(You can discuss this series on the BSL Board here.)

At first glance you would think that the team having the tenth highest scoring offense in baseball is a positive, having scored 108 runs through their first 24 games, but upon closer inspection you can see that they’ve scored 45 (42 percent) of those runs when involved in blowouts (which they are just 3-5 in) and 35 (32 percent) of those runs in the three blowouts they’ve won.

The good news for the Orioles offense is that the Pittsburgh Pirates are in town for a quick two-game set and one of the two scheduled starters has struggled this season, and in interleague play over his career, and the other has a grand total of 37 and two-thirds innings of major league experience.

 By the Numbers

.221/.296/.351 – The Pirates are 28^th overall in team average, 25^th in on-base percentage, and if it wasn’t for the fact that they’ve managed to hit some pretty timely home runs this season then they would likely have a worse record than 10-16.

33 Percent – The league average for quality starts is 49 percent but the Orioles starters are averaging a quality start just once every three games.

13 – The Orioles and Pirates have faced off against one another 26 times in baseball history and each team currently has 13 wins against the other. However, the Birds do hold the advantage when it comes to the regular season with a 7-5 overall record and having won three in a row against them. Then again, I bet those two World Series championships would be sweeter.

39.8 Percent – Nelson Cruz has driven in 25 runs and scored 18 times, thus contributing 39.8 percent of the Orioles total offense this season so far. He’ll need to continue that trend of powering the offense while Chris Davis is out.

 The Orioles Will Win If…

They score seven or more runs, seeing as how they team is 4-0 when scoring a touchdown or higher against the opposing team. More realistically though, if Chris Tillman and Bud Norris are able to pitch beyond the sixth inning and not force the bullpen to cover three or more innings then it becomes more and more unlikely the offense will need to put up six or seven runs to beat Charlie Morton or Brandon Cumpton.

 The Pirates Will Win If…

They can finally get their offense going and not rely solely on the contributions of Andrew McCutchen. Hitters like Starling Marte and Jose Tabata will have to find ways to set the table more effectively for McCutchen and Neil Walker. Then of course, their big power threats, Pedro Alvarez and the newly acquired Ike Davis will need to play up to their true talent levels – though their sub-.190 batting averages may suggest otherwise.  

The post Weather allowing, Previewing the O’s vs. Pittsburgh Pirates appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

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Miguel Gonzalez, Bud Norris, and staff ace Chris Tillman will be the Orioles starters going up against the Tigers formidable lineup, led by none other than Miguel Cabrera. It will be there job to stifle the second-highest scoring offense in all of baseball from 2013. Granted, they traded slugging first baseman Prince Fielder in exchange for Ian Kinsler and are counting on 37-year-old Alex Gonzalez, who was acquired from Baltimore for utility man Steve Lombardozzi, to produce defensively at shortstop. However, that doesn’t mean the Orioles pitching staff shouldn’t tread carefully.

Miguel Gonzalez versus Anibal Sanchez

In game one of this series we will witness one of the more underrated starting pitchers in the American League, Miguel Gonzalez, oppose Anibal Sanchez and attempt to set the tone for the rest of the series and get the Birds back to .500. Even though Gonzalez has very quietly become one of the Orioles most reliable starters since 2012, throwing 276 and two-thirds innings and earning a 3.58 ERA over that time period, he has not had much success in limited exposure to the Tigers.

He’s started just two games against the Tigers in his career but he’s lasted a total of just 11 and two-thirds innings, giving up eight earned runs on 13 hits, three home runs, and eight walks while striking out nine.

Bud Norris versus Rick Porcello

If spring training stats were a true indicator of regular season success then we would fully expect Bud Norris to toss a shutout against the Tigers in game two of the series. Norris had a particularly strong spring, pitching 17 innings over five starts and striking out 15 batters with an ERA of 2.65. However, his 4.80 ERA over 50 and two-thirds innings of work with the Orioles after being acquired from the Houston Astros last season is still enough cause for concern.

Rick Porcello has been viewed as a starter on the verge of breaking out for several seasons in a row now, but he’s coming off some putrid performances in spring training and his lowest ERA in any season since coming into the big leagues was 3.97 in his rookie year (2009). What bodes well for the Orioles offense in this game is that over seven career starts against them and 42 innings of work, Porcello has given up a total of 24 earned runs on 56 hits.

