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Let’s run through the field:

1-War of Will: 15-1, Seemed like he’d be a top contender over the winter, but has regressed and hasn’t run in 11 weeks. If he wins, I won’t be cashing a ticket.

2-Tax: 20-1, Here’s a longshot I like a little. Pretty consistent speed figures, and a ran second in the Wood Memorial to Tacitus. I didn’t love that race, but it wouldn’t shock me if this one can get a piece of the exotics.

3-By My Standards: 15-1, The Louisiana Derby winner seems to be one the “buzz” horses this week, and I’m buying into the hype to be honest. Ran great in that Louisiana Derby win and his workouts this week at Churchill have been terrific. He’ll be somewhere on my ticket.

4-Gray Magician: 50-1, He won’t be on my ticket. Not much to say about this guy as he seems very much an outsider in here.

5-Improbable: 5-1, The first of Bob Baffert’s three headed monster. Ran a really strong second to Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby, and has every right to improve here. He missed a little training while Santa Anita Park was closed, and could be sitting on his best race. Definitely can’t ignore.

6-Vekoma: 15-1, Won the Bluegrass pretty impressively but something about him doesn’t scream Derby Winner to me. His awkward running style probably has something to do with it. Watch the Bluegrass Stakes on YouTube and you’ll see what I mean.

7-Maximum Security: 8-1, Really dangerous now as he might be the only true speed in the race. He won the Florida Derby in frontrunning style, and may be able to wire this field up.

8-Tacitus: 8-1, Wood Memorial winner has done nothing wrong and certainly can’t be ignored as a contender. I will not be using him, and could regret it.

9-Plus Que Parfait: 30-1, UAE Derby winner ran huge that day, but it was a very weak field that day in Dubai. Much much tougher here. I won’t be playing him.

10-Cutting Humor: 30-1, Todd Pletcher is on the outside looking in this Derby season as far as legit contenders go, but this one did run huge while winning the Sunland Derby. Hasn’t faced anything like these though, I’ll pass.

11-Haikal 30-1, Big time closer has pretty much fired every time, but won’t have the pace to run at this weekend. Wrong race for him since there’s just no speed, that’s a shame, because he has the ability to light up the tote board.

12-Omaha Beach: SCRATCH

13-Code of Honor: 12-1, Fountain of Youth winner could suffer from lack of pace like Haikal above. Needs that fast pace to run at as a big time closer. Needs to be closer to the front, but I’m not sure if he can.

14-Win Win Win: 12-1, This might be my top horse. A friend of mine pointed out to me how much trouble he got into in his last race, basically had to stop to avoid horses who were fading in front of him on the far turn, yet still re rallied to finish second. At 12-1, he might be too much of a bargain for me to pass up a win bet on.

15-Master Fencer: 50-1, No shot. If he wins, I have no idea what I’m doing. I wouldn’t bet this horse with your money.

16-Game Winner: 4-1, Baffert’s second monster will now likely be the favorite with Omaha Beach’s defection, and deservedly so. He was the two year old champion and has been barely beaten in his efforts of late. Like Improbable, he missed a bit of training earlier this Spring and has had to play catch up. Could be primed for a huge effort. A must use.

17-Roadster: 5-1, The Santa Anita Derby winner is the third of the Baffert triumvirate, and like the others, seems like a top contender. His wins though have been in very short fields, and he won’t have a clear path to the front with 20 horses around him. It’s risky, but I’m likely off of him.

18-Long Range Toddy: 30-1, Great name, and that’s something, right? Seems to have regressed a little of late, but is the only horse in the field that has beaten Improbable.

19-Spinoff: 30-1, I like By My Standards a little, and this one had the lead at the top of the stretch in the Louisiana Derby that By My Standards won. He could be a sneaky horse for the bottom of exotics.

20-Country House: 30-1, Improving colt for sure, but I just don’t see it against these. Check back on him in a few months. I see a big future here, but not in this race.

21-Bodexpress: 30-1, Gets into the field as the first Also Eligible. He’s still a maiden, though he did run second in the Florida Derby, but was no real threat to the winner. He shouldn’t be a threat in here either.

