JuCo teams have been playing for a couple of weeks. NCAA D-I teams are flocking to warmer weather tournaments. High School teams are opening up practices and scrimmages. All of this means that Draft season (Which never really ends) has begun in earnest for me.

Thus, this past week I dusted off my R code and updated players in my database, all in preparation for running the initial DRAFT Model scores for the 2022 class. And without fail…there were issues (it’s an annual tradition). But 5 minutes later, I had the scores that I will spend the next 5 months adjusting and updating.

For those who are new here, my DRAFT (Data-Reasoned Amateur Future Talent) Model is an analytical model that takes in biographical, statistical, and external ranking information to predict (1) the probability a player reaches MLB in their career, and (2) their performance should they reach that level. The final output is essentially a player’s expected Runs Above Replacement (RAR), with a top pick usually coming in around the 30-35 RAR range, a back-end 1st-rounder close to 5-10 RAR, and decreasing from there. This model has similarity to models that teams run internally, but naturally does not have access to many private data sources. I have been running this model for 4 years now, since I stopped working for the Tampa Bay Rays.

It’s important to remember that the DRAFT Model is just a tool for decision making, not the decision itself. The model will be right sometimes, other times it’ll be wrong. There are blind spots in the model (I’ll discuss two of them later), and even when I rank players I don’t explicitly follow the model’s output. But as it’s early, let’s look at the DRAFT Model’s Top-10 (Plus one conspicuously missing) players at the earnest start of the 2022 draft season.

1. Termarr Johnson, HS 2B/SS

Baseball America Rank: 2

DRAFT Model: 32.32 RAR

Termarr Johnson is a guy that Orioles fans have heard about a lot recently, and with good reason. He’s the best pure hitter amongst high school players with a double-plus future tool, and pairs that with plus future power. Throw in the fact that he’ll be just 18.1 on draft day and has some chance of playing shortstop, and you have an elite draft prospect.

While the DRAFT Model has few worries on him, I have at least a couple. Don’t misunderstand, I think Johnson has a potentially special bat and he should be a top-3 pick, but my worries are more towards taking him over Druw Jones (More on him later). Really, my worries come down to the likelihood that he winds out at second base, which I peg at higher than the model’s 26%. Additionally, as rankings become better at accounting for player age in their evaluations, age differences for high school players become less useful, but I’ll discuss that later. All told, I’d probably have Johnson ranked #2 in my personal rankings.

2. Jace Jung, Texas Tech 2B/3B

Baseball America Rank: 4

DRAFT Model: 29.18 RAR

Jace Jung is the guy I’ve been watching for the Orioles since last August, especially if they hadn’t gotten the #1 overall pick. The profile was there: college bat, major conference, great power, and not necessarily the top of the class so he has the chance of going somewhat underslot. The #1 pick might make it a little tough, particularly with the two high school stars ahead of him in external rankings, but with a strong season, Jung could claim the #1 spot all to himself.

In 208 PAs last year, Jung slahsed .337/.462/.697 with 21 home runs. He strikes out above expected (0.032 strikeouts above expectation), but not excessively and he walks and slugs above expectation (0.041 and 0.108 respectively). All that from the left side is definitely an attractive option for the Orioles as well. The only downsides particularly is he’s a little limited defensively, both in terms of range and arm. But ultimately that shouldn’t be too much of a concern, and I have Jung at the top of the college bats to start the year.

3. Druw Jones, HS CF

Baseball America Rank: 1

DRAFT Model: 26.51 RAR

Jones versus Johnson will be a debate all throughout the year. Right now, I lean Jones, specifically for two reasons. First, the age thing. Jones will be 18.65 on Draft Day, Johnson 18.1. In this day, when the affects of age are understood and better accounted for in external rankings, is 6 months worth nearly 3 runs of score? I tend to not think so. It’s something I’m working on adjusting in my model, or possibly in different variants of the model.

The second reason is a blind spot of the model: defense. The DRAFT Model doesn’t include any defensive ability projection. Frankly, there isn’t an easy way to go about it with the data I have. So, I just assume average defensive ability across the board. Termarr Johnson projects as a good defensive option at second base. Druw Jones projects as an elite option in centerfield; a true plus defender with a plus arm. He could easily add a half-dozen runs defensively at a premium position.

Beyond that defensive ability, Jones brings elite athleticism and speed. He’s always made contact, even if the swing isn’t as pretty as Johnson’s. The two names will be paired over the next few months, and I’ll likely change my opinion a dozen times, but for now I’ll give Jones a slight edge in my personal rankings.

4. Carson Whisenhunt, ECU LHP

Baseball America Rank: 21

DRAFT Model: 23.56 RAR

This is a classic “performance-over-stuff” score. Whisenhunt put up incredible numbers as East Carolina’s #2 last year, striking out 30.6% of batters and walking 8.5% in 62 innings. He didn’t have a dominant ERA (3.77), but the strikeout numbers speak for themselves.

His clean motion and three solid pitches give him a good chance to start. His fastball tops around 95, his curveball is decent, and his changeup is the best of the college class. He’s exactly the type of pitcher I tend to like; lefty performer with a good changeup. His frame has room to add weight, meaning maybe there’s room for a little more velocity in the fastball. With another good year in Greenville, he could be moving up the boards. Though I suspect I’ll still be higher on him than most.

5. Connor Prielipp, Alabama LHP

Baseball America Rank: 23

DRAFT Model: 21.02 RAR

If Prielipp wasn’t down due to Tommy John surgery there would be no debate on the #1 ranking, beyond the usual questions that pitchers bring. Healthy Prielipp brings a fastball that tops out at 96, a plus slider that gets whiffs over half the time, and a solid enough changeup. Combine the raw stuff with performance and you have a top pick, and oh boy did Prielipp have performance: strikes out 45% of batters, walks 6.5%.

That’s what the model sees. Even in only 28 IP, the performance is dominant enough to be indicative of a special player. What the model doesn’t see is an injured UCL. It’s hard to say if he’ll come back before the draft, and even harder to say what he’ll be. But players can come back from the injury, which makes Prielipp an interesting play in July. I’m guessing he’ll be a fringe top-20 guy for me in my rankings, and likely a late first-rounder for a team willing to take a little risk.

6. Chase DeLauter, JMU OF

Baseball America Rank: 6

DRAFT Model: 20.32 RAR

DeLauter had a big year in 2021. At James Madison, DeLauter showed power (.337 ISO), discipline (19.5% walks and 10.9% strikeouts), and somehow has double-plus sprint times despite being 6’4″-235. But of course small-college questions would remain so DeLauter went to the Cape and continued his domination. With the wood bat he slashed .298/.397/.589 with 9 home runs and more walks than strikeouts.

DeLauter needs to dominate 2022 just like he did in 2021 to keep those questions at bay. At the pro level, he’s probably a corner outfielder, even though he plays center for the Dukes and seems to have enough speed. But even if he moves to the corner, he has enough power and arm to be an effective player, and right now would be a no-doubt top-10 pick.

7. Brock Jones, Stanford OF

Baseball America Rank: 9

DRAFT Model: 19.96 RAR

Jones was ranked as a high schooler in 2019 (478th), but unsurprisingly made it to Stanford’s campus. Besides baseball, Jones played a little football for the Cardinal as a freshman, but focused on baseball during his sophomore year. It paid off with improvements in nearly every area: increased ISO, increase walks, decreased strikeouts, all with plus athleticism.

There is still some swing-and-miss in Jones’ approach, as despite improving he still struck out 22.3% of the time, 7.7% more often than expected. But he still has good bat speed and his 18.6% walk rate implies a good chance to continue improving in that area. All told, with the right improvements and a little luck, Jones could be a top-5 pick come July.

8. Hunter Barco, Florida LHP

Baseball America Rank: 28

DRAFT Model: 16.77 RAR

Early in the year college pitcher scores tend to be a little higher than college hitters. Why? I’m not 100% certain. Likely, it has something to do with (1) many pitchers are initially used in more limited relief roles, allowing for still good stats, (2) thus batters on the whole experience a rougher Freshman year than their pitching counterparts and (3) their performance in their draft year hasn’t washed out the Freshman performance.

All that said, the top 30 DRAFT scores right now have more college pitchers than we’ll wind out with. But Hunter Barco is used to being in this range. He was ranked 32nd in his high school draft year, made it to Gainesville, and has put up solid numbers (12% strikeouts above expected) in two years with the Gator’s rotation. Pair this performance with the SEC conference and you seemingly have a top-tier guy.

Problem is, the stuff again doesn’t seem to quite line up. Fastball sits in the low 90s and tends to be of the run-type rather than moving in the vertical plane. Some teams will have a problem with that movement profile particularly. The secondaries, a slider and changeup, flash plus. Performance is hard to argue with, so if scouts see an uptick in the secondaries they could lay their concerns about the fastball aside.

9. Elijah Green, HS OF

Baseball America Rank: 5

DRAFT Model: 16.23 RAR

Green has been in the draft spotlight for the past year. I was even tweeting about his score potential during the 2021 Draft.

So what’s he doing here at 9? Well, he does have some swing-and-miss issues, and struggled a little against quality competition on the showcase circuit last Summer. He’s also “older,” clocking in at 18.6 on Draft Day. I discussed the age issue earlier with Druw Jones, so I won’t rehash it here.

Green brings a lot to the table, everything else aside. He has the best power out of the prep bats, with the potential for double plus. His frame supports that power, coming in a 6’3″-214. And despite his size, he puts up plus-plus times in the sprints (6.5 second 60-yard dash time). He likely slots into a corner outfield spot, which definitely hurts his stock. That said, I would probably put him closer to 5th than 9th in my personal rankings.

10. Kumar Rocker, RHP

Baseball America Rank: 25

DRAFT Model: 15.14 RAR

Well here’s a familiar name. For those who don’t know Rocker’s saga, here’s the short version: Dominated competition over 3 years at Vanderbilt. Finished the year ranked 5th in Baseball America’s rankings prior to the 2021 Draft after beginning the year at #1. Drafted by the Mets 10th overall, they saw something they didn’t like in his physical and now Rocker’s back for another Draft.

The model doesn’t really have much precedent here. Aaron Crow had a similar path, highly drafted after three years in college and then pitching a year in independent ball after he didn’t sign. But the model isn’t really sure how to treat a player like Rocker. For that matter, neither am I generally speaking.

Rocker brings a fastball that can get up to 99, but he struggled maintaining velocity in 2021. His slider is double-plus, his changeup works well enough given the rest of his arsenal. But is he healthy? Who knows. He’ll probably slide down the DRAFT Model rankings as other players accrue stats, but given what he’s shown I’d still probably have him around 20th overall.

22. Brooks Lee, Cal Poly SS

Baseball America Rank: 3

DRAFT Model: 8.95 RAR

So I’ll be honest, when I saw this score I figured something was broken. I dug further and found that it wasn’t actually that broken. Lee does play a premium position in college, but there are some doubts he sticks there. His slash last year was an impressive .344/.385/.629, but it was against the Big West. However, it doesn’t seem to be enough to knock Baseball America’s #3 down to the latter half of the first round. What gives?

Well, the DRAFT Model hates Lee’s walk rate. That’s really it. It doesn’t seem like much, but Lee walks 7.4% of the time. That’s 5.5% lower than expected, which is one of the worst marks amongst players with a score. Does the model overpenalize this? Maybe. But it isn’t a great sign. I’d likely have him coming in around the back half of the top 10, but admit there’s plenty of potential for growth.