Chris Tillman versus Justin Verlander

In the premier pitching match-up of this series, Orioles staff ace Chris Tillman opposes Tigers proven ace and veteran hurler Justin Verlander. Tillman is coming off a decent outing against the Boston Red Sox that saw him give up just one run over five innings of work, but if he wants to have another solid start he’ll need to be more economical with his pitches and get deeper into the game for his team. Tillman wasn’t particularly solid against the Tigers in his lone start against them last season, giving up three earned runs on seven hits over just five innings, but there’s always the potential for a gem when Tillman takes the mound.

Players to Watch

Justin Verlander – the Tigers perennial Cy Young candidate and ace is 8-1 with a 3.26 ERA over 13 starts and 91 innings against the Orioles in his career.

Nelson Cruz – the Orioles most recent addition to the lineup is a career .274/.351/.446 hitter against Detroit over his career and he’s also connected for eight home runs, but he’s collected just eight hits over 46 at-bats in his career against Verlander and Porcello combined.

Chris Davis – the slugger connected for an Orioles franchise record 53 home runs last season and he’ll look to do more of the same against Porcello, who he’s launched three bombs against over 12 at-bats while hitting .333 against him.

The post Series Preview: Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

While the Orioles and fans are hoping for a huge start out of Tillman today, and to get into the win column to start the season 1-0, could he potentially challenge for the greatest Opening Day start in Orioles history?

It won’t be easy – it’ll be tough as hell actually.

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He will be challenging players like Jeremy Guthrie, Mike Mussina, Jim Palmer, Dave McNally, and Rick Sutcliffe. But of all the starters in Orioles history who have started on opening day (63 different starters have started on Opening Day), which one really shines above the rest?

Guthrie shut the Tampa Bay Rays down over eight innings in 2011. Mussina is tied with Palmer for most starts in opening day history for the Orioles with six, and you would expect him to have performed admirably to have a few gems of his own. Palmer tossed a shutout against the Detroit Tigers in 1975, walking none, striking out four, and giving up just three hits. The Tigers were the worst team in baseball that year though. He shut the Red Sox out over eight innings in 1976, but wasn’t necessarily dominant.

Rick Sutcliffe, on the other hand, was masterful against the Cleveland Indians on April 6, 1992. It was a game that pitted Sutcliffe against Charles Nagy. Nagy went the distance and gave up just two runs on six hits and a walk. Sutcliffe was simply better though, shutting the Indians out over nine innings and allowing just five hits and a walk while striking out six.

The shutout is nice of course, but it was really the way in which he attacked the Indians that day which made this opening day start truly great.

Sutcliffe threw 110 pitches, facing hitters such as Kenny Lofton, Sandy Alomar, and Albert Belle in their primes and he just attacked them. He threw 65 strikes with 22 of them looking and another seven swinging. His lone walk was given to Belle but he still only threw 10 pitches to the slugger, five for strikes, and that is incredibly effective as far as pitch usage goes. Considering that the wind was blowing at 12mph that day and going from left to right, it’s a wonder that none of the 16 fly balls given up by Sutcliffe went out of the park.

As far as some of the advanced, or semi-advanced, metrics are concerned – Sutcliffe’s start this day tallied an 82 on the Game Score scale created by Bill James. He alone added .554 points of win probability to the Orioles odds of winning this game, in large part due to the 4.4 (RE24) runs he managed to save by getting a key double play, ground ball, or strikeout.

This Orioles team wouldn’t make the playoffs but they did go on to win 89 games, finishing third in the East Division, and Sutcliffe did exactly what he was brought in to do. Throw a lot of innings, he finished the year with 237 1/3 IP, and mentor young pitchers Mike Mussina, Ben McDonald, and Arthur Rhodes. As a result of his mentoring Mussina would go on to become one of the greatest pitchers in Orioles history, McDonald did well enough as a mid-rotation guy, and Rhodes had a long career as a superb relief pitcher.

Sutcliffe would go on to pitch just two more seasons, one with the Orioles in 1993 and the other with the St. Louis Cardinals in 1994. He finished his career with 171 wins, a 4.08 ERA, 72 complete games, and 18 shutouts over more than 2,500 innings of work. 