So i just wrote a ton of stuff and it would probably be wise to use the two Baffert horses I like on top and be happy with that. But of course, this is the Derby, and I’m looking/hoping for a bigger score.

That Being Said:

1st-Win Win Win

2nd-Improbable

3rd-Game Winner

4th-By My Standards

Probably a win bet on the top horse, and a 4 horse Exacta Box and 4 horse Trifecta box with all 4 choices. Good luck and enjoy the greatest two minutes in sports!

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Top 6 NFL Over / Unders:

Buffalo Bills: UNDER 5.5

Atlanta Falcons: OVER 9.5

Dallas Cowboys: UNDER 8.5

Washington Redskins: OVER 7

Indianapolis Colts : UNDER 7.5

New York Jets: OVER 6

Super Bowl: Atlanta over LA Chargers (90-1 right now for the record)

Games of the Week: I’ll do it in Star Ratings so we can keep track of how good/bad I do.

2018 NFL Games of the Week (Week 1):

5* Tennessee -1.5 vs Miami

4* OVER 48 Kansas City/LA Chargers

4* Carolina -3 vs Dallas

3* Cincinnati +3 vs. Indianapolis

2018 College Games of the Week (Week 2):

5* Purdue -16.5 vs Eastern Michigan

4* Colorado +5 vs Nebraska

3* Houston -4 vs Arizona

Didn’t have time last week for College OVER/UNDERS, but Mike Randall, Brian McGuire, and I did some in the first “Pedro’s Pickz” thread a few weeks back.

Join us at the board, and let us know where you agree or disagree.

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Baltimore takes the stage, as we see if Justify can follow-up on his Kentucky Derby victory.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

1) Quip: 12-1

Likely the best of the “new shooters” (horses that skipped the Derby to run here at Pimlico), Quip won the Tampa Bay Derby at 19-1, and finished second to Magnum Moon at the Arkansas Derby. His best races don’t really measure up to Justify or Good Magic’s best, but he should be plenty competitive on Saturday. 

2) Lone Sailor: 15-1

Lone Sailor ran 8th in the Derby, and seemed to be making up some ground before tiring in the deep stretch. He’s won over a wet surface before (his only win, in fact), so that shouldn’t be an issue for him on Saturday. He should be closing late, so if the speed doesn’t hold, who knows, he could shock the world. 

3) Sporting Chance: 30-1

D. Wayne Lukas is attempting to win his 7th Preakness, which is an amazing feat. If he pulls that off with this horse, it’ll be even more amazing. He did win the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga as a two year old, but that form hasn’t translated to his three year old season, as he’s been far behind horses like Good Magic, My Boy Jack, Flameaway and Magnum Moon. I don’t see it on Saturday.

4) Diamond King: 30-1

The winner of the Local Preakness prep, the Tesio, always enters the Preakness but rarely makes an impact. This horse is John Servis’ return to glory. He was the Trainer of 2004 Derby & Preakness winner Smarty Jones. I can only assume that this crew is just looking to pick up a 3rd or 4th place check at best. Pass.

5) Good Magic: 3-1

The Derby runner up looks like he’s the only legit challenger to Justify here. He hasn’t done much wrong in his career, finishing in the money in all 6 starts, including a win in last year’s Breeders Cup Juvenile. Trainer Chad Brown is the defending Preakness champion, as Cloud Computing won it last year at 14-1. He chased Justify all the way around the muddy track in Louisville and likely will do the same thing here in Baltimore. We’ll see if he can get over the hump.

6) Tenfold: 20-1

He’s only run three races in his career, but this well bred son of Preakness winner Curlin looks to be the real deal. Just not yet. i really think he’ll be a threat later in the Summer in races like the Haskell or Travers Stakes. i wouldn’t be shocked if he picked up a piece here at the bottom of your exotics, but i’m more interested in seeing how he looks down the line. 

7) Justify: 1-2

He just might be a monster, it’s that simple. There are some small concerns about a foot injury, but Bob Baffert has done his best to squash that since the morning after the Derby. He’s 2-2 in the mud as well, so that shouldn’t hurt him if the weather is what we expect it to be on Saturday.  It’s just really hard to find any weaknesses so far. Will be tough to beat.

