Reasoning behind this is simple, Baltimore heads into 2020 with a steadily improving quarterback with a variable in his legs that will prove impossible to stop as he continues to improve as a passer.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

When watching great organizations, common themes come up when it comes time for free agency or trades. One of them is going after cheap players coming off of their most expensive prime years. Another would be trading for a highly productive veteran who is involved in a bad organization’s firesale.

Derek Wolfe comes to Baltimore after eight years in Denver, including a 2015 season where he was a key member of their Super Bowl team, which led to his four-year, $36.7 million contract that just expired after the 2019 season. Wolfe hasn’t been a superstar during the last four years, but he’s an solid player and that’s all Baltimore needs for a $3 million cap hit. He had seven sacks last year and by both Pro Football Focus and Pro Football Reference value metrics, he’s been a viable force throughout his second contract.

Calais Campbell is still a superstar though and a face we might see enshrined with his own Hall of Fame bust in Canton one day. Over the last four years, his PFF grades have all been over 90 and he hasn’t had a grade under 80 since 2013, his 27-year old season. He’s gotten better with age as he has seemed to improve every year. Considering he’s 6’8”, 300-pounds with elite strength, it’s not hard to imagine that Campbell will continue to age well. He’s precisely the type of athlete you would expect to age well. While he will be 34 this season, I don’t expect him to slow down.

The cost for one of the best defensive linemen in the NFL, a player who adds value with the ability to play inside and on the edge, was just a fifth round pick sent to Jacksonville. Having an extra late round pick, which may be unlikely to net a contributor in he draft, can be best utilized as a trade chip to find a veteran or to package with another pick to move up and select someone your team deeply covets.

Per PFF grades, Baltimore had two glaring issues in 2018: the pass rush was ranked 27^th in the NFL with a 64.0 grade and a tackling grade of 55.6, which was somehow ranked 16^th in the NFL, but evident of the lack of tackling skills in the NFL today driven by lack of practice time in general, plus lack of practice time specifically on the craft of tackling. Jacksonville was last in the NFL with a tackling grade of 35.9, disgusting.

With the two acquisitions they worked to solve the first issue and Matthew Judon is on the tag, although many have suggested he’s a sign and trade candidate. The team does have the cap space to keep Judon for the year, but if an offer blew them away, they’d be tempted to take it. It’d have to be draft capital that could replace his production because this is the second year of a multi-year Super Bowl window.

And that’s part of the equation on a Judon trade, say the Ravens can get a second for him and use that on an edge rusher that becomes a low-cost producer for the next four years, that’s a huge value. If the team believes Judon’s jump forward in 2019 was a sign of things to come and they can agree on a number, then I’d trust the organization’s judgement, but with five picks in the first three rounds, plus whatever they might get from Judon, they’d have multiple cracks at replacing him. The team currently has nine total draft picks, which they could trade back and turn into more as well.

Thinking on the value of trading Judon, the decision to retain him isn’t just a 2020 decision. It’s the difference between potentially getting an earlier pick in the draft now, rather than waiting for him to leave and receive a compensatory pick. Or they could sign him to an extension, then have a veteran expense locked in.

Considering the $15.8 million franchise tag that he’s on, in his case, that might increase the rate of what the Ravens are really trying to pay him. He’s a very good edge rusher, but not a great one, and paying a player like Matt Judon $16 million a year isn’t something I expect a franchise like Baltimore to do. Not when they’ve already made moves and have the draft picks to help facilitate moving on from him.

Value isn’t just in the value of a draft pick. Say the team gets a second for Judon and drafts a edge defender with that pick, that’s now a player who might be an extreme value on his rookie contract for four years versus paying Judon high costs for three to five more years.

Something the top organizations understand is cycling interior defensive linemen and edge rushers to keep the legs that power the attack on the quarterback fresh, which is part of a trend of organizations trading top defensive line talent on franchise tags like Dee Ford, Frank Clark, and Jadeveon Clowney in recent memory. Yannick Ngakoue of the Jaguars may be another. DeForest Buckner’s trade from the San Francisco to Indianapolis is a current example of a defensive lineman under contract being moved, while Khalil Mack got his wish out of Oakland before the 2018 season in the trade to the Bears. Second contract veteran Olivier Vernon just got traded from the Giants to the Browns last offseason.

Wide receiver has been another market where we’ve seen veteran player movement via trades. These last two offseasons saw trades of Odell Beckham, DeAndre Hopkins, Brandin Cooks, and Stefan Diggs.

The issue at both of these positions is an understanding of veteran production, positional value, and styles of spending at the position.

Organizations understand they don’t want defensive ends playing over 90% of snaps, but instead want a group of 7-8 linemen cycling through and playing between 30% and 65% of snaps. Similarly at wide receiver, many are recognizing that a spread of spending and a deep group of pass catchers via tight ends, slot receivers, and pass catching running backs is likely a more productive strategy than investing heavily in one singular player. In both cases, a multitude of mismatches and productive players tends to prove to be more productive for the team than a singular, high paid “star.”

Judon isn’t a star, but a trade of Judon is along this principle. The Ravens feel like an organization that would know better than to put an investment of more than $14 million per year in a player like Judon. And trading away a player like, someone you’d rather not pay long-term because you have options, is on principle with what we’ve seen around the league.

Or, they could keep him for another year, then let him walk in free agency and get a compensatory pick back. Or they could keep him at a reasonable rate. The cap is due to explode next offseason and the team will have a ton of cap space.

With the roster already in place, all core and ancillary needs that still exist could be solved via the draft to put this team in prime position to win a Super Bowl. This is what a potential Super Bowl champion looks like heading into a draft. There are no desperate needs and, while some draft picks will become starters, this team could compete for a championship as it stands now.

In free agency they let linebackers Patrick Onwuasor and Josh Bynes walk. Onwuasor had failing grades against the run and pass with a 48.7 tackling grade. Bynes played with a level of competency that earned him a one-year, $1.6 million deal. Together, they represent 864 lost snaps at linebacker, which leads me to believing that linebacker should probably the first priority in the draft, especially with how bad the tackling was in 2019.

The loss of Yanda moves the interior line up the list of concerns, while wide receiver is still a concern, but seeing mock drafts sending linebackers Kenneth Murray of Oklahoma or Patrick Queen of LSU make me feel like those would be the key additions that take this team over the top.

Of course, spending the 28^th pick in the draft on a receiver or an interior offensive lineman is also a possibility. What was said about inside linebacker could also be said about wide receiver in terms of being the core issue that must be solved to take this team to that Super Bowl level, so I think those are the two that early round picks must be focused on, especially because the interior of the line can be solved late in a way that other positions are less likely to be solved.

Spending draft capital on positions of need is a balance of what is most needed and your highest probability of finding the most reasonable solutions with the capital you have. Luckily for Baltimore, the team has five picks in the first three rounds, a prime location to find starters

If we were to break this down into what positions are the best to be spending draft picks on, it’d be helpful to check out the 1994 through 2016 draft analysis of my colleague Cale Cox, a former assistant of Minor League Operations for the Orioles who is entering the football analytics space.

Let’s consider the positions of need we’re discussing: linebacker, edge rusher, wide receiver,  the interior of the offensive line, then the interior of the defensive line. With the 25^th pick in last year’s draft, the Ravens took wide receiver Marquise Brown, then Miles Boykin with a third. Their other top 100 pick was spent on Jaylon Ferguson in the third round, an edge defender. Teams do trade away players at these positions when they become more expensive, but these are two of the five most important positions on the roster, so this investment hold strong bearings for some year two improvement in these players and their units, but another investment needs to happen.

Considering last year’s investment in those positions, plus the currently five total picks in the first three rounds, a first round pick spent on a linebacker would be a great bet, but the entire early round drafting process should primarily come down to who is the best player on the team’s big board at each pick and how does that line up with building the overall team and how they’ll be able to fill these bigger needs.

And according to Cale’s data, spending a first round pick on a linebacker is a strategy that leads to finding a starter. Of the 23 draft data set, linebackers have the highest percentage of first round picks that go on to start over 50% of their career games played.

First round linebackers start 50% of games 86.5% of the time, while first round defensive ends do so 80.0% of the time and wide receivers do so 77.2% of the time. Alternatively though, there’s a bigger drop in likelihood of finding a starting caliber defensive end (43.4%) or receiver (53.6%) in the second round than there is the drop to 66.7% for linebackers. My theory on this probably being that when a team does reach into the first few rounds for a linebacker, it’s for someone they believe is an immediate contributor, while the other positions might be a little bit of a shot at a player with the “traits.”

Most interestingly for me in this is the need at linebacker also being attempted to solve with a fourth or fifth round pick and the solution on the interior of the defensive line being something that’s solved with a late round pick. The interior of the offensive line can be something that an early round pick, then a late round pick is used on.

No position finds starter better than the offensive line later in the draft. In the fourth round, 51.1% of the linemen selected became starters for 50% of career games. As I’ve always said, the first and second round tend to be where you want to search for your tackles, but the mid-rounds can find anything and some of those tackles can become guards.

In the fourth round for example, consistent starters at linebackers can be found 35.0% of the time and in the fifth, 38.6% of defensive tackles drafted become consistent 50% of games played starters.

The benefit of being a fan of a team that’s in a prime position to compete for a championship, loads of draft picks, and few deep issues is that whatever comes in this draft, you can trust it and it’s going to be likely that this team find itself in the Super Bowl this year, while maintaining roster balance into the future to build a nice, wide Super Bowl window while Jackson is at his peak.

The post Ravens Roster Heading into the 2020 NFL Draft appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

With Marcus Peters’ new contract now on the books at Over The Cap, we have the Ravens at a projected $33.8 million in cap space prior a rookie pool that is just under $8 million, so they’ll have about $25.8 million in free cap space to spend.

Baltimore has their regular allotment of picks minus a sixth round pick, which they traded with Jermaine Eluemunor to the Patriots for a fourth in return to add up to a total of four fourth round picks in 2020.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Lamar Jackson’s contract can’t be re-negotiated or extended until after the 2020 season, which means a potential big cap hit from the QB isn’t coming this year. Instead, it might come in 2021, which is a year where the Ravens have just $103 million committed to players currently with much of this team’s core already locked into contracts.

As stated in the Marcus Peters Extension article I wrote a couple weeks ago, there are ways to increase this cap space. Ronnie Stanley is entering the fifth-year of his rookie contract, so an extension could potentially lower that and create a little bit of space.

Chuck Clark performed well when he replaced Tony Jefferson, while releasing Jefferson would clear $7 million in cap space.

Brandon Carr has a $7 million cap hit with just $1 million in dead money. Marshal Yanda was PFF’s fourth highest graded guard and will be entering the final year of his contract in 2020. I previously stated he might be someone the team could extend to create some cap space, despite his age of 36 due to his level of performance, but he thought 2018 might be his last season, so we still don’t know if 2019 will actually be his last season. Either way, the interior of the offensive line should be addressed in the draft, maybe with one of those fourth round picks. If he retires, I’d target something on the interior with a second, especially with Skura due to be an unrestricted free agent after 2020.

Let’s say they release the soon to be 34-year old Carr, who played well, but would be easily replaceable. That puts them up to $31.8 million. More could be made with the moves I discussed, or others, great organizations seem to find new creative ways to find cap space every year.

Baltimore made it clear throughout the season that there were few holes, but one hole was exposed against the Titans in the lack of wide receiver production on the roster. Marquise Brown, Willie Snead, and Miles Boykin just aren’t enough. It was a weird loss though, so there’s a lot I wouldn’t panic about. Even in the loss, the offense put up over 500-yards, yet scored only one touchdown. It was a weird, ugly game that played into the Titans strategy, but that illuminated some issues with the roster.

A Jackson pass, tipped by Mark Andrews, landed in Kevin Byard’s hands, resulting in a 31-yard return that set up a 12-yard touchdown pass to Jonnu Smith to put the Titans up 7-0. And in that moment, something happened that hadn’t happened since the Week 4 loss to the Browns, the Ravens were down.

On the next drive, John Harbaugh and the staff made the right decision to run on fourth-and-one, but the run by Jackson was stuffed. On the very next play, Ryan Tannehill completed a 45-yard touchdown to Kalif Raymond that put the Titans up 14-0.

Jackson threw for 365 yards, but it was on 59 attempts with him completing only 52.5% of them for 6.2 yards per attempt. He’d add another interception late in the third with the ball on the Titans 31, down 28-6. Marquise Brown had 7 catches for 126 yards, Snead had 6 for 56, but the passing game wasn’t explosive enough. It wasn’t enough to overcome that 14-point deficit.

