Both of these games were a tough start for the betting public, with 59% of bets placed on the Eagles to cover the spread (-8.5) and 63% of the bets placed on the Chiefs to cover their spread of 3 points over the Chargers. The Eagles’ studs, namely Saquon Barkley and AJ Brown, also disappointed in the game, with Saquon Barkley finishing 30 yards below his projected rushing line and AJ Brown finishing with a whopping 61 yards below his projected receiving line.

But Sunday is when the 2025 NFL season really gets underway, with a full slate of games to look forward to. We’ve been waiting for this for months, so let’s get right into my favorite bets of Week 1.

(Note: Lines and odds are subject to change)

1. Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos

Pick: Denver Broncos -8 (-110 Fanatics)

Yes, I know 8 points is a large spread. In fact, it’s the largest of the Week. But to me this matchup doesn’t need to be overcomplicated – this is a rookie quarterback in Cam Ward going on the road against a Top 5 defense in the NFL.

The Broncos ranked as the 4th best defense overall, the 5th best pass rush, and 7th best coverage defense in 2024 according to Pro Football Focus, and comes into the 2025 season ranked as the #1 secondary in the NFL (Sharp Football Analysis).

Meanwhile, the Titans finished last season with the 7th worst ranked pass blocking offensive line and 9th worst receiving core (PFF). While not much was done over the off-season to revamp the receiving core, the Titans did at least make some improvements to the offensive line, adding veteran LT Dan Moore Jr and RG Kevin Zeitler to help protect Cam Ward.

Since 2015, rookie quarterbacks are 4-12-1 straight up in Week 1, and 7-9-1 against the spread, and in very few of those instances were those quarterbacks going up against a defense as stout as that of the Denver Broncos.

Both the public and the sharps lean heavily on this side too, with 75% of the bets and 97% of the money coming in on the Broncos to cover the spread.

Give me the Broncos -8 at home.

2. Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick: Over 46.5 Points (-110 DraftKings)

Two of the worst teams from last season, both with high hopes for 2025 after adding some big pieces to their offenses, face off in what I think could be a sneaky-fun Week 1 matchup. With the key additions of WR/CB Travis Hunter (2nd pick to the Jaguars) and WR Tet McMillan (8th pick to the Panthers), these teams have more potential star power at WR than they’ve had in recent memory.

While it remains to be seen exactly how Travis Hunter’s role will be defined given his ability to play on both sides of the ball, if the depth chart is any indication, the Jaguars are viewing Hunter as a WR first and a CB second.

The Jaguars are also getting their starting QB Trevor Lawrence back, after his 2024 was cut short due to injury. The Panthers and Bryce Young are hoping to build off of a strong ending to 2024 where they finished 7-2 ATS while averaging over 24 points-per-game over their final 9 games.

So, why Over 46.5? These defenses both leave a lot to be desired.

Coming into the 2025 season, the Panthers and Jaguars secondaries are tied for 30th-ranked according to Sharp Football Analytics. And let’s not forget, the Carolina Panthers did just set the NFL record for most points given up in a season last year, allowing a whopping 534 points.

Put simply, I don’t believe either of these teams did enough over the off-season to stop what should be improved offenses for both teams.

I’ll take the Over 46.5 points.

3. Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

Pick 1 : David Njoku O47.5 Rec Yards: (-110 FanDuel)

Pick 2: Ja’Marr Chase O80.5 Rec Yards: (-117 BetRivers) and/or Ja’Marr Chase O6.5 Receptions (-118 FanDuel)

Bonus: David Njoku Anytime TD Scorer (+260 on Fanatics)

Pick 1: David Njoku O47.5 Rec Yards (-110 FanDuel) If this clip isn’t evidence enough that Joe Flacco winning the starting QB job for the Browns isn’t exactly what David Njoku was hoping for, I don’t know what is.

In all seriousness, in the limited sample size we have of Flacco and Njoku playing together, their connection has been elite. In the 5 games with these two together, Njoku has averaged 78 yards receiving per game and has scored 4 TDs (across 3 games).

If that’s not enough, let’s also look at the Bengals defense on the other side of the ball. The Bengals gave up the most fantasy points per game to TE in the NFL (10.1) and trailed only the

Panthers with the number of TDs allowed to the position (10 to the Panthers’ 11). The Bengals gave up an average of 65.5 receiving yards per game to the position in 2024, again good for worst in the league.

This game feels like one where the Browns will need to throw the ball a lot to keep up with Cincinnati’s potent offense, and Njoku should be Flacco’s safest target to do just that.

The 47.5 Receiving Yards line feels way too low and Njoku’s +260 odds for ‘Anytime TD’ also feels mispriced here.

Pick 2: Ja’Marr Chase O80.5 Rec Yards: (-117 BetRivers) and/or Ja’Marr Chase O6.5 Receptions (-118 FanDuel)

This might be a chalk pick, but there’s a reason for it. Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving line simply should not be this low. Chase has hit the Over 80.5 receiving yards numbers in 7 of his last 10 games and has hit the Over 6.5 Receptions in 8 of his last 10 games, with his 2 misses being 6 catches each.

As I mentioned for Njoku, I’m expecting some back and forth scoring in this game, and with the Browns’ somewhat murky running back situation I wouldn’t be surprised if Browns’ head coach Kevin Stefanski lets Flacco air it out a bit. With the Bengals doing very little over the offseason besides re-signing Trey Hendrickson to bolster what was a poor defense in 2024, I’m expecting Flacco to have some success. Given this, Burrow will need to respond, and what better way to do so than to feed the best WR in the NFL.

I’ll take either of Chase’s Overs on yards or receptions here.

4. Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots

Pick: Stefon Diggs O4.5 Receptions (-103 DraftKings)

Stefon Diggs is a tricky player in 2025. Once a top-tier receiver, Diggs’ usage has dropped as he has aged, and he is coming off of a season-ending ACL injury.

With that being said, I think Diggs can easily have a 5+ catch game here. The Patriots and Drake Maye are in desperate need of a wide receiver stepping up as their WR1 and Diggs is the most likely candidate to do that.

Diggs has hit his receptions over in 7 of his last 8 games (with Houston) and that was while competing with significantly better WRs for targets. The Raiders also had the worst coverage grade in the NFL in 2024 according to PFF, and after doing very little to improve their secondary in the off-season, come in as the worst-ranked secondary in the NFL yet again (Sharp Football Analysis).

The Drake Maye hype is real, and for him to really take the next step as a quarterback in this league, Diggs will need to play a big part.

Honorable Mentions:

1. Derrick Henry Over 82.5 Rush Yards vs Buffalo Bills (-114 FanDuel)

2. Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets: Under 38 Total Points (-110 BetMGM)

3. Michael Penix Under 21.5 Completions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-120 Fanatics)

4. Mark Andrews Anytime TD Scorer (+170 FanDuel)

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The post NFL Week 1: Best Bets appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Georgia remains the #1 team in the AP poll, but they seem much more vulnerable, on offense particularly, than they have in the previous two seasons. In each of their two conference games so far, against South Carolina and Auburn, the Bulldogs trailed in the 3rd Quarter and did not cover the spread. QB Carson Beck has been adequate, and stepped up when necessary, but it doesn’t seem like they are asking too much of him just yet. Their running game averages a very middling 4.4 yards per attempt. Their primary receiving weapon is TE Brock Bowers, a stud who completely took over the game in the 4th Quarter against Auburn, but not a guy who stresses defenses to cover the entire field. The Bulldogs lack explosive playmakers and are forced to score by methodically moving the ball downfield in 10 play drives. More plays = more opportunities for a mistake that can derail a drive. Also as they move into opposing territory the field shrinks, an advantage to the defense. Their defense is still elite, and as long as that is the case they remain a title contender; but come postseason, when the competition is tougher, their offense is going to have to pick it up.

All of that was to say, this season feels more wide open than any in recent history as far as who the true title contenders are.

Alabama has righted itself after the loss to Texas and the debacle at South Florida. Like Georgia, their strength is definitely on the defensive side of the ball. They blanked an Ole Miss squad in the second half that would go on to hang 55 points on LSU in its next game, and cruised to an easy victory against Mississippi State last weekend. I don’t think why’re out of the water though. They travel to Texas A&M Saturday, and that has the same sort of feel going in that other recent games have in which Alabama struggles, mostly due to self-inflicted mistakes.

The cannibalization of the Pac-12 appears well under way. First Washington State knocked Oregon State from the ranks of the unbeaten. Then it was the Beavers turn last Friday night, defeating then-#10 Utah. Obviously no conference is going to have a bunch of 12-0 teams left standing at the end of the regular season, as basic math tells us. What has been a problem in the past is that the Pac-12 has not had a team go 12-0 since Oregon in 2010. More problematic has been that since then only two teams have finished the season with just one loss, that being Oregon in 2014 and Washington in 2016. Not coincidentally, they were the only two teams from the Pac-12 to ever make the College Football Playoff. So while the Pac-12 appears to be outstanding this season, maybe the best in the country, can anyone get through that gauntlet with one loss or less? Oregon, Washington and USC look like the best bets, but each of them has a meat-grinder of a schedule they have to get through first, including the three of them playing each other. Is the Pac-12 good enough that a 2-loss champion could crash the CFP 1-loss maximum glass ceiling? While I’d say the chance is non-zero, I think it’s highly unlikely. Someone is going to have to survive this West Coast Hunger Games if the Pac-12 is to make the playoff in its last season.