8) Bravazo: 20-1 

Lukas’ stronger entry ran pretty well in the Derby, finishing 6th and getting a 91 Beyer Speed figure. He appears to be improving, but i’m not sure he measures up to the best in here. Could get a piece of the Trifecta though for sure. I’ve seen worse longhsots, that’s for sure. 

Not sure how to make money in this race to be honest, as it looks like Justify/Good Magic all day. 

That’s no fun though, so let’s bet Justify straight over a few longshots:

$200 Exacta Justify/Quip

$200 Exacta Jusitfy/Tenfold

$100 Exacta Justify/Bravazo

The Belmont will be much more exciting I think!

Good luck!

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1-Firenze Fire 50-1: Not many positives here, as his best races have been sprints, and his last Grade 1 win was last October. I’ll pass.

2-Free Drop Billy 30-1: Another horse who seemed like a contender as a 2 year old, but has regressed in his 3 year old season. Hasn’t been very competitive against the best of this bunch, though he was placed third through disqualification in the Blue Grass Stakes.

3-Promises Fulfilled 30-1: He’ll be on or near the lead for sure, it’s just a matter of how long he can stretch his speed. He faded badly in the Florida Derby, finishing ninth after setting fast fractions. I don’t see it on Saturday, though his Sire, Shackelford ran second in the Derby and won the Preakness during his three year old season.

4-Flameaway 30-1: Solid, hard knocker who has finished in the money in 7 of his 9 career starts. He doesn’t seem to match with these however, as he finished 8th in his only Grade 1 effort last year. He’ll be close to the front early as well.

5-Audible 8-1: Major contender from 2 time Derby winning trainer Todd Pletcher, this son of Into Mischief hasn’t done much wrong in his career, winning 4 of 5 starts including a very impressive win in the Florida Derby. Absolutely a top contender not to be left off your tickets.

6-Good Magic 12-1: Last year’s two year old champion isn’t getting as much respect in the odds as I thought he would. Great value at 12-1 considering he’s a Grade 1 winner and just won the Bluegrass last time out. This son of 2 time horse of the year Curlin is a top contender despite the odds. Don’t ignore.

7-Justify 3-1: Deserving favorite is 3-3 for 5 time Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert. All three of the wins have resulted in Triple Digit Beyer speed figures, and there’s only two other horses that have one Triple Digit figure. The only negative is experience, as no horse unraced at 2 has won the Derby since 1892. 

8-Lone Sailor 50-1: His best runs come from off the pace, and there’s likely to be a ton of speed in this race, so it’s safe to say that I’ve seen worse 50-1 shots in past Derbies. He’ll be flying late, so might be worth a few bucks at the bottom of your exotics. 

9-Hofburg 20-1: This improving son of Tapit ran a nice second to Audible in the Florida Derby and has every right to improve here. Another who was unraced as a two year old, so experience could be a detriment. He’s out of Tapit and a Touch Gold mare so distance will not be a problem. Ignore at your own risk! 

10-My Boy Jack 30-1: The Desormeaux brothers are back again with the winner of the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland a few weeks ago. He’s a very good closer, and that will help with all the speed in this race, but he’s never run well against this type of company, as his only wins have come in lower graded races. Possible horse at the bottom of your exotics but i don’t see him winning. 

11-Bolt D’Oro: 8-1: The “other horse” in Southern California would probably be the favorite if not for Justify. All “Bolt” has done is earn over a million dollars and win 4 of 6 starts, yet he’s virtually being ignored by everyone. He’s also ran three triple digit Beyer Speed Figures, and if you like Justify, you almost have to like Bolt D’Oro too. At 8-1 he’s a must play somewhere on your ticket.

12-Enticed 30-1: A longshot that I like a little in here. He has a pattern of running well every other race, and this would be the good one in the sequence. He ran a decent second to Vino Rosso in the Wood, and I feel like he’s sitting on a good one on Saturday. He’ll be somewhere on my ticket.