Harbaugh made a lot of the right decisions too, which just didn’t work out. Down 14-6 on the first drive of the second half, against fourth-and-one on the Titans 18, Jackson went up the middle for no gain and the Titans got the ball back. On the Titans ensuing six play drive, Derrick Henry ran four times for 78 yards before his three-yard jump pass touchdown to Corey Davis. The score was 21-6 with 6:54 left in the third and, with the way the game was playing out and Henry’s ability to run out the clock, the game essentially felt out of reach. You know the story, I don’t need to get deeper into it.

I was as stunned as anyone, the most stunning result of the NFL season. I felt like some guy with some Oklahoma twang on his lips on the news after a tornado ran through his town, “it all happened so fast.”

This team doesn’t need much, Jackson will continue to grow, Brown has the kind of speed and talent that might translate into him being the kind of player his cousin was before he mentally jumped the shark. While the rushing offense was the best in NFL history at 206 yards per game, the passing offense needs to make the jump, and an addition at wide receiver would be the best way to do that.

First, who does the team need to retain that’s a free agent. Defensive tackle Michael Pierce seems like someone Baltimore will want to retain. His PFF grade in 2018 was 91, but dropped to 69.1 this year, which might move his market down closer to $8 to $10 million per year.

Matthew Judon keeps getting better each year and is definitely a player the team will want to retain, but he’s not in the upper echelon of edge rushers, which will make him affordable. He finished the season with a value of $11 million to the Ravens according to Over The Cap’s new valuation tool, which is a part of the premium content of our site. My first instinct was that he’d be a $12 million per year type of player, so let’s stick with that.

Together, those two players are worth about $20 million per year.

Center Matt Skura is a restricted free agent, so as an undrafted free agent, an RFA original round tender would be worth a 7^th round pick, meaning that a team would just have to give up a 7^th rounder to sign him. To the Ravens, he would cost $2,144,000, but if they put a second round tender, it’d cost $3,278,000. I think I’d be more comfortable with the second round tender if I was Baltimore as another team will be less likely to give up a second for a center.

Running back Gus Edwards is an exclusive rights free agent, which means he can only sign with the Ravens and only for the league minimum for an NFL player with two accrued seasons. In Edwards case, this means he would make $660,000.

Add in Skura and Edwards, the Ravens are spending about $24 million to these four players they want to retain. Anthony Levine might cost another $2 million, so let’s bring it to $26 million if they keep him.

This leaves just under $6 million to spend in free agency if things play out this way.

Of course, do you want to retain Pierce and Judon? Or do you want to spend that $20 million in APY for a Jadeveon Clowney, Yannick Ngakoue, or Shaq Barrett? Do you want to have an expensive cornerback, safety, and pass rusher with escalating expenses coming at left tackle and quarterback?

Pro Football Focus has edge rusher as the biggest need as the Ravens were their 27^th rated pass rush, so I don’t think Judon has put himself in a position where he’s worth the $12 million expense considering what they need. Pierce has never been a great pass rusher, so again, not a necessity. If I’m Baltimore, I’d allocate those resources to a better pass rusher, rather than keep both of those players.

As I said, there’s about $6 million if you consider them at a $20 million average per year, but their cap hit doesn’t have to be that high. The signing bonus could keep the year one cap hit low, while maintaining a high year one cash flow to the player. Let’s say there’s $8 million left over to spend and Baltimore makes a few more moves that get them up to $11 or $12 million in cap space. Get rid of Tony Jefferson and there’s $7 million more, putting the team at $15 million.

Of 2020’s free agent class, two big targets that wouldn’t cost anywhere near that money would be AJ Green and Emmanuel Sanders. Green will be 32 next season after missing 2019 with a bum ankle and has spent his whole career in Cincinnati. Could the Ravens get him for two or three-years at $10 million a pop? Or the 33-year old Sanders at $8 million per over the same duration? Both are plausible. Point being, they can afford either.

Does Robby Anderson at $10 million per year excite you? Considering Brown already provides that ability to take the top off, maybe not.

Or do you flip that equation and go after Amari Cooper for $10 million per season, then try to keep Judon and hope the first round pick at defensive end becomes a year one contributor?

I have no issue with a team that is the frontrunner for the 2020 Super Bowl doing something that, in many cases, would feel like an overextension of cap space with the big money going to a pass rusher, plus near double figures going to an early-thirties WR, but in this case, both additions put the Ravens even more so in the drivers seat.

With the draft picks, that first round pick would be well served being spent on a edge rusher or receiver. I love Tee Higgins out of Clemson, Justin Jefferson from LSU, or Devonta Smith from Alabama. For edge rushers, I’ve seen names like K’Lavon Chaisson from LSU, Yetur Gross-Matos from Penn State, and Terrell Lewis from Alabama. If they get a contributor at either position in the first round, this is a much better team in 2020.

With the second or third round pick, I’d address whatever position isn’t addressed in the first round.

There isn’t much to be concerned with for Ravens fan. This was a great team and it’s a player or two away from being a Super Bowl winner. These next few months will determine if the Lombardi trophy will return to Baltimore and those 8:1 odds look tasty.

The post Ravens: Looking At The Cap appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

For Peters, the three-year deal provides him with another crack at free agency at 29-years old. Considering the Ravens are his third team in four years after he came into the NFL with character questions after getting dismissed from the team at Washington, it represents a deal that makes him a very rich man and provides him with three more years to work his way into another huge three year deal once the cornerback market adjusts up past $20 million per year like it should. He’s also slated as the top cornerback for what will be a top defense, with Earl Thomas providing help over the top, which will increase his value by his next deal and just plain be a positive experience as a player.

For Baltimore, Peters is Pro Football Focus’ #3 rated cornerback behind a surprise in Quinton Dunbar of the Redskins at #1, plus PFF’s cornerback of the decade Richard Sherman at #2. Peters is more highly ranked than Stephon Gilmore, who is one of the top candidates for Defensive Player of the Year in the NFL this season, and Casey Hayward, Jr., a perennial top cover guy.

Peters would have been the top rated cornerback on the market, but Byron Jones, who was PFF’s 14^th ranked cornerback now takes the seat as the top guy on the market. Slot cornerback Brian Poole of the Jets, plus Troy Hill of the Rams will also be highly pursued, but won’t be paid as much as Peters would have or Jones will be.

The cornerback market is long overdue for a jump as Josh Norman and the Redskins set the market at $15 million all the way back in 2016 with Xavien Howard just barely passing that at $15.05 million with his May 2019 extension. Over the last year, Pro Football Focus, and others, have communicated that cornerback may be the second most important position on the field behind quarterback, which makes them more valuable than both pass rushers and wide receivers.

Meanwhile, Odell Beckham and Tyreek Hill signed contracts worth $18 million per year, then Michael Thomas hit $19.25 million on an extension, while Julio Jones blew past that to $22 million per year. Last offseason, Aaron Donald and Khalil Mack reset the pass rusher market via their holdouts at $22.5 and $23.5 million per year respectively. Their contracts really set a reset on all non-quarterback markets as even linebackers like CJ Mosley benefitted with a $17 million per year deal with a New York Jets organization and their drunken pilot.

With these data points in mind, Byron Jones and his representation team (Jared Fox and Alan Herman of Sportstars) should be seeking out something that at minimum eclipses $19 million per year, which may be part of the rub between a stubborn Jerry Jones and Jones’ representation. Jerry Jones is probably still angry about having to shell out five-years $75 million to a running back because he held out during what looked like a potential Super Bowl campaign that will end with Jason Garrett’s likely firing. Many have reported that Jones and the Cowboys haven’t really even been in communication regarding a new contract, so it seems likely he’ll hit the market and hopefully provide a much needed reset for everyone else that comes after him.

By the time Peters’ contract is over, his $14 million per year should be far below a market that may be near $25 million per year, which I’m sure his team of CJ LaBoy and Douglas Hendrickson (Wasserman Sports) understand. His red flags were always going to be an issue, while the money provided in guarantees and first year money are likely what enticed them enough to sign the contract. And, while I might have held out for more in free agency, but considering he was just traded mid-season, that’s not a risk I want to take if I get a contract offer like the Ravens provide with so much benefit.

This is why the Ravens are such a smart organization, just another example in a long line of them. While Peters gets the benefit of guarantees and first year money, the Ravens, who had $51.5 million in cap space before the deal, get to frontload the contract into the final year of the current CBA, a year before Lamar Jackson is able to start negotiating his extension. The contract’s construct is similar to what the 49ers did with Jimmy Garoppolo’s contract that had a $37 million cap hit in 2018, which was 20.9% of the cap, before dropping down to $19.85 million this year (10.5%) then averaging just under $27 million per over the next three years. Both moves put teams in position where they could get tremendous value against the cap for impact players at the most impact positions in the sport.

This contract benefits both sides, which is, of course, why they came to an agreement prior to free agency. That said, the Ravens benefit from things outside of Peters’ talent, so it will be viewed as a steal for them, but we shouldn’t fault LaBoy and Hendrickson for that. It’s a solid play.

We don’t have the complete numbers on the new deal, so I can’t say with certainty how much cap space the team will have, but with $7.5 million slotted to go to their draft pool, I would imagine they still have about $20-25 million to spend in free agency. Just on the point of cap flexibility, the Ravens have a ton.

Ronnie Stanley’s in the fifth-year of his rookie contract, which could mean an extension is coming that lowers that number if necessary for cap purposes. Tony Jefferson only played five games, but he was one of PFF’s worst safeties in those five games, while Chuck Clark had a 72.8 grade in his stead and the defense has been terrific. Clark earned an 81.9 coverage grade as well. Releasing Jefferson would clear $7 million in cap space.

Brandon Carr has a $7 million cap hit with just $1 million in dead money. Although he will be 36, Marshall Yanda, who was PFF’s fourth highest graded guard, will be in the final year of his contract in 2020 with $4 million in dead money versus an $11 million cap hit, so another extension could be in order to clear some space if necessary.

Plenty can be done to retain who the team wants to retain and maintain the same strong roster into 2020 that they had this year. Free agents include defensive tackle Michael Pierce who had a 91 grade in 2018, but fell to 69.1 this year, which might impact his market down towards $10 million per year.

Matthew Judon is a productive edge defender who continues to get better with each passing year. He’s clearly an impact player and is worth keeping, at the right price of course. According to Over The Cap’s new valuation tool, which is in our premium content part of the site, his value to the Ravens has been $11.6 million. My first instinct was that he would be a $12 million per year player, so his OTC valuation aligns with that.

Other players the team will want to retain are center Matt Skura and running back Gus Edwards. Skura is a restricted free agent, while Edwards is an exclusive rights free agent. Skura suffered a knee injury against the Rams that ended his season. If he were to get an RFA tender on his original round, which was undrafted, so it’d be a seventh round tender, he’d cost about $2,144,000. If the Ravens put a second round tender on him, it’d cost $3,278,000.

Considering he’s the starting center for one of the NFL’s better offensive lines, I’d imagine the Ravens put a second round tender on him, so if a team were to sign him away, they’d have the consequence of losing a second round pick. As an ERFA, Gus Edwards will be signed to something that costs less than $1 million.

Reserve safety and full-time special teamer Anthony Levine is another inexpensive player that the team may want to retain.

Baltimore can pay Peters all this money in year one, still maintain this current roster, and add nine draft picks. One first, second and third round pick, plus three fourths. All picks that could add strong contributors in 2020 to put the Ravens in position to win what could be back-to-back Super Bowls if these next few weeks play out as this 11-game winning streak has.

The post Marcus Peters Signs Extension; Ravens Cap Talk appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Considering the emphasis the organization has on analytics with Jackson’s youth (22-years old) and their ability to further improve the roster around him in the coming years, I think this team could be successful for a long-time.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Over the couple years, it’s become apparent through publicly available analytics, like those on Sharp Football, that understanding how to utilize personnel correctly to create match-up advantages is beneficial for an offense. Coaches have known this for years, but now we see the data regarding how specific personnel lead to specific advantages either passing or running.

For example, teams use 11-personnel (1 running back, 1 tight end, 3 wide receivers), 60% of the time during the 2019 NFL season. It’s become the base personnel in the modern times, which feels much different than the 21-personnel (2 RBs, 1 TE, 2 WRs), I-formation football I grew up watching in the 1990s with Daryl Johnston, Emmitt Smith, and the Dallas Cowboys. The defense’s response is teams using nickel personnel almost 61% of the time in 2018. Teams used Dime personnel 13% of the time, so there are at least five defensive backs on the field about 74% of the time.

From 2008 to 2015, there was an increase in nickel defense from 43.4% to 63.4%, making it the NFL’s base defense. The idea of 4-3 and 3-4 defense has become antiquated in recent years as the new “base” defense has at least five defensive backs, typically four rushers, plus two linebackers who can seem to become more suited for defending the pass, rather than the run, with each passing year.

