo could turn to running back Devin Singletary for relief. Yes, Singletary only rushed for 687 yards and two scores this season, and he’s been mostly irrelevant during the postseason so far. But without injured backup Zack Moss in the lineup, it’d be awfully helpful for Singletary to chew up some yards and some clock against Kansas City’s 21^st-ranked run defense. Allen and Diggs have shown all season that they can lead the Bills to victory. But maybe it’d be helpful to get Singletary (or anybody in the running game, for that matter) a chance to contribute meaningful plays as well.

3. Can Tom Brady keep pace with Aaron Rodgers?
One of the fun aspects of this year’s playoffs is watching Brady, the greatest quarterback of all time, try to lead his new team to the Super Bowl without the benefit of Bill Belichick and the New England mystique pushing him from behind. Brady at 43 years old certainly isn’t the player he was at 33 or 28 or even 38. But he’s still good enough (remember, he threw for more yards in 2020 than he has in the past five seasons and he threw 40 touchdown passes for the first time since 2007). Against the Packers and Rodgers, though, Brady, who has been rather ordinary in the postseason so far, will have to be special.

Rodgers is coming off what should be an MVP year, and running back Aaron Jones and receiver Davante Adams are offensive playmaking machines. But can the Buccaneers keep up with them? It’s certainly possible. The Packers led the league by scoring 31.8 points per game, but Tampa Bay was third at 30.8. Green Bay hasn’t scored less than 22 points in any game this year, and the Buccaneers have gotten hot in their last five games, averaging 36.6 points per contest. Brady might be the GOAT, but Rodgers is better right now. Yet we’ve never seen an old quarterback as effective as Brady, so who’s to say he can’t upset the Packers in Green Bay?

4. What are some of the best prop bets you can make?
Sure, you love to watch football, but doesn’t it add just a touch of extra anxiety and fun (funxiety?) if you have a little bit of money riding on the outcome? Particularly if you’re taking part in a bonkers prop bet.

Here are a few of my favorites for the conference championship games. All of these, of course, are for, ahem, entertainment purposes, via BetOnline.ag.

Will any QB throw for 400 yards or more?

Yes +250 (5/2)

No -400 (1/4)     

Who will record the most passing yards?

Josh Allen 11/5

Patrick Mahomes 11/5

Aaron Rodgers 11/4

Tom Brady 3/1

Will Tyreek Hill backflip while or after scoring a TD?

Yes +600 (6/1)

No -1500 (1/15)   

When will Bills have their first run play?

Over/Under: 3½ plays from scrimmage                    

Will Josh Allen lead the Bills in rushing yards?

Yes EVEN (1/1)

No -140 (5/7)     

If it were me, here’s how I’d wager (though these are NOT recommendations): Will any quarterback throw for 400 yards or more? No. Who will record the most passing yards? Rodgers. Will Hill backflip? No, but it might be fun to take the longshot anyway. Over-under on Bills run play. Under. Will Allen lead the Bills in rushing? Yes.

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Here are the five pressing questions for the second round of the 2020 NFL playoffs.

1. Can the Ravens pass defense stop Josh Allen?: The Bills quarterback emerged as one of the best players in the league this year, and though he’s still effective on the ground, he was incredible as a passer, completing nearly 70% of his attempts for 4,544 yards, 37 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. It’s not just his passing prowess. It’s about the decisions he makes on the field when his team needs him the most.

But the Ravens pass defense could be ready for him. Baltimore allowed 221 passing yards per game, sixth-best in the NFL, and only twice this year did an opponent manage more than 300 passing yards against it (Allen has managed to surpass that total eight times this season). Baltimore has blitzed more than any NFL team this year, but the potential issue with that approach is that Allen has been fantastic against that kind of pressure this year, completing 67.5% percent of his throws for 14 touchdown passes and 8.2 yards per attempt against only two interceptions and eight sacks. If Allen has that much success against the Ravens pressure, it might be tough for Baltimore to overcome. But remember this: Last year, Baltimore blitzed Allen 62.5% of the time, according to the Buffalo News. On that day, a Ravens victory, Allen was sacked five times, and he went 7 of 23 for only 64 yards when he felt the pressure.