13-Bravazo 50-1: I can’t see this one getting a good look by most bettors, but i’d never talk anyone off of a Lukas horse on the first Saturday in May. He hasn’t done anything in his career that suggests he can win the Kentucky Derby, in fact, he ran 8th in his last start, and that was the best field he’s ever faced. 

14-Mendelssohn 5-1: The “mystery” horse who won the UAE Derby in Dubai looked awesome in that win, but the question as always with the UAE winner is, Who did he beat? These horses have never had any success in the Derby, but this one does feel a little different as he’s proven he can win on a dirt surface and has won a race in the states already. I may leave him off my ticket and live to regret it. 

15-Instilled Regard 50-1: This guy has had the “pleasure’ of chasing Bolt D’Oro and Justify around California all Winter and Spring and certainly didn’t embarrass himself. He’s a few notches below the best in here, but as I’ve said about a few other horses in here, i’ve seen worse 50-1 longshots. 

16-Magnum Moon 6-1: He’s 4-4, he’s a Grade 1 winner, and he’s trained by Todd Pletcher. So, why can you get $14 for your $2 win bet? Good question! His last race wasn’t as visually impressive as Justify or Audible’s last wins, but still, 4 for 4 is 4 for 4. One negative to me is that he usually wants the lead, and there’s a ton of speed in here. Might work against him. 

17- Solomini 30-1: Bob Baffert’s “Triple A” entrant has been in the money in all 6 starts, including two Grade 1 wins (he was placed third by disquliafication in one), so 30-1 is GREAT value. Baffert has a long history of having his less prominent runner running huge in the Derby when it’s not expected. In 1998, Real Quiet won the race for Baffert while his other horse, Indian Charlie was the favorite. Don’t ignore. 

18-Vino Rosso 12-1: The winner of the Wood Memorial is an improving colt, also trained by Todd Pletcher. The thing that stands out to me with him is that Pletcher’s longtime #1 jockey, John Velazquez has chosen to ride Vino Rosso over Pletcher’s other Derby contenders, though to be fair, he’s been on Vino Rosso in all 5 of his career starts, so it might just be a comfort thing. Something to keep in mind for sure. 

19-Noble Indy 30-1: The Louisiana Derby winner continues trainer Todd Pletcher’s embarrassment of riches, but this one is clearly a notch below is other contenders. He’s won 3 of his 4 starts, including the aforementioned Louisiana Derby, but hasn’t ever run in Grade 1 company, so this would be a pretty drastic improvement to win this race. 

20-Combatant 50-1: Here’s one that I can honestly say that if he wins the Kentucky Derby, I won’t be cashing a ticket. His only career win was in a maiden race last October. The win was at Churchill, so that’s good I guess. Not many other positives to me. 

Here’s the way I’m going to play the Derby

$50 to win and place on #9 Hofburg

$20 Exacta Box:

9-Hofburg

5-Audible

11-Bolt D’Oro. 

I’ll probably play a few small trifecta boxes and add in the folllowing:

7-Justify

12-Enticed

17-Solomini

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West Virginia -9.5 vs Baylor: What a fall from grace for Baylor. Seems like just yesterday that they were competing for National Titles with RG3 and crew. They won’t win a game in the Big 12 this year, and West Virginia needs to keep this positive momentum going after last week’s big win vs. Texas Tech. 

Army -6.5 vs Temple: I like this Army team, used them a few weeks back. They were having trouble covering the spread earlier this season but now have covered 2 of the last 3. Temple is so so, but I expect Army to run all over them in this one. 

Arizona -3 vs.Cal: Khalil Tate, remember the name. The dual threat QB has become and absolute MONSTER since coming in a few games back. The Cats have been a different team since then, and are a deserving road favorite vs. a Cal team that spanked Wazzu last weekend. 

Syracuse +17 vs Miami, Fl: I know, I know Syracuse is due for a let down after beating Clemson, but I have a feeling that this Miami team isn’t as good as their undefeated record indicates. I think the Orange keep this one respectable. Not calling for another upset, mind you, but it won’t be a blowout either. 