Rankings

My 4 Playoff Teams

1. Georgia, 2. Texas, 3. Michigan, 4. Florida State

My 12-Team Playoff Field w/1st Round Matchups

1. Georgia (bye)
2. Texas (bye)
3. Michigan (bye)
4. Florida State (bye)
5. Washington vs 12. Fresno State
6. Ohio State vs 11. Miami
7. Penn State vs 10. Notre Dame
8. Oregon vs 9. USC

Week 6 Picks

Oklahoma vs. Texas – at Dallas (Noon ET, ABC, Line: Texas -6.5)

This feels like the first of two meetings these teams will have, the Big 12 Championship Game being the next. If that’s the case, it has to be the worst nightmare for the rest of the conference to see the SEC departees dominate the narrative on their way out the door. This rivalry has historically featured close games. Both of these offenses are explosive. I trust Texas’ defense more than Oklahoma’s, and the Longhorns schedule this far has them more battle-tested. I think they’ll prevail, but it’ll be close.

Pick: Oklahoma +6.5, Texas S/U

Maryland at Ohio State (Noon ET, FOX, Line: Ohio State -19.5)

I think a strong case can be made that Maryland is the 4th best team in the Big Ten this season. The question is how far behind the Top 3 are they? They kept it very close against the Buckeyes last season, and I think the personnel are there to do it again. The question for the Terps has always been about execution and not letting the game get away from them if they fall behind. I think they’ll keep it just close enough to cover.

Pick: Maryland +19.5, OSU S/U

LSU at Missouri (Noon ET, ESPN, Line: LSU -5.5)

I don’t like what I’ve seen from LSU’s defense this season. And Mizzou’s Brady Cook – Luther Burden combo could give them fits. The Tigers’ (Missouri, that is) just needs to slow down Jayden Daniels and Co enough to give themselves a chance. I think they will.

Pick: Missouri +5.5, LSU S/U

Alabama at Texas A&M (3:30pm ET, CBS, Line: Alabama -2.5)

As I mentioned above, this is the kind of game where Alabama has really struggled the last couple seasons – on the road in a hostile environment against a talented, but lesser team – and the Tide themselves were usually to blame for those struggles. The difference was before they had Bryce Young, who often – though not always – bailed them out. Jalen Milroe isn’t that type of QB, especially against a very good Aggie defense. On the other hand, Alabama’s defense has mostly been excellent, and I’m not sure Max Johnson can pull a Quinn Ewers act against them. So expect a tight, low scoring game that might come down to a last-second FG. By the way, the last time these teams met in College Station, that’s exactly how it ended. I’ll bet on the repeat.

Pick: Texas A&M +2.5 and S/U

Kentucky at Georgia (7pm ET, ESPN, Line: Georgia -14.5)

The Bulldogs are winless against the spread this season (0-4-1). Kentucky play a style that should be able to go on the road and keep it just close enough to cover against a middling offense.

Pick: Kentucky +14.5, Georgia S/U

Notre Dame at Louisville (7:30pm ET, ABC, Line: Notre Dame -6.5)

Louisville feels like this year’s version of 2022 Syracuse, who raced out to a 6-0 start – and #18 ranking – against a mostly light schedule before losing 5 of their last 6 when the opponents got tougher. One of the teams that brought the Orange back to reality was Notre Dame. I think the Irish will do the same to the Cardinals this year.

Pick: Notre Dame -6.5 and S/U

The post College Football 2023 – Post Week 5/Week 6 Preview appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Pick

Chiefs 35, Jaguars 28

ATS

Jaguars +8.5

Total

Over 52

Analysis

Home teams were 4-2 in the wildcard weekend, and five of the six “overs” hit. I suspect more of the same from this game. The Chiefs finished the season on a 5-game winning streak, but those wins came with a 9.4-point average margin of victory. They’re winning, but they aren’t blowing teams out by 20 points. Even the Texans took them to overtime.

The Jaguars come into Kansas City after ending the regular season with a 5-game winning streak as well. Last week, they overcame a horrendous start to beat the Chargers. Jacksonville doesn’t know how to quit. Not only that, but they could also win Saturday.

That said, given Andy Reid’s stellar record after a bye and Patrick Mahomes being the front-runner for league MVP, I can’t see the Chiefs losing. I’m going to take the points and the over for what should be a wild one.

When this game kicks off, Reid will have coached in his 36th-career playoff game, tying him with Don Shula and Tom Landry for 2nd all-time. If he wins, he will gain playoff win no. 20, making him one of three coaches ever to reach that mark (Belichick 31, Landry 20). It’s so hard to bet against that kind of experience.

No. 6 Giants at No. 1 Eagles, Saturday 1/21 at 8:15 pm ET on FOX

Pick

Eagles 31, Giants 27

ATS

Giants +7.5

Total

Over 48

Analysis

Last week the Giants were one of two road teams to claim victory, however the Vikings defense didn’t play as well as they could’ve. Much of what the Giants accomplished on offense was due to the perimeter running of Daniel Jones. At one point, they ran Daniel Jones on the perimeter play after play, and for some reason, the Vikings didn’t key on that. I have to believe the Eagles won’t allow Jones to run for 78 yards like he did last week. In his one game against the Eagles this year, Jones only managed 26 yards on four carries.

The Eagles are coming off a bye, which was crucial for Jalen Hurts to solidify his recovery. While A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith are dynamic wide receiver options for Hurts, he may choose to divert targets to tight end Dallas Goedert this week. Against the Giants, the Vikings were able to have great success throwing to tight ends (12 receptions, 144 yards, 12.0 yard average, 1 TD).

On defense, the Giants had really good success rushing four, but rushing them in both A and D gaps. In an unusual look, Wink Martindale pressured right up the middle and wider than normal, leaving offensive linemen to do more communicating and lateral movement than perhaps they’re used to. If the Eagles can stunt the Giants’ pressure and pick up looping blitzers, I think they win the game. Even if the Giants rush breaks through, Hurts is fully capable of gashing the Giants on the ground.

Philadelphia is one win away from hosting a conference championship game for the 5th time in the last 20 years. I think they’ll be ready.

No. 3 Bengals at No. 2 Bills, Sunday 1/22 at 1:00 pm ET on CBS

Pick

Bills 24, Bengals 23

ATS

Bengals +5

Total

Under 50.5

Analysis

Buffalo showed a lot of heart and a lot of vulnerability last week when barely beating the Dolphins. A lot of what they did impressed, but a lot of what they did caused concern. Can they limit their mistakes this week against a fantastic Bengals team?

The Bills will need to take care of the ball, first and foremost. If they give the ball away three times like they did against the Dolphins, this game will surely be won by the Bengals. If not, if Josh Allen doesn’t try to do too much, and if Buffalo can get something from their ground game, I think the Bills win this one.

Because of their mental makeup and offensive talent, I’m going to take the Bengals and the points against the spread. But, if we’re talking about who wins the game, I don’t see how you can pick against the Bills.

As fate would have it, this is the same game in which Demar Hamlin was critically injured in and nearly passed away, two weeks ago to the day. I can’t imagine a more emotional setting.

No. 5 Cowboys at No. 2 49ers, Sunday 1/22 at 4:30 pm ET on FOX

Pick

49ers 29, Cowboys 23

ATS

49ers -4

Total

Over 46

Analysis

Last year, these two teams met in the wildcard round in Dallas. The 49ers prevailed, 23-17, in a very hard-fought game. Each team made 20 first downs, gained over 300 yards of offense, and turned the ball over just once. As for this year, judging by the spreads, this should be the closest game of the weekend.

San Francisco went 9-1 at home this season (playoffs included). Their one loss came at the hands of the Chiefs in Week 7. Since then, the Niners have won seven straight games in Santa Clara and 10 straight games overall. Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel are healthy, Brock Purdy has plenty of confidence, and Kyle Shanahan is calling plays as good as he ever has. The Cowboys could win, but that would take a big reversal of everything we’ve seen from these teams over the last two years.

Betting is a probability prospect, and the numbers clearly favor San Francisco. I’m picking the 49ers and laying the points.

The post The Lineup: 2022 Divisional Round appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

2022 totals: ATS 137-126-8 (51.3%), over/under 131-137-3 (48.9%)

No. 7 Seahawks at No. 2 49ers, Saturday 1/14 at 4:30 pm ET on FOX

Pick

49ers 28, Seahawks 20

ATS

Seahawks +10

Total

Over 43.5

Meetings this year

2-0 49ers, +28 point differential

Analysis

The Seahawks have an offense. Geno Smith threw 30 touchdowns in the regular season—one of four quarterbacks to do so. Kenneth Walker III is a stud rookie running back that will carry the team if need be. DK Metcalf, is, well, unguardable when he wants to be.

I think the 49ers win this game, but a rookie quarterback starting his first playoff game is something that can cause disruptions to San Francisco’s offensive tempo. One missed play call, one delay of game, one bad read can be the difference between winning and losing.

Ten points is a crazy line, so I’m definitely taking the Seahawks and the points. I think they have a good chance to win outright, as well. But at the end of the day, I like DeMeco Ryans to limit the Seattle offense enough to allow Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle to each score a touchdown and team up for over 250 total yards.

No. 5 Chargers at No. 4 Jaguars, Saturday 1/14 at 8:15 pm ET on NBC

Pick

Jaguars 23, Chargers 21

ATS

Jaguars -1

Total

Under 47

Meeting this year

38-10 Jaguars win

Analysis

Face it, the Jaguars are a good team. The Chargers, for all their talent, have holes. As the line suggests, this game is essentially a “pick ‘em.” In these situations, I look at the quarterbacks. Is there really a big gap between the two? Not as big as you’d think:

• Justin Herbert: 4,739 passing yards, 68.2% completion, 25 TD, 10 INT, 93.2 rating
• Trevor Lawrence: 4,113 passing yards, 66.3% completion, 25 TD, 8 INT, 95.2 rating

The two main differences between these quarterbacks are passing yards and sacks. Herbert throws for more yards but has also been sacked more than Lawrence. That tells me the Chargers offense is more volatile than Jacksonville’s, giving me confidence the Jaguars (at home) will eek this one out.

Evan Engram is my x-factor for this game. When these two teams met in Week 3, he caught one pass for nine yards. However, since the start of December, Engram has averaged six receptions for 68 yards per game and has scored three touchdowns. If he gets going, it could be a long day for Los Angeles.

