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Stewart was the Orioles first round pick in 2015, drafted 25^th overall. At the time it wasn’t seen as necessarily a great pick (although not really a bad pick either). Stewart was generally seen as a player with a decent bat and on base skills, but he came with concerns about how much his power would play in the big leagues, as well as where he would fit defensively. Those concerns may still exist, although given that AAA is now using MLB baseballs (i.e. more dingers), the potential lack of in game power may not be as relevant as it once was. Stewart is the type of player for whom a “juiced” ball would benefit, and just looking at his career home run rates, it would be foolish to think that the ball didn’t have at least something to do with his 2019 power increase.

As I mentioned, while the AAA ball may be flying farther than ever, it’s the same ball that’s being used in MLB, so the power concern may not be as valid anymore, as long as the balls in MLB don’t become “un-juiced” all of a sudden. In fact, looking at the above table again, Stewart is hitting home runs at a rate in 2019 that is very similar to his rate during his brief time up with the Orioles last year. It’s probably more of a coincidence, but it’s worth noting.

As one would expect, Stewart’s HR/FB rate is also elevated compared to his minor league career levels (18.2%), though it’s comparable to his time at AA in 2017 (16.5%). Adding to that is the fact that he’s hitting more fly balls more than ever, except during his brief call up to MLB last year). This slight change in batted ball profile is encouraging, as Stewart should be hitting the ball in the air as much as possible, especially when considering the current nature of the baseballs being used in AAA and MLB. Adding in his ability to draw walks and put the ball in play, and the Orioles may have a decent player on their hands. However, they won’t be able to truly find out until they call him up. Fortunately, the Orioles are in a position where they can call him up and give him a long look in the big leagues. Unfortunately, there isn’t necessarily an obvious spot to put him.

Despite Baltimore having an (expectedly) abysmal season, the Orioles outfielders haven’t been all that bad. As a group, they’re tied for 19^th in fWAR (1.3), and tied for 18^th in wRC+ (98). Orioles outfielders have been “ok”, which is relatively good compared to the rest of the team. The one weak spot in the outfield has been in center, where DJ Stewart should not be playing for defensive reasons (not to mention the fact that Stevie Wilkerson is currently getting his audition in CF). The way I see it, there are two ways DJ Stewart can get regular playing time in the big leagues at the moment.*

1) Designate Chris Davis for assignment. This moves Trey Mancini to 1B and opens up a corner OF spot for Stewart.

2) Designate Renato Nunez for assignment. This moves Davis to full time DH, Mancini to 1B, opening up a corner OF spot for Stewart.

3) Option Rio Ruiz to AAA. Have Nunez be the primary 3B, move Davis to DH, Mancini to 1B, and Stewart to a corner outfield spot

*As much as optioning Joey Rickard should be considered an option here, doing that leaves the Orioles with only one person who can play CF (a person who had never played CF until a few weeks ago).

I don’t think Option 1 happens…yet, especially with Davis performing a little bit better lately. I also don’t think Option 3 is a great solution as Ruiz has been Baltimore’s 5^th best hitter (and someone who also warrants an extended look in the big leagues). Unless the Orioles see something in Renato Nunez that the results haven’t shown, Option 2 is the best bet, as Nunez has been well below replacement level in 2019 and in all likelihood wouldn’t be missed if claimed on waivers by another team.

It’s entirely possible that the Orioles continue to let Stewart get regular at-bats in AAA until there’s either an injury or a trade that opens up a regular spot for him on the major league roster. That would be a defensible move for the organization, but I think it’s defensible to call him up sooner than that. Not only does his performance warrant it, but he’s already 25 years old. Stewart probably won’t be a part of the next good Orioles team, but it’s important that the organization determines whether he can be a productive major leaguer. And while they don’t have a direct opening in the corner outfield for him at the moment, there are number of different roster moves they could/should make in order to get him in the major league lineup. It’s the only way they’ll find out.

The post It May Be Time to Give DJ Stewart an Extended Look in the Big Leagues appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

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Who has been the biggest surprise so far this year?

Zach: Whether it can be labeled a true surprise is debatable, but the start Adam Hall is off to at Delmarva is certainly encouraging—especially when you consider his offensive numbers in the context of him being a 19 year old at Low-A. He was solid last year at Aberdeen, but to see that production carry over (perhaps even at a higher level) to Delmarva is certainly encouraging. I have to think he will move up the organization’s prospect rankings in 2020 if this production continues.