Pro:

Dallas -6 vs San Francisco: Zeke is back, for now, and Dallas is coming off the bye week. Weird season for the Niners, who are the first team in NFL history to lose 5 straight games by 3 points or less. They won’t cover here. 

Green Bay +4 vs New Orleans: This line is probably right without Aaron Rodgers, but Green Bay has been running this system for so long that Hundley, while obviously not Rodgers, should suffice against the Saints D. Taking a flyer on the money line as well on this one. 

OVER 56 Atlanta/New England: The Super Bowl rematch will be fun, but these don’t look like the same two teams that met up in February. The Pats defense is pretty awful,while the Falcons blew a 17-0 lead against the Jay Cutler lead Dolphins last week. I just see a ton of scoring here, with no clue who wins.  

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College:

Army -11.5 vs Rice: This is one of the better Army teams in recent memory, but they’ve been snake bit so far this season as far as covering the spread goes. This is the week it all comes together as they destroy Rice.

Virginia -2 vs. Duke: The Blue Devils were exposed last week against Miami after a fast start to the season. Meanwhile, Virginia is off to a great start at 3-1 overall and are finally playing their first conference game. 

Illinois +17.5 vs Iowa: Illinois is pretty bad. It’ll take Lovie Smith a few years to turn that program around for sure. I just think the line here is too high. Neither team scores a ton and both run a vanilla offense. I see it Iowa 20-10 or something similar. 

Virginia Tech -16.5 vs Boston College: The Hokies terrific defense against the Eagles anemic offense is not a good combination for BC, even at home. 34-0 Va Tech.

NFL:

Philadelphia -6 vs Arizona: I think Arizona is terrible, especially without Johnson. The line worries me a little to be honest, I feel like it should be higher. I’ll still use it here, but would feel more comfortable if the line was 7 or more. Vegas is’t Vegas for nothing. 

NY Giants -3.5 vs LA Chargers: Not exactly the marquee matchup of the weekend, but one of these teams will finally get a win. I feel like the Giants are closer to getting in the win column than the Chargers, plus they’re at home. 

UNDER 39.5 Baltimore/Oakland: Two weeks ago this looked like it was going to be a great one between two teams that looked like legit contenders. Not so much anymore. Derek Carr is out for a while with a back injury, and the Ravens loom pretty bad offensively. Expect this one to be a snooze fest. Oakland 13-7 or close. 

Good luck, enjoy, and remember as always, bet with your head, not over your head. 

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NCAA:

Florida State -7.5 vs Wake Forest: No way FSU can start out 0-3. Right? Jimbo gets these guys fired up as the Deacs suffer their first loss. 

New Mexico +2.5 vs Air Force: If Lamar Jordan returns (he’s probable), I like the Lobos in a mild upset. 

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Florida Atlantic -3 vs Middle Tennessee: The Blue Raiders have struggled mightily this season as Brent Stockstill remains out at QB. Look for FAU to grind out a win here. 

Mississippi State +9 vs Auburn: Are the Bulldogs the team that crushed LSU two weeks ago, or the team that couldn’t muster a thing last weekend at Georgia? I say they bounce back here and give Auburn all they can handle. 

NFL:

New Orleans -3 vs Miami: The fish traveled to LA in week 2, to New Jersey in week 3, and now they’re off to London. I wouldn’t wish that schedule on Coach K! Brutal way to start the season. Having Jay Cutler at QB doesn’t help either. I expect another blowout in London. 

OVER 48.5 LA Rams/Dallas: The Rams seem to be the “hot” team right now, they’re fun to watch, and Jared Goff appears to be a new man in year 2. Meanwhile, Dallas played much better Monday night in Arizona, and this one looks like a shootout.

UNDER 38.5 Jacksonville/New York Jets: This Jags defense is the real deal. The Jets offense is not. Pretty simple formula here, though I don’t love ever touching the games after a team returns from London. I’ll put the jet lag (pun intended) here aside for the Jags, as they win easy and hold the Jets below double digits. 

Have fun with these, please make fun of me if I go 0-7, and as always, bet with your head, not over your head. 