2. Are the Saints peaking at the right time? The Ravens know all about peaking at the right time just as the playoffs begin. That’s what happened with Baltimore and Joe Flacco on their way to Super Bowl glory during the 2012 season. Now, it seems as if New Orleans is experiencing some of the same momentum. Drew Brees has played well the past two weeks after initially struggling in his return from his ribs and lung injuries, and the defense, which is already a top-five unit, has only allowed 16 points in its last two games. But can the Saints beat the Buccaneers for the third time this season? According to CBS Sports, teams have completed the three-game sweep in the playoffs against divisional foes in 14 of 21 attempts. Buccaneers coach Bruce Arians is 0-4 against New Orleans since he took over in Tampa Bay. None of those trends are good for the Buccaneers. What might be even worse for his team, though? New Orleans has been playing its best football of the season, and with running back Alvin Kamara and receiver Michael Thomas back and healthy, that trend very well could continue.

3. Who will win between Davante Adams and Jalen Ramsey? One of the most fascinating matchups for the entire weekend will occur between Adams, the Packers receiver who led the league with 18 touchdown catches and was second with 115 receptions despite missing two games, and Ramsey—the Rams shutdown cornerback who, according to Action Network, “was as perfect as possible in the regular season, allowing just 4.4 yards per target on a 44.6% catch rate and four targets per game while shadowing opposing No. 1 receivers almost every week.”  Said Adams, via the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, “I respect Jalen’s game. He’s at the top of the list, for sure. I think there’s probably three or four super elite … corners, and he’s definitely one of those guys. He’s been playing at a high level, got great confidence. Does a lot of barking, which feeds into his confidence more. And he’s made a lot of plays. He’s definitely earned that.” Ramsey will need to make even more plays vs. Adams for the Rams, who are about a seven-point underdog, to pull off the upset in Green Bay.

4. Can the Browns recreate their offensive magic against the best team in the league? The Browns were significant underdogs against the Steelers last week, predictions that looked awfully silly when Cleveland built a 35-10 halftime lead against the Steelers before holding on for the 48-37 victory. But we’ve known for the past several weeks that Pittsburgh was a flawed team. Kansas City is an even bigger favorite vs. Cleveland (the Browns were +5.5 vs. Pittsburgh but are about +10 vs. the Chiefs). So, does Cleveland have a chance to pull off another unexpected victory?

Unlike last week, the Browns will have their head coach on the sidelines. Kevin Stefanski, who was quarantining after a COVID-19 diagnosis last week, will return, and even though interim head coach Mike Priefer was coaching only the second game of his career and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt was calling plays for the first time, the Browns offense was awfully effective in his absence. And remember: The Steelers defense ranked No. 3 in the league in points allowed and yards given up this year. The Chiefs were No. 10 and No. 16, respectively. So while I wouldn’t bet on the Browns to win this game, I would probably pick them to cover the spread and keep it close.

5. Will the Chiefs be stymied after so many starters haven’t played for 21 days? Patrick Mahomes hasn’t taken the field since Dec. 27 when the Chiefs grabbed their 14^th win of the season with a narrow win vs. the Falcons. Neither has Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce or Tyrann Mathieu. Now, the Chiefs starters, who were off in Week 17 and during their Wild Card weekend bye, are tasked with facing an upstart Browns with plenty of momentum. Will their recent inactivity hurt? Kansas City coach Andy Reid is the master of playing off a bye week (19-3 during the regular season and 5-2 after his team got to skip the postseason’s first round), but it’ll be interesting to see how his starters perform after not playing for three weeks. Sports Illustrated notes that of the last 40 teams who have had a playoff bye in the past 10 years, only six opted to sit their starters in Week 17. For what it’s worth, those teams went 2-4 in the divisional round.