Nate: I think the biggest surprise for me personally is probably Rylan Bannon. He hit surprisingly well in High-A for the Dodgers last year before coming over to the Orioles in the Machado trade, but then had a pretty disappointing 122 plate appearances for Bowie to end the season, slashing .204/.344/.327. Granted, the jump from High-A to AA is a big one, and Bowie is not a very hitter friendly environment, but his time in Bowie last year could have gone better. His numbers so far in 2019 look very much like his pre-Orioles 2018 numbers, which has been a pleasant surprise for me. If he can continue to hold this production level the rest of the season, the chances he becomes a useful major league contributor look more realistic.

Who has been the biggest disappointment?

Nate: Chance Sisco has definitely had a very disappointing start to the season, but I think I’d go with Cadyn Grenier. I know that he’s more known for his glove than his bat, but I thought he’d be better in Delmarva as a 22-year-old college product. It’s a small sample size to be sure, but his triple slash line isn’t pretty (especially with a .388 BABIP). What is more concerning is the strikeout rate nearing 40%.

Zach: Given his performance in spring training, I think there was some hope that Chance Sisco would get off to a better start at the plate than he has over the first few weeks of the season. Norfolk can be a particularly challenging environment for hitters early in the year, so perhaps his numbers will start to rise soon, but he needs to get going offensively.

Do you see anyone in the lower levels as someone who could be a sleeper and hit top prospect lists next year?

Zach: Perhaps Grayson Rodriguez can crack a few Top-100 lists if his dominant start is any indication of what he will do the rest of the season. I don’t necessarily think that would be a universal sentiment among the most prominent rankings, but perhaps he can land on a few lists.

Nate: I am going to double up on the Grayson Rodriguez love here and agree that he may be the most likely to end up on a Top 100 list or two, due to his talent, performance, and projectability (which spell check is telling me isn’t a word). I think Blaine Knight (pitching very well to start the season) could also move up into the Orioles Top 10, and possibly the very back end of a top 100 list if he can continue to pitch effectively and demonstrate some durability, which seems to be his biggest question mark.

What areas would you like to see the O’s focus in the draft? Position player/pitcher/prep/college?

Nate: Given that the team is so far away from contention, I think I’d ideally prefer the team to go with a few college players early and then focus on projectable high school players later in the draft. My reasoning is that while the college players in general may not have the upside of the high school players, they could arrive in Baltimore earlier, giving the Orioles some help in the next couple of years (possibly turning into pretty good trade chips) and giving the fans some young players to be excited about. Having said that, I don’t know whether the draft is strong in high school or college players at the moment, so that path forward may not be the best thing to do this year.

Zach: At what is still an early point in their rebuilding process, I would like to see the Orioles draft the best players available with their initial picks and not worry about a particular area on their depth chart. I don’t believe the farm system is strong enough in any area or areas that the Orioles can cherry-pick players by position. Instead, it’s at the stage where they need to stack it with as much as talent as possible. This upcoming draft is also one that most reports have painted as heavy on position player talent, so that could influence the Orioles’ early-round picks.

What would you consider a successful season for the minor league affiliates in 2019?

Zach: Continual development and improvement among the top prospects in the system—including starting pitching prospects—and better health for players that have dealt with injury issues in recent seasons. The latter stages of the season also have the potential to yield some positive outcomes, if the players chosen in the upcoming draft get off to good starts in their professional careers.

Nate: I’ve been on record as saying I don’t think there is much high end talent or depth in the minor league system prior to the start of the 2019 season, so I think having a great draft is the key to a successful season for the minor league affiliates. Having the 1^st pick (and the associated bonus pool that comes along with their draft position) can really give their minor league system a pretty big boost if they play their cards right. Other than that, I think a couple of developmental gains from unexpected players may provide some hope in the new front office’s ability to develop minor leaguers.

Do you think there are any pitchers in the higher levels of the minors that can help the Orioles rotation this year?