No. 7 Dolphins at No. 2 Bills, Sunday 1/15 at 1:00 pm on CBS

Pick

Bills 23, Dolphins 20

ATS

Dolphins +11

Total

Under 44

Meetings this year

1-1, Bills +1 point differential

Analysis

If Tua Tagovailoa is healthy, I love the Dolphins +11 points. I think the combination of Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle, and Tyreek Hill is dangerous, even on the road in Buffalo.

If Tua isn’t healthy, this one could get ugly quick. The Dolphins defense is pretty good, but if they have to take on more of their fair share of the burden, they could bend just enough to give Buffalo a window to go up two scores. If that happens, I don’t see Miami’s offense coming from behind on the road.

No. 6 Giants at No. 3 Vikings, Sunday 1/15 at 4:30 pm on FOX

Pick

Vikings 26, Giants 21

ATS

Vikings -3

Total

Under 47.5

Meeting this year

27-24 Vikings win

Analysis

Justin Jefferson, the league’s leading receiver, has been having some “down” games recently. Expect him to go off Sunday afternoon. The last time these two teams met, Jefferson caught 12 passes (season high) for 133 yards and a touchdown.

I like Saquon Barkley and I think Daniel Jones is a good quarterback. Yet, if Jefferson starts hot, Minnesota has too many other horses for New York to compete with. Even if Jefferson doesn’t have a huge game, the Vikings have enough supplementary weapons to give the Giants fits.

I think the Minnesota money line is a solid bet, and I’m comfortable giving the three points. I may even tease it up to four points by week’s end.

No. 6 Ravens at No. 3 Bengals, Sunday 1/15 at 8:15 pm on NBC

Pick

Ravens 23, Bengals 21

ATS

Ravens +6.5

Total

Over 43.5

Meetings this year

1-1, Bengals +9 point differential

Analysis

This game is all about one thing: Lamar Jackson. If he plays, I think the Ravens win outright. If not, as much as I want Baltimore to triumph, it’s hard to see a way they do.

Last week, Baltimore’s defense played pretty well, all things considered. The Ravens offense turned the ball over three times and the Bengals, playing their starters, could’ve had a lot more points on the scoreboard if it weren’t for the Ravens’ resolute Ravens defenders. Specifically, the Bengals only managed 55 yards rushing—their 3rd lowest total of the season. Joe Burrow averaged just 5.1 yards per attempt (well below his career average of 7.7 yards).

I’m telling you; the playoffs are famous for lightning-quick turnarounds (in both directions). As bad as the Ravens have looked over the last few weeks, if Jackson plays, this could be the upset of the playoffs.

You never know.

No. 5 Cowboys at No. 4 Buccaneers, Monday 1/16 at 8:15 pm on ESPN

Pick

Buccaneers 20, Cowboys 16

ATS

Buccaneers +3

Total

Under 45

Meetings this year

19-3 Buccaneers win

Analysis

Wow. How bad did the Cowboys look last week? At some point, you can’t keep making excuses for them. Sure, they have talented individual players. Yes, a 12-win season is a big accomplishment. Does it seem like they could’ve been much better this season? Absolutely.

Tampa Bay isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire, but the Buccaneers are clearly on more solid footing than the Cowboys. In Week 18, the Commanders gave the Cowboys every opportunity to win the game last week, but Dallas couldn’t get the job done.

I think Tampa Bay wins this game for one reason: their defensive front. As you saw last week, when Washington’s defense reset the line of scrimmage, Dallas’ offense was scrambling. Tampa Bay absolutely has the personnel to do the same thing to the Cowboys this week.

Take points and don’t look back.

The post The Lineup: 2022 NFL Wild Card Weekend appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Last week: ATS 8-7, over/under 8-7

Year to date: ATS 130-117-8, over/under 124-128-3* not counting MNF, Bills at Bengals

Chiefs (13-3) at Raiders (6-10), Saturday 1/7 at 4:30 pm ET

Pick

Chiefs 34, Raiders 23

ATS

Chiefs -9.5

Total

Over 53

Analysis

While the Raiders are out of the playoffs and the Chiefs are fighting for the AFC’s top seed, Las Vegas is still going to be competitive. The Raiders are one of those teams that doesn’t always win but can always score and keep you honest. That will be especially important this week, as the Chiefs barely escaped an upset bid by the double-digit underdog Broncos in Kansas City last Sunday. The Chiefs aren’t breaking down by any means, but they are showing enough signs to make you think the Raiders could cover.

That said, when push comes to shove, the playoffs is a stronger motivator than pride. It may take a backdoor cover, but I’m confident laying the points in this game.

Titans (7-9) at Jaguars (8-8), Saturday 1/7 at 8:15 pm ET

Pick

Jaguars 24, Titans 17

ATS

Jaguars -6.5

Total

Over 39

Analysis

This game will decide the AFC South championship. While recent weeks would lead you to believe the Jaguars are the clear favorites and the Titans are all but finished, that’s not exactly the case.

Even though 6 1/2 points is a big number, the Titans have won 5 of the last 6 and 9 of the last 11 times they’ve played the Jaguars. The last two times Tennessee went on the road for this game, the Titans have scored over 30 points.

The only reason I’m hesitant to take the points is because of Tennessee’s lack of stability at quarterback. Josh Dobbs is a playmaker, but he has nowhere near the cohesiveness with his teammates and coaches that Trevor Lawrence has with his teammates and coaches. I have to think that comes to fruition by way of a big 3rd down conversion or red zone score.

It should be one of the closer games we see this weekend, but I’m taking the Jaguars to win the AFC South and finish with their first winning season since 2017.

Buccaneers (8-8) at Falcons (6-10), Sunday 1/8 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Buccaneers 23, Falcons 14

ATS

Buccaneers +3

Total

Under 41

Analysis

Atlanta is made up of a bunch of fighters. They’re even favored this week. That said, Tampa Bay is just better. It remains to be seen if the Bucs will rest certain players, but we won’t know that for sure until later in the week. Take Tampa and the points.

Patriots (8-8) at Bills (12-3*), Sunday 1/8 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Bills 27, Patriots 14

ATS

Bills -7.5

Total

Under 42.5

Analysis

How can anyone think of football at a time like this? Of course, nothing matters besides Damar Hamlin being healed and his family gaining peace. There’s really nothing I can say. I’m at a loss for words. I can only offer prayer at this time.

As for the game, though we’re not sure if it’ll even be played as scheduled, it’s a distraction. So here we go…

New England is currently in control of the final playoff spot in the AFC. If they win in Buffalo this week, they’re in the playoffs (and would potentially play the Bills in Buffalo for the second week in a row).

Five weeks ago, the Bills took care of business in New England, 24-10. That kind of gap is going to be hard to overlook when forecasting the outcome of this contest. New England’s defense should have some success against Buffalo’s offense, but New England’s offense is too limited for me to think they will outscore Buffalo on the road in a game both teams desperately want to win.

Vikings (12-4) at Bears (3-13), Sunday 1/8 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Bears 19, Vikings 16

ATS

Bears +1.5

Total

Under 46.5

Analysis

What I saw from Minnesota at Green Bay last week was, in a word, bizarre. Green Bay has been in must-win mode for a while, but Minnesota wanted that game just as much (or so we thought). I have a feeling this game will be a big letdown for the Vikings and the Bears will have a chance to win outright.

Look at the spread. Chicago is only a 1 1/2-point underdog. The sharps think this will be a close game, and I agree. I just think Chicago finds a way to win, because I don’t think Minnesota can completely erase the malaise they played with in Green Bay in just seven days’ time.

Ravens (10-6) at Bengals (11-4*)

Sunday 1/8 at 1:00 pm ET (Bengals win MNF) OR 4:25 pm ET (Bills win MNF)

Pick

Bengals 24, Ravens 20

ATS

Ravens +7

Total

Over 42.5

Analysis

By the time this game kicks off, there will have been almost exactly three months since the last meeting between these two teams. In that last meeting, these teams played pretty even football. Joe Burrow put the Bengals ahead with a touchdown rush with 1:58 remaining, but the Ravens responded with a 43-yard Justin Tucker field goal as time expired to win the game, 19-17.

The one stat the kind of popped out at me was the number of sacks each team allowed. The Bengals gave up three sacks for 27 yards while the Ravens only allowed one sack for four yards. If Baltimore can bring Burrow down and keep their QB upright, that’ll go a long way in determining the outcome of this game. Quite frankly, I haven’t seen enough from Baltimore to make me think they’re where they need to be, so I’m going to predict a Bengals win but a Ravens cover.

I don’t think it’ll be a blowout either way. If Marcus Peters and Calais Campbell play, that may convince me Baltimore gets the win, but until I know those guys (and Lamar Jackson) are definitely playing, I’m going to predict the Bengals edge this one out.

Texans (2-13-1) at Colts (4-11-1), Sunday 1/8 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Texans 21, Colts 18

ATS

Texans +2.5

Total

Over 38

Analysis

This is one of the rare season finales where neither team has anything of substance to play for. Going by the eye test, I have to pick Houston to win outright, so I’m definitely taking the points.

Jets (7-9) at Dolphins (8-8), Sunday 1/8 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Dolphins 24, Jets 14

ATS

Miami -2.5

Total

Under 39.5

Analysis

New York is officially out of the playoffs, but Miami still has a chance. To make the postseason for the first time since 2016, the Dolphins will need to beat the Jets at home and have the Patriots lose to the Bills on the road. Miami is the better team now, but back on October 9th when these two teams first played, the Jets handed the Dolphins their most lopsided loss of the season (40-17).

Both teams enter Week 18 on a 5-game losing streak, and they’re both likely to start different quarterbacks than they started in Week 5. Therefore, I think this will be somewhat sloppy game. I also think the Dolphins take hold off in the 4th quarter, due to their talent at the skill positions at their collective motivation to claim a postseason berth.