The evolution towards 11-personnel and nickel defense being the base offense and defensive personnel in the NFL is a story that’s paradigm shifting moment was likely the Patriots 18-1 season in 2007. Wes Welker revolutionized the slot receiver position with 112 catches for 1175 yards and eight touchdowns.

Randy Moss stretched the field vertically with 98 receptions for 1493 yards and 23 touchdowns, breaking Jerry Rice’s record of 22 set in 1987. He helped create the space underneath that Welker took advantage of.

Donte Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney combined for 82 catches for 1146 yards and eight touchdowns themselves as the third and fourth options in the offense.

Teams then copied that Patriots model in the NFL, while college teams were already executing on spread concepts and only more excited by the Patriots success. As a high school senior in 2007 who played slot receiver, I had countless coaches come through telling me how I was going to be their Wes Welker.

This is how ideas spread in football. Someone creative who understands the game’s principles at their core creates something that exploits the current base model in the sport. Others copy that. It becomes a new norm. The creative, Belichick in this case, then moves on to adjust to the new norm that he influenced, others copied, and he’s now going to find a new way to take advantage of.

Similarly, others will attempt to copy what the Ravens are doing now, which may create a similar paradigm shift in the NFL. Be the one creating the paradigm shift and you’re the one who takes advantage of defenses that have been constructed to stop a different norm.

In 2007, no one had the defensive chess piece to deal with Wes Welker getting thrown on the board with his ability to run option routes off of linebackers who had no business trying to cover his quickness. By 2010, Belichick had Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez as a chess piece that responded to his opponent’s response to his 2007 offense.

The league has continued along this 11-personnel path with some offenses being built around Welker type slot receivers, others being built around Larry Fitzgeralds. Slot cornerbacks may be more in the mold of the Welker type of slot receivers, so putting a Fitzgerald or Mohamed Sanu in the slot becomes a mismatch.

Some go for the prototypical #1 outside in the Randy Moss mold, while others find the Marquise Brown style speedster they hope can take the top of the defense and creates a mismatch on the outside that some cornerbacks just simply can’t overcome due to a lack of horsepower.

Conversations surrounding personnel, and the use of analytics in determining the best personnel to take advantage of opposing defenses, are based in the overarching concepts like: What are the chess pieces? What are the chess moves? And, why do you make these moves?

Chess pieces are first invested in either on the free agent market or drafted by the team’s front office, then they must be properly utilized on the field by the coaching staff. There must be complete synergy between the front office and coaching staff in having an understanding of what’s necessary from a talent and skill perspective for the coaches to do what they intend to do on the field. Building a roster that can be successful on the field with the level of strategy required to win a Super Bowl is a multi-year process to set up. Teams must be planning ahead with their opponents in mind, building strategies that take advantage of weaknesses in the on field product they might be building.

In 2018, the Ravens drafted Hayden Hurst in the first round and Mark Andrews in the third. In 2019, they re-signed Nick Boyle, a fifth round pick from 2015. They consciously invested in three tight ends, something few teams do. And you would think Boyle would be the third tight end in this pecking order, but he has the most offensive snaps through 13 weeks at 67%. Andrews has played 46%, and Hurst has played in 40%.

Heading into Week 14’s win against the Bills, while the league averaged 60% of offensive snaps out of 11-personnel, the Ravens averaged just 46%, which leaves only the 49ers (41%), Cardinals (36%), and Vikings (21%) playing less.

Below is a table of the players that make up each personnel grouping. The number that isn’t mentioned is the number of wide receivers. The number must add up to five of course:

Personnel RB TE WR
11 1 1 3
12 1 2 2
21 2 1 2
10 1 0 4
13 1 3 0
22 2 2 0
20 2 0 3

The 49ers are outliers with 24% of snaps from 21-personnel against a league average of 8%.

Being that Kliff Kingsbury came up under Mike Leach’s Air Raid spread principles whose “passing extremism” has helped spur the modern NFL movement towards the 11-personnel that we’re discussing here, Kingsbury plays 10-personnel on 36% of snaps against a league average of 3%. Their 272 snaps out of 10 account for 37% of the NFL’s 736 snaps out of 10 this season.

Kingsbury’s decreased use of 11-personnel is less about analytics and more about what he believes in. They’ve passed 76% of the time for 6.3 yards per attempt, while the league average is 7.1 per attempt, which is less yards per attempt than what NFL teams are averaging out of 13-personnel.

With only about a fifth of snaps going to a personnel the league uses three-fifths of the time, Minnesota has a few outliers using 12 on 34% of snaps, 21 24% of the time, 22 on 11% of snaps, and 13 on 9% of snaps.

Baltimore has played 12-personnel on 18% of snaps, which is actually below the league average of 19%. This is the league’s second most popular personnel as teams understand that passing out of 12 can be advantageous if you have an athletic second tight end who defenses struggle to find a second man viable defender for after that TE1. Passing on 64% of the 145 snaps they’ve run out of 12 has led to the team averaging 8.5 yards per pass attempt, the league average is passing on 47% of snaps out of the formation with 7.8 yards per attempt. Their dynamic rushing offense has averaged 6.2 yards per carry and a 71% successful play rate, which blows away league averages for 4.1 and 53%.

Out of 21-personnel, which they run around the league average of 8%, the Ravens are averaging 6.7 yards per carry and 8.7 yards per attempt with the success leading to the team re-signing reserve defensive tackle and lead fullback Patrick Ricard to a two-year extension just last month.

What’s especially unique to them has been the use of 22 on 15% of snaps and 13 on 7%. League averages for these personnels are 4% and 3%, respectively. Utilizing their three tight ends with 13-personnel has led to incredible success in the passing game with an average of 12.6 yards per attempt, five touchdowns, and a 142.3 passer rating on 26 pass attempts.

A play that stuck out to me as an example of the kind of mismatch creating game the Ravens are playing came against the Bengals in Week 10. On the first drive, out of 32 personnel on the goal line, Mark Andrews ran a simple short out over the goal line to score. He was covered by linebacker, LaRoy Reynolds, who didn’t stand a chance. That’s to be expected at the goal line.

Later in the game, in the more unique scenario of 13 personnel on 2^nd and 9 from the Bengals 17-yard line, Andrews scored another touchdown. Jackson motioned Hurst across the formation with his defender, safety Shawn Williams, following him across the formation, signifying man-to-man defense. This alerted Jackson that Andrews had Bengals outside linebacker Preston Brown covering him, which was a complete and total mismatch, leading to Jackson hitting a wide-open Andrews for a touchdown.

Brown would be released by the Bengals following the game, only to be re-signed by the Raiders. The latest Pro Football Focus ranking has him as the 80^th best linebacker out of 88 qualifying players with a failing grade in coverage of 52.0.

In 2019, their tight ends are producing something that defenses can’t cover, a complete mismatch, and the team is only going to get stronger and more versatile around Jackson over the next couple of years. Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin will be better in year two, Willie Snead will be back, and, with the roster in good standing across the offense and defense, wide receiver can be a position that’s further improved in the draft or free agency with over $50 million in projected cap space.

Analytics people are perceived as anti-running the football because they want it done much less and only in the right situations as they understanding running the football effectively is still a necessity within the sport.

From an Expected Points Added perspective, passing is much more efficient. According to Eric Eager of PFF, with the boost of Jackson running the football, the Ravens are averaging “an unbelievable 0.07 expected points added per run play, which was more than all buy 11 teams were generating throwing the football (the Ravens are also first there).” In the PFF era, there have only been 28 of 448 teams (6.25%) in 14 years to produce a positive EPA on run plays for a full season.

Jackson is leading the league in yards per rush attempt and, according to Eager, is generating over 0.12 EPA per run play on designed runs and 0.85 EPA on non-sack scrambles. Data also suggests that a mobile quarterback has the ability to positively improve running back efficiency. Mark Ingram is having a career year with 5.0 yards per carry and 0.11 EPA per attempt, while Gus Edwards is at 5.1 and 0.11 as well.

What the Ravens have produced is an offense that goes against the reality of the modern NFL that defenses are trying to stop, while still maintaining high levels of efficiency and a league leading EPA per pass attempt. Putting three tight ends on the field is not something anyone has made themselves efficient at defending, it’s not something front offices consider a necessity in a league where 11-personnel is so prevalent. Going big to deal with three tight ends also takes some athleticism off the field for the defense, which Jackson can expose with his legs.

A question that I’m unsure if teams can answer is: how do teams plan on stopping what the Ravens propose as an offense AND be prepared for the modern NFL? Not only is the scheme unique, but there are already multiple ways for them to evolve with each week to create new issues for each opponent to deal with.

This is the point of what the Ravens are doing, it’s all about mismatches, and having a quarterback like Lamar Jackson is the biggest mismatch of all. It’s one they will use to try to exploit defenses for the next decade and the Ravens will continue to make the chess moves that make an offense led by Jackson even more impossible to defend.

Some may say they’ve never seen a mobile quarterback like a Michael Vick have a sustained run of team success, but Lamar Jackson isn’t Vick, he’s a much better passer. And this Ravens organization is a decade ahead of those Vick teams in terms of understanding how to run the most efficient offense with this skill set. Vick also entered a league that tried to fit him into the offense’s of the time, rather than creating a unique system with a unique roster that fit what he could do.

This is year two of what will be a very successful run with all signs pointing to the Super Bowl. Lamar Jackson is a huge reason for that, but the Ravens are in this position because they also had a clear vision of the system they were building with the players they were going to put there.

The post The Ravens Have Used Personnel and Analytics To Create and Sustain Their Incredible Offense appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

I believe Harbaugh on this point. Jackson’s mobility is elite at a level never seen before, but every quarterback in the future of the NFL should have some form of mobility and what the Ravens have produced is an offense that can elevate QB play via strong rushing principles, plus throwing efficiency increasing play action passes at a high rate.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

For a long time now, we’ve watched countless spread style and/or mobile quarterbacks come into the NFL and be placed into offenses that don’t suit their skill sets. Offenses that ask them to do things that they’ve never done before. But over the past few years, we’re seeing an NFL that is finally implementing the schemes and strategies that top quarterbacks have been running since they were in high school.

Much of that can be attributed to the Andy Reid coaching tree, of which Mr. Harbaugh is a part of, albeit as a special teams coach, rather than an offensive coordinator.

Fellow “tree branch” Doug Pederson is quoted in his book as saying he took plays and principles from Carson Wentz’s offense to make him more comfortable, while also taking the run pass options from Chip Kelly’s college based scheme to give Nick Foles plays he’d already had success running. Sure, the Chip Kelly experiment in Philadelphia was a failure, but I think the league has further integrated a lot of what he was doing in the time since as teams learned from things he did that worked.

Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman had been running his offense with quarterback run based principles back to 2011 in San Francisco. First with Alex Smith, then with Colin Kaepernick. After he was sacked following the 2014 season with head coach Jim Harbaugh, he moved onto Buffalo where he helped the team go 8-8 with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback and Rex Ryan as the head coach, no small feat. He was unceremoniously fired just two games into the 2016 season as if he was the problem with the Bills.

In three games against the Patriots with Colin Kaepernick and Tyrod Taylor under center, Roman coached teams have gone 1-2.

Kaepernick beat the Patriots 41-34 in 2012. He went 14-25 (56%) for 221 yards with four touchdowns to one interception, plus seven rushes for 28 yards and an incredible four fumbles.

In two games in 2015, the Taylor led Bills lost 40-32 and 20-13. In the first game he went 23-30 (76.7%) for 242 yards with three touchdowns to three interceptions. He ran for 43 yards and a touchdown on five carries. His second game was not as successful with him completing 20 passes on 36 attempts (55.6%) for 233 yards with four carries for just one yard.

With Lamar Jackson, Roman has something much, much better than both of those quarterbacks. Offensive coordinators are more important to an NFL franchise than we as a collective give them credit for, they’re also more important than the market gives them credit for. Josh McDaniels signed a five-year contract, which is unheard of for an offensive coordinator, and pays him like a first time head coach with his salary eclipsing $4 million at one point during the deal.

By comparison, Jon Gruden signed a 10-year, $100 million contract with the Raiders after almost a decade out of the NFL.

Roman has been running his offense in the NFL since 2011, but he finally has the right man to lead it with the skill set as a runner and passer to make it work to it’s most elite capabilities.

I’ve gone over a few times here how this Ravens team has been built. Offensively, you’ve got a team based in the concept of running the football with the best pass blocking in the NFL according to PFF, further increasing Jackson’s ability to be efficient.