The Draft season will be long, and I have a bunch of plans to update small aspects of the model. This could mean a lot of movement for certain players, especially one’s whose scores are held down by individual specific factors (Like age). Regardless, the fun is beginning, and the countdown to the Orioles at 1-1 is beginning in earnest.

The post 2022 MLB Draft: Opening Weekend appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Eventually, players and owners will reach an agreement. It’s possible games will be lost, but let’s be positive and say that we get a full 162-game season. Now of course, there’s a downside to this; it means that the Orioles will (1) have to field a team next year and (2) play all 162 games (barring rainouts).

The Orioles aren’t going to be good next year. I know, shocking. It says a lot when the consensus “good” outcome for a team is winding up fewer than 10 games under .500. But that’s where we are. Building up talent takes time, and this teardown method is deemed by the Elias front office as the best possible option, under this CBA at least.

But still, there are ways to improve a team for minimal cost that don’t compromise the development of their young players, even if those same young players often are sometimes lacking in ceiling. With that in mind, let’s look at 22 low-cost players who the Orioles should be able to pursue on short-term deals. These players generally fall into easy-to-identify needs, starting with…

Middle Infield

Ramon Urias was a great find as a shortstop last year, coming in with a 115 wRC+ and deserving of some down-ballot Rookie of the Year support had he played a full 162 games (And if the ballot had more than 3 spots). Though I see him more at the less-valuable keystone, with just over one year of service time, he remains a low-cost asset with the potential for above-average production.

However, there are some problems. Urias is 27, which doesn’t exactly set him on the right side of the aging curve in the long run. Also, he isn’t a good fielder, as the numbers suggest he doesn’t have range. But most importantly for the purpose of putting 9 players on the field, Urias can’t play two positions at once.

Orioles’ second basemen were horrendous last year. Combined, including nearly 100 PAs from Urias, they put up a .192/.245/.282 slash line for a 43 wRC+. For reference’s sake, Mario Mendoza (The patron saint of poor hitting middle infielders) had a career line of .215/.245/.262 for 38 wRC+. At least Mendoza was generally considered a good fielder; according to Statcast, the Orioles ranked 28th in 2B defense (-6 OAA) and 29th in SS defense (-17 OAA).

As intriguing as Jorge Mateo continues to be, I’d prefer to look externally. The Orioles need to pair Urias with someone who can at least do one of hitting or fielding (Unlike last year), and Urias’ flexibility allows the team to pursue either middle infield spot. While the shortstop market is historically deep, it’s safe to say that both Carlos Correa and Trevor Story are unlikely options. Let’s look down a tier. (1) Jonathan Villar and (2) Andrelton Simmons are veteran options with varying degrees of production. Villar represents a more bat-first option, with a career 97 wRC+ and a .249/.322/.416 campaign for the Mets in 2021. Simmons, even separate of a disastrous 2021, has always been a bit worse at the plate (87 career wRC+). What sets Simmons apart is his defensive wizardry; it’s not crazy to say he might be one the best defensive shortstops in history. Either of these buys would probably command $8M-$10M yearly in a deal, assuming they would only sign for a single year.

But they aren’t the only options. (3) Jose Iglesias has always been more in the Simmons defense-first camp, no matter what he did in his BABIP-fueled 2020 craze. He’s a level down from Simmons in reputation and production, but also cost; probably $4M in this crowded market. (4) Josh Harrison hits the sweet spot more than most (13th in sweet spot percentage), but with no power behind it (17th-lowest average exit velocity). This limits his offensive ceiling, but he brings more to the plate than Simmons or Igelsias. That said, he’s a solid defensive asset, the fifth-best defensive 2B by Statcast (8 OAA). (5) Donovan Solano has never had more than 400 PAs in a season, but since 2019 he’s had a slash line of .308/.354/.435 in 953 PAs. He’s 33 years old, has mixed views about his defense (At best he’s neither positive nor negative), and his 2021 had a larger platoon split than league average (125 wRC+ against LHP, 97 against RHP), but it’s still playable. Either Harrison or Solano could command $5-6M on an open market.

Some outside the box thinking brings us to (6) Brad Miller. He came up as a shortstop, mostly played first for the Phillies last year, but his best position defensively since 2019 has been an admittedly small sample at 2B (3 OAA). He brings power at the plate (.227 ISO in 2021, 26th in exit velocity at 92.4 MPH), and over a full season the Eutaw Street shots he’s capable of should be worth the $3-4M he’d likely command.

Third Base

While second base was a black hole, third base was…well…also a black hole, but a smaller one. Instead of being the worst in baseball, the Orioles came in 29th in wRC+ (73), leading only the Phillies. The market isn’t as deep as shortstop, but Kris Bryant and Kyle Seager are there. Of course, neither are coming to Baltimore, so we’ll have to dig deeper. But the lack of depth means that there isn’t nearly as many diamonds in the rough either. However, it’s worth noting that many of the middle infield options could also hack it at third.

(7) Matt Duffy had his first good season since 2018. He’s always provided teams with plenty of positional flexibility, passable offense, and adequate defense. After the improved 2021, he’ll probably be due a raise over $1M he made last year. (8) Ronald Torreyes is a big reason why the Phillies were the worst third base group, but he’s a defensive plus, 29 years old, and has a huge platoon split (102 wRC+ against LHP and 48 wRC+ against RHP). As the short side of a platoon he can be effective and a cheap option, possibly even signable on a minor league deal.

Placeholder/Backup Catcher

This position is Adley Rutschman, but unless something changes in the new CBA he won’t be up until June. So, the Orioles need someone who can hold the fort for 60 days and then catch once every tenth day afterwards. I have a preference for someone who leans towards defense, which is hard to find in this group. (9) Stephen Vogt has been neutral defensive the past few years, and at least has a history of decent offense, 2021 notwithstanding. He’d at worst cost $1M-2M, which is admittedly around a million more than Jacob Nottingham for not a ton of extra production.

Starting Rotation

I’m not exactly a fan of Jordan Lyles for $7M. $4M, sure, but not $7M. That said, he does spin his fastball and curveball well, so maybe a focusing of the arsenal (He throws six pitches) and a grip adjustment may make the deal a steal. What I do like is the fact that the Orioles are willing to spend $7M on a pitcher who will likely not be on the next Orioles playoff team. It opens up a lot of possibilities for guys to fill out the 10th-worst rotation by FIP since 2000 and 5th-worst by ERA over the same time span.

(10) Matthew Boyd‘s slider has backed up the past couple of years, but he still brings a decent rest of the arsenal. He still spins a fastball decently and can be a solid 4.00 ERA/FIP guy, similar to Lyles. (11) Kwang Hyun Kim has been alright for St. Louis, but righties have killed him (.304 wOBA against RHB versus .228 against LHB). His slider and fourseam have been effective despite their lack of raw stuff and seems to manage contact well. He might need a second year to sign, but he’ll probably command a similar AAV. (12) Tyler Anderson spins his fastball, limits hard contact, and gets batters to chase (if not whiff). He tends to perform near his peripherals, so we can generally expect an ERA/FIP in the low-to-mid 4s. He probably regresses from a resurgent 2021, but still can be effective. (13) Brett Anderson got roughed up in 2021, but still throws one of baseball’s best changeups (-8 runs). He doesn’t strike anyone out, but also doesn’t walk many. All that tends to add up to ERAs/FIPs similar to this group’s low-to-mid 4s profile. All these guys probably wind out in Lyles’ range; $7M AAV, possibly worth a team option.

There are even a few stretches beyond the $7M range that don’t break into the Carlos Rodon range. (14) Danny Duffy isn’t as good as his 2021 line (2.51 ERA/3.40 FIP) suggests. But he upped his chase rate and whiffs in 2021, likely due to a small up in movement. All told, it suggests a $10M AAV, maybe a little more for a one-year deal. (15) Yusei Kikuchi had a rough 2021, but peripherals suggest he has more to give. His fastball, cutter, and changeup all play well, but his slider was rough. He turned down a $13M player option, so this suggests to me he’s looking for multiple years, 2/$22M probably is what it would take.

Of course, then there’s the bargain bin. (16) Vince Velasquez‘s FIP is lower than as his ERA, and his xFIP is lower than his FIP. He can still spin a fastball and is young enough to have something left in the tank. (17) Wily Peralta probably isn’t a 3.00 ERA pitcher like in 2021, but he also had the best splitter in baseball (-4.5 runs per 100 pitches). While a Sinker/Splitter combo might not play great with the Oriole infield, it’s still work taking a shot on. (18) Chad Kuhl got knocked around in Pittsburgh, but his most-used pitch is a pretty decent slider (-8 runs). All these guys are in the camp of a small major league guaranteed deal, or a minor league deal with 30-day opt out.

Bullpen

The Orioles’ bullpen matched the starters, turning in the season’s worst performance by both ERA and FIP (10th-worst bullpen ERA since 2000). I tend to follow the “relievers are highly variable so just don’t overpay for relievers” dictum. But even under this philosophy, there are plenty of intriguing options.

I was tempted to put (19) Collin McHugh as a “starter,” but the Orioles wouldn’t go for the opener strategy. Despite being a righty, McHugh shuts down lefties thanks to an elite slider/cutter combo. Pinning down his value is tough, as it is with all relievers, but he could be a highly tradable piece and totally worth it if you could get him for $6M or less.

(20) Ryan Tepera‘s 1.6 WAR in 2021 exceeded his previous career WAR (1.1 WAR in 234 IP). Consider it evidence for my previous statement about reliever volatility. But he’s another slider-first pitcher (-7 runs), and paired it with an similarly impressive fastball (-8 runs). He has a short track record, and thus I’m wary of paying him much beyond $4M-5M.

Among bounceback candidates, (21) Jake Diekman is interesting. He put up a serviceable 3.86 ERA, but walked too many people (5.04 BB/9) and gave up 10 homers in 61 flyballs. His fastball suffered in 2021 (1 runs after -15 runs from 2019-20), but his slider still plays. If he recovers the fastball, he could be a great value for minimal cost, I’m thinking $1M plus incentives.

Finally, (22) Jeurys Familia took a lot more damage than he should have, with a slugging against 79 points higher than the quality of contact suggested. He was in the 66th percentile of exit velocity, 68th percentile in xwOBA, 66th percentile in chase rate, and throws his fastball nearly at 98 MPH. His 3.94 ERA in 2021 means someone will pay him over the minimum, but he should be getable for $2M-$3M.

There’s always value for teams not willing to wade into the elite tiers of free agency. Sometimes it’s a lottery ticket hope, other times it’s a veteran who saw his market dry up. The Orioles have obvious holes, and seem to indicate a willingness to begin spending modestly for external help. Who knows what the financial landscape will look like in a few months, but when it comes time, hopefully the team will move on a few supplementary pieces.

The post Building For ’22: Short-Term Deals appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

One playoff team recently tried making moves towards securing their future, and the move/team combo should surprise no one.

The Rays have a long history with this type of deal. Every young star that has come through Tropicana Field has either gotten an early career extension or saw a number of their arbitration years bought out. For a budget-conscious team like Tampa Bay, this process is essential to keeping costs down and extracting maximum value from all aspects of their organization.