Panthers (6-10) at Saints (7-9), Sunday 1/8 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Panthers 23, Saints 21

ATS

Panthers +3.5

Total

Over 41.5

Analysis

In Week 17, the Saints went to Philadelphia and doubled up the Eagles, 20-10. The Panthers, meanwhile, went to Tampa Bay and nearly upset the Buccaneers, but were no match for the Tom Brady-to-Mike Evans connection.

This is one of the tougher games to predict this week, as both teams don’t have much to play for, but both teams have also shown signs this season of playing dominant football against very good teams. It’s in situations like this where I prefer to avoid betting altogether. But, if I had to make a pick, I’d take the points.

Browns (7-9) at Steelers (8-8), Sunday 1/8 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Browns 21, Steelers 20

ATS

Browns +3

Total

Over 39

Analysis

Pittsburgh has an outside chance at playing in the postseason, while Cleveland’s reward for a win would be handing Mike Tomlin his first-ever losing season.

While the Ravens were inept a week ago, they did show some flashes of success in their offensive run game. I know Cleveland’s coaches watched that tape and got excited about how to put together a gameplan for Nick Chubb and company. When these teams faced off in Week 3, Cleveland ran 38 times for 171 yards (4.5 yard average). They also refrained from turning the ball over, on their way to a 29-17 win.

It’s going to be very, very close. Deshaun Watson isn’t back to being a playmaker yet, though he is making enough plays to keep the Browns on schedule. I have to think Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney will sack Kenny Pickett more than one time (the number of sacks the Browns had against Mitchell Trubisky when these teams last played).

With cautious optimism, I’ll take the Browns this week (straight up and against the spread).

Cardinals (4-12) at 49ers (12-4), Sunday 1/8 at 4:25 pm ET

Pick

49ers 28, Cardinals 3

ATS

49ers -14.5

Total

Under 40

Analysis

All of a sudden, the 49ers have a chance to lock up the NFC’s top seed. If they win and the Eagles lose, the 49ers will have a 1st round bye. The Cardinals, conversely, seemingly, just want the season to be over.

Double-digit spreads aren’t often spreads I like to entertain, but in this case, I don’t see a downside to giving the points. Christian McCaffrey’s health will be something to monitor as the week progresses, but as influential a player as he is, I don’t see the injury as something that’ll alter the outcome of this game.

Rams (5-11) at Seahawks (8-8), Sunday 1/8 at 4:25 pm ET

Pick

Seahawks 26, Rams 20

ATS

Rams +6.5

Total

Over 41.5

Analysis

Simply put, the Seahawks are a better football team. If they win, they’re in. Unfortunately, Jordyn Brooks, one of their key defensive players, sustained an ACL injury Sunday that’ll keep him out for the rest of the season. With Rams running back Cam Akers playing great football as of late (241 yards and three touchdowns rushing in the last two games), that’ll be a void to monitor. Still, the Seahawks have a beast of a running back of their own (Kenneth Walker III) as well as the superior quarterback.

In their eight homes games this season, the Seahawks are 4-4 with a point differential only +18. On the whole, they play close games. That’s enough for me to take the points but pick the Seahawks to win the game outright.

Chargers (10-6) at Broncos (4-12), Sunday 1/8 at 4:25 pm ET

Pick

Chargers 24, Broncos 20

ATS

Chargers -3

Total

Over 40.5

Analysis

Don’t overthink this one. Denver will play tough defense and maybe even turn the Chargers over a couple of times. However, I think Justin Herbert throws two touchdowns and rushes for a third, helping the Chargers win the 20th game of the Brandon Staley era.

Giants (9-6-1) at Eagles (13-3), Sunday 1/8 at 4:25 pm ET

Pick

Eagles 30, Giants 10

ATS

Eagles -14

Total

Under 43

Analysis

Just a few weeks ago, the Eagles were a Super Bowl favorite and Jalen Hurts was on the short list for league MVP candidates. Now, the Giants may have a shot to win this game. In the end, I don’t think they will, but that door is open.

Logic and recent form suggests you take the points, but something in my gut tells me Philadelphia will show up big on Sunday. I can’t put my finger on it, but I feel like they’re hardened enough to stop the bleeding and put in a strong performance as they prepare for what they hope is a deep playoff run.

Cowboys (12-4) at Commanders (7-8-1), Sunday 1/8 at 4:25 pm ET

Pick

Cowboys 27, Commanders 20

ATS

Cowboys -3.5

Total

Over 41.5

Analysis

If last week was any indication, this is going to get ugly. Carson Wentz has a lot of work to do if he is to remain the starting quarterback of the Commanders. Even if Taylor Heinicke is back under center for Washington, I just think the Cowboys are too good.

Lions (8-8) at Packers (8-8), Sunday 1/8 at 8:20 pm ET

Pick

Packers 28, Lions 27

ATS

Lions +4.5

Total

Over 48.5

Analysis

If the Seahawks lose, the winner of this game gets the NFC’s last playoff berth. Expect a high-scoring, tense football game—something the Lions specialize in.

It would not surprise me in the slightest if Detroit got the job done. I’m definitely going to take the points (as one of my stronger plays of the week), but I think the Packers do just enough to hang on and win the last regular season game of the 2022 season.

The post The Lineup: 2022 NFL Week 18 Picks appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Year to date: ATS 122-110-8, over/under 116-121-3

Cowboys (11-4) at Titans (7-8), Thursday 12/29 at 8:15 pm ET

Pick

Cowboys 24, Titans 13

ATS

Cowboys -10

Total

Under 40.5

Analysis

The Titans can run the ball, but so can the Cowboys. Dallas is hitting their stride in the passing game, too, and their defense was extremely opportunistic last week against the best team in the NFC.

It’s not often I like giving double digit points, especially on behalf of a road team, but in this case, it simply makes sense.

Cardinals (4-11) at Falcons (5-10), Sunday 1/1 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Falcons 23, Cardinals 21

ATS

Cardinals +4

Total

Over 41

Analysis

Atlanta and Arizona are two bad football teams with good pieces scattered throughout. The Falcons being at home is a help, as is the emergence of running back Tyler Allgeier. If Atlanta’s defense can contain Deandre Hopkins, I think the Falcons win this fairly easily. That said, I think the Cardinals make enough plays in the passing game to keep the final score within a field goal.

Bears (3-12) at Lions (7-8), Sunday 1/1 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Lions 28, Bears 22

ATS

Push 6

Total

Under 52

Analysis

The Lions are at home with a chance to make the playoffs, so rest assured they will come out firing on Sunday. On the flip side, I want to believe in the Bears and Justin Field, but they’ve only won 25 percent of their games thru Week 16, so there isn’t much else to say.

Chicago may cover, but I don’t see this Lions team losing at home with so much at stake.

Broncos (4-11) at Chiefs (12-3), Sunday 1/1 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Chiefs 27, Broncos 12

ATS

Chiefs -13

Total

Under 45

Analysis

Denver just fired their head coach. Usually, when a new head coach comes in, that team is unpredictable in their next game. Will they come out flat? Will they come out on fire?

However, as much as Nathaniel Hackett struggled, the problems with the Broncos didn’t just reside with the head coach. You just cannot depend on this offense to make plays. Conversely, the Chiefs offense is the most dependable offense in football, and their head coach isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.

This is a sizeable mismatch. The only way I think it’s close is if the weather becomes adverse, but the outcome shouldn’t be in doubt. Lay the points.

Dolphins (8-7) at Patriots (7-8) , Sunday 1/1 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Patriots 23, Dolphins 21

ATS

Dolphins +2.5

Total

Over 42

Analysis

This is perhaps the most even game of the weekend. Tua Tagovailoa is unlikely to play, setting up Teddy Bridgewater for a great opportunity. Get Miami into the playoffs and kicking New England out of the playoffs in Foxboro? Wow. That would be something.

The Dolphins can do this, but while New England didn’t look great last week, neither did Miami. These kinds of games at this time of year come down to who’s clutch and who makes the least mistakes.

Honestly, it’s a coin flip for me. I’ll take the points but pick the Patriots to win.

Colts (4-10-1) at Giants (8-6-1), Sunday 1/1 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Giants 24, Colts 16

ATS

Giants -5

Total

Over 39.5

Analysis

There might not be a worse team in football than the Colts. I’m so serious. The Texans are at least competitive, and the Broncos have a really good defense. Indianapolis is just clueless right now. They have a revolving door at quarterback, and while their defense has good players, they’re allowing too much to the opposition.

The one thing I will say in Indy’s defense is that last Monday night, their defensive front collapsed the pocket around Justin Herbert almost immediately on the majority of LA’s passing plays. If they can bring that heat against a lesser quarterback in Daniel Jones, the Colts will have a chance.

I think it’ll be a one possession game, and a game in which the Colts will truly fight to win. In the end, though, I can’t trust them over the Giants. I just can’t do it. They haven’t played well enough at all over the last month to inspire any kind of substantial confidence.

Saints (6-9) at Eagles (13-2), Sunday 1/1 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Eagles 30, Saints 14

ATS

Eagles -7

Total

Push 44

Analysis

If the Eagles win this week, they lock up the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The Saints are virtually eliminated from playoff contention.

Especially given how they fell apart last week against the Cowboys, I fully expect the Eagles to play near-perfect football on Sunday afternoon at home. No turnovers, four penalties or less, touchdowns on red zone possessions, etc. New Orleans is a formidable opponent, but this seems like Philadelphia’s game to lose.

Panthers (6-9) at Buccaneers (7-8), Sunday 1/1 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Buccaneers 16, Panthers 14

ATS

Panthers +3

Total

Under 39.5

Analysis

It wouldn’t surprise me if the Panthers won this game by a touchdown. The way these two teams have been playing recently, you could certainly make that argument. In their previous meeting, at Carolina, Tampa Bay lost handily, 21-3. In that game, the Buccaneers only converted 17 percent of their 3rd down attempts (currently converting at a rate of 38 percent) and didn’t score until the 4th quarter.