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1-Twisted Tom 20-1:

He won the local prep here in Maryland, the Tesio, at Laurel back in April, but doesn’t appear to match up well with the best in here. However, the key in the Belmont Stakes is always the breeding, as none of these horses will likely ever have to run 1 1/2 again. He’s out of a Thunder Gulch mare, and Thunder Gulch won the Belmont in 1995. 

2-Tapwrit 6-1:

Ran on nicely in the Derby to finish 6th, and should be able to get the distance. Todd Pletcher has won the Belmont before, and at 6-1 this horse cannot be overlooked. He won’t be my top choice to win, but he’ll be used in all of my exotics for sure. 

3-Gormley 8-1:

Ran decent in the Derby, fading to 9th after being 4th at the 3/4 pole. It was an unusually weak crop of three year olds in Southern California this season, but he was the best of that bunch. John Shirreffs has worked his magic before in big races (Giacomo & Zenyatta), but I don’t see Gormley winning here. One advantage will be multiple Classic winning jockey Victor Espinoza aboard, and he’s been on Gormley in all 7 of his career starts. 

4-J Boys Echo 15-1:

I liked him a little in the Derby, and he just didn’t run a lick after being bumped at the start. Now I used that same excuse after his poor performance in the Blue Grass Stakes. At this point, I’m not sure what to make of him. At his best, he’s capable of winning this race at 15-1. The pedigree suggests he can get the distance, out of Mineshaft and a Menifee mare means he won’t have a problem going 1 1/2. He’s worked really well since the Derby, and if he can stay out of traffic, he might be able to surprise. 

5-Hollywood Handsome 30-1

This is the only horse I can’t see winning this race. He finished 4th and 5th in his only graded races. Decent efforts, but not the makings of a Belmont winner, at least not on paper. 

6-Lookin At Lee 5-1

He’ll be the only horse in the field that will have run in all three Triple Crown races, so he deserves to be here. He did regress a little in the Preakness, but certainly didn’t run poorly, finishing 4th. One run closers usually don’t win the Belmont Stakes, but I expect him to be in the back and try to make his move down the stretch. Don’t see him winning either, but it wouldn’t be a huge upset. 

7-Irish War Cry 7-2:

He’ll be the favorite on Saturday, and is a quality racehorse for sure. Won the Wood Memorial in April very impressively and seemed poised to take on Always Dreaming at the top of the stretch in the Derby, but faded badly to finish 10th. He’s done that before and bounced back in his next race, so we’ll see if it’s a pattern or not. Won’t have any issues with the distance, as he’s out of Curlin, one of the best horses of all time at any distance. I’ll use him somewhere.

8-Senior Investment 12-1

Ran great in the Preakness to finish 3rd, and definitely improving each time out. He might be another that will relish the distance, however, seems to be another one run type closer like Lookin At Lee, and as I mentioned, those types normally don’t win the Belmont. But value wise, if you like Lookin at Lee at 6-1, the you should absolutely like this guy at 12-1/ 

9-Meantime 15-1:

Lightly raced colt out of Shackleford will likely be on the lead on Saturday. We’ll see how long he can stay on top. Jockey Mike Smith is one of the best in the business at nursing that speed, so at 15-1, he might be worth a few $$$$. He’s been in the money in all four lifetime starts, but obviously this is his biggest test to date. 

10-Multiplier: 15-1

The Illinois Derby winner ran ok in the Preakness, finishing 6th. He’ll need to be better in here \, which is possible, though I think the distance could be an issue. i can’t honestly say I like him that much in here. 

11-Epicharis 4-1:

The Japanese invader is the “hot horse” this week, and people are giving him a big chance in here. I’m never sure what to make of the foreign horses, but the last few that come to mind in the Belmont do usually run well. Sunday Break and Lani both ran 3rd in recent Belmonts. 

12-Patch 12-1

The “one eyed wonder” was a nice story Derby week but didn’t run well, but did have an excuse as he was bumped around quite a bit at the start. This horse, to me has the best breeding in the race. His Sire, Union Rags won the Belmont, and his Grand Sire on the dam side was the great AP Indy, who also won the Belmont. I said earlier that I always look at pedigree more than anything else when handicapping the Belmont Stakes, and at 12-1, I “have’ to play this horse on top. 