The post 5 Pressing Questions For The Divisional Round Of The NFL Playoffs appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

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But we have a whole new set of queries as the final 14 teams who are still eligible to win the Super Bowl begin trying to pound and crawl their way there on Saturday. It’s everything from the Bills stampeding into the postseason to the Bears trickling in through the back door, so let’s take a look at this weekend’s action and try to make sense of some of the biggest questions that are in the forefront of our minds.

Here are the four pressing questions for the first round of the playoffs.

1) Do the Buccaneers actually have a chance vs. the Washington football team? I’m being sarcastic, of course. But then again the last two teams that had losing records but still made the postseason actually won their opening playoff games. You’ll remember that the 7-9 Seahawks from 2010 upset the Saints, thanks in part to Marshawn Lynch’s Beastquake moment, and the 7-8-1 Panthers, coached then by current Washington coach Ron Rivera, knocked off the Cardinals. So, we have precedent for these kinds of shenanigans. And in reality, Washington is such a great story with Rivera fending off cancer while coaching his first season for the organization and with Alex Smith surely sewing up the Comeback Player of the Year award by taking over the starting job from Haskins and leading the team to the NFC East title.

Would it be a shock to see the Redskins upset the Buccaneers? Not really. Tom Brady has had a solid year, but he might be missing his best receiver in Mike Evans, who’s day to day with a knee injury. But then again, Antonio Brown has gotten hot at the end of the year, and Tampa Bay still has Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski. For Washington to have a chance in this gamel, its defensive line, with rookie sensation Chase Young, will need to pressure Brady into delivering bad balls to his receivers, and the team’s top-five defense, will have to play its best. If Washington can keep this a low-scoring affair until the fourth quarter, perhaps Smith, one of the best game managers in recent memory (and that’s not an insult) can help pull out the win. But it’s doubtful, because, in reality, the Redskins aren’t a very good team coming out of a terrible division.

2) How will Kevin Stefanski’s absence impact the Browns? Now that the Browns head coach (and the man I would vote for as coach of the year) has tested positive for COVID-19, he’ll miss Cleveland’s playoff game at Pittsburgh. Special teams coach Mike Priefer will take over as acting head coach and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt will assume the offensive play-calling, and boy, what a letdown for the Browns. Before the diagnosis, I would have said that among the three teams that finished the regular season 12-4 (the Saints, Seahawks and Steelers), Pittsburgh had the best chance of getting upset during the wild card game by Cleveland. But now, I think the Browns are in real trouble. They’re also missing Pro Bowl guard Joel Bitonio because of a positive coronavirus diagnosis. It’s terrible timing for Cleveland, and it only makes the team’s job that much harder this weekend.

3) Will homefield advantage mean anything in the next few weeks? Before we begin crowing about how much homefield advantage means in the wild card round, you should remember that home teams are a combined 2-6 in the first round of the playoffs in the past two seasons and 4-8 in the past three. And yes, I do think there’s an advantage for the Chiefs as the No. 1 seed in the AFC and the Packers as the No. 1 seed in the NFC to be playing at home through the conference championship games, simply because Kansas City welcomes in thousands of fans to its games and because it gets awfully frigid in Green Bay this time of year. Otherwise, does anybody think Washington will have some kind of magical powers because it’s at home in front of a nonexistent crowd? Doubtful. After all, home teams during the regular season actually had a losing record this year (127-128-1).

4) Who’s going to start at quarterback for the Rams? If it’s not Jared Goff, still recovering from a broken thumb in Week 16 and the subsequent surgery last week, Los Angeles will have to turn to John Wolford, who actually performed better than expected in his first NFL start in Week 17. With a playoff berth on the line, the Alliance of American Football alum tossed an interception on his first throw. But after that, he threw for 236 yards and ran for 56 more and led the Rams to their victory against the Cardinals in that must-win game. Going into its wild card contest vs. the Seahawks, Los Angeles would certainly rather have Goff taking snaps (or maybe not, as I argued on the BSL Sports Tonight podcast). But at least Wolford proved he’s competent. And like the Rams against the Cardinals in Week 17, the defense was good enough to score points on its own and allowed Wolford to game-manage his way to the win. It’s not out of the realm of possibility the same thing could happen vs. Seattle.