Nate: I think Zach Pop could find his way up to the major leagues and help out. He’s been striking guys out so far this year in Bowie, and has been good throughout his minor league career in inducing ground balls. That’s kind of a boring answer though since he’s a reliever. As for starting pitchers, there isn’t really anyone that excites me too much. Maybe Akin, but his walk rate concerns me a bit.

Zach: Keegan Akin is the one name that intrigues me, because he’s been so steady over the course of his professional career and is at Norfolk now. While I don’t believe Akin has a very high ceiling, he also doesn’t have to have elite stuff to make the Orioles rotation better. If he can be promoted to Baltimore this summer and at least keep the Orioles in the games that he starts, that will help the team and make him a viable rotation candidate for 2020. It’s worth noting that he’s not on the 40-man now, but I don’t believe that will be an impediment to him reaching the majors if he can fill a need.

The post Orioles Minor League Discussion With Zach Spedden & Nate Delong appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

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The minor leagues are more about development of the individual players so they can grow into major league contributors rather than the actual wins and losses. However, that doesn’t mean that wins and losses don’t matter. They definitely matter for the minor league organizations, as a winning team draws more fans, which is never a bad thing. Additionally, some believe that young players being a part of a winning culture as they’re coming up through the minor league system will benefits players when they reach the major leagues. While I’m not going to put too much stock in that notion, I’ll sit firmly in the “well, it can’t hurt” camp.

Let’s start with Norfolk and work our way down the minor league levels. The Tides are definitely looking a lot better than they were at the beginning of the week, as they are currently sitting with a record of 6-9 after starting this week on a 3 game winning streak. So far they’ve scored 67 runs (4.46/game) and given up 74 runs (4.93/game). Among qualified hitters, DJ Stewart (125 wRC+) and Stevie Wilkerson (125) are the only players with a wRC+ over 100, with Ryan Mountcastle (99) on the brink. Anthony Santander (68 wRC+), and Chance Sisco (14) are not doing much offensively so far. On the pitching side, the Tides have used 16 pitchers so far, and while the ERA looks ugly for half of them (Garbiel Ynoa has the 9^th best ERA at 4.76), their respective FIP’s at least look…a little bit better.

Up the road in Bowie, the Baysox aren’t faring any better, as they sit in last place with a 3-11 record. Their offense has been ok at scoring runs (4.31/game), but their pitching has given up an Eastern League leading 78 runs (5.57/game). The offense is being led by the names fans would have probably expected (and hoped) would lead the team, as Rylan Bannon (166 wRC+), Yusniel Diaz (113), and Ryan McKenna (107) top the team among qualified hitters (a rehabbing Austin Wynns is also contributing a 146 wRC+). The pitching has obviously been ugly, with 9 of the 15 pitchers being used so far this season sporting a FIP over 4. Hunter Harvey and Dillon Tate have both had especially disappointing starts, although their BABIP numbers and LOB%’s may indicate that they’ve been running into a little bad luck. Even Zac Lowther and his 2.00 ERA doesn’t look quite as good when you consider he’s walked 7 batters in 9 IP.

In comparison, the High-A Frederick are faring a little bit better, sitting in 3^rd place of the Northern Division with a 6-8 record. They’ve scored 76 runs (5.43/game) and but have given up 80 runs (5.71/game). Half of their wins have been by a single run. On the other hand, the other 3 games they’ve won have been by 6 runs. So they’ve kind of been all over the place. Four of the 9 qualified hitter on the team have a wRC+ over 100. Three of them are 24 years old, and a 24 year old doing damage with the bat in High-A doesn’t really mean too much. The other one is Jomar Reyes (110 wRC+), who is going through the league for the 3^rd time (he had 193 PA’s in Frederick in 2017). Don’t get too excited about Reyes’ luke-warm start, as he has yet to walk in 40 PA’s. With the lack of a defensive position, he’s going to have to do better to pull himself out of “non-prospect” status.  As for the pitching, it’s still not good. Michael Baumann has been impressive in his two starts (0.33 FIP, 16 K’s, and 1 BB in 8.2 IP) and DL Hall has been ok, although he’s been handing out a lot of walks (6 in 7 IP). Overall, the free passes are a big problem for the entire staff. They’ve give out 77 BB’s in 120 IP, which comes out to 5.78 a game. Amazingly, they don’t lead the league in walks, but they are only 2 behind 1^st place at the moment.