Over the last few months, I’ve really been considering how I’d allocate draft resources if I was a GM. I know I’m being extreme when I say this, but why not just draft quarterbacks and offensive linemen with first round picks until you secure what you need there? Quarterback is the most important position in the game and the offensive line is what really makes the entire offense go in terms of potential efficiency.

Of course, you don’t have to do that as interior offensive linemen can be found in the late rounds as the Ravens offense proves. The 6^th overall pick in the 2016 draft, Ronnie Stanley, mans the left tackle position. 2018 third round pick Orlando Brown plays right tackle after falling the draft due to something that has nothing to do with playing the offensive line: his 40-time. Guard Marshall Yanda was drafted in the third round of the 2007 draft, while other guard Matt Skura was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2016. Bradley Bozeman is in his second year, drafted out of Alabama in the sixth round of 2018.

When you consider the pressure that the Patriots are putting on every quarterback they face, the Ravens offensive line is a valuable chess piece that might allow this team to get past them come playoff time.

According to Josh Hermsmeyer, heading into the Browns game the Patriots ranked seventh in the NFL in blitzes with 82 and first in defensive expected points added on those plays at 30.2. The high EPA in large part is due to their league-leading five interceptions off the blitz. It’s not just that though, they have a positive EPA on 70.7% of blitzes, which is 17% over the league average.

It’s this line that could protect Jackson and potentially even give him the time to execute on play action, which he’s used on 31.0% of drop backs, the sixth highest total in the NFL for regular starting quarterbacks. The pressure generated on blitzes does become a concern. Play action passes need to get out of the pocket quickly from shotgun, well times screen passes in situations where the Patriots are highly likely to be blitzing is important as well.

A weakness in the Patriots defense is a run defense that’s ranked 20^th in the NFL according to PFF, tied with the Chargers with a grade of 66.8. While the Patriots rank fourth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed at just 85 per game, they’re 21^st in yards per carry at 4.6. They have the least rushing attempts against them in the NFL at just 18.5 per game, a sign of their playing from ahead and teams passing the ball more because of situation, rather than effectiveness. Playing from ahead, this defense also forces teams into passing the football, which is something this Patriots team does at a historic level.

The team now has one more sack (31) and one more interception (19) than the team had last year, during a Super Bowl winning season. Their 25 takeaways are just three less than the 16 game pace.

The match-up this weekend is the newest attempt to dethrone Belichick. It’s Harbaugh, Roman, and Jackson bring what they think is the future of offense against Belichick’s very team building philosophies that have been the cornerstone of his dynasty.

Looking at the Patriots team texture section at Over The Cap, they again have the most players on low-cost veteran cap hits and the highest percent of their spending going to these players in the NFL. Low-cost veteran cap hits are classified as at $4.45 million or below and the Patriots have 21 of them with 23.3% of the cap going to these players. Those 21 players consume an average of 1.1% of the cap, which is about $2.1 million per player.

Cornerback Jason McCourty has a cap hit of $4.25 million this year as PFF’s 7^th rated cornerback through eight weeks, Jonathan Jones consumes $2.7 million and is ranked as the second best cornerback in the league. That’s the cornerback situation before we even consider Stephon Gilmore who has drawn praise from around the NFL for his play this year who ranks 20^th per PFF.

With the safeties, they lead the best pass coverage unit in the NFL with a 93.2 PFF grade.

The pass rush is sixth in the NFL despite trading Chandler Jones away and letting Trey Flowers walk in free agency. Belichick has frequently shown he believes what the analytics community has recently adopted after research through the way he spends his money: pass coverage is more important than pass rush.

Gilmore was signed to a deal worth $13 million per year in a stagnant cornerback market that hasn’t really been pushed since Josh Norman’s $15 million per year deal with the Redskins in 2016. Devin McCourty was signed to a five-year deal worth $9.5 million per season in 2015 at a time when the safety market was severely undervalued.

Jamie Collins accounts for $3 million of this year’s cap, he’s PFF’s fourth highest graded linebacker. Defensive end John Simon is PFF’s 26^th rated edge rusher on a two-year deal worth $4.15 million. Special teamers like Matt Slater and Brandon Bolden have cap hits of $2.9 and $1.7 million this year.

Belichick’s belief in this era of limited practice time, but even before then, that a team needs experience and he’s always found that experience via keeping cap costs at the top of the cap low outside of Tom Brady and a couple other key players, all on reasonable contracts, then building out the roster with the experienced and talented players he finds on the proverbial scrap heap.

Parcells is quoting as saying that Belichick has an encyclopedia in his head of past players and how a current player compares, which allows him to slot players into roles that they excel in.

He utilizes free agency heavily to do this by seeking those cheap players. It might be easier for him in terms of predicting his return on investment because so many of these low-cost players have low-risk, but have already proven worthy of a role in some fashion in the NFL. And, with Belichick’s crazy film habits, he has seen with his own eyes them doing what he thinks they can do for him. He’s been doing it since his first championship rosters. That 2001 team was filled with low-cost veterans like Roman Phifer, Tedy Bruschi, Troy Brown, Antowain Smith, Otis Smith, and more producing results that outpaced their cost.

It also helps when your own players come back after seeing money elsewhere like a Collins or Bolden, he’s phenomenal at targeting players undervalued because of age, injuries they can recover from, being used in the wrong system, or other reasons.

The other thing about this philosophy is that he can kick the tires on a Demaryius Thomas to see if he’s worth it with very little risk comparatively. He’ll cost $1.8 million in dead money against the cap and the team has an unusually high $21.5 million in dead money this year with $5.75 million on Antonio Brown and $3.6 million on Michael Bennett, but these risks provided higher potential for value. It’s calculated by an understanding of economics that stems back to Belichick’s college major at Wesleyan University.

The result of this philosophy in 2018 is a defense filled with veterans. There are zero defensive starters under the age of 26. The defense now has 21 players with over 100 snaps (about 20% of snaps), which, as Bill Barnwell points out, is a number most teams would only hit by midseason if they were riddled with injuries. But this is by choice. Only Devin McCourty and Gilmore are playing more than 80% of snaps.

Of the 23 players who have played defense this year in 5411 potential snaps across the defense, 1261 snaps have gone to nine players on their rookie contracts, which is 23.3%. The top seven players in snap percentage are all veterans, which are essentially the players of their defensive backfield, their pass coverage: the McCourty brothers, Gilmore, Collins, linebacker Kyle Van Noy, Jones, and Duron Harmon.

Like I discuss in Caponomics: Building Super Bowl Champions, they cycle through their defensive linemen to keep them fresh and explosive throughout the game. This year, the team is doing it more than ever. Depending on how you classify certain players, the defensive line has seven or eight players playing between 22 and 49 percent of snaps.

Experience and the potential versatility created via the experience, plus talent and athleticism, of their defensive players is the base principle of this defense. There’s continuity as well, Dave Archibald pointed out to me that outside of Collins, the top 15 players in defensive snaps have returned. Ten of these 15 players have spent three or more years with the team.

The result of this has been a season similar to the strategy Belichick implemented to confused the Rams young quarterback, Jared Goff in the Super Bowl.

To stop a Rams offense that inspired teams across the NFL to hire their own attempts at Sean McVay clones, Belichick and defensive coordinator Brain Flores put six men on the defensive line with one linebacker in the middle, almost a bit of a goal line defensive front to stop a running game that was strategically crafted to take advantage of defensive boxes with six or less men. A Patriots defense that played more man defense than anyone else in the NFL during the season ran zone on 40% of plays in the game, which made the relatively inexperienced Goff more hesitant with his reads, especially because nothing about the defense was like what he had seen on film. The third year quarterback was overwhelmed and his indecisiveness gave the six-man defensive line more time to generate pressure.

That strategy of ultimate confusion has carried over into this season and it plays well against the most valuable asset in the NFL today, the biggest threat to the Patriots throne: high value, highly productive rookie contract quarterbacks. Without the experience that a veteran has, a myriad of different defensive looks can be incredibly confusing on a play-to-play basis and all the Patriots defense needs is a play or two to swing a game. They don’t make mistakes, but they’ll confuse you into making one, really regardless of experience level.

Barnwell writes that Belichick’s defense is “continuing to blend and blur the line between man and zone coverage to trick quarterbacks who are depending on differentiating between one or the other pre-snap to make post-snap decisions.” When he does go man, he’s able to rely on elite defenders to allow him to create a numbers advantage in the pass rush.

Further, Barnwell discovered that “the Patriots have allowed a passer rating of just 23.5 in zero-high coverage in a league in which no other team is below a rating of 50.0 and the league average is 104.4. No team has blitzed more frequently without safety help, which has led to eight sacks and 17 hurries out of the look, second behind the Vikings.”

Can the Ravens offense make enough plays to beat this historic Patriots defense? Can they minimize mistakes? Can they make the right play calls in the right situations often enough to catch this defense at a disadvantage?

Something we as a collective football consciousness, including myself, continuously undervalue in this sport is the value of coaching. It’s why my belief that the Browns had generated an analytics based, team building solution would solve their problem has seemed to fail. They don’t have the right coach and the coach is the key.

On Sunday night we will see if John Harbaugh with his trusted lieutenant Greg Roman and his favorite chess piece Lamar Jackson are prepared to engage in an intellectual battle with the greatest intellectual the sport of football has ever seen.

Zack Moore is a certified NFL agent, a writer for OverTheCap.com, and is the author of “Caponomics: Building Super Bowl Champions,” a book that breaks down how Super Bowl champions are built in the NFL’s salary cap era. His work has created a league-wide understanding of how NFL front offices can best allocate resources to create successful teams.

 You can follow him on Twitter at @ZackMooreNFL. You can subscribe to The Zack Moore Show podcast here.

The post A New School Smash Mouth Style of Offense Versus Belichick’s Team Building Model appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

The team was fifth in rushing, 22^nd in passing, and first in points allowed. Led by Tony Banks and Trent Dilfer at quarterback, the team was 14^th in the NFL over the course of the 2000 season scoring 20.8 points per game. The offense had just 176 passing yards per game, but the defense limited opponents to just 187 per game, so it evened out.

This year’s team has Lamar Jackson leading the NFL at 6.7 yards per carry for 460 rushing yards, while Mark Ingram has 424, and Gus Edwards has 199 of his own. Jackson’s averaging 76.7 rush yards per game, Ingram’s at 70.7, and Edwards adds 33.2 of his own per game. The leading receiver is Mark Andrews with 410 on 34 catches, a huge beneficiary of the play action based system that Greg Roman runs.

During the 2000 season, Sharpe had 105 of 488 targets. When you add Ben Coates’ 18, that’s 123, so 25% of targets. This year, Andrews, Hayden Hurst, and Nick Boyle have combined for 81 of 193 targets, a whopping 42%. The emphasis on the tight ends has increased, as has the reliance on play action, Jackson is 6^th in the NFL in play action percentage as 29.3% of his drop backs have been play action passes. As I’ve explained before, a direct benefit of play action passes are those tight ends due to the reactions from linebackers.

Like the 2000 team with Qadry Ismail, Marquise Brown is a speedster who stretches the field, serves as the #2 guy in targets, and provides space in the defense for the tight ends to make plays underneath.

The result of all of this with Jackson’s continued development as a passer is the #2 offense in points and the #1 offense in yards. Baltimore is first in rushing yards with 205 per game. At the Ravens current pace, they’d rush for 3280 yards, which would be an NFL record, beating the 1978 New England Patriots by 115. Quarterback Steve Rogan ran for 6.7 yards per carry on the way to 539 yards, while Sam Cunningham, Andy Johnson, and Horace Ivory all ran for over 675 themselves.

Jackson averaged 159.1 passing yards per game over the last seven games of 2018 and has now thrown for 251.2 per game in the first six. It’s turned this offense into something much more than most were projecting.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Baltimore started 2019 as the 16^th most likely team to win Super Bowl 54 with +3200 odds. After six weeks, they’re ninth at +2200. A reason for that jump has been Jackson’s play.

A bit surprisingly, the defense has been a disappointment as the NFL’s 2^nd ranked defense in points and first in yards allowed last year is now 18^th and 13^th. The 2018 group gave up 17.9 points per game, this year’s team is giving up 23.3 per game.

This could be looked at two ways. They gave up 33 to the Chiefs and 40 to a Browns offense that should be more solid than they’ve displayed otherwise, so there’s a points per game bump that comes from those two match-ups. But the teams they’ve kept in check are all bad teams in 2019: Miami, Arizona, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati.

The defense just got some help that might have been a reasoning behind that bump from Vegas as the team acquired Pro Football Focus’ 13^th ranked cornerback and two-time All Pro Marcus Peters for linebacker Kenny Young, who had just been benched by the team, and a 5^th round pick in 2020.