The post The Greatest Opening Day Start in Baltimore Orioles History appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Putting aside the fact that the lower the ERA the better the pitcher is perceived to have pitched, and in most cases that is true, we shouldn’t take stat lines – especially those of starting pitchers – as gospel. It’s important to also take into consideration the level of competition, the quality of the batters faced overall before writing off one pitcher and embracing another.

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Pitching in the American League, more specifically the American League East, you would expect to face a higher level of competition with regularity throughout the course of a season. The fact that the average OPS in the American League was .724 in 2013 and the average OPS in the National League was .704 should mean something when comparing the remarkable season Kris Medlen had with the Braves, or any other pitcher in baseball for that matter, to any starter in the Orioles rotation or another.

Much has been made, and continues to be made, concerning the Orioles lack of a true ace at the top of the rotation. When you compare the statistics between the three starters I’ve compared above once again after looking at the variation in the quality of batters faced it becomes clearer that the Orioles do have a starter in their rotation that does quite alright for himself relative to the quality of competition faced. Matt Moore may have the shiny ERA and strikeout numbers to give the appearance that he’s far superior to a Tillman or right up there with Lester, or any other perceived top of the rotation starter in the AL East, but think again.

There was no other starting pitcher in baseball that faced tougher opposition then Tillman did in 2013 that was slotted in at the top of their teams’ respective rotation. Of all the pitchers that started 27 games or more there was just one who faced tougher opposition then Tillman and had better overall numbers. That pitcher is Hiroki Kuroda who had a 3.31 ERA over 32 starts and 201.1 innings of work and his opp_OPS was .741, so not much higher than Tillman’s.

Of the 80 starting pitchers that made at least 27 starts last season there were 49 that faced below the league average OPS in their respective league. Of the starters who made at least 27 starts and faced better than their league average opposition we are left with just nine names. Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, David Price, Mat Latos, Hisashi Iwakuma, Jose Fernandez, Travis Wood, Jose Quintana, and Ervin Santana. That is a solid list of bonafide front line starters, men who can lead your rotation, or young up-and-comers (with the exception being Ervin Santana).

Chris Tillman may not have thrown a no-hitter or perfect game over the last year or two and he may not have put up a season of sub-three ERA ball, but to say that he’s not capable of becoming the front line starter the Orioles are supposedly lacking is a bit absurd. He is still just 25 years old, though he turns 26 in mid-April, and entering the prime years of his career and athletic ability for a pitcher. He was recently named the Opening Day starter for his team and don’t be surprised if he has an even better 2014 season then 2013.

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The off-season for the Baltimore Orioles has been anything but full of exciting news and updates. The biggest acquisition the team has made was signing Korean pitcher Suk-min Yoon to a three-year deal, worth upwards of $13.075MM based on certain escalators in the contract. Whether he slots into the back-end of the starting rotation or the bullpen, at this point, is anybody’s best guess but it is clear more work needs to be done to guarantee the 2014 season is one met with more victories than crushing defeats, but does not screw up the long-term health of the team.

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Being General Manager of the Orioles for a full 24-hour period feels like such a blessing. There are so many different moves I could make that could improve the team now, improve them for the future, or do both at the same time. That’s the trick though, trying to balance the act of winning now since this team does have the core in place to do so while not screwing the pooch long-term.

If there was nothing standing in my way, here are the moves I would make it a point to pull off if I were the general manager for the Baltimore Orioles.

1.       Trade Matt Wieters to the Los Angeles Angels for catcher Hank Conger and prospects.

The fact of the matter is super-agent Scott Boras intends to take Matt Wieters to free agency unless he is offered a contract indicative of what he could potentially get on the open market, with a very weak field of starting catchers available when he’ll hit free agency. Wieters is a fine catcher, one that is most certainly a top eight catcher in baseball when you factor in his 20+ home run power, but he’s not worth six years and $100MM when you can get more overall value by trading him.

First and foremost, you need a major league caliber catcher to replace Wieters and Hank Conger is a guy that is vastly underrated for his defensive work behind the dish. While Conger will never be known as a guy that carries a big stick, as long as he continues to put up league average offensive production he will be valuable behind the plate.