While I think Carolina has steadily improved since then, I don’t think the Buccaneers will be as bad as they were two months ago.

Browns (6-9) at Commanders (7-7-1), Sunday 1/1 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Commanders 20, Browns 17

ATS

Commanders -2

Total

Under 40.5

Analysis

When Washington is on the road, they’re hit or miss. When they’re playing at home, they are awfully hard to beat. Furthermore, the Commanders have playoff hopes still lingering, while the Browns are aimless at the moment, scoring a total of 33 points in their last three games.

It won’t likely be pretty, but I think the Commanders will stifle the Browns offense and make just enough plays against Cleveland’s defense to give Ron Rivera his 98th career win, which would break a tie with Hall of Famer Tom Flores for 44th all-time.

Jaguars (7-8) at Texans (2-12-1), Sunday 1/1 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Jaguars 28, Texans 13

ATS

Jaguars -4.5

Total

Under 43.5

Analysis

Though the Texans have been admirably competitive this season, the Jaguars seem to have found their groove and are closing in on—wait for it—a division championship. Jacksonville has won three in a row and four of their last five games. They’re starting to figure things out and know the opportunity that’s before them.

A win at Houston coupled with a Titans loss versus Dallas and the AFC South is Jacksonville’s to lose.

49ers (11-4) at Raiders (6-9), Sunday 1/1 at 4:05 pm ET

Pick

49ers 24, Raiders 23

ATS

Raiders +6

Total

Over 44.5

Analysis

How can you trust the Raiders in critical moments?

Jets (7-8) at Seahawks (7-8), Sunday 1/1 at 4:05 pm ET

Pick

Seahawks 21, Jets 20

ATS

Seahawks +2

Total

Under 42.5

Analysis

This matchup features a pair of outstanding rookie cornerbacks: Sauce Gardner (Jets) and Tariq Woolen (Seahawks). Both pass defenses are allowing less than 220 yards per game, which makes me think this game will be won or lost by who can run the ball more effectively.

Seattle ranks 21st in rushing yards per game, while New York ranks 24th in the same category. Okay, another relative stalemate.

How about the quarterbacks? The Jets have been an absolute mess at that position all year. On the other hand, Geno Smith has been playing really good football for the Seahawks, even after such uncertainty following the Russell Wilson trade.

Expect a close contest, but one in which the Seahawks make less mistakes than the Jets.

Vikings (12-3) at Packers (7-8), Sunday 1/1 at 4:25 pm ET

Pick

Vikings 26, Packers 19

ATS

Vikings +3.5

Total

Under 48.5

Analysis

Apparently, Vegas thinks the Vikings will rest starters this week, otherwise there’s no reason the Packers would be favored. I’m not buying it. Minnesota has clearly been the better team to this point, and I think that will continue on Sunday in Green Bay.

Rams (5-10) “at” Chargers (9-6), Sunday 1/1 at 4:25 pm ET

Pick

Chargers 24, Rams 20

ATS

Rams +6.5

Total

Over 41

Analysis

Bottom line: the Rams over-achieved last week and the Chargers slightly under-achieved in their last game. I see a regression toward the mean with the Chargers coming out on top, but only after thwarting a last-drive comeback bid from Baker and company.

Steelers (7-8) at Ravens (10-5), Sunday 1/1 at 8:20 pm ET

Pick

Ravens 19, Steelers 17

ATS

Steelers +3

Total

Push 36

Analysis

With a win, the Ravens bury the Steelers’ playoff hopes and hand Mike Tomlin his first-ever losing season.

This game was flexed to primetime for a reason. Get ready.

Happy New Year.

Bills (12-3) at Bengals (12-4), Monday 1/2 at 8:30 pm ET

Pick

Bengals 27, Bills 23

ATS

Bengals +1

Total

Over 49.5

Analysis

The Bengals are really tough. They’re beatable, of course, but something tells me they will get the best of the Bills here (as they did the Chiefs a few weeks ago). If the Bengals can start hot—which they’ve been great at doing this year—I think it’ll be especially challenging for the Bills to keep up.

Can the Bills beat the Bengals? Absolutely. Can they do so by double-digits? Yes. Do I think Buffalo is better than Cincinnati? Yes, I do. All that said, I just have a feeling the Bengals will have more tenacity than the Bills this week.

The post The Lineup: 2022 NFL Week 17 Picks appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Year to date: ATS 116-100-8, over/under 110-111-3

Jaguars (6-8) at Jets (7-7), Thursday 12/22 at 8:15 pm ET

Pick

Jets 23, Jaguars 17

ATS

Jets -1

Total

Over 39.5

Analysis

The Jaguars are a very competitive, dynamic team, but they’re not as good on the road as they are at home (2-5 away record). The Jets aren’t a juggernaut, either, but they’re solid and should be able to defend Jacksonville’s pass better than Dallas did a week ago.

Garrett Wilson could go for 150 yards receiving and a touchdown in this one.

Bills (11-3) at Bears (3-11), Saturday 12/24 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Bills 28, Bears 16

ATS

Bills -9

Total

Over 41.5

Analysis

The Bills are coming off their second close call against the Dolphins of the season. This time, though, they came away with the victory. While nine points is a lot to give, especially on the road, they’re on the short list for the AFC’s top seed. Expect nothing but the Bills’ best on Sunday.

The Bears will put up a fight, but this is a bad matchup for them. Jalen Hurts destroyed Chicago on the ground last week, and Josh Allen is every bit the runner as Hurts is. Plus, if the Bears go behind in this game, that’s all the more reason for them to throw and diverge from Justin Fields’ exceptional running production.

Saints (5-9) at Browns (6-8), Saturday 12/24 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Browns 20, Saints 13

ATS

Browns -3

Total

Over 32

Analysis

Temperatures in the mid-20’s cause you to believe this will be a run-heavy gameplan from both teams. Deshaun Watson is the obvious x-factor, as he’s still working his way back into top form. The total is incredibly low, so I’m leaning toward taking the over. As for the point spread, I like the Saints to keep it close. They have enough receiving weapons to keep Cleveland’s secondary honest.

Texans (1-12-1) at Titans (7-7), Saturday 12/24 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Titans 28, Texans 13

ATS

Titans -7

Total

Over 39.5

Analysis

Derrick Henry at home versus the team that allows the most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

I’ll take the Titans and give the points.

Seahawks (7-7) at Chiefs (11-3), Saturday 12/24 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Chiefs 35, Seahawks 28

ATS

Seahawks +10

Total

Over 49.5

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes at home is about as much of a lock as you can get in this league. When thinking about a 10-point spread, though, I advise taking the Seahawks. Seattle may be a .500 football team, but they rank 7th in the league in scoring (25.4 ppg), so they can certainly put up points.

At this stage in the season, one of the biggest factors in bets is a team’s motivation. Both teams have significant motivating factors driving them, so I fully believe they will put their best foot forward.

Giants (8-5-1) at Vikings (11-3), Saturday 12/24 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Vikings 38, Giants 35 (OT)

ATS

Giants +3.5

Total

Over 47.5

Analysis

I’ve said it before: Justin Jefferson is a legitimate MVP candidate. No one on the Giants inspires enough confidence to make me think Jefferson can be slowed down this week. The better question is: who on Minnesota besides Jefferson will be able to score points?

Dalvin Cook and T.J. Hockenson are the obvious answers, but given the strength of New York’s defensive front, that advantage for Minnesota will certainly be challenged.

I’m taking the points. I think Minnesota wins, but as great as their record is, they make it much harder on themselves than they need to. I think the Giants are good enough to capitalize on some of those opportunities and keep this game close.

Bengals (10-4) at Patriots (7-7), Saturday 12/24 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Bengals 24, Patriots 23

ATS

Patriots +3.5

Total

Over 39.5

Analysis

The Bengals seem to be the better team, and I’m predicting them to win. However, something about this game seems off. For as inconsistent as New England has been, they can really run the ball. You know the old saying: run the ball to keep their best players off the field.

It’s obviously not as simple as saying the Patriots are usually well coached, so they’ll have answers for the Bengals offense and pass rush. That said, New England has a stiff pass rush of their own, and if not for a pathetic Tampa Bay offense last week, the vibe around the Bengals would be much different.

An injured Bengals receiving core may be enough of a burden on the Bengals to prevent them from covering the spread, but I still think they win the game.

Lions (7-7) at Panthers (5-9), Saturday 12/24 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Lions 26, Panthers 17

ATS

Lions -2.5

Total

Under 44.5

Analysis

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but the Lions are turning into a good football team. I certainly like them to win and cover this week. The point total is in question, as Carolina could muddy things up just enough to hit the under.

Jared Goff is having a Pro Bowl-caliber season. Dan Campbell will be discussed as Coach of the Year. Detroit really believes. That’s a dangerous combination for the Panthers to deal with.

Falcons (5-9) at Ravens (9-5), Saturday 12/24 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Ravens 27, Falcons 21

ATS

Falcons +7.5

Total

Over 37.5

Analysis

Just win, Ravens. Just win.

Commanders (7-6-1) at 49ers (10-4), Saturday 12/24 at 4:05 pm ET

Pick

49ers 28, Commanders 19

ATS

49ers -7

Total

Over 39.5

Analysis

The Commanders lost a tough one last week at home against a division rival, a game that was not devoid of controversy. That’s never easy to come back from, especially when having to travel cross country the next week to face an NFC powerhouse. Not to mention, Brock Purdy has officially gone from serviceable to effective.

Take the Niners, give the points. It won’t be smooth, but I fully expect San Francisco to be in control for most of this matchup.

Eagles (13-1) at Cowboys (10-4), Saturday 12/24 at 4:25 pm ET

Pick

Cowboys 24, Eagles 21

ATS

Eagles +6

Total

Under 46.5

Analysis

Jalen Hurts sprained his throwing shoulder in the Eagles’ win at Chicago last week. His status for this week is in doubt. Even if he plays, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cowboys get the win. If he doesn’t play, which is what’s suggested by the current spread, Dallas would really have to screw up to lose.