Wander Franco may be the best of all of these. Longoria, and Moore were both top-2 prospects in baseball. Snell was top-10, Davis, Crawford, Archer, and Lowe were top-100. Wander Franco not only was a #1 prospect, but a grade-80. His present/future grades by FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen are 60/80 bat, 45/60 game power, 60/60 speed, 50/55 field. He’s something we haven’t seen before in recent prospect history.

That said, Franco’s graduated from the prospect ranks this year, leaving Orioles’ catcher Adley Rutschman. While he’s not in the same league as Franco as a prospect, that’s not an insult as, again, literally no one has been in this sort of air since probably A-Rod. But Rutschman is the most celebrated catching prospect possibly since Joe Mauer.

With a similarly elite player being considered for an extension, it seems reasonable to wonder what it would take to lock up Rutschman to a similarly long-term deal. But before we get to Rutschman, let’s look at a…

Other Recent/Relevant Early-Career Deals

While the Rays have consistently used pre-arbitration deals, the practice is very common amongst many teams. Two weeks apart in 2019, Atlanta extended both Ronald Acuna (8/$100M + 2 options) and Ozzie Albies (7/$35M + 2 options). The two had a combined two years of service time, but an All-Star appearance for Albies and a Rookie of the Year award for Acuna. Before Scott Kingery started a game in Citizen’s Bank Park, the Phillies signed him to a 6/$24M deal, the record for a player with no MLB experience. That deal broke Jon Singleton’s 5/$10M deal the Astros gave him in 2014, again with no MLB experience. These two deals would seem to imply that it would be more prudent for the Orioles to wait and let him prove himself for a year in the majors, but neither Singleton nor Kingery are anywhere close to Rutschman in terms of regard. Closer to Rutschman’s status was Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert; both of whom were 60-grade prospects who signed extensions prior to playing a major league game. Jiminez signed for 6/$43M plus two options, while Robert got 6/$50M plus two options.

Rutschman’s Past and Future

Which brings us to the man himself. The 2019 Draft came down to a question of Adley Rutschman versus Bobby Witt, Jr. While it looks like there was no loser in the choices (Witt is currently ranked the #2 prospect in baseball behind Rutschman), the Orioles can’t help but be thrilled with their choice.

Other than a brief downspell in a short 47 PAs at High-A in 2019, Rutschman has done nothing but hit in the minors. 2021 saw him put up a 145 wRC+ in 358 PAs at Bowie, only to follow it up with a 142 wRC+ in 185 PAs at Norfolk. Across both levels, he showed impressive plate discipline (14.5% BB% and 0.88 BB/K) and a decent amount of pop (.217 ISO). Even better, he showed good defensive instincts and proved adept at handling a pitching staff.

He should’ve been in Baltimore in June. There was foolish hope he’d make a cameo in September. If there is justice (Or if justice can be negotiated in the CBA during the next week), he will be behind the plate of Orioles Park at Camden Yards on March 31st when the Orioles open the 2022 season against the Blue Jays. But…realistically he’s more likely to start out in Norfolk (To work on his…I don’t know…coverage of outside fastballs on the afternoon of the second Tuesday of the month when Mars is in prograde) and then debut in late May or early June.

Even factoring in the late start, he’s expected to be one of the best catchers in the game next year. The Steamer projection system has him chalked up for 2.7 fWAR in 398 PAs, good for fifth in baseball. From an offensive point of view, Steamer has him with a slash like of .260/.338/.448 that becomes a 113 wRC+, tied with Salvador Perez for third-best in baseball, behind Yasmani Grandal and Will Smith.

The further future is equally bright. In their 2021 Trade Value series, FanGraphs placed Adley Rutschman 24th, but more importantly included the 5-year ZiPS projections. In those 5 years, from 2022-2026, Rutschman is projected for a total of 16.4 WAR—in yearly order: 2.9, 3.3, 3.4, 3.4, 3.3—an impressive total to begin a career, particularly when you account for the fact that projections tend to be a little conservative by their nature.

Valuing a Prospect

The most difficult part of putting together an extension for Rutschman is the question of how do you value a player, particularly one with such little experience. FanGraphs assigns a dollar amount to each prospect future value grade between 35 and 70 for pitchers and position players separately. Under this scenario, as a 70-grade catcher, Rutschman is worth $112 million to the team in surplus value. For references sake, Wander Franco is worth $180 million surplus as an 80-grade shortstop. By the time you account for what Rutschman would make in pre-arb and arbitration over the time span, you’d be looking at a fair contract of around $135 million.

FanGraphs methodology is based on the dollar value per fWAR, averaged across all prospects of a certain grade. You could argue we should look at his value over his team control years times an appropriate dollar per win multiplier. Looking at the ZiPS projections, Rutschman’s 20 fWAR times $8M/fWAR yields a fair contract of $160 million.

But teams don’t offer fully fair contracts, particularly for pre-debut players. And there’s additional non-monetary benefits that can be included. With that in mind, let’s look at a few potential contracts.

Option 1: Buy out the pre-FA years

This would be the most disappointing deal in a sense. The Orioles gain no additional years, even if they give cost-certainty. Even though the his 20 fWAR potentially represent his entire pre-free agency service, the Orioles aren’t paying Rutschman $160 million or $135 million. If he went through the pre-arb salaries and arbitration process, Rutschman could probably expect $50-60 million at best—minimum for years 1 and 2, $4-6M for year 3, $9-11M for year 4, $15-18M for year 5, and $20-25M for year 6. But there is risk for Rutschman. Catcher is a tough, demanding position; Hall of Famer Carlton Fisk called it the Dorian Gray position. It would only take a small thing for Rutschman to fall well short of those production and salary numbers.

If the Orioles decided to buy out Rutschman’s pre-free agency service with no intention to adding on options or buying out some free agency, Luis Robert’s extension could be instructive. Even though they did retain options, the White Sox bought out Robert’s first six years for $50 million.

Now, Robert was a 60-grade prospect while Rutschman is 70-grade. Chicago got two club options included, but that honestly nearly evens out the difference in prospect grades. With this in mind, the Orioles would probably be looking at 6/$52M to merely get Rutschman to free agency.

Option 2: Buy out pre-FA plus options

The calculus changes when you start buying out free agency years. This is where teams hope to save major money, and they pay for it earlier. Rutschman’s pre-free agency years would cost more than the 6/$52 million proposed above, but the free agency years come at potentially a major discount.

For the sake of argument, let’s say that the Orioles try to tack on three options to Rutschman’s contract. A fully free agent Rutschman who performs as projected and continues to play catcher would likely be worth a minimum of $30M AAV over 3 years. The Orioles would likely want to get this down to around $22M AAV on these options, and this saving of ~$25M would probably cost around $15 million spread across Rutschman’s pre-free agency years plus butouts. In some ways, this contract mirrors Ronald Acuna’s deal, who signed for 8/$100M, plus a couple of options. Rutschman is a little more highly-regarded than Acuna as a prospect (65 FV at FanGraphs) and there are three years of inflation to account for, but Acuna was already a Rookie of the Year winner at the time of the extension. That said, I would guess this contract would cost the Orioles 6/$70M guaranteed with the potential to grow to 9/$126M if all three options were picked up.

Option 3: The Tatis-style Megadeal

Then, there’s the mega deal. The deal that staggers the mind. This February, the Padres signed Fernando Tatis Jr., their former 65-grade prospect turned star shortstop with two years of service time, to a 14-year, $340 million contract. The deal is truly staggering to this about; it buys out Tatis’ four arbitration years for $27 million and follows it with 10 years of free agency worth $313 million.

Conceiving a similar deal for Rutschman is difficult for many reasons. For one, it’s almost hard to conceive of the Orioles giving such a deal to anyone, particularly after the Chris Davis deal. Secondly, these types of deals are rare for any team, which makes finding comparables difficult. Finally, Rutschman is a catcher, which brings all the aging curve difficulties. The best catcher of this generation in Buster Posey just retired, without having even played 14 seasons. But let’s dream on a healthy and productive Rutschman who the Orioles sign to a 12-year deal right out the gate, taking him through his age-36 season.

Again, this deal would buy out all Rutschman’s pre-free agency years plus six years of free agency. Because of the risk catchers present, particularly in those final three years of the deal, Rutschman’s AAV over a six-year free agency deal is probably around $27 million (Conceivably $30 million in the first three years, $24 million over the second three). The Orioles still want this AAV to be closer to $22 million, for a savings of approximately $30 million. These savings likely would require paying out $15-20 million extra in the pre-arb years, with no buyouts likely given the length of the deal. All said, this comes to $12/200M, which would be a record for the Orioles, a record for a player with no MLB service, a record for a player with one or fewer years of service, and one of the twenty richest contracts in baseball by total value. It’s lower by far than Tatis by nearly $90 million if they were both the same length deals, but Tatis has a number of advantages. Tatis had two years of performance prior to his deal, will debut three years younger than Rutschman, and lacks the precipitous decline that catchers potentially face. All this is probably worth at least $90 million, even if Tatis comes with questions of his own.

Hope For the Future

Will the Orioles set records this offseason? Probably not. It’s much more likely that Rutschman comes up in May, accrues just a little under one year of service time, and then the question of extensions may be opened in earnest. With a good first year, he absolutely could set records, assuming Wander Franco doesn’t beat him to it, and he’d likely be well worth it. Of course the great unknown in all this is the CBA negotiations, which could entirely change baseball’s financial system. We just don’t know where it all will go.

Regardless of what he makes or where he starts the year, Rutschman stands likely to be a fixture for years to come. He should be the foundation of the next Oriole playoff team, a prospect like the team hasn’t seen since Manny Machado. Hopefully the powers that be recognize this, and succeed with Rutschman where they fell short with Machado.

The post “It is the first step that costs”: Extending Adley Rutschman appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

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2021 as a Whole

Like drafts so often are, this one was divisive for Orioles fans. The underslot at the top, the players chosen for the overslot money, the lack of pitchers at the start. All of these things drive fans up the wall.

Say what you will, the Orioles front office has a plan and they’re sticking to it. They are an analytical team, and at this point you could probably make a decent guess at the variables in their hitter model at least (And I have a few ideas about their pitcher model).

The team seems to buy into the “develop hitting buy pitching” philosophy. With that in mind, the front office prioritizes hitters in the draft. With those hitters, they lean heavily college where more data exists to evaluate the hitters. Power, expressed through exit velocities and ISO, runs the show with strikeouts not being a concern. Finally, age is a driver, with younger players being more highly valued. This has yielded a crop of interesting hitters with potential, but I do have some concerns with the approach.

Prior to the draft, J.J. Cooper wrote an article about Ty Madden and how his brand of pitching, particularly his fastball, is not valued by teams in the current mindset of baseball. The same day, Cooper penned another piece about how teams that draft for current trends may soon be behind the times. Finally, in ESPN’s media conference call on the MLB Draft, I asked Kily McDaniel about if we were reaching a point when age as a predictor in the draft were coming to an end. He expressed some frustration with teams so beholden to models that they’d remove a 19-year-old high school player (for example) from their Draft Board or bump an age-eligible sophomore up several rounds because they’re under 21 on draft day.

Now, I’m not saying that power is going away from baseball in the next few years. I’m not saying age will be useless. But it is important to remember that baseball evolves, even if predicting that next evolution is a bit of a fool’s errand. The next CBA is being negotiated this December. Many changes are being discussed, including the limiting of shifts. Coming out of those changes, the value of putting the ball in play could conceivably increase, and therefore strikeouts could again become more damaging from a hitting perspective.