The group of prospects being targeted in this proposed trade is Zach Borenstein (OF), Kaleb Cowart (3B), CJ Cron (1B/DH) and Alex Yarbrough (2B).

Depending on which scout you talk to, Kaleb Cowart could be the biggest prize of this potential trade. Cowart had a horrible season with the bat in Double-A last season, likely due to the fact that he was promoted aggressively and has been one of the youngest players at every stop during his professional career (much like Jonathan Schoop). Cowart profiles well enough offensively, as he is capable of hitting 20+ home runs while hitting around .260. The real talent is with the glove, which is above average and he has a big arm.

C.J. Cron is well known for his power but he’s really just a less athletic version of Mark Trumbo and has full-time DH written all over him. He’s a solid addition to any farm system that is lacking in prospects with true power potential though.

Alex Yarbrough is a player that still has some work to do defensively at second base, and his arm does leave a little something to be desired, but he plays a position of major need for the Orioles and he has an adequate enough bat. Scouts view him as a player that will be a high-contact, low-power bat and he’s viewed as a prospect that will be a major league regular in some capacity.

Finally, we have outfield prospect Zach Borenstein who happens to be the real prize of this potential trade in my opinion. The 2011 23^rd round pick wasn’t considered much of a top prospect until breaking out in a big way last year in the hitter friendly California League, but following up his breakout 2013 campaign with another strong season in 2014 could help quiet the critics. He plays a solid outfield, with his best position likely being left field and he’s a left-handed hitter that can hit for power and average.

While it’s unlikely the Angels would accept any trade involving multiple top prospects, especially with such a thin farm system, I feel a deal that included three of the four prospects mentioned in addition to Conger would be acceptable. Depending on which three of the four I could be willing to include a prospect such as Mike Wright in the deal with Wieters.

2.       Make Chris Davis an offer that will be very difficult to refuse – six years, $135MM, with a limited no-trade clause

With the run environment major league baseball is currently experiencing, thanks to the focus being put on developing starting pitching and defense, it is becoming increasingly difficult to find true power-hitters on the open market so when you already have one in your lineup you don’t let him hit free agency. Chris Davis is in his prime and coming off of a career year in which he blasted 53 home runs, a franchise record, and the only way to keep him an Oriole long-term is to reward him accordingly.

Considering that super-agent Scott Boras represents Davis the only way to get Boras’ attention and present an offer to Davis would be to offer him one that lets them know we’re serious about getting a deal done. If Davis hits the open market it’s very likely he could get a seven-year contract worth upwards of $160MM. Offering him $22.5MM per year over six years offers considerable security to Davis and still offers the organization a way to not lose him in a bidding war if he were to hit the open market.

3.       Offer a three year, $42MM contract extension to J.J. Hardy.

The Orioles shortstop of the future is currently the team’s gold glove winning third baseman who also may just happen to be our third baseman of the future, instead of just our third baseman for the now. Even if Manny Machado were to move back over to shortstop, his natural position, the organization has no major league ready replacement in the farm system. That makes signing J.J. Hardy, the Orioles current gold glove winning shortstop, to a contract extension one priority requiring serious consideration.

4.       Attempt to trade for Matt Kemp by agreeing to take on Josh Beckett as part of the deal.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have previously made it known that they would entertain trade offers for Matt Kemp. Even though he is still owed nearly $130MM through the 2019 season he is still the kind of player I would trade for in a heartbeat and take on the entirety of the contract. To help sweeten the deal for the Los Angeles Dodgers I would also be willing to take Josh Beckett, and his full remaining salary, seeing as how they are not even sure if they would have a spot in the rotation for him.

Obviously the Dodgers aren’t going to just gift us Kemp and that is why I’m willing to offer up Nick Markakis, Bud Norris, Christian Walker and Zach Davies in exchange. The deal itself is a bit of a long-shot because I don’t believe the Dodgers are hurting for money so badly (or at all) that they’ll actually trade Kemp, but it’s certainly worth giving it the ole’ college try.

Considering that Beckett’s $17MM salary for the 2014 season, the final year of his contract, would be completely off-set (and some) by trading away Norris and Markakis the organization is really only taking on Kemp’s contract.