Raiders (6-8) at Steelers (6-8), Saturday 12/24 at 8:15 pm ET

Pick

Steelers 19, Raiders 17

ATS

Raiders +2.5

Total

Under 39.5

Analysis

Darren Waller is back for the Raiders, who are desperately clinging to their playoff chances. If he’s fully healthy, he’s a real difference-maker for Las Vegas. Pair him with Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs, and you have the best combination of talent at three different offensive positions in the league.

The catch: Can Las Vegas protect Derek Carr? The Raiders offensive line ranks 1st in run blocking and 6th in pass blocking, so the numbers say yes, but blocking a Steelers pass rush in Pittsburgh in December is never an easy task.

On the other hand, if the Steelers lose, they’re guaranteed to have their first ever losing season under Mike Tomlin. For a game between two 6-8 teams, there’s so much to play for.

As talented as the Raiders are, the way last week’s game ended was a fluke. Las Vegas still has yet to convince me they’ve rid themselves of their late-game flaws.

This game features one of the better kicker matchups of any game this week, so expect a field goal game, either way.

Packers (6-8) at Dolphins (8-6), Sunday 12/25 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Dolphins 30, Packers 21

ATS

Dolphins -5.5

Total

Over 46.5

Analysis

Don’t think too hard about this one. Last week, Miami lost a close road game, one they feel they should’ve won, and Green Bay won a home game in which they didn’t play their best football. When there’s imbalance between a team’s result and performance, there’s usually a regression back to the mean the following week.

Tua Tagovailoa has the potential to throw for 350-plus yards this week.

Broncos (4-10) at Rams (4-10), Sunday 12/25 at 4:30 pm ET

Pick

Broncos 14, Rams 12

ATS

Broncos -1

Total

Under 35.5

Analysis

Woof.

Buccaneers (6-8) at Cardinals (4-10), Sunday 12/25 at 8:20 pm ET

Pick

Buccaneers 23, Cardinals 19

ATS

Cardinals +5.5

Total

Over 41

Analysis

Woof, part II. In all seriousness, which team looks worse right now? Hard to tell. I’m going to pick Tampa to win, as they have a direct path to a division title (somehow). Moreover, the Buccaneers defense was hung out to dry but their offense last week and takes the field against a significantly less talented offense in the Cardinals.

Chargers (8-6) at Colts (4-9-1), Monday 12/26 at 8:15 pm ET

Pick

Chargers 26, Colts 20

ATS

Chargers -4

Total

Under 47

Analysis

How can anyone believe in the Colts? Last week was beyond embarrassing. It was a reprehensible abdication of duty responsibility to team and self.

The Chargers won’t feel sorry for them, either. Take LA and give the points.

The post The Lineup: 2022 NFL Week 16 Picks appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Year to date: ATS 108-93-7, over/under 105-100-3

49ers (9-4) at Seahawks (7-6), Thursday 12/15 at 8:15 pm ET

Pick

49ers 24, Seahawks 17

ATS

49ers -3.5

Total

Under 43.5

Analysis

Expect San Francisco to win this one outright, matching Seattle step for step. The potential loss of Deebo Samuel will hurt, but the Niners should be able to overcome it. That said, Seattle’s running back core is banged up themselves, so Geno Smith will have a tall task ahead of him in attempting to break down this 49ers pass defense.

I feel like most Thursday night games—especially divisional matchups—are usually hard fought and subsequently hit the under. That’s what I’m predicting here.

Colts (4-8-1) at Vikings (10-3), Saturday 12/17 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Vikings 28, Colts 20

ATS

Vikings -4

Total

Over 47.5

Analysis

Minnesota got handled last week in Detroit, something I definitely did not see coming. This week, they play host to a poor Colts team, so logic would tell you the Vikings will bounce back.

The only chance I see the Colts having is if Minnesota’s Christian Darrisaw and Garrett Bradbury miss this week like they did last week. Those two offensive linemen are key to the Vikings’ plans. If they are up, I think it’s at least a touchdown victory for the Vikings. Quite frankly, the Colts don’t have the horses to beat the Vikings in a shootout.

Ravens (9-4) at Browns (5-8), Saturday 12/17 at 4:30 pm ET

Pick

Ravens 23, Browns 20

ATS

Ravens +2.5

Total

Over 37.5

Analysis

The Ravens are the better team. If Roquan Smith was still on the Bears, I’d have significantly less confidence in this pick. However, Smith is a Raven and has been playing lights out since his debut in New Orleans. Marcus Williams returned last week, and to no one’s surprise, made an interception. Williams has now forced four interceptions in six games this year.

In Week 7, Baltimore beat Cleveland by this same score (23-20). Jacoby Brissett was the Browns’ quarterback then. Even though Deshaun Watson is under center now, the Browns’ identity is still centered around Nick Chubb and the running game. If the Ravens can stop that, which I think they will, they should be able to win their 10th game of the year for the 9th time under John Harbaugh.

Dolphins (8-5) at Bills (10-3), Saturday 12/17 at 4:30 pm ET

Pick

Dolphins 21, Bills 20

ATS

Dolphins +7.5

Total

Under 43.5

Analysis

All the way back in Week 3, Miami hosted Buffalo and came away victorious by a final score of 21-19. The Dolphins were dominated in total yardage, 497-212, yet they made the plays that mattered. Miami had the ball for less than 20 minutes on offense, gave up 380 yards passing on defense, but still won the game.

Since then, Miami gained the services of defensive end Bradley Chubb to fortify their pass rush. On the flip side, Buffalo has won eight of their last 10 games since that loss in Miami.

Everything to me points to a game decided by three points or less. I don’t necessarily have confidence Miami will win outright, but I definitely think 7 1/2 points is too much not to take.

Eagles (12-1) at Bears (3-10), Sunday 12/18 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Eagles 38, Bears 10

ATS

Eagles -9

Total

Under 48.5

Analysis

Philly is absolutely rolling. There’s no reason to think they get tripped up this week. They’ve already clinched a playoff spot and are now very much in pursuit of the NFC’s top seed. Chicago, conversely, is eliminated from playoff contention.

Falcons (5-8) at Saints (4-9), Sunday 12/18 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Falcons 27, Saints 23

ATS

Falcons +4

Total

Over 43

Analysis

This game features a matchup of two football teams that are average at best. Both teams are coming off a bye in Week 14 after which they lost a one-possession game in Week 13. The Falcons have made a switch at quarterback, from Marcus Mariota to rookie Desmond Ritter. This is the typical “what do you have to lose” situation. Given the fact rookie wide receiver Drake London was beginning to peak before the bye, I have to imagine the Falcons will be in good rhythm heading into this week.

All things considered the Saints might be the worst team in football. Take the Falcons and the points.

Lions (6-7) at Jets (7-6), Sunday 12/18 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Lions 31, Jets 21

ATS

Lions PK

Total

Over 45

Analysis

I mean, the Lions are kind of good. They’re thinking “playoffs,” while the Jets, playing in the only division where each team has a positive point differential, is thinking “survive.”

Steelers (5-8) at Panthers (5-8), Sunday 12/18 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Steelers 19, Panthers 17

ATS

Steelers +2.5

Total

Under 38.5

Analysis

You know what’s coming. The Steelers as an underdog means I’m taking the points. Though the Ravens made the Steelers look poor last week, Pittsburgh is a prideful bunch. Carolina is performing better now than they were in the beginning of the year, but I think the experience of the Steelers is the x-factor here.

Cowboys (10-3) at Jaguars (5-8), Sunday 12/18 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Cowboys 28, Jaguars 17

ATS

Cowboys -5

Total

Under 47.5

Analysis

Dallas is on a mission and is looking to compete for the NFC’s top seed. Conversely, I’m not sure Jacksonville can sustain their momentum much longer. Five is a strange number for a point spread, so I’m more tentative on this game than others. That said, the Cowboys are the better team that I think wins by at least a touchdown.

Chiefs (10-3) at Texans (1-11-1), Sunday 12/18 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Chiefs 35, Texans 13

ATS

Chiefs -14

Total

Under 49

Analysis

I would be shocked if Patrick Mahomes throws multiple interceptions again this week. Even though the Chiefs won in Week 14, they left a lot of plays on the field. Expect a motivated group this week in Houston.

Cardinals (4-9) at Broncos (3-10), Sunday 12/18 at 4:05 pm ET

Pick

Broncos 17, Cardinals 6

ATS

Broncos -3

Total

Under 36.5

Analysis

How badly is Kyler Murray hurt? It was announced Tuesday afternoon that he tore his ACL and is out for the remainder of the season. How Colt McCoy can execute the Arizona offense will go a long way in determining the outcome of this game. I’m definitely taking the under, but as for picking against the spread, I will (reluctantly) go with the Broncos as they’re at home and their defense is playing great football.

Patriots (7-6) at Raiders (5-8), Sunday 12/18 at 4:05 pm ET

Pick

Patriots 24, Raiders 21

ATS

Patriots PK

Total

Over 44.5

Analysis

Can the Patriots stop (or even slow down) Josh Jacobs? I think they can hold him to 80 rushing yards or less, but I don’t have much faith in the Raiders holding a lead these days               .

Take the Patriots but do so cautiously. Take Belichick over McDaniels.

Titans (7-6) at Chargers (7-6), Sunday 12/18 at 4:25 pm ET

Pick

Chargers 31, Titans 21

ATS

Chargers -3

Total

Over 46

Analysis

Los Angeles took care of the Dolphins last week, and now face another hard-nosed squad this week when they host the Titans. I feel like the Chargers will be ahead throughout, but a late score will make the final look more lopsided than the game actually was.

I have no idea how the Titans will defend Mike Williams or Austin Ekeler. Put simply, the Chargers have more options—on both sides of the ball—than the Titans do.