All in all if I were put in the Orioles’ position, with the data and other resources that I currently lack access to, I can’t guarantee that I would draft any differently. However, given the data I have and the modeling choices I’ve made throughout the past couple of years, there are definitely choices that would give me pause.

That said, there is a lot to like about the players selected, even if I have questions. With that in mind, let’s look at these players in brief detail.

Colton Cowser: The Performer with Projection

I’ve made no secret my love of Cowser. If the Orioles were going to go truly underslot, he’s the guy I wanted. I love his hit tool, and think his line drive swing plus reported exit velocity numbers leaves room for power growth in professional ball. While most had him ranked around 11th-13th, my ranking of 8th overall fell more in line with Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen. He had Cowser as the 6th-best player in the class and once signed will be his 85th-best prospect in baseball.

Connor Norby: The College Bat

Connor Norby has nearly hit .400 in his three college seasons, and was the only D-I player to hit over .400 with at least 200 ABs this season. That alone should be enough to grab people’s attention. He’s started to develop a little pop this year, and seems to do a bit of everything (15 HRs, 18 SBs, 33/34 BB/K in 2021). Some evaluators liked him in the late first round, but he really had a realistic range anywhere from 30-50. He seems like a guy with a high floor who could be manning the keystone sometime in 2023.

Young, Toolsy, and Powerful

Reed Trimble and John Rhodes in many ways seem to be cut to be cut from the same cloth: College performers though with big strikeouts, wide range of evaluations, but are very young. However, look closer and some differences appear. Trimble is a switch-hitter whose 70-speed makes him a likely fit in CF with a chance to additionally contribute with his defense. Rhodes came off a COVID-shortened 2020 line of .426/.485/.672 and slumped in 2021. Had he hit closer to his 2020, say a line like .350/.440/.600, he’d probably be discussed as a 2nd-round pick and would’ve had a DRAFT Model score near 7.00. Both players definitely have warts around their strikeout totals and respective hit tools, but it’s easy to see what the Orioles are betting on.

Power Bat Bets

With the exception of Creed Willems and Carlos Tavera, the rest of Day 2 were college players. Including 13th-rounder Jacob Teter, they generally follow the Orioles’ checklist of power (without regard for strikeouts)

Of this group, Collin Burns intrigues me the most, probably because he plays a credible shortstop with plus speed. Most of these players are lottery picks and unlikely to contribute to the major league squad in any way, but hopefully a couple become pieces.

College Arms with Strikeouts

While the Orioles only took a single pitcher in the first two days, they totaled nine overall over the whole draft. Again, there’s a common thread through these players from an analytical perspective.

All these pitchers have unsurprisingly high strikeout rates, but most also have a tick above average walk rates. Tavera has the most coverage as the top pitcher pick, but also as the only pitcher chosen ranked in Baseball America’s Top 500. He has a chance to start with his average fastball and above-average slider, but these offerings may play up in an eventual bullpen role.

Of the rest, Gillies and Heid interest me the most. Besides their obvious statistical performance, their stuff seems like something the player development staff could work well with.

The Non-College Hitters

Remaining are Creed Willems and Trendon Craig. Willems has some plus raw and a plus arm but will have to keep an eye on his conditioning as he’s already 6’0″-225. He’s committed to TCU, but I hope the Orioles will be able to sign him. Trendon Craig comes from JuCo Louisburg and was committed to NC State. It’s JuCo stats of course, but he put up an eye-catching 2021 line of .420/.546/.790 with 14 HRs, 28 SBs, 33 BBs, and 22 Ks in 175 PAs.

Names for 2022

With 2021 coming to a close and BA’s initial Top 200 not coming out until February, I’m going to disappear for a while. I have a few projects that I want to work on with the DRAFT Model, with some ideas that could really shake up my results in the future.

However, I don’t want to leave you all with no ideas about 2022. There are interesting guys all over this draft, both in the college and high school ranks. Elijah Green is a name I’ve mentioned a few times, with some evaluators saying he could’ve gone as a top-10 guy in this year’s draft at age 17.

Termarr Johnson could surpass Green’s score depending on where his ranking winds out. As a SS who will be 18.1 on Draft Day, he could be looking at a score in the 37-38 range. Baseball America notes some worry about his projectable frame. Connor Prielipp had Tommy John surgery in May of this year and will likely miss next year. I wouldn’t want to risk it (And the Orioles probably wouldn’t either), but someone will eventually be interested in a guy who struck out 47 guys while walking 7 in 28 IP. Dylan Lesko will be this year’s Jackson Jobe, a high schooler with potentially three future plus pitches. Baseball America mocks Jace Jung to the Orioles. A career ISO of .356 will do that to you. Combined with everything else, there’s a chance for a DRAFT Score near 35 depending on the rankings.

I could continue, but again it’s early. There’s plenty of work to be done watching showcases, seeing a little college Fall Ball, and anticipating the twists and turns of the process. Thank you all for another great draft season, and look forward to next year!

The post MLB Draft: Closing out 2021 and Opening 2022 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

6:31 PM: Because I’m me and I am always wanting to tinker with the scores, I’m running one final run of the DRAFT Model scores right now. This last run accounts for Baseball America’s updated top-500 as a few players, including my 37th-ranked player Joshua Hartle, have withdrawn from the draft.

6:40 PM: So, updating this is taking longer than I thought. I can only run scores for players with an MLB Advanced Media ID number, and about a dozen guys in Baseball America’s Top 500 got their ID numbers in the past few days. So, bear with me here.

6:53 PM: Finally have the newest, and final, DRAFT scores for the 2021 MLB Draft. No movement at the top, or really many other places either.

6:55 PM: So 5 minutes before ESPN’s coverage starts, what would I like to see tonight for the Orioles? I just want the team to add talent to the system. It’s a cop out answer, but it’s true. There are routes I’d definitely prefer naturally. I’ve made it no secret my excitement about the prep shortstops who would likely be available at #5 in Kahlil Watson and Brady House. I’d be excited if they took one of the Vanderbilt arms. If they go underslot, there are a few guys I like but particularly Colton Cowser. The team has lots of options available at #5, and I don’t think many of them are bad.

7:05: MLB Network or ESPN? I’m kind of going both, though I think I prefer MLB Network with Vanderbilt coach Tim Corbin, Carlos Collazo, Jim Callis, and Jonathan Mayo.

7:06: Callis is breaking that Louisville catcher Henry Davis is going 1-1 to Pittsburgh.

7:08: With Davis going at 1-1, things honestly get pretty interesting real quick. Some implications may be that the Orioles suddenly have a shot at Jordan Lawlar, depending on what Texas does at #2.

7:14: For my thoughts on Davis…

7:15: Pittsburgh should be able to make a decent savings on Davis. If he takes #3 money, that’s $1.2M Pittsburgh can apply to #37 ($2M slot).

7:19: Now I’m really interested in what Texas does. I think Mayer is the best player in the draft, but most mocks didn’t have Texas having a shot to take him. So, do they like him better than local product Lawlar or Jack Leiter?

7:20: Texas takes Jack Leiter. Now the onus really hits on Boston. Most mocks had them on Leiter or Davis. Leiter’s score of 33.86 was one of the highest the model had on pitchers.

7:25: A quick check of the scores shows that Stephen Strasburg is the only player to beat out Jack Leiter’s score. Strasburg had a score of 37.60 in 2009.

7:26: Reports have the Tiger’s sticking with Jackson Jobe at #3 over Marcelo Mayer.

7:30:

7:30: Assuming the Red Sox take Mayer, that would sting a bit. I think he’s the best player out of this draft, #1 in my model. Kiley McDaniel views him as the most polished of the four prep shortstops at the top.

7:32: Yep, Mayer’s gone. My #1 guy with a score of 34.55.

7:34: Okay, here we are. Just have to wait…

7:35: Reports have the Orioles going Cowser. I can work with this!

7:38: I have a lot to say on this, but I’ll save it for On the Verge.

7:39: Well, at least I know I’ll be spending the rest of the evening thinking about where the Orioles will spend the extra money. I’m actually very fine with this result, though I know that there are many people who will be upset that the team went underslot. Let’s wait to see what happens at #41.

7:44: On random side notes, I wouldn’t recommend trying to prep for the draft or anything for that matter when dealing with poison ivy. Not fun.

7:46: Seems like Arizona will go Jordan Lawlar. Lawlar was my #3 DRAFT Model score, at 32.19. He may be a tough sign, since he’ll be sophomore eligible in 2023 and would be the early favorite to go 1-1 that year.

7:50: Rumblings are that the Royals are going to get weird…Frank Mozzicato, prep LHP from Connecticut.

This one is a surprise, but if you believe in the guy you’d have to take him here, because he’d likely not make it past #30.

7:55: Even though I’m typing the times, I can’t believe an hour has already flown by. Going to have to carefully watch the time so I don’t miss the podcast.

7:57: Since I’m actually being on Twitter for an extended period of time the first time in forever, time to update the profile bio.

7:59: Benny Montgomery is the report here. Baseball America was the low outlet on him, and his DRAFT Model score suffers accordingly.

8:05: Not a lot of consensus on the Angels right now. I have a feeling this will be a theme for teams on the night.

8:06: Wow, Sam Bachman. I mean, I like Bachman, and he has the 12th-best score at 18.77. He may have two pitches in the 70-80 range. But I am still surprised.

8:09: So it’s Rocker. #1 going into the year, my #5 with a score of 27.6. Shout out to my long-suffering grad school classmate and Mets fan K.C. You got a good one.

8:15: Sounds like Brady House is going down I-95 to Washington. #7 DRAFT score at 24.31. A really good value for Washington at this pick.

8:19

8:20: I’d like to get a couple more picks in before I have to go, but we’ll just have to see how long this Leiter interview goes.

8:25: Okay, I’m going onto the On the Verge podcast now. I’ll update when I can, and will be back afterward!

8:35: Well, we’re going to try and live link the video here!

9:40: And I’m back!

9:42: Lots of great discussion on the On the Verge podcast, including players who the Orioles might try to float down to #41. I’ve got my eye on the two Clemson football players, Bubba Chandler and Will Taylor. Also Carson Williams.

9:59: The Twins are about to take Chase Petty, a prep pitcher who has run it up to 102 MPH. He came in 27th in my model, but I would say he has some of the highest variance in the draft.

10:03: Elijah Green is the big name right now for next year’s draft. I’m going to try and see if I can quickly put together an initial score for him. Here’s a video in the mean time.

10:07: While I’m working, Kevin Goldstein says the price for Chandler is rumored to be $4M. If the Orioles save, say, $1.2M with Cowser they’d have $3M which would be a little short.

10:13: Time to see what my former employers do! Several familiar faces in that room.

10:17: There goes one of the overslot guys. I like Carson Williams. Model has him 30th at 8.15. I like him a few spots ahead of that.

10:23: Dodgers close out the first with Maddux Bruns. Was a big name earlier this year. Model has him 65th at 4.12. That’s about where I’d want him.

10:30: So, Elijah Green’s rough calculation for a DRAFT Score is 30.5.

10:30: The Reds’ comp pick goes to Jay Allen, 43rd in my model, though I’d say there’s a solid chance he does better than this.

10:32: Marlins take Joe Mack. Surprising somewhat. Mack was expected to go in the 20s, so the Marlins will have to overpay two guys ostensibly.