If Baltimore wants to re-sign him, which I would imagine they do considering his performance thus far in the NFL, they have $69 million in projected cap space according to Over The Cap, so it’s a trade that could result in a long-term acquisition.

Baltimore is his third team in four years despite his abilities on the field for a good reason, he had character question marks in the draft process after being dismissed from the team at the University of Washington and has still had issues in the NFL. It might be why he only netted a 5^th round pick and Young despite being a top cornerback. Joshua Dobbs was traded to Jacksonville for a 5th

It is possible the Ravens don’t elect to retain him. Baltimore would then likely receive the third or fourth round compensatory pick that Los Angeles would have received if they kept Peters and he left in free agency.

The result of the trade on the field is that the defense is now less reliant on snaps from Anthony Averett or Maurice Canady and it seems that Brandon Carr is now the full-time slot cornerback with Peters taking a position outside opposite of Marlon Humphrey. Tavon Young will return from his neck injury next season, Tony Jefferson will return from his ACL tear, and the defensive backfield could be a major strength in 2020. Jimmy Smith is still on the shelf with a knee sprain. The defensive backfield will be deep when he returns.

As long as Peters doesn’t have any issues, I could see the team signing him to an extension or hitting him with a franchise tag as a means of delaying the decision.

With so many starters at expensive positions on rookie contracts, plus $69 million in cap space, the team is in position to make whatever decision they want, and it’s in their best interest to have a player like Peters around as re-signing him allows them to still potentially maintain the compensatory pick formula in their favor, while not needing to seek cornerback help elsewhere.

Currently, the Ravens have seven draft picks in the first five rounds in the 2020 draft. As of May 2019, Nick Korte from Over The Cap has the team projected to see a third round pick for Za’Darius Smith due to the $16.5 million average per year (APY) deal he signed with the Packers. John Brown’s APY of $9 million with the Bills was slated to earn the Ravens a fourth round pick, but Korte writes that the Titans releasing of Brent Urban, which comes before Week 10, removes this compensatory pick. But, the Ravens could get the pick back if they similarly cut Justin Bethel before Week 10. However, as Korte points out, “he is the leading contributor on special teams at more than 80% of the snaps.

While it looked like the Ravens could have nine picks in the first five rounds to make up their 2020 draft class, they could now have eight. They have the allotted seven picks in 2021 as of today, so the team is in good standing to maintain the roster. And the roster is already strong, a few more pieces in the draft and free agency and they catapult to the top of the contenders list.

Baltimore’s extreme value from rookie contract players shows in Over The Cap’s new Valuation metric. The Cardinals lead the NFL with $81.1 million in value over APY, but Baltimore is right behind them getting $217.2 million in overall value with a team APY of $136.5 million, which results in $80.7 million of value over APY. Jackson, left tackle Ronnie Stanley, center Matt Skura, Andrews, and outside linebacker Matt Judon are the three biggest contributors to team value over APY. The right low-cost veteran free agent signings like Pernell McPhee, Willie Snead, and Mark Ingram are creating value for the franchise as well.

They’re currently in a position to extend talent within the organization, which maintains a positive compensatory pick formula. Some players will leave in free agency in the coming years, which will net picks, and the team is unlikely to reach for an expensive player on free agency to mess up the formula because the roster is already talented.

With the addition of Peters, this roster is in a prime position to be built from within with some supplementary additions through free agency, rather than being in a position where the missing piece is a forced overpay on the free agent market.

Doing that also ruins the compensatory formula, so Baltimore is in prime position to make a jump now or in 2020 dependent on if the team can figure out a way to solve their one glaring issue: a pass rush that PFF ranks as the 28^th best in the game. That’s a drop from #11 the year prior as Smith and Terrell Suggs left in free agency. Preferably for Ravens fans, the hope is that the pass rush will be addressed this season, in time to see if this team can make a run at a Super Bowl this year rather than next year.

If the team does want to make a move this year, it’s going to have to contend with a tight cap. According to Over The Cap, after the Peters trade, the Ravens now have $1,284,916 in cap space.

When it comes to clearing cap space, restructures or extensions are a means for creating more. There aren’t many great candidates for a restructure that would clear much cap space, but if the team is willing to restructure a few players, they may create enough space to sign almost anyone on their rookie contract.

Extending Willie Snead or converting his salary into a signing bonus with void years in 2020 and 2021 could free about a million. The team could sign him to an extension in the $4-5 million range that helps clear space too.

Converting James Hurst’s salary into a signing bonus could create just about $2.5 million. Brandon Carr could have $3 million converted into a signing bonus that clears $1.5 million in cap.

Sam Koch has two years left on his contract, so just over $2 million of his salary could be converted to a signing bonus, which would clear another million in cap space as the signing bonus would be prorated over the final two years of the deal.

When you’re considering the players on bad teams that might be available, it’s probably going to be important that they find the lower cost players, but Vic Beasley is on the block and his $12.81 million salary becomes about $7.5 million if he’s traded after this weekend with 10 games left in the season.

If restructuring those three players clears $6 million in space, the Ravens are at $7.2 million and they can surely find another $300,000 to trade for Beasley.

Chandler Jones of the Cardinals is a trade candidate who can fit more easily under the cap with a prorated 10 week salary of $5,588,235. Von Miller’s $17 million salary becomes $10 million over ten weeks, so he’d probably be too hard to fit under the cap unless the team wants to extend Jimmy Smith to decrease his $9.5 million salary this year and kick cap responsibilities down the road on a 31-year old at a position that traditionally ages poorly.

Other trade candidates include Yannick Ngakoue whose 10 week salary would be just under $1.2 million, so if the Jaguars seem willing to deal him, which they might be considering the lack of progress on an extension this offseason that resulted in a holdout.

Shaq Barrett would be a candidate for a bad Bucs team with his $4 million salary for the season. He’s playing in a way that might earn him a mega deal, which would mean a third round compensatory pick in 2021 for the Bucs if he walks in free agency. Jason Pierre-Paul might be someone the team is willing to trade away as well.

Before the season, Jadeveon Clowney was traded to the Seahawks in return for a 2020 third round pick, plus two reserve linebackers and special teamers.

For a Von Miller or Chandler Jones, established veterans with multiple years left on their contracts, those teams might be looking for a combination of a second and a third or fourth, or even a first.

For a player in the last year of a contract, like Ngakoue or Barrett, the teams are probably seeking a third round pick as that would be the return they’d likely receive in the form of a compensatory pick in 2021. For Beasley, who hasn’t performed at a high level since his league leading 15.5-sack season in 2016, the price might be a fourth or fifth. The team has just decided he isn’t a part of future plans and knows he isn’t commanding big money on free agency at this point.

The 2020 free agent class for edge defenders has the potential to be extremely deep, if extensions and franchise tags don’t get in the way of that, but if Baltimore can secure an impact player now, he helps them in 2019, and, if re-signed, the loss of the picks traded is lessened by the compensatory pick formula still being maintained.

All told, considering the roster in place with the list of big needs being essentially just pass rusher, the team is in a position to move draft picks without much concern for the long-term impact as securing an impact player now, within this Super Bowl window, is more critical than what a 2020 pick will net. Teams need to understand the stage of development their roster is in, if they’re in a rebuild, it’s time to stockpile picks, but if the team is in the heart of a Super Bowl window, it’s the time to trade away picks to address core needs.

A trade for an impact edge rusher makes this team a Super Bowl contender now, but otherwise, 2020 and 2021 have the Ravens as top contenders, with a couple moves to further solidify this defense on the edge and at linebacker. Jackson has turned this offense into something much better than those 2000 Ravens, or any Ravens team that I can recall, but the defense needs to catch up.

The post Ravens Thoughts After The Marcus Peters Acquisition appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Mays discovered the play that increased an offense’s Expected Points Added (EPA) the most is the play-action pass. The average running play has a -0.04 EPA, passing has an EPA of 0.04, but play-action passes have an EPA of 0.17, making it the most efficient offensive play in the sport.

He came to the conclusion following the Seahawks Super Bowl win behind quarterback Russell Wilson utilizing play action on a higher percentage of drop-backs than any other team in the NFL. It was also when the 49ers were having great success with Colin Kaepernick by utilizing the play action pass with current Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman calling the shots.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

With the help of designed quarterback runs, play action was the main mechanism that made Kaepernick a successful quarterback under his leadership in conjunction with the team’s overall strategy that included a top five defense and rushing attack.

In 2012, the 49ers were sixth in play action percentage, using it on 27% of drop backs. San Francisco’s 59.8% DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) per Football Outsiders on all play action. Alex Smith and Kaepernick split the season and were behind only Robert Griffin III in his Rookie of the Year season under Mike Shanahan, illustrating what a sound decision the acquisition and retention of RG3 is for the Ravens. In 2013, the 49ers were fifth by using play action 28% of the time and their 56.9% DVOA ranked behind just Denver during a historic offensive season, Seattle during a Super Bowl season, and Phillip Rivers’ Chargers.

The 49ers abandoned the play action strategy a bit in 2014 with the team using play action on 20% of drop backs, which ranked 19^th and the DVOA dropped all the way to -1.4%, which was 27^th. After the season, Jim Harbaugh and the staff were fired.

In 2015, Roman’s first year in Buffalo with Tyrod Taylor, he helped generate an 8-8 season with a pretty talentless roster via a running game that ranked first in the NFL. They may have been a playoff team though if he increased his play action percentage up from 17% towards the 27% he used in 2012 with Kaepernick as the Bills were #1 in the NFL in DVOA on the play. They averaged 9.9 yards per play on all play action plays and 10.2 on play action passes. He was then fired two games into the 2016 season in favor of Anthony Lynn.

This is essentially how you make a Lamar Jackson type of quarterback, a better runner than thrower, successful. It’s how good coaching can give him the space to be successful as he develops into a solid passer, which is what he ultimately may become.

Jackson’s high school offense was basically a “go out and be an athlete” type of offense without any real traditional system, then he steadily improved as a passer each year at Louisville and again in his first year in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. He both continued to learn how to read defenses and improved his technique as a passer.

In 2018, Jackson used play action on an astounding 42.9% of, albeit a limited sample size, 203 drop backs. Right behind him were Jared Goff (35.8%), Carson Wentz (32.1%), and Tom Brady (31.4%), three quarterbacks paired with three of the best offensive coordinators in the league. On play action passes versus non-play action passes, Jackson’s completion percentage was 2.4% higher (59.7% vs. 57.3%), his yards per attempt 2.9 yards higher (8.8 vs. 5.9), and his NFL rating was 97.4 versus 76.1, which is the difference between Aaron Rodgers and Cody Kessler.

Mays wrote that the main targets of the play-action fake are linebackers as their natural reaction of stepping forward to defend the run, the main focus of their job, tends to open up the area behind them for tight ends and slot receivers to take advantage of. In the late-1940s, Greasy Neale created the 5-2 Eagle, which had the traditional two cornerbacks and two safeties behind it. It was an upgrade over previous defenses that were more designed to stop the run with six man fronts, but it’s issue was a hole in the middle of the defense that the opponent could take advantage of passing the football. Tom Landry then came along to create the 4-3 defense to fix that issue and the 1956 Giants earned a championship with it.

Part of what Bill Walsh must have realized when he leaned so heavily into the strategy as a principle of his West Coast philosophy was that play action created that hole via the natural reaction of these linebackers. So while Landry had solved the issue with Neale’s innovative defense, Walsh made the chess move in response to Landry’s innovation.

Mark Andrews will be the main beneficiary of this hole in the middle of the defense as he’s already shown signs of becoming an elite tight end, but Hayden Hurst and Willie Snead will be helpful contributors via this strategy. Hurst wasn’t elite, but tight ends not named Mark Andrews take time to develop.

Andrews’ had the highest passer rating when targeted for tight ends last season, his 75.7 PFF rating was fourth best among rookie tight ends over the last five seasons and he had the 10^th highest grade among tight ends in the NFL last year. His 552 yards came on just 274 snaps in route, which came to 2.01 yards per route run, the fifth best average amount all tight ends and third among rookie tight ends since the 2012 ahead of Hunter Henry and Zach Ertz. His 2.91 yards per route run lining up at the end of the line ranked second behind only George Kittle.

Snead wasn’t elite as a slot receiver at 1.52 yards per route run, which was 34^th in the NFL, but all three of these players, with rookies Marquise Brown, who is made headlines with his speed in his first day on the field, and Miles Boykin, who has been making headlines with his play all camp, will make up a passing attack that should be an upgrade over the 2018 season.

As someone who plays in a fantasy football dynasty league, I’ve found myself excited about almost every new piece on this roster, including Justice Hill. The weapons Jackson will have growing alongside him are serious.