I’m going to take a shot with a win and place bet on #12-Patch, with these small Exacta Boxes:

12-4 (J Boys Echo)

12-7 (Irish War Cry)

12-8 (Senior Investment)

and 12-9 (Meantime)

If I win, dinner’s on me. Good luck!

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1-Multiplier 30-1: Ran a good race to win the Illinois Derby last out, but it doesn’t appear that he’ll be able to hang with these. Could be a monster down the line, but not just yet.

2-Cloud Computing 12-1: Ran very competitive races in New York all spring vs. some of the top contenders from the Derby a few weeks back. His speed figures rank favorably with the tops in this field, with the second highest Beyer as a 3 year old to Always Dreaming (96). Could use in exotics.

3-Hence 20-1: I liked him as a longshot in Kentucky, and was dead wrong, as he ran 11th and was never in contention. Steve Asmussen is taking another shot here, and why not. He’s definitely better than he ran in the Derby, but he’s not as good as I had hoped. 

4-Always Dreaming 4-5: The Champ is here! He’s looked flawless in workouts this week, and hasn’t missed a beat since arriving from Louisville. He’s a perfect 4-4 this year, and I don’t see anyone beating him at Pimlico. As close to a lock as there can be. 

5-Classic Empire 3-1: He had a rough trip in the Derby and still was able to rally to finish 4th. It’s a little deceiving as he still lost ground in the stretch, but I’m willing to forgive it and expect him to tun big on Saturday. He could win, but I would expect second or third. 

6-Gunnavera 15-1: Here’s a deep closer who could pick up a piece if there’s a speed duel. Now there’s not a ton of speed in here, but if the race falls apart, this guy could come flying down the stretch. 

7-Term of Art 30-1: No shot. he ran a decent third 2 races back, but the two that finished ahead of him didn’t even advance to the later stakes races in California. Finished 6th in the Santa Anita Derby, and was no match for Gormley or Battle Of Midway. Pass.

8-Senior Investment 30-1: Another horse who comes from far back, that would benefit from some early speed. Won the Lexington at 11-1 from off the pace. I don’t like him on Saturday, but maybe for exotics he’s worth a look. 

9-Lookin at Lee 10-1: He ran GREAT in the Derby, rallying for second at 32-1. Don’t expect another dream trip in here, but he just might have the talent to get it done. Definitely improving, and I give him a shot in here. 

10-Conquest Mo Money 15-1: Here’s one that I really like in the Preakness. He’s the only speed in the race besides Always Dreaming, and he’s been game as can be in every one of his four starts. I don’t think he will win, but if he goes wire to wire in here, i wouldn’t be totally shocked. 

I’ll probably play a few Straight Exactas with Always Dreaming on top:

$500 Exacta Always Dreaming/Conquest Mo Money

$200 Exacta Always Dreaming/Looking at Lee

$200 Exacta Always Dreaming/Classic Empire

$100 Exacta Always Dreaming/Cloud Computing

As always, bet with your head, not over your head. 

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1-Lookin at Lee: 20-1. The #1 post position doomed his Daddy (Lookin at Lucky) back in 2010, and it won’t do any favors for this one either. He does do his best running from the back, so hopefully he’ll get a decent spot to make a run. I’m not using him at all.

2-Thunder Snow: 20-1. None of the Dubai shippers have ever made an impact in the Derby, and I don’t think this one will either. He is however undefeated on dirt, which none of the prior UAE Derby winners were, so he has that working for him. Pass.

3-Fast and Accurate: 50-1. Expect him to be on or near the lead early. Then expect him to be in the back when they head for home. No shot.

4-Untrapped: 30-1. Won’t get the distance, as he faded in his last two races at 1 1/8. Not quite sure how his connections expect him to get 1 1/4.

5-Always Dreaming: 5-1. The likely second choice on Saturday looks FANTASTIC this week in workouts and ran the best race of his career in winning the Florida Derby, and is now 3-3 going two turns. His Sire, Bodemeister, ran second in 2011. A MUST use somewhere in your exotics, if not a win bet.