10:38: Ty Madden has been sitting for a while. Teams have concern about how the fastball plays, but at this point this is a great value. Madden’s DRAFT model score was 15.42 for me, 15th overall.

10:40: Let’s start thinking about tomorrow. The Orioles have an opportunity to go overslot at 41, and two of my interesting guys are there in Bubba Chandler and Will Taylor. James Wood, Izaac Pacheco, and Joshua Baez are big power guys who could also fit the team’s profile. Anthony Solometo is a prep pitcher who could also be interesting at that slot.

10:46: Divisional rivals Rays add MI Cooper Kinney, with a score of 4.3 RAR.

10:48: Mattheu Nelson goes to the Reds. He’s a guy who is really hurt by age-based models, including mine. He’s 22.5 years old, and gets knocked back to 1.91 RAR (154th overall). Ignoring age, he winds out closer to the mid-50s.

10:51: Final pick of the night, Noah Miller. Score of 3.79 RAR

And that’s it. Hope you enjoyed the first round, hope you listened and enjoyed the On the Verge podcast, and I’ll be back on Monday night On the Verge breaking down Day 2 with the guys.

The post 2021 MLB Draft: Draft Night appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.

A cousin to this law is McNamara’s Fallacy. Coined by Daniel Yankelovich and named after former Secretary of Defense, it discuses the challenges of basing decisions only on quantitative measures.

The first step is to measure whatever can be easily measured. This is OK as far as it goes. The second step is to disregard that which can’t be easily measured or to give it an arbitrary quantitative value. This is artificial and misleading. The third step is to presume that what can’t be measured easily really isn’t important. This is blindness. The fourth step is to say that what can’t be easily measured really doesn’t exist. This is suicide.

I am a statistician by trade. My job, when not teaching, has been to build analytical models that try and help people understand phenomena and answer questions from the fields of biology, ecology, engineering, medicine, and of course baseball. Throughout these projects, I’ve tried to keep the principles expressed by these laws in mind. In short, to borrow one last quote from creator of Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projection system Nate Silver…

The key is in remembering that a model is a tool to help us understand the complexities of the universe, and never a substitute for the universe itself.

So what do I do about this? I try to couch what my model says in the assessments of others. I watch whatever video on prospects I can find in my spare time. It’s what led me to spending the last couple of days covering part of the wall of my guest room with post-its (I didn’t have magnets) as I take all this information and shape it into a workable form.

What follows is my rankings of the Top 50 players in the draft. It is informed (Indeed heavily informed) by my DRAFT Model, but not exclusively determined by it. Other considerations include the external rankings of Baseball America, MLB.com, Fangraphs’s Eric Longenhagen, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, as well as my thoughts from watching tape, digging through performance, and adjusting model outputs that I think are out of line.

1. Marcelo Mayer, HS SS

DRAFT Model: 34.53 (1), BA Rank: 2

There’s a lot of debate not only over who Pittsburgh will take at 1.1, but who that player should be. There’s no generational talent, and one of the best demographics in the draft have four representatives. I think it should ultimately be Mayer at the top of both lists. Some may worry that his fringe-average run times indicate a future move off shortstop, but watching video I think he has the actions to remain there no problem.

2. Jordan Lawlar, HS SS

DRAFT Model: 32.18 (3), BA Rank: 1

In ESPN’s Media Conference Call on the Draft yesterday, I asked Kiley McDaniel about Goodhart’s Law in regards to age in analytical models, and whether we were reaching a point when age will be irrelevant in these models. He discussed his slight aggravation about models and teams that are overly beholden to age, and that we are indeed nearly to a point where the 19-year old high school player will be undervalued. Lawlar will be 19 on Draft Day, and should he fall like some mocks are projecting he could go to Vanderbilt and be an age-eligible sophomore in 2023. That said, the tools are all there to be an All-Star player, and I’m not going to let age keep him lower in my rankings.

3. Jack Leiter, Vanderbilt RHP

DRAFT Model: 33.85 (2), BA Rank: 3

At times the top-ranked player in the class, Leiter seemingly has everything you’d want from a topline starter: big fastball, impressive secondaries, and a feel for pitching. It wasn’t all rosy though, as his walk rate this season (Over 10%) was a little high and he allowed more home runs (14) than you’d like to see. However, in the aforementioned conference call, McDaniel stated that he sees something like a 30% chance Leiter turns into an ace, which is an incredibly high number comparatively speaking.

4. Kahlil Watson, HS SS

DRAFT Model: 28.13 (4), BA Rank: 6

Of the four prep shortstops, Watson has the highest floor. His quick hands allows him to have much more power than his 5’9″ frame would imply. He’s athletic, posts above-average runs, and plays a solid enough shortstop. Some have concerns that he’ll move off the position to second or even to center, but I think he works well enough where he is.

5. Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt RHP

DRAFT Model: 27.45 (5), BA Rank: 5

Has there been some prospect fatigue with Rocker? Yeah, probably. But there definitely is some concern that he racked up his strikeout totals by blowing college hitters away with big velo and sliders way out of the zone, which wouldn’t play up in the higher levels of pro ball. That said, you can only ignore a guy who strikes out over a third of batters for too long.

6. Brady House, HS SS

DRAFT Model: 24.02 (8), BA Rank: 7

If Watson has the highest floor of the prep shortstops, House has the highest ceiling. He’s been comped to Bobby Witt Jr., the #2 pick in 2019 and current top-10 prospect, but with a worse hit tool for the age. I understand and have my own worries about his final position and power-over-hit focus, but I think the hit tool will develop and he will stick at shortstop enough.

7. Henry Davis, Louisville C

DRAFT Model: 20.25 (10), BA Rank: 4

The draft is about value, and catchers are a tough one in that regard. The taxing nature of the position means that catchers play a dozen fewer games or so over the season. Also, with the advent of the robo-zone in the distance, I think catchers positional value will take a little hit since teams will be able to throw more bat-focused players back there. Hence my relatively low rank for Davis. Even if you viewed him as a third base candidate where he’d play more often, his model score still comes in just north of 20. All that said, I do like the tools that he brings to the game and think he will be successful. I just like the upside of the prep shortstop demographic more.

8. Colton Cowser, Sam Houston CF

DRAFT Model: 16.71 (13), BA Rank: 11

I am probably one of the highest on Cowser, with Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs also having him 7th overall. Some question his power potential as he has a bit more of a line drive swing, but that’s what the developmental staff is for. I think he can stick in centerfield with adequate defense, has an advanced hit tool, and ultimately deliver 20+ homeruns yearly with double-digit stolen bases. That’s a profile I’d bet on.

9. Jackson Jobe, HS RHP

DRAFT Model: 12.03 (17), BA Rank: 8

High School pitching is definitely a risky demographic, though in the update of the model it turns out it’s not as bad as previous iterations thought. Even further, when evaluators say that Jobe may have the best pure stuff in a draft populated by Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker you have to pay attention. Jobe brings potentially three pitches graded 60 or higher, but unsurprisingly needs a little refinement with his pitchability and command. However, the raw stuff means I can only knock him back so much.

10. Gunnar Hoglund, Ole Miss RHP

DRAFT Model: 19.22 (11), BA Rank: 19

I know he’s had TJ just a month ago. The model doesn’t see injuries, and while I do see them I can’t ignore what he was becoming. Before the injury he was ranked 8th overall in the DRAFT model outputs. He brought above-average stuff that would flash plus, plus command, and performance that rivaled Leiter and Rocker. There will be questions about how the stuff will come back, but with so many TJ pitchers able to come back to their previous levels it’s a risk I’d be willing to take at the right price.

11. Will Bednar, Mississippi St. RHP

DRAFT Model: 24.42 (6), BA Rank: 18

The College World Series MVP has experienced a major rise over the past month, going from a BA rank in the 60s to 18, with his score rising similarly. Scouts see a plus slider and a fastball that plays well, though some have command questions. The model sees a 37% strikeout rate compared to a 7% walk rate. I tend to lean towards the model, especially if a good player development crew gets ahold of him.

12. Sam Bachman, Miami (OH), RHP

DRAFT Model: 18.53 (12), BA Rank: 14

Bachman is very divisive, at least in one regard. Scouts like the 100 MPH fastball, and his slider is one of if not the best secondary in the draft. But he does lack a third pitch, and his delivery does scream relief risk. But he’s consistently thrown enough strikes to let people think he can be a starter. I tend to lean on the two-pitch combination with the hope of developing a third, and the worst case being he has the stuff to be an elite bullpen arm.

13. Michael McGreevy, UC Santa Barabara RHP

DRAFT Model: 23.69 (9), BA Rank: 16

Big numbers against mid-major competition is always a tough question. McGreevy has elite control, walking 2.5% of batters this Spring. His stuff is slightly above-average as a whole, with his curveball near plus. He has advanced pitchability, and is often mentioned with Shane Bieber, though that’s likely because the AL Cy Young Winner also went to UCSB. There is projection remaining for McGreevy as he stands 6’4″-200 and will be 21.0 on draft day. I’m leaning into the projection combined with elite control and performance, even at the mid-major level.

14. Sal Frelick, Boston College CF

DRAFT Model: 8.55 (26), BA Rank: 9

I see the appeal with Frelick; an above-average hit tool, plus speed, plus defense at a premium position. I just worry about how much he can produce with fringe power. With a career ISO around 0.170 with aluminum bats, there doesn’t seem like he has room to grow that too much given he’s 21. That said, I don’t want to discount everyone else’s views too much, and since everyone has him 11th or better this is as far as I feel I can drop him.

15. Jordan Wicks, Kansas State LHP

DRAFT Model: 24.1 (7), BA Rank: 13

I’ll admit I have a weakness for left-handed pitchers and strong changeups. Wicks ticks both boxes, with a 70-grade changeup that he plays up well with good arm speed. Pitchability-wise, Wicks has plus control and good command on his pitches, leading to an upper-20s strikeout rate and walk rate near 6%. The fastball is average and his breaking stuff is average, but the elite changeup is definitely something to play off of.

16. Ty Madden, Texas RHP

DRAFT Model: 15.27 (14), BA Rank: 12

The assessments of Ty Madden are a bit split. Some like the velocity on his fastball and his slider. Others worry about the lack of a third pitch and the lack of movement on the fastball despite the velocity. I fall in the latter camp somewhat, with the lack of movement leading to worse performance than you’d necessarily want to see.

17. Harry Ford, HS C

DRAFT Model: 13.75 (16), BA Rank: 17

Harry Ford is definitely unique. His athleticism and plus speed mean he could play in centerfield, but everyone seems to agree he could stick behind the plate. At the plate, he occasionally seems to press a little and didn’t have the best senior spring season. High School catchers are a risky demographic, but Ford’s flexibility mitigates that risk greatly.

18. Andrew Painter, HS RHP

DRAFT Model: 11.41 (18), BA Rank: 15

Painter is a big guy at 6’7″-220 with an solid feel for pitching and a solid arsenal that has one plus fastball and three more that are above-average. Given his size, he can generate some unique angles for his pitches that can give hitters fits. The questions for him come in the value of high school righties, as well as the track record of young pitchers who are that big.