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Aside from the symbolic measure of Buffalo topping Bill Belichick’s team while, at the same time, toppling the reign of the division’s best team for the past two decades, the Bills hadn’t swept the season series from New England since 1999. More importantly for Buffalo’s immediate future is that a win on Monday would keep the team ahead of Pittsburgh for the No. 2 seed in AFC conference, meaning the Bills would earn at least two home playoff games and would keep them from having to play the Chiefs for as long as possible.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

On Monday, the Bills blasted the Patriots 38-9 on the final Monday Night Football game of the year, and a huge batch of the credit goes to third-year quarterback Josh Allen. Like he’s been for most of the 2020 season, Allen was astonishing throughout the game, tossing four touchdown passes in the New England destruction.

One of the biggest differences for the Bills squads of 2020 and 2019 and from for the previous decade-plus is the emergence of Allen. Last year, Allen was a solid, throwing for slightly more than 3,000 yards and a slightly better than 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Bills went 10-6 but missed the postseason. This year, Allen has been fantastic, throwing for 4,000 yards entering Monday’s contest and a slightly better than 3-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His 68.7% completion percentage ranked sixth in the NFL and improved on last year’s percentage by 10 points. And now the Bills are legitimate Super Bowl contenders

Allen is a full-fledged MVP candidate, and though he probably won’t win it—as of Monday, Allen had 14/1 odds of claiming that trophy, well behind the 1/4 odds of Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers—his play is integral to Buffalo.

On Monday, Allen was fantastic, completing 27 of 36 passes for 320 yards and those four passing scores. Despite the fact that two of his receivers dropped sure touchdown passes in the first half, Allen did most of his damage through the air. Still, he used his feet when it was necessary. On a fourth-and-one late in the first quarter, Allen faked a handoff and then ran around the right end for a 22-yard gain. On a third-and-seven midway through the second quarter, with the Patriots blitz caving in the pocket, Allen found a hole in the middle of the line and scrambled for a first down.

He only rushed four times, but Allen still was third on the team with 36 yards (and actually led the Bills in rushing for most of the game before the garbage time stats began to pile up). That kind of play selection worked well against New England on Monday, but if Buffalo runs into Pittsburgh (No. 2 in the league in pass defense) in the postseason, it might not be so easy.

Either way, Allen was much more effective with his arm in his second appearance vs. New England. In Week 8, Allen was 11 of 18 for 154 yards and an interception against the Patriots. It was his worst performance of the season. He was fathombs better in Week 16, finding blocking tight end Lee Smith for a 4-yard touchdown with 5:32 left in the first half to build an eight-point lead and then throwing a 50-yard touchdown pass to Stefon Diggs less than 2 minutes later to make it 24-9.

The first drive of the second half was another fantastic one, as Allen averaged 10 yards per completion and, on the drive’s eighth snap, hit Diggs on a slant for an 18-yard touchdown. And 1:44 into the fourth quarter, Allen took the shotgun snap at the 8-yard line, moved a few steps to his left and then reversed field and with Deatrich Wise Jr. bearing down on him, he fired a perfect pass to a sliding Diggs in the end zone to give the Bills a four-touchdown lead.

“He always likes to give me the credit, and I think that’s a bunch of bull,” Diggs, who finished with nine catches and 145 yards, told ESPN after the game. “He’s out there throwing darts and scrambling and making things happen. He’s making plays for us. We have a lot of faith and trust in Josh, and he shows up week in and week out.”