Drafting two tight ends in 2018 with Jackson had the benefit of 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends, two wide receivers) being a more efficient passing personnel than 11 (one, one, and three).

In 2018, Sports Info Solutions found that “teams averaged 8.08 yards per attempt, 0.15 Expected Points Added per attempt, and had a positive play rate (the percentage of plays with positive EPA) of 54%. From 11, those averages were 7.16 yards per attempt, 0.03 EPA per attempt, and a positive play rate of 49.5%.” Dan Pizzuta writes, “there is a sample discrepancy there because there were significantly more pass attempts from 11, but that’s kind of the point. Teams really should throw more from 12.”

The reason for increased passing efficiency out of 12 is that regardless of the strengths of the tight ends, defenses naturally go to their traditional base 4-3 or 3-4 defense, rather than the nickel defense that has five defensive backs on the field, which recently became the NFL’s current base defense as it is the reaction to 11-personnel, the NFL’s base personnel. Defenses can decide to go small with nickel in response to 12 to try to combat this passing efficiency, but the offense can go with a rushing play and target the fifth defense back who replaced the linebacker.

The offense is now stacked at running back with Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards, and Hill, so the team is in a position where they can execute on a run-based offensive strategy that uses play action to amplify their young quarterback’s efficiency with a defense that will likely be elite in 2019 after finishing second in points allowed last season.

With three more full seasons with Jackson on his rookie deal, the team can lean into this strategy in the short term, then building the offense around the running game and the tight ends will allow the Ravens to maintain the low costs to continue to develop this defensive focus into his second contract. Considering Jackson may never be a truly elite passer, it’s possible the Ravens could retain him for a few million less than the top of the quarterback market when the time comes. Rather being at $40 million a year with a Patrick Mahomes in a few years, Jackson might be locked in closer to $30 million, especially if decision makers around the league continue to realize that the paradigm regarding quarterback pay has to shift on a player like Jackson if their team is going to be competitive. Regardless of the value he’ll bring as a runner, passing the ball is just much more valuable, so his market will be tempered unless he significantly improves as a passer.

His contracts could be similar to what Alex Smith has signed as a veteran. He made $12.6 million per year with the Chiefs from 2012 through 2017 as the market got into the twenties, then signed a deal worth $23.5 million per year as the market ballooned past $30 million. Since 2012, Alex Smith has a record of 62-32-1, while Aaron Rodgers has a record of 59-36-1. Paying Jackson in a similar way is possible and could lead to great success for the organization.

Currently, the Ravens are second to last in offensive spending per Over The Cap at $65.7 million, while ninth in defensive spending at $96.5 million. This is the kind of spending pattern that should follow the Ravens throughout the Jackson era with an increase of course coming as Jackson and the tight ends move into their second contracts. Offensively, the main place of investment must continue to be the offensive line to make this offense go.

Baltimore is in a sound position to take advantage of Jackson’s rookie contract, then move into his second contract with the strategy and pieces to continue to be successful. Success will be based around Greg Roman understanding how play action, 12-personnel, and how Jackson’s legs can be best utilized to create a competitive advantage, while from a salary cap, roster construction, and organizational culture standpoint, the team, and the young quarterback, will be able to lean on a great defense.

The post The Strategy for Success in the Lamar Jackson Era appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

After the draft, the Ravens have $15.1 million in cap space with just under $6.7 million going to the eight players drafted. Jason Fitzgerald from Over The Cap confirmed that the team should have about $2.3 million in cap space after accounting for the cost of draft players under the Top 51 rules that govern the salary cap prior to Week 1 of the NFL season. This means the Ravens have about $12.8 million in potential cap space to improve the few weaknesses on the roster. There’s a lot to like about the offseason, this team got better in the short-term and the long-term.

In the backfield, Mark Ingram is a great addition to Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon, two backs who were productive when Jackson was leading their read-option offense. Giving a 30-year old running back a three-year contract worth $15.5 million bears risk, but he’s performed at a high level the last three seasons and it’s a low-cost for an offense that’s going to lean on it’s run game. His suspension for PEDs last season does worry me as an aging player. They are called performance-enhancing drugs because they, you know, enhance performance.

Evan Silva says Justice Hill could be Alvin Kamara lite in this offense. While analytics explain that passing is more effective and efficient in today’s NFL, the Ravens have constructed an offense that can wear defenses out. With four viable running backs and their variety of styles, plus Jackson, this should be the best rushing offense in the NFL.

Additions in the draft at receiver added a ton of speed with Hill. This will create the big play threat that an offense so focused in rushing the football needs. Pete Carroll has a statistic he cites that if an offense has an explosive play of 16+ yards or an explosive run play of 12+ yards, they will score over 75% of the time.

After years of never drafting receivers early in the draft to Joe Flacco led offenses, Eric DeCosta secured Jackson two in the first three rounds. The most frequent comparison for first round pick Marquise Brown is DeSean Jackson, while third round pick Miles Boykin draws comparisons to Kenny Golladay. Willie Snead is still around and hopefully forced into a smaller role in 2018, while Seth Roberts is a nice veteran addition for what will be a limited role.

Considering who Lamar Jackson currently is as a passer, the team strategy is going to focus on moving the chains with the strong running game, then getting the big plays from these receivers. Jackson isn’t the kind of accurate thrower who is going to routinely and methodically pass the offense down the field in the modern quick passing style we see around the league, this offense is going to have to get some big plays.

If the Ravens have indeed secured two starting caliber receivers, they’ve filled out a solid offense. Mark Andrews is one of the best young tight ends in the NFL with 552 yards and three touchdowns on 34 catches in 2018 and Hayden Hurst will be more than 13 catches for 163 yards and a touchdown.

John Harbaugh has said that they’ve gone into this offseason with the intention of building the offense from the ground up, which is a really exciting prospect with offensive coordinator Greg Roman’s success with read-option quarterbacks Colin Kaepernick and Tyrod Taylor, plus assistant head coach, receivers coach, and passing coordinator David Culley. Culley has spent 18-years as a member of Andy Reid’s staff, so the meshing of the two systems with the variety of talent at the skill positions should help Jackson and the offense take a step forward. Those Eagles teams made NFC Championships with far less talent at receiver. Great offensive systems and play-callers get more out of players, they’re able to do more with less.

Harbaugh has also suggested that sixth round pick Trace McSorley will serve a sort of Taysom Hill role, which could make the offense more dynamic and provide some special plays that help eek out some of the low-scoring, tight games they’re built to win.

The defense that Wink Martindale re-schemed in 2018 to become one the top defense in the NFL lost Eric Weddle and gained Earl Thomas, who still looked like the best free safety in the NFL last season before getting injured. The team retained cornerback Jimmy Smith, which was the right move as the $9.5 million they would have saved releasing him wouldn’t have been worth the value of the depth of this defensive backfield.

Neil Hornsby from Pro Football Focus has said that the website’s new wins above replacement statistic weighs pass coverage as more important than pass rush “because offenses can compensate for the latter,” via the quarterback getting rid of the ball very quickly.

On this premise, a defensive backfield of Thomas, Tony Jefferson, Marlon Humphries, Tavon Young, and Smith should be one of the best in the league and vitally important in the Ravens quest to win through a strategy of ball control. If the Ravens can shut down opposing passing offenses, they morph the game into a strategic battle of who does more in a grind it out, low-scoring affair. It becomes a game of the Ravens defense making less mistakes than their opponents do.

Third round pick Jaylon Ferguson, a defensive end from Louisiana Tech, actually broke departed legend Terrell Suggs’ all-time sack record in college. Silva writes that he might have been a first-rounder if not for a fight that happened at a McDonald’s before college, which caused the NFL to rescind his Combine invite amid concerns of the league’s image. By all accounts it seems the Ravens got a very talented player who should contribute immediately. ZaDarius Smith was a loss, but he’s not worth the $16.5 million per season Green Bay just paid him. The team also must be hopeful that Tim Williams and Tyrus Bowser step into bigger roles in their third years in the NFL.

CJ Mosley will never be worth the $17 million the Jets gave him as an inside linebacker and it seems Baltimore will be able to rely on Patrick Onwuasor and Kenny Young, but should likely add some depth in free agency.

It all leads to a Ravens roster whose only real needs are an improvement at center, some depth at inside linebacker, and, dependent on how the team feels about Williams and Bowser, maybe some help at edge rusher.

Ezekiel Ansah’s visit to the facility is a nice sign. A signing like Ansah would be the kind of value signing that Elvis Dumervil was in 2013 at $5.75 million per season over four years. Dumervil produced 10 sacks per 16 games during his time in purple and black. I imagine that Alex Okafor’s three-year, $24 million pact with the Chiefs stands as a reasonable expectation for what the Ravens want to sign Ansah at with a willingness to go to $10 million per year. I imagine Ansah looks at the $16.5 million that Smith just signed for and envies that, but he’s not going to get near that, so he’s probably reset expectations near $12 million.

In my study of top teams, it seems that the best organizations seem to find these typically third contract values at edge rusher, a position that ages fairly well and has a very reasonable player cost when they start to approach 30-years old. These organizations seem to avoid players at this position entering their second contracts with the Patriots famously trading away Chandler Jones to the Cardinals prior to the 2016 season. Jones would go on to continue to be one of the best edge defenders in the NFL on these bad Cardinals teams the last few years, leading the league in sacks and tackles for loss in 2017. Meanwhile, the Patriots have been in the last three Super Bowls and didn’t miss a beat without Jones. We all know they won’t suffer from the loss of Trey Flowers this offseason either, Belichick always finds a way with third contract trade acquisition Michael Bennett being part of that solution. The Ravens are one of these organizations.

Ansah isn’t a “third contract player,” but rather a player entering his seventh year after a five-year rookie deal and a franchise tag. The Ghanaian born and bred Ansah entered the league late at the age of 24 after coming to the sport during his sophomore year at BYU, where he attended after being recruited to the school by a missionary who became a friend. Ansah turns 30 years old on May 29^th and he’s coming off an injury-shortened season, which is part of what’s led to the unsatisfactory market that has him still unsigned.

Earl Thomas makes a team that ranked second in the NFL with just 5.4 net yards per pass attempt, and fifth in total passing yards allowed, even better. Replacing the loss of Suggs and Smith with Ferguson and Ansah would help continue to produce an elite pass defense.

Looking at the depth at center and at inside linebacker, Matt Skura is slated to be the started in 2019, while 2018 sixth round pick Bradley Bozeman out of Alabama is his competition on the roster. If the staff thinks there’s a need to add depth to the interior of the offensive line, 34-year old center John Sullivan, who played for the Super Bowl runner up Rams who were tops in the NFL in run blocking and in the top ten in pass blocking, is still a free agent. He would probably only cost two to three million per year, but Travis Swanson, previously of the Dolphins, would be a cheaper option. The Chargers Mike Pouncey is a potential cut or trade candidate, but that seems less likely for Baltimore.

Left guard Alex Lewis is a bit of a liability heading into his third season, but fourth round pick Ben Powers out of Oklahoma was one of the best pass blockers in college the last two years earning PFF pass blocking grades of 87.7 his junior year and 88.9 his senior year. Powers could be the piece that improves this offensive line the most.

At linebacker, Manti Te’o is still on the market and he’s a player that many had linked to the Ravens during the draft process. He won’t cost more than $2 million per season. Two Lees at linebacker make for potential trade candidates with late round picks likely being all it takes to secure them.

Sean Lee is beloved in Dallas, but injuries and the emergence of Jaylon Smith and 2018 first round pick Leighton Vander Esch have made him expendable. The Cowboys have a projected $20 million in cap space before factoring in their rookies, but Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Ezekiel Elliott, and Byron Jones are all up for extensions, so the $2.9 million they could save by releasing Sean.

With the additions of Mosley to a linebacker group that already had Avery Williamson, plus the drafting of Blake Cashman out of Minnesota in the fifth round, Chris Trapasso of CBS Sports projects that former first round pick Darron Lee is someone the team will be looking to move on from. Sean would cost a new team just over $3 million, while Darron would cost $1.3 million.

From a cap perspective, everything they need could be had with the current $12.8 million in cap space. If they were to sign Ansah and he cost say $10 or even $12 million per year, the team could structure it in a way that pushed some of that money and cap accounting into 2020 where the Ravens currently have $57 million in cap space. They could use the signing bonus to get him higher year one earnings with a lower year one cap hit.

If Baltimore does need to clear some space for another move, people have mentioned Brandon Williams as a cut or trade candidate with the drafting of Daylon Mack and Michael Pierce becoming an elite interior defender. Williams could create $6.25 million in cap space versus his current $14.1 million cap hit, but that’s not something I see the team doing. While Williams skills as a run stopper aren’t as highly valued as pass rushers, with the defensive backfield the team has, a run stopper up the middle could really restrict the strategies an opponent could employ on offense.