Remember how the title of this piece indicating that the Baltimore minor league affiliates are only mostly struggling? That’s because Delmarva is tearing it up. They’ve started the season 12-1, scoring 69 runs 5.31/game) while only giving up 45 (3.46/game). Everything is coming up Shorebirds, as their winning close games (8 of their wins have been a margin of 2 runs or less) and the only game they lost was by one run, and that went into extra innings after Lexington tied it up in the 9^th inning. They could easily be undefeated at the moment. Six of the 9 qualified hitters have a wRC+ of 100, with #7 (Daniel Fajardo) coming in at 98. The pitching has been easily impressive, as 10 of the 15 pitchers used have a FIP under 4.00. What’s especially encouraging at Delmarva is that the players who one would expect (or hope) would be performing are. On the hitting side, it’s Robert Neustrom (195 wRC+), Adam Hall (168), Cadyn Genier (125), and JC Encarncion (110). For the pitchers, Grayson Rodriguez (2.16 FIP), Blaine Knight (3.34), and Ofelky Peralta (-0.09 — yes, a negative FIP) are off to very strong starts. It will be interesting to see if Delmarva keeps winning, even though some of the names mentioned above will likely be promoted during the season.

So the Baltimore affiliates are (mostly) struggling, but no one really has to worry about it too much because the season is still so young. While it may be disappointing that Chance Sisco and (maybe to a lesser extent) Anthony Santander are off to such terrible starts, most of the other prospects (or near prospects) are actually performing well, or at least well enough that shouldn’t cause anyone to panic. Until we get a little further into the 2019 baseball calendar to see if anyone’s stock has changed, the only thing we can do is see if Delmarva can keep it going.

The post Orioles Affiliates (Mostly) Struggling Early in 2019 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

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Below is a cheat sheet that shows the opening day 40-man roster, how many times that player has been optioned, and when those option dates occurred. If there are any former readers of Camden Depot, this is pretty similar to what Jon Shepherd used to track with respect to the 40-man roster. I think it’s valuable to see where the team has flexibility and who may be at risk of being designated for assignment, should a new acquisition be added to the 40-man roster.

As you’re probably aware, there was some minor controversy around some of the players selected to represent the team on opening day, specifically with respect to Chance Sisco and Austin Hays. I’m not really going to spend much time discussing my thoughts on that, other than to mention that I think there are rational arguments that can be made for either decision. I tend to side with the front office on this one, in that Hays and Sisco specifically have things they need to work on in the minors and should benefit from their time in Norfolk playing every day.

As for the 40-man roster, the first thing that should jump out at you is that the Orioles are carrying 3 Rule 5 selections. In any other situation, this would put serious constraints on a team’s 25-man roster, especially if they’re trying to compete (see the 2018 Orioles…although the Rule 5 selections last year weren’t the reason for the team being terrible). With this team and their goals for 2019, having 3 Rule 5 draft picks shouldn’t be a concern. Plus, Pedro Araujo loses his Rule 5 status a couple of weeks into the 2019 season, and can then be optioned.

While the 40-man roster obviously doesn’t have a ton of talent, there are some interesting names that could boost their stock by the end of the season. There is also a lot of flexibility on the 40-man, as most players have options remaining, especially among the pitchers. Only Dylan Bundy*, Miguel Castro, Yefry Ramirez, and Mike Wright are out of options. Additionally, Alex Cobb and Andrew Cashner cannot be optioned due to accruing more than 5 years of service time.

While the 40-man outfielders also have a lot of flexibility (Mark Trumbo being the only one who cannot be optioned), the roster flexibility in the infield is extremely limited, with two of them being Rule 5 selections and only Rio Ruiz having an option remaining. However, outside of Jonathan Villar, designated any of those players for assignment should not cause much heartache among fans or the front office. Pedro Severino and Jesus Sucre*,  the two catchers to crack the opening day roster are also both out of options, so if (or when) Sisco and/or Austin Wynns get promoted to the 25-man roster, at least one of them will likely need to be designated for assignment. Again, this shouldn’t really cause any heartache.

Hopefully you’ve found this quick primer on the Orioles 2019 opening day 40-man to be helpful. I am planning on updating it from time to time over the course of the season.