5.       Put my stamp on the international market by offering Cuban infielder Aledmys Diaz a contract worth $34MM over six years.

This organization is incredibly thin on position player prospects in their minor league system, specifically middle infield, and since the top Cuban player on the open market plays a position of need it’s a near no-brainer that you go after him.

Aledmys Diaz is 23-years-old and primarily played shortstop in Cuba and had a .315/.404/.500 batting line with 12 home runs during the 2011-12 season, his last year before defecting. Overall, Diaz has displayed solid range at shortstop and an above average arm – though it’s difficult to truly gauge just how talented he is defensively from grainy YouTube videos of his playing days in Cuba. Scouts seem to be of the opinion that he will have to change positions (possibly to second or third base) at the major league level.

Offensively he has a history of displaying patience at the plate and a good enough eye to lay off the junk pitches from the pitcher he had been facing in Cuba. From 2008 to 2012 Diaz drew 139 walks compared to just 107 strikeouts and reportedly has a little bit of speed to work with on the bases.

Some reports have pegged his value at somewhere between $20MM and $30MM on the open market, a large part of that reason is because his signing will not go against the international free agent bonus budget for teams. The New York Yankees have already stated they are going to vastly over-spend this year on international free agents, but the Orioles should make a very aggressive run at signing the Cuban infielder. If nothing else it would display an eagerness to participate in all aspects of free agency.

It may shock you to learn that even if the moves I would attempt to make were all successful, the 2014 payroll would still only be a shade under $95MM. The contracts that would be on the books for 2015 would all come in around $90MM, but that doesn’t take the arbitration eligible players into consideration or any other signings. Either way, I feel that with these moves I have accomplished what I set out to do which was further build up this team to compete for the playoffs in 2014 without sacrificing the long-term health of the organization. 

The post GM For A Day: Baltimore Orioles appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

There’s been a good bit of early action this baseball off-season with several trades taking place, a few signings of quality free agents, and the Baltimore Orioles are nowhere to be found as all this takes place. Over the last week I’ve spoken to baseball analysts such as Steve Melewski, Joe Posnanski, and Dan Szymborski on my radio show about where the Orioles are at as an organization and what they need to do to build upon that core.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

The general consensus seems to be, which I happen to agree with, is that the core this team has in place is capable of winning 85 games or so without any major improvements from the players already on the roster and also if the organization were to add any significant players to the roster. However, 85 wins does not a playoff team make. Improvements are necessary to not have to rely heavily on luck in 2014 to get back to the postseason and it seems like Dan Duquette is going to allow the off-season to pass him by.

We have already witnessed players that would have likely been good fits for the Orioles needs get signed by other organizations.

Starting pitcher Jason Vargas recently signed with the Kansas City Royals for $32MM over four years, or roughly $8MM per year – which is a bargain for a starter who can provide you with nearly 200 innings per season and above league average production.

Outfielder Chris Young signed a one-year contract with the New York Mets for $7.25MM, which is on my list of smartest signings of the winter so far. Young is a guy that could rebound to hit around .260 with an on-base percentage in the .360 range, while also popping off for 25 home runs. Add in his gold glove caliber defense and the length and amount of his contract seems like a grand bargain.

They also missed out on David Murphy, who signed for a reasonable two years and $12MM, Tim Hudson was snatched up by the San Francisco Giants for two years and $23MM, and then of course there were the two international free agents they should have been in on but weren’t.

Power-hitting first baseman Jose Dariel Abreu was signed by the Chicago White Sox for $68MM over six years, which could turn out to be a pretty favorable contract if he lives up to the hype offensively, and they completely missed out on the one player they should have been in on from the get-go in second baseman Alexander Guerrero, who signed a reasonably four year contract worth $28MM with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Los Angeles Dodgers also signed Dan Haren to a one-year deal worth $10MM and the Orioles missed their window to try to work out a deal with the St. Louis Cardinals for some of their top-tier pitching talent in exchange for J.J. Hardy, who is no longer a fit for them now that they’ve signed Jhonny Peralta.

That right there is a list of seven different players that this team should have been targeting and going after with a degree of seriousness not seen since they pursued, and signed, Miguel Tejada and also missed working out a deal with an organization that they matched up with quite well. Each one of them would have filled specific holes and met very specific needs in the starting rotation, left field, designated hitter, and second base.