19. Bubba Chandler, HS RHP/SS

DRAFT Model: 10.01 (22), BA Rank: 20

Chandler is one of two players projected in the first round who are signed to play football at Clemson. Just that alone tells you a lot about Chandler. The four-star quarterback has elite athleticism all across the board. His fastball touches 97, has a good feel for spin, and has surprisingly average command given his split focus. However, he is raw on the mound (Where most teams prefer him), and he could make a jump with a focus solely on baseball where he could refine and more consistently replicate his pitching motion.

20. Matt McLain, UCLA SS

DRAFT Model: 9.99 (23), BA Rank: 10

McLain went to campus after being draft 25th overall in 2018, and had a horrible freshman year. While things have improved, he still strikes out more than you’d want to see and and walks less. There’s a chance he ends up at second base, but I tend to believe he’ll stick at short. I see this as a reasonable place for him, but still think there are better values for similar players later on.

21. Gavin Williams, ECU RHP

DRAFT Model: 4.65 (59), BA Rank: 30

This is one where I actively think the model is wrong, and it’s easy to see where: the model gives Williams a 5% chance of being a starter. While I agree that Williams has relief risk, this is way too low. If we up his starter percentage to 50%, which is still pretty low for a first-round talent, he suddenly jumps up to a top-15 score. That’s a bit high, but it’s impossible to ignore his plus fastball and average to above-average secondaries.

22. Will Taylor, HS CF

DRAFT Model: 10.1 (21), BA Rank: 21

Here’s your other Clemson signee: a three-star athlete (QB-WR), two-time state champion wrestler, and soon to be 1st round pick. Right now his swing is more geared to hit over power, and I’m a little concerned about the leg kick in his swing. Much of one’s assessment comes down to how you think the raw power will develop, whether it’s fringe to above average. I think it’ll settle in to be a tick under average (45 or 47.5 if I were to put a number on it), so can’t raise him above the model.

23. Joe Mack, HS C

DRAFT Model: 10.44 (20), BA Rank: 22

Mack’s hitting profile is power over hit, with him showing a little more swing-and-miss than is ideal. His raw power flashes future plus, and if he reaches that level he could be an occasional All-Star. While he isn’t a defensive savant, he is likely to develop into a solid defensive catcher behind the plate due to his solid athleticism for a catcher and 60-grade arm.

24. Benny Montgomery, HS CF

DRAFT Model: 8.08 (30), BA Rank: 23

Some people, including ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, are really high on Montgomery, ranking him as a top-15 talent. There’s a lot of raw potential there, with 70-80 grade speed, plus arm, and plus defense in centerfield. However, everything comes down to the hit tool, and one of the scariest phrases in the draft is “if the hit tool develops” (Followed only by “if he can harness his command”). I’ll take a moderate tack and say the hit tool comes in closer to a 47.5 hit tool rather than the 55 that could make him a star.

25. Frank Mozzicato, HS LHP

DRAFT Model: 7.1 (36), BA Rank: 42

Baseball America is the low outlet on Mozzicato, with more publications having him in the upper 20s. The model underrates his chances of reaching the majors, and a small uptick in that department, commensurate with an uptick in rank, brings him to here. His plus curveball grabs your attention, while his age and physical projection give you something to dream on.

26. Anthony Solometo, HS LHP

DRAFT Model: 7.9 (31), BA Rank: 28

Solometo’s funky delivery will scare some teams off, but he is able to repeat it consistently and throw strikes from it. His arsenal is above-average, but may lack a true plus secondary depending on your view of his slider. When it’s on, it definitely is plus, and I tend to think that it’ll consistently develop into such.

27. Peyton Stovall, HS SS/2B

DRAFT Model: 8.15 (29), BA Rank: 33

Stovall’s fringe-average arm and low run grades means he’ll likely wind out at the keystone, taking away some of his value. However, much of Stovall’s value comes from the fact that he might be the best pure hitter in the class. He hit over .500 his Senior year, projects to have a plus hit tool, and some think he may reach 20-homer power. That’s enough to put a second baseman into the first round.

28. Chase Petty, HS RHP

DRAFT Model: 8.46 (27), BA Rank: 29

In order to generate velocity you have to have a fast arm, and Petty’s is one of the fastest this year. He has run the fastball as high as 102, and his slider grades out as a potential plus as well. What holds Petty back is his high-effort delivery and fringe-average control, leading to a high relief risk. A team that can harness the raw stuff could get a steal, but again, “harnessing control/command” is easier said than done.

29. Carson Williams, HS SS

DRAFT Model: 7.85 (32), BA Rank: 41

Williams put on 10+ pounds this spring and reaped the power benefits, rising up dramatically from February. Now, he grades out at average to above-average pretty much everywhere while playing a solid shortstop with a plus arm. That combined with being very young would make him a high-priority target for analytically-inclined team.

30. Jaden Hill, LSU RHP

DRAFT Model: 6.3 (43), BA Rank: 24

Another SEC TJ case. Hill has more relief risk than Hoglund, but his raw stuff may be superior. However, Hill has a shorter track record of performance, and decidedly less command of his stuff. Even so, I think he has a better starting percentage than the 33% the DRAFT Model predicts. Adjusting that closer to 55% (Again, low for a first-round talent) brings him up to this point.

31. Ryan Cusick, Wake Forest RHP

DRAFT Model: 7.24 (34), BA Rank: 39

Many outlets are high on Cusick, who has a 70 grade fastball and an above-average to plus breaking ball. This worked well in college to the tune of a strikeout rate over a third, but the lack of an average third pitch and questionable control leaves him here rather than the top 20.

32. Joshua Baez, HS COF

DRAFT Model: 7.83 (33), BA Rank: 31

70 grade raw? Check. 70 grade arm? Check. One of the youngest high school players in the draft? Great! Baez is a prototypical outfielder, but has a huge question with his fringe to fringe-average hit tool. I tend to lean toward the fringe-y side, which is why he’s here rather than in the 20s.

33. Jud Fabian, Florida CF

DRAFT Model: 3.44 (78), BA Rank: 27

Fabian scares me. He sort of reminds me of Jeren Kendall, the Vanderbilt CF who had 4 tools but struck out too much to be a five-tool player. Well Fabian strikes out more often than that, over 25% of the time. I see the other tools; the 60 power, above-average run, and elite defense in center field. But I’m not entirely sold.

33. Izaac Pacheco, HS SS/3B

DRAFT Model: 6.9 (37), BA Rank: 36

Pacheco has been noticed for a while due to his plus power, but he has some swing-and-miss to his game. He’s likely a third basemen in pro ball, but should be a solid defender there.

34. Ky Bush, St. Mary’s LHP

DRAFT Model: 8.61 (25), BA Rank: 46

Bush has a short track record with only one year at St. Mary’s, but he put up numbers there with a strikeout rate over 33%. He lacks an average third pitch right now, but there seems to be feel for his changeup and others see the opportunity for growth with some mechanics work.

35. Joshua Hartle, HS LHP

DRAFT Model: 7.15 (35), BA Rank: 37

Hartle is a lefty with room to add strength to his 6’5″-195 frame. Right now, his stuff is all average to above-average that plays up thanks to his solid control. However, he seems intent on heading to college at Wake Forest.

36. Matt Mikulski, Fordham LHP

DRAFT Model: 6.34 (42), BA Rank: 40

The Fordham Senior is hoping that teams lean on McDaniel’s disdain for age, as he comes in at 22.2 on Draft Day. Mikulski really jumped up boards this year, striking out over 46% of his batters faced after upping his fastball velocity and deception through a delivery mechanical change. It isn’t the prettiest delivery, and combined with his age it definitely lends to an increased relief risk. I think the arrow is pointing up for his though and with development could be a middle of the rotation piece.

37. Adrian Del Castillo, Miami C

DRAFT Model: 6.22 (45), BA Rank: 25

After starting out the year as the top college hitter, a .275 average with .120 ISO has dropped him way back. The biggest red flag is the loss of power, after having an ISO over .200 his first two seasons. There are still those who like the tools, but he has to recover some value as he seems unlikely to stick behind the plate.

38. Dylan Smith, Alabama RHP

DRAFT Model: 10.86 (19), BA Rank: 56

Smith was a late bloomer, but from a model perspective boy did he bloom. In his Junior year, he struck out nearly 28% of batters while walking under 5%, all in the toughest conference in the country. His stuff is mostly average with a slider flashing plus, and he is a little older than you’d like at 22.2. But he has room to add strength to his 6’2″-180 frame, and I’ll always bet on a performer with room to grow.

39. Jay Allen, HS OF

DRAFT Model: 6.36 (41), BA Rank: 38

Opinions vary widely on Allen, from a first-round talent to mid-second. Much of this comes down to the belief in his hit tool and the chances that he sticks in centerfield. As is, he seems like a solid power-speed combo with enough of a chance to land in centerfield that a team could get a good value.

40. Lonnie White Jr., HS OF

DRAFT Model: 6.24 (44), BA Rank: 32

White is built like a corner outfielder with 70 speed and plus defense. He seems like a decent bet to stick in center but his size will always make that a question. Otherwise, his above-average power makes him an interesting option at the start of the second round.

41. Steven Hajjar, Michigan LHP

DRAFT Model: 14.77 (15), BA Rank: 61

This is way higher than anyone else is on Hajjar. His stuff is average across the board, he has solid enough command, he’s been limited by a torn ACL during his freshman year, and his fastball is slower than his 6’5″-215 frame would imply. But at some point you can’t ignore that he struck out over 30% of batters over his career. I think the right team could bring an extra 2-3 MPH on the fastball, which would move it up to a 55, which already plays up due to its vertical movement. Combine that with a 55 breaking secondary and his already 57.5 changeup and that’s a starter’s profile.

42. Sean Burke, Maryland RHP

DRAFT Model: 6.56 (40), BA Rank: 53

Burke’s another performer who’s beginning to show the potential expected of him before TJ surgery in took his freshman year in 2019. In his career, he’s struck out over a third of all batters, though his walk rate is higher than you’d like. His delivery is low-effort and big fastball say starter, though his control questions could force him to the bullpen.

43. Ethan Wilson, South Alabama LF

DRAFT Model: 5.41 (50), BA Rank: 26

Wilson continued to put up solid power numbers in the Sun Belt, but still struggled to move up the model ranks. By adjusting his walk rates and ISO upward as a reaction to his slow start to the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, he winds out closer to this point. He is also limited by his high-probability COF landing spot.

44. Ben Kudrna, HS RHP

DRAFT Model: 5.86 (46), BA Rank: 47

Kudrna brings two nearly-plus offerings in his fastball and slider. People are more divided on the changeup, with some viewing it as fringe-average and others as above-average. His control is good enough, and he shows enough projection to grow on.

45. Trey Sweeney, Eastern Illinois SS

DRAFT Model: 4.24 (64), BA Rank: 55

Some outlets have Sweeney as a first-rounder. Others see him as a third-round fit. Such is the profile of a mid-major shortstop performer. His athleticism spells a move to third base for some, but I’m not so sure. Hence I moved up his shortstop percentage in the model. Regardless of position, his above-average hit tool and raw power gives him a chance to excel.

46. Tyler Black, Wright St. 2B

DRAFT Model: 3.76 (72), BA Rank: 82

Another mid-major middle-infield performer. Baseball America is by far the low outlet on black, and some even have him as a mid-first round guy. If you up his ranking more in line with other outlets and up his future second base percentage in the model (And correspondingly lower his corner outfield percentage), he comes in around 40. I think this is a better spot for his performance and talent than what the model implies.