*For those interested, some additional information on Dylan Bundy and Jesus Sucre with respect to their options. Bundy was able to be optioned a 4^th time due to the fact that his original 3 options were used prior to him accruing 5 years as a professional. He was in a unique position for this to happen because he signed a major league deal when he was drafted, essentially placing him on the 40-man roster his first full year in the Orioles system. As for Jesus Sucre, he has had an option used in 2015, but spent less than 20 days in the minor leagues, which essentially meant that option ended up not counting.

The post Baltimore Orioles 2019 Season 40 Man Roster Primer appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

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At first thought, it seems like a drop in ranking for the Baltimore farm system between last year and this year would be impossible, especially considering the trades that the team made during the 2018 season. Those trades (in theory) should have strengthened a farm system that badly needed it. So when seeing Law’s list for the first time, it’s understandable that readers would be surprised at the last place ranking. However, as most (if not all) of you know, baseball scouting is an extremely subjective exercise, even as the industry begins to incorporate more technology-aided data to supplement their observations and reports. With this being the case, it’s important that one takes a look at several other lists to help make comparisons, so that they get a better feel of what the general consensus is with respect to organizational rankings. Unfortunately, as far as I know, Law is the only writer at a major baseball news outlet/website who publishes a list of MLB minor league organizational rankings from top to bottom, for all 30 teams (I believe some other public outlets rank the top 10, but the Orioles aren’t going to be ranking that high, even in the most optimistic scenarios).

So without anything to compare these rankings to, let’s look closer into what Law says about the system and about some of the individual players that are in his rankings of the Baltimore top 10 (and more) prospects. While most lists included Yusniel Diaz, Ryan Mountcastle, and DL Hall in the top 100, Law only includes Hall in his list of top 100 prospects. Based on what I can gather with respect to what Law values in a prospect, I don’t think this is all that surprising. For instance, Law tends to value defensive ability, especially defensive ability at premium positions very highly. As such, he sees Diaz and Mountcastle eventually sliding down the defensive spectrum as they get to the majors, eventually ending up in an outfield corner (with Mountcastle specifically in LF or 1B due to his arm), where their hitting skills are more ordinary. For what it’s worth, the main reason he was one of the few prospect writers who ranked Fernando Tatis Jr. over Vlad Guerrero Jr. in his Top 100. While Vlad clearly is the better hitter (and he openly acknowledges this), the fact that he sees Tatis Jr. being able to stay at SS at least in the medium term makes him more valuable in his opinion.

Additionally, Law typically will favor prospects with higher ceilings (although I believe I may have seen that he is starting to not weigh ceiling as highly as he previously has). Either way, as he states, he doesn’t believe that the Orioles have any high-ceiling prospects. According to Law, Hall (obviously) ranks highest of Orioles minor leaguers as an above average starting pitcher. Not to say that isn’t an excellent outcome (it is), but personally, it’s not what I would call a high ceiling. Law also seems to view the prospects in the Orioles system as higher risk prospects, meaning that there is still a wide range of uncertainty as to whether or not they will reach their ceiling, even the lower ceilings that he appears to think they have.

So, do I think that the Orioles have the worst farm system in the major leagues? No, I personally don’t, but I also can’t say that with certainty because I don’t know the other minor league systems well enough to back up that claim with confidence. However, I also don’t think it’s unreasonable to see how someone can make that claim, especially someone who is known to historically value prospects a certain way. One scout/evaluator will value different attributes in a player than another scout, and based on what I know and believe Law values when scouting a player, I can see why he would rank Baltimore last. Similar to individual prospects, I believe that it’s best to probably look at these team rankings in “tiers”, rather than the specific ranking a team is slotted. That puts the Baltimore Orioles minor league system in the bottom tier of the league, which I don’t think many (but not all) people will argue about. Either way, I don’t think it’s worth getting worked up about though. At the end of the day, it is just one man’s opinion. It’s a very well-informed opinion, but still an opinion nonetheless.

There are a lot of other places to find differing opinions with respect to the Orioles prospects and I would encourage readers to do that. Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, FanGraphs, and MLB all have good lists to consult and compare. Additionally, you can also visit the very thorough (and very excellent) Orioles prospect list here at BSL by Adam McInturff, if you haven’t already. It’s well worth your time.

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