6-State of Honor: 20-1. Really tires hard, but really was no match for Always Dreaming in the Florida Derby. They were basically even at the top of the stretch and Always Dreaming ended up drawing off to win by 5 lengths. Looks pretty good this week, but probably won’t get the distance.

7-Girvin: 15-1. I liked as a live longshot after the Louisiana Derby, but a persistent foot issue has gotten me off the horse. The talent is there though, and if he’s healthy, could be a real threat at a big price.

8-Hence: 15-1. Here’s one to watch, and use underneath the winner. Really improving son of Street Boss won the Sunland Derby, not always the most important prep race, but note that the top 5 finishers in that race all improved in their next starts. Very tempting at 15-1.

9-Irap: 20-1. Speaking of improving after the Sunland Derby, all this son of Tiznow did was win the Blue Grass stakes at 24-1 in his next start. Getting good at the right time, but will need to be near the lead on Saturday to have a shot.

10-Gunnavera 15-1. This horse will not be anywhere close to the lead, and like his Daddy, Dialed In, will do all his running from the back of the pack. I usually don’t like to bet one run closers in the Derby, but they’ve won them before. This horse can’t get 25 lengths back and expect to pass 19 other horses in this race.

11-Battle of Midway: 30-1. It’s not a banner year for the Southern California contingent, but he ran his tail off in the Santa Anita Derby, and came up a little short. He’s improving, and could factor in the pace for sure. Not saying to use him, but wouldn’t be completely shocked if he ran big.

12-Sonneteer: 50-1. He’s a maiden (has never won a race), and his sire is a 2 time champion sprinter. So, what’s he doing in here? He did come on late in the Arkansas Derby to get a minor piece, and should be sitting pretty far back again in here. Would I be shocked if he ran on to complete your exotics? Absolutely not. The Desormeaux brothers were a great story in last year’s Triple Crown, can they repeat that magic again?

13-J Boys Echo: 20-1. A live longshot in my opinion. Didn’t really run a lick in the blue Grass but got into a lot of trouble early, and didn’t seem interested in running after that. He ran great in the Gotham Stakes 2 races ago, and if you’re wiling to ignore the Blue Grass disaster, he looks live at 20-1. I think I’m willing.

14-Classic Empire: 4-1. The Favorite on Saturday bounced back from some earlier season disappointment to win the Arkansas Derby, and looks to be on the top of his game. Super talented, well bred, great Jockey, great Trainer,Champion 2 year old,  and a Derby winning owner. All the makings of a Derby Champion. That being said, I might leave him off my ticket.

15-McCraken: 5-1. As of press time (Wednesday evening) this is my Derby horse. He was clearly the second choice headed into the Spring preps where an ankle injury sidelined him for a bit. His first race after the injury was a third place finish in the Blue Grass. Assuming he “needed the race”, he should be back in peak form and ready to run a huge one on Saturday.

16-Tapwrit 20-1. Working well this week but ran really poorly in the Blue Grass last time out. Hard to ignore just how bad that performance was, but if you’re willing to overlook it, he’s pretty good. I can’t look past it, and will pass on Tapwrit.

17-Irish War Cry 6-1. Very impressive winner of the Wood Memorial, and the only horse in the field with two triple digit speed figures. Threw in a clunker in the Fountain of Youth which had folks worried, but he quickly rebounded during that Wood performance. Definitely a top threat to take home the roses.

18-Gormley 15-1. The Santa Anita Derby wasn’t the most impressive race, speed wise, but at the same time you can’t take anything away from the winner. You may remember the Owner trainer combo of Jerry & Ann Moss, and John Shirreffs from the great Zenyatta back in 2009/10, but these connections also won the Kentucky Derby with Giacomo in 2005.

19-Practical Joke: 20-1. Good, solid, hard knocking horse, but I don’t think he can get the distance on Saturday. Jockey Joel Rosario won the Derby with Orb a few years back.

20-Patch 30-1. This one eyed horse could be a future star, but this is asking a lot of him, as he’s only raced 3 times in his career. Would be a really cool story though if he ran big.

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