47. Jonathan Cannon, Georgia RHP

DRAFT Model: 8.82 (24), BA Rank: 68

Cannon is another of the average to above-average stuff, excellent control crowd. He walked 5% of batters over his two years at Georgia, while striking out over 22%. He’s young, turning 21 the week after the draft, and has shown flashes of more. And as I said, I like young performers who show flashes of more, particularly if they did so in the SEC.

48. Connor Norby, ECU 2B

DRAFT Model: 2.76 (93), BA Rank: 44

Norby stepped onto campus in Greeneville and had a horrible Freshman year. The pandemic-shortened 2020 made it harder to put that behind him from a statistical point of view. His Senior year was excellent, with a .415 batting average and ISO over .200. Like Black, he gets too much corner outfield projection and not enough second base, so adjusting that with a few other adjustments to put his overall line closer to his Senior year brings him up to this level.

49. Joe Rock, Ohio LHP

DRAFT Model: 6.87 (38), BA Rank: 71

Rock came on big this season after a rough freshman year. This year, he struck out nearly a third of batters while walking around 7.5%. All his stuff is around a 55, but he may have room to add to his fastball given his 6’6″-200 frame and his young age (21.0 on Draft Day). Despite the solid walk numbers, the strikes don’t come easy, leading some to worry about the relief risk.

50. Thatcher Hurd, HS RHP

DRAFT Model: 5.78 (47), BA Rank: 44

It came down to Hurd and Chase Burns for this last spot, and I went with the guy who has better command and control. Not that Hurd’s stuff is particularly lacking. His breaking stuff grades out as above-average, and his fastball is average with room to add strength on his 6’4″-205 frame. His changeup even grades out as average to above-average. And to boot, he’s only been pitching for a couple years, working primarily as a catcher up until last summer. So there’s your opportunity for huge growth as he continues to hone his craft on the mound.

So there it is. For players outside this list, you can look at my DRAFT Model scores at Sabermetric Sandlot. On Sunday night, I plan to live update an article as the draft goes with my thoughts, and I’ll write summaries of the Orioles picks after each day of the draft. Finally, I’ll be a guest on the On The Verge podcast after the Orioles pick on Sunday night and on their regular show on Monday night.

All that said, it’s an exciting time for the Orioles, as the team has an opportunity to add exciting talent. After a year of preparation, speculation, and work, we’re finally here!

The post 2021 MLB Draft: Models Are Only a Tool appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

It can seem like a foreign concept at times; why pick someone other than the best player? The draft, as most MLB fans know, is a value game. Ultimately, a team’s goal is to add as much value to their organization as possible, and depending on the shape of the draft the best way to do this may be to take a lesser player at the top. It all comes down to finances.

For those who don’t know or need a refresher, every pick in the first 10 rounds is assigned a recommended slot value, ranging from $8.4M at the top pick (In 2021) to $142K at the back of the 10th round. All the recommended slots are combined into a team’s bonus pool, which is what a team can spend on bonuses for picks in those top 10 rounds. Additionally, any bonus greater than $125K for picks in the 11th round onward are counted against the bonus pool.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

A team can spend their bonuses however they like. They can pay the slot value, go overslot for a talented player who has fallen but isn’t willing to lower his signing price, or go underslot. That is, sign a player for less money and allocate the savings elsewhere, usually to a player who has high bonus demands. These demands are usually because many baseball draftees have unique leverage. A high schooler can go to a JuCo and enter the draft the next year, or an age-eligible sophomore can get drafted again the next year with minimal loss to value. The classic example is the 2012 Houston Astros, who drafted Carlos Correa with the #1 pick despite his #6 ranking by Baseball America. Instead of paying the full $7.2M slot, he signed for a reported $4.8M. The Astros then signed high schooler Lance McCullers for $2.5M, an increase of $1.25M over the #41 slot.

Underslot considerations can be very complicated, because prices are a weird combination of uncontrollable external factors (External rankings of talent, prices other teams are willing to pay) and unknown internal factors (How highly a team values a player). But in all instances, again, the goal is to maximize the talent that’s being brought in to the system. In 2020, the Orioles went underslot, bringing in Heston Kjerstad at the #2 pick, saving $2.5M on the slot bonus. This year, the Orioles’ strategy at #5 is much murkier, with some outlets speculating that the team takes a best player available approach while others contend an underslot like Harry Ford or Colton Cowser being more likely.

I want to do a more comprehensive look at this underslot question in the future, but for now let’s focus on the Orioles’ 2021 situation; with picks #5, #41, and #65 in the first two rounds. As always, for value and evaluative purposes we’ll be using the scores from my DRAFT Model. While not perfect, it shares the same spirit and similar components to models that teams use in this decision-making process.

The Shape of Talent

Whenever I refer to the shape of the draft, I am talking talent. There are other strategic concerns of course, both in the micro and macro sense, but nothing drives decision-making at the top of the draft like the talent curve.

Looking at this curve, you can see the benefits of underslotting begin to take shape. A top-5 guy will likely have a score somewhere around 25, while a #35 pick is looking at something near 8ish, combining to a score of 33. By underslotting and getting two guys in the mid-teens, we’ll again see a combined score in the low 30s.

The Best Player Available Scenario

Let’s look at the #5/#41 situation a little more closely, starting with the best players available approach. At the fifth pick, I would expect to get a player with a score around 25, depending on the luck of the draw. The distribution of the scores for the fourth-best player available to the sixth-best players in any given year is given below.

At #41, scores obviously drop off significantly, though there is still value there. Some years are better than others, but in the end at #41 we’re looking at a score of 6ish.

All told, these two picks combined yield an average aggregate Score of a little more than 30, with the distribution of possible scores given below.

Underslot Considerations

Now, the interesting part. To begin, we have to make a few assumptions. First, we’ll assume that all savings are completely added to the #41 pick slot. While not realistic, it makes our calculations considerably easier. Second, we’ll assume that any underslot signee is coming from either the High School or age-eligible demographics.

The last big question is how much saving the Orioles would be doing at the top. To make the answer as complete as possible, we’ll consider a few options: The Orioles save between $500K and $1M (Slots #7 and #8), $1M and $1.5M (Slots #9 and #10), or $1.5M to $2M (Slots #11 through #13). Putting this money towards the #41 pick, we wind out with a variety of slots available.

Putting all this together, we can see how underslotting works out. Overall, there isn’t a ton of difference in the results. Taking the best player available yields the highest median combined score, but a lower floor and ceiling. Underslotting yields a lower median combined score but higher ceiling. So whichever path the team takes, there seems to be some sort of tradeoff.

What Does This Mean For 2021?

What will happen Sunday night? It’s hard to say. There are way too many variables to pinpoint exactly what the Front Office is thinking. That said, here are a few scenarios that I could see, or at least ones that I would like to see.

• Best Player Available: At #5 (Going by Baseball America’s rankings), the best player available according to the DRAFT Model would be Khalil Watson (4th overall). At #41, Fordham LHP Matt Mikulski (43rd overall) or Wake Forest RHP Ryan Cusick (37th overall) would be possibilities. Combined, these two picks would be around 35.
• $500K to $1M Savings: If the Orioles try to save a little money, SS Brady House (6th overall, 7th in BA) would be the option to go. At #41, OF Will Taylor (22nd overall, 21st BA) and RHP Chase Petty (27th overall, 29th BA) would have to be brought back a bit. Combined, these scores come in around 33.
• $1M to $1.5M Savings: Colton Cowser (13th overall, 11th BA) fits well here, as well as in the $1.5M to $2M group. RHP Gunnar Hoglund (11th overall, 19th BA) could be interesting if the medicals check out and you have an appetite for risk. C Joe Mack (20th overall, 22nd BA) and SS/RHP Bubba Chandler (22nd overall, 20th BA) are two interesting prep options. In Hoglund’s case, the combined score would come in at a tick over 36 with considerable risk. For the two prep options, the scores are in the 25 range.
• $1.5M to $2M Savings: Colton Cowser (13th overall, 11th BA) fits better here from a bonus perspective. Will Bednar (10th overall, 16th BA) has risen up the rankings drastically after leading Mississippi State to a NCAA Championship. Harry Ford (16th overall, 17th BA) is another name the Orioles have been connected to that fits here. The Cowser-Bednar pairing comes in at 34.3, while Cowser-Ford stands at 30.

Each of these comes with risk, particularly in bidding players down from higher altitudes. Players like Bednar and Ford would have to stay on the board for 25 picks beyond their rank. This leaves plenty of time for teams to choose them and pay them, leaving the Orioles to improvise. But we’ll see where the draft takes us on Sunday night, and see what new members of the next Orioles contender join the organization.

The post 2021 MLB Draft: The Underslot Question appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

All models are wrong but some are useful.

That statement is ingrained in statisticians worldwide. However, the saying is just the section title to Box’s larger point. Box would go on to elaborate:

Now it would be very remarkable if any system existing in the real world could be exactly represented by any simple model. However, cunningly chosen parsimonious models often do provide remarkably useful approximations. For example, the law PV=RT relating pressure P, volume V and temperature T of an “ideal” gas via a constant R is not exactly true for any real gas, but it frequently provides a useful approximation and furthermore its structure is informative since it springs from a physical view of the behavior of gas molecules. For such a model there is no need to ask the question “Is the model true?”. If “truth” is to be the “whole truth” the answer must be “No”. The only question of interest is “Is the model illuminating and useful?”

So what does this mean? For me, it means that models need to always be evaluated, always need to be changed to reflect better data and new insights. The Rule 4 Amateur Draft is a very complicated, occasionally bewildering problem. With this in mind, I always hope that my model is at minimum interesting and at most, yes, illuminating and useful.

So what changed between the start of June and now? Well, yes, Baseball America updated their rankings to include 500 players. The College World Series has nearly been completed, with Vanderbilt and Mississippi State beginning the best-of-three final tonight. But from a DRAFT Model perspective, there are a few key changes:

• The college statistics models for strikeouts, walks, and isolated power were updated and rerun.
• The handling of plate appearances and innings pitched for collegiate players, essentially how we provide some regression to the mean, was adjusted.
• The effect of certain biographical details, particularly BMI and height, was a little more constrained.
• The effect of external rankings was changed.
• The model looking at the level a player reached in years 1 through 3 was reworked.
• The effect of collegiate statistics for lower-ranked players was overhauled.
• The model for the variability of players was overhauled.
• The pitcher usage modeled was completely overhauled.

Needless to say, it’s a lot of changes. I’m not going to comment on a player’s score changes too much because the models have undergone so much change. But that said, here are a few notes on what’s happened recently over the past month.

• Its finally happened: Jack Leiter’s score reflects where we thought he should be. He’s finally pitched enough innings to have confidence in his stats, and even though he’s fallen in Baseball America’s rankings, he’s now #2 overall with a 33.5 DRAFT Score.
• Prep shortstops are one of the best demographics, and the rankings both by Baseball America and the model. Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawlar, Khalil Watson, and Brady House are four of the top six players according to DRAFT Score.
• Jackson Jobe is getting top-5 buzz, but his score is dragged down by the uncertainty of prep pitchers. He’s ranked 17th overall, with a score of 11.99.
• Lots of college performer pitchers getting a boost in the latest rankings: Will Bednar (38th in BA, 12th overall DRAFT Score of 17.53), Steven Hajjar (61st in BA, 15th overall DRAFT Score of 14.45), and Dylan Smith (56th in BA, 19th overall DRAFT Score of 10.82).