Bengals (9-4) at Buccaneers (6-7), Sunday 12/18 at 4:25 pm ET

Pick

Bengals 27, Buccaneers 20

ATS

Bengals -3.5

Total

Over 42

Analysis

Look how far the Buccaneers have fallen. They look pitiful. The Bengals, however, are clearly trending upward and cruised past a stretch of games where they were without Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Nixon. Not an easy task, to say the least. Take the Bengals, give the points, and don’t look back.

Giants (7-5-1) at Commanders (7-5-1), Sunday 12/18 at 8:20 pm ET

Pick

Giants 23, Commanders 20

ATS

Giants +4.5

Total

Over 40

Analysis

Giants win by a field goal. I just feel like they have a more in the tank than the Commanders do. When push comes to shove, I like Saquon Barkley to make the difference. Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel are a problem to defend, so the Giants will need to play excellent defense this week. They currently rank 17th, so there’s plenty of ambiguity surrounding this matchup.

Two weeks ago, these teams tied, 20-20, in New York. Obviously, not much has changed. The fact that the Giants are getting 4 1/2 points here seals it for me. Moreover, New York is the 2nd-best team in the league in terms of percentage of games without an interception thrown. In other words, there’s an overwhelming chance the Giants don’t throw an interception this week.

Take the Giants and the points.

Rams (4-9) at Packers (5-8), Monday 12/19 at 8:15 pm ET

Pick

Rams 24, Packers 19

ATS

Rams +7.5

Total

Over 40

Analysis

There is no way the Packers should be favored. They are a mess. I know the Rams have had a disappointing season to say the least, but last week showed you just how much they’re capable of. I have much more confidence in their coaching staff and roster than I do in the Packers staff and roster.

Think about how many key players the Rams lost recently and consider how they responded last week. Now, think about how the Packers rank 23rd, 21st, and 30th in scoring offense, scoring defense, and special teams (respectively).

I’m iffy on the point total, but not the spread. Los Angeles is one of my Top 5 strongest plays of the week.

The post The Lineup: 2022 NFL Week 15 Picks appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Year to date: 79-64-7, 74-73-3 over/under

Titans (6-3) at Packers (4-6), Thursday 11/17 at 8:15 pm ET

Pick: Titans +3

ATS: Titans 20, Packers 17

Total: Under 41.5

Analysis: The Titans may be my least-favorite team in the league, but they are good. You can’t be as one-dimensional as they are and have six wins without being good. The Packers had a gritty come from behind victory last week against the Cowboys, but they needed a lot to go right for that to happen.

I think the Titans should win this game and will definitely take the points.

Bears (3-7) at Falcons (4-6), Sunday 11/20 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick: Falcons 24, Bears 20

ATS: Falcons -3

Total: Under 50.5

Analysis: This game is really a toss-up. Both teams have been very competitive but have found more ways to lose than to win. Both teams have even turnover margins. The obvious x-factor is Bears quarterback Justin Fields. He’s playing amazing right now, but can he continue his good form for the third consecutive game?

I think Fields sees a slight regression but has the Bears in place for a game-winning score on their final drive. I’m giving the advantage to the home team in this one but would reverse my prediction if this game was being played in Chicago.

Browns (3-6) at Bills (6-3), Sunday 11/20 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick: Bills 28, Browns 13

ATS: Bills -9.5

Total: Under 47

Analysis: How brutal was that Bills loss last Sunday? All of a sudden, the Bills are the hunted rather than the hunter. You better believe they’re going to be laser-focused on Sunday, so as not to slip any further in an ever-tightening AFC playoff race.

Eagles (8-1) at Colts (4-5-1), Sunday 11/20 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick: Eagles 40, Colts 7

ATS: Eagles -7.5

Total: Over 44.5

Analysis:

After losing their first game of the season, I fully expect the Eagles to bounce back against a Colts team that will surely come back to earth. The Colts beat a bad team last week in their first game being coached by Jeff Saturday, but the Eagles are an entirely different animal.

Davante Adams caught nine passes for 126 yards and a touchdown against the Colts last week. Expect A.J. Brown to have a similar outing (especially after a shocking one catch for seven yard performance on Monday night).

Jets (6-3) at Patriots (5-4), Sunday 11/20 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick: Patriots 23, Jets 21

ATS: Jets +3.5

Total: Over 38.5

Analysis:

Huge game in the AFC East. Both teams coming off a bye. Both teams will try to establish the run and the play action pass. The Jets being underdogs even though they have a better record isn’t all that big of a surprise, but it’s enough for me to take the points.

Sauce Gardner has proven himself as a premier cornerback even as a rookie. New England is ranked 23rd in passing yards per game—not great—so it seems like if New York can contain all-purpose running back Rhamondre Stevenson, they should have a good chance to win.

Stevenson is one of those backs that’s challenging to step, even though defenses know he will get a high volume of touches. I think New England wins a close one, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jets gets revenge from their 5-point loss to this same team just two weeks ago.

Rams (3-6) at Saints (3-7), Sunday 11/20 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick: Saints 24, Rams 17

ATS: Saints -3.5

Total: Over 39.5

Analysis: Cooper Kupp and possibly Matthew Stafford are going to miss the game. The Rams rank last in rushing yards per game and tied for 23rd in rushing touchdowns per game.

If they can’t pass or run, in the Superdome, I see no way they win. Never say never, I suppose, but I’m confident laying the 3 1/2 points here.

Lions (3-6) at Giants (7-2), Sunday 11/20 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick: Giants 27, Lions 19

ATS: Giants -3

Total: Under 46.5

Analysis:

New York is in a good spot, coming off a bye, hosting Detroit. The Lions are no pushover, but the Giants should be able to make plenty of plays against the last-ranked scoring defense in football (29.3 points allowed per game).

If and when the Lions go behind in this game, they will have to decipher the pressures of Wink Martindale. Good luck, Jared Goff.

I see this as one of those games that stays fairly close throughout but is never really in doubt.

Panthers (3-7) at Ravens (6-3), Sunday 11/20 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick: Ravens 35, Panthers 9

ATS: Ravens -12.5

Total: Over 43.5

Analysis:

Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 11-3 after a bye. The Panthers are going with Baker Mayfield at quarterback.

Sometimes games with big spreads are closer than expected. I don’t think this is one of those games. Especially given the facts the Baltimore’s defense gets healthier each week and Mark Andrews could return, I recommend taking the Ravens and laying the points with confidence.

Commanders (5-5) at Texans (1-7-1), Sunday 11/20 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick: Commanders 31, Texans 21

ATS: Commanders -3

Total: Over 40.5

Analysis:

Washington is coming off a huge road division win in primetime. Nothing like it for a team’s confidence. The only thing I worry about is a letdown, as they now head on the road to an out of conference team—the NFL’s worst.

The Texans have just not been able to put together a top-to-bottom, full game performance this season—one that inspires confidence. The Commanders, on the other hand, are certainly beatable.

This should be closer than many people think, but I’m predicting a late Houston turnover and subsequent Washington score to extend the winning margin to two scores.

Raiders (2-7) at Broncos (3-6), Sunday 11/20 at 4:05 pm ET

Pick: Broncos 16, Raiders 12

ATS: Broncos -2.5

Total: Under 41.5

Analysis: Talk about unfulfilled expectations. Both of teams have so much talent (or so we thought), but they’ve underperformed to say the least. To be a combined 5-13 at the midway point of the season is shocking.

That said, one of these teams has to win (or tie, I suppose). As for the specific matchup, Denver’s defense is strong. Really strong. Las Vegas was running the ball well earlier in the year but have really fallen off as of late. Their season rushing yards per game average is 106.6, but they’ve only averaged 62.2 rushing yards per game in their last three games. That plays right into the hands of Denver’s gameplan.

The Raiders aren’t hopeless by any stretch, but they certainly have an uphill battle ahead of the team. The one area of the game they could flip the script is the turnover battle. The Raiders are tied for the league lead in least turnovers committed (7). If they can maintain that discipline, they’ll keep this game close. At that point, it may only take a Davante Adams jump ball to win the game.

All in all, this should be a very intriguing game. I’m going to lay the points, but in no way do I consider this game to be a lock for the Broncos.

Cowboys (6-3) at Vikings (8-1), Sunday 11/20 at 4:25 pm ET

Pick: Vikings 27, Cowboys 21

ATS: Vikings +1.5

Total: Over 47.5

Analysis: Justin Jefferson is the best receiver in football and a Top 5 MVP candidate in the NFL. The Vikings are tied for the best record in the NFL and have thoroughly developed a collective resilience that will pay massive dividends (as we’ve already seen).

Dallas is a good team, obviously. The question is: which road version of the Cowboys will we see this Sunday? They’ve lost their previous two road games, but before that, won six in a row away from home.

Even though both teams are coming off of overtime games, they may be in store for an encore this weekend. For betting purposes, take the Vikings. If you feel inclined to bet the money line, take the Vikings as well. Just be ready for another game that comes down to the wire.

Bengals (5-4) at Steelers (3-6), Sunday 11/20 at 4:25 pm ET

Pick: Bengals 20, Steelers 16

ATS: Bengals -4.5

Total: Under 41.5

Analysis: T.J. Watt’s return brought immediate impact to the Steelers. Beating the Saints wasn’t easy, but it kept alive any hope Pittsburgh has of a playoff run. With Ja’Marr Chase still unavailable for Cincinnati, the Steelers have a semblance of hope to continue their winning ways.

No matter how I look at this game, I see a 4-point (or less) final score. As much as I’d like to see the rest of the AFC North beat themselves, I feel like Joe Mixon, in particular, will be too much for the Steelers to withstand.

Chiefs (7-2) at Chargers (5-4), Sunday 11/20 at 8:20 pm ET

Pick: Chiefs 30, Chargers 28

ATS: Chargers +6.5

Total: Over 50

Analysis: Patrick Mahomes is playing the quarterback position as good as prime Tom Brady. Home, road, close games, blowouts…I just don’t know how you stop him.