Brandon Carr with his $7 million cap hit with just $1 million in dead money is still a candidate for a release. An extension for Ronnie Stanley could also decrease his $12.9 million cap hit, but with the way the tackle market is exploding, it’s going to take a high number to stop him from waiting for free agency.

Overall, the Ravens are in a strong salary cap position for 2019 and moving forward. That almost $60 million in space for 2020 is more than enough to continue to build this team around Jackson with his low-cost being a huge reason for the excitement that surrounds this organization heading into the season. The 2019 season will be Baltimore’s first real crack at this Super Bowl window, but 2020 could be even better, especially considering that Jackson will have another year to improve and mature as a passer, which, according to PFF, is something he’s done every year of his carer back to his freshman year at Louisville.

The post Ravens Salary Cap Position After 2019 NFL Draft appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Some could argue that Flacco’s supporting casts during his final years in Baltimore weren’t great, and they wouldn’t be wrong, but when you’re paid a record setting contract in 2013, a record breaking extension in 2016, and 14% of the salary cap since 2016, you’re expected to be an elevator of the talent around you. In fact, your quarterback has to be an elevator because his roster isn’t likely to be as strong due to these high costs.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

In the case of the Ravens, they decided to invest money and draft picks into their offensive line and defense with the understanding being that they’d have to find late-round talent to combine with wide receiving talent in the latter stages of their career.

Some teams will further invest into the passing game strategy, but the Ravens didn’t necessarily do the best job surrounding Flacco with talent. Gordon McGuinness pointed out that since Flacco was drafted in the first round of the 2008 draft, the Ravens have used just two (!) of their 33 picks that have come in the first three rounds since that time on wide receivers. They were Torrey Smith and Breshad Perriman.

Baltimore hasn’t drafted a running back in the first three rounds since Bernard Pierce in the third round of 2012.

While I understand the Ravens have had success with a strategy focused on finding low-cost contributors at wide receiver, typically on their third contracts or later like Anquan Boldin and Steve Smith. Baltimore’s attempts at replicating this with Mike Wallace and Michael Crabtree that haven’t worked out as it pertains to the win/loss column.

Adam Schefter shared this interesting summary of who Flacco has been since he got off his rookie contract:

The Ravens have moved on and they’re happy because Lamar Jackson is at quarterback and, despite his inefficiencies and issues, he’s a rookie contract quarterback who will cost one to one and a half percent of the cap for the next three years. Where he lacks in accuracy, he adds the ability to run the football and with all that cap space, the organization is in a position to re-create the Super Bowl strategy that has worked for them in the past: a low-cost quarterback with a strong rushing attack to lean on and a phenomenal defense. With the cap space the team has, the front office can now use free agency to really, finally build a more explosive offense.

One could argue the Ravens haven’t had explosive pieces on offense since the 2012 team with Anquan Boldin, Torrey Smith, and Ray Rice or the 2014 team with Steve and Torrey Smith, plus Justin Forsett.

When it came down to it, I wrote in Caponomics: Building Super Bowl Champions that the main two strategies I see in the NFL are the high-cost quarterback strategy, which many teams supplement with going all in on the passing attack, and a low-cost quarterback strategy, which is almost exclusively rookie contract quarterbacks between one and four and a half percent of the cap, that allows an organization to build a more well rounded team that isn’t completely reliant on winning through passing.

Kevin Clark of The Ringer wrote that Howie Roseman once told him that “each offseason he studies the final four teams in the playoffs, examining factors ranging from draft strategy and scheme to the height and weight of players, as a way of identifying strategies his organization might implement.”

In 2017, the final four of New England, Philadelphia, Jacksonville, and Minnesota all had top-5 defenses. While the Vikings had Sam Bradford over 10% of the cap on the bench and Tom Brady was on a discounted cap hit under nine percent of the cap, three of the starters were on deals under four percent of the cap. Two of the teams were rolling with their back-ups at the start of the season and one of the teams had Blake Bortles as their quarterback!

Then the next season, the final four teams were the top four offenses in the NFL. The Patriots and Saints had Hall of Fame quarterbacks on deals at 12 and 13% of the cap, while the Rams and Chiefs had rookie contract quarterbacks.

Clark wrote a great Tweet when the Flacco news broke:

This has become a lesson of these last two seasons: if you’re trying to compete for a Super Bowl, then you’re either going to do it with a Hall of Fame level veteran on an expensive deal (or Tom Brady making a discount) or a rookie contract quarterback.

While the team never surrounded Flacco with elite skill position players, I don’t think anyone thinks he’s a Hall of Fame level veteran or the kind player who can lead a team to a Super Bowl at 14% of the cap, so the team was in a naturally tough position to succeed in.

And herein lies another issue with the huge Flacco contract. You can’t blame the Ravens for signing their Super Bowl winning quarterback to a record contract in the months following his remarkable playoff run to win that Super Bowl. Flacco had 285 yards per game, 9.0 yards per attempt, a 57.9% completion percentage, 11 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Moving on from him at that time would’ve been seen as a massive mistake across the league, especially prior to the 2013 Seahawks sort of illuminating this strategy of rookie contract success under the 2011 CBA that others are now replicating.

But Flacco was never a top of market type of a quarterback. Over the first five years of his career, he went 54-26, a .675 winning percentage, but he was able to lean on a defense that was ranked third in points allowed for every year of his career until the Super Bowl year where they were ranked 12^th. This lower ranking was ikely in large part due to field general Ray Lewis playing in only six games that season.

In 2008, Ray Rice’s rookie season as well, the perfect second round pick to pair with Flacco, the Ravens ranked fourth in the NFL in rushing behind a combination of Le’Ron McClain, Willis McGahee, and Rice. While you don’t want me to remind you of the 23-14 AFC Championship loss to the Steelers, the team made it all the way there with a rookie quarterback, leaning on a rushing attack that was 22^nd in the league in yards per attempt. Flacco led a passing offense that was 28^th in yards. They made it that far on the back of a defense and volume rushing attack that controlled the pace and style of the game.

In 2009, Ray Rice became the lead back with 1339 rushing yards and 702 receiving yards, plus a 5.3 yard per carry rate that pushed the team to fourth in rushing yards per attempt and fifth in rushing. The team bounced around the top half of the league in yards per rushing attempt through the 2012 season, which gave the offense a balanced attack that could grind out wins because of that great defense.

Ray Rice averaged 1877 scrimmage yards per seasons over these four seasons at 5.4 yards per touch. This is where an idea I’ve been bouncing around comes in. I think much of a running backs’ success comes from his offensive line play and how he’s used, but a player who can create 5.4 yards per touch 22 times per game is a very valuable player.

This may be part of what’s leading to teams investing first round picks in running backs more frequently over the last few seasons. It’s not just the rushing we’re talking about with running backs, some of these guys give you over 700 receiving yards as well, that’s something that’ll cost you some coin on the free agent market at receiver. This is an idea for us to consider within the context of the Ravens not investing in running backs the past few years.

When you look at Flacco’s raw stats as a rookie contract player, you don’t see a 13% of the salary cap, first tier quarterback. He averaged 220 yards per game over the first five years of his career before the veteran contract, 7.1 yards per attempt, a 60.5% completion percentage, 20 touchdowns per season and 11 interceptions. In defense of Flacco though, the team never ranked higher than 15^th in passing attempts and was in the bottom third of the NFL his first three seasons.

You could imagine a scenario where Flacco could become this first rate player, but a) it seemed fairly unlikely outside of that Super Bowl run and b) going expensive at quarterback threw the team out of it’s past strategy of a rush based offense with an elite defense. Even as they transitioned to a more pass based strategy, they couldn’t invest enough resources there.

Now, the question here is, is it that Flacco wasn’t or isn’t very good or is it that the Ravens didn’t properly allocate roster construction resources after signing Flacco to that extension? You could argue both ways.

In the Flacco wasn’t very good category there are the raw stats I shared earlier and there’s just the basic stats. Since 2013, his record has sunk to 42-41 due to the roster that surrounded him with his huge contract taking up chunks of cash and cap space that couldn’t be allocated elsewhere, and his not being capable of carrying the roster. In some ways, he was near a first tier level with a 62.6% completion percentage and 248 yards per game in the air, but that 6.5 yards per attempt is such a telling statistic. His 21 touchdowns to 15 interceptions per season is too.

Just as an example, the 2015 and 2016 teams were first in the NFL in passing attempts, but eighth and 12^th in passing yards. They were 22^nd in net passing yards per attempt at 6.1 in 2015 (when he played 10 of 16 games) and 26^th in 2016 at 5.8. From an efficiency standpoint, he wasn’t very good.

But on the other side, maybe they didn’t properly allocate resources considering what has already been explained regarding their lack of talent at receiver and running back.

Tight ends haven’t developed either in Baltimore, since Flacco got his new deal and the Ravens have spent a lot of draft capital at the position. In 2010, Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta were taken in the third and fourth round, then developed into solid starters with Pitta’s career being derailed by hip injuries.

They spent a 2014 third round pick on Crockett Gillmore, then second and fifth round picks on Maxx Williams and Nick Boyle the next year. None of these players have worked out for Baltimore and, considering the draft capital on Gillmore and Williams, this can’t be excused, some of the onus is on Flacco.

Maybe some of the onus has been on the offensive coordinators the past few years in regards to both Flacco, the tight ends, and the offense. Kubiak got a lot out of Flacco in 2014, but then Marc Trestman and Marty Mornhinwheig haven’t produced great offenses. New OC Greg Roman was brought in specifically for Jackson as the team may have knew they were aiming for a mobile QB in the 2019 draft before they hired him considering his history with Alex Smith, Colin Kaepernick and Tyrod Taylor.

Therein may lie an issue with Roman as an offensive coordinator moving forward. I don’t know if it’s a function of the style of offense he runs or the talent at quarterback for him, but Roman hasn’t been capable of drawing big passing averages out of quarterbacks in his career. Something to keep an eye on when you’re considering what this offense does schematically in a league that does need innovative passing strategies no matter if you plan on running the ball 30 to 35 times a game. That said, Roman is someone with a history of making things work with quarterbacks like Jackson, so the team has the right coordinator to make it work.

The good news for Ravens fans is that with Jackson, they’ve re-vamped the tight end group again with first round pick Hayden Hurst and third round pick Mark Andrews, which means that group looks settled with Jackson as the quarterback, but there’s much left to build around him.

Unlike the Flacco era, the team now will have the cap space to find some of those expensive pieces in free agency at positions that they haven’t drafted well. In their defense, it’s hard to build a roster around that kind of cap hit, while still maintaining the rest of the roster. Flacco was an average to below average quarterback on an expensive deal since winning his Super Bowl and the Ravens front office couldn’t overcome that to create a team that was better than average.

The goal for the 2019 offseason is to focus on the offensive side of the football to give Jackson more to work with and increase the probability of him taking a step forward in the coming season. The defense will be further improved through the mid-rounds of the draft, but cap space should be used in free agency on offense as well as the first round pick. Teams are going to study what the Chargers did to slow down the Ravens in the Wild Card Round all offseason and teams will create their own solutions to the problem this Jackson led offense presents, so the front office needs to make the pieces around him better, something they couldn’t do much of for Flacco.

Now, while Jackson will be inexpensive and it seems he’s the quarterback of the future, he has a long way to go if this team is going to get past AFC foes like New England, Kansas City, the Chargers, Texans, Colts, or even the surging Browns in 2019 to make a Super Bowl appearance. The offense must improve ot take this step.

Moving on from Flacco gave the team $32.5 million in cap space for the upcoming season. If cornerback Jimmy Smith is released, then that number increases to $42 million. No more Michael Crabtree puts the team around $46.67 million in cap space, then releasing Willie Snead would add another $6.2 million if he were released. This would put the organization at $52.87 million in cap space, then after factoring in draft costs for their seven draft picks in 2019, we see the team at about $46.2 million in cap space.

Releasing Brandon Carr could net the team $5 million in cap space. I don’t think that will happen with Smith being gone, but another possibility to clear space if the team has other plans.

Cap space could be between $40 to 46 million dependent on what they decide to do with receivers as getting rid of Crabtree and Snead, with John Brown a free agent, basically clears the whole receiving group out. While the receiving group wasn’t good, it might be a drastic change to have no one coming back next year. If I’m the team though, I’d rather get rid of them and take a new approach through the draft and free agency. The only receiver I’d want to keep would be re-signing John Brown for around $4-5 million a year if I didn’t get one of the other receivers on the market.