With all that in mind, here’s the latest top-100 scores from the DRAFT Model. As always, you can see the full rankings (Right now up to nearly 500 players) at my blog Sabermetric Sandlot. In the next few days I’ll finally be adding player pages where you can look at the individual players in the draft and more detailed components of their scores.

The post 2021 MLB Draft: The Models, They Are A Changin’ appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Some years, 1-1 is easy. The elite talent is there, separating themselves from the pack; Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Adley Rutschman, etc. There are years like 2017. There’s a top tier of players—Hunter Greene, Kyle Wright, Brendan McKay, MacKenzie Gore, Royce Lewis—each with their nitpicky flaws but all seemingly elite, top-50 prospects in their own right.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

And then there’s this year. I don’t want to say it’s a down year, because I do think there’s depth to be had in this class. But at the top there’s hardly consensus, and each of the top options have major questions: Rocker has had concerning velocity dips at times. Leiter’s performance has come back to earth since mid-April and has walked 11.2% of his batters (MLB average is 8.9%). Lawlar lacks plus tools, and even with the high school shortstop demographic being comparably safe, there’s always questions with high schoolers. Davis has questions about his ability to stick at catcher, and if he doesn’t his bat really has to play up. It’s “bad” enough that presumptive 2021 top pick Elijah Green—outfielder from IMG Academy in Florida—is being described as “a slam dunk No.1 pick” if he were eligible this year.

So that’s where we find ourselves with seven weeks to go until the draft. The college regular season has come to an end, with conference tournaments beginning as we speak (I’m watching BA #50 Hunter Goodman and Memphis play East Carolina in the First Round of the AAC while I write). With so many player seasons ending more than a month before Day 1, it’ll be interesting to see how much movement occurs after, say, June 14th.

Before we get to the current top-50, let’s mention a few notes in detail…

• Brady House is a big winner in this update, improving his DRAFT score from 22.98 to 4th overall at 27.32 He’s a tier down from Lawlar and Meyer, as he should be, but is separating himself from the other prep hitter options. He’s definitely put himself into top-5 consideration, and may have made it difficult for the Orioles to consider him at #5.
• Colton Cowser also won big, jumping from 20.31 to 24.76 (6th overall). Since Baseball America has him ranked 13th currently, he’s a clear underslot target if the Orioles like his bat—slashing .357/.471/.637 in a mid-major conference—and particularly if they believe he can stick in centerfield.
• As was mentioned, Jack Leiter has slowed down a fair bit over the past 5 weeks. In five starts—four against ranked teams—he has totaled 27.1 IP, an ERA of 4.94, 43 K, 15 BB, and 9 HR allowed. When Baseball America expands their rankings to 500 players, I’d be a little surprised if he was still ranked #1.
• James Wood’s swing-and-miss worries have started to catch up to him, with his score falling by over 5 runs. I’m in the process of improving certain aspects of the model, and the changes that I foresee aren’t likely to help him.
• Gunnar Hoglund’s Tommy John surgery hasn’t been accounted for in the rankings, hence why he’s still 7th overall. He’s still a 1st Round guy, and could be a real good get for a team comfortable with his medicals.
• Lots of pitchers making big moves. Michael McGreevey is now 16th overall (DRAFT Score of 16.04, up by nearly 5 runs), Matt Mikulski is 20th overall (DRAFT Score of 13.67, up by 7.4 runs), and Gavin Williams is 31st (DRAFT Score of 10.67, up by 6.5 runs).
• I’m in the process of making some changes to several portions of the model. Players that I see being hurt by these changes are physically large players—particularly physically mature high schoolers—and players putting up big rate stats in relatively few plate appearances.

And finally, here are the latest Top 50 players according to the DRAFT Model. As always, you can find the more complete list at my website Sabermetric Sandlot. I’m working on getting a more complete list of draft-eligible players, as well as starting to create and update player pages for the players with scores.

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(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

College baseball has began to answer those questions, but those answers have come with another round of unknowables. What happened to Alex Binelas’ bat? Where the heck did Luca Tresh come from? And will anyone ever slow down Jack Leiter again?

As we come to the midpoint—at least back when the draft was in June—the DRAFT Model has had to make adjustments. For those who are new here, the DRAFT (Data-Reasoned Amateur Future Talent) Model takes into account biographical details, player evaluations, and collegiate statistics to predict a player’s positional profile, probability of reaching the majors, and production should they reach the majors. All this is rolled in the DRAFT Score.

In the latest update, the model has of course updated the college’s season statistics. However, I’ve also made a few adjustments to the model’s statistical underpinnings as well, and more are to come. But before we see the updated Top 100 players, let’s see who the biggest gainers and losers were from the past month.

Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi RHP

No, the biggest riser hasn’t been Jack Leiter but another SEC righty. As unhittable as Leiter has been, Hoglund hasn’t been far behind. In 43 innings, Hoglund has struck out 70 while only walking 11. His masterpiece thus far was an 8-inning, 13-strikeout performance in a 1-0 victory over Auburn. All this has resulted in Hoglund’s DRAFT Model score jumping up 9.5 runs to 21.85. This vaults him from 19th to 7th overall.

Hoglund uses his low-to-mid-90s fastball well and effectively pairs it with a not-quite-plus slider. Both offerings play up due to his plus command. He wasn’t as sharp in his most recent start against #10 Florida, making his start this Friday night against #1 Arkansas (Available on the SEC Network) very important to his rising draft status.

Henry Davis, Louisville C

Coming into the season, Davis was the clear #2 catcher behind Miami’s Adrian del Castillo. Two months of raking by Davis and a slight downtick in power numbers from del Castillo have now brought the question of the draft’s #1 backstop to debate.

Davis slashed .376/.481/.624 over 100 PAs this year, and has even improved in his defense, lowering his passed balls from 6 in 14 games last year to just 2 in 25 games this year. Pair that with a plus arm—he’s caught 50% of basestealers on 16 attempts—and Davis will be able to stay behind the plate.

Davis saw his score jump 8.1 runs from 15.1 to 23.2, moving him up 5 spots to 5th overall. The second half of the season will see Davis face stronger ACC competition, with series against #18 Florida State, at Virginia, and #17 Pittsburgh being on the April slate.

Sam Bachman, Miami (Ohio) RHP

Coming into the season, I would’ve questioned Bachman’s statistical profile. He put up big numbers, but against the Mid-American Conference. But at a certain point you just can’t deny numbers no matter who they are against. At some point, a 39% strikeout percentage and 2 earned runs is just good.

Watch the video and you can’t help but notice the low-3/4 armslot that generates a fair bit of tail on his fastball, which maxes in the mid-90s. His two secondaries, a slider and changeup, work well enough to generate swings and misses. Bachman’s score jumped nearly 8 runs to 14.04, good for 16th overall.

In an odd twist, Bachman has acted as Miami’s Saturday starter in recent weeks. But all the draft-heads will be watching Bachman the weekend of May 14-16, as Miami plays West Virginia in what will be his only regular season appearance against a major-conference team.

Luca Tresh, NC State C

There are jumps in score and then there’s Luca Tresh. His raw score increased by 7.5 runs over the past two months, but to really appreciate it you have to consider where he came from. Tresh started the season with a score of 0.87, good for 139th out of approximately 190 players. His new score of 8.43 is 37th, moving up a whopping 102 spots.

How did we get here? Tresh has hit incredibly well from a rate perspective, with ISOs of .304 and .285 in his Freshman and Sophomore years. However, these only came in a total of 74 plate appearances. In 81 plate appearances this year, he has gotten even better, slashing .328/.383/.671 for an ISO of .342. Even better, he’s doing all this with a relatively reasonable BABIP.

Tresh will have some questions to answer, as he has cooled down considerably over the last month. Since missing a series with Duke in early March, he has only batted .220 without a single home run. With the remainder of the season featuring series against #13 Virginia Tech, #17 Pittsburgh, and #18 Florida State, Tresh will have to work hard to capitalize on his hot start.

Jack Leiter, Vanderbilt RHP

He’s actually only the 9th-biggest riser, but how could we not talk about the pitcher who has generated the most attention placed on college baseball in recent memory. 16 no-hit innings will do that.

At this point, Leiter’s numbers are just absurd: 0.43 ERA in 42 IP. A 46.1% strikeout percentage. 10 hits allowed. He’s faced elite competition in Oklahoma State and then no-hitting South Carolina. So with all this, the question isn’t how he rose, but maybe why he hasn’t rose more?

Leiter’s score jumped 5.5 runs to 18.84, moving up 5 spots to 9th overall. What’s “holding him back?” From a model perspective, he hasn’t pitched enough; he’s totaled 57.2 collegiate innings. A mechanism of the model takes into account how many innings a player has pitched in his college career when working with his adjusted statistics. It’s mostly there to keep players who struck out the side in a single inning from dominating the board. As Leiter accumulates more innings this adjustment will fall away, meaning that Leiter will continue to rise up the boards even as he faces tougher competition as the season goes along.

Random Notes

To close out the big movers, here’s a few little notes on other noteworthy risers or fallers in the model.

• Jaden Hill’s injury, removing him for the rest of the year, will definitely keep him from rising up the boards. Prior to this, he had raised his score by 2.5 runs to 15.12, good for 14th overall. The score will likely fall as his Baseball America ranking also drops, but he will likely remain near a back-end 1st round score.
• As Baseball America increased their rankings to include 300 players, the DRAFT Model also added these players as able (Once the end of May hits I’ll be adding players from outside the Top 500). Leading these new additions is Troy Melton, RHP from San Diego State ranked 46th. Meltons’s incredibly young, as he won’t turn 21 until December. He brings a three-pitch arsenal to the table, and has pitched decently in a hitter-leaning environment.
• Kansas State lefty Jordan Wicks moved into the top-10, solidifying his hold as the best college lefty of the draft. And I love a lefty with a plus changeup.
• College pitchers have started to make their moves, as I expected they would given that last year’s shortened season caused them to start a little lower than they should have (due to the aforementioned innings pitched model component). Other movers in that realm include Joe Rock (Ohio LHP, up to 33rd overall with 8.91), Tommy Mace (Florida RHP, 22nd at 12.23), and McCade Brown (Indiana RHP, 50th at 6.17)
• Not much movement from the high school ranks, other than Clemson commit (For both baseball and football) Bubba Chandler. The RHP saw his score rise to 8.56, 36th overall.
• On the down side, no one has faller flatter this Spring than Alex Binelas. He’s a likely 1B profile with alright ISO (.230 in 120 PAs), but has only hit .221 this year and struck out more than you’d like to see for a 1st round corner bat. The power is there, but the hitting doesn’t seem to be and thus his score has dropped by 10.6 runs to 6.58, good for 49th in the model.
• Cody Morissette came into the year as a versatile MI who would hit for average and could make a move if he tapped into his power. The power hasn’t come on and he’s now batting .268 on the season, so his score is 89th at 3.32, down 4.3 runs from the start of the season.
• Adrian del Castillo was somewhat discussed when we talked about Henry Davis. del Castillo’s score is down 2.6 runs to 19.06, 8th overall, due to Baseball America dropping him down two spots to #5 in their rankings.

With that, here’s the new Top 100 from the DRAFT Model. I haven’t had a chance to make changes to the full results on my website, Sabermetric Sandlot, but those changes should hopefully come in the next few days.

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