Instead, the team is focused on adding depth by claiming players off waivers such as second baseman Cord Phelps and acquiring guys like reliever Brad Brach. What, you don’t know who those players are? Don’t worry, you’re not alone.

These are the types of acquisitions that have highlighted the Orioles winter plan thus far and while adding depth in the bullpen and middle infield is nice, it’s not going to be enough to get this team over the hump. I’m not saying they are a mere one player away, but two quality signings in the mold of Scott Kazmir, Corey Hart, or even Kendrys Morales if the organization was feeling especially daring would do enough to help this team go from 85 or 86 wins to right around 90 with Buck Showalter at the helm.

If you can get to 90 wins without having to rely on luck a good chunk of the time then you’ve got something really special and that’s what the fans should be able to reasonably expect. However, the effort and the plan of simply having a plan isn’t cutting it right now.

The post The Baltimore Orioles Winter of Dud appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

The Baltimore Orioles number one priority this off-season will be to improve the starting rotation, as reported by Rock Kubatko of MASNsports.com and anyone who watched the team play this season. The biggest obstacle standing in the way of accomplishing that goal in a meaningful way is Orioles Executive Vice President Dan Duquette. He has made it known that long-term contracts and big dollars will not be invested for any free agent and he also isn’t willing to trade top prospects to do so.

(You can discuss this article on the BSL Board here.)

However, an argument could be made that he dramatically weakened any potential package he could have put together this winter when he traded prospects such as Nick Delmonico, L.J. Hoes, Josh Hader, and Xavier Avery in a failed attempt to earn a playoff berth this past season.

So how can the Orioles accomplish shoring up the starting rotation in a meaningful way if they are not willing to commit dollars and years to top tier free agents and are not willing to trade top prospects, not that they have the package to do so now anyway?

The next best thing, and something the Orioles are more than capable of pulling off, would be to trade a quality veteran at a key position to a team with an immediate need there.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post opines that the St. Louis Cardinals are in a position to trade away their excess pitching, as they have one of the largest surpluses of young arms in baseball, in an effort to shore up a weakness at shortstop.

Specifically, Joel says that (hypothetically) the Cardinals could trade starting pitcher Lance Lynn and third baseman David Freese in a deal for Hardy.

Let’s dig into this hypothetical trade of Lance Lynn and David Freese for J.J. Hardy.

If the Orioles acquired Lynn in a deal for Hardy he would automatically become the number two pitcher in the rotation based on his performance over the last two seasons as a starter and he could pitch 200 innings for the team.

This season he posted a 3.97/3.28 ERA/FIP with a 23.1% strikeout rate and an 8.9% walk rate while pitching in the National League. Lynn works primarily off his fastball, which averages between 92 and 93 mph, and also has a slider, curveball, and changeup. As I mentioned, he likes to work off his fastball and incorporates his slider and curveball the most after the fastball in an attempt to keep hitters off-balance.

The real question with any pitcher going from the National League to the American League, especially coming to the American League East, is how his stuff would play up in the new environment. Over Lynn’s career he has pitched in nine intra-league games, starting six of them, working 44 and 1/3 innings and compiling a 5.08 ERA.

Those numbers aren’t very impressive but should we consider 44 and 1/3 innings of work, facing AL competition, enough to make the determination he wouldn’t be able to hack it as an AL starting pitcher?

Now, the other half of this trade is the supposed inclusion of third baseman David Freese – which is really the key here because the Orioles would need someone to play third considering Manny Machado is, highly likely, to be the player replacing Hardy at shortstop.

Freese was a World Series hero for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2011 and broke out offensively in 2012 when he hit .293/.372/.467 with 20 home runs. His numbers took a bit of a dive across the board in 2013 though; batting .262/.340/.381 with nine home runs and the advanced metrics absolutely hated his defense at third base even though he has a reputation for being fairly solid there.

One additional thing to note when it comes to Freese is that he is arbitration eligible for the second time this winter, and it likely to get a raise from the $3.15MM he earned this season.

The real question is would the Orioles be willing to move J.J. Hardy for the two players Sherman mentioned? Then, of course, there is the matter of whether the Cardinals value Hardy enough to package a 26-year old starting pitcher who is under team control through 2018 AND an above average third baseman due a raise in the off-season.