Playing with Over The Cap’s salary cap calculator, a restructure of interior defender Brandon Williams’ contract could open up another $5.63 million in cap space. A restructure of safety Tony Jefferson’s contract could create almost $3.6 million in cap space. Point being here, with over $40 million in cap space before considering potential restructures, the Ravens should be able to do whatever they desire in free agency.

The focus of the offseason is that with Jackson at quarterback, the Ravens are looking to succeed with the run-first offense with a strong defense strategy that earned them the 2000 Super Bowl, but with the added benefit of his mobility. While Jackson’s 163.5 passing yards per game aren’t going to win a Super Bowl, he adds 76.3 per game on the ground. That’s 239.8 yards per game. His per pass average of 7.1 isn’t terrible either. There’s room for improvement, but something to build on, and the front office has to know how to best facilitate an offense with the weapons around him to improve.

The main point of focus on defense will be re-signing inside linebacker CJ Mosley to a deal in the $11.5 to $13 million range depending if he hits free agency and someone else starts bidding. Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap thinks it will be at that $11.5 million number.

Terrell Suggs says he wants to keep playing, so he’s someone you’d keep around the $4 to $5 million range on a year-to-year basis. Za’Darius Smith became a very solid player this season after three average years and Fitzgerald thinks he’ll cost about $8 million per year. He’d be a player with the potential for value upside as it’s conceivable to think he’s going to continue to improve and, considering the high costs of that market, $8 or even $10 million is a bargain. He may be forgotten about in a deep edge rusher class, which would serve Baltimore.

With a lack of first-rate talent available at wide receiver in free agency, and with these top talents frequently being overvalued on the market due to even first rate WR2s rarely hitting the free agent market, it’s a position I’d look to avoid on in free agency, but one I would target with my first round pick at #22. Names that pop out from draft analysts in this spot are DK Metcalf out of Ole Miss and Kelvin Harmon from NC State.

Metcalf is coming off a neck injury that limited him to just seven games last year, but he is a physical freak and will be ready for the season. Something that jumps out in analysis about Harmon is that he’s had two 1000-yard seasons, Ryan Wilson from CBS Sports says, Harmon has the “ability to get in and out of breaks, sets up cornerbacks with his footwork, can make contested catches, and is a physically after-the-catch runner who also happens to be a willing blocker.” At 6’3”, 215-pounds, he is a big bodied, physical receiver who happens to be a deep threat as well.

Watching film, Harmon looks like a complete receiver to me with the ability to be a complete player with his blocking as well, something that will be important in such a run focused offense. He creates clear separation and really looks like he has the physicality and athleticism to be a #1 WR. He wins on every kind of route.

I’d like to see that kind of field stretching, complete addition to the receiver room to help Jackson take steps forward, but we’re going to need more there as well. If the team doesn’t re-sign Brown, the Ravens could continue their strategy of finding talented third contract receivers with a short-term $5 to $7 million a year pact with Golden Tate and be satisfied with finding a player who can create yards after catch for the young quarterback after short passes. Harmon would serve the team in a more complete role, while stretching the field deep for everything the team could set up underneath with the personnel I think they could secure.

The first big step I’d take in improving the offense in free agency isn’t at a skill spot though; it’s on the offensive line, a position group that didn’t give Jackson time to throw in that game against the Chargers with seven sacks and plenty more pressures.

Right guard Marshal Yanda becomes a free agent in 2020, left tackle Ronnie Stanley will have his fifth year option activated in a couple months and be under contract through 2020, and right tackle Trenton Brown was a rookie last season. If the team can improve at left guard and center, the rushing and passing attack will be further improved next year. In that game against the Chargers, Melvin Ingram moved all over the formation leading an interior pass rush that forced the Ravens to take out starting left guard James Hurst on the team’s second possession of the third quarter for Bradley Boseman. The Chargers had three sacks before his benching and four after according to Jeremy Bergman of NFL.com. Hurst finished the year with a 56.5 PFF rating, while center Matt Skura was rated 58.2.

This has become a theme of many of my analysis this offseason, but center Matt Paradis of the Broncos and left guard Rodger Saffold of the Rams are this year’s top players in the interior offensive line market. Fitzgerald thinks Saffold will see something around $11 million per year, while Paradis should be around $10.7 million a year on a three year deal. Baltimore could afford either one of them and it would help them have stability along the interior of the line with Yanda being a free agent after this season, his 35-year-old season. The loss of center Ryan Jensen to a market setting $10.5 million a year deal in Tampa Bay had an impact on this offensive line, so to potentially be without a veteran with Yanda a free agent next year, this would be a tough place to be with a group made up of cheap pieces. A bad offensive line could end any chance of the Ravens taking advantage of these cheap years for Jackson.

We’ve got some potential money outlays to players: CJ Mosley is going to make $11.5 million per year, an interior lineman at $11 million, Suggs around $5 million, $8 million per year for Za’Darius Smith, then either John Brown or Golden Tate around $5 million. That’s $50.5 million and we spoke of the cap space being between $40 and $46 million dependent on what’s done at receiver. Let’s call that $46 million because we’re factoring in the signing of Brown or Tate for if they got rid of Snead.

These contracts won’t be simply split into every contract year having a cap hit even with the average per year total. The Ravens, like many teams will likely structure the contracts to push some cap charges into the future by providing a sum of the early cash flows of the deal in the form of a signing bonus.

When you look at the average per years on their face, you could think the Ravens are $4.5 million over the cap. This is unlikely, the Ravens would probably give CJ Mosley, the interior lineman, and Za’Darius Smith signing bonuses with lower salaries in the early years because of the signing bonus. That could create $8 to $10 million in cap space right there, which puts the Ravens $3.5 to $5.5 million under the salary cap. The team can create $9.23 million more through re-structuring Williams and Jefferson as we said earlier, so if they did that, then the Ravens could have $12.73 to $14.73 million in cap space.

The Ravens front office could decide to do something different, like find a cheaper interior offensive lineman to improve blocking and have more cap space, but it’s key in my eyes to take advantage of Jackson’s rookie deal by making the best line possible and if they can get Paradis or Saffold. Voices around the industry spend so much time talking about the importance of the quarterback, but recent champions are proving the value of offensive and defensive lines. If you have the money to spend on either line, they are a great place to invest.

With this, the Ravens could make the biggest splash of all in free agency, a move that would help them go all in on this run-first defensive model, and a move that they could afford from a structural perspective in regard to the team roster construction with Lamar Jackson on such a cheap deal. And that move would be signing the 27-year old LeVeon Bell to a deal worth $15 million per year over the next four seasons.

Mosley, the interior offensive lineman, Suggs, and Smith are all safe investments. If they signed Tate at receiver, that’s a safe investment as well, Those five investments have high floors in terms of the probable return on investment, which makes the risks associated with signing Bell more manageable from a risk perspective and the risk may be worth the reward considering what Bell could bring the offense. While running backs may be a bad free agent value typically, free agent wide receivers have proven to be as well and with markets how they are in 2019, I’d rather draft to try and find the game changing receiver and sign Bell if I was in the position Baltimore is in.

There probably is no combination of free agent receivers out there that turn this Ravens passing attack around without the right choice in the first round, but Tyrell Williams of the Chargers is a name we’ll hear in the $12 million range. I’d rather spend $15 million a year on Bell than $12 million a year on Williams.

Signing a free agent running back is almost always seen as a bad decision and for good reason as almost none of them have worked out in the last decade. It’s been a historically bad idea, but if any running back had the raw ability or skill set to make it work, it’s a player who has averaged 81 catches for 686 receiving yards per 16 games over the course of his career. A running back who averaged 1377 rushing yards per 16 games and 11 total touchdowns.

We must also be cognizant of the value a 700-yard receiver at running back is and re-adjust how we perceive the market based on this fact and, like with what I said regarding Rice before, based on a player like Bell potentially producing 1800 to 2000 total yards on a season at 5.5 yards per touch. These playmakers are as important to an offense as a top playmaker at receiver is. I’m not saying every team should go spend a ton of money at running back, but I am seeing teams handle the situation differently, like drafting them in the first wrong, and I don’t think they’re wrong (of course, dependent on the current roster situation).

Although, having played only 12.4 games per season during his career due to missing 18 of 80 possible games over the first five years of his career via suspension or injury, his 1541 touches (308 per season) are a variable that makes you wonder how soon it will be before he breaks down. It’ll make you worry about if he’ll play about 75% of your games for you too.

In defense of the move for the Ravens, the main locations Bell has associated with as potential landing spots are all teams with massive amounts of cap space and two of them have rookie contract quarterbacks as well. The Texans and Jets both have a ton of cap space and rookie contract quarterbacks, while the Colts and Raiders have loads of cap space and draft capital to improve the rest of the roster, thus creating the opportunity to fit Bell into their formula of success. The Ravens make sense in this grouping because of this rookie contract quarterback, because of the almost $50 million in cap space, and, most of all, because of the need to give Jackson a deadly rushing attack with Gus Edwards as well coming on last season, plus an elite pass catching running back to make the young quarterback’s job easier.

Lamar Jackson has the capability of being a 1000-yard rusher. Now consider what this team looks like with another year of steady improvement as a passer, a trend that dates back to college per PFF as he has become more familiar with running an offensive system every year after spending his high school years as a freelancer behind center because his otherworldly athletic ability made that a possible strategy.

With the moves we discussed, the offense would have first round pick Kelvin Harmon out wide, free agent signee Golden Tate in the slot, Mark Andrews and Hayden Hurst at tight end, a backfield tandem of Bell and Gus Edwards, an improved offensive line, and a similar group of players to what produced the NFL’s second best scoring defense in 2018 with some added draft picks, this is a team that can succeed with Jackson at quarterback. And it’s feasible that all of this could be built because of Jackson’s contract.

Furthermore, the Ravens are in a unique position with a quarterback at such a low-cost, plus no top of market expenses at edge rusher, cornerback, wide receiver, and left tackle, until Ronnie Stanley gets paid. The team is projected to have as much as $110 million in cap space during the 2020 offseason before these contracts we discussed are signed, and even then they’ll have about $50 million in cap space left over, meaning room to further improve on what happens in 2019.

If the team weren’t to sign Bell, I’d advocate for taking a running back in the third round, but signing Bell opens the team up to using the three picks in the third and fourth round to secure pass rushers and defensive backs to fortify the defensive group further with the hope they find a starter or two there. Of course, taking a running back in the third round could be a totally valid solution, which then gives the team an extra $15 million per year to spend preferably on that defense.

I’d then use the three picks in the fifth and sixth rounds to fortify the interior of the offensive line and make a bet on a receiver and another defensive back as some talent can be found in these rounds. Caponomics has an analysis of position groups by draft round and their probability of becoming a starter if you want to look deeper into this.

We have seen the 2012 Ravens, 2013 Seahawks, and 2017 Eagles win Super Bowls with rookie contract players at quarterback making far below the veteran market rates. The 2018 Chiefs and Rams were excellent because of the complete rosters around Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff. The Browns are the talk of the league with budding stars Baker Mayfield, Myles Garrett, Denzel Ward, and Nick Chubb all on low-cost rookie contract quarterbacks.

The Bears made a huge leap forward in 2018 by signing defensive end Khalil Mack to a $23.5 million deal after trading two first round picks for him, wide receiver Allen Robinson to a $14 million deal, re-signing cornerback Kyle Fuller at $14 million per year, and signing former Eagles tight end Trey Burton to an $8 million per year contract. Trubisky was a much better player for a team that ended ninth in points scored and first in points allowed.

This is the Ravens Super Bowl window with Jackson at such a low-cost, so the goal must be to do what these other championship teams have done with rookie contract quarterbacks:

– Provide the quarterback with an offensive line to protect him and help facilitate an elite rushing attack.

– Give that quarterback weapons to facilitate his success.

– Create a defense that puts pressure on the quarterback with a defensive backfield capable of defending a quantity of mismatches.

With the moves discussed in this article, the Ravens would have all of this and the Super Bowl chances could become very real. It’s all on Lamar Jackson though, will he improve as a passer to give this team enough to succeed?

We will see what happens, but what happens over the course of the next three months will determine what kind of team he’ll have around him and the probability of this roster competing for a championship now and through Jackson’s rookie deal.

This team’s Super bowl window is right now. This offseason will help determine if that happens or if the Ravens miss out on capitalizing on one of the greatest values in all of sport: the rookie contract quarterback.

Zack Moore is a writer for OverTheCap.com and author of the recently released book titled, “Caponomics: Building Super Bowl Champions,” which is now available on Amazon. You can follow him on Twitter @ZackMooreNFL.

The post Baltimore Ravens 2019 Salary Cap & Roster Construction Discussion appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.