If it’s possible to feel a little bad for the Patriots, this was probably the moment. They could do nothing to stop Allen and the Bills. Of course, no AFC East team has swept the Patriots since 2000, so most people can probably temper their sadness for Belichick’s squad that will finish with a sub .500 record for the first time in 20 years.

Meanwhile, Allen was breaking the franchise record with 34 touchdowns set by Jim Kelly in 1991. Doing it against the Patriots probably didn’t hurt his feelings.

“We wanted to go out there and finish and execute a gameplan that we worked really hard on this week,” Allen said. “Those guys got open and made unbelievable catches. It was a three-phase win tonight. This one felt really good.”

With 12 minutes left, Allen exited the game for good, safe on the sideline and secure in his performance.

Even with Monday’s win, though, Buffalo isn’t assured of the No. 2 seed. If the Bills win next week vs. Miami, they’d nab it. If the Steelers lose, Buffalo, no matter what happens vs. the Dolphins, would grab it.

“We have to put our best foot forward and try to go get another win,” Allen said. “That’s the only thing on our mind right now.”

And what was on Belichick’s mind? He apparently told the ESPN production crew before the game that he wasn’t buying into the Josh Allen hype and that the Patriots defense had played well against him in their first meeting.

Perhaps he’s buying into now.

The post The Bills, behind Josh Allen, are stampeding into the postseason appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

With only five weeks left in the regular season, let’s take a look at the AFC playoff picture and try to figure out which squads are in the best position to make the postseason and then make a run to the Super Bowl. We’ll also answer a few questions and try to determine who would be deserving of conference awards.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

First, here’s how the playoff seedings stand before the NFL heads into Week 13. The first seed is hugely important this season because it’s the only team in the conference that will get a first-round playoff bye. That’s one reason why Pittsburgh’s victory vs. Baltimore on Wednesday was yet another important step on its playoff journey. Staying at least one game ahead of Kansas City is imperative to grab that top seed.

Playoff standings

1.Steelers (11-0)

2. Chiefs (10-1)

3. Titans (8-3)

4. Bills (8-3)

5. Browns (8-3)

6. Dolphins (7-4)

7. Colts (7-4)

Still in the hunt

Ravens (6-5), Raiders (6-5), Patriots (5-6), Broncos (4-7), Texans (4-7)

The biggest remaining games left on the schedule

Steelers at Bills (Week 14): The two teams that have the best chance of making Pittsburgh stumble en route to a No. 1 seed (and a potential undefeated season) are Buffalo and then Indianapolis in Week 16. Making matters a little more difficult for the Bills is the fact they play in San Francisco on Monday night in Week 13 and then have to travel back across the country to play Pittsburgh at home six days later. That will be a tough stretch.

Ravens at Browns (Week 14): Coming off a tough loss to the Steelers on Wednesdasy, COVID-ravaged Baltimore should be closer to full strength for this important AFC North game. The Ravens savaged Cleveland 38-6 in their season opener, but for most of the season, the Browns have played solidly. They’re kind of a hidden gem because Pittsburgh is still undefeated and Kansas City is still dominant and Buffalo is on the verge of having its best season in 21 years. Plus, the Browns are below average in both offense AND defense. But the team is well coached and, well, Cleveland just kind of keeps on winning. For the Ravens to have a shot at the playoffs, this game is a must-win.

Chiefs at Saints (Week 15): As long as New Orleans keeps on winning, this will be a battle between two teams jockeying for their respective conference’s No. 1 seeds. If New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees is still out because of his rib injury, Taysom Hill could have a tough time keeping up with Patrick Mahomes and the league’s No. 1 offense. Even if Brees can will his body to take the field, he could be rusty and ineffective. Advantage: Kansas City.

Patriots at Dolphins (Week 15): Even before Miami was good and New England was uncharacteristically subpar, the Dolphins dominated the Patriots at home, winning two of their last three and five of their last seven when Bill Belichick travels to south Florida. Miami is in position to win its first division title since 2008. The Dolphins will be an underdog to Kansas City in Week 14, so the game the next week vs. New England might be ultra-important in the race for the AFC East title that probably won’t include the Patriots.