The post Should the Baltimore Orioles Trade J.J. Hardy? appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

In this episode of Bird Talk the guys talk about Baltimore Orioles third baseman Manny Machado’s decision to have knee surgery over rest and rehab, whether Cal Ripken would make a good manager or not, and discuss what the team can do to improve for the 2014 season.

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The post Bird Talk – Episode 50 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

In this episode of Bird Talk Jeff, Jon, and Lance discuss what it would take to extend Chris Davis and Matt Wieters, as well as whether the Baltimore Orioles should or not. They also talk about Brian Matusz being on the trade block and whether the team should make a trade for Los Angeles Angels second baseman Howie Kendrick.

(You can discuss this episode on the BSL Board here.)

Music provided by: Meat Wave – Keep Smoking

The post Bird Talk – Episode 49 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

The Baltimore Orioles have the un-envious task of beginning work on the off-season earlier than 10 other teams. Even though free agency doesn’t officially begin until the day after the World Series and the free agent and trade markets aren’t ‘official’ yet, we can at least take a look at where this team stands with potential payroll and their own pending free agents.

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According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Baltimore Orioles payroll for the 2013 season was north of $92MM and they are only officially on the hook for roughly $45MM next season. However, with 10 or so arbitration eligible players that figure is certainly going to increase by quite a bit. The notable arbitration eligible players are Chris Davis, Matt Wieters, and Jim Johnson as they are likely to get the largest increases through the salary arbitration process.

In addition to their arbitration eligible players they also have their own lengthy list of pending free agents to address. Brian Roberts and his $10MM salary are coming off the books but he has indicated he would like to return to Baltimore next season. Jason Hammel made $6.75MM this season, spending much of his time on the disable list, and he is unlikely to be re-signed. Mike Morse, Scott Feldman, Nate McLouth, and Francisco Rodriguez are also set to become free agents and Feldman is the most likely of that group to be offered a new contract.

Even though it may seem as if the Orioles will have a hefty amount of money to spend this off-season, going from a $90+MM payroll to just around $45MM in firm commitments for next season, but don’t be fooled by current figures.

Their arbitration eligible players, those that they decide to offer contracts to that is, is going to eat up a lot of that perceived payroll room.

This is pure professional speculation on my part but Jim Johnson is likely to earn $9MM in his final year of arbitration, Chris Davis is likely to receive at least two and a half times the $3.3MM he earned this season, and Matt Wieters plays a premium position and is considered one of the best defensive catchers in baseball so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him get a bump in pay from the $5.5MM he was paid.

In addition to the big three there the team also has to decide what it wants to do with Bud Norris, who is arbitration eligible for the second time, and then Tommy Hunter and Brian Matusz who are also arbitration eligible for the second time.

A conservative estimate would be that the team is likely to invest at least $30MM or so in those six players listed for arbitration purposes alone, whether they take a player to arbitration or reach a one-year deal to avoid the process, but the final cost is likely to push closer to $40MM.

Then of course there is J.J. Hardy, arguably the best overall shortstop in the American League, who becomes a free agent after the 2014 season. Does the team look into offering him an extension to keep Manny Machado at third base or do they let him go and find a replacement at third instead?

Lastly, we can’t forget that Chris Davis recently expressed a sincere interest in signing a long-term contract extension with the team and Matt Wieters will also be looking for some clarity on his long-term status with the organization fairly soon. Both players are represented by Scott Boras so no major discounts should be expected. He did manage to get Prince Fielder nine years and $214MM two years ago coming off of a season in which he hit .299/.415/.566 with 38 home runs. Davis is coming off a season in which he hit .286/.370/.634 with 53 home runs.

The reason all of this information is important is because Dan Duquette may spend their allotted payroll flexibility on an extension for Davis, much the same way they extended Adam Jones, and claim they essentially did invest in the free agent market by preventing one of their best players from reaching the open market.

I’m not sure we should expect the organization to spend big money on free agents because as it stands now, even without a contract extension for one of their best players, they will still end up with a payroll near where it was this season.  Maybe I’m wrong, but logically speaking I may not be too far off.

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