I’m going to take the Chargers and the points here, but reluctantly. Los Angeles has been inconsistent to say the least, but they are nothing if not aggressive, and in rivalry games, you absolutely cannot be passive.

Even at 5-4, the Chargers could lose this game and remain in the playoff hunt. Therefore, that desperation at home is lacking, in my opinion, giving the advantage firmly to the Chiefs.

49ers (5-4) at Cardinals (4-6), Monday 11/21 at 8:15 pm ET

Pick: 49ers 26, Cardinals 23

ATS: Cardinals +8

Total: Over 43.5

Analysis: Losing Zach Ertz is a big blow for a Cardinals team that was just starting to turn the corner. It’s hard to tell how much that will affect their gameplan, but with their offensive injuries piling up, there’s only so much one team can overcome. On the flip side, the 49ers have left plenty of plays on the field this year themselves. They need to be more consistent, now, if they want to position themselves for a lengthy postseason.

I can’t believe the spread is this high, but I will certainly take the points. Christian McCaffrey versus Isaiah Simmons will be such a fun matchup to watch. This should be a solid way to end Week 11.

The post The Lineup: 2022 NFL Week 11 Picks appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Year to date: 71-58-7 ATS, 68-65-3 over/under

Falcons (4-5) at Panthers (2-7), Thursday 11/10 at 8:15 pm ET

Pick

Falcons 28, Panthers 21

ATS

Falcons -3

Total

Over 43.5

Analysis

It feels like Atlanta is one of those teams that will be competitive in every game they play this year. Home, away, day, night, whatever…it feels like they’ll always be in it.

Carolina, however, feels like a team that will show flashes every now and then, but as currently constructed, can’t be counted on to consistently perform.

The Falcons being a road favorite when the records aren’t a whole lot different is important to note. Especially as the second half of the season begins, having endured close games (regardless if you win them or not) is extremely valuable. I give the nod to Atlanta in this one by a touchdown.

Seahawks (6-3) at Buccaneers (4-5), Sunday 11/13 at 9:30 am ET

Pick

Seahawks 27, Buccaneers 22

ATS

Seahawks +2.5

Total

Over 44.5

Analysis

I’ll keep saying it—Seattle is for real and Pete Carroll, as of now, is my Coach of the Year. They’re tied for 4th in the league in takeaways (15), and linebacker Jordyn Brooks leads the NFL in tackles (90). Seattle is unquestionably playing cleaner football than Tampa Bay right now, and even though the Buccaneers are at home, I don’t think it’ll matter much.

What used to be a vaunted Tampa Bay run defense is now ranked 23rd in the league. Bad news: Kenneth Walker III is coming to town. Walker is a leading candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year, even though he’s only started the last four games. In those four games, the Seahawks are 4-0 and he’s averaged 106.0 yards rushing per game to go along with six rushing touchdowns.

The Bucs are going to be in a tough spot on Sunday.

Vikings (7-1) at Bills (6-2), Sunday 11/13 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Vikings 19, Bills 17

ATS

Vikings +4

Total

Under 44.5

Analysis

Two heavyweights face off in an inter-conference showdown worthy of primetime. You could easily make a case for either team to win, but I’m going to go with the Vikings here. The addition of T.J. Hockenson really completed their offense, and safety Harrison Smith showed last week he hasn’t lost a step. Buffalo is a major threat, sure, but the doubt surrounding Josh Allen’s health triggers concern.

Lions (2-6) at Bears (3-6), Sunday 11/13 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Bears 24, Lions 16

ATS

Bears -3

Total

Under 48.5

Analysis

Has Justin Fields finally found his rhythm? Last week he set an all-time record for rushing yards by a quarterback in a single game, and this week he faces the league’s worst defense at home. Even if there’s some regression, you have to think he’s still locked in. This spread could be double what it is now, and I’d still lay the points.

Broncos (3-5) at Titans (5-3), Sunday 11/13 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Titans 19, Broncos 17

ATS

Broncos +3

Total

Under 38.5

Analysis

A battle of two underwhelming teams. Denver’s defense is very good but their offense kind of makes you uncomfortable when watching it. You keep waiting for something to click and Denver’s offense to take off, but it just isn’t. Tennessee quarterback Malik Willis has looked good so far in limited action, but again, you’re waiting for someone else to take charge (besides Derrick Henry).

Losing Bradley Chubb will undoubtedly hurt the Bronco’s chances, but that is somewhat mitigated by the fact the Titans are not a passing team by any stretch (ranked 31st in the league).

In somewhat of an upset, I’m taking the Broncos and the points in this one.

Jaguars (3-6) at Chiefs (6-2), Sunday 11/13 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Chiefs 35, Jaguars 17

ATS

Chiefs -9.5

Total

Over 50.5

Analysis

Not much needs to be said here. Mahomes and company went off last Sunday night, and the Jaguars rank 25th in sacks per game. If Mahomes is  upright, it might be goodnight for Jacksonville.

Browns (3-5) at Dolphins (6-3), Sunday 11/13 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Browns 24, Dolphins 21

ATS

Browns +3.5

Total

Under 48.5

Analysis

This should be a very entertaining game. The Browns run despite people knowing they will. The Dolphins pass despite people knowing they will. Both offenses run smoothly despite the opposition being keyed in on their gameplan.

Usually, I can quantify an instinct I have, but not here. For some reason, I think the Browns are due. I guess I am putting stock into the fact that two teams like this that are pretty similar shouldn’t be separated as much as they are in the standings. In other words, the NFL is built for parity, and I think the Dolphins regress to the mean in this game. I’m picking the Browns to win this game outright.

Texans (1-6-1) at Giants (6-2), Sunday 11/13 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Giants 27, Texans 20

ATS

Giants -6.5

Total

Over 40.5

Analysis

Like the Kansas City/Jacksonville game, I don’t see a way the Texans stay competitive throughout this matchup, especially given the status of Houston running back Dameon Pierce. The Giants have played in a lot of close games, but I think they score a touchdown late to hit the over and put the Texans away, courtesy of Saquon Barkley.

Saints (3-6) at Steelers (2-6), Sunday 11/13 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Steelers 23, Saints 14

ATS

Steelers +2.5

Total

Under 40.5

Analysis

The Steelers off a bye, at home, with their season on the line, and potentially getting T.J. Watt back into the mix? And they’re getting points? And the Ravens just showed how to completely take apart the Saints?

I’m almost shocked the Saints are favored. Take the points and run.

Colts (3-5-1) at Raiders (2-6), Sunday 11/13 at 4:05 pm ET

Pick

Raiders 28, Colts 26

ATS

Colts +6

Total

Over 42.5

Analysis

Two bad football teams. Take the points, I guess.

In all honesty, it can’t get much worse for the Colts, so I’m taking a shot in the dark that the new head coach will infuse energy into the team. I don’t think they can outscore the Raiders as they’re currently constructed, but six points is too much not to take.

Cowboys (6-2) at Packers (3-6), Sunday 11/13 at 4:25 pm ET

Pick

Cowboys 27, Packers 21

ATS

Cowboys -5

Total

Over 42.5

Analysis

How wild is it that you can trust the Cowboys in clutch situations more than you can trust the Packers?

Five points feels about right to me. With Dallas coming off a bye and Green Bay coming off a horrible loss to Detroit, this is setting up for a pretty comprehensive Dallas victory on Sunday afternoon.

Cardinals (3-6) at Rams (3-5), Sunday 11/13 at 4:25 pm ET

Pick

Rams 25, Cardinals 23

ATS

Cardinals +3

Total

Over 43.5

Analysis

This is probably the most confusing game of the entire week to pick. Both teams could score 40 points or more. Both teams could score 17 or less.

I like the Rams to be less mistake-prone and more composed when situations get tight. The fact that Los Angeles is struggling so much to run the ball doesn’t matter so much to me, because it just makes things easier for Sean McVay.

As for Arizona, I just can’t take them seriously.

Chargers (5-3) at 49ers (4-4), Sunday 11/13 at 8:20 pm ET

Pick

49ers 28, Chargers 20

ATS

49ers -7

Total

Over 45.5

Analysis

The 49ers will enter this game coming off a bye, and Christian McCaffrey has had a couple more weeks to get integrated into San Francisco’s offensive system.

If Keenan Allen were healthy, I’d consider picking the Chargers, but as good as Austin Ekeler is, the fact he’s likely to be overloaded with touches concerns me—especially given the prowess of San Francisco defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans.

This should be a great game. Either team could win. While seven points is a lot, I think the Niners are the more complete team at this stage of the season.

Commanders (4-5) at Eagles (8-0), Monday 11/14 at 8:15 pm ET

Pick

Commanders 21, Eagles 17

ATS

Commanders +10.5

Total

Under 43.5

Analysis

My upset of the week.

A divisional game is traditionally one where records are less an indicator of an outcome than usual. Therefore, you’re looking for x-factors. Game changers. Look no further than Commanders defensive end Chase Young. He’s been practicing for the last week and there’s been no reports of any hiccups in his recovery.

Similar to the reasoning used in the Browns/Dolphins game, the NFL has a way of pulling teams back to the pack just when they’ve hit their stride.

Add that to the fact that this series has been closely contested in recent years:

In 2019, the Eagles swept the series, winning by a combined 15 points.

In 2020, the Commanders swept the series, winning by a combined 16 points.

In 2021, the Eagles swept the series, winning by a combined 14 points.

This year, the Commanders lost to the Eagles, 24-8, in Washington. That was when Carson Wentz was under center. Now, the team has an entirely different feel to it.

They know that while this is far from their last chance to make a playoff bid, it’s their best chance to put the rest of the conference on notice. I would not be surprised if the Eagles just ran out of gas for one night and dropped one to the Commanders.

The post The Lineup: 2022 NFL Week 10 Picks appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.