Titans at Packers (Week 16): Coming off its dominant victory last week against Indianapolis, I could see Tennessee beating any team in the league. The Colts are only one game back of the Titans in the AFC South, but check out three of the five remaining opponents on Tennessee’s schedule: Jacksonville, Detroit and Houston. Those are almost gimme-type games. Green Bay, on the other hand, will be dangerous for Tennessee, especially since Wisconsin will be cold on Dec. 27. Luckily for the Titans, there’s always the Derrick Henry factor (we’ll explain further below).

Which teams are the most dangerous of making a deep playoff run?

The Chiefs are my Super Bowl favorite. The Steelers obviously continue to win, but their offense can struggle and if Ben Roethlisberger sustains another hobbling injury (something that appears possible every single time he takes the field), Pittsburgh’s chances will plummet.

But opponents also might want to avoid the Titans. In 2019, Henry showed how much more difficult he is to stop during the playoffs. Last year, Henry led the NFL by averaging a league-high 102.7 yards per game on top of 20.2 carries per contest in the regular season. During Tennessee’s three-game run in the 2019 postseason, Henry averaged 148.7 yards per game on 28.7 carries. As the weather gets colder, Henry heats up. The Titans aren’t as consistent as you’d like to see —that loss to the Bengals in Week 8 was particularly brutal—but when they’re clicking, they’re as good as anybody.

Which quarterback should the Dolphins play?

I still don’t understand why Miami coach Brian Flores wants to send quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick back to the bench. But again, even after Fitzpatrick helped the Dolphins to yet another victory last Sunday vs. the Jets, Flores said Tua Tagovailoa would be the starter when he was healthy. Fitzpatrick isn’t always great, but Miami’s offense is more dynamic when he’s under center. Tagovailoa is obviously the quarterback of the future. But Fitzpatrick is the quarterback who could lead Miami to a deep playoff run.

Who would win the conference awards?

As of this moment, here’s who should win the AFC hardware.

AFC MVP: Patrick Mahomes: This seems like the obvious choice, but who else could possibly win it? Not anybody but the guy who leads the league with 3,497 passing yards to go with 30 touchdowns and just two interceptions.

AFC Rookie of the Year: Joe Burrow: Forget the fact he’ll miss the last six games of the season with that devastating knee injury. The Bengals quarterback was awesome in 2020 and has given Cincinnati its first quarterback to truly be excited about since Carson Palmer. 

AFC Defensive Player of the Year: Myles Garrett: Despite missing time while on the coronavirus reserve list, Garrett has been stupendous this year for the Browns, recording 9.5 sacks and a league-high four forced fumbles. He’s an absolute gamechanger.

AFC Coach of the Year: Kevin Stefanski: I think all bets are off if the Steelers go 16-0. You have to give it to Mike Tomlin at that point. But if the Steelers go, say, 15-1 or 14-2 and the Browns finish, say, 11-5 and make their first postseason since 2002, Stefanski deserves to win it.

The post NFL: State Of The AFC With 5 Weeks Remaining appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

And at least one, in my opinion, had his job ripped away for him somewhat unfairly and probably deserves to return to his starting role.

In some cases, the backups have the chance to lead their teams to the playoffs. They could become heroes. All they need to do is exceed whatever expectations are placed on a second-string quarterback that suddenly has been put in charge of their team’s offense. Most will likely fail, because, well, there’s a good reason they were on the second string in the first place. But remember, Nick Foles won a Super Bowl MVP as a backup during the 2017 season, and Colin Kaepernick nearly won a league championship five years earlier after coming off the bench to replace the starter (who’s now one of the backups listed below!). So, it’s certainly possible.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

That said, here are the five backup quarterbacks that could lead their squads to the promised land.

1) Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dolphins: I despised the move Miami coach Brian Flores made during the team’s bye week when he took the 16-year veteran out of the starting lineup and replaced him with first-round draft pick Tua Tagovailoa. It didn’t matter that Fitzpatrick was on a two-game winning streak and, considering the Patriots are having their worst season in the past two decades, had put the Dolphins in a solid position to compete for an AFC East title. Instead, Flores said he thought Tagovailoa gave the team a better shot to win this year. To be fair, Tagovailoa is 3-1 as a starter since then, but the Dolphins offense has been less explosive. Last Sunday, Tagovailoa was benched for Fitzpatrick, who nearly led the Dolphins back to the victory. Flores said Tagovailoa is still the starter, but in my mind, Fitzpatrick gives Miami the best chance to make the postseason.

2) Andy Dalton, Cowboys: Even though Dak Prescott was lost for the season with an ankle injury in Week 5, I predicted Dallas would still win the NFC East, because Dalton is one of the best backups in the league. Almost immediately, Dallas lost four-straight games. Dalton was ineffective as a starter, and then he suffered a concussion before being struck down by COVID-19. Yet, somehow the Cowboys are still in contention for the division lead, and if they beat Washington on Thursday, Dallas will take over first place in the NFC East with a 4-7 record. Dalton threw for three touchdowns in the team’s win against the Vikings last Sunday, and he’s a much, much better option than Garrett Gilbert or Ben DiNucci. “I thought he did a heck of a job today. He kept us in clean plays. He really gave us the ability to stay with the run and the pass,” Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy said after Sunday’s win. For a backup, that’s all you can ask.

3) Alex Smith, Washington: Who doesn’t love the story of Smith, who almost certainly will be the NFL’s comeback player of the year after missing all of last season (and nearly having his leg amputated) with one of the most cringe-inducing injuries you’ll ever see. Like Dalton, Smith has the chance to lead his team to a division title. Like Dalton, Smith is a proven winner in the regular season. With Washington having major issues with second-year quarterback Dwayne Haskins, the team’s No. 15 overall pick in 2019, it seems unlikely that his relationship with the coaching staff can be healed anytime soon. But if Smith keeps playing effectively, I suppose that doesn’t matter, especially if Washington can make its own run to a possible postseason berth. That would make Smith, who suffered a concussion during the 2012 season and lost his starting job for good to Kaepernick, come full circle.

4) Taysom Hill, Saints: Thanks to Drew Brees’ numerous rib injuries and his punctured lung, Hill will likely get a few more shots at starting. Though expectations weren’t high before last Sunday’s win vs. Atlanta, Hill played well. If there was any question about whether Jameis Winston or Hill should be starting until Brees returns, Hill answered all those queries with his performance vs. the Falcons, completing 18 of 23 passes for 233 yards and rushing for 51 more yards and two touchdowns on 10 carries. Even better, he gave opposing defense an issue it normally doesn’t have to worry about when facing New Orleans: a quarterback who can burn you through the air or on the ground (and Hill was surprisingly good when passing from the pocket). Right now, the Saints are sitting in the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC. Can Hill keep them there as Seattle, Green Bay, and Tampa Bay try to catch up? I have my doubts. But coach Sean Payton clearly has his own vision. “We’ve had a chance to see him play that position a lot more than anyone else,” Payton said before Sunday’s game. Good point. We saw plenty of good from Hill on that day at least.

5) Nick Foles: Is there that much difference between Foles, who’s now started for the past seven games, and Mitch Trubisky, who started the first three contests? Not really. The only true difference: Trubisky is 3-0 as a starter. Foles is 2-5. Yet, Chicago is still in the NFC wild card running, thanks mostly to its top-10 defense. But because Chicago is No. 31 in the NFL in yards gained and points scored, the Bears don’t have a great chance to make a playoff run unless their offense drastically improves. Foles or Trubisky? My answer is quite simply: